JackpotRod

I'll get you an odds on shots beaten, but also give you some long odds winners with hopefully some insightful reasoning to help you to decide whether to follow me in or not. Back all my own selections with my own cash.

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JackpotRod's Tips History

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13 June 2024
17:05 5:05 Newbury

Ormolulu

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

Reappeared with a fair effort on first tun since September when behind a couple of these. She completely missed the break, giving up lengths at the start, and given that start, it was to her credit that she was still staying on late on to make up all but 4 of the 10+ lengths she gave them. She's made all in the past, so it's not without question that she can be able to do that here in a race that has no obvious pace angle. Quick ground is no bother, with her only turf win coming on GF in a first time hood. That stays on here, and if she can step forward for what was otherwise a sound reappearance and get away on terms, I think she can get competitive in what is an open race.
16:30 4:30 Newbury

Game Set

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

You have to have a general respect for any Owen Burrows horse, and particularly here where he is 10 from 45 in the last 5 years, 24/45 a place. This horse looks interesting back to a quicker surface, albeit this will be the quickest he has faced. A debut win on Good, GF in places, at Doncaster reads well for this mark of 84 when dispatching horses now rated 91 and 89, and giving weight to the 91 rated horse too. His handicap debut and reappearance didn’t quite work out up in trip, but he was bang there at the furlong pole if under plenty of pressure, so the step back a furlong is no negative. I expect he’ll be ridden to lead with a genuine lack of pace on here, and with the right fractions I think he can go well in spite of his high draw not being ideal.
14:20 2:20 Newbury

Invited

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Win

175

I think a chance can be taken on a bigger price in the shape of Invited at the odds available. Bred to be speedy, he's out of a half sibling to Caravaggio. Stall 1 is never ideal for one on debut, but overall Hannons record with first time out 2yo's here in the last 5 years is better than his recent form overall. 5 from 85 the last year, but over the last 5 years he is 9 from 73 here, with 23 of those 73 placed which betters his 1, 2 and 5 year form for placed 2yo's first time out. So with effectively a 1 in 3 chance of the horse placing based on that 5 year look back, I'm happy to take a chance about a horse that is 40/1, and who has an entry in the Weatherby's 2yo stakes.
11 June 2024
17:07 5:07 Salisbury

Miss Bielsa

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@15.00

Lose

-50

The Crisfords are 5/9 a place with handicappers at Salisbury in the last 5 years, and have some strong numbers when sending horses handicapping for the first time in general This horse is doing just that, and whilst a mark of 78 doesn’t look particularly kind, the step back in trip should see this horse in a better light. Her draw isn’t particularly kind, and a lack of pace concerns overall, but she didn’t break particularly well last time and had to sweep the field wide as a result. She travelled well into the race before seeing a 90 rated horse runaway with it. I don’t think that’s a disgrace given the start she had, so with a better start here and laying up a bit closer I think she can go well.
1 member found this comment useful
15:37 3:37 Salisbury

Melisende

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.00

Lose

-50

Small interest in Melisende who could improve for the return to better ground. A solid 4th behind 107 rated Pretty Crystal on GF suggests as much, as does a decent 2nd on reappearance off 1lb higher than this mark.k. She was held subsequently at Kempton, but was very tenderly handled when getting a wide trip. I think she's probably better than that, and with a couple of class 5 entries in the offing she could be better than this grade. Shoemark being on is a positive, with him being 5 from 12 for Amy Murphy in the last year.
1 member found this comment useful
08 June 2024
16:45 4:45 Haydock

Secret Guest

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Secret Guest has built up an interesting track record on Good or better, so the drying ground is a plus. 311308313 on the surface has him 6/9 a place on it. Given two previous efforts on soft/Heavy resulted in two 8th placed finishes, you can almost mark up his last run when a close 3rd on soft ground. A peak RPR two starts ago on GF ground reads well given he’ll get a 4lb swing with Tinto who is a few points shorter here albeit neither particularly well fancied. This horse has an overall consistent profile, and whilst I’m slightly concerned about Radio Goo Goo getting a soft lead, this horse has been ridden forward in the past, and does saddle less than he’s been saddling in general in this harder race which can help him see it out. He does have a Wokingham entry, and whilst he’ll have to go some to get into that it does give you some sort of indication of the regard in which he is held.
1 member found this comment useful
15:35 3:35 Haydock

Quinault

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

This looks a pretty open Group 3, with doubts about almost every horse coming into the race. I ended up feeling like Quinault could have been placed quite nicely here off a prep run, and with a Group 1 entry in the offing he is clearly held in higher regard than he’s perhaps had a chance to show. It is his first venture into this sort of company so he does have a bit to find being the lowest rated in here, but that also means he’s relatively unexposed as a result. He was slowly away and probably drawn on the wrong side at Newmarket when first up for the season, as he had to attempt to cut his own running down the middle. Nothing really worked out there but he did fair best of the three that went down the middle, and drawn 3 here alongside an obvious pace angle can see him in better contention in what won’t be a split group.
1 member found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Beverley

Havana White

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

This one has an interesting sales profile, going for 12k gns as a foal, up to 38k Euros as a yearling, and then 180k gns as a 2yo so you would expect she’s shown some sort of progression. I’m not convinced there’s a real high standard been set so far by those with a run (Last years winner set a debut RPR of 88 for example, and the highest in here is 77). By Havana Grey, the stallion has an enviable record of 8 from 18 record over Course and Distance, including the winner of this in 2022, and is 6/12 on GF ground here. Drying ground is in the offing so that’s a plus on that evidence, and she also gets a few lbs as a bonus. A high draw is perhaps not ideal, but she’s drawn around a front running angle so hopefully that can drag her into things.
1 member found this comment useful
01 June 2024
16:30 4:30 Epsom Downs

Voyage

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

Couldn’t have been much more impressive when learning on the job on debut. Similar to Mojo Star for Hannon who finished 2nd in this, he comes into this off just 1 run. So inexperience could be his downfall, but he looks a good galloping type that could appreciate this track. The form of his win doesn’t read particularly well, but he won with any amount in hand seemingly and looked a class above the rest swinging for home, and with a step forward in what looks an invariably open race I think he’s one of the most interesting horses in the race. His stall is a huge negative drawn widest, but I was out off Adayar in stall 1 when he won it a few years back so I’m minded to ignore it. The race lacks an obvious front runner even if one of Aiden’s takes it on, and I wonder if Dobbs might take this horse forward and take his chances on his staying power.
1 member found this comment useful
15:10 3:10 Epsom Downs

Doctor Vuby

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

No runs on turf so needs to prove that, but a 2nd giving 7lbs to Ziggys Missile who reopposes here on 21lbs worse terms suggests he could be well handicapped. He was also a few lengths behind a now 74 rated horse giving away 10lbs, and being rated 74 himself only adds to that case. He’s been off a few months, and wind surgery could help find some improvement as well, and somewhat interestingly he remains an entire as well. He’s bred to get further, so if he can get away well which hasn’t always been the case, I’d hope he’d be staying on off a relative feather weight 8st7lbs given he hasn’t saddled lest than 9st4lbs so far.
1 member found this comment useful
14:35 2:35 Epsom Downs

Sean

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@12.00

Lose

-50

Not a great deal between these on official ratings makes it tricky, and the market speaks to that with horses split between 4/1 and 12/1 at the time of writing. Sean looked to bring some decent form to the table to me for his first run on these shores. He did beat Highland Avenue two starts back off level weights, and gets a few lbs from that horse who runs off a penalty here. Drying ground is in his favour, and whilst he could be up against it against improving 4yo’s I do think he’s got a race like this in his locker if matching his best efforts. Being dropped in off a lack of obvious pace is a risk, but he seems to possess a turn of foot which could bode well in a tactical affair.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 2:00 Epsom Downs

Glimpsed

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Running Lion kind of makes the market in here and he could well get home this time, but he hardly looks completely reliable with 1 win from 6 in stakes company. I felt Glimpsed was worth a small play at the odds despite having plenty to find on ratings. She completely missed the break at York, and ended up finishing off well on seasonal debut looking strong at the finish. She’s going to want to be sharper at the start this time round, but the additional yardage looks a plus here given the way she finished her race. A 3yo against elders, she gets a 12lb allowance added to the mix, and whilst younger horses don’t have the best record overturning rivals in this race, I still think she can go well for last years winning trainer.
1 member found this comment useful
31 May 2024
16:30 4:30 Epsom Downs

Treasure

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Somewhat surprising to see Ryan Moore not on Rubies Are Red, but who is to argue that. In some ways it puts you off both O’Brien horses although Ylang Ylang looks clearly of interest with Moore on and stamina in her pedigree. It was Treasure that interested me though, with a 2nd string jockey on to boot. I like James Doyle in these races though, so no bother there, and the return to some dig in the ground can see this horse in a better light. She seemed to just take a blow late on when ranging up nicely into the race chasing home the runaway leader, and perhaps with that run under her belt she can be seen to better effect here (2 horses that beat her cam into that with a run). Stamina is a potential question mark on breeding, but I’m happy to take a chance that she’ll stay better this time round in worse ground. She dug in nicely in heavy going on debut, so it could provide the desired improvement to get her competitive in a race I always find tricky.
1 member found this comment useful
15:10 3:10 Epsom Downs

Hamish

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Old boy of the field, and sits as a big priced outsider in this small field. He’ll get his conditions though, and surely looks overpriced and likely to run his race. Perhaps his price suggests he isn’t going to run, but I do feel if he does he can go well. A want, or at least ability, for further can bode well in what can be more of a test of stamina than it appears here. 1121 when running 2nd time up, he has such a consistent profile, and having never been sent off bigger than 9/1 his price just looks a bit of a madness despite his age.
1 member found this comment useful
14:35 2:35 Epsom Downs

Benacre

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Fair cases for plenty, but I’ve always liked Benacre despite a relatively poor strike rate. He brings a 2/2 record at Epsom as a 2yo, which almost in itself warrants him being a shorter price. He threatened to make hay in listed company as a 3yo before not kicking on, and drops to a mark of 91 now. He’s one of two pace angles, and looks likeliest to get the tail from his draw than Autumn festival out in 12, and with it not being full of pace he could end up being hard to peg back with a repeat of his effort over this trip first time up for the season.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 2:00 Epsom Downs

End Of Story

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-50

No obvious standout superstar for me but it’s competitive as a result, and a relatively rare Epsom foray for Kevin Ryan interested me with his horse beating a subsequent winner lastTime on debut. He looked to have plenty more in the tank that day, coming away well to assert late on. Like many of these he’ll improve for the step up in trip. Drawn ok in 5, he should get a good spot if wanting to maintain front running tactics. A seeming tendency to edge left late on is interesting at this track if he can get a good position and if he does get forward he should hold the rail if he can get to there.
1 member found this comment useful
19 May 2024
18:15 6:15 Newmarket

Glamorous Breeze

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@8.00

Lose

-50

Eye catching record on GF, in particular in recent times, so must have a good chance if taking to the track and if the ground is genuinely GF. 51232312111 on the surface, she's matched a peak RPR on GS at Ascot last time when not quite getting home off a big weight. Back up in class she gets a lesser weight burden, and a class 3 record of 231 reads nicely for her to go well. She's 1lb higher than her last winning mark, and, going 3rd time up here, she won 3rd time up last season. Biggest concern would be her want for the track as she hasn't run here, and whilst her full sister did post a 7th of 9 here, that was in a Group 3 in which she was far from disgraced.
17:15 5:15 Newmarket

Flying Secret

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.00

Lose

-50

Won 2nd time up following an AW run last season, and posted a peak RPR here last season when staying on off top weight over a furlong shy of this. Has won and placed on 2/3 starts on GF ground. You can write off his reappearance effort when coming from way back having been dropped in from a wide draw and running into the back of horses. He ran on well there, and 2lbs below his last winning mark back to a more suitable trip, he can be in the mix.
18 May 2024
16:10 4:10 Newbury

Under The Twilight

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@15.00

Lose

-50

Last run has taken some boosts with 4 of the top 6 winning or placing since, so she could go well off the back of that career high RPR. The main concern to her chances are being dropped in off a lack of pace, but she does sit close to the top of the speed ratings here and did place from midfield over course and distance earlier in her career. She’s got something to prove nudged up to this class, but that does ease her weight carry from 9st10lbs down to 8st11. It could be a lack of pace allows her to sit a little closer to it, and overall I think she’s a good price, especially if she can improve for the seasonal reappearance. A 01131 between May and June looks another plus.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Newbury

Poniros

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@21.00

Win

75

Quite a few of these look well handicapped and can take steps forward, but this one looks overpriced enough for a play. Not much in his dams pedigree to suggest he wants this trip, but being by Golden Horn he did well over it last time on seasonal debut. He chased home an 88 rated horse to within a length under a 7lb penalty, so the bare face of that alone suggests he’s well handicapped also running off 88. Slight concern for a glut of pace here meaning he won’t get a solo in front, but in an open race I still think he’s overpriced.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Newmarket

Gorak

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Win

20

Last run has worked out well, with two in front winning since, Gorak is hard to ignore here for me. He’s dropped a couple of lbs for that seasonal debut too, and if he runs anywhere near last seasons peak efforts he can be considered well treated off a mark of 95. Most notably he finished 4th in a Group 3, and his last win was around this time last year, albeit off a mark of 83. He had a bit of a line passage on his aforementioned reappearance effort, so in many ways you can upgrade that run. Drawn high, he should be around some pace on that side which is generally a better place to be here, having been drawn 1 last time only to see two high drawn horses in 1st and 3rd.
1 member found this comment useful
17 May 2024
15:15 3:15 York

Bright Thunder

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

Bright Thunder, with just the one run under her belt. She was an easy winner at Haydock when learning on the job. Whilt the horse in behind has done nothing for that form since, the horse 17L back in 4th has chased home Lokana since, and that horse had previously finished only a couple of lengths behind Spiritual last season which knits some form nicely enough into her chance. She's entitled to take a big step forward from that effort, so I think you can take a chance on this half sibling to the relatively smart Iconic Moment.
1 member found this comment useful
14:45 2:45 York

Andaleep

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

The Kubler's have Buick booked on Andaleep who is clearly one of the most exposed in the field as an 8 year old. With Buick aboard they are 5/10 a place in the last year, and at the track the trainers are 4/5 a place, winning twice, in that period. The horses last turf win was over course and distance in July last year off 5lbs lower than this, though he did win by a few lengths. A lack of pace concerns overall from a wide draw, but if Buick can make the most of him he shouldn't be stopping as he does get further. His last two turf efforts have been terrible, so he comes with risks in that sense, but he's been running well on the AW, and his latest 3rd running on strong from the rear was impressive enough to take a small chance in an open race.
1 member found this comment useful
14:15 2:15 York

Miss Lamai

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@13.00

Win

35

Miss Lamai did enough wrong on her first start to be even more impressed with the way she won, rather missing the break and having to scythe through the field early before sticking to the task gamely. The horse she beat by a few lengths was the same horse that finished behind Miss Rascal and she chased home a few of the principles in here eye catchingly when away poorly on debut. So on balance I think you can mark up that run from Miss Lamai who was drawn high and away from most of the field with a split in the stalls which probably didn’t help her get away. If she breaks on terms, and copes with different ground, I think she’s a fair price with that form in the book.
1 member found this comment useful
16 May 2024
16:15 4:15 York

Mon Na Slieve

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Could and should be folly taking on Big Evs, with possibly the only chink in his armour being he’ll likely encounter new ground here. He didn't go with the verve he showed elsewhere when pitched in against his elders here, which is also surely a slight negative for his want for this track. I did think Mon Na Slieve could be worth a play back here. He won well here in a good time on debut which looks overlooked in the market as his form tailed off. He did beat Kylian that day who is a hard to back 4/1 in this, so on that alone he looks a big rice. He could be the one to be dragged through the race by Big Evs, and assuming he can stay off an inevitably strong pace I wonder if anything will be pegged back which just makes him overpriced in my eyes.
1 member found this comment useful
14:45 2:45 York

Al Mubhir

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

Only once in the last 20 renewals has this race gone to a horse rated below 96, so that's a trend I think is worth following after a long look at this race, and I wonder if Al Mubhir can follow up his decent effort last time running down a runaway Miss Cantick. I think that could end up being better form than it appears, and drawn low here Marquand could go the shortest way round this awkward track. If he can latch onto the pace likely to be set by the well backed Point Lynas he could end up stamping his class on the field even if he is handicapped to the hilt. He travelled strongly into his reappearance effort and there is a high chance he takes a decent step forward for that effort having done so 2nd time up last season when notching his only win of the season.
1 member found this comment useful
14:15 2:15 York

Good Earth

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

2 runs this season have been poor, but one was on the AW, on which he is 1 from 26, and the other on soft ground on which he has a poor record overall despite on win at a lower level. 122 in big field 6f handicaps here is also a major plus, as is the fact he's drawn on the side of the likely front runner Tees Spirit. For one that does see out 6f I think he should be staying well enough off a feather weight. His record on Good or better last season over 5f reads 211, and overall 4123211, so the return to better ground is again a positive. So lots of positives for one at a decent price in a wide open race where he could just be out classed, though this race has gone to horses down the bottom in 2 of the last 3 renewals.
1 member found this comment useful
15 May 2024
15:45 3:45 York

Classical Song

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

Looks as stoutly bred as the short priced Fav who could be hard to beat but is turned out quickly enough to have some doubts. Gosden has won 7 of the last 13 renewals, but only 1 had their last run at Newmarket less than 2 weeks prior. She’s all the rage, and rightly so visually, and the time appears to stack up nicely enough too. She’s not taken on lightly, but Classical Song has all the fancy entries over extended trips as well as some fair form to boot. She bled from the nose when last seen finishing 4th in the Fillies Mile, so in some ways you can upgrade that effort behind 3 horses rated between 108 and 112 now. That’s clearly the pick of her form, but a staying on win ahead of Beautiful Love is hardly particularly bad form, and links her into some Classic form lines too. She should definitely get this trip on breeding, and assuming she’s sound from her bleeding experience, I think she could go well.
1 member found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 York

Spycatcher

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.00

Lose

-50

Spycatcher, a previous 2nd in this as a 4yo, gets the hands of Ryan Moore to take him through this with Burke 4 handed. He's got a bit of form to turn round with Mill Stream and Washington Heights, but I'm not completely convinced this horse is an obvious Newmarket horse. He did win a conditions race, but did get roundly spanked in a handicap there, and I just wonder if you can upgrade that run moving to a more conventional track. He didn't look that comfortable into the dip to me, but really did step on up the hill to run down the leaders but just had too much to do. He should get a nice tow into it drawn around some pace angles, and with Cold Case coming here fresh and the selection holding him on form anyway, he and Diligent Harry should be in reverse when this horse is staying on. 
1 member found this comment useful
14:45 2:45 York

Woven

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Win

55

Chances all over, but I’m going to give Woven another play. Dods is in decent form landing some big priced winners, and has won a couple of the relatively recent renewals of this, plus he’s got Murphy booked who is 4/8 a place for him, winning twice. The horse was 16th in this in 2022, but did follow up over 7f with a decent 4th at the track. He notched a joint peak RPR with my money on two starts ago, staying on well off a decent pace. With a truer passage he probably gets up, and was only denied by stumbling on the line. He was less good at Newmarket, but it was his first start there and the pace really held up so I think it’s forgivable and he wasn’t disgraced. He might be struggling to come from off the pace again, though drawn around a couple of pace angles inside him I don’t think stall 4 is a bad place to be. If he can get further forward than usual, he could be sticking to the task, with hopefully the more rain the better.
14:15 2:15 York

Chillingham

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@10.00

Lose

-50

Posted a peak RPR 3rd time up last season, and 1st time cheekpieces are held for his 3rd effort this season. He boasts a fair record over this trip of 11243, the last of which was his most recent effort when where the two horses that set the pace faded tamely late on suggesting perhaps they set a fair gallop. This horse seemed to have half an eye on the closers to his left rather than giving a genuine effort, so the cheekpieces could really help to focus his mind as he came there swinging from a nice prominent position but wasn’t able to press home his advantage. Down a lb for what was close to a career best RPR looks lenient enough though, even if Knightswood has done nothing for the form since. He looks capable on any ground, and is drawn well in 3 to take up a good position in a race that lacks pace so could be easier to stay off it this time. The race tends to go to 4yo’s, so he would have to buck that trend, but he’s lightly raced enough for his age to buck it.
1 member found this comment useful
13 May 2024
18:35 6:35 Windsor

Lady Dreamer

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Up in class, but she looks worth a try here on this ground off the back of a pipe opener. She went well enough first time up last year albeit over 7f and not quite getting home. Tried in first time cheekpieces this time, she ducked left from a wide draw, got dropped in miles back, but stayed on well to finish 5th when seemingly nowhere in the straight. I think that run can be upgraded significantly, and she could strike off a low weight if breaking better here. The visor and tongue tie replace the cheekpieces here, and she won here in a first time visor last year over CD off 1lb higher than this. Trainer has a sound record here (11 from last 67, 33 placed), and the horse is 21 on Gf so back on this surface has to be a plus.
16:47 4:47 Catterick

Hurstwood

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Hurstwood looked interesting to me off a prep run in ground that wouldn't have suited. This could be run way too quickly, and setting up for one to close from off the pace. This horse gets a light weight on suitable going, and did finish a close 5th in this race 2nd time up for the season last year. He's got a decent draw next to a pace angle which could drag him into a better forward position, and hopefully his light weight can see him stay on best. He's towards the top of the speed ratings of these, suggesting he does have the pace to go with them if they go too hard, which looks likely. He did place off this mark on his last start last season, and also placed off higher marks than this throughout the year, with his best efforts by far being on good or better.
12 May 2024
15:30 3:30 Longchamp

Metropolitan

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Win

750

Could be playing for places here with Henry Longfellow involved, but it looked open otherwise, and I thought a chance on Metropolitan was worthwhile. A closing 5th when slowly away behind 6/1 shot for this in Ramadan, he was doing good work late in what turned into an out and out dash for the line. He was the most inconvenienced having to circle the field from an outside draw and didn’t get beaten far. 5 of the last 7 winners have come out of that race and won this, with 3 of those not winning it. Stall 1 may call for different tactics, though his damsire did make all from stall 1 over an additional furlong here, so with some relatively assured stamina in his pedigree perhaps a switch of tactics could see a surprise, with his sire also getting further.
14:50 2:50 Longchamp

Tulipa Chope

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

Tulipa Chope I thought was of small interest at a fair price here from a decent stall 4. She got locked in with nowhere to go over course and distance when last seen, and multiple switches later she ran on well considering in the Grotte, and especially as she wasn’t particularly reached for. Drawn ok in 4 here, with conqueror Minoushka out in 13, I think she could show up better with a bit more luck in running. Chic Colombine holds her on form, but is stuck out in 14 which is a major negative, and the same can be said for Romantic Style. With a large field and some principles drawn poorly, I suspect they could go harder than is desirable, and she’s got stamina to burn in her pedigree so hopefully will be doing some good work later she can hold position in stall 4.
11 May 2024
16:10 4:10 Lingfield

Sonmarg

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

A return to better ground could prove fruitful for Sonmarg from this mark. His two AW races have worked out well this season, seeing multiple horses come out and frank the form, for all it looks like he needs to improve for them on the face of his finishing positions. A look back to his 2yo turf efforts finds him beating a now 82 rated horse on good, before then following home two now 88 rated horses under a penalty on good, with the horse in 4th coming out and winning subsequently. Returning to a more conventional track (was 11th of 11 at Newmarket in last turf start) could prove fruitful, and a mark of 73 under rated him in the right conditions based on all this. A return to front running tactics could prove fruitful in a race with no pace, and up in class he comes here towards the bottom of the weights as well.
15:35 3:35 Lingfield

Born To Rock

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@41.00

Lose

-50

Born To Rock interested me at the prices here, going well in the Nell Gwyn for her seasonal reappearance and first run over further than the minimum trip. She'll need to step on for that, but it wasn't without promise given she didn't appear particularly comfortable hitting the dip at Newmarket, but stuck to the task well enough to my eye. The 1-2 have come out and run sound races in the 1000gns, albeit well beaten enough, but this race isn't of that level overall bar Remarquee who is the standout on ratings off 110. She'll have to run to her best though to give 12lbs to the 3yo's in my view, and it looks massively open bar that. Drying ground looks in her favour, as does an overall lack of pace. She's drawn in the stall (1) that has seen 3 of the last 4 winners break from it (albeit last year on the AW track, not the straight flat 7), and with just 4lbs to find with her fellow 3yo who is 5/2, I do not particularly see why she is sat at such a big price here.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Ascot

Arabian Storm

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Whilst it's hard to make all here, I do wonder whether Arabian Storm may take some catching on the higher side as the pace angle. A good ground close 3rd behind Shoulvebeenaring around this time last year is standout form in the context of a mark of 93 given that horse went on to now be rated 112. He must have had his problems given he didn't race beyond that run in May last year, and whilst he's got form to turn round with Mostabshir from last time he must be entitled to improve having been off the track for nearly a year. Overall they look like they won't go that hard, so with the right fractions from an in form Murphy for an in form stable, he looks a nice enough price to at least get involved.
1 member found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Ascot

Topanga

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

A handicap debut for Topanga off a low weight and pitched in against some elders here which is the biggest worry, but she had to be of interest off this opening mark of 88 getting 13lbs from the older horses (along with a few others in here). She was 5th behind 1000gns winner Elmalka on seasonal debut, and whilst well beaten it’s hardly bad form. Short of room at a key stage when going ok in that steadily run affair, she wasn’t able to go with the ones in front of her. Nudged up in trip here, perhaps if she has a want for further that was why. She’s certainly bred to appreciate further, being out of a horse who’s Mother won over CD in the Sandringham off a mark of 105, and who also won over further, and also on decent ground. The yard couldn’t be in better form
1 member found this comment useful
10 May 2024
15:40 3:40 Chester

Too Friendly

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Too Frienly caught me eye here, for De Sousa again to land the big race spoils. The horse showed up well on the AW on his penultimate start off a big weight, and he could take advantage of a feather weight here having been used to saddling fair weights over obstacles. He'll appreciate conditions, albeit might want a bit more watering to be seen to best effect, but he could get the box seat sat just in behind the leaders if breaking on terms looking at the pace maps. He cantered over the field in a slowly ran affair, and quickened up appreciatively looking to have more to give at Kempton. A 4lb rise for that might not be enough to keep him out of the frame at a fair enough price in what is ultimately a bit of a lottery. His 2nd to Rubaud in a Listed event on reappearance suggests enough ability to make a mockery of this mark for a trainer that is a fair 12 from 73 on the flat this season.
14:35 2:35 Chester

Parlando

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Rinse repeat of yesterdays non runner write up, and as I thought yesterday, Parlando could be another one to come out of the Lincoln with credit having been given a bit of an odd passage. Starting in 4, he switched groups having seemingly been settled on the far side. He then met plenty of interference before eventually staying on past beaten horses in ground that perhaps wasn't ideal (was his first run on soft). A length defeat to a now 98 rated horse off levels on his penultimate run on these shores reads well in the context of a mark of 90, and his runs prior to his Lincoln effort abroad were largely consistent. He's got a wide draw to contend with, and with 4 forward goers on his inside he could get a good sit behind them with a clear break. My assumption is the cutaway will be removed which could well inconvenience, but I think he's worth chancing all the same. He has been ridden forward in the past which I think will be a plus if he can get forward and go with them. 
13:30 1:30 Chester

Island Native

Daily Racing

25 EW

@29.00

Lose

-50

A couple of last time backed in here spearhead the market, and I wouldn’t put anyone off Percy’s Lad either which makes up the front 3. This could be the one that Franny Norton nicks on Island Native. He’s sent up in class and has an absolute feather weight to saddle here. 0/5 on turf doesn’t inspire much confidence, and he could just be outclassed in this company, but he could just be the lowest drawn pace angle in here, and if Franny can nick to the front he hopefully can make the most of his light weight. In fields of 12 to 15 runners, stall 6 has the highest A/E, producing 5 winners to a 2.13 IV (GF/G ground), as an added bonus to his stall position. The returning Visor is also of some interest as it almost sparked him into victory when first applied, bumping into a horse who has progressed 9lbs since.   

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