CalFergie

Sarab Star is far too short here given E Greatrex’s 12% SR (A/E 0.34) on favourites in C1-3 races and 17% SR (A/E 0.47) with favs who finished runner-up LTO. Add to the mix J Channon’s 1/22 record (A/E 0.2) with fancied runners in Autumn and it’s easy to take on the jolly with next up AL ARBEED at 5/1; the son of Night Of Thunder won on debut at Southwell in March before putting in two fair displays on turf in C2 conditions races. He was put away for the summer, clearly with a winter campaign in mind, and returned with a solid 1.25l 4th of 10 back at Southwell over a mile on handicap debut. He lost nothing in defeat behind smart performers First Principle, Two Tempting and Dividend and is running off an unchanged mark over a lesser trip here. The 3yo must go close and his owner’s 48% SR (A/E 1.61) with fancied runners at left-handed courses adds further confidence.

Unassuming has to be taken on here given his poor FlatStats rating plus G Boughey’s 23% SR (A/E 0.45) with Lope De Vega favourites on the AW. Eldrickjones will do well to overcome R Fell’s 7% SR (A/E 0.4) with fancied runners who finished 7th or worse LTO, meanwhile A Balding’s 1/42 record (A/E 0.2) as an owner in handicaps and Cable Bay’s 9% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied runners in November puts King’s Lynn up against it. Next up BENACRE makes appeal at 7/1 (4 places); the son of Australia won four starts back at Southwell, and while hasn’t got his head in front since, has given fair enough displays. He’s won twice this year on the AW and appreciates the specialist trip of 7f (26% SR, A/E 1.51), the C Johnston yard are 4/6 (A/E 3.34) over the past fortnight, Australia brings a 21% SR (A/E 1.6) on straight courses and O Stammers a 16% SR (A/E 1.37) on runners carrying 8-13 to 9-3 to boost claims.

Maelstrom is easy enough to oppose here given his poor FlatStats rating and Cheveley Park Stud’s 22% SR (A/E 0.49) with favourites on Mondays. Germanic has a negative jockey booking in R Sexton with his 4% SR (A/E 0.4) on Mondays and 5% SR (A/E 0.48) on runners coming up in trip, meanwhile Uncle Don carries a poor FS rating also and is likely to offer little value. Oriental Prince and Mr Cool look much harder to rule out, but I think old friend THE CALTONIAN can bounce back to form with the return to 6f at his beloved Newcastle. The son of Swiss Spirit had a disappointing turf campaign, failing to place on four starts, and didn't beat a rival home at Southwell LTO however he was never fancied that day so probably needed the run, it was over 7f and they went off far too hard in front for TC to see out the trip. Today he’s running off just a 1lb higher mark than his last win (coming over C&D), L Perratt brings a solid 18% SR (A/E 1.65) with runners coming down in trip and 17% SR (A/E 1.58) in Autumn. 9/1 (4 places) taken.

He hasn’t really lived up to expectations but I’m giving the other MASTER (BUILDER) an each way chance at 16/1 (6 places). The son of Mastercraftsman’s runs this year have been moderate to say the least; the most notable being a 4.5l defeat on seasonal appearance at Epsom but he’s failed to place on four starts since. His mark has subsequently slipped to 89 which is just 1lb higher than his last win, coming at Haydock 14 months ago, and I think he’ll enjoy the tough conditions today given his breeding and trainer in D Menuisier who’s a genius on soft/heavy (17% SR, A/E 1.15). Probably heart over head but he’s no forlorn hope to me.

Castle Cove just has to be opposed in the November Handicap given W Haggas’s 1/15 record (A/E 0.2) with Camelot favourites and his breeder’s 12% SR (A/E 0.46) with handicap favs. Next up MASTER VINTNER makes the most appeal against; the R Beckett-trained 3yo has won on both starts since joining the yard, including on heavy ground at Goodwood when shedding his maiden. He backed that up with a comfortable novice success at Lingfield (3.75l eased) when tackling 12f for the FT so I'm fairly convinced that there’s more improvement to come on this ground, over this trip on handicap debut. 13/2 taken.

It’s the last day of the flat season so I’m going to have a couple of plays in both of the big handicaps, starting with FINE INTERVIEW at 7/1. I can’t wrap my head around Realign is favourite; yes the son of Blue Point won LTO at Haydock but that came on good to soft in a C3 and he’s now running off the same mark as a 5.25l defeat at Ascot previously and is up in class again. Evening Saigon makes appeal but again this is a couple of steps up in class and it’s no sure thing that he’ll take to the tricky ground given Blue Point’s 14% SR (A/E 0.53) with fancied runners on soft/heavy. FI is a horse we know takes to the ground, winning on his last two starts under similar conditions including over C&D LTO. The Havana Grey gelding is running off a career-high mark but we haven’t seen his ceiling yet and Wathnan Racing excel at this time of year (39% SR, A/E 1.46 when fancied).

My each way play here comes in the form of ROACH POWER at 14/1 (6 places). He’s got a difficult draw in stall 1 to overcome but is on the same side of Sophia’s Starlight who’s likely to set the fractions up the rail and has been in tremendous form this autumn; most notable being a 1.25l success in a valuable handicap at Ascot on soft ground. The son of Ribchester won on heavy at Ffos Las the time before so he clearly relishes tough conditions, M Wigham does well with his 6yo’s (22% SR, A/E 1.58), has had a superb year on the turf (23% SR, A/E 1.82) and he targets them effectively in the autumn so it’d be no shock to see him end the year with a bang.

I understand why Teumessias Fox is favourite here but he’s 0/3 so far with use of cheek pieces which aligns with King Power’s 2/23 record (A/E 0.34) on the AW. Next up THE GLEN ROVERS makes the most appeal against; the highly progressive son of Dark Angel won this race last year, adding to a 5/8 record (A/E 2.4) on the sand. He hasn’t been seen for 248 days but DA progeny fair well off a break and you’d imagine L Wadham will have their charge primed for this valuable prize. J Doyle is a notable jockey booking with an impressive 56% SR (A/E 1.68) on fancied DA progeny and Wadham brings a 50% SR (A/E 1.74) with fancied runners from Irish stallions plus 43% SR (A/E 1.69) with fancied handicappers. 9/2 taken.

My wild outsider of Saturday night comes in the form of VILLAGE VOICE at 20/1 (each way). The mare by Zarak has raced just once for C Brown; winning a Grade 3 at Belmont a month ago when flying late. This is a much tougher proposition but the trainer will have learnt plenty about the 5yo and she looked to really appreciate the rattling-fast ground LTO.

Connections may well feel disappointed that SIERRA LEONE has won just once this season but the colt is notoriously slow from the gate and has been even worse on two of his four outings. He always finishes his races well and with a solid pacemaker in Contrary Thinking he’s going to be flying late. 7/2 taken.

Minnie Hauk is the rightful favourite for the BC Turf but she’s taking up so much of the market share that an each way play can be made and AMILOC makes the most appeal at 11/1/. The 3yo trained by R Beckett has had a superb career to date; winning his first five races when comfortably going through the grades and finally losing his unbeaten record in the Irish St Leger. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day, finishing 4l 2nd of 9, on what was his first go at the distance, and you can absolutely see the return to 12f as a positive from a decent draw in stall 3.

My only play today, and first of November, comes in the form of BOLSTER at 15/2 each way. Gethin carries a top + blue FlatStats rating but Ghaiyyath’s 15% SR (A/E 0.38) with favourites coming up in class makes his son short enough in the betting, meanwhile Liberty Lane will do well to overcome a 3lb penalty. Bolster hasn’t got his head in front this season but has ran well on all five starts; the most notable being a 3.5l defeat in the Gr2 Huxley stakes on reappearance and 2.25l loss in a Gr3 at ParisLongchamp. He took this race last year on deeper ground but the son of Invincible Spirit is versatile as far as the going’s concerned, K Burke brings a 39% SR (A/E 1.33) with fancied Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum runners and the owner a 44% SR (A/E 1.78) with fancied Invincible Spirit progeny.