CalFergie

I’ve got to be siding with King’s Code here at 11/2. It’s easy to envisage Paradias going in after winning this race last year, however that was a much weaker renewal and an abysmal display off this mark NTO tempers enthusiasm. Beylerbeyi has B Loughnane’s 10% SR (A/E 0.34) on fancied runners wearing the hood to overcome, meanwhile S Bowen’s 5% SR (A/E 0.49) on runners carrying 8-13 to 9-3 puts The Glen Rovers up against it. T Heard holds a terrible 3% SR (A/E 0.46) on runners coming up in trip (1/32, A/E 0.36 when C1-3) and Assail lacks the class to be winning a race such as this IMO. You could perhaps make a speculative each way case but I’ve got to be sticking with old friend KC; the son of Saxon Warrior won LTO at Newcastle (2.5l) and now runs off his highest ever mark. I don’t think we’ve found his ceiling yet though given his improvement over the past 5 months (4W 1P from 7 from October to January) and a 2/2 record over C&D adds further confidence. Plenty of positive stats boost claims further; most notably P Evans’s 33% SR (A/E 2.1) with SW progeny.

BERKSHIRE WHISPER is the most lightly raced in this field and must be going close off this mark. I backed Pocklington LTO when he finally got his head in front, however I can’t trust him winning again off a 3lb higher mark, meanwhile the J Camacho yard are in something of a rut of late (0/13 over the past month) so Germanic is a risky proposition. Coul Angel will do well to overcome his owner’s 1/45 record (A/E 0.18) and Coulsty’s 6% SR (A/E 0.41) in winter along with M Appleby’s 9% SR (A/E 0.4) with fancied runners over 6f here at Newcastle. Ten Pounds could prove the fly in the ointment but at the prices BW makes much more appeal; the son of Dark Angel strung together a hat-trick of wins last year, two of those coming over C&D. He didn’t look quite up to C1 level on turf but returned with aplomb at Southwell in November, finishing a neck 2nd of 9. He was last seen finishing 2l 4th of 10 at Kempton when taking a keen hold, so the booking of O Murphy is a sure positive, particularly with his 38% SR (A/E 1.89) over C&D.

The booking of an unknown quantity in 7lb claimer A Redman makes this a tentative selection, but on his day TEUMESSIAS FOX is a smart operator and 12/1 with 4 places is too big to resist. Regal Ulixes is short enough given the length of absence (210 days) and Ulysses’s 12% SR (A/E 0.42) with fancied runners over 10f, meanwhile Parlando is up in class and running off his highest mark for some time. Time Loop carries a poor FlatStats rating along with T Marquand’s 2/28 record (A/E 0.35) on fancied mares and Military Academy will do well to overcome J Chapple-Hyam's 11% SR (A/E 0.4) with fancied runners over this trip. This looks set up for a double-digit runner and TF makes the most appeal to me; the 7yo gelding has proven difficult to win with but has notched up 4 wins and 3 places from 12 AW starts. The most recent success came in March last year at Kempton, running off this mark and being hampered badly 2f out. A 1.5l defeat over C&D in November looks decent form with the winner taking listed honours NTO and A Balding’s 39% SR (A/E 1.78) over C&D adds further confidence.

Popmaster can be opposed here given his 0/8 record in C2 races on the AW, most recently finishing 2.75l 3rd of 5 at Southwell just 6 days ago. MOUNT ATHOS makes the most appeal against; the son of Dark Angel is a C&D specialist (5/5) with the last win coming in March off the same mark. He’s been running in listed company in Deauville on the AW recently, giving solid displays on both occasions (2l 2nd of 15 and 3l 3rd of 15 respectively) so must surely give another good account. He carries a top + blue FlatStats rating along with a couple of positive stats to boost claims further; his owner’s 46% SR (A/E 1.39) with fancied Rabbah Bloodstock-bred runners and J Tate’s 29% SR (A/E 1.35) with geldings. 7/2 taken.

Another Run is another favourite easy enough to oppose today, mainly due to the B Millman yard form, Zoffany’s 2/27 record (A/E 0.36) with fancied 6yo’s and H Davies’s 18% SR (A/E 0.5) on gelding market leaders. Enemy has been a grand old servant for connections, but I Williams does terribly with these older horses (3% SR, A/E 0.32 with 8yo+) and he rest of the field all carry poor FlatStats ratings apart from ASSAIL. The No Nay Never gelding was never involved at Southwell LTO in November; being held up out the back and unable to make any inroads. We’ve seen on all his wins and places that he needs to be midfield at worst so I’m hoping that L Morris gets his tactics right this time and D Simcock’s 43% SR (A/E 1.67) with fancied 6yo’s boosts claims further. 7/2 taken.

My each way play here comes in the form of CABURN at 12/1 with 4 places. The J Tate-trained gelding is clearly highly thought of given he won his first couple of races, including a valuable stakes race at Newbury, then ran in the Gimcrack finishing 3.5l 5th of 10. He probably hasn’t progressed as connections would’ve liked but has still operated at a high level all through his 3yo campaign, finishing with a comfortable 3l success at Yarmouth in September. This is the son of Twilight Son’s first go on the AW which I see as a positive, especially as this is just his 3rd run for J Tate and the yard are in fine form (3/6, A/E 2.22 over the past fortnight). His 30% SR (A/E 1.36) with geldings is another reason for optimism that the trainer will eek more out of this 4yo.