JackpotRod

Carrytheone is just going fall in at some point, but yet again he has to be considered short enough at the price he is. This course is renowned for having horses stuck in traffic anyway, and there appears to be a real lack of pace so he could find it hard to scythe through the field yet again if he's not placed right. I suspect we'll see a bit of an arrow head as well which means they could all be fighting for room if they all go together (there is a chance of a split of course. I was much more minded to side again with Aalto who probably got going a bit earlier than desired when a ready winner of the Bunbury Cup and it didn't all go exactly right for him. He looked to have much more up his sleeve than a the small penalty he receives for that, and indeed the handicapper would agree, and he's such a strong traveller I think he can get a good position here and strike late again to continue his progress.

I ended up thinking Goliath was just overpriced at 33s if Middle Earth is priced at 7/1 here, as he was travelling so well in the Hardwicke late in spite of pulling hard early due to a lack of pace in that race. His trainer has said he needs a pace to go at, and he should get that here, and whilst he's feasibly outclassed in this field he could just as easily be swinging on the bridle late on if that last run is anything to go by. He was left alone late on too, and I think that flattered Middle Earth somewhat who finished closer than he otherwise would. It's speculative, but the price compensates for what I thought was an underrated effort.

The lack of pace on here looks alarming and it looks ripe for one to take it on, and I think a small chance can be take on Great Blasket. He's had 5 runs on the turf where he's been ridden from rear on each and every start, but before that on the AW he was ridden close up and prominently, including with today's rider aboard. So he looks capable of a switch in tactics in a race that is setup for it, so whilst it's chancey in that respect I think this horse still looks overpriced. Rarely out of the frame, he does stay a bit further than this, so if he can force the pace he can get some of these on the stretch early enough to hold on. If he doesn't, then at the very least I'd expect him to be doing his best work late, and being down at the bottom of the weights is just a bonus, as is the 2lbs he got back for matching a peak RPR last time. He looks a bit all or nothing, so I'll chance win at the price for a smaller play.