JackpotRod

Sweet William will probably be the rightful favourite on ratings, but he is from 3 on reappearance, so can be taken on. The alternatives don’t leap off the page, so it was Ascending that I thought was worth a chance. He’ll need a career best in this company, but arguably his second behind Ethical Diamond is up there with some of the best form on offer, which pushes me to ignore his lowly rating. A winner on reappearance in 2025, he went on to run two big races on quick ground before finishing sixth in the Irish Champion Stakes off a big weight. 642112 on good or better, he’s 4/7 a place at the trip, 3/4 a place off breaks longer than 125 days, 5/9 a place going right-handed and is 3 wins out of 4 with Billy Lee aboard. He’s vulnerable to something a bit more unexposed perhaps, but I think there’s a fair case he can hit the frame; albeit he’ll need a career best to win.

Trip excuses the last twice over a mile and then 7f. This horse ran a decent race over course and distance in a time half a second slower than standard on good ground. He was bang there at the furlong marker last time before fading to 7th in the Greenham, so the step back in trip is sure to suit. His proven effort over this stiff 6 looks even better considering he was a touch outpaced but stayed on really strongly late on. He’s perhaps got something to find with the best of these, but is 5/5 a place at the trip (3 wins), while being 6/8 a place in fields of 11 or less. He’s got a 3/3 a place record off short layoffs of less than 14 days too, and is 1/1 under Probert.

Not much has gone right for La Botte so far this season, but he returns to the scene of his 2nd-place finish in the Britannia. This is the smallest field he’s faced, which could be beneficial for him, as there shouldn’t be as far to come if the usual hold-up tactics are employed. He flew home on seasonal debut when miles back and swung so wide into the straight he might have won had he been ridden a bit more for luck. The Lincoln was forgettable, but he got a bit lost there and actually didn’t finish that far back despite a 14/21 to his name. With a Group 1 entry in the offing, there is clearly thought that he could rate far higher than his rating of 104, and he needs to improve rapidly to even get involved in this smart-looking Listed race. That said, you can pick holes in all of them. Whilst a lack of obvious pace is a concern, with the stalls on the far side and being drawn highest I’d hope Spencer can keep him out of trouble and at least get a clear sight of things.

A fairly wild big-field sprint handicap, and a chance taken here on Far Above The Law, who reappeared with a decent effort for his new trainer. 2/2 a place in fields of this size or bigger. He’s adept on a quick surface and is rarely beaten far whenever he’s faced it. His wins have come from leading, and while he might be hard-pressed to dominate this big field, there is a lack of an outright front-runner in this race. He’s drawn well next to a potential pace angle from a high draw, which I like. His last win came around a year ago off 3 lbs lower, and at his best he’s very well treated off 78. Probert is aboard, and he has a decent 12/33 place strike rate (6 wins) for this trainer in the last five years. The horse improved significantly from run 1 to 2 last year, winning his second start, so he could prove competitive if he does the same again here. He’s unexposed at the trip in handicap company, and an ability to get further could bode well here towards the bottom of the weights.

So Regal sets a fair standard in the hands of Ryan Moore, but the rest are a bit of a much of a muchness. I think it’s worth siding with the some newcomer who gets weight all round. The race has been won by newcomers getting weight in 2 of the 3 runnings, which intrigues. James Doyle takes the ride, and he’s got a solid record for Balding over the years, being 29/74 to place since 2013, with 17 of them winning. With 2- and 3-year-olds that record improves to 25/53, with 14 wins. She’ll have plenty of stamina for this stiff mile from her dam's side. It’s the first Mehmas filly to be trained by Balding, but he has trained plenty of colts and geldings, with a sound 38/83 place strike rate overall.

Alfie Redman’s 7 lbs off top-rated Storm Star interested me here. The horse is unexposed on turf, with a record of 2/2 and a place on good or better. His best effort came on this ground. He’s got something to find with Dosman on their most recent running, but in this race, which lacks any obvious pace, Storm Star could be ridden nicely and forward, where it could be hard to peg back the leaders. Down to his last winning mark, the added 7 could just be a gift. He takes a drop in class and is 3/4 a place at this level, whilst being 4/6 a place off breaks of less than 30 days. 7/10 a place on straight tracks, I’m hoping he has it in him to outclass these.