CalFergie

Stick to the good stuff (the flat). Use stats and systems alongside form to find selections. Some tips are based on market support so follow my Twitter handle for updates - @CalFergie

Estimated Prizes
this month

£30

Estimated Prize money
this month

CalFergie's Tips History

05 October 2024

19:30 7:30 Wolverhampton

The Thames Boatman

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@13.00

Lose

-50

Aramram has to be opposed here given his poor FlatStats rating and J Leavy’s 6% SR (A/E 0.43) on runners carrying 9-4+. Lion’s House has come in for support, but the R Varian yard form is a massive concern (1/14, A/E 0.26 over the past fortnight) and their stats suggest a continuing decline in performance. Azure Angel is 2nd worst FS rated so all signs point to an each way play with 4 places on offer and THE THAMES BOATMAN makes appeal at 12/1. A C&D winner, this son of Havana Grey has been solid all season, accumulating in three wins and a place. His latest success came at Lingfield in September, finishing strongly over 5f to beat a horse who had the running of the race. Life is a bit more difficult here with an extra 3lb on his back but the step back up to 6f is a sure positive and F Marsh excels in C1-3 races on the AW (28% SR, A/E 1.81).

14:05 2:05 Newmarket

The Dragon King

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@8.50

Win

225

Brighton Boy might well just take all the beating here, but his owner’s 8% SR (A/E 0.5) in stakes races (1/8, A/E 0.28 when fav) suggests that his charge is short enough. Twafeeg carries a poor FlatStats rating along with a number of negative stats; most notable being H Doyle’s 3% SR (A/E 0.25) over 6f at HQ, meanwhile H Davies’s 8% SR (A/E 0.3) on fancied runners carrying up to 8-11 makes Aubergine hard to side with. Next up THE DRAGON KING makes plenty of appeal at 15/2 (4 places); the Invincible Army colt is proving himself to be a fairly consistent sort, winning at 3rd time of asking in May, backing that up with a nursery handicap win at Windsor a couple of months later and running a fair 4l 6th of 16 in a C2 handicap at Goodwood NTO. The 2yo was just held at Hamilton last month when dropped to 5f, and while he has been upped a couple of pounds for that effort the step back up to 6f will suit. IA brings a number of positive stats to boost claims; a 41% SR (A/E 1.69) with fancied runners over 6f the most impressive.

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29 September 2024

16:05 4:05 Epsom Downs

Qitaal

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@8.50

Lose

-50

I’m not sure that Whiskey Pete wants this trip and I think that makes him easy enough to oppose at the prices. Dashinwhitesargent will do well to overcome Highland Reel’s 9% SR (A/E 0.36) with fancied runners on undulating courses, meanwhile Winston's Tipple is burdened with Churchill’s 11% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied runners in Autumn. QITAAL is standing out to me at 15/2 and looks a decent each way bet. The Iffraaj gelding gave F Norton his fairytale ending at Chester a couple of weeks back; hosing up by just the 8l and has subsequently been raised 9lb. He’s given decent displays all season without getting his head in front up until that last outing, so is clearly in good form and Iffraaj tend to love the mud. Johnston Racing Ltd have a brilliant 35% SR (A/E 1.71) over 10f and 5lb claimer A Young really is a jockey to keep on the right side of at this time of year (31% SR, A/E 2.17) along with a decent 26% SR (A/E 1.85) on soft/heavy.

14:20 2:20 Epsom Downs

Anniversary

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.25

Lose

-50

I think that ANNIVERSARY will take all beating in the feature at Epsom this afternoon. Glittering Legend has a negative jockey booking in D Muscutt with his awful 1/61 record (A/E 0.14) over 8.5f, meanwhile Too Soon carries a poor FlatStats rating. Archie’s Angel will do well to overcome Dark Angel’s 3% SR (A/E 0.5) with outsiders on undulating courses and R Ryan’s 2% SR (A/E 0.28) on outsiders when the going is soft. The Green Mile is more difficult to rule out, however his debut success was in a very weak race so will have to really take a step forward today. Anniversary too was a debut winner, coming at HQ last month. The son of Sea The Moon wasn’t fancied at all that day but stayed on nicely to win by 3/4l and has an extra 1/2f today to aid his cause. The R Beckett yard are in decent form (30% SR, A/E 1.13 over the past month), as they usually are in the autumn, so I see no reason as to why their charge won’t come forward here. 5/4 taken.

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28 September 2024

20:00 8:00 Chelmsford City

Diligent Henry

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@SP

Lose

-50

Twitch is easy enough to oppose here given G Dobie’s 4% SR (A/E 0.38) on Saturdays, meanwhile Profitman carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside B Brookhouses’ generally poor 8% SR (A/E 0.3) with fancied runners. Next up DILIGENT HENRY makes plenty of appeal at 6/1; the Due Diligence gelding has come runner-up on his last two starts, both coming over 7f at Wolvo. He lost out by a neck LTO after hanging right in the final stages, so hopefully application of the visor here will focus the 3yo. L Edmunds is a jockey I pay close attention to the on AW, particularly in sprints, and his 31% SR (A/E 1.48) on fancied sprinters who have C&D wins adds further confidence.

15:40 3:40 Newmarket

Dutch Decoy

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@51.00

Lose

-50

Roi De France has to be taken on here given B Nielsen’s 17% SR (A/E 0.44) with favourites on Saturdays and terrible 1/36 record (A/E 0.17) at HQ. It’s a complete unknown as to whether This Songisforyou will act on the ground, meanwhile D Egan is in poor form (3% SR, A/E 0.23) which makes Poniros hard to side with. I think it wise to take a wild old swing in this years’ Cambridgeshire and DUTCH DECOY makes plenty of appeal at 40/1 (6 places). The Dutch Art gelding went close on soft ground in the Golden Mile last year off a 4lb higher mark and while hasn’t won over 9f here, has won on 3 occasions at HQ over a mile. He finished 2l 6th in last years’ renewal of this and has shown that he’s retained plenty of ability this season as a 7yo. DA’s 8% SR (A/E 1.57) with outsiders at Midlands’ courses adds further confidence.

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14:40 2:40 Haydock

Parisiac

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@SP

Lose

-50

Trilby’s poor FlatStats rating is enough to make me take on the market leader, meanwhile Wobwobwob is too high in the handicap (0/11 when at or above this mark). Harry’s Halo has to be respected given his form this season, however that’s all come in lesser competition and E Jones has a poor 2/55 record (A/E 0.33) with sole mounts which makes Knebworth hard to side with. Next up PARISIAC is a very consistent sort on the turf and won on his 2nd start for current connections. He failed to back that up on his next two starts, but still gave admirable displays and ran a huge race in the Ayr Bronze Cup last week (1.75l 2nd) off a 1lb lower mark. The 5yo’s won on soft and heavy before, with a couple of places to boot, so conditions won’t hinder him and M Tabti is a positive jockey booking given his 19% SR (A/E 1.5) on galloping courses and same SR (A/E 1.43) on soft/heavy ground. 10/1 taken with 4 places.

26 September 2024

20:30 8:30 Southwell

Smokey Malone

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.00

Lose

-50

SMOKEY MALONE looks to have plenty going for him and should take all the beating in the curtain closer at Southwell. The Outstrip gelding is 2/3 over C&D, most recently back in January off a 3lb higher mark. He hasn’t been seen to best effect since but has ran admirably enough and was put away for a couple of months over the summer in sight of a busy AW campaign. A lofty FlatStats rating along, a positive draw in stall 10 and J Feilden’s superb 52% SR (A/E 1.53) with favourites keeping to the same class are all reasons to be confident. 3/1 taken.

25 September 2024

16:05 4:05 Goodwood

Savvy Victory

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@11.00

Lose

-50

I can completely understand Botanical being market leader here, and part of me wants to side with him again, however I really think that SAVVY VICTORY is the bet each way at 10/1. The son of New Bay is a C&D winner and plenty of positives can be taken from his four starts this season; the most notable being a 1.75l 2nd in a listed contest at Sandown in July. He’s clearly not up to Group level, as his 6l 6 of 7 at Windsor last month suggests, so the drop back down to listed company will aid his cause. NB brings a number of positive stats to boost claims further; most notably a 25% SR (A/E 1.31) with runners dropping in class, 23% SR (A/E 1.35) over 10f and 19% SR (A/E 1.25) in C1-3 races.

14:55 2:55 Goodwood

Rhoscolyn

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.33

Win

166

Magic Memories is easy enough to oppose here given his poor FlatStats rating and a number of negative stats for P Cole make Thunder Ball just as easy to take on. Next up RHOSCOLYN has something to prove on recent form but is down to his last winning mark which came in this race last year. He’s a proven mudlark and the D O’Meara yard are going all-guns blazing of late (19% SR, A/E 1.27 over the past month) so his charge should be firing on all cylinders after a month off. 10/3 taken.

22 September 2024

17:12 5:12 Hamilton

Jaminoz

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@10.00

Lose

-50

I suspect that the market has got this spot-on with Susiesparkle, however I think the race for the places is wide-open and JAMINOZ should go well at 9/1. T Eaves isn’t a jockey that you want in long distance races (9% SR, A/E 0.41 when fancied) which puts Ribble River up against it, meanwhile the T Easterby yard form leaves plenty to be desired for That’s My Boy Luke (6% SR, A/E 0.53). Roman Secret carries a poor FlatStats rating with O Orr’s low 6% SR (A/E 0.42) in September tempering enthusiasm further. V Twelve is more difficult to put a line through but preference falls to Jaminoz being a LTO winner course winner (11f) on heavy ground. The 5yo relishes some cut in the ground, so I’m hoping that ground is a bit deeper than the good to soft recorded, but his victory here from front-running tactics by A Young really played to his strengths and the front two pulled a few lengths clear. The 5lb claimer keeps the ride which is a positive given his record in Autumn (32% SR, A/E 2.45) and the L Russell yard form boosts claims (19% SR, A/E 1.94 over the past fortnight).

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21 September 2024

15:55 3:55 Newmarket

Premiere Ligne

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.00

Win

I think Tactician can be taken on here given Denford Stud’s 10% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied runners on Saturdays and the fact that H Turner is having an awful season (6% SR, A/E 0.6). Trooper Bisdee will do well to overcome Australia’s 10% SR (A/E 0.41) with fancied runners on triangle-shaped courses, meanwhile Robert Johnson, Diamond Bay and Story Horse carry poor FlatStats ratings. PREMIERE LIGNE has been in the form of his life since a break and wind op over the winter and looks value at 8/1 (4 places). The Lope De Vega gelding ran well on seasonal appearance at Windsor (1.5l 3rd of 14) before winning with plenty in hand at Lingfield (2l). He’s come runner-up on all three starts since, most notably LTO at Goodwood where he was upped to 20.5f and also up a couple of classes. H Crouch is a positive jockey booking given his huge 48% SR (A/E 1.56) on fancied LDV progeny.

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15:35 3:35 Ayr

Ramazan

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

My play in the Ayr Gold Cup comes in the form of RAMAZAN at 12/1 with 6 places. The son of Kodiac was a neck 2nd in this last year, only losing to a horse who was 2lb well-in and clearly targeted at the race. He’s ran well on every start since, without actually getting his head in front, but has accumulated four 2nd's from seven runs, the most recent of which coming in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last month. The gelding was clearly drawn on the wrong side of the track that day but finished off his race nicely to lose out by 3/4l and has been raised 3lb in the handicap subsequently. O McSweeney’s 22% SR (A/E 2.06) in September boosts claims further.

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14:05 2:05 Newbury

Not So Sleepy

Daily Racing

25 EWNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@13.00

Win

360

I’m wading in again with old friend NOT SO SLEEPY here at 12/1 with 4 places on offer. Waxing Gibbous is a vulnerable given H Davies’s 15% SR (A/E 0.43) with favs over long distances, meanwhile E Bethell’s 7% SR (A/E 0.31) with fancied runners wearing cheek pieces suggests that Chillingham is too short. King Power hold a poor record with runners over the longer trips (7% SR, A/E 0.43) so that makes Lieber Power hard to side with and Ithaca’s Arrow carries a poor FlatStats rating along with plenty of negatives for S Hitchcott, Ulysses and D Ffrench Davis. I think it wise to look at the double-digit runners and of those NSS makes plenty of appeal. The 12yo veteran has shown plenty of life by winning the Fighting Fifth in December and running well in defeat on his two flat starts this season. He won this last year off a 1lb lower mark under similar conditions, again coming back off a decent break, so there’s plenty in his favour. H Morrison’s 20% SR (A/E 1.45) for L Blyth adds further confidence.

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20 September 2024

16:15 4:15 Ayr

Cold Stare

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Win

My play in the Ayr Bronze Cup comes in the form of COLD STARE at 14/1 (6 places). The D O’Meara-trained gelding was a 3/4l runner-up in this race last year off a 1lb lower mark and has clearly been targeted at this given he’s returning off a 2-month break. Before that he’d ran 24 times since April last year without a decent rest so is an incredibly hardy sort and the yard form suggests that he’ll be on-song today (17% SR, A/E 1.18). D Tudhope holds a solid 21% SR (A/E 1.55) in 6f handicaps ay Ayr when riding for the yard and Intense Focus’s 30% SR (A/E 1.71) with fancied runners in September is another positive stat.

15:55 3:30 Newbury

King Of Cities

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.00

Lose

-50

I think the market has got this wrong and that KING OF CITIES should be favourite, making the Dubawi colt value at 2/1. Regal Ulixes ran a solid race in defeat (2l 3rd of 10) at Goodwood earlier this month, so he should clearly come forward, however KOC also gave a decent debut effort at HQ in August (2l 3rd of 9) and backed that up with a comfortable victory at Chester LTO (1.25l) over 7f when upped to C2 company. He stayed on nicely enough to suggest that a mile will be his bag and his breeder’s (owner too) 23% SR (A/E 1.26) at straight courses adds plenty of confidence.

15:25 2:55 Newbury

War Howl

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@29.00

Lose

-50

I can’t help but feel that WAR HOWL is massively overpriced here at 28/1 with 4 places on offer. The son of Bated Breath ran a huge race at HQ on just his 2nd start, only finding the eventual Gimcrack runner-up and a NTO C2 maiden 3rd too good for him. He flattered to deceive at Salisbury NTO but ran a respectable race on handicap debut at Kempton when upped to 7f earlier this month. The 2yo was forced to race wide throughout but was only beaten 4l and runs off a 2lb lower mark here today. A handful of positive stats boost claims further; BB’s 6% SR (A/E 1.35) with outsiders in sprints, B Meehan’s 8% SR (AE 1.78) with outsiders on Fridays, his 8% SR (A/E 1.73) with outsiders over 7f and 14% SR (A/E 1.72) over C&D.

19 September 2024

17:15 5:15 Pontefract

On The River

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Lose

-50

Lerwick is probably just about the right fav here but Theme Park can be opposed given N Tinkler’s horrendous 5% SR (A/E 0.41) at Pontefract. You’re getting four places and I think a solid each way play is ON THE RIVER at 12/1. The Heeraat gelding has been running well enough in defeat of late, most recently finishing 4l 4th of 10 in a C2 handicap at Ripon. He won in July at the same course off a 1lb lower mark (C4) so should be weighted well enough and is dropping back down to C4 company here. The 5yo has a positive draw in stall 10 (high best) and H Bethell is a very profitable trainer to back on the turf with a deluge of positive stats; most notable being her 26% SR (A/E 1.68) when booking C Hardie, 27% SR (A/E 1.77) with sole runners that day and 22% SR (A/E 1.43) with handicappers.

16:25 4:25 Yarmouth

Smart Hero

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

I really think that SMART HERO is the one to beat at 4/1. Amazonian Dream has as poor draw to overcome, meanwhile O McSweeney’s 9% SR (A/E 0.46) with fancied runners on straight courses makes First Folio hard to side with. The Good Biscuit is more difficult to rule out, however Buccabay holds a poor FlatStats rating along with a negative draw. SH is a fairly unexposed 3yo who only started his career this season with three successive runs on the AW; he was then put away for a couple of months and given a wind op, returning at Sandown and losing by a neck. He dropped back down in class LTO at Southwell but won that as easy as he liked (4l) so you’d expect a solid display today on turf return. His owner’s 43% SR (A/E 1.55) with fancied runners on Thursdays adds further confidence.

18 September 2024

16:05 4:05 Yarmouth

Mythical Guest

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@21.00

Lose

-50

You can take on Roi De France here given K Shoemark’s 5% SR (A/E 0.33) on Sea The Stars progeny. James Webb is just as easy to put a line through given his poor FlatStats rating and American Pharoah’s 10% SR (A/E 0.33) with fancied colts, meanwhile S De Sousa has a poor record on Godolphin runners (10% SR, A/E 0.42) so Arctic Mountain is hard to side with. S bin Suroor’s 15% SR (A/E 0.48) with fancied runners at Yarmouth alongside C Howarth’s terrible 4% SR (A/E 0.16) with fancied runners on flat courses makes Long Tradition a long shot, however MYTHICAL GUEST was a course winner back in April and can return to form here with the drop in class. The 4yo defeated Daysofourlives at HQ a couple of starts later, with that one running a huge race at Ascot NTO and winning at the St Leger meeting just gone. He left plenty to be desired over C&D LTO but was kept wide throughout and the draw is much kinder today. Make Believe’s 10% SR (A/E 1.78) with outsiders over the middle distances and H Davies’s general 7% SR (A/E 1.21) on outsiders adds further confidence. 20/1 taken.

14:20 2:20 Sandown

Caspian King

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@21.00

Lose

-50

Wild Nature is the right fav here given his debut 2nd over C&D LTO, however Diomed Bloodstock represent little value with their Irish-sired runners (5% SR, A/E 0.46) and that makes Prince Of The Seas easy enough to oppose. Almeric carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside Study Of Man’s 10% SR (A/E 0.28) with fancied runners in stakes races, meanwhile Sword Of Wessex carries a poor FS rating also. I like the chances of CASPIAN KING to run a big race and 20/1 looks huge each way value. The son of Persian King is twice-raced; finishing 5l 8th of 12 over 7f here at Sandown before being upped to C2 company at Goodwood and taking a step forward (6.5l 7th of 11). This is a couple of class drops to make life easier and a number of positive stats for D Menuisier boosts claims; most notably a 22% SR (A/E 1.57) at Sandown.

15 September 2024

16:20 4:20 Bath

Under Curfew

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@26.00

Lose

-50

I think that UNDER CURFEW is a ridiculous price at 25/1 with 5 places on offer. Lipsink is a vulnerable fav with A Rawlinson booked who carries a poor 8% SR (A/E 0.36) on runners coming up in class, meanwhile E de Giles’ horrendous 3% SR (A/E 0.33) with fancied runners in C1-3 races makes Treacherous very easy to oppose. A case can be made for Silent Flame given his lofty FlatStats rating, however R Coakley isn’t a jockey you want on runners coming up in class either (7% SR, A/E 0.5). Glamorous Express and Beyond Equal carry poor FS ratings so are likely to offer little value, Sarah’s Verse has to overcome R Harris’s 5% SR (A/E 0.5) when the jockey has just 2 rides that day. I think it wise to look at the bigger prices and UC makes the most appeal to me; the Stimulation gelding has held his form well this year including wins here at Bath (5f) and at Salisbury (5f), plus a couple of places. This is a step up a couple of classes but he would’ve gone much closer at Brighton over 6f LTO if not denied a clear run a crucial stage.

15:40 3:40 Bath

Cherry Cola

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Win

Al Sayah’s poor FlatStats rating along with N Mulholland’s 3% SR (A/E 0.44) in 3yo+ races makes the jolly easy enough to oppose here. Grey Owl made some appeal given his win LTO at Salisbury, however he’s up a whopping 4 classes today and that leaves a huge question mark. Spitfire Bridge is easy enough to put a line through given R Dawson’s record at Bath (13% SR, A/E 0.46 when fancied), meanwhile Boy George has to overcome Equiano’s 8% SR (A/E 0.32) with fancied 7yo’s and D Ffrench Davis’s 4% SR (A/E 0.31) with runners returning off of 8 to 14 days away. Next up CHERRY COLA is the one I’m siding with at 9/1 (4 places); the Sixties Icon mare placed in this race last season off an 8lb higher mark and she’s been running well enough this season to suggest that she’s got a win in her. SI’s 16% SR (A/E 1.33) with use of cheek pieces along with S West’s 25% SR (A/E 1.55) provides hope that they could rekindle the fire in the 8yo.

14:05 2:05 Doncaster

Good Earth

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.00

Lose

-50

Brave Nation can be opposed here given H Crouch’s terrible 13% SR (A/E 0.37) on M Bell-trained favourites. A case can be made for Badri given his FlatStats rating and the M Herrington yard form, however his 2 runs at Doncaster previously leave plenty to be desired and he’s only won once from 14 tries on a galloping track such as this. Haymaker has never won from 12 runs at or above his current mark, however GOOD EARTH is looking for a hat trick and B De La Sayette keeps the partnership intact. I really think that the market has the Herrington runners the wrong way around, especially given Sayette’s 21% SR (A/E 1.38) on pear-shaped courses and Acclamation’s 25% SR (A/E 1.71) with his progeny when bred by Stall Parthenaue. GE has ran three times here, all coming over 6f but he won a couple of years back and gave a fair enough display last July when 3l 5th of 10. He ran in a big-field handicap here in April on soft ground but was never fancied (40/1 SP) and is now 5lb lower in the handicap but in better form. 8/1 each way taken.

14 September 2024

17:25 5:25 Doncaster

Johan

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTETip made at odds of 13.00 on 14/09 at 07:390.10 deduction for Mirsky@9.00 withdrawn at 09:31R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 12.00 x (1-0.10) = 11.80Best Odds Guaranteed SP 19.00 used instead of 11.80 BOG

@19.00

Win

540

JOHAN makes so much appeal here at 12/1 with 4 places on offer. The son of Zoffany won the Lincoln here a couple of years back on reappearance off a 3lb lower mark, and while he’s only been seen 6 times since, he was also successful in the Golden Mile at Goodwood on seasonal appearance last season. He tends to have decent breaks between races nowadays, whether through design or not, and always tends to go well so I don’t see the 175-day absence as an issue. The 7yo’s owner’s 18% SR (A/E 1.68) with runners who finished 7th of worse LTO and J Channon’s 23% SR (A/E 1.44) with milers provides plenty of reason for optimism.

16:15 4:15 Doncaster

Parlando

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

Joint top + blue FlatStats rated PARLANDO makes plenty of each way appeal here at 9/1. The son of Dubawi ran three times in the Racing League; finishing 8th of 12 at Yarmouth, winning by 1.25l at Windsor and then finishing a 1/2l runner-up at Newcastle last month. He’s 5lb higher now than that win at Windsor, but that’s more than fair in my eyes and I Williams has a great record going left-handed here at Doncaster (20% SR, A/E 1.48). S De Sousa’s season has really tailed off, however his 28% SR (A/E 1.41) with Godolphin-bred runners and WIlliams’ 19% SR (A/E 1.86) for the same adds reason for optimism.

14:40 2:40 Chester

Sheradann

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@13.00

Lose

-50

My only play at Chester this afternoon comes in the form of SHARADANN at 14/1 with 4 places. Vera Verto is a windy fav given Prince Of Lir’s 3% SR (A/E 0.32) with runners coming up in trip, meanwhile Spirit Mixer has placed just once from 13 starts at this level so can’t be trusted. Emiyn has to overcome Z Wheatley’s 3% SR (A/E 0.16) on fancied runners when he has just a couple of mounts that day and B Ellison’s runners (Tashkhan) just don’t deal with heavy ground (6% SR, A/E 0.44). It makes sense to me to look at the double digit runners and Sheradann appeals to me the most; the son of Roaring Lion has proven form on ground with plenty of cut in it and holds a plum draw in stall 2. He hasn’t hit the ground running for his new connections but the penny is sure to drop soon and F Norton’s 19% SR (A/E 1.77) with runners wearing the tongue strap suggests that his mount could be value.

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14:35 2:35 Lingfield

The Thames Boatman

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.33

Win

166

I really fancy the chances of THE THAMES BOATMAN here. Mc Loven will do well to overcome P Bradley's 11% SR (A/E 0.47) on fancied sprinters and the market has struggled to split the front pair. TBB is 2/2 at Lingfield, most recently winning by 1.5l over 6f, so suits the track well and a couple of positive stats boost claims further; Havana Grey's 36% SR (A/E 1.74) over 5f at Lingfield and F Marsh's 27% SR (A/E 1.73) in C1-3 races on the AW.

14:25 2:25 Doncaster

Dream Composer

Daily Racing

25 EW

@29.00

Lose

-50

I can’t quite grasp the price of DREAM COMPOSER here at 28/1 (6 places). The Dream Ahead gelding won at Pontefract LTO, comfortably beating American Affair by 1.5l but somehow DC is 4x the price of the latter. Apprentice J Leavy keeps the ride, and while he has dropped down to a 3lb claim since that run last month, he’s fantastic value for it and having a fantastic season (17% SR, A/E 1.19). He’s started the Autumn strong with a 29% SR (A/E 1.83) and teams up well with H Evans (23% SR, A/E 1.43) so I’m expecting a confident ride. DC has been a fantastic servant for connections and holds a 23% SR (A/E 1.54), plus Leavy’s 19% SR (A/E 1.44) in 3yo+ adds further confidence.

1 member found this comment useful

Shagraan

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

I’ve taken Dream Composer as an each way play in the Portland however I still think that SHAGRAAN is the one to beat. The Sioux Nation gelding is vying with Cover Up for market leadership, however the latter carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside Exceed And Excel’s horrendous 3% SR (A/E 0.11) with fancied runners over 5.5f. Shagraan won over the minimum trip at Haydock last Saturday, running on late to beat Jer Batt by 1/2l and has been raised just 3lb. The nature of that success suggests that he’ll relish the extra 1/2f today and while the quick turnaround is an unknown, SN progeny tend to keep their fitness (25% SR, A/E 1.25 when returning within a week). M Appleby’s 23% SR (A/E 1.55) for the owner boosts claims further and 13/2 is taken.

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13 September 2024

16:15 4:15 Sandown

Leadman

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.00

Lose

-50

I must be mad for backing a horse who’s been a beaten odds-on shot on his last four starts, but LEADMAN is an appealing price at 6/1. Star Of Orion is an old favourite of mine, however Footstepsinthesand’s 15% SR (A/E 0.5) with market leaders on soft ground makes him easy enough to take on. K Shoemark holds a poor 2/61 record (A/E 0.26) with north-eastern-based trainers and Siyouni’s 9% SR (A/E 0.48) with fancied runners who finished 7th or worse LTO puts Darkness up against it. LM is coming up a couple of classes here but entering handicap company for the FT and a mark of 83 is unlikely to be his ceiling. He’s a son of Kingman so should handle the soft ground and C Hutchinson’s 16% SR (A/E 1.43) in 4yo+ races adds further confidence (23% SR, A/E 1.89 when riding for A Balding).

15:35 3:35 Doncaster

Trueshan

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@4.50

Lose

-50

The Gosden’s 23% SR (A/E 0.5) with favourites owned by Normandie Stud makes Sweet William easy to oppose in the Doncaster Cup. Next up TRUESHAN makes appeal against at 7/2; the gelding may not be the force of old but he’s got a phenomenal 50% SR (A/E 1.60) in his career and showed plenty of ability when winning a listed contest at Sandown in July. We know that he wants a bit of juice in the ground so I’m hoping that it doesn't dry out as the day goes on. He won this last year, beating SW fairly comfortably after battle a couple of furlongs out and the A King yard form suggests that their charge will be firing on all cylinders (3/7, A/E 2.29 over the past fortnight on the flat). A couple of positive stats for Planteur boosts claims further; a 56% SR (A/E 1.66) with fancied runners in 3yo+ races and 37% SR (A/E 2.01) in Autumn.

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15:00 3:00 Doncaster

Big Mojo

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

BIG MOJO just failed to get home at York LTO in the Gimcrack so the drop back to 5f should swing things firmly in his favour here. Magnum Force has plenty of negatives to overcome; most notable being C Keane’s 2/59 record (A/E 0.32) in Group races on British shores and G Lyons’ general 3% SR (A/E 0.26) when flying over the Irish sea. Wathnan Racing have made waves this season, however their 13% SR (A/E 0.5) with fancied runners when the trainer only has a couple at the meeting puts me off Aesterius, meanwhile TS only just edged out MF in a listed contest LTO so his price is short enough. BM shed his maiden tag at 2nd time of asking in the Molecomb, beating home Aesterius by 3/4l. The son of Mohaather was always doing enough that day so I can’t see the form being reversed and S De Sousa’s superb 47% SR (A/E 1.46) on favourites in Group races boosts claims further. This is raised to a whopping 68% SR (A/E 2.09) when the horse has never won at the course previously.

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12 September 2024

17:50 5:50 Doncaster

Trouville

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 15.00 used instead of 11.00 takenBOG

@15.00

Win

10/1 with 4 places for TROUVILLE looks great value to me. Lyric hasn’t been seen since a blowout at Goodwood in listed company in May and that makes him vulnerable, meanwhile J Ferguson’s 8% SR (A/E 0.49) in 3yo+ races makes Kildare Legend easy to cross out. The market is speaking favourably for Raja Raja, however the son of Nathaniel has done nothing on three starts to suggest that he’s up to this level yet. Trouville won on his 3rd start, albeit in a C5 at Chepstow off 5/6 SP, winning by a nose. Connections then gave the son of Le Havre a few months off before a reappearance on handicap debut at Goodwood; I’m not convinced he appreciated the soft ground that day and was hampered by a loose horse to really put the nail in the coffin. Quicker conditions here off an unchanged mark should see the colt run well and his owner’s 33% SR (A/E 1.64) when the trainer only has 2 runners at the meeting adds further confidence.

16:40 4:40 Doncaster

Yaroogh

Daily Racing

25 EWNBNOTETip made at odds of 8.00 on 12/09 at 08:030.15 deduction for Jorge Alvares@5.50 withdrawn at 14:11R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 7.00 x (1-0.15) = 6.95Best Odds Guaranteed SP 7.50 used instead of 6.95 BOG

@7.50

Win

195

I understand why Back In Black is market leader here however a number of negative fav stats make me want to take him on; most notable being D Muscutt’s 16% SR (A/E 0.44) on LTO winners and 16% SR (A/E 0.47) in Autumn. Spell Master will do well to overcome his owners’ 8% SR (A/E 0.29) with fancied 2yo’s in Autumn, meanwhile C Johnston isn’t known for handicap debutants so I can take a pass on Thunder Wonder. Jorge Alvares is of interest, however K Ryan’s horrendous 2% SR (A/E 0.26) over 7f at Doncaster tempers enthusiasm massively and S Gray’s 3% SR (A/E 0.35) at the course makes Qaseem hard to side with. Next up YAROOGH should probably be shorter in the better considering he’s a 2x winner already from four starts; the first of those coming on soft Haydock ground and then backing that up on the Kempton polytrack. Connections chanced the colt at Gr3 level in the Acomb but that clearly came too soon and this is a nice nursery to get back to winning ways. Plenty of positive outsider stats boost claims; most notably W Haggas’ 13% SR (A/E 1.7) with colts. 7/1 (3 places) taken.

14:25 2:25 Doncaster

Intrusively

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-50

D Hogan has a horrendous 2/21 record (A/E 0.31) on favourites who ran 15 to 28 days ago and J Jones’ 4% SR (A/E 0.44) with sole runners that day makes Caburn easy to oppose here. Camille Pissarro has to be taken seriously with a rating of 103 on the back of solid efforts at Group level, however the market has gone cold on the son of Wootton Bassett. You can get 9/2 for next up INTRUSIVELY and I think that’s a decent bet; the Territories colt is rated just 2lb inferior to CP but was only denied by 1.25l in the Group 2 Richmond last month and absolutely demolished the field (6.5l) when dropped into C5 maiden company at Nottingham LTO. That had to have been used as a confidence booster for him and a C2 stakes race should surely be within his reach. E Bethell’s 28% SR (A/E 1.55) on Thursdays adds further confidence.

09 September 2024

16:55 4:55 Wolverhampton

Claim To Glory

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@1.91

Lose

-50

I wouldn’t usually be punting in a class 5 nursery at Wolvo but CLAIM TO GLORY is a high SR system qualifier (62% SR, A/E 1.51) and that makes 10/11 appealing. The Aclaim gelding comes out miles clear on FlatStats ratings; more than double that of the others in the field. Greek Gift has to overcome C Lee’s poor 7% SR (A/E 0.49) on Mondays, meanwhile Cable Bay’s 5% SR (A/E 0.43) with runners coming up in trip makes Lockwood hard to side with. J Moore holds a damning 2% SR (A/E 0.4) with outsiders runner in C4-5 races on the AW, so Keep Singing can’t be sided with, and R Dawson’s 6% SR (A/E 0.44) with sole mounts that day makes outsider Gretna Dreams impossible to back. CTG won over C&D on handicap debut LTO, beating a 4/9 favourite in the process and there must be more to come from the gelding.

08 September 2024

16:00 4:00 York

Pink Crystal

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Lose

-50

She’s going to have to rekindle her flame here but I still think that 14/1 for PINK CRSYSTAL is overpriced (each way). Quinault is the right fav, in search of a hat trick, however S Williams’ favourites tend to falter in the Autumn (13% SR, A/E 0.44) so I don’t expect another win here. Azure Blue will do well to overcome El Kabeir’s 3% SR (A/E 0.35) with runners stepping up in trip, meanwhile Aclaim’s 9% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied runners in Autumn tempers enthusiasm for Purosangue. Cheveley Park have a poor record at York (10% SR, A/E 0.41 when fancied) so Twilight Calls can be opposed. It just makes sense to look at the bigger prices and PC makes appeal on last years’ form; the mare started the season with a couple of C&D runs, finishing just 1.75l behind the winner on both occasions. Connections put her away for a couple of months and returned with aplomb at Ayr, winning a listed contest comfortably. She was then chanced back at Group 3 level, finishing 1l 3rd at Ascot before a fair effort at Lingfield. T Marquand’s 21% SR (A/E 1.62) over 6f at York boosts claims.

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15:25 3:25 York

Old Cock

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.50

Lose

-50

This is about as trappy a handicap as you can get but I think OLD COCK is the one to beat at 7/2. Apiarist can be opposed given Night Of Thunder’s 16% SR (A/E 0.45) with favourites in September and K Ryan’s poor 1/22 record (A/E 0.2) with NOT progeny, meanwhile J Crowley has had a poor season which is clearly linked to Shadwell’s decline and that makes Markoon hard to side with. Both Zain Blue and Marcella carry poor FlatStats ratings and I suspect that Amsterdam will have too much on his plate off a mark of 80 in a higher class. OC carries a top + blue FS rating and had a tremendously fruitful campaign already (3 wins from 5 starts). The most recent success came at Haydock a month ago but the son of Calyx took the step up in class in his stride so I don’t expect an 8lb rise in the weights to hinder him. C Rodriguez is highly underrated in the higher classes (26% SR, A/E 1.34 when fancied) and E Bethell’s 33% SR (A/E 1.62) with use of the tongue strap adds further confidence.

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07 September 2024

17:35 5:35 Thirsk

Finbars Lad

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.00

Lose

-50

This is a trappy little handicap but the higher draw is likely to hold an advantage and FINBAR’S LAD should be able to build on his performances so far this season. He’s finished runner-up on a couple of occasions, 3rd LTO and a 1.25l 4th of 11 from 6 starts so is clearly in fine fettle and a mark of 75 is unlikely to hinder the gelding. Territories’ 40% SR (A/E 1.62) with fancied runners carrying 9-4 to 9-6 boosts claims further.

16:40 4:40 Haydock

Red Hat Eagle

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 15.00 on 07/09 at 15:080.10 deduction for Leadenhall@10.00 withdrawn at 16:41R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 14.00 x (1-0.10) = 13.60Best Odds Guaranteed SP 15.00 used instead of 13.60 BOG

@15.00

Win

Rogue Encore is likely to take all the beating here but I think the places are wide open and RED HAT EAGLE looks a huge price at 14/1 (4 places). The Gleneagles gelding notched up a brace of wins at HQ and Chelmsford in June and July, respectively, before running another solid race back at HQ (3/4l 2nd of 8). He faltered slightly at Wolvo LTO (8.5f) in a race which wasn’t ran optimally so I’m willing to forgive him for that and the booking of B Wilkie is a positive given the claimers’ huge 32% SR (A/E 2.19) when riding for W Knight.

16:20 4:20 Kempton

Batal Dubai

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

My only play at Kempton today comes in the form of BATAL DUBAI at 20/1 with 4 places on offer. Heathcliff is the right favourite, in search of a hat trick, however S Osbourne performs poorly on runners carrying 8-12 to 9-0 (5% SR, A/E 0.48) so their price is short enough. Ferrous has to overcome E Greatrex’s 8% SR (A/E 0.38) on fancied runners in Autumn, meanwhile C Planas hugely underperforms on the AW so you can’t be trusting in Al Barez. BD has struggled to keep form this season but has been given a couple of months off and is back down to his last winning mark. The 4yo was a 3/4l runner up on his last C&D run back in February so a return here can rejuvenate the gelding and H Charlton’s 29% SR (A/E 1.6) with runners carrying 9-4 to 9-6 adds further confidence.

15:50 3:50 Thirsk

Lir Speciale

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

10/1 is a decent each way price for LIR SPECIALE. Mukaafah carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside Blue Point’s 11% SR (A/E 0.26) with favs coming up in trip, meanwhile Mythical Phoenix carries an equally as poor FS rating with the booking of R Sexton who brings a terrible 4% SR (A/E 0.35) in the month of September. Kings Merchant has to overcome C Rodriguez’s 4% SR (A/E 0.18) on fancied runners over 6f at Thirsk and Grant Wood holds a poor FS rating so is likely to offer little value. I think it wise to look at the double-digit runners and it’s no forlorn hope that IS bounces back to form off his lowest mark for a couple of years. A repeat of his 2.5l 4th of 7 at HQ (7f) on his penultimate start should see him thereabouts over 6f off a 4lb lower mark and Prince Of Lir’s 21% SR (A/E 1.85) in September adds further confidence.

15:35 3:35 Haydock

Elite Status

Daily Racing

25 EW

@6.50

Lose

-50

I understand why Inisherin is market leader but I can’t get away from one of my favourite horses in training, ELITE STATUS at 11/2. The son of Havana Grey has done nothing but improve this season; comfortably winning the listed Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury on seasonal appearance before stepping up to Group 3 level and winning the Hackwood over the same C&D. This is another chance back at the top table where he faltered badly on his two starts, but he looks a more rounded individual as a 3yo and is up to this level in a wide-open field. K Burke’s superb 38% SR (A/E 1.37) with fancied runners for the owner is another reason to be optimistic.

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15:20 3:20 Ascot

Brioni

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@6.00

Win

250

Zoffany’s 12% SR (A/E 0.38) with favourites who finished 7th or worse LTO makes Hosaamm easy to oppose here. I think a strong case can be made for BRIONI at 5/1; the Cloth Of Stars gelding was unfancied in the market LTO (22/1 SP) but ran a huge race to be denied by a neck. He showed huge grit and determination that day to rally back for 2nd and I think that no fluke given it was his first run back after wind surgery. The ground is an unknown but a couple of positive fancied stats for A King make his charge too hard to resist; a 37% SR (A/E 1.36) with LTO runner-ups and 33% SR (A/E 1.49) on triangle-shaped courses.

14:25 2:25 Haydock

Grand Alliance

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Lose

-50

There’s a big angle in here and that’s W Buick riding a mount in which R Moore failed to place on LTO (50% PR, A/E 1.71); GRAND ALLIANCE fits the bill here and I can’t ignore the price at 16/1 with 4 places on offer. The son of Churchill has to burden top weight and hasn’t been seen for over a year, but his win at Group 3 level last year and 1.25l 2nd of 9 in Group 2 level at Deauville showed that he’s got plenty of ability. He’s comes out top + blue on FlatStats ratings and his owner, Mrs S Roy, is clearly very patient with her runners as she brings a superb 22% SR (A/E 1.57) with runners returning off a 57+ day break.

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13:50 1:50 Haydock

Master Builder

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.00

Win

150

MASTER BUILDER is my strongest fancy of the day and 3/1 seems huge value at head of the market. The son of Mastercraftsman made a hugely impressive handicap debut at York LTO in the Melrose (2.5l 3rd of 16), beating home Too Bossy For Us and Spaceport. He was denied a clear run until a couple of furlongs out but stayed on nicely enough to suggest that the trip is perfectly suited to the gelding. A deluge of positive favourite stats boost claims further; most notable being D Menuisier’s 44% SR (A/E 1.31) with runners carrying 9-4+ and his 41% SR (A/E 1.29) with handicappers.

13:15 1:15 Haydock

Ciceros Gift

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

Holloway Boy has come in for plenty of support this morning but I have to be taking him on given Ulysses’ 14% SR (A/E 0.39) with favs coming up in class. CICERO’S GIFT did the business on his penultimate start at Sandown on soft ground and probably found the ground just too fast at Goodwood LTO when failing to beat a rival home. It’s likely to be on the softer side of good today so the conditions will suit the colt much better and a few positive fancied stats make 9/2 an easy price to back; Muhaarar’s 46% SR (A/E 1.77) at Haydock, C Hills’ 42% SR (A/E 1.68) with Muhaarar progeny and R Ryan’s 28% SR (A/E 1.26) on 4yo’s.

06 September 2024

16:45 4:45 Ascot

Hafeet Alain

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@13.00

Lose

-50

HAFEET ALAIN holds, by far, the best record on similar going (3/7, A/E 3.07) and he’s also 4/8 (A/E 3.79) over a mile on the turf which makes 12/1 a decent each way price. Awaal will need to come forward from his 5.25l defeat in the Bunbury Cup and is clearly difficult to keep fit, meanwhile Theoryofeverything is 0/9 when at or above his current mark. Bennetot carries a poor FlatStats racing and Tempus just doesn’t look the force of old with just a couple of places from 12 starts over the past couple of years. Classic also carries a poor FS rating and his owners’ 6% SR (A/E 0.44) with runners keeping to the same class adds little confidence. HA is next up in the market and won on seasonal appearance at HQ in April before failing to see out the trip when upped a furlong. He hasn’t been seen since May but goes well off a break and should be highly competitive off a mark of 97. E Walker’s 20% SR (A/E 1.43) with Australian-based sires and S Osbourne’s 16% SR (A/E 1.65) at Ascot adds further confidence.

14:25 2:25 Ascot

Too Soon

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTETip made at odds of 15.00 on 06/09 at 10:090.10 deduction for Tornado Alert@9.00 withdrawn at 11:05R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 14.00 x (1-0.10) = 13.60Best Odds Guaranteed SP 17.00 used instead of 13.60 BOG

@17.00

Win

This is a really tough looking maiden but I think TOO SOON is being overlooked and 14/1 could prove decent value each way. Isambard Brunel carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside his owners’ 20% SR (A/E 0.5) with favourites in C1-3 races and Justify’s 10% SR (A/E 0.3) with fancied runners on straight courses. Fifth Column carries a similarly poor FS rating and the Gosden’s 11% SR (A/E 0.5) with fancied runners over 7f at Ascot adds further doubt. TS ran a really nice race on debut at Goodwood a month ago; coming from the rear whilst being tentatively handled by T Queally who struggles to make 9-2 nowadays. This is a drop in class for the son of Too Darn Hot and should relish the softer ground as TDH progeny tend to. R Clutterbuck is a decent jockey booking given how well he rides on this going (16% SR, A/E 1.5) and TDH’s 32% SR (A/E 1.72) in September adds further confidence of a step forward here.

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