JackpotRod
I'll get you an odds on shots beaten, but also give you some long odds winners with hopefully some insightful reasoning to help you to decide whether to follow me in or not. Back all my own selections with my own cash.
1
Estimated Prizes
this month
£5
Estimated Prize money
this month
JackpotRod's Tips History
21 March 2025
15:50 3:50 Musselburgh
Theirshegoes
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@21.00
Lose
-50
All The Glory has most of these on the stretch and out of the handicap, so it’s a fair old puzzle. Her rating looks inflated, and her record is hardly awe-inspiring despite the alternatives not jumping off the page. The market is speaking strongly for Rockola Vogue, who isn't out of the handicap, whilst most of the remainder are. But I thought one that was 7lbs out of the handicap but was riding with a 7lb claimer was worth a small vote. Theirshegoes is 2/2 a place, 1 win, off this sort of break, so the freshness in her legs could count for something off this low weight. She's somewhat proven over this slightly longer trip than she faced last time, having won over CD in November. She's also placed over 3m, so hopefully, if she's not completely outclassed in a first run above a class 4, she can be doing some good work late on ground that will suit.
Subtotal-50
19 March 2025
17:00 5:00 Haydock
Caramelo Rapido
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@13.00
Void
0
Mark Walford is 4/4 a place with 3 winners at Haydock in the last 5 years, and enters one on handicap debut here that contested a fair novice last time. He finished not too far off 118+ rated Novice Hurdlers, so this opening mark of 103 could prove feasible enough for Walford to continue his Haydock record. Being bottom weight is a bonus that can hopefully see him home well. The jockey is also 4/4 a place here this season, winning twice.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal0
17 March 2025
14:02 2:02 Fontwell
Gamblergo
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@13.00
Lose
-50
This one contested a fair novice last time when chasing home horses rated between 119 and 113. It gives him a bit to find with the favorite, but he shaped quite nicely into that race from a prominent position. On the evidence of it, he’ll appreciate this drop back 2 furlongs or so. With 12 placed from his last 19, trainer Lawes has his string in fine order. Cannon has a 9/18 place strike rate for him here in the last 5 years.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
15 March 2025
15:00 3:00 Uttoxeter
Ioupy Collonges
Daily Racing
25 EW
@17.00
Lose
-50
A race full of out and out stayers, but a chance taken on Ioupy Collonges who has that to prove but has looked like he would be suited to this sort of test. Toward the bottom of the weights in this, he was 2nd behind National Hunt Cup 2nd Rock My Way back in November, and he followed that up with a win on GS ground saddling a big weight. He got a bit stuck in the mud following that up, but the return to better ground could suit him. With a carry below 11st here and Cobden in the saddle, I think he can go well for Nicholls who has won this before.
1 member found this comment useful
14:45 2:45 Kempton
Classic King
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.50
Lose
-50
Brings a 6/6 place strike rate (2 wins) in good ground, and combines for the first time with Ben Jones, who is 11 from 35 around here, and 5/6 a place (1 win) when combining with Emma Lavelle here. The pair have combined for 4 winners from 11 horses in 2023. The way this horse finished last time suggests some extra yardage can help, and that race has been franked by two horses in behind. This is competitive enough, but he’s not facing a horse of the profile of Altobelli here, who is now rated 147, with the highest rated in here being 136.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Uttoxeter
Strackan
Daily Racing
25 EW
@21.00
Lose
-50
Could prove more effective back on a flatter track here off this mark, and he comes out of a Pertemps Qualifier that produced 2nd and 3rd in the Pertemps final, the 6th in the Martin Pipe, and saw Mayhem Mia running a cracker in the Mares chase. He’s got a low weight again to match his forward going style, and if he can get into a decent rhythm I’d hope he’s hard to catch once again, and certainly 20/1 underestimates his chance for all he’s seemingly better with a bit more juice in the ground.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-150
14 March 2025
17:20 5:20 Cheltenham
Minella Sixo
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@26.00
Lose
-50
Another race with a JP Fav, and a strong one at that in Kopeck De Mee. The logic is there on his French form, but with luck in running a big factor, he can surely be taken on. I’d be on the hunt for a smart future chaser in this race generally, as well as one that will want further, and in a field of 24, there are a bunch of alternatives. Smart future chasers don't jump off the page, but one that made small appeal was Minella Sixo, who runs off his Irish mark here. He was in the process of running a decent race in a Pertemps qualifier off 12st before falling on the first fence into the straight. His 2nd here behind Potters Charm reads well enough in the context of a mark of 137, and the way he chugged up the hill there I thought was fairly impressive. His seeming want for further can see him get up the hill over this shorter trip again, and I see no particular reason he is such a big price. He's one that will certainly cope with drying ground too, having been pulled out on soft previously.
1 member found this comment useful
16:40 4:40 Cheltenham
What A Glance
Daily Racing
25 EW
@29.00
Lose
-50
Barring last year, this has been the domain of the older horse in recent renewals, and one that comes in here relatively fresh is What A Glance, who chased home Allmankind a couple of starts back. He's finished 2nd since too, but comes in with just a couple of runs under his belt, having improved no end in 3 runs last season. That assured his stamina, and he has a want for a sounder surface too as an added bonus. He's won at the track on soft, suggesting he could be even better here on better ground, and he followed that up with a comfortable win over further, beating Fairly Famous, who is less than half the price here. Most of these will be teed up for this, but I just like his prep, and I like his price to hit the frame with plenty in his favor.
1 member found this comment useful
16:00 4:00 Cheltenham
Montys Star
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
The market looks right, there's no escaping that, and GDC should be grabbing himself yet another Gold Cup here. Fine if he does, but there are some prices enough to take him on. Barring him, the horses are officially split by just 9 lbs, and a potential improver in there is Monty's Star. Having originally felt Inothewayurthinkin could well follow the favorite home, the suggestion is he might well not run here if the forecast stays as it is. To that end, and with Henry on the board, I think Monty's Star could take sufficient enough of a step forward here to get involved. Henry has been patient with him, having given him just 2 runs this season, and he did so last season before finishing 2nd in the Brown Advisory. He's related to Monalee, who was an old favorite of mine, and who himself ran some great races here culminating in a close 4th behind Al Boum Photo in this race. So he's got the pedigree for it, I think he'll be tuned up nicely, and this longer trip could just be up his street as his National entry would suggest.
1 member found this comment useful
15:20 3:20 Cheltenham
Nativehill
Daily Racing
25 EW
@51.00
Lose
-50
I’m giving a stab in the relative dark to Nativehill for Henderson, who has no right being here on form. But it’s that that intrigues here for me, and the fact he’s turned out quickly here having run less than 2 weeks ago when staying strongly in an admittedly weak race. A pricey purchase with the future in mind, he will certainly improve for the step up in trip being related to a couple that went further than 3m. This isn’t a race that Henderson has thrown too many at in recent times, and he notably had a 2nd and 3rd in 2018, as well as a 4th in 2017. I don’t think Henderson would throw this horse in without a chance, and for all it can pay to side with one with experience, I’m happy to have a speculative dart at a race that has seen many of them go in over the years.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Cheltenham
Fontaine Collonges
Daily Racing
25 EW
@34.00
Lose
-50
Not a race I particularly like, but I’m happy to have an each-way dart at one at a price in Fontaine Collonges. She’s no chance in her current mood, and the mood of the yard, but the significant drop in trip I thought was of minor interest given she’s 141 just shy of this trip. She’s got something to find on ratings, but not as much as it seems getting 5 lbs from Dinoblue. The ground is less than ideal, but she has coped with it in the past, and whilst Venetia has had a testing week she can often pull one out of the fire from absolutely nowhere. As a 10-year-old, it’s her first attempt in this sort of company, and it’s somewhat notable that she put in a career-best on her first start this season. She’ll need to match or exceed that career-best RPR to win here, but it’s all baked enough into her price, and hopefully, there will be enough pace involved to see her stamina prove a factor late on.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 2:00 Cheltenham
Hansard
Daily Racing
25 EW
@17.00
Lose
-50
Hansard will do for me in this on a first visit here. He's chased home the Champion Hurdle 1-2, albeit fortunate, but that would still indicate a mark of 142 would be within reach. The Moores have their horses in warm order, and this horse should cope well with the better ground, noting he was a non-runner in soft ground in this last year when I fancied him off the same mark. The track and trip are a slight unknown for him, but he did stay well at Plumpton, and form at that track can translate well to the hill here. This race has been Mullins vs. Skelton in recent times, but I find their principles hard to fancy on balance, and certainly at the prices, so at double figures, I'll chance Hansard to go well.
1 member found this comment useful
13:20 1:20 Cheltenham
Too Bossy For Us
Daily Racing
25 EW
@67.00
Lose
-50
A fairly wild Triumph with two smart British prospects heading the betting. Willie throws an army at the race, though, with some horses who have never seen a fence on the racetrack but hail from decent flat backgrounds. It was Too Bossy For Us under the hands of Harry Cobden that I thought could be of minor interest to hit the frame. He shares a sire with East India Dock in Golden Horn, who also sired Golden Ace, who enjoys it here clearly. This horse was a pricey 330k purchase from the flat and did actually beat East India Dock on the flat, which is potentially clutching at straws given he hasn’t jumped an obstacle yet, but it speaks to his ability all the same. Cobden takes a first ride for Mullins.
2 members found this comment useful
Subtotal-350
13 March 2025
17:20 5:20 Cheltenham
Nine Graces
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
Whilst I think Midnight Our Fred can go well, it will be some effort to do this from the front. So I think he’s opposable almost on that alone, and there are so many angles into the race he can be passed over at the price. At a slightly bigger price, Nine Graces looked an improving type that could eke out something extra here. She travelled sweetly when winning last time and looked to have plenty in the tank late on for this extended trip. Her dam has produced a couple of winners over this trip and further as an added insight into her potential ability to stay the trip. Hopefully, she’ll be smuggled into this from the midfield and find something late on.
16:40 4:40 Cheltenham
Personal Ambition
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
A tough race to pick through, with the Cromwell pair making some appeal. It was Pauling's Personal Ambition that I just felt looked fairly treated off 137 and with a weight carry on the low side to boot. He’s got some classy enough hurdles form to his name, and went well over 2m3f at Ascot when chasing home Mark Of Gold. He’s done plenty for that form since to suggest this mark is more than workable. He should be nice and handy, albeit possibly having it all his own way, but hopefully he’ll be heading towards the home then in contention and his weight carry can see him stick to the task.
2 members found this comment useful
16:00 4:00 Cheltenham
The Wallpark
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.50
Lose
-50
The Wallpark put in a stout staying performance at Ascot when seemingly beaten late on, and that bodes well for this even stiffer test. 3 from 4 (with a further placed) when racing up an uphill finish is a plus here. He's already shown he can get up this hill, giving a bit of weight to Gowel Road when toughing it out off a strong pace. A similar effort to that and I think it could be as simple as he just stays better than anything else, albeit Teahupoo has to be respected, but the ground also looks in The Wallpark's favour. Gowel Road should guarantee there is no hiding place here with not many more of these wanting to go forwards, and I think again that will play into this horse's chances.
2 members found this comment useful
15:20 3:20 Cheltenham
Heart Wood
Daily Racing
25 EW
@21.00
Win
75
I ended up feeling like Hearts Wood was a touch overpriced though for De Bromhead, who throws three at this. Rachael takes the ride on Envoi Allen, so that perhaps puts a negative to this horse's chances, but it's notable that only 1 horse in the last 20 renewals of this has won being 10 or over, and both of Henry's other horses are 11. O'Keefe gets on well with him, being 2/2 a place on him. This horse has his career ahead of him, and with just 7 lbs to find on official figures, I think he can be well suited to this. He was upsides and traveling strongly alongside Fact To File in the Savills when winging 2 out. This drop in trip just looks ideal based on that effort, and it's possible that the race came a bit too quickly for him with his best work coming fresh. De Bromhead's festival hasn't started, but his horses have been running okay into places, so I'm happy to ignore that he hasn't found the winner's enclosure at the time of writing.
2 members found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Cheltenham
Guard The Moon
Daily Racing
25 EW
@41.00
Lose
-50
None of the last 7 winners of this have come into it off the back of a win, so I'm happy to ignore this horse's last run given he'd been put away for a few months having qualified for this in November in and around horses that have progressed in the handicap since. He followed that up with a decent 2nd down in trip, so he should well have the speed to go the gallop here and get a nice position. 6/6 a place under Sam TD, it’s a plus clearly with him back on board, and he'll appreciate any drying ground. He has got a bit of work to do with Harbour Lake on their qualifier, but he did go off a short price favourite and I just think better can be expected and the price difference between the pair is too big.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 2:00 Cheltenham
Moon Dorange
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
I’m willing to follow Moon D’Orange again, and it feels like I’m following Sean Bowen until he has a winner. This horse was switched off last time in rear, but he’s usually forward-going and I think they will (or at least should) revert to forward tactics here. He swept up the field last time from last to first, and barring absolutely shanking the last, he’d have won with plenty more in hand than the rise he has been given. Better ground could see him better over his fences, and that race over CD has worked out well enough in different spheres to have him hard to rule out if he can stay in touch here off a light weight.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-175
12 March 2025
16:40 4:40 Cheltenham
Traprain Law
Daily Racing
25 EW
@23.00
Lose
-50
Stays further, and should be wanting a nice forward position off a low weight for Wadge to repeat the Ultima feat for Venetia Williams and look to take the Plate here. He's got the pace for 2 miles, and there should be a nice tow given by a couple of obvious front runners. 10/13 a place going left handed, he could be well suited to this track, and gets on very well with Wadge being 10/14 a place on him. His last race has worked out well, and whilst a lack of rain doesn't help his chances, as long as there is soft in the going I'd hope he takes his chance.
1 member found this comment useful
16:00 4:00 Cheltenham
Found A Fifty
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
Jonbon's for the taking, plainly, but with 8 runners, it's got a nice enough each-way shape about it to take a chance on one, and I think that one is Found A Fifty. He's been freshened up, having a slight issue last time and pulling up, and the positive in that is his sound record of 2111 off 76 days or bigger. Off 73 days here, he's more than capable of bouncing back. A strong traveller and generally a sound jumper, he's got plenty of room for improvement, and a double-figure price just looks too generous. He's got some work to do to live with Jonbon, granted, but I've never warmed to Henderson's horse personally, and with Cheltenham being the only place he's been beaten (3 from 4 times), he has to be taken on.
1 member found this comment useful
15:20 3:20 Cheltenham
The Goffer
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEOdds taken at 15.00
@15.00
Win
45
The way Stumptown cantered into the race here in December would suggest he's a good thing up 8lbs. He looked to have loads more in hand there, but will still be doing this off top weight in a competitive race. The one that was given a bit of a sneaky ride in that race I thought was The Goffer, who was switched off at the back but did well to plug on for 7th late on. He gets the services of Sean Bowen here who knows what it takes to get round these fences, and as noted yesterday, goes very well over longer distances. His spin at Leopardstown still gives him something to find on the face of it, but he was giving 7lbs to Vanillier there, and he'll be getting 9lbs from that horse here who is a 7/1 shot. On balance I just think a low weight carry could see him home, and he's still a young horse comparative to some of these with more to offer in the right scenario.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Cheltenham
Impose Toi
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPNOTEOdds taken at 9.50
@9.50
Win
17
Watching Be Aware win this would hurt a bit, but at 5/1 I can pass over him. Impose Toi was the one I was interested in, having been locked away since winning at Newbury in November. He made a couple of juddering errors early there, but looked better the further he went turning the tables on a race fit rival late on. Inthewaterside has done something for that form since to now be rated 1lb lower, and he was 7/8 Lengths in behind there. The addition of cheekpieces will hopefully focus his mind over the obstacles, and I just think he’s weighted to outrun his odds here on suitable ground.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 2:00 Cheltenham
Better Days Ahead
Daily Racing
25 EW
@11.00
Lose
-50
Ballyburn is hard to knock, for all I didn't think he was entirely fluent in the jumping department last time. He's clearly got the engine, but he's far from the finished article over the larger obstacles (which is a given). And whilst he's a class above these, I'm not convinced it’s a penalty kick. Better Days Ahead is closely matched enough to think he can hit the frame at least, and looks the most likely dour stayer of the field on both what he's shown so far as well as his breeding. He's already shown his want for this track with a gutsy win in the Martin Pipe on heavy ground. He looks to be one that won't mind ground on the better side, and with the snow around, it could ride a bit dead, which I think again might play into his hands.
1 member found this comment useful
13:20 1:20 Cheltenham
Kiss Will
Daily Racing
25 EW
@34.00
Lose
-50
I'm happy to pick through Mullins battalion and chance Kiss Will to hit the frame. He was seemingly well thought of at the start of the season, and duly obliged on debut for Mullins albeit walking through the last. He won with his head in his chest, and whilst Townend prefers Final Demand he was clearly never stepping off him anyway. Patrick often has a decent stab at this race, and given Mullins has dominated the places in this in recent seasons it's favourable that his 2nd string. Kiss Will should take well to this step up in trip, and this pricey sort looks more than capable of giving a good account of himself off what looks to be a fair old pace collapse if the pace maps are to be believed.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-138
11 March 2025
17:20 5:20 Cheltenham
Resplendent Grey
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
I'm siding with the logic here that jockeys win races over this far, and a few in here catch the eye as having a good judge of the pace at this trip. Of course, they have to have the horse underneath them as well, and I'm hoping the right combination is Sean Bowen on Resplendent Grey. He'll saddle close to top weight, but he's earned it with some decent performances. You had to appreciate how the horse stayed on over 3m here in Listed company, and Hyland has done enough for that form to suggest this horse could remain underrated off a mark of 142 despite the weight carry. Arguably, his 2nd behind Handstands in a Grade 1 speaks to that as well, especially considering he went wide into the home straight, was last over the 2nd last fence, and stuck on strongly for 2nd behind that now 154 rated horse. He'll be switched off by a jockey that is 10 from 61 over this trip (20 placed), and on balance, he should just be better than a 0-145 to find Olly Murphy his first festival winner.
1 member found this comment useful
16:40 4:40 Cheltenham
Slurricane
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEOdds taken at 34.00
@34.00
Win
140
Take your pick from JPs, it seems, with him dominating the market, and the form is as muddling as you can expect it to be. I landed on the side of thinking that Slurricane is slightly disrespected at his price here. His jockey has 2 places on 3 visits to these shores, and this horse is closely matched with one of the market principles. In fact, he's on slightly better terms than Beyond Your Dreams for a neck defeat. He looked to get to the front a bit too soon there, but did get over the last really well before getting picked up late. He should be up with the van, so shouldn't have too many excuses of luck in running if he can stay with the pace and get a clear sight up the run-in.
15:20 3:20 Cheltenham
July Flower
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
Will need to improve significantly for the run back with Dr. Bromhead in order to be anywhere near Lossiemouth, but July Flower looks entitled to each-way respect having gone well against race-fit rivals. She got left a bit behind but bridged the gap to the leaders before staying on best past a large majority of the field, including Kala Conti who re-opposes here. She was doing her best work late on.
14:40 2:40 Cheltenham
Henrys Friend
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
Famous Bridge has placed on every attempt at this trip, and I think he’s overpriced. But perhaps this will be a step too far for him up in the weights after winning last time. I’m more inclined to lean towards another up in the weights in the shape of Henry’s Friend, who has been progressing in Newbury handicaps, finding plenty up the run in when asked on his latest start. He’s been freshened up for a crack at this, having been off the track for 73 days. He has won off a similar break, so that doesn’t particularly concern me. Being 5 from 10 on GS or better ground is also a plus to his chances. It’s always an if, but he can race handy enough and stays all day. So if he can get a good position, hopefully, he won’t be wilting late on.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 2:00 Cheltenham
Jango Baie
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@8.50
Win
375
Majborough and L’Eau De Sud are tied together closely enough by Touch Me Not to ignore the matter's chances of beating the short-priced favorite here. Maj was sketchy enough at enough fences to think his jumping could be under enough pressure here in what looks to be a fairly contested pace. Perhaps distance-dropped Jango Baie could be the fly in the ointment as a result. A headstrong traveler, he drops in trip here having taken his form to a new level over fences on two starts this season. Whilst he didn’t win the latter, you could see genuine improvement in his jumping as he was slick at his fences and smart when he needed to be. But for a better leap at the last, he probably would have won there, and he has little to find on the figures to be competitive here if he can go the gallop. Nicky knows the type to win this, and 6 of the last 8 renewals of this to be run on GS or better have resulted in British wins compared to the Irish 2.
3 members found this comment useful
13:20 1:20 Cheltenham
Tripoli Flyer
Daily Racing
25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@26.00
Void
0
Whilst the alternatives to the favorite don’t leap off the page, the dearth of Mullins horses should see one or two as sacrificial lambs to ensure a gallop. So one that should get further would be the order of the day for me. The Irish form looks a puzzle to me, with plenty of them hard to split. They are priced accordingly, so I’m inclined to chance one of the two British entries, with Tripoli Flyer making minor appeal. You can tie him into Kopek Des Bordes via Good And Clever, with Celtic Dino beaten off 15L time by the selection. Good And Clever beat Celtic Dino at Aintree by 4L, and he did chase home Kopek Des Bordes last time albeit by a good 22L. So he has something to find, but on ground that will suit him, I think on balance he is overpriced. The way he finished last time would suggest to me he should cope with further than this, and I just hope he can go the early pace and have enough left to find a turn of foot up the hill.
2 members found this comment useful
Workahead
Daily Racing
25 EW
@9.00
Lose
-50
My initial pick of Irish horses to go against the favorite, and with Tripoli Flyer out, I’ll give Workahead a small nod. He won in a better time than Kopek Des Bordes over the same course and distance, albeit on better ground. It was an impressive performance given he made all the running and galloped on relentlessly with seemingly plenty more to give. On direct form, he’s well matched with Kopek Des Bordes, who beat Kawaboomga by a couple of lengths in December. That same horse beat William Munny by a length, who was 7 lengths behind the selection, so on that basis, Workahead has a fair chance of being involved with the favorite.
Subtotal315
08 March 2025
14:50 2:50 Ayr
Foxs Fancy
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@8.50
Lose
-50
Off since what looked like a highly encouraging handicap debut in October, this horse has plenty of untapped potential based on that first effort over 3 miles. Strong at the line despite some greenness, they should fancy that she’ll comfortably get this trip here, especially without a real pace angle involved. She’s got an eye-catching 2nd behind a 129-rated chaser on her CV, which reflects this mark of 108 well, and I don't think she’ll have to take much of a step forward to get involved here. She’s priced as such, but there’s enough juice in her price for a play, and she’s on the right side of the weight carries here, albeit a couple of these will saddle featherweights.
2 members found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Sandown
Sorceleur
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
More than a few hitting the shortlist, but Harry Cobden making his lowest riding weight in the last 12 months to take the ride on Sorceleur made plenty of appeal in this given the horse's price. Cobden is 12/16 a place in the last 5 years, winning 9 of his last 12, when saddling this weight. The horse has been turned out quickly after disappointing last time largely, so it’s a worry in that sense, although the fact he’s turned out quickly here would suggest Nicholls feels he’s better than he showed. At the very least, he should improve for a sounder surface, being 5/6 a place on GS or better. He has won off a quick turnaround, winning twice in two days in November, so the 7-day break doesn’t concern. He’s also best going right-handed at which he is 7/7 a place, with all 3 wins coming going this way round having been going left last time.
3 members found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Sandown
Aviation
Daily Racing
25 EW
@34.00
Lose
-50
Ultra competitive, so I’m happy to take a swing at one at a price. Aviation looked well handicapped enough to chance to me off this opening mark of 116. He lacks the class potential of some of these, granted, but he showed a fair turn of foot from the front last time out when proving particularly adept at his fences. He won’t get an easy time of it if going forward, but is one of just a few of these that seemingly want to force the pace. He showed at Warwick in a bigger field that he might not mind going a bit further than this, so being towards the bottom of the weights, I’d hope he isn’t fading at the finish in what will be ideal ground for him.
3 members found this comment useful
Subtotal-150
07 March 2025
15:10 3:10 Exeter
Thistle Be The One
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
King Of The Lake is 11 lbs well in here and is strong in the market as a result. But Thistle Be The One could prove the fly in the ointment on handicap debut. He looks pretty well treated off 114, having chased a horse rated 128+ on his last two starts. With little competition for the lead, he could get free rein to make all and will hopefully prove hard to peg back if Sheehan can set the right fractions.
Subtotal-50
05 March 2025
20:00 8:00 Kempton
Shallow
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.50
Lose
-50
Tightly matched with Supreme King on their previous efforts, and whilst the latter is weighted to turn that round I still think this horse looks well treated under a 2lb rise. She looks likely to get a soft lead here with other pace drawn higher, so hopefully that can inconvenience anything coming from further back. She brings a solid profile into the race with a sound course record and an unexposed profile to go close.
19:30 7:30 Kempton
More Than A Feelin
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
A trappy affair, but the effort of More Than A Feelin here a few starts back looked of interest if this race can set up for her. There’s no guarantee of that, but a large field should lean towards a fair pace being set even without an obvious front runner. She’s got form to turn around with Gaiety Musical, but she did come into that off a 2-month break, so is entitled to improve for the effort. She got a fairly torrid passage in a small field and wasn’t really reached for at all with next to no crack of the whip. She still ran on okay having lost her momentum late on, and whilst no clear run is guaranteed here, I do think she looked like she had a little more to give. She ran CD over a second quicker than the favorite Mr Baloo in a similar size field previously, so if she can repeat that in a classier race, then she can be involved.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
04 March 2025
16:40 4:40 Market Rasen
Homme DUn Soir
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 9.00 on 04/03 at 09:360.15 deduction for Alto Alto@6.00 withdrawn at 15:21R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 8.00 x (1-0.15) = 7.80
@7.80
Win
340
This horse looks set for a solo in front, and whilst a few of these are more unexposed, he could sneak this with the right fractions. 8/14 a place going right-handed, all of his 4 wins have come going this way. He’s also 6/10 a place on undulating tracks. Bowen is 2/2 a place on his back, and the horse does stay further (5/7 a place over 2m4f) than this, so if he does set even fractions, he could be hard to pass. 9/13 a place in this class, and 4/8 a place (2 wins) in races of 7 runners or less also adds to the intrigue.
2 members found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Market Rasen
The Questioner
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-50
Back over fences for the first time in 2 years, this horse has been regressive over hurdles in 3 starts this season. That said, he stays well, is 4/6 a place in class 4 company and is a decent 8/11 a place in races of 11 runners or less. He’s 7/10 a place saddling 11st or less, and Wynne’s claim takes him below that, with his 3 wins also coming below that weight carry. There looks competition enough for the lead to think he could make use of being bottom weight by 4lbs. He’s back to his last winning chase mark, and if he can produce anywhere near his best then he’s in with a chance whilst also noting he is 5/7 a place in this ground.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal290
03 March 2025
15:25 3:25 Newcastle
Ceolwulf
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@10.00
Void
0
4/6 a place at this level. Whilst being the same going left-handed, Ceolwulf looks set for a solo up front here. Placed on 5/10 starts without winning, he’s hardly solid as a 9-year-old maiden, but he did beat a subsequent winner last time, so something can be said for the form. That was a first effort in cheekpieces and produced close to a career best. So a repeat of that can see him involved in the shake-up, and I’d hope he can improve the first run in a year for all his form suggests he’s a fragile type.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal0
02 March 2025
16:02 4:02 Leopardstown
Law Ella
Daily Racing
25 EW
@11.00
Lose
-50
Law Ella looks to bring in a solid profile of efforts, suggesting she might be a touch overpriced. She loses a couple of lbs following matching her career-best RPR last time, which just gets a bit generous. She is 4/5 a place at this trip, 3/5 in this class, and she’s 7/7 a place in field sizes between 12 and 15, with all her wins coming in that scenario (3). She’s also 5/5 a place between February and April, winning twice, so she could well be coming to hand after a decent season. Hopefully, she’ll be up in touch as the race lacks pace, and she can stay further than this, so hopefully, a low weight carry can see her doing some good work late on.
1 member found this comment useful
15:52 3:52 Huntingdon
Hidden Heroics
Daily Racing
25 EW
@17.00
Lose
-50
Lots seems to be in El Rio’s favor again, even if he needs to step forward again. This is an interesting race, though, with a set of similar horses in age in particular. Dan Skelton has 3, and you’d think he can play a hand one way or another. Perhaps that could be with Hidden Heroics, who steps back in trip for this reappearance. His record fresh is the overwhelming negative, but he’s usually not turned out 1st time in March, so something must have gone amiss for him. 2 from 4 at the trip over hurdles, he’s never gone this distance over fences. He’s 4/9 in smaller fields, and with Atkins taking him to bottom weight with his 7lbs, he could be the one to benefit late on from a strongly run affair.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 2:00 Doncaster
Northern Poet
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@6.50
Win
275
Interesting race for a small field, and I can take the negatives about Supervisor being 0/8 going this way and having no wins on ground better than soft to suggest he’s a bit short. Siberian Star, as the other short one, is 0/13 on Good ground, and with an overall strike rate of just 3 from 46 Surrey he can be taken on. Northern Poet looked of most interest. PU last time after never going a yard, the return to good ground on which he is 3/6 has to be a plus. Most eye catching it he’s 5/7 a place (3 wins) in fields of 2-7, and 2 of his 4 wins over obstacles have come from a total of 6 runs on flat tracks. He needed a couple of runs to get going last year so hopefully he’s back in a better place for what looks a very winnable event.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal175
01 March 2025
15:45 3:45 Newbury
Beau Balko
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 15.00 on 28/02 at 19:480.00 deduction for Midnight River@19.00 withdrawn at 08:210.15 deduction for Iroko @6.000 withdrawn at 09:01R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 14.00 x (1-0.15) = 12.90
@12.90
Win
34
Billytherealbigred appeals, but not at the prices in this race, which is as wide open as ever. Saint Segal interested me again, but it was Beau Balko again that I had coming out better at the weights. He got trounced by the former 11L when the pair met over course and distance, but a 10lb weight swing in a different scenario looked interesting enough to think he’s got a chance of hitting the frame for me. If the ground stays on the softer side, then that’s of interest as he’s got a solid record on it. He lacks the class to mix with the best of these, but the 10st weight carry makes up for it for me. Also, this has generally been the domain of 8-year-olds and younger, which goes against all but 1 of the top 4 class angles, and Iroko as the 150+ rated 7-year-old probably doesn’t want a hiked mark with an eye on the National.
2 members found this comment useful
15:30 3:30 Kelso
Alnilam
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@26.00
Win
100
Alnilam is 3 from 4 off breaks between 31-60 days, 3/3 a place in this hood, and 4/6 a place at this trip. He’s 2 from 3 here, and 3 from 4 on an uphill finish. He stays further, should be nice and forward, and could be even better 2nd time up post wind surgery. His win last time has been fairly well franked barring the odd hiccup, and he looked value for a bigger rise than the 4 lbs he got for that. Had he not made a mistake at the 2nd last, he may well have finished a lot further ahead. Murphy’s solid season continues, and he’s a fair 10/20 a place in handicap hurdles here in the last 5 years.
2 members found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 Doncaster
The Kniphand
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 10.00 on 01/03 at 00:180.10 deduction for Surrey Quest@9.00 withdrawn at 13:29R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 9.00 x (1-0.10) = 9.10
@9.10
Win
15
Low weight carries seemingly the order of the day for this fair marathon, with 7 of the last 10 winners saddling 10st13lbs or less. A fair few qualify, but it’s the bottom weight that I liked. He stayed on strongly when seemingly beaten last time over shorter than this, and proved prior to that at Ludlow that he could stay this far off a big weight. His latest staying effort was on ground that might not have even been ideal, so back onto good ground he has it in him to improve again.
2 members found this comment useful
Subtotal149
28 February 2025
17:20 5:20 Lingfield
Kalamunda
Daily Racing
25 EW
@11.00
Lose
-50
Destructive could get a dangerous solo and stay, given he stays further than this trip. His form does put you off somewhat, given the horses in 2nd and 3rd from his last race have not franked that form, even though horses further back have. 5/8 on the AW, Kalamunda made a small appeal at double figures coming out of a race that has seen some horses go well. He was 3rd at Southwell a few starts back in this class when well beaten by a horse given a rating of 107. He had a horse behind in Storm Star, who has won twice since to go up the handicap, whereas this horse remains on the same mark here, so is evidently well handicapped on that evidence. Drawn next to the pace angle, whilst he has been held up, he has also pushed on, so I’d be hopeful he can break well and get a good drag into this and be competitive late on under a featherweight.
16:45 4:45 Lingfield
Royal Approval
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
Wasn’t asked for maximum effort last time when extending clear 2f out at Newcastle without a single backhander from the old persuader. He almost got pegged back, but given that, he should be better than the 3lb rise he was awarded for that win. The horse he beat has won since too, to add some gloss to that effort. Stepping up in class he’ll benefit from a much lesser weight carry than he’s been used to, and on this sharper track he could prove effective if he can get a decent position from an inside draw. He’s taken a fair drift, but I think has a better chance than his odds of taking to the step up in class.
15:00 3:00 Lingfield
Red Evolution
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@17.00
Lose
-50
A first runner for O’Callaghan at Lingfield where he sends a few, and he’s placed with 5 of his last 7 in the last month. I think this horse could well bounce out from stall 1 and take up the running from a low draw even with competition for the lead. He’s shown he can get 6f, with perhaps his most eye catching effort being on debut when not far behind the smart Henri Matisse. Hanging right last time when winning over 5f, he won with plenty in hand for all he didn’t beat much. So this mark of 85 is no gift on handicap debut, but I think he’s overpriced all the same as a 300k purchase with remaining potential in this sphere.
Subtotal-150
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