JackpotRod

Something is drawing me to Pimlico Point being a touch overpriced, having had a helping hand from the handicapper for his pull-up last time. Down a few lbs, he won third time up in 2024 off a few lbs higher (his last win), and his best run in 2025 was third time up too. So, third time up here I’d hope he’s ready for a peak effort. Whilst his record over this trip so far reads URPU, his in-form trainer persists at another go over this far, which is interesting enough for me. A new jockey gets the leg up here, with Cannon being 3 from 6 for Lee. The weight to carry is a negative, but you could say that for a few of these. Back down in class too is an added bonus, hence the weight carry, and blinkers need to spark something.

Up in trip for this handicap debut. This horse's last run over this trip was chasing home a 130+ rated horse, so this mark of 101 has to be of interest in this scenario, especially as he comes into this off bottom weight. Two runs since have proved fruitless, but he wasn’t beaten too far last time. With stamina in the pedigree, 2 miles was probably never going to see him at his best. A glut of pace here should leave no hiding place, which could play into his hands down the bottom of the weights.

Horses on the lower side of the weights have taken this in the last four years. With some pace involved here, this could become fairly attritional, so a low weight looks favourable. Right down at the bottom, Emmet Mullins sneaks in Rising Dust with the steering of Sean Bowen, which looks fairly significant. While this is a step up in grade after three wins have seen a sharp rise in his mark, he does stay further than this, which should bode well for a race that should be run at a clip. He should be up with the van too, and you had to be impressed with how he dug in last time over shorter than this, having been under pressure from a long way out. He looks well worth a go at this price.

A new Hurdle recruit for Olly Murphy. He travelled well for a long way in his last bumper, finishing behind the subsequently smart Ballyfad, who has progressed to be a 147-rated hurdler since that effort in November. Not seen since that run, he is fairly lobbed in here into a Grade 2 first time up. So, whilst it would be some ask, there doesn’t appear to be an obvious out-and-out standout superstar in here. His price entices as a result of that latest effort, although I’d have a slight reluctance about him being switched off too far off the pace based on his latest two efforts. For EW purposes I think he rates a bet all the same.

Can be forgiven his latest run, saddling a big weight around Lingfield. It’s his first try at this absolute marathon trip. Courtesy of Mr Vango, he gets a nice weight carry again, down to 10st 3lbs. He’s 6/8 to place when saddling less than 11st, and 3/3 to place when saddling less than 10st 8lbs, which bodes well for a sound effort on suitable ground. A previous Welsh National winner off just a 3lb lower mark than this, his previous peak seasonal efforts have come in mid to late Feb, so hopefully he’s nicely teed up for this.

McCain booking Sean Bowen for the first time looked interesting to me on Grand Albert, who could well be teed up for this after two quiet runs so far this season. He may have just too much to find with Grand Geste, but he does get a huge swing in the weights for this and was staying in at the line last time. He’s got national pedigree, with his dam being a half-sister to a national second, so this extra yardage could eke out even more. Combined with a light weight, hopefully he can be ridden quietly again and keep trucking late.

Chased home the progressive Kikijo, who has followed up since in his last race over hurdles to now be rated 135, giving this mark of 119 a fair bit of gloss. Two efforts over fences since haven’t worked out, but he’s run okay, and he acts in the forecast surface. Bottom weight here, and handicapped to go well. He won his last race at this trip easily too.

Has got to turn around her form, but she takes a big drop in trip here and that could do the trick for her. 3-2-2-1 over 2m; she’s been poor in her last three starts, so needs this drop to the minimum trip to find significant improvement. The handicapper has relented somewhat as a result, and I do think she can be forgiven her sole start on soft when saddling a big weight last time. She’s closer to the right side of the weights in this and, on breeding at least, she should be effective in testing conditions.

A first trip to Warwick for Emmet Mullins, which is almost intriguing enough in itself to back his charge here. Top-rated, but giving some weight away, which is a problem. She may need this to turn into a test, and with pace abound it should do so when combined with the forecast ground. She looks to have the pace for this shorter trip, and is a proven performer in the mud now. Whilst she’s short enough, she looks too big to me regardless.

The seeming sole pace of Lord Baddesley could prove problematic here, but you have to have doubts about the ground with him, being 1/7 a place on soft. Le Milos is 3/3 on heavy but is short enough coming against a few younger horses that have just qualified for the Vets series. They are always more tempting, and Outlaw Peter would tempt if he were in better form. Guard Your Dreams has a good record fresh, but is 0/5 on soft/heavy. Knappers Hill looks short enough saddling 12st, so that leaves just one. I think this drop in grade and into a Vets race could see Grandeur d’Ame go well here towards the bottom of the weights. Stepping out of a premier handicap, he looks well handicapped off 132 at his best. Heavy ground is hit and miss for him, but I’d hope the fact he’s towards the bottom of these can stand him in good stead, as he does act on soft. 4/5 a place in fields of 7 or less, he’s won 3 of them, so hopefully that can help to sharpen him up too.

Finished not far behind Jubilee Alpha at the back end of last season. Whilst the reopposing favourite has run plenty since to bolster that form, this horse reappears here after a layoff. She was under pressure from a long way out but kept finding. The favourite hardly drew away at the line despite cantering into the race. If she’s ready here, I think she could be on the overpriced side. It’s a sole runner for Henderson here too, which is interesting. French-bred, so should cope with the surface, and her sire is 4/6 for a place here.

A chance taken on Vanderflier at the odds here, who has a positive chance on the ground based on his pedigree, with some heavy-ground performers in there. He finished up close behind the now 137-rated County Code in a debut P2P, before following up in an easier race since. Off the track and in rules debut here, he holds an entry over 2m6f, so should cope with this likely attritional test given the forecast ground.

A fairly trappy affair where there are holes to pick everywhere, but an unexposed sort will do for me here in Roaring Conquest. Third in a Grade 2 last season suggests a better horse than a 130 rating, and he’s gone well on two starts so far switched to handicaps. He lugged a fair weight round last time, so had a fair excuse. Back down to a kinder weight carry off the same mark could see him involved at the business end.

A tricky race on a tricky card, but I can side with Kotmask here, who showed up well in first-time blinkers last time. He stays further than this, and with plenty of pace on this could take some getting. He’s 1 lb below his last winning mark, and, whilst he was poor in a Grade 3 handicap on his only run on soft since Feb 2024, he does have a decent record on the surface of 12F11 prior to that. Hopefully a return to it can see him go well, and indeed his peak RPR of 140 did come on soft too. The horse that beat him last time has been slapped with a 7 lb rise, so it’s fair to say he bumped into one there, and a repeat of that effort can see him involved if his jumping holds up.

2 lbs wrong, but actually 3 lbs well in courtesy of Charlie Maggs’ claim. Static is second string for the owners, but I think he looks well treated enough to chance. Maggs got a peak RPR out of the horse off 1 lb higher two starts back, and he did combine with the trainer a few years ago to win this with a horse off a featherweight. The way he stuck on that day, I’d be minded to forgive his following run two weeks later where it turned into a late dash. He will hopefully appreciate a strongly run affair, and that can bring his light weight into it if he doesn’t get too far off the pace here.

Previous evidence suggests this horse can take a leap in the right direction off a seasonal opener. So, second time up here for the season could be the time to chance him. He has a patchy record on soft ground, but he has won on it, so it’s worth chancing that. The jockey's 7 lb allowance gives him a kind enough weight carry. Unexposed at the trip, he was only beaten a head on that reappearance on a second try over 3m, and by a horse that has since gone up 10 lb after winning. Lots points to a fair chance.

Fell at the first on chase debut. Dyno Dave does have potential to be well handicapped off 105 if only based on his debut run. He finished not far off Royal Rambler (rated 130) and a couple of others rated 110+. Clearly he’ll need to put that unseat behind him, but Freddie Gordon gets another try here. It’s a rare chase outing for Henderson here, with him being 4/8 a place with chasers here (2 wins) in the last 5 years. The weight to carry and ground are unknowns, but at double-figure odds and three places available in a seven-runner race, he looked worth an each-way punt.

An intriguing 3m handicap, and a small chance taken on Bali Body here. A lightly raced 11-year-old who has clearly had his problems, he drops in grade here for another return. 1??"2f back than usual might not make a huge difference to him, but it’s no negative, and he has shown a capability of saddling a big weight in the past. You have to gloss over his pull-up in December 2024. It is preferable to nod towards his 2023 return off a bigger break than this when he saddled 12st to a decent 2nd over 3m on soft. 5 lbs lower than that, he’s back in that class too, and with the trainers being 3/5 a place here I feel like he has a chance in an open race if he’s ready to go, which is clearly no given. The price compensates enough for a chance.

Last year's winner returns after a blot of a chase campaign and is just 1 lb higher here for a trainer among the winners recently. Nothing has gone for him since, but he is 3 from 7 over hurdles, and he’s on the right side of the weights carried here. While he’s got plenty to prove in three chase efforts this season, he’s clearly more than capable over hurdles, and won't mind a return to a softer surface either, being 21211 on soft/heavy on these shores (one blot in Ireland). A change in tactics can suit him well as he’s been best off the front, and without an out-and-out front runner I’d hope he’s nice and forward. Not without risk, but another one whose price appears to compensate enough.