JackpotRod

One on the upgrade in a tricky race, most recently beating now 98 rated Crepe Suzette off level weights in July suggesting a rating of 84 should remain well within her scope. The real question mark is the ground, but her dam acted on it so there is probably enough hope there that she will. There’s no obvious front runner in here, but this horse has made all in the past, and with no stamina fears she may be best served in doing so again.

Tricky, trappy, and the rest of it. Angles all over the place, but I landed on Kansas, who isn’t perhaps the stable's first choice. However, he’s tied in closely with that horse, having beaten Learntodiscover a similar distance over a furlong further. That proven ability to get further could bode well in a race that doesn’t lack for forward goers. He’s shown some decent speed to match his evident stamina reserves, and whilst this clearly demands a career best, I think things could fall right for one that’s proved hard to win with. Drawn on the mid to high side isn’t a plus on the face of it, but mid to high have taken this race on 6 of the last 7 runnings. Dangers abound, and I can see almost anything getting competitive, but overall this horse looked a big price with Marquand aboard.

Big Mojo looked the one that was most inconvenienced by Goodwood last time, and also got hampered late on. He came back for more, so this step back to 6 should be up his street as he was under the pump from a long way out over that fast 5. He was doing solid work late in the Sandy Lane Stakes here on reappearance, having had a troubled passage, and was even eased down late but still running on. He showed he stayed a strongly run 6f at Newmarket when No Half Measures got the better of him, but again he was plugging on gamely and didn’t get beaten far at all. He has form to turn around with Time For Sandals too, but he got a terrible passage in the Commonwealth Cup, and ultimately ran on really well for 7th given he was near dead last at the furlong pole. With some luck, I’d hope for a big run.

2 wins on soft as a 2yo, Mirabeau steps back in trip here having been found wanting over further so far this season. That said, he was a decent 3rd in the Epsom Derby Trial when first seen in April. Off since July, he could go well fresh, and in the context of this race, I thought it was interesting he was a bigger price than Afentiko, who he beat all ends up as a 2yo off level weights. Off similar terms here, he probably ran up to this mark on 2 of his last 3 runs over further than a mile, and while this is a big step back in trip, he looks capable of getting forward, and any additional stamina reserves will come in handy late on.

Suite Francaise I was close on, but I just can’t be backing Joe Fanning anymore personally. So I was looking at if we could have the latest in a long line of handicappers stepping into Group/Listed company and landing the spoils. With some of those higher in the ratings hard to split, in particular Ice Max and Make Me King, I thought Excellent Believe could be one to make some progress. A gritty winner over 7f here when last seen, he was value for further arguably given he got caught 3/4 wide throughout. He won with rather minimum of fuss and looked strong through the line, suggesting this new trip should work. Indeed, he has won over further, beating a horse that Arabian Crown beat a similar distance, so there is substance to that effort. Stall 3 will hopefully see him in a better spot to get a smoother run round here, and whilst ultimately he could be outclassed, he doesn’t have too much to find on official ratings whilst needing others not to run to form.

Loads to find on ratings with Regional, who surely wins this if maintaining his form. Although as a 7-year-old, he could prove vulnerable to an improver at this stage. I’ll take a small chance that Shagraan is overpriced here, given he beat the 2nd Fav at Sandown in the Charge. It’s not worked out for him since, but he’s got some smart earlier season form to his name to forgive him those two lesser efforts. He’s been in the frame on all three of his starts at Class 1 level as a 4-year-old, and he’s got handicap form in and around some of the more outstanding sprinters of the season to suggest he is capable of making a mark at this level. 3/4 a place when facing an uphill finish, I’d hope Regional will have enough competition for the lead to drag the hold-up horses into the race late on, for all that’s never really the desired tactic over this course and distance. Either way, I thought he was an enticing price ew.

Hasn’t had the best of times this season on the face of it, but he’s up against elders here for the first time and comes out best at the weights. Back over this extended mile, his 2nd behind Almeric over a mile and 1f suggests a return to that sort of trip can bring about improvement. He should get a truly run race here which can help his chances, and the fact he’s twice the price of a horse he’s beaten in Bowmaek just suggests to me he’s a touch overpriced. With doubts abound about the others, hopefully he can finally make his mark here.