CalFergie

He hasn’t really lived up to expectations but I’m giving the other MASTER (BUILDER) an each way chance at 16/1 (6 places). The son of Mastercraftsman’s runs this year have been moderate to say the least; the most notable being a 4.5l defeat on seasonal appearance at Epsom but he’s failed to place on four starts since. His mark has subsequently slipped to 89 which is just 1lb higher than his last win, coming at Haydock 14 months ago, and I think he’ll enjoy the tough conditions today given his breeding and trainer in D Menuisier who’s a genius on soft/heavy (17% SR, A/E 1.15). Probably heart over head but he’s no forlorn hope to me.

Castle Cove just has to be opposed in the November Handicap given W Haggas’s 1/15 record (A/E 0.2) with Camelot favourites and his breeder’s 12% SR (A/E 0.46) with handicap favs. Next up MASTER VINTNER makes the most appeal against; the R Beckett-trained 3yo has won on both starts since joining the yard, including on heavy ground at Goodwood when shedding his maiden. He backed that up with a comfortable novice success at Lingfield (3.75l eased) when tackling 12f for the FT so I'm fairly convinced that there’s more improvement to come on this ground, over this trip on handicap debut. 13/2 taken.

It’s the last day of the flat season so I’m going to have a couple of plays in both of the big handicaps, starting with FINE INTERVIEW at 7/1. I can’t wrap my head around Realign is favourite; yes the son of Blue Point won LTO at Haydock but that came on good to soft in a C3 and he’s now running off the same mark as a 5.25l defeat at Ascot previously and is up in class again. Evening Saigon makes appeal but again this is a couple of steps up in class and it’s no sure thing that he’ll take to the tricky ground given Blue Point’s 14% SR (A/E 0.53) with fancied runners on soft/heavy. FI is a horse we know takes to the ground, winning on his last two starts under similar conditions including over C&D LTO. The Havana Grey gelding is running off a career-high mark but we haven’t seen his ceiling yet and Wathnan Racing excel at this time of year (39% SR, A/E 1.46 when fancied).

My each way play here comes in the form of ROACH POWER at 14/1 (6 places). He’s got a difficult draw in stall 1 to overcome but is on the same side of Sophia’s Starlight who’s likely to set the fractions up the rail and has been in tremendous form this autumn; most notable being a 1.25l success in a valuable handicap at Ascot on soft ground. The son of Ribchester won on heavy at Ffos Las the time before so he clearly relishes tough conditions, M Wigham does well with his 6yo’s (22% SR, A/E 1.58), has had a superb year on the turf (23% SR, A/E 1.82) and he targets them effectively in the autumn so it’d be no shock to see him end the year with a bang.

I understand why Teumessias Fox is favourite here but he’s 0/3 so far with use of cheek pieces which aligns with King Power’s 2/23 record (A/E 0.34) on the AW. Next up THE GLEN ROVERS makes the most appeal against; the highly progressive son of Dark Angel won this race last year, adding to a 5/8 record (A/E 2.4) on the sand. He hasn’t been seen for 248 days but DA progeny fair well off a break and you’d imagine L Wadham will have their charge primed for this valuable prize. J Doyle is a notable jockey booking with an impressive 56% SR (A/E 1.68) on fancied DA progeny and Wadham brings a 50% SR (A/E 1.74) with fancied runners from Irish stallions plus 43% SR (A/E 1.69) with fancied handicappers. 9/2 taken.

My wild outsider of Saturday night comes in the form of VILLAGE VOICE at 20/1 (each way). The mare by Zarak has raced just once for C Brown; winning a Grade 3 at Belmont a month ago when flying late. This is a much tougher proposition but the trainer will have learnt plenty about the 5yo and she looked to really appreciate the rattling-fast ground LTO.

Connections may well feel disappointed that SIERRA LEONE has won just once this season but the colt is notoriously slow from the gate and has been even worse on two of his four outings. He always finishes his races well and with a solid pacemaker in Contrary Thinking he’s going to be flying late. 7/2 taken.

Minnie Hauk is the rightful favourite for the BC Turf but she’s taking up so much of the market share that an each way play can be made and AMILOC makes the most appeal at 11/1/. The 3yo trained by R Beckett has had a superb career to date; winning his first five races when comfortably going through the grades and finally losing his unbeaten record in the Irish St Leger. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day, finishing 4l 2nd of 9, on what was his first go at the distance, and you can absolutely see the return to 12f as a positive from a decent draw in stall 3.

My only play today, and first of November, comes in the form of BOLSTER at 15/2 each way. Gethin carries a top + blue FlatStats rating but Ghaiyyath’s 15% SR (A/E 0.38) with favourites coming up in class makes his son short enough in the betting, meanwhile Liberty Lane will do well to overcome a 3lb penalty. Bolster hasn’t got his head in front this season but has ran well on all five starts; the most notable being a 3.5l defeat in the Gr2 Huxley stakes on reappearance and 2.25l loss in a Gr3 at ParisLongchamp. He took this race last year on deeper ground but the son of Invincible Spirit is versatile as far as the going’s concerned, K Burke brings a 39% SR (A/E 1.33) with fancied Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum runners and the owner a 44% SR (A/E 1.78) with fancied Invincible Spirit progeny.

PANDEMONIUM looks vastly overpriced to me here at 7/1. Time To Turn can be turned away from given C Appleby’s 17% SR (A/E 0.39) on favourites over 7f at Newbury, meanwhile Wechaad has to overcome Oasis Dream’s 4% SR (A/E 0.41) at the course and 11% SR (A/E 0.38) with fancied runners in Group races. Stellar Sunrise carries a top + blue FlatStats rating however P McDonald’s 1/59 record (A/E 0.17) here at Newbury makes him easy enough to oppose and May Angel is burdened with Dark Angel’s 2% SR (A/E 0.37) with outsiders over 7f. I can’t make a case for the remaining couple but Pandemonium has took steps forward on both winning starts and is worthy of a chance at this level. The son of No Nay Never began his career at Yarmouth on soft ground, showing plenty of class to draw away by 3.75l, and backed that up with another comfortable (2.25l) success at Redcar. He has got the huge step up in class to contend with but he looks a progressive sort who should appreciate the tough conditions with the in-form J Doyle on board (33% SR, A/E 1.35 over the past fortnight).

I’m fully respecting of Telemark here but the booking of J Mitchell is a huge negative given his 10% SR (A/E 0.62) on soft/heavy going and favourites hold a terrible 10% SR (A/E 0.34) over 7f handicaps on soft ground here at Newbury. You can get bigger on the Exchanges but 13/2 with the bookies for GLENFINNAN seems decent value and I’m taking him win-only; the 5yo by Harry Angel has ran admirably all season without getting his head in front, particularly on his last couple of starts where he’s finished 3l 4th of 11 on soft ground at Sandown and 1.25l 2nd of 16 at Leopardstown on good-yielding respectively. He took a keen hold during the latter so did well to hold on for 2nd, is coming down in class (4/7, A/E 3.08), has a big stride length to help in the conditions, M Dods brings a 19% SR (A/E 1.72) at southern courses and J Watson a 30% SR (A/E 2.32) in handicaps at Newbury on soft ground.

I really think PRYDWEN is being overlooked in the feature contest at Kempton this evening. T Marquand’s 15% SR (A/E 0.35) on Rabbah Bloodstock Ltd-bred favourites makes Dramatic Star easy enough to oppose, meanwhile M Prescott’s 13% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners who ran 29 to 56 days ago suggests Synergism could lack some fitness. Duke Of Oxford could prove the fly in the ointment with his top + blue FlatStats rating, however he’s got a 116-day absence to overcome and looked to need the run when having a similar break previously. Prydwen has, by far, the best form on display and 12/1 looks huge value for his return to the AW. The gelding by Camelot has an exemplary 6/13 record (A/E 2.18) under this code and while is burdened with top weight he’s good value for it, running at listed and Group level. A drop back into handicap company at Chester LTO almost worked a charm (0.5l 2nd of 11), G Scott brings a 42% SR (A/E 1.94) for Blue Starr Racing and the owner’s 48% SR (A/E 1.98) in handicaps adds plenty of confidence.

I’ve got to have a play in the feature at Wolvo this afternoon and BROOKLYN NINE NINE could easily bounce back to form. M Appleby’s 14% SR (0.42) with favourites over C&D makes Coul Angel easy enough to oppose, meanwhile Miraculous is up in class after being a comprehensively beaten favourite at Southwell last month. Almarada Prince carries a poor FlatStats rating with a number of negative stats to boot; most notable being Prince Of Lir’s 1/58 record (A/E 0.16) with runners returning from 8 to 14 days away and I Furtado’s 4% SR (A/E 0.33) in C1-3 races on the AW. Tasleet’s 5% SR (A/E 0.46) in Autumn puts Fair Wind up against it and Prove will do well to overcome J Candlish’s 3% SR (A/E 0.34) with runners who finished 7th or worse LTO. This looks like it could go the way of a double-digit runner and of those BNN makes the most appeal; the No Nay Never gelding has had a decent enough turf campaign, notching up a win at Hamilton and a couple of places. He’s now running off his lowest ever mark on the AW which surely must make him dangerous. 12/1 (4 places) taken.

I think it’s safe to say that he’s got a big step forward to take from his listed win at Ayr LTO but ALMERIC could be anything and 14/1 looks decent each way value. You’ve got to be respecting of Ombudsman, however Night Of Thunder’s 3/21 record (A/E 0.46) with favourites at Ascot makes his son short enough, meanwhile I don’t like the form of Calandagan’s win here in the King George and he hasn’t been seen since. C Soumillon’s 4% SR (A/E 0.32) on runners carrying 9-1 to 9-3 puts Delacroix up against it and Economics, whilst carrying all the ability in the world, has a year absence to overcome. Almeric has won both his starts this season, albeit at listed level, but he’s done them in comfortable fashion and looks worth the step up to Group level. The A Balding-trained colt has been campaigned lightly, clearly with a tilt at this in mind and he actually comes out top on FlatStats ratings. K Rausing’s 32% SR (A/E 1.77) with colts is another reason for optimism.

I wouldn’t usually be dabbling in a contest such as this but CENSUS should be shorter than 5/2 so looks a value bet. Niminy Piminy carries a poor FlatStats rating so looks short enough, meanwhile Best Adventure has top weight to carry after a hugely underwhelming performance at Nottingham at the beginning of the month and is yet to prove himself an AW performer. J Goldie’s 1/31 record (A/E 0.18) with fancied runners in October puts Sea Legend up against it and Lady Chartwell holds a poor FS rating also. It’s difficult to make a case for any of the remainders so the jolly could win by default as well as on merit; the son of Persian King has raced just thrice, winning on his only start on the AW at Wolverhampton and excuses can be made for his run at HQ LTO. He didn’t settle that day so you’re hoping for a more polished display here but the Crisford’s bring a 37% SR (A/E 1.43) with fancied handicap debutants on the AW, Rabbah Racing a 63% SR (A/E 1.48) with favourites keeping to the same trip and 57% SR (A/E 1.34) with favs who are the yard’s only runner.

Coedana is the right fav here but I'm always happy to take on a filly running against the boys. Contacto will do well to overcome Sheikh Hamed Dalmook Al Maktoum’s 1/14 record (A/E 0.3) with fancied runners in C1-3 races coming up in class, meanwhile Gnomon has a lot to prove over this trip, especially on ground with some cut in it. Next up HIGH POINT makes plenty of each way appeal at 7/1; the son of New Bay is on his 3rd trainer in 2 years but things looked to really click over C&D LTO under similar conditions. He made all that day and is likely to be up with the pace but doesn’t necessarily have to lead on evidence of his win at HQ as a 2yo, which is a positive given the fractions Dino Bellagio is likely to set. The gelding us up 3lb for that win last month but wasn’t fancied that day so the market support provides confidence along with NB’s 24% SR (A/E 1.51) in handicaps on good to soft.