CalFergie

I’m fully respecting of Duke Of Oxford here, however M Bell’s 17% SR (A/E 0.46) with favourites on Wednesdays puts me off. Caprelo carries a poor FlatStats rating along with H Morrison’s poor 5% SR (A/E 0.45) in C1-3 races on the AW, meanwhile Sheradann has to overcome E Greatrex’s poor form of late (1/23, A/E 0.34). Enemy is burdened by I Williams’ 4% SR (A/E 0.38) with horses aged 8+ and Another Run is overrun with negatives for breeder Minch Bloodstock. This looks a race for an each way play and SAX APPEAL makes plenty of appeal at 14/1 with 4 places; the son of Saxon Warrior has had a tremendous year, including wins here over C&D, Newcastle and Beverley. His most recent run came at Wolvo, finishing 2.5l 3rd of 6 where they crawled around, and the same can be said for his Southwell run prior to that (1/2l 2nd of 4). The gelding is running off his highest ever, and unchanged, handicap mark but there must be more to come given SW’s 26% SR (A/E 1.63) with 5yo’s and the yard are in great form (24% SR, A/E 1.57 over the past month).

I can't be having Shader here given Juddmonte's 19% SR (A/E 0.37) with favourites who are the trainers only runner that day and 24% SR (A/E 0.47) with geldings who are fav. Next up DUBAI HONOUR makes plenty of appeal at 2/1; the son Pride Of Dubai has shown himself to be a top-quality horse, including Gr1 wins in Australia and France along with multiple other places. He was last seen finishing a short-head 2nd in a Gr2 at Longchamp and is unexposed on the AW so must be there at the finish. Multiple positive stats for POD boost claims further; most notable being a 28% SR (A/E 1.68) at Southwell (2/6, A/E 1.96 over C&D).

Completely Random can be opposed here given H Charlton’s 11% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied runners carrying 8-12 to 9-0. Heathcliff is an old friend and has come in for support, however the J Fanshawe yard are 1/37 (A/E 0.2) over the past month so you can’t be confident of a good run today. COUL ANGEL has a 6lb penalty to carry after two wins sandwiched a 1.5l 3rd if 10, but he can still give a solid account at 10/3. The son of Coulsty has had a busy year, starting on the AW with wins here at Kempton and Southwell before a stint on the turf where he won one and placed on a further couple. He returned to the sand in great form at Wolvo and backed that up over C&D just a week ago, looks a highly progressive sort and R Havlin’s 44% SR (A/E 1.61) on fancied runners returning within a week adds further confidence.

A King’s 16% SR (A/E 0.45) with favourites at northern courses makes Alcarath easy enough to oppose here. Have Secret has plenty of negatives to overcome; most notable being W Fentiman’s 4% SR (A/E 0.36) when riding for R Fahey, meanwhile the D O’Meara pair can be discounted on the basis of the yard form (2/29, A/E 0.41 over the past fortnight). Project Geofin could prove the fly in the ointment but I think the better value lies with SPIORADALTA at 9/1 (each way); the son of Rajasinghe has had a stellar season including four wins on the bounce, with the losing sequence being stopped at York LTO. That came in a big field handicap over the extended 10f, which he was trying for the FT, so excuses can be made and I’m fully expecting a bounce back to form in calmer waters. Rajasinghe’s 23% SR (A/E 1.55) with runners wearing cheek pieces adds further confidence.