JackpotRod

A competitive Becher, but an each-way chance taken here on Olly Murphy’s charge. He put up a fairly sound reappearance off a big weight, and while this is a far tougher task than that, he does benefit from being towards the bottom of the weights. He’s entitled to improve for the effort, and the more rain the better for him. Hughes has won his last two for Murphy and will saddle a nice light weight.

It’s a retrieval mission for this horse, who has been on the downgrade since Cheltenham 2024. He’s still only eight, and while it is a big ask to win this off top weight, a mark of 145 can still underestimate his latent ability. Win surgery is being reached for to try and find something out of him, and it could work. I found it interesting that only one horse has won this race from a mark below 130 in the last nine runnings, which almost ruled out all but the top three in the weights here. Two of those are Nicholls horses, and he generally has runners go well in this over the years. So I’ll chance this potentially classy customer formally as an outsider of the field.

Three-time chase winner and course winner whose record in good speed (GS) reads well with two places and a win. He needed the runs last year when scoring third time up. Notably, his second run involved carrying a big weight on his first try over 3m on soft ground. He’s 2/3 off a 15??"30 day break. With Longsdon wanting some better ground for him, this could be right up his street. Beating now 139-rated Coco Mademoiselle while conceding just 5 lb suggests a rating of 122 is workable if he’s on his game.

Ran a bit flat on reappearance, but dropped in trip, I think Kotmask is dangerous to rule out here. He strung together a string of decent efforts here last year, including 2nd in this off a lb lower than this mark. That gives him plenty to find with Martator on the bare form, but if he can be ridden a bit more prominently over this shorter trip, I think he can be involved in the shake-up. The featherweight can help him at the sharp end too.

Trappy big field, and Hartington appeals of the shorter ones. But in a big field, I’m more inclined to find one at a bigger price in the shape of Nab Wood. He went well up to 3m for the first time last time, and whilst 5lbs asks a different question, he looks capable of further progress. The trainer has 6 placed from his last 9, including 4 winners. The horse was ridden forward on that reappearance, and with a lack of pace in here, it could pay to again force the pace on a track that’s a bit easier to get. 16/1 just looks a bit too tempting to ignore.

I was most taken by the Alan King pair in here, and so I’ll chance the first string on jockey bookings with Cannon on Castle Carrock. Unexposed, he beat recent Listed scorer Diva Luna on his only try on a soft surface. Third in a grade after that, he had Putthepoundinthejar way behind, and that horse comes here on the same mark as this horse. He didn’t quite cut it in Grade 1 company since when up in trip, but was keen that day and perhaps not seen to best effect on the ground. Overall, he looks unexposed enough and on a good enough mark to chance.

Nothing to prove staying wise on soft ground, and this 12yo gets a nice racing weight here for this reappearance. He’s got a fairly sound record fresh, with last season being the one blip post wind surgery, but that was over far shorter than he’s best at. He’s had wind surgery again here, and did win off his first round of wind surgery when taking the Foxhunters at Aintree in 2022. A few old horses face off here, with the ones holding potential being towards the bottom of the weights, so it’s a fairly fascinating contest, but hopefully this boy can roll back the years and prove competitive at a big price.

Takes a rise in grade here, but has a solid record at the track, as well as being 3/4 a place at 3m2f+. Harry Bannister is 2/3 a place on him, and down at the bottom of the weights at 10st 2lbs, it’s the first time the horse has saddled less than 11 stone. For one that stays well, as long as he’s just not outclassed, that could bode well. That 10st 2lbs is also matching Bannister's lowest racing weight in the last 12 months, with his last 6 runs off that race having a form read of 122172.

Found out in graded company after posting a comfortable success on heavy ground, so there should be no concerns over the ground for this horse. A fairly pricey sort, she's related to a 3m2f winner, so the trip shouldn’t be what finds her out. A winner on rules debut, she can go well fresh, and her Sandown 4th of 5 is worth looking at, as it’s a race that’s worked out well and she was giving away 5 lbs to the field there and did go off 6/5f that day. So, if she’s the graded mare that Henderson thinks she is, a mark of 127 should be easily achievable.

Tricky race, but NTD's looked overpriced here to me, having beaten Kelce on worse terms than this in February. That horse is far shorter, but this horse has prior form on heavy ground, and the 7lb stripped off could see him competitive given he’s won off this adjusted mark. Whilst beaten over CD last time, that was good ground and he became detached whereas he prefers to go forward. The slower ground should temper enthusiasm to go quickly here, so assuming he can get his favored position, I think he can go well. This is a far easier race than he faced last time as well, and he’s 3/7 dropped into this class.

Has the potential to be far ahead of the assessor off this mark here if he’s ready first time up off a mark of 114. A good 2nd getting 6lb off now 138 rated Julius Des Pictons two starts ago. He was then 2nd to a 127 rated horse off level weights sent up in trip on soft ground. He should cope with this stiff test if he can lie up with the pace as he has proved himself over further. Not yet a winner, so a want to get his head over the line is a slight worry, but hopefully the drop back in trip can help in that regard for this forward-going horse.

A capable sort that has racked up a decent record here, being 121 on completed starts. A faller in the Champion Chase, where he never looked to be going with much fluency until he ranged into it between the 4th and 3rd last, his race was over before it was run with an error there. Forecast rain is a big plus to his chances, and whilst he, like all of these, will need Jonbon to underperform, I always think there’s a chance of that with Henderson’s charge, who is proving himself prone to an error or three. LH has gone well fresh on a number of occasions, and whilst he has plenty of improvement to find on ratings here, the weight he gets from the top two in the market could hopefully prove telling late on if Cobden can smuggle him into it with improved jumping.

Showed some decent form on his two starts over fences recently, and being just 1lb above his Irish mark, the jockey claim actually takes him a couple of lbs below it here. A recent spin over Hurdles was in a race that’s worked out well, and he was never really put into the race until late on. Prior to that he split a decent pair, getting just 2lbs from a now 142 rated Chaser, whilst getting a lb from a 137 rated horse in behind that has made hay in P2P’s since. A newcomer in this sphere, but if he can match his best form he can outrun his odds here.