CalFergie
Stick to the good stuff (the flat). Use stats and systems alongside form to find selections. Some tips are based on market support so follow my Twitter handle for updates - @CalFergie
2
Estimated Prizes
this month
£10
Estimated Prize money
this month
CalFergie's Tips History
26 April 2024
15:35 3:35 Sandown
War Rooms
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.00
Lose
-50
Arabian Crown is by far the most likely winner here but I think a solid each way play comes in the form of WAR ROOMS at 6/1. The Churchill colt made an emphatic winning debut at Doncaster last year on soft ground before being upped into listed company and flattering to deceive. He was staying on that day so I suspect the step up to 10f on slightly quicker ground will play to his strengths and it’s no secret as to how well the O Burrows team do in Group races (36% SR, A/E 1.54 when fancied).
14:33 2:33 Doncaster
Surrey Shadow
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@21.00
Win
75
Plenty of positive stats make SURREY SHADOW easy to back each way at 20/1 in the novice event at Doncaster this afternoon. There looks to be a few smart ones in here, including the lofty FlatStats rated Balmacara and Upscale, however it’s best to be drawn low under these conditions over 7f at Doncaster, and while the former is coming from stall 1 he’s got to overcome his owner’s 13% SR (A/E 0.47) with fancied runners from British sires. Nazionale comes out poorly FS rated, so is easy to oppose, meanwhile Midnight’s Dream will do well to overcome the R Varian form slump (7% SR, A/E 0.34 over the past month) on seasonal appearance. The Gosden’s haven’t started the season well either (1/17, A/E 0.26) so I’d expect Stanage to need the run, and T Whelan will likely make So Quiet’s life difficult given his poor record on soft (3% SR, A/E 0.38). N Callan is a jockey you want on debutants (14% SR A/E 1.82) and T Clover does phenomenally well also with FTO’s (20% SR, A/E 2.15) Callan’s 10% SR (A/E 1.97) with outsiders who are the trainer’s only runner at the meeting adds further confidence.
13:50 1:50 Sandown
Royal Supremacy
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@SP
Lose
-50
A deluge of negative favourite stats for Churchill, including a 13% SR (A/E 0.35) with runners up in class and 13% SR (A/E 0.38) in C1-3 races, makes Hand Of God easy to oppose here. Next up ROYAL SUPREMACY makes the most appeal against at 7/2; the son of Make Believe was 2/3 as a 2yo, including a debut win here at Sandown. He failed to back that up at Newbury NTO when upped to C2 novice company but put that behind him when last seen winning over a mile at Kempton in October.
Subtotal-25
25 April 2024
15:55 3:55 Beverley
Classy Boy
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.50
Win
175
7/2 for CLASSY BOY looks fair value to me against a fav who’s coming up a couple of classes after a 1l success LTO. The son of Calyx didn’t win as a 2yo but put in solid efforts on each outing accumulating in four places, including a 1/2l defeat in a C2 nursery on soft ground at York on his penultimate start. That performance suggests the ground won’t be a problem and the K Burke yard have started the season in flying form (24% SR, A/E 1.46) so their charge should be firing on all cylinders on reappearance. Their 33% SR (A/E 1.33) with fancied runners on Thursdays adds further confidence.
Subtotal175
20 April 2024
16:20 4:20 Thirsk
Winged Messenger
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Win
35
My final play of the day comes in the form of WINGED MESSENGER each way at 12/1 in the 5f handicap at Thirsk. Kendall Roy a fair enough jolly given his 4l victory on UK debut 5 days ago, however the quick turn around isn’t sure to suit so at odds-on he’s easy to oppose. WM was a victor when last seen at Hamilton; he was wasn’t a convincing 11/10 winner that day but I expect him to have strengthened up over the winter and the J Camacho yard tend to have them ready off a break. S Osbourne is a positive jockey booking given her historic 22% SR (A/E 1.62) in April.
15:15 3:15 Newbury
Godwinson
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@9.00
Win
15
I’m going to take a flyer on the lightly raced handicap debutant in GODWINSON at 8/1 with 5 places on offer. The Saxon Warrior 4yo showed plenty of promise on his debut season, finishing 2.75l 3rd on debut at Nottingham before a demolition job at Hamilton (4.75l) and hitting traffic problems when last seen at Kempton. The winner of that race is now rated in the 100’s and the 2nd beat Mr Professor 6l on his last start, who won the Lincoln in March, so I suspect an opening mark of 88 will prove very lenient. The break is a question mark but Haggas tends to have them ready in Spring and the owners’ 32% (1.45) with fancied runners keeping to the same trip adds further confidence. Notable mention to Navagio who’s come in for support, and rightly so given his run in the Lincoln.
13:30 1:30 Newbury
Al Qareem
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@7.00
Lose
-50
Juddmonte’s 17% SR (A/E 0.38) with favourites at Newbury and the Gosden’s 13% SR (A/E 0.5) over the past month makes me want to take on Arrest here. A case can absolutely be made for Hamish given his 60% SR career, however father time must catch up with the 8yo soon and I prefer the younger legs of AL QAREEM at 6/1. The Awtaad gelding finished 1.75l 2nd behind Hamish in the St Simon Stakes at HQ when last seen in November on heavy ground. I think the quicker conditions today will reduce that distance and Awtaad’s 36% SR (A/E 1.68) with fancied 5yo’s adds further confidence.
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19 April 2024
14:12 2:12 Newbury
Gisburn
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@12.00
Lose
-50
I think GISBURN is worth a crack at 11/1 here with 5 places on offer. The Ribchester gelding is 2/4 over 6f at Newbury and has shown he appreciates ground some give in it with 2 wins and another couple of solid runs on soft. He won at Goodwood back in October off a break so the absence doesn’t concern me and the booking of S Levey is a positive given he’s started the year off to a flyer (3/15, A/E 1.95). Two of those wins have come for R Hannon and when riding over C&D for the yard holds a superb 21% SR (A/E 1.41).
Subtotal-50
18 April 2024
15:00 3:00 Newmarket
Spycatcher
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 8.50 used instead of 8.00 takenBOG
@8.50
Win
12
I can’t get away from SPYCATCHER in the Abernant Stakes at 7/1 with 4 places on offer. The Vadamos gelding has a superb record when fresh (3 wins and a head 3rd from four) and comfortably won a C3 conditions contest over C&D back in October 2021 so should handle the track. He was last seen finishing 2.25l 3rd of 15 in the Champion Sprint at Ascot, topping off what was a fantastic season with a Gr3 win and short-headed Gr2 defeat at Deaville. The 6yo is likely to give his running again here with C Lee booked, who holds a solid 17% SR (A/E 1.3) over 6f at HQ, and K Burke’s 32% SR (A/E 1.29) with fancied runners on Thursdays adding further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal12
17 April 2024
13:50 1:50 Newmarket
Raatea
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@15.00
Lose
-50
I think RAATEA is worth a chance in the opener at HQ at 12/1 with 5 places on offer. The Invincible Spirit gelding has proven to be a fairly useful operator in handicaps at this level and finished 1/2l 3rd of 12 off a 1lb lower mark a couple of years ago. He’s shown he goes well fresh, so the 215-day break doesn't concern me, plus R Ryan has finished 1.75l 3rd of 12 and 1/2l 2nd of 12 when riding the 7yo previously so looks to have a strong partnership. A handful of positive stats for J Camacho boost claims further; most notably her 36% SR (A/E 1.53) with fancied runners at Midlands courses and 35% SR (A/E 1.57) with fancied runners wearing the hood.
Subtotal-50
16 April 2024
14:55 2:55 Newmarket
Hafeet Alain
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@21.00
Win
600
20/1 for HAFEET ALAIN with 5 places on offer is too hard to resist. The Elzaam gelding is a C&D winner in June last year before backing that up with a neck 2nd over the same C&D a month later. He was upped a couple of classes that day (C2) so is clearly able to operate at this level and this was confirmed with a success in the Autumn Mile at Doncaster in October. He’s won and placed off long absences before so the break doesn’t concern me and S Osbourne is a positive jockey booking given her historic 22% SR (A/E 1.58) in April, her 21% SR (A/E 1.53) with sole mounts that day and 21% SR (A/E 1.8) when riding for E Walker at HQ.
1 member found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Newmarket
Makanah
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@15.00
Win
45
MAKANAH’S 2/5 record (A/E 2.81) on his first run of the year makes him backable at 14/1 with 4 places. The 9yo has only won once from this handicap mark or higher, but has placed on a handful of occasions and is 3W 1P from 6 goes at C3 level so is capable of going well today. Mayson’s 18% SR (A/E 1.32) with runners dropping down in trip adds further confidence.
Subtotal645
15 April 2024
15:42 3:42 Redcar
Look Back Smiling
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.50
Void
0
I fancy the chances of LOOK BACK SMILING at 13/2 for the feature at Redcar this afternoon. Noble Order is a fair fav given his exploits on the AW and soft ground debut at HQ back in October 2021, however he’s clearly one who’s hard to keep sound with a number of absences already in his short career and L Morris’s 11% SR (A/E 0.46) on fancied runners in April adds little confidence. Spirit Genie has to overcome O Orr’s 7% SR (A/E 0.28) on fancied runners in April along with his 9% SR (A/E 0.41) on fancied runners in 4yo+ races, however LBS will handle conditions and made a winning return at in the Spring Mile at Doncaster last month. The son of Fast Company is dropping in class here and 5lb claimer B Wilkie keeps the mount. FC’s 16% SR (A/E 1.27) on soft and trainer G Tutty’s superb 46% SR (A/E 1.58) with fancied runners on galloping courses adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
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07 April 2024
15:48 3:43 Bath
Rhythm N Hooves
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@SP
Lose
-50
Top + blue FlatStats rated RHYTHM N HOOVES makes appeal at 12/1 with 4 places here. The Pearl Secret gelding won 3/8 last year, including a valuable 3yo handicap at Ascot, showing that he’s up to this sort of level. The ground is a question but PS’s 20% SR (A/E 1.74) with 5f sprinters and 12% SR (A/E 1.71) suggests his son may prove value.
Subtotal-50
06 April 2024
16:55 4:55 Kempton
Azure Angel
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.50
Lose
-50
My strongest fancy of the day comes in the form of AZURE ANGEL at 5/2 in the curtain closer at Kempton this evening. The Harry Angel filly has won all starts on the AW (4) including a novice C&D success back in November of 2022. She’s clearly been hard to keep fit with 2 sizeable absences already in under two years but the 4yo looks an incredibly useful prospect for the R Varian team and the booking of J Doyle is a huge positive given his 46% SR (A/E 1.5) for the yard on the AW (3/5 when fav). HA brings a handful of positive favourite stats to boost claims further including a 70% SR (A/E 1.64) at Southern courses, 60% SR (A/E 1.42) on Polytrack and 55% SR (A/E 1.39) over 6f.
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14:40 2:40 Kempton
Killybegs Warrior
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Win
100
My speculative play of the day comes in the form of top + blue FlatStats rated KILLYBEGS WARRIOR at 25/1 with 4 places. Intinso comes out close 2nd on FS ratings but his owner does poorly at Kempton (6% SR, A/E 0.34) so I wouldn’t fancy him running at the course for the FT. Old Harrovian is far too short given the sizeable absence; while he has won comfortably off a similar length break before this is a much tougher contest and Sea The Stars don’t tend to be fully wound up. Chillingham is a nice price but E Bethell’s 15% SR (A/E 0.39) with fancied runners who finished 2nd LTO adds little confidence so it looks best to take a bigger each way price. KW has clear credentials operating at this level on the turf and while hasn’t succeeded on two starts on the AW, Saxon Warrior tend to perform better on this surface so I’m hoping he takes to it today off a decent break. C Johnston holds a fantastic 21% SR (A/E 1.63) with runners returning off 150+ days away and SW’s 23% SR (A/E 1.46) with handicappers adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
13:35 1:30 Kempton
Auric
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@5.00
Win
200
Kodi Lion has come in for support this morning to usurp AURIC as market leader, however the former has C Fellowes’s 13% SR (A/E 0.33) with favourites over 6f to overcome along with his horrific 6% SR (A/E 0.42) in novice events and Kodi Bear’s 6% SR (A/E 0.44) with runners coming up in class. The Havana Gold colt did nothing wrong on debut at Wolvo a month ago and it looked to me as though it was a learning exercise rather than a genuine attempt to win a race. He went off 40/1 so clearly wasn’t expected to trouble the market principles but still finished 2.5l 4th of 8 and can put a foot forward here. Skymarc Farm Inc’s 57% SR (A/E 1.49) with fancied runners in novice races adds plenty of confidence so 4/1 looks generous.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal250
03 April 2024
14:55 2:55 Catterick
Sugarpiehoneybunch
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.50
Lose
-50
My only bet of the day comes in the form of SUGARPIEHONEYBUNCH at 6/1. Clear White Light is the narrow fav but H Russell holds a poor 4% SR (A/E 0.18) with fancied runners on tight courses and Dubawi a 5% SR (A/E 0.14) with fancied runners at Catterick. A case can be made for Heatherdown Hero but he’s 0/6 over the trip and R Menzies’s 10% SR (A/E 0.38) with fancied runners on Wednesdays adds little confidence, meanwhile L Edmunds’s 2% SR (A/E 0.19) over 12f makes The Knot Is Tied difficult to back. SPHB meanwhile won this event last year and looks to be running off a workable mark. The Fast Company mare goes well in the ground (2/5 on soft), which fits in with FC’s 16% SR (A/E 1.27) on the going and his daughter’s draw in stall 13 adds further confidence (highest best). She seems the most obvious choice in this low-level handicap.
Subtotal-50
29 March 2024
16:10 4:10 Newcastle
Blanchland
Daily Racing
25 EW
@SP
Lose
-50
I’m weighing in again on old friend BLANCHLAND at 10/1 (4 places). D Egan holds a 18% SR (A/E 0.48) with favourites on Fridays and Amo Racing’s 5% SR (A/E 0.33) in C1-3 races makes Elegant Man short enough, meanwhile O Murphy doesn’t get along particularly well with Lope De Vega progeny (12% SR, A/E 0.45) so Teumessias Fox can be opposed. A Rawlinson doesn’t operate effectively on fancied runners at Newcastle (12% SR, A/E 0.48) so Penzance looks up against it, and Postponed’s 2% SR (A/E 0.16) in Spring suggests that Oh So Grand won’t be ripe off a break. A case can be made for Storm Catcher, whom was denied by Penzance over C&D on NYD, however I’m sticking by the 4yo Farhh colt in BL. He’s 2/2 at Newcastle, most recently back in October over 12.5f, and is running off just a 1lb higher mark today. He’s failed to back up that effort since but looked to jump back to form in a listed contest at Lingfield in December (1l 3rd of 8). Farhh holds an exceptional record with colts on the AW (27% SR, A/E 1.48) and P Harris’s general 50% SR (A/E 2.15) adds confidence
15:50 3:50 Lingfield
Prince of Zenda
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
Daamberdiplomat could prove a smart bit of placing by J Murtagh, bringing his charge over from Ireland, however I still think PRINCE OF ZENDA is the most likely winner of the Vase sprint handicap. The Kingman gelding is in search of a hat trick of wins, the first of which coming over C&D in a C4. He clearly took a step forward the next day with a 2.25l demolition job at Newcastle and while this is a step up in class, it doesn’t look the strongest of handicaps for the grade. Breeder B Nielsen’s 65% SR (A/E 1.73) with fancied LTO winners suggests that 9/2 is likely value.
14:25 2:25 Newcastle
Sommelier
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.75
Lose
-50
Fire Demon has to be opposed here given Juddmonte’s 11% SR (A/E 0.26) with favs in handicaps on the AW and next up SOMMELIER makes great appeal at 5.0 on the Exchanges. The Due Diligence gelding has done nothing but improve on each start; accumulating 2 wins on the bounce at Chelmsford and Kempton respectively, before giving a bold account when upped to C2 company over C&D in January (1/2l 2nd of 10). He’s been given a break since, is up just 2lb for that effort so looks handicapped to go well and DD’s huge 48% SR (A/E 1.62) with fancied runners hailing from Newmarket-based yards adds further confidence.
14:05 2:05 Lingfield
Inspiritus
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.50
Win
275
I only like the look of one today at Lingfield and that comes in the form of INSPIRITUS at 11/2. Make Believe’s 15% SR (A/E 0.43) with handicap favourites makes Asgard’s Captain easy enough to oppose, meanwhile Bystander is running off a 6lb higher mark than when defeating my pick at over C&D LTO. The R Varian-trained gelding has been raised a couple of pounds for that effort so that makes him a more backable prospect in my eyes and Tullpark Ltd’s 45% SR (A/E 1.68) with fancied runners on Polytrack suggests the Sea The Stars son a worthy bet.
13:53 1:53 Newcastle
Citizen General
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
This is a hugely open marathon handicap and at the prices I like the look of CITIZEN GENERAL at 14/1 with 4 places on offer. The Camelot gelding is 2/4 at Newcastle and most recent success came over 2 miles at Kempton at the beginning of February, demolishing again-today rival Duty Of Care by 4.5l. He was eased down by R Havlin towards the finish so I believe there was plenty more left in the tank and a 7lb rise in the handicap shouldn’t be his ceiling. The E Dunlop team have been quiet of late but have most of their success on the AW in the Spring and are 3/9 (A/E 3.43) over the past month, one of which coming with Havlin on board.
13:18 1:18 Newcastle
Habrdi
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@11.00
Lose
-50
I’m not convinced Orne will progress here given Acclamation 3yo’s really struggle in the Spring months (6% SR, A/E 0.48) and Al Shaqab’s 13% SR (A/E 0.41) with fancied runners in 3yo races. The C Appleby runner must be considered given he’s 2/2 and looks a progressive sort, however this is a big step up from a C4 novice at Wolvo and so doesn’t look worth a chance at the price. Cuban Tiger is another being upped to listed level off of decent displays, however I think he looks more of a sprinter than a miler so I can take him on also. Next up HABRDI looks a decent each way prospect at 10/1. The Calyx colt has ran at this level already; finishing a 3.25l 5th of 10 at Lingfield. That came off a 84-day break and given his blowout off a break previously I’d expect a step forward today. J Chapple-Hyam's 28% SR (A/E 1.75) with Rabbah Bloodstock Ltd-bred runners and 27% SR (A/E 1.68) at Newcastle provides further confidence.
Subtotal25
24 March 2024
15:40 3:40 Doncaster
Stressfree
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.50
Lose
-50
Ensured is the rightful fav for this on the back of two solid runs at Southwell and Kempton respectively, however I think STRESSFREE is a progressive, light-raced sort who should be able to build on his 3yo campaign. The son of Anodin began his career in France, shedding his maiden tag at the 2nd time of asking on soft ParisLongchamp ground. He was moved to D O’Meara towards the end of the season, giving two solid displays before winning comfortably on heavy at Nottingham in October. The 4yo hasn’t been seen since so there’s a question mark there, but he’ll handle conditions, D Tudhope tends to start the season strongly enough (21% SR, A/E 1.71 in March) and the O’Meara yard form adds further confidence (28% SR, A/E 1.85 over the past fortnight). 7/2 taken.
Subtotal-50
23 March 2024
19:15 7:15 Wolverhampton
Buraback
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 7.00 used instead of 4.33 takenBOG
@7.00
Win
300
M Attwater’s 11% SR (A/E 0.49) with fancied runners at Wolvo makes Bear To Dream easy to oppose here. Next up BURABACK makes plenty of appeal at 10/3; the Buratino gelding bounced back to form a week ago at Southwell, finishing a 2.75l 2nd of 10 after being awkward leaving the stalls. He’s running off an unchanged mark here and a couple of notable quick-returning fancied stats (a week or less) add confidence; L Edmunds’s 46% SR (A/E 1.46) and D Shaw’s 35% SR (A/E 1.36).
15:35 3:35 Doncaster
Farhh To Shy
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Lose
-50
25/1 (6 places) for FARHH TO SHY looks fantastic value in the Lincoln. The 6yo mare has been a brilliant horse for connections with 6 wins and 4 places from 19 on turf. She’s won off a break previously, coming here at Donny over 7f, and gave respectable performances on her other two starts after absences. She won a fillies handicap on soft ground over a mile at Ascot in May last year so the ground doesn’t concern me, she’s got a positive draw to boost claims (stall 5, low is best) and the booking of B De La Sayette makes sense given he’s taken 3 of the last 4 renewals of this race. Plenty of positive stats provide more confidence; most notable being Sayette’s 25% SR (A/E 1.95) on pear-shaped courses, his 30% SR (A/E 1.94) at Doncaster and G Margarson’s 19% SR (A/E 1.83) with F Butler runners.
14:25 2:25 Doncaster
Titian
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@11.00
Lose
-50
Top FlatStats rated TITIAN looks a worthy each way play at 10/1 with 5 places. This is about as wide-open Spring Mile as they come and conditions will make it an even harder test for those returning off a break. Titian has won once and placed on a further 3 occasions from 5 starts off a break of 57+ days, he’s a course winner coming on soft so will handle conditions also. The gelding gives his running more often than not and his neck defeat under similar conditions in this race last year, off a 2lb higher mark, suggests he’ll give another solid account. J Camacho’s 26% SR (A/E 1.63) with Iffraaj progeny and 29% SR (A/E 1.46) with fancied runners when the jockey has 2 mounts adds further confidence.
Subtotal200
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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
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