JackpotRod

I'll get you an odds on shots beaten, but also give you some long odds winners with hopefully some insightful reasoning to help you to decide whether to follow me in or not. Back all my own selections with my own cash.

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JackpotRod's Tips History

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09 November 2024
15:45 3:45 Doncaster

Adjuvant

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

One of the trickier handicaps of the season, with countless angles, but I thought you could chance Adjuvant to be staying on late in this big field scenario. Given the worry he is he wants further, he’ll want a fair pace to aim at. That doesn’t look absolutely guaranteed, but the nature of the field size will probably see 2 or more pressing on. The ground is of most interest given he posted RPRs of 98 and 104 on his two handicap efforts with soft or worse in the description. That does suggest a mark adjusted for claim of 89 could be within reach for him, and with just two races in his legs this season he could just be a bit of a fresh fly in the ointment against some of the up and comers.
15:30 3:30 Wincanton

Riskintheground

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Lord Accord is interesting at the top of the market given he’s been a wide margin winner on his two starts this season, latest over course and distance. This is clearly much harder, but he is to be feared off his light weight even if this might be a step too far. As an option, although I have some doubts over his stamina, Riskintheground ran a good race last time out at Cheltenham when sneaking into the race late on. He got outstayed up the hill there, but perhaps got found out by his weight carry. He fared best of those held up with ease as he challenged the front two. He's a full brother to Frontal Assault who, granted, doesn’t have a great strike rate, but is proven over this sort of trip albeit with many blots, so I still think he’s worth another go at it, and indeed it’s his furthest trip yet. At the very least, he should bounce off the ground which could be half the battle in this, and he’s a fair enough each-way price in places to give him a go.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Aintree

Gaboriot

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 11.00 used instead of 10.00 takenBOG

@11.00

Win

25

Chances galore in an open Sefton, and Greenall & Guerriero are looking to repeat the feat with Gaboriot, who looked of most interest to me. 1/2 a length away from being a 6-time winner last season, he progressed from a mark of 110 to 127. He did unseat in the Fox Hunters here as his only blip, and whilst he did look a bit labored over these fences at times, you have to factor in he’ll be saddling the best part of 2 stone less here on these terms. It looked like jockey error that unshipped him at the Canal Turn, so I’d hope with Henry Brooke aboard, he’s in more assured hands with his good recent record in the race. The horse did start pinging the fences as soon as he’d lost the jockey as well, and went on to win the race riderless! Hopefully, he’ll get a nice front rank position and make the most of a featherweight carry despite having it to prove off in a sense off this mark back in handicaps.
1 member found this comment useful
08 November 2024
15:35 3:35 Exeter

Egbert

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@15.00

Lose

-50

Egbert has an entry in the Coral Gold Cup and probably needs to improve his mark to get into that, so I thought that was interesting enough in that connections think he’s capable of mixing it in a race of that nature. If he is, then surely he can get competitive in this 0-130. The visor goes back on, in which he is 1/1. His PU over 4m can be ignored, otherwise he is 2/4 over fences, and notably 3/3 a place with Cannon aboard (he wasn’t on for his two pull-ups over fences). He may be a tough watch and off the bridle early, but he’s shown himself to be fairly gutsy if he wants to be, and with his best efforts in good ground, that should be no inconvenience. With King in good form this season, I’ll chance him to go well.
14:25 2:25 Exeter

Scarface

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

The only one coming here with the benefit of a run is Scarface, though he does come up against horses with sound fresh records with multiple wins between them off breaks. Scarface himself has also run well fresh, so it’s puzzling in that sense, but I thought it of some sort of interest that Cobden was riding for Tizzard given Nicholls has a horse in the race that is half the price with Frost aboard. This track and trip can be rather searching, I always think, so to take one that can get further whilst also taking to good ground, and being a clear bottom weight to boot with the champ aboard, I just thought Tizzard’s 2nd string looked a bit wrong price-wise. There's a chance he also gets a soft lead, and if Cobden can make good use of him off bottom weight, he could test some of these who don’t look outright superstars and saddle big weights as a result of this not being the strongest renewal. Cobden has a decent recent record in the race, as do the Tizzards.
06 November 2024
14:55 2:55 Chepstow

Luna Run

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@13.00

Win

35

A couple of decent efforts at 3m+, including on return where it was pretty testing at a hard-to-get Plumpton. Some better ground will suit her, with the majority of her labored efforts coming with soft/heavy in the description. If she can improve 2nd time up for the season, she can be in the fight late on off a featherweight. Indeed, the fact she went as well as she did on GS that looked more like soft suggests she can be competitive in the right conditions. There should be no hiding place in this big field even without guaranteed pace, so I think it’s worth chancing one that looks guaranteed to get the trip.
1 member found this comment useful
05 November 2024
15:00 3:00 Warwick

Maninsane

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Inevitably vulnerable to younger legs, but this horse went well on reappearance. Whilst probably best caught fresh, I still think he looks overpriced if anywhere near his best. He’s a clear bottom weight with potential to improve for the run at least. He’s up a lb for the run last time when well clear of most of the field. The balance of his form suggests his best runs come between September and November. With his trainer having a solid record here over fences (14/28 a place in the last 5 years), it’s interesting he’s chanced here for the first time over them. As said, there are plenty of younger legs in the 'could be anything' category, but his price compensates enough for what will be his lowest weight carry in this class of race in a handicap.
04 November 2024
14:57 2:57 Kempton

Ludos Landing

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Won over CD in a time that would have won 3 of the last 4 renewals of this. And whilst he has some ground to make up with the winner that day, I don't think it justifies the price variance between him and Siempre Arturo. The latter burst through from the rear, somehow getting a dream run up the inside with seemingly no chance. It’s unlikely he’ll be afforded the same luxury today, so I’d rather back one on better terms that fared well behind him with his own fairly inconvenienced trip. The handicapper may have him in his grip, but he’s 2-1-4 at the course in 2024, and any repeat of his last two efforts can see him bang there in this competitive series final.
14:30 2:30 Plumpton

Whydah Gally

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@10.00

Win

31

The favorite looks interesting first time up over fences, but I do wonder just if he wants to go this far saddling this sort of weight, so looks opposable to me. Let alone the fact he was favorite when I backed him last time up and he let me down. Perhaps that’s playing into it, but I felt Whydah Gally was big enough to take him on with. Inconsistent, but he stays plenty further than this and is on the right side of the weight carries here now just 4 lbs above his winning mark. He also won off 1 lb higher first time up last season, and with Tizzard being 10 from 31 (19 placed) over fences here in the last 3 years, his chasers here should always be respected here, also noting he’s 3/5 with them here this season. A winner on good ground off 123 over hurdles, he’s clearly capable on a going day.
02 November 2024
15:45 3:45 Ascot

Highstakesplayer

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 10.00 on 01/11 at 16:070.15 deduction for Our Power@6.00 withdrawn at 07:41R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 9.00 x (1-0.15) = 8.65

@8.65

Win

13

There looks to be enough competition for some sort of lead on here to think this could well be pretty hard to get. Class could well out with Chianti Classico looking a Grade 1 horse, and actually his mark isn't too bad considering he could well be that. You can pick holes in everything, but I think Highstakesplayer is worth a shout as a real unexposed one at these distances. 3 efforts over 3m so far have yielded a record of 211, with his only blip really since 2022 being over 2m4f on heavy ground, with the report that he was turned out too quickly. His last 3 efforts of breaks between 51 and 450+ days have resulted in 3 wins, so on that evidence he is best caught fresh, and he's on the right side of the weight carries in ground that should suit him. He'll need to improve to be considered well handicapped off this increased mark, but given his unexposed profile I think that can be chanced.
1 member found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 Ascot

Rightsotom

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Fiercely Proud was a well-backed non-runner last time after unseating at the start, so should be treated with respect having gone well fresh in the past. Secret Squirrel is closely tied into him, and the pair sit atop the market. But with a host of alternatives, they kind of make the market a bit for me. A bit of a flyer is possibly Rightsotom, who is thrown in off a mark of 126 on some of his Irish form. Transferring to Joe Tizzard coming off a huge break here, he's got form in and around some of the best hurdlers in the game, finishing 6th at a massive 200/1 in the 2023 Triumph Hurdle on just his 2nd start. He followed that up with a solid albeit well-beaten 4th in a Grade 1 at Aintree, before winning cosily and beating a pair of horses now rated just 10lbs or so inferior to this mark with ease. There is an easy lead in the offing here if he wants it, and he has made all in the past, so he could be sent forward to just see what he does off this mark.
1 member found this comment useful
14:35 2:35 Ascot

Beylerbeyi

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

If Tripoli Flyer improves for his obstacles, then he should easily prove the best of these. But he's priced as such, and it looks like anyone's race other than that. I was minded to give Beylerbeyi on hurdles debut a chance, as he'll cope with the ground, and his best efforts on the flat have been over the longest trips he's faced. With a lack of pace seemingly involved, this could turn into a sprint for home, which I think just bodes well for him if he takes to the obstacles. Of some sort of note in that regard, his grandmother did produce 2 hurdles winners, most notably Sea Lord, who was a 115-rated Group winner on the flat and turned into a 152-rated hurdler that also excelled on good ground. There's no guarantee, of course, but they are at least some interesting genes. He's got match practice from the flat on his side over most of these, so if some of these come here in need of a run with other targets in mind, he could spring some sort of a surprise.
1 member found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Ascot

Issar DAiry

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 19.00 used instead of 17.00 takenBOG

@19.00

Win

64

Issar D'Airy doesn't look like the first choice on jockey bookings for the Moores, but I liked the fact he was on better terms with Martator here than for beating him by 4L on last year's reappearance in what was a facile success. He gets 2lbs more courtesy of Freddie Mitchell's claim, and for one that looks fairly well guaranteed to be doing his best work late over this shorter trip in a race that looks to have at the very least some guaranteed pace. He's a couple of lbs out of the handicap, but the claim has him a few lbs well in, and he's been used to saddling much bigger weights in, albeit easier races than this. Class could out with Master Chewy at the top of the market, but I'd be much more minded in taking one off a featherweight to cause an upset than a class horse at 7/2 in a race like this, so I'll give Issar D'Airy a chance.
1 member found this comment useful
12:55 12:55 Ascot

Gentlemans Relish

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@9.00

Lose

-50

Chasing home a 118-rated horse off levels last time and getting an added 3lb claim to this mark of 108 could prove fruitful enough for Gentleman's Relish to be of interest. He's proven himself over 2m5f there, so this trip should prove to be no bother. He rather leaps over his hurdles, so would benefit from being a bit faster in that regard. However, he did get caught in a barging batch approaching the 2nd last when last seen, which seemingly put him off enough to tempt him into a bad mistake, which he did well to recover from, in truth. It was to his credit that he recovered from that to stick on with the front pair, and barring that mistake, things could have been a lot different, and he wouldn't be as low as 108. He did win on reappearance last year prior to a couple of PUs, so that finish last season was a step in the right direction, and I'd hope he can build on that going handicapping.
1 member found this comment useful
31 October 2024
15:45 3:45 Newcastle

Ginger Pointe

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Chemical Warfare could take some stopping in a hat-trick bid, but I thought Ginger Pointe could be of minor interest. Down a lb and with a claimer back on, he’s 4 lbs lower than last time up in class, which gives him a fairly paltry 10 st 3 lbs to track round. He’s been solid in 4 efforts in 2024, and I see no reason why he can’t go well in this grade and continue some solid enough form. If Williamson can hold onto him a bit longer than the horse was allowed to do last time, I think he can get competitive.
15:35 3:35 Stratford

Kapamazov

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@19.00

Lose

-50

Macfin intrigued off his absence, but he’d need to better his handicap chase form from previous years to get really competitive here. His Point form suggests he can, but I’d rather look elsewhere than chance him off this weight. Kapamazov looked interesting at a price in this big field, so I thought he looked worth a small play despite having a poor reappearance run in 2023. He jumped well on chase debut saddling 12st, and wasn’t beaten all that far given the weight carry. He travelled into the race well, and this significantly reduced trip looked of interest in that regard as he was also keen early. Down in the weight carries here for a trainer among the winners (3 from 7 in the last couple of weeks), I thought he was worth a small nibble in spite of his form not suggesting he’s particularly well handicapped.
30 October 2024
14:08 2:08 Nottingham

Miss Cantik

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

She probably needs a repeat of her Leicester effort that got us a winner on her reappearance. But if she gets another enterprising ride, she could be an interesting one to peg back over this reduced trip. She’s been up in trip since that effort and remains 3 from 3 at a mile. In ground that could be hard to make up ground in, she looks well worth a play at a double-figure price at a track where front runners can fare well. She’s probably worth an each-way cover as Al Mubhir was close to pegging her back in that Leicester race and reopposes here. 3 places with Sky, but a shorter price.
1 member found this comment useful
13:20 1:20 Fakenham

Phone Home

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@9.00

Lose

-50

Chase debut for this horse, as well as it being her handicap debut. So, assuming she takes to it, plenty of her form looks to have her well handicapped. Most notably, she was a solid 2nd on her seasonal reappearance last year when finishing close behind a horse that went on to be rated 137 now, so a mark of 98, also a lb below her official mark, looks almost criminal on that basis. Granted, she didn’t go on from that, but she was racing against better horses than this off level weights in the main, so looks worth a chance here to me if she can repeat that reappearance effort. With Snowden in fair form too, that adds a nice boost (12 winners from 23 places in October, 5 winning).
1 member found this comment useful
26 October 2024
14:55 2:55 Cheltenham

Idem

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@9.50

Lose

-50

I thought Idem looked worth a chance here, staying on late last time when seemingly beaten. That race has been franked by the winner and 4th since too as a bonus. A good ground record of 112, this is clearly a much more competitive race than he’s run in so far, but that does give him a feather weight of 10st to take round as a result. He looked worth a small chance in a trappy race.
1 member found this comment useful
14:20 2:20 Cheltenham

Chasing Fire

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@13.00

Lose

-50

Possibly not the easiest to predict, but he is 2/2 when fresh as well as winning on debut, and lugged a big weight in soft ground to victory over 3m when last seen. Early season ground shouldn’t go amiss here, and Bowen has noted they’re “realised he needs good ground”, so perhaps winning over 3m on soft suggests he could be even better in these conditions. He gets his joint lowest weight carry here despite being off a mark of 140 which does speak to the competitiveness of the race, but he goes there with plenty of positives for me to give him a chance.
1 member found this comment useful
25 October 2024
16:45 4:45 Cheltenham

Jetronic

Daily Racing

41 EWNAP

@51.00

Lose

-82

Callum Pritchard's 1 from 55 record has to put you off backing Pauling's favorite, however well in he looks with a 10lb claim. The alternatives don’t leap off the page, but I can see a case for Jetronic, who has switched from Nicholls to Gary Moore. Now, he’s had a poor effort lately, but notably, his best effort was on seasonal reappearance last year over course and distance on good ground when chasing home the smart My Mate Mozzie over fences. It hasn’t worked out too well since, although he did get his head in front at Plumpton in soft ground, suggesting a well-run race could suit him here. He could be granted a soft lead if ridden as he’s been ridden, and that’s no bad thing here. Overall, I just think he looks a wild price, so I’m happy to take a swing at him.
15:35 3:35 Cheltenham

Planned Paradise

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I’ve long held the belief this horse wants about 5 miles, so this test at 3m1f round here could prove up his street. He doesn’t know where the winning post is, races lazily, and can give no respect to his fences, but the addition of Gina Andrews provides plenty of intrigue as she’s simply excellent over a fence. With the horse towards the bottom of the weights against some horses with some fair weight carries, I’d be hopeful she can keep him in contention and he can be doing some decent work late. The reintroduction of cheekpieces is of interest as he’s gone well on 4 of the 6 occasions that he’s had them on.
1 member found this comment useful
13:15 1:15 Cheltenham

Letterston Lily

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.00

Lose

-50

Looks to have the stamina for this test in what looks likely to be a fairly searching gallop, and a 10st 4lb weight carry with Sean Bowen aboard could be fairly lethal if she can get round. She unseated at the first last time, having chased home subsequent Persian War winner the time before that in receipt of just 5lbs. That in itself reflects a mark of 114 very well with that horse now 130+. The 2nd has also gone on to finish 2nd again to give a bit of depth to the form. She’d previously had a 136-rated horse in behind who has won since too. She doesn’t look ground dependent, and assuming she doesn’t get bashed around too much by the older horses, there’s a good chance she can go well.
24 October 2024
15:20 3:20 Ludlow

Another Day Out

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@13.00

Win

35

Pulled up on reappearance last year, this horse put in a much better effort first time up this time around and has been sent up in class as a result. She threatened to be pulled up in truth, but dug in off a big weight and actually looked to be dragging herself into contention at one point. I think there was plenty of promise in that for an improved effort, and with a lesser weight burden she could prove a threat. Already a winner over fences, she’s down a lb for that reappearance, and also notably she did step forward for the run in 2022, winning 2nd time up. The trainer is 9/13 a place here in the last 5 years over fences.
14:45 2:45 Ludlow

Sweet Caryline

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

This horse probably showed enough on her last start to be considered here at the price. She was far enough back before staying on past beaten horses, and whilst no match for now 124 rated Huelgoat there, that horse did win after that too. With a 105 rated horse well behind who placed after that, I think that form is probably better than it reads in the context of this race against horses all around the 110 sort of level, albeit anything could improve enough to run away with this. Tizzard has started the season in fair old form and has had 10 of his last 13 runners in the places, 3 of which have won. A tongue tie is added here, with which he is 11/30 a place when applying for the first time in the last two years, with 6 of those winning, which is a more than fair record.
23 October 2024
19:40 7:40 Kempton

Merlin The Wizard

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

A wildly open handicap with chances galore, but I'll side with one in Merlin the Wizard who was close behind one on debut here having sat in rear and subsequently beat now 111 rated Botanical on his only other AW start, also here. That was over 7f where he made all although that doesn't generally seem how he's been ridden, often held up. A wide draw may force Hollie Doyle's hand to do one or the other, frankly I don't mind either despite him needing to improve markedly on two runs over 7f so far this season. The first of those was a right off as he was far too keen, and he got outpaced in his last run but did stick to the task. He did make all from this stall when winning over 7f here, so I'm hopeful the return here can just spark something for him.
1 member found this comment useful
16:05 4:05 Newmarket

Mallavelly

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@19.00

Lose

-50

She may want drying ground, which looks a possibility, and Newmarket does drain well, so I’m happy to overlook soft ground as an excuse. But I thought Mallavelly looked interesting down the bottom here. She chased home now 95-rated Bolsena here in April off levels, which reflects a mark of 78 fairly well. That effort can be marked up as well, as she raced in a near-side group of 3 that got outpaced, and she stuck on well when the groups converged in what was a race run faster than standard. Three tries up in trip since haven’t worked out, but she’s not been too far out of the frame on two starts back at this trip (a bit further at Epsom) since. I’d be hopeful that a low weight can help her get competitive in this open handicap. Cheekpieces are added to find a spark too, and with her being a 500k gns purchase and 0/8 so far, it’s fair to say she hasn’t repaid her fee.
1 member found this comment useful
22 October 2024
15:55 3:53 Exeter

Earth King

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.00

Win

240

A fairly open race, 6/1 the field, and a small chance taken on Earth King. Pulled up on reappearance last year, he went much better this time around. Posted wide throughout, he was coming into the race nicely before making a mistake 4 out. Whilst he recovered somewhat, that seemed to knock enough out of him and he didn’t see it out. Harry Cobden takes over and he knows the horse, having been aboard for his comfortable win 4 starts back, off just a few lbs lower than this. He posted a peak RPR following his first completion last year, so if he can step on again as much as that, I think he’s got a decent enough chance for an in-form trainer.
1 member found this comment useful
21 October 2024
16:45 4:45 Pontefract

Shamran

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.00

Lose

-50

Another one that's a fairly rare foray, with the Charltons previously just sending 2 horses to Pontefract when training together, 1 winning and the other placing. Now going solo, Harry has sent one here to finish 3rd of 6 and sends another in Shamran who goes up in trip from a mile. Two turf runs over a mile have been much the best, and with some distance in the family with his dam being by Galileo, this entire can surely only improve for it as well as some cut in the ground. His unraced dam was out of the dam who produced the excellent Moonlight Cloud who excelled on soft, so there is a genuine case there for finding something for it. His 2nd at Windsor behind an 86 rated horse giving 5lbs and ahead of a 92 rated horse off levels suggests a mark of 82 remains well within reason.
1 member found this comment useful
15:45 3:45 Pontefract

The Eyes Have It

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

A fairly rare foray into Pontefract handicaps for Haggas in which he is 8/15 a place in the last 5 years, with a couple winning. Overall he’s 6/7 a place here in the last year, and 2 wins from 4 when combining with todays jockey in that period (all tracks). Rodriguez is in form, with 10 placed from his last 15, and rides well here having won with 10 of his last 60 runners at the track, including 4 of his last 7. He sends one sprinting that has been campaigned over 7f so far, and prominent fading efforts over that trip suggest this drop in trip could be fine if she can go the pace which looks fairly guaranteed. She needs to the rediscover the zest of her initial first two efforts, but up in class for this first crack at 6 men’s she’s on the right side of the weights here and whilst she’s up against some hardy types I think she’s unexposed enough to chance despite her want for the ground proving a puzzle.
1 member found this comment useful
19 October 2024
15:55 3:55 Ascot

Kings Gambit

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

3.55 @ Ascot - Kings Gambit 25/1 7.5ew (b365) The fact that Murphy steps off Sea The Fire in favour of Kings Gambit is potentially an indication of this horses chances of springing a surprise. They’ve all got some catching up to do with Economics, and Calandagan in truth, so you could just be playing for 3rd but the pair kind of make the market and leave it open for something to improve and go a bit wild with. The big field could force a strong pace, something that hasn't exactly worked in King's Gambit's favour previously in small fields. That was less the case last time, where he was getting weight from Los Angeles and lost, and on level terms he's probably priced about right. The latter had a hard race in the Arc though clearly, and this is a quick turnaround from that so there's every chance for me that he turns that round over a shorter trip which doesn't look a negative. The way he stayed this trip at Ascot is encouraging, coming from last to 2nd and not catching Jayarebe which ties him in with Economics too.
1 member found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 Ascot

Quddwah

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

He's got something to find with Charyn, but the way Quddwah outfought Docklands over course and distance a few starts back with soft in the description remains fixed in my mind. That entitles him to be a bit better than he showed last time, and he did that in a time which would have matched Baaeed when winning this race on similar ground in 2021. He looks to me like he won't mind a bit of cut, and he's a big, burly, strong traveller. Perhaps most notably, that was the only time Buick has been aboard, and he's back on for this tilt. The fact that the horse is bred to get a couple of extra furlongs could bode well over this stiff mile for a race that should be run pretty truly with a number of potential pace angles involved.
1 member found this comment useful
14:35 2:35 Ascot

Village Voice

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 19.00 used instead of 17.00 takenBOG

@19.00

Win

64

There's something in the form of Village Voice that I liked enough to chance at the odds, and the style of her win last time was hard to ignore. She cantered into it from a forward position and looked to have plenty left in the tank there. That was off a fair break too, so she should still be nice and fresh having had a light campaign. For wise, she had Melo Melo comfortably held in 3rd, and that horse finished about 2L behind Quantanamera at Saint-Cloud over shorter previously, so to have the latter so much shorter than the selection doesn't look particularly right to me. The more rain the better for her it seems, and whilst the low draw does concern on this track, she did get away well last time to get a forward position so I'd hope she can do the same here.
1 member found this comment useful
13:55 1:55 Ascot

Bucanero Fuerte

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

This is an absolute puzzle, with cases to be made for almost every one of these with form lines all over the place. There's potentially two races going to happen here, with pace low (Audience) and mid to high, though with a few forward angles high they could press each other on quite nicely with the mid to high drawn Swingalong and Art Power drawn alongside each other. There is every chance they end up going too hard and the pace collapses a bit, but I feel like they could give Bucanero Fuerte a good tow into this from 15 and he's worth taking a chance on at the odds. Unexposed on soft going, he did win in Soft to Heavy on debut and is a full brother to a soft ground Group 1 winner in Wooded. A stiff 6f might not be up his street having been found out over 7f before so that is a concern, especially as he was sent down in trip last time. He travelled well into the Sprint Cup when having to make his own running, but he won’t have to do that here, and hopefully a light campaign can see him go well.
1 member found this comment useful
13:20 1:20 Ascot

Alsakib

Daily Racing

25 EW

@67.00

Lose

-50

Alsakib stays at 2m here, albeit a slightly reduced trip, and he just looks a bit overpriced based on one poor run last time. He's got a lot to find on ratings, granted, but I think he can find improvement for the ground being on the softer side. His sole win this year came with soft in the going description, and this time last year he was winning at Newmarket on soft having gone well at Goodwood on soft too back in August 2023. On balance, and the fact he's taking his chance here, he just looks overpriced with the race likely to be a bit more run to suit here than last time with some obvious pace involved. He's got plenty to do with Kyprios and some of the principles, but he's unexposed enough to take a chance on at the odds under the right conditions.
2 members found this comment useful
16 October 2024
17:03 5:03 Wetherby

Do No Wrong

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTETip made at odds of 13.00 on 16/10 at 08:180.20 deduction for Tribal Glory@4.50 withdrawn at 08:53R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 12.00 x (1-0.20) = 10.60

@10.60

Win

23

Do No Wrong is up in class here, and bottom weight as a result, with an extra 7 removed to make him clear down the bottom. Two runs over this sort of trip on GS ground have resulted in two wins, so whilst he's handicapped to the hilt, he could get involved here at an EW price if running to his best. A lack of pace would concern slightly if he's held up, but it could also mean he stays in touch and stays ahead off that low weight.
1 member found this comment useful
16:00 4:00 Wetherby

Prairie Wolf

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Two forward goes looked of some interest in the shape of Prairie Wolf and Whizz Kid. The former appears more at the odds, with a 100% place record when fresh (332). He’s acquitted himself with credit off a 10lb higher chase mark, and he stays further than this so company up front is no cause for concern if he can go the pace. Allmankind has been a bit of a frantic front runner in the past, and whilst it can be good to blast round here I do wonder if the weight carry could hold him back for all he could outclass these. Either way, I think Prairie Wolf can pick the pieces and spring a surprise as outsider of the field as it stands. Sue Smiths dreadful form tempers enthusiasm somewhat, but I’m happy to overlook that for a small play.
1 member found this comment useful
15 October 2024
16:58 4:58 Newcastle

Celtic Warrior

Daily Racing

70 WINNAP

@6.00

Win

350

A sole Andrew Balding runner sent to Newcastle looked of interest, and would have been of major interest at the opening price. As it is, Celtic Warrior still looks worth a play at his odds with a race setup to suit here. PJ gets the ride, and is 4/5 a place with 2 wins here for Balding in the last year. Heavy ground was a reasonable excuse for a fading effort last time, but with no obvious pace here he could latch onto some of the pace in 1-3 to be in a good spot in 4. A previous 2nd off this mark bodes we for another try at the trip, and being 321 on the AW suggests he can find something for the return to the surface.
12 October 2024
16:00 4:00 Chepstow

La Domaniale

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

A properly competitive affair with holes to pick everywhere. I ended up just thinking that La Dominale has shown enough to think she could be a danger down the bottom here, and in addition she gets the help of a 10lb claimer who has proved to be value for it so far. An adjusted mark of 122 and a weight carry of 9st6lbs for one that looks guaranteed to stay just ended up being too tempting at the odds available. She gave a stone to a now 124 rated horse back in August and wasn’t beaten far, which just adds to the feeling that she’s in a good place off this adjusted mark. Overnight rain probably does her no favours, but I’d hope the weight carry is enough to counteract that with a dry forecast tomorrow. A guaranteed gallop should also play into her hands.
1 member found this comment useful
15:40 3:40 Newmarket

Ndaawi

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Ran well in a Grade 3 handicap hurdle, getting 5lbs from Nurburgring, who is now rated 150. That staying-on effort can probably be upgraded a bit in the context of his hurdle mark of 135, suggesting he is just better than a 92-rated flat horse. He didn’t prove to be better than 91 at Ascot over further than this, but given that it was on quick ground, he ran far better than was obvious. He travelled into the race on the inside rail and just got stuck behind some horses off the final bend, getting chopped up on a couple of occasions. Back in trip down this long finish, he can prove a different proposition with some unchecked momentum, and Spencer could be ideal for him if he can stay on the bridle for longer than is necessary, as Spencer likes to do.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 York

Malc

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Malc ended up tempting me here given he beat the Fav Room Service off levels in May. He gets 6lbs here, and can be forgiven a subsequent flop in a Group 1 on quick ground over Ascots stiff 6. On balance he should prove well handicapped off a reduced mark of 99 based on his Newbury 4th behind horses all rated higher, with even a now 110 rated horse in behind that day. It’s an ask to win a race like this off a break, but he has gone well fresh in the past with his sole win being on debut. 3yos have struggled in this overall, but a return to soft ground is interesting anyway given the way he stayed on in soft Ground when outpaced over 5f in the Flying Childers, and there are enough soft ground performers in the family tree to be positive about that.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Newmarket

Nightwalker

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@13.00

Lose

-50

There looks a fair fight for the lead on here, and I feel like that could help Nightwalker settle a bit for this try up in trip. This half brother to Whitebeam looks big bold and raw, and whilst he didn’t beat much last time he did so with authority, and his debut room probably marks him up as one that could improve. Missing the break, running around a bit and then finishing on his own away from the field, he was barely reached for so it was surely a learning experience behind the smart looking Mautauri Bay who has franked soundly since. He just looks the type to me that could fall down the dip and all of a sudden everything makes sense to him, so more on instinct than anything else I think he’s worth a swing as the current outsider. With just two places to play for, I’m happy for an all or nothing play.
1 member found this comment useful
11 October 2024
16:45 4:45 Newmarket

Forever Blue

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

Super competitive, and a bit of a “why” chance on Forever Blue who is lumped in here off two poor runs on quick ground. Off since July, it’s a swing at a Group 3 for her, and you just have to ask yourself why she’s in here with seemingly very little chance on paper. A glance at her pedigree suggests a horse that will improve for the step up in trip, and whilst there’s no guaranteed pace in here I do think the big field leans this towards being run quicker than anticipated. Her best efforts have come with at least some juice in the ground, so whilst drying ground is an issue it won’t be rattling. Her Dam won on the track so there’s a chance she takes to it, and whilst she’ll be ridden to get the trip there looks to be some confidence that she’ll get the trip as previously reported by Beckett in his stable tour, where he suggests in April she’d had a tough Spring and he wasn’t happy with her.
15:50 3:50 Chepstow

Diol Ker

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

I’d always be looking for a 10yo new to this sphere of Vets races, and there are a few here. This horse just about appeals at the odds off a falling mark, being just that. He’s regressed since finishing a surprise 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase in December 2022, and is now running off a 16lb lower mark on his first start for Evan Williams. He’s generally been up in trip, so back to an easier 3m is interesting in this company for a horse that hasn’t got his head in front nearly as much as I thought he had. When completing, he’s 5/6 a place in fields of 11 or smaller, which I thought was of interest for a minor play in a scenario that could suit him. Not disgraced on better ground previously, and a peak RPR did come fresh albeit some years ago.
15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Topgear

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@8.50

Win

375

Noble Dynasty’s efforts here make him a worthy Fav but he’s hardly wholly reliable with a few blots on his copybook so can be taken on so short. Topgear has a fairly consistent profile, and comes here lightly raced this season having run just twice since April. If he handles the track and is given the right ride, he could go well into the dip given the way he extended at 2f last time, and he has an ability to stay further so if he is in a forward position I’d hope he’s competitive late on. A slightly worry is if he can’t go with what looks to be a fairly hot pace. He looked to have a bit more in the tank when last seen as he got a bit lonely out in front but always looked to home them, including the reopposing Ten Bob Tony. Drying ground may end up proving to be the biggest issue for him, but he should be alright on it out of a Firm ground winning mare.
14:25 2:25 Newmarket

Magical Trail

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-50

A fairly trappy race in a sense that it looks quite open, but the price of Magical Trail tempted as a result for last years winning trainer and connections. A course success on debut in which she ran green bodes well for a return here on what looks likely to be similar ground. She was a second slower than when Desert Flower beat Flight, who opposes here, so whilst that probably sways things time wise towards the latter I do think the selection could improve for the switch to the Rowley course. She was pretty green on that debut run, but looks a strong and full filly. She was dropped in trip the next time, and having missed the kick it was all the more impressive she was able to finish the way she did having been rushed up early to take the lead. From stall 1 she could just have the benefit of the rail to help see her home, with her and Flight likely to be contesting for lead.
07 October 2024
17:02 5:02 Stratford

Everyonesacritic

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.50

Lose

-50

Looks worth an EW nibble on chase debut. Beat now 102 and 107 rated hurdlers on sole start in a P2P, so a mark of 86 could underestimate enough in the right scenario. First time over fences could be it, and with his trainer winning with 3 of his last 5 horses here over fences in class 5s, that’s an added bonus. Two runs off a break haven’t worked out, so that’s the major concern, but with 4 places available, he looks worth an EW play.
06 October 2024
16:05 4:05 Longchamp

Start Of Day

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Looked worth way less than the finishing distance behind the smart-looking Ombudsman last time in a sprint finish over course and distance. He got stuck in behind a wall of horses while the winner got a clear run up the rail. With a clear run, I don’t see why this horse wouldn’t have won in what looked a fairly decent Group 3. Stall 1 would concern if she gets stuck in behind again, and there should be a guaranteed pace so she could have horses falling back into her lap if she can stay off a stronger pace.
1 member found this comment useful
15:20 3:20 Longchamp

Continuous

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

I think a chance can be taken on Continuous. Not the choice of Ryan Moore, but with his form, there was no chance he would have switched anyway. As a result, this horse gets Soumillon again, who got to know him in a steadily run Prix Foy. He wasn’t particularly reached for late on and was better than the bare result, having to make his own running. That form needs some improvement, but he could be tuned up quite nicely for this, notably taking a few runs last year before announcing himself at York, then taking the Leger before a 5th in the Arc. It’s unlikely he’ll have to make the running here, on what is just his 4th run since an amazing effort in last year's renewal of this when he drifted back through the field entering the straight before passing beaten horses into 5th. I’d hope he gets a fair pace to aim at with a scuffle for the lead, and he could again be picking up pieces late.
1 member found this comment useful
12:55 12:55 Longchamp

Vertical Blue

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 66.00 on 05/10 at 20:51 Best Odds Guaranteed SP 100 used instead of 66.00 taken BOG

@101.00

Win

3000

Zarigana was impressive when winning over course and distance when last seen. The time wasn’t particularly sparkling, and wouldn’t have put her that close in many renewals of this race, so whilst she can clearly improve, she will have to. The one I ended up thinking was a nice price was Vertical Blue, who plainly has work to do on figures. She did well coming from last to 2nd when last seen, in a race that was won in a similar time to that which Zarigana won. Form would still have her held, but I do wonder if she could just be one that picks up some pieces where some of these aren’t certain to get the mile. Her debut is worth a watch back, where she traveled so nicely in behind before once again not quite getting there, meeting trouble in running. With distance on her dam's side, I’d hope if this run is too hard that could bring her into things at a nice price.
1 member found this comment useful

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