JackpotRod

I'll get you an odds on shots beaten, but also give you some long odds winners with hopefully some insightful reasoning to help you to decide whether to follow me in or not. Back all my own selections with my own cash.

Estimated Prizes
this month

£30

Estimated Prize money
this month

JackpotRod's Tips History

26 July 2024

15:35 3:35 Ascot

Tabletalk

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Win

You're taking on a full brother of Mostahdaf if you're sidestepping the fav here, though I do think you can therefore question the horses absolute want for this trip at a a track like Ascot. The horse he had in 2nd was also stuffed here yesterday which is surely a knock enough to the form to be taking him on. Supplemented for the Derby, Tabletalk has been given a rating of 94 to negotiate which is no particular gift, but I was more inclined to give him a chance at the odds. Given the level of race he's dropping from I don't think he was completely disgraced in the Derby in truth, even if he was well beaten off, and he could find himself well treated enough as I think that was better than a 94 rated performance in and around horses rated plenty higher than that. He's hard to judge effectively, but with Tom Clover knocking in some winners it's interesting he pops up here instead of a Listed/Group event in the hopes of utilising his mark. Murphy is a positive booking, being 6 from 9 a place for the trainer in the last 5 years.

15:00 3:00 Ascot

Musical Mystery

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

A blip last time, but has been running with credit before that. He's made all or been in touch with the lead multiple times, so I'm not clear why pace maps have him further back. In a race that lacks pace overall he could end up trying to make it under Silvestre, or just latch onto Amsterdam. Either way I'll be surprised if he's far back as he was at Brighton last time. He bunny hopped out of the stalls almost and found himself way back and about 6 wide in to the final turn, and then he got absolutely no run and his race was done. That shouldn't be the case here if he can get away cleanly. You can tie his form into much shorter priced Red Maids via Yantarni, who the selection met giving 6lbs to for a 3L defeat. Red Maids was beaten by less by the same horse, but not much less, and was in receipt of 7lbs. The pair meet on relatively level terms here, which points to this horse being well handicapped.

25 July 2024

19:30 7:30 Yarmouth

Moulin Booj

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Win

I think the ew price about Moulin Booj looks more than fair here if he can take to this harder race. His run last time has been franked of sorts by 1st and 2nd who have run with credit since,, and he travelled well there when meeting some traffic whereas 1st and 2nd were sitting in clear air the whole way. Pitched into a harder race he gets his lowest weight carry in a handicap which can hopefully help him see this out a bit better. His best efforts have seemingly come in a hood which is removed here, although his last win did come without it, with that also being his peak RPR. It’s also a bonus in a race like this that the jockey knows the horse well. The lack of pace would concern if he gets too far back, but he does sit towards the top of the speed ratings in here so that could combine well with his low weight.

19:00 7:00 Yarmouth

Storm Star

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

Baldings Colt Storm Star looked to have been given a fair chance by the handicapper off 83 for handicap debut but he failed to convert in a slowly run affair. 4th under a penalty having won on debut, he chased home a couple of 90+ rated horses giving 7lbs away so you’d still have to feel he could be well in enough here against some older horses too so getting a chunky allowance. The real source of improvement for him could be the ground being out of a dam who excelled on a quick surface and is a half sister to Foxtrot Lady who did the same. That’s the real unexposure he brings, and I’m happy to hang a small hat on some genuine improvement off what should be a handy mark.

18:30 6:30 Yarmouth

Beylerbeyi

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

Two decent efforts to 2nd at this track looked of interest for Belerbeyi who has put together a string of sound efforts. The pace in this interested me in that it looks a lone pace angle with Mostawaa drawn alongside, and whilst this horse generally races in rear, he could get dragged out of the stalls on this occasion. Twice this year he has raced in touch, most recently at Wolverhampton where he won pretty easily from forward. More interestingly perhaps he did the same over course and distance, and also on todays quick ground. Now if there is t much pestering of Mostawaa it could pay to side with one that can get close enough to him to stay on late, and the mood this horse is in I think he stands as good a chance as any at doing so. He gets a lb back for matching a peak RPR last time, and that effort can be marked up as well given he’s just 1 from 10 on the AW and he had to swing round the whole field there.

23 July 2024

15:45 3:45 Musselburgh

Ghathanfar

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@6.00

Lose

-50

With a possible soft lead in the offing and back to better ground, this horse could go well over the minimum trip. A front running want, being top of the speed ratings, if he get his own way and can stack up the field a bit he could prove hard to peg back with the right fractions. To have gone so well in soft conditions that wouldn't have been ideal last time, you have to mark up that effort, and off a big weight too. From the same mark in a harder race he'll have a kinder weight carry. Trainer has had 8 runners here in the last year, 5 of them placing, with 3 of those being winners. This horse has won here too, over 7f, so could take to the track well.

22 July 2024

19:20 7:20 Windsor

Nogos Dream

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 11.00 used instead of 10.00 takenBOG

@11.00

Win

A consistent type that has struggled to convert with just 1 win from 17 and from 10 on turf, but cheekpieces appear to have perked him up the last twice. He’s gone well at the track on the two occasions he’s run here, and whilst GF might be on the quick side he seems to cope with it. Indeed he ate up the ground late when outpaced over 5f at Lingfield on GF, so perhaps being at this trip wand with cheekpieces added he could get a bit more prominent from stall 1 and see this out. He was possibly guilty of getting to the front too soon under a claim when just touched off over 6f, but in this big field and with pace on that shouldn’t be the case here.

1 member found this comment useful

17:18 5:18 Windsor

Bretton Wood

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@9.00

Lose

-50

Ran poorly in the Windsor Castle, and it’s fair to say this Frankel out of Pretty Pollyanna has been a huge disappointment on breeding so far. That being said, a mark of 73 doesn’t look particularly harsh on some promise shown, finishing not far behind horses now rated between 84 and 101 on debut. He ran with some sort of promise at Chester too, being passed late by Coventry winner Rashabar and still doing some decent work late. He’s been sub par since, albeit being beaten by some smart enough types in a Yarmouth Novice before the aforementioned Windsor Castle run. He just lacked the pace to go the gallop there perhaps, and with a smaller field and less pace on here perhaps he can get involved from a decent draw in 1. With the field split by just 7lbs, he’s running against vastly inferior horses than he’s been running against overall, so now could be the chance to fulfil his breeding promise. He’s got De Sousa doing the steering round a track where he excels.

1 member found this comment useful

21 July 2024

15:15 3:15 Curragh

Poet Master

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@6.00

Win

250

Mountain Bear is standout at the weights here, but I’d question whether hold up tactics are going to work in a small field without a particularly blistering pace. I was keener to take a chance on Poet Master who has run poorly twice, but each time has been going left handed and caught wider than ideal. GF ground was also perhaps against him last time when he didn’t really pick up. On ratings he’ll struggle to give 7lbs to Mountain Bear perhaps but I think there are some positives to his chances. Trainer and connections head to Ireland perhaps in search of a bit more dig, and they might get enough to make him competitive. He should get a nice lead into the race, or could indeed make it himself which might be preferable given an overall lack of pace. He sits top of the speed ratings of these which is an added bonus so may be hard to catch if getting his own way on more suitable ground. The fact he gets sent up in class after disappointing in Listed company suggests he’s pretty well thought of.

1 member found this comment useful

20 July 2024

15:55 3:55 Ripon

Fox Journey

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

The lack of pace on is interesting for Fox Journey who made all over this trip to win snuggly a few starts back but has subsequently struggled up in trip. He's got a fair weight burden to saddle here, but if he does turn up in the form of that Newmarket win he could be an interesting one to peg back over a trip at which he is 3/4 a place, winning twice. Many won’t forgive him two below par runs since then, but with possible drying ground being a plus for him (all 3 wins on Good) I think he’s overlooked enough to chance him at the odds.it’s a bit of a danger as I backed the well backed Shadow Dance at Ascot where he was disappointing, and had Iron Lion backed when a non runner recently, but overall I think this one is worth a chance.

1 member found this comment useful

15:40 3:40 Curragh

Galileo Dame

Daily Racing

25 EW

@29.00

Lose

-50

Big step up needed for this horse, but she looks a bit forgotten to me having gone off favourite for the Oaks trial at Chester when chasing home Port Fairy from a pretty uncompromising position. She didn’t appear to handle the track there, but was staying on at the finish under not much pressure. She can improve for any rain in the forecast, and she’ll certainly need to but you’re more than compensated with her price. She was ridden a bit more prominent last time over too short a trip, and whilst she’ll need to make a big improvement from that, the lack of pace in here suggests she could again be ridden a bit more forward. It’s a relatively loose case, but I think she’s a more than fair price in what looks an open enough race.

1 member found this comment useful

15:15 3:15 Market Rasen

Mole Court

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

14:25 2:25 Newbury

Temporize

Daily Racing

100 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 11.00 used instead of 8.00 takenBOG

@11.00

Win

1000

Posted a career best RPR first time up for the season at Goodwood, and whilst he didn't repeat that up in trip when beaten by the same horse at Ascot. That gives him 4.5L to find with current fav Kyle Of Lochalsh and just being a few lbs better off than for that recent defeat, but the drop in trip has to be a plus in that regard as he was traveling nicely into the straight at Ascot before meeting trouble in running, whilst the latter got a pretty clear run through the field when hard ridden. This will be a fairer examination, and the easier track should suit this horse to on that evidence as he faded late on after getting stopped when making an effort. A nice low weight carry can see him fair well, and on the balance of his form he could well be suited to a smaller field, and if he can get forward and take a lead from Ranch Hand I'd say he wouldn't be stopping thanks to his 8st7lb weight carry.

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19 July 2024

18:35 6:35 Hamilton

First Folio

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@8.50

Win

Has done nowhere near enough winning for a horse that has promised plenty, but he’s been progressing with each start and he gets an added claim here to his career low mark. Oisin Mcsweeney hasn’t proved fair value for his claim this year, but he’s a fair 5 from 17 here, and is 1 from 2 when being utilised by Camacho. The trainer has been quiet, but he’s shown some signs of a resurgence, and she does have 12 wins from 38 runners here in the last 5 years. The horses last run has been franked by Summerghand, and whilst he’s got something to find with Manila Scouse he does have a 4lb swing with that horse for what was a close run thing.

16:10 4:10 Newbury

Spirit Of Leros

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Lose

-50

Principality looks quite solid in here but has been backed as such, though perhaps his jaunt to Ireland could have enough of a detrimental effect to take him on, and my feel is there could be something that takes a jolt of improvement here. The lack of any obvious forward goer in here does also count against the favourite as he seems to need to be held up. Big Cyril could be the one to take them forward, and he's been backed accordingly too. Spirit of Leros could take a nice lead from him, and he impressed when winning at Lingfield, and in doing so he beat Kon'nichiwae a similar distance that Anno Domini did, who is now off a rating of 94. A similar sort of performance could be enough to see him involved in the business end, especially as he won without barely a flash of the persuader and was strong at the finish despite running a bit free. From the family of Ektihaam, he might not be lacking for a bit more distance, so if he can get them on the stretch he could prove strong at the finish and be hard to peg back.

18 July 2024

18:30 6:30 Epsom Downs

Charlie Mason

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

An interesting little handicap this, with plenty of chances and questions. Two fairly strong in the market looks solid enough in a sense with progression likely, and the booking of Murphy on Hello Cotai is eye catching enough, but I'm happy to have a small ew play on one in Charlie Mason. Not an obvious candidate to go up in trip on breeding, he has stayed on interestingly on recent starts, in particular on his latest effort at Lingfield where he was really strong at the line. Up 1-2f here, he's unexposed at the trip as a result. The ground is probably the real issue as his best work has come on soft but i'm happy to overlook that as he does handle Good or better. The real hope is Shot Of Love goes hard enough to blow out from the front, giving significant allowances to the 3yos, and if this horse can be switched off he could be given a good tow into it from the rear by horses and jockeys eager to catch a runaway leader. It's chancey enough, but his price compensates enough for a small investment.

16:05 4:05 Chepstow

Hurricane Power

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

There looks a fair chance of a pace collapse here with a potential 3 way fight for the lead, and I thought Hurricane Power could be of interest as one to benefit for an in form trainer partnership that have had 7 placed from 11 runners, and they’re 9 from 17 a place here albeit with just the one winner. Exclusively campaigned at 7f as a 3yo, he takes a drop in trip pitched in against his elders and therefore benefiting from a 5lb allowance. The drying ground is a plus based on his 2yo efforts over 6f, chasing home a now 90 rated horse off levels at Windsor before following up behind horses rated 73 and 81 now. In this context, and adjusted mark for claim of 66 could well prove feasible enough for him to have a say if he isn’t taken off his feet back in trip.

1 member found this comment useful

15:55 3:55 Hamilton

Moonspirit

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 4.33 on 18/07 at 08:370.10 deduction for Freedom Day@9.00 withdrawn at 09:11R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 3.33 x (1-0.10) = 4.00Best Odds Guaranteed SP 4.50 used instead of 4.00 BOG

@4.50

Win

175

In a race not full of alternatives, Moonspirit looked over interest nudged up just 2lbs for a win last time. She didn’t break brilliantly and had to do things the hard way rounding the field. She only just got up, but I don’t think that told the whole story of her effort, and in a smaller field with a better break I think she can continue an upward curve and prove hard to pass if she gets in front. A prior 7th at Royal Ascot looks solid too, and 2 wins from 3 runs on good suggest conditions are ideal, and trainer is 5 from 15 when sending them on a jaunt to Hamilton.

17 July 2024

16:22 4:22 Thirsk

Roberto Caro

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.00

Win

240

Tom Marquand looks an interesting booking here taking this horse sprinting. 3/5 a place for trainer in the last year, he’s only taken 10 rides here, placing with 3, but 2 of those were from 3 over this trip, and he won 1 of them. A sole 3yo in the race, he gets. 5lb allowance thrown in pitched in against his elders. His only run over this trip so far saw him slowly away and running on which led to him being sent up in trip. He’s broken well on 2 of 4 starts, and he’ll probably need to do so here, but if he does and is allowed to run a bit free I think he can put it up to the older horses. It’s a punchy enough move, but he did chase home a 90 rated horse on his last start in Novice company giving that horse 5lbs, so running effectively off 72 here could see home competitive if he can go with them. He’s switched yards, and Keatley has a fair 7/18 a place record, with 3 wins, in the last two years with yard switchers.

15:52 3:52 Thirsk

Platinum Girl

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 34.00 used instead of 17.00 takenBOG

@34.00

Win

140

Looks an interesting starting point for this horse who finished 2nd off a break last season. She’s 2lbs above her last winning mark, which incidentally was also on her only run on GS ground. Drying ground is in the offing but it will probably retain some juice. She’s got late blowout potential against race fit horses as she’s likely to want to go from the front, but does sit at bottom weight to help her cause. She was a decent 3rd on her last try in this class, and is 5lbs lower than for that effort which was around this time last year. With a bit of pace on this could be a test which adds to the blowout potential, but I think her price compensates enough to take a chance.

16 July 2024

17:00 5:00 Beverley

Blufferonthebus

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.50

Win

375

One of 2 3yo's in receipt of 7lbs, but with a record in her 3yo season of 132 on soft, and being a neck away from being 131, I thought this horse was worth a go. She was headed late over a furlong further last time up in class, and faces easier climate here. It was her first run against her elders last time and she fared well considering she was simply outclassed on paper. She's now going so again back in class and trip, and she's got a good draw in 1 for one that will want to go forward. Had she run her last race over this trip she'd probably have won being in front at the furlong pole so hopefully a similar effort can see her go well. Trainers string in fine fettle with last 5 of 8 in 1st (2) or 2nd(3).

16:00 4:00 Beverley

Elzaal

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@12.00

Lose

-50

With a record of 22 with soft being the dominant ground descriptor this horse could improve for the return to the surface here. One of those was here as well, where he holds a record of 233 over course and distance. He needs to get over a flop last time but has otherwise been running well this season, and with this added jockey claim he'll be 5lbs lower than last time, and 10lbs lower than his opening mark for the season when placing on the AW. With wins off marks as high as 63 this lower mark could just about get him involved even if any of these could improve or the conditions.

14 July 2024

14:55 2:55 Chantilly

Some Skye

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.00

Lose

-50

Skillet steps out of smart company for this first step up in trip so is to be feared, but this is a competitive enough field otherwise and she has enough to prove to take her on. Some Skye looked of interest to me with the field closely matched through various lines of form. Real concern would be a lack of pace if she sits off it going down in trip, but if she can be a bit more forward from stall 3 she can prove strong at the finish as she’s proven over 10f. She’s got form to match the best of the French horses on show, so to see her the biggest price of those is good enough for me.

1 member found this comment useful

13 July 2024

16:35 4:35 Newmarket

Regional

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@9.00

Void

I'm a big fan of Regional who has done nothing wrong in 2 starts this season. The ground is possibly the reason why he's edged towards an ew price as he won't want worse than good, but it looks to be drying, and drys quickly here, so I'm praying it dries enough to see him run. I'm hoping he can just blow the field apart with some speed, even with a contested pace, being top of the speed ratings. He posted his peak speed figure over Ascots stiff 5f last time. I think his effort was even more impressive given he got slightly outpaced by Big Evs when the field split, got headed by the winner, but then stayed on very strongly for 2nd when seemingly held, also drifting right markedly. If kept straighter there he could well have won, and perhaps drifting right here from stall 2 might inconvenience a few. He probably should have won over 6f on seasonal debut when getting headed late by Mitbaahy, but he could well be suited by having a bit of company up front here, is drawn well, and is just a massively likeable type.

1 member found this comment useful

16:00 4:00 Newmarket

Aalto

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@11.00

Win

300

Carrytheone has got obvious chances based on his last two efforts, but overall his profile doesn’t scream consistency so I’d be wary taking such a short price on him. Ratings wise this looked a weakish renewal, and as a result I’ll take a light weight about one, and the one I landed on was Aalto who has run with great credit on numerous occasions this season. He steps back up in class having saddled fair weights to decent finishes recently. His last run in this class was over a mile where he travelled into the nicely at the 7f pole. If he can do something similar here I think he can be involved at the business end saddling a lesser weight than he has been over what looks like it could be an ideal trip. 4th on speed ratings, he can sit off a nice pace and stick on this time round to my eye in an inevitably competitive big field handicap. Trainer has 5 places from his last 7, including 2 winners, which adds some interest.

1 member found this comment useful

14:12 2:12 Newmarket

Hard To Resist

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

Course and distance winner that may well have just needed the reappearance run given she started out life finishing 6th of 6. Peak 2yo efforts would have her better than a mark of 94, in particular finishing in and around horses rated 107-110 now in a Group 3. In truth, I think her run in the Sandringham can be ignored, especially given that Fair Angelica was in behind that day and she has won in French Listed company since. This horse didn’t stay the mile in France, so perhaps a stiff Ascot mile was just never going to suit anyway, and a return to 7f here can see her in a much better light. A lack of obvious pace is a plus given she made all when seen here, and with Moore in the saddle she could be set for a decent run.

1 member found this comment useful

12 July 2024

15:35 3:35 Newmarket

A Lilac Rolla

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@6.00

Lose

-50

Tactics from Oisin Murphy on Running Lion may well be less of a surprise here, and the way she hung when last seen here on the other track has to be a concern to be backing her to follow up. Porta Fortuna is probably a safer bet of the principles, but then on direct form with A Lilac Rolla she could well be held with their line through Opera Singer who beat that horse by further when last seen. The former could well feel the effects of a tough race at Ascot with that probably being the target, so I’m happy to chance Twomey’s charge here who probably had more in hand when facing Opera Singer than Porta Fortuna did. It’s fractions, but the disparity in price looks a bit too big overall. Only 2 of the last 8 winners of this came here and won off the back of a win as an added trend plus.

1 member found this comment useful

14:40 2:40 York

Prime Art

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Prime Arts belated reappearance is interesting given she 3 of the top 4 in the betting on on last seasons Group 3 win when last seen. The win was all the more impressive given she largely missed the break, met a bit of trouble in running, and had to squeeze through a gap that almost closed on her too. You're taking a chance she's ready off a fair break, and she switches to Jane Chapple-Hyam who pitches her into a competitive one. She either of the mind that she's ready to go or they're seeing where they are with her, so whilst you're guessing there I think there's enough juice in her price to take that chance in an open field. Unequal Love looks to back up her Ascot win, and with solid Group form in the book she could well do but she looks a touch short still, and the one I slightly fear is Adaay In Devon who has some similarly interesting form.

1 member found this comment useful

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Travolta

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Impressively took top weight to victory at Sandown latest when seemingly winning with plenty in hand. He’s been given a 9lb rise for that so he’s got that to prove, but even that might not be enough given I think he’d have won by even further had he not almost refused to go on when looking the horses he was passing in the eye. When his mind got focused he extended clear nicely at the new trip, and must have more to come. Up in class he gets a kinder weight carry, and he’s already shown he handles this track when chasing home now 101 and 114 horses on the July course as a 2yo. Even that reflects this new mark of 91 well, and drying ground looks in his favour.

1 member found this comment useful

11 July 2024

15:35 3:35 Newmarket

Giavellotto

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.00

Win

300

It’s disappointing but expected to see Hamish so short here having gone so well last time. The presence of Outbox suggests this could end up being a test of stamina, and generally with his best work over this trip I was willing to take him on here, and the one I thought was disrespected had to be Giavellotto. He cantered all over them at York, with Murphy looking round and not really believing what he was seeing I would imagine with a smart field being left in his wake as he extended clear. A 3lb penalty doesn’t look insurmountable in this field, and he’s such a consistent type I’d have him as being up there with Hamish as guaranteed to be wearing his heart on his sleeve. If he can stay in touch, I think he’ll be doing his best work late at a trip that shouldn’t be feared.

14:25 2:25 Newmarket

Billboard Star

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Win

Billboard Star won over course and distance in a decent time last time out, in fact it was quick enough to be competitive in this race given the time would have seen him win 11 of the last 12 renewals run on Gf. Ground is the issue, as he has to transfer that to soft ground as it stands, but with drying ground looking a prospect that could work in favour. Whilst his win looked a bit workmanlike, he won without a crack of the whip to make it even more impressive than it probably looked. The form is below the level required to win the race, but the course experience can count for something. He doesn’t have the fancy profile of some of these granted, any of which could improve beyond recognition, but he looks an uncomplicated slogger and should run his race even if he needs a big step up on the bare face of his form.

07 July 2024

16:10 4:10 Ayr

Little Empire

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@8.50

Lose

-50

Feasibly outclassed from just outside the handicap, Little Empire takes a big leap in class here. He didn’t follow up his CD win last time, but the truth of his race at Wolverhampton was with a better run he probably would have won easily. He got stopped in his run multiple times having been locked away in rear on the rail, and it was to his credit that he finished where he did. His CD run is of interest in that it was run a time that would have won 8 of the last 10 renewals of this race. So a repeat of that from bottom weight and getting stacks of weight all round could well see him competitive.

1 member found this comment useful

15:07 3:07 Deauville

Iberian

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I’m minded to take a small chance on Iberian here after another Newmarket flop. He’s on a recovery mission after finishing dead last in the 2000gns, but he did put up a similarly poor effort on his last run as a 2yo at the same track. Prior to that, his win on a more conventional Newbury track is interesting for a return to a flatter track here, beating the likes of Sunway and Rosallion. It could just be he hasn’t trained on, but I’m willing to forgive one run that was just too bad to be true, and it’s punchy enough to pitch him into a French Group 1 off the back of that to think both trainer and connections don’t see him as out of place. Back to 7f looks no negative in a race that lacks an obvious pace angle.

1 member found this comment useful

06 July 2024

16:25 4:25 Haydock

Mirsky

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Void

Ran better than was obvious in the Royal Hunt cup when seemingly one of the last off the bridle, on the evidence of that the 7f is well worth exploring here as he faded quite badly late on. The rain around is a plus for him, with all of his wins coming with soft in the description. Whilst this is a quick turnaround, to lose a few lbs from that Ascot run in such a competitive race is some sort of gift, and if he can rediscover anything near his best form in France he could have plenty in hand now off 94 having gone well off a mark of 98 in the Thirsk Hunt Cup on British debut.

1 member found this comment useful

15:35 3:35 Sandown

Ghostwriter

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.50

Lose

-50

Ghostwriter will do for me here as I think he’s had two fairly troubled passages in top company this year but still come out with major credit. Stumbling early in the 2000gns, he got outpaced there but stuck to the task well to take 4th despite being unbalanced. He then got locked away in the Jockey Club, and had to switch out round reversing horses and lost momentum. With a clearer run there he’d have been plenty closer. It’s hard to really take too much from the draw, but I do wonder if Hans Anderson will try to go as hard as he can to set it up for City Of Troy who drops in trip here from his Derby win. Whilst the selection does have 12lbs to find on official ratings, he did beat the latter in the Guineas over a shorter trip than this so I think this can be largely overlooked, notwithstanding the worry this becomes a proper test. The overall lack of pace would suggest to me it won't.

1 member found this comment useful

15:15 3:15 Haydock

Iron Lion

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@13.00

Void

This seasons form could see him better than this mark on the right ground after seemingly not getting home last time saddling a big enough weight on GF ground. 2 from 3 over this sort of trip, he saddled a stone less here in an admittedly harder race. His last race when 5th has been franked nicely, and he gets a 5lb swing with Euchen Glen too for this reduced trip. He won easily over course and distance off just 4lbs higher saddling the same weight carry, and a repeat of that effort can see him go well as he rather sauntered into that race into the straight, and he can be kept on a truer line then he probably has a bit more than 4lbs in hand from that. An in form Jason Watson take over who has 4 winners from his last 10 rides so looks a positive addition. A lack of pace concerns given he's likely to be held up, but hopefully the big field will guarantee some sort of clip and allow him to come swinging late.

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13:50 1:50 Sandown

Makarova

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Win

350

It could be worth chancing that Live In The Dream will just be too free again and set it up for something, and I feel like Makarova could finally have her day. She’s operated at a decent level without getting her head in front very often, but rarely disgraced herself. She looks capable of sitting close up off a strong pace, and it could pay to get a nice tow into the race from a forward position with the ground possibly heading towards the easy side given the amount of rain around. She won’t mind any easing, and it could make it harder for horses to swing from the back as is often the case here. She was up in touch in this last year, and ran a solid 2nd to Equality who does reoppose here but is on a bit a retrieval mission himself. A repeat of those tactics can see her go well.

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03 July 2024

20:00 8:00 Epsom Downs

Ectocross

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@8.00

Lose

-50

Looks to have plenty going for him here for an in form trainer with a few recent winners. He’s 2 from 6 with Hollie Doyle aboard here, combining with a horse that has a record of 122 at Epsom. His first win came off a winter break so I’d have no qualms chancing him off this longer break. He won his only start on Good since entering handicap company, here over 2f shy of this. He should stay, and a seeming lack of pace will help in that regard. The 3yo’s with claims could prove problematic on the ratings, but each has enough to prove, so I’m happy to chance this one.

19:25 7:25 Epsom Downs

Reveiller

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

A couple of course and distance bandits temper enthusiasm for this one who is thrown in against older horses here off what looks a fairly harsh mark based on his seasonal reappearance. That said, a sole effort at 6f was in a group 3 behind Elite Status and a number of other decent types, so with his 3yo claim against most of the field, an adjusted mark of 78 could be within reach back up to this trip. Cheekpieces are added, with which a half sibling went close when applied first time so they are a source of improvement. At 14/1 outsider in a small field, I’m happy to take a chance on him.

30 June 2024

15:25 3:25 Curragh

Atlantic Coast

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@17.00

Win

Looked worth a small interest with sights lowered here having finished 6th in the Irish 2000gns last time. That’s clearly a race that has worked out well, with even Mountain Bear in 7th coming out to place in the Jersey. Clearly this is much easier down to Listed company, and the O’Brien 2nd string should guarantee a fair pace to aim at, but this doesn’t look an obvious target for either of his horses so they could just set it up for something to stay on beyond them. On balance I think the level of form this horse has shown has him disrespected in the market in the hope he doesn’t stay too far off the pace.

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15:00 3:00 Uttoxeter

Go On Chez

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@8.00

Lose

-50

Go On Chez interested me here, stepping away from Hunter Chases back into handicap company. He saddled the standard 12st round last time, chasing home horses rated 133-140, and barring a mistake at the 3rd last he could have been much closer. To his credit he plugged on and didn’t finish far back at all, also getting hindered approaching the last. To my eye the jockey could have been tougher on him, and off an untouched mark of 130 he’ll saddle a feather weight round here. The real worry for him is if he’s ridden too far off the pace, but there looks enough pace involved to think he could travel into this nicely if he’s not ultimately outclassed.

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29 June 2024

15:10 3:10 Newcastle

Grand Providence

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

Consistent in this sort of company the last twice, and the reintroduction of Probert interested me given he's been on board the horse for all 3 of his AW runs. The horse found his form this time last year too, so off the back of 2 sound enough efforts he could take the required step forward here. He was asked to do a lot of work early to get a good position at Chester and was a bit keen to get on with things after that. He ultimately didn't have the required turn of foot late on, but stuck to the task admirably in any case. I'd hope the finish here can see him to good effect given the way he stayed on there, with the potential concern being an overall lack of pace in the race, but equally he could just be asked to bowl along at his own pace this time out rather than be asked for too much early on. In 6 races from the last 6 on this going over course and distance, stalls 10 and above have taken 4 of the wins, so stall 14 looks a positive.

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14:04 2:04 Newcastle

Cold Case

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@12.00

Lose

-50

At double figure odds in places, Cold Case looked of interest. Ran very little last year, but did win first time up, he’s seemingly not the easiest to get right. He’s against a couple of animals that are genuine Group 1 horses in Kinross and perhaps less so Spycatcher, but Cold Case has got a Group 2 entry in the offing so there must be a general feeling that he’s better than a group 3 horse. It’s his debut on the AW so that is an unknown even if his dam won on it. The shape of the race and his draw swayed me in the end to think he could be hard to keep out of the frame if he’s ready, as with pace on either flank he’ll have the benefit of the rail and two of them could get a bit of a jump on this field and be hard to peg back, and I’d hope this one has got a bit more class than the outsider of the field in stall 1.

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28 June 2024

18:00 6:00 Newcastle

Glimpsed

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

I'm happy to have a small wager that Glimpsed can improve for the both the step up in trip and switching to the AW here. Slowly away on two runs this season, she's looked a bit dis-organised on both those starts, but has been doing her best work at the finish. She was running into blind alleys at Epsom when behind Chic Colombine, but it was to her credit that she finished as close as she did to that horse who reopposes plenty shorter here, especially given the latter seemingly had clear air to go at and took a while to pick up. She should get a fairer crack of the whip here, and if she can stay in touch and get away a bit better I do think she can be involved in the shake up. The increased trip can help that, even if there looks to be some guaranteed pace. She's related to winners over this distance, and her Dam's progeny are 3 from 8 on the AW so could be a source of improvement.

26 June 2024

16:40 4:40 Carlisle

Rogue Sea

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@19.00

Lose

-50

Rogue Sea I thought could be of interest at a fair price in the Carlisle Bell. He hasn’t run over a mile yet, and has faded out of things at about the mile point on a number of occasions. He’s got plenty to prove on form over further, but he’s bred to be smarter than he’s shown, out of a 112 rated mare and a half brother to a couple of 100+ horses. He’s close to the top of the speed ratings here for this step back in trip so should be able to live with it, and for a horse that could well go forward from a decent high draw he looks to have some interesting factors in his favour. His best effort by far has come on quick ground, so whilst there’s a bit of rain around it looks like it will remain fairly quick.

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15:05 3:05 Carlisle

Simple Star

Daily Racing

25 EW

@51.00

Lose

-50

Went close off this mark on reappearance, and whilst two subsequent runs haven’t worked out well up in class, he can benefit for a drop back to this level. With Jason Hart back on having racked up a record of 122 on board, he could well prove to be a pace angle in a race that lacks an obvious forward goer. If he can go as he did last time, the reduced trip could be in his favour here too as he was only headed with a couple of furlongs to go. Trainer has a very fair strike rate here, her best by far over the last 5 years, and whilst the market support isn’t their for her charge I think he’s worth a play in an open race.

1 member found this comment useful

25 June 2024

16:17 4:17 Beverley

Silver Gunn

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.00

Lose

-50

Silver Gunn looked worth a small interest coming out of a 7 runner race that has seen 3 horses come out and place since. He’s dropped a couple of lbs to a mark of 78 for what was a fair enough 4th, and noting his last three wins have come off marks of between 78-80 he could be ready to go in again. Peak efforts have been on GF at Windsor, and notably perhaps he won 3rd time up last year. Generally consistent with RPRs above 78 on 12 of 15 runs since 2022, he’s vulnerable to the 4yos given his exposure but looks a genuine enough horse and will probably get a solid enough pace, or even be allowed to make it to enable him to settle a bit better.

1 member found this comment useful

22 June 2024

17:05 5:05 Royal Ascot

Unequal Love

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionOdds taken at 17.00

@17.00

Win

480

An untouched mark of 102 looks rather unfathomable to me for Unequal Love, who was 5th in a Group 2 last time finishing in and around horses rated plenty higher. She won well on seasonal reappearance in a Listed event, beating a 102 rated horse there that has followed up with a close 2nd in Listed company. Her 1 blip has come on GF ground, but that was over 7f and she shaped very much better than the result there before not staying. A lack of real pace around in this could help her see out this stiff 6, and indeed she could even be one to take it forward from stall 1 as she has been close up in the past. Her last run just marks her out as a genuine Group horse, especially being that close to the very smart Regional who has backed up that run this week.

1 member found this comment useful

16:25 4:25 Royal Ascot

Boiling Point

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@26.00

Lose

-50

A pretty wide open race potentially even with River Tiber a strong fav, and the front two looking worthy of their prices. In the end I landed on the likeable Boiling Point who has shown a decent turn of foot on quick ground previously when getting nutted by Aljanaabi as a 2yo. He looked value for greater than the finishing distance to me when beating Bold Style last time, and whilst he'll need to take a major leap forward to get competitive in this event I think he's got enough positives at the price. I like the face he's been freshened up for this having been off 50 days, and Marquand being on is an immediate plus for me as I just think he can eek something extra out of this horse who can take a bit of stoking up. I think he's drawn well to get into a battle with Haatem, so I'm hoping he can look him in the eye and give him something to think about late on and Marquand can prove a bit of a difference in the drive.

1 member found this comment useful

15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot

Swingalong

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 17.00 on 21/06 at 21:470.15 deduction for Kinross@6.50 withdrawn at 07:01R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 16.00 x (1-0.15) = 14.60Best Odds Guaranteed SP 15.00 used instead of 14.60 BOG

@15.00

Win

Swingalong was better than the bare result against some race fit horses at York where Washington Heights cut across her at which point her race was run. She's entitled to improve, for all she's had a different prep coming to Ascot this year where she has an excellent record. 3rd in the Commonwealth Cup behind high class Shaquille and Little Big Bear, she also finished 4th in the Champion Stakes albeit behind a couple of these. 213 with GF in the going description suggests she can find something for the fast ground, and drawn around a couple of the principles I'd hope she's in and around the action at the sharp end.

1 member found this comment useful

14:30 2:30 Royal Ascot

Hot Like Me

Daily Racing

25 EW

@67.00

Lose

-50

The one that I ended up having some minor intrigue in was Richard Spencers Hot Like Me. He's been having a poor week with his 2yo's, but they were all coming in here with run, and his record of 6/12 a place with 2yo debutants in the last year, winning with 3, appealed as some sort of angle for this horse. Breeding for this horse suggests she will appreciate the quick ground, and if this is run at an almost inevitable clip she's also got the stamina in there to stay on both sides of her pedigree. She's possibly drawn on the right side to make the most of that too with a pace angle in the highest stall. Hollie Doyle has been so unlucky this week with 5 places, 3 of which were in the 2yo races, and I think with not too much to aim at she looks of interest enough at the odds however unlikely a winner she may seem.

1 member found this comment useful

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