CalFergie
Predominantly stick to C1-3 races on the flat. Use stats and systems alongside form to find selections. Some tips are based on market support so follow my Twitter handle for updates - @CalFergie
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this month
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CalFergie's Tips History
28 August 2025
20:45 8:45 Southwell
Paddys Day
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@12.00
Lose
-50
Against The Wind can be opposed here given Earthlight’s 14% SR (A/E 0.48) with fancied runners on the AW (2/10, A/E 0.46 when favourite). Tan Rapido makes appeal returning to this surface, however he’s running off a career-high mark and a 3/4l success at Chelmsford off a 4lb lower one doesn’t add much confidence. Cannon’s House carries a poor FlatStats rating plus M Easterby’s 10% SR (A/E 0.36) with fancied runners over 5f at Southwell puts a line through that one, meanwhile Northern Spirit will do well to overcome B Ellison’s 1/22 record (A/E 0.2) with fancied runners over the minimum trip and Adaay’s 3% SR (A/E 0.38) at Southwell. This looks more of an each way kind of contest to me and PADDY’S DAY is an old friend of mine who I can side with again at 12/1 (4 places). The 5yo is so much more suited to the AW (39% SR, A/E 2.15) than he is the turf (1/24, A/E 0.4) so I’m ignoring his last couple of runs at Ascot and Goodwood respectively. He’s just 2lb higher than a nose success at Newcastle in June and A Jary’s 17% SR (A/E 1.75) over 5f adds further confidence.
19:45 7:45 Southwell
Indalo
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@5.50
Win
225
I think INDALO is worth shot at 9/2 here. T Ward holds a pretty poor record with fancied middle-distance runners (9% SR, A/E 0.37) which puts me off Transparent, meanwhile Jimmy Speaking carries a damning FlatStats rating with C Dwyer’s awful 1/38 record (A/E 0.18) in August adding even less confidence. Gloriously Sassy should improve for the return to the AW, but I think he’s a bit too much of a risk, and the same can be said for Mysteryofthesands who’s trying the Tapeta for the FT. You could perhaps go for an each way play here but I struggled to find one so the jolly looks appealing. The son of Phoenix Of Spain has barely put a hoof wrong on all 8 starts to date; notching up 2 wins on the AW, 1 on the turf a couple of starts back, and a place to boot. He’s running off an unchanged mark after a 2.75l defeat at Goodwood earlier this month but I think he’s more suited to the artificial surfaces and POS’s 9/12 record (A/E 1.7) with favourites hailing from Newmarket boosts claims further.
Subtotal175
25 August 2025
15:50 3:50 Ripon
Silent Age
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.75
Win
137
SILENT AGE has come in for support and I’m willing to wade in at 11/4. Capital Guarantee is coming up a couple of classes after a neck success over C&D LTO so you couldn’t be bullish on his chances, meanwhile Leadenhall is running off his highest-ever mark and hasn’t yet proven that he’s up to this level. Barley is 1/20 (A/E 0.56) in C1-3 races and looks difficult to get his head in front, while Rogue Encore will do well to overcome his owner’s 5% SR (A/E 0.35) with runners coming up in class. I struggle to make a case for the remainder so SA could just win by default as well as on merit here; the Dubawi gelding is a really consistent sort who’s won twice so far this season and only lost out by 1l at Windsor earlier this month. Running off an unchanged mark, this 4yo carries a top + blue FlatStats rating alongside Dubawi’s 48% SR (A/E 1.5) with fancied French-born runners adding further confidence.
15:15 3:15 Ripon
Amorim
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.75
Lose
-50
Al Shaham has to be opposed here given H Davies’ 17% SR (A/E 0.47) on favourites carrying 9-4 to 9-6 and Blue Point’s 1/8 record (A/E 0.33) with favs on tight courses. Next up AMORIM makes the most appeal against; the colt by Havana Grey is clearly highly thought of, being tried at C2 level on debut and last seen running in a listed contest at Newbury. A win at Windsor splits those two runs, albeit at a much lower grade, and that 3rd in the Rose Bowl Stakes in July could prove to be a good bit of form with winner Wise Approach losing by 3/4l in the Prix Morny yesterday and Rock On Thunder coming 1l 2nd in the Gimcrack on Friday. HG brings a superb 52% SR (A/E 1.75) with fancied runners at Ripon and Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum an even better 67% SR (A/E 1.6) with fancied runners at the course. 11/4 taken.
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15:03 3:03 Chepstow
Johnjay
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@10.00
Lose
-50
9/1 (5 places) for JOHNJAY looks a decent bet here. Ajrad is difficult to take on, but Onslow Gardens’ has to overcome Footstepsinthesand’s 10% SR (A/E 0.49) with fancied runners carrying 3lb claimers and K Frost’s 4% SR (A/E 0.45) with 5yo’s. Spirit Of The Bay has been supported, and I could make a case for the mare, however she’s 0/10 in C1-3 so doesn’t look up to this level and Diddy Man carries a damning FlatStats rating. You’re now into the double digit runners and JJ makes the most appeal; the R Teal-trained son of Sixties Icon is 0/11 when running at or above his current mark, but he has placed on 4 of those occasions including a 3/4l defeat over 7f here at Chepstow a month ago. He was running on well enough that day to suggest the return to a mile will suit and that’s backed up with a win over this trip a few stats back. A handful of positive stats boost claims further; most notable being Teal’s 15% SR (A/E 1.41) in C1-3 races and C Hutchinson’s 12% SR (A/E 1.37) with sole trainer runners that day.
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Subtotal37
22 August 2025
18:35 6:35 Hamilton
Beylerbeyi
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.00
Lose
-50
6/1 is far too big here for BEYLERBEYI. Defiance is a ridiculous price given he’s placed just once from 6 starts since a debut win at Sandown and Camelot is yet to have a winner at Hamilton in 32 starts. Paddy The Squire has come in for plenty of support but the I Jardine team have had just 1 winner from 26 (A/E 0.39) over the past fortnight so you can’t be confident on his chances. The I Williams yard, on the other hand, are in fine form (17% SR, A/E 1.3) and don’t send many up to Scotland. This son of Invincible Spirit is looking for his fourth win on the bounce; the most impressive of those being a 4.25l success at Newmarket and he was probably more value than the 3/4l win at Chepstow LTO in the Racing League suggests. He’s up 6lb in the handicap but must have more to come, La Pulga looks to set strong enough fractions for a closer and WIlliams’ 35% SR (A/E 1.96) for his owners provides further confidence.
Subtotal-50
21 August 2025
20:45 8:45 Newcastle
Storm Free
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
Tuco Salamanca has to be taken on here given Belardo’s 16% SR (A/E 0.45) with favourites in 3yo+ races and O Sangster’s 5% SR (A/E 0.34) in summer. Arctic Thunder will do well to overcome E Walker’s 13% SR (A/E 0.47) with fancied runners on straight tracks and W Carver’s 6% SR (A/E 0.24) on fancied runners carrying 9-7+, but STORM FREE carries a lofty top + blue FlatStats rating and can be taken at 11/2. The son of Iffraaj started his 3yo campaign with a success at Nottingham LTO and you’d fully expect him to build on that performance now returning to the AW where he’s placed 2nd on both starts. His opening mark doesn’t look too difficult a task, J Tate fares well with handicap debutants and a couple of positive fancied stats for S Kirrane boost claims further; a 38% SR (A/E 1.77) with LTO winners and 32% SR (A/E 1.51) on galloping courses.
20:15 8:15 Newcastle
Tremolo
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@6.50
Lose
-50
TREMOLO is my strongest bet of the day at 5/1. The son of Bated Breath has been progressing nicely on the AW; coming 1.5l 3rd of 11 on debut at Southwell before comfortably winning at the same venue a couple of months later. He hasn’t been seen to best effect on turf as of yet but returned to winning ways at Kempton in May and backed that up with another success at Southwell when upped to a mile. He’s only up 3lb for that win so should be competitive and BB’s huge 65% SR (A/E 1.53) with favourites hailing from the South adds further confidence.
19:15 7:15 Newcastle
Al Shabab Storm
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
12/1 (4 places) for AL SHABAB STORM looks huge value to me. The Advertise gelding has ran well in defeat on his two starts on the AW so far this year; finishing 3/4l 3rd of 7 at Wolvo and 1/2l 3rd of 12 at the same venue last month. He’s running off a career-high mark but has shown to be a class operator on his day so you can’t be discounting him and Advertise’s 19% SR (A/E 1.51) on triangle-shaped courses is another reason for optimism.
18:15 6:15 Newcastle
Circus Of Rome
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@6.50
Win
275
Gran Descans is easy enough to oppose here given his poor FlatStats rating and H Charlton’s 27% SR (A/E 0.47) with Juddmonte-owned favourites. Ivatt could prove the fly in the ointment but I really fancy the chances of CIRCUS OF ROME at 11/2; the R Hughes team bagged this race last year and their son of Circus Maximus won LTO at Newbury. He’s already shown that he’s effective on the AW with a win at Wolvo and couple of 2nd's under his belt and F Marsh is a positive booking with a 23% SR (A/E 1.49) in August on the AW.
Subtotal125
20 August 2025
16:10 4:10 York
Alphonse Le Grande
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.50
Lose
-50
He’s been supported well but 7/2 makes plenty of appeal for ALPHONSE LE GRANDE. Santorini Star needs to overcome her owner’s poor 2/14 record (A/E 0.35) at Northern courses, meanwhile Dancing In Paris consistently hits the crossbar at this level (1W 7P from 13, A/E 0.41) which aligns with Olympic Glory’s 2/50 (A/E 0.29) in C1-3 races. Terrorise carries plenty of negatives with a poor FlatStats rating to boot and while Fireblade makes plenty of appeal I think it safer to stick with ALG. He’s pretty flexible as far as tactics go but I’d like to see W Buick close to the pace given there’s a few in here that’ll likely set decent fractions. The son of Sea The Stars won the Cesarewitch last year in controversial circumstances and looks to be operating off a dangerous mark given a 3l defeat in the Ascot Stakes in June. Buick’s 43% SR (A/E 1.25) on favourites who finished 7th or worse LTO and STS’s 26% SR (A/E 1.42) with runners wearing a tongue strap adds plenty of confidence.
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13:50 1:50 York
Spring Is Sprung
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@13.00
Lose
-50
SPRING IS SPRUNG looks vastly overpriced for me at 12/1 with 5 places on offer. The son of Oasis Dream is in search of a four timer after successes at Newmarket, Chelmsford and Haydock respectively, and is clearly worth a chance back at this level given his form. His last run at C2 came off the same mark back in 2023 here over 5f at York; he finished 1.25l 4th of 14 and outran huge odds of 33/1 so he must be going close now more fancied in the market. The P Midgley-trained 6yo has a 33% SR (A/E 1.86) on good to firm ground, a 56% SR (A/E 2.29) when fancied, J Hart brings a 2/5 record (A/E 4.36) over C&D, a 23% SR (A/E 1.41) for the yard this season and Oasis Dream holds a superb 41% SR (A/E 1.58) with fancied French-born runners.
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Subtotal-100
31 July 2025
19:15 7:15 Wolverhampton
Change Sings
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.50
Lose
-50
5/2 for CHANGE SINGS looks more than reasonable this evening. Barbapapa has to overcome K O’Neill’s 10% SR (A/E 0.49) on fancied runners in the summer, meanwhile Stormy Impact carries a poor FlatStats rating with the booking of W Fentiman bringing a deluge of negative stats. There’s money around for Willem Twee, however his owner holds a poor 2/51 record (A/E 0.3) when the trainer has just one runner that day and Ribchester’s 11% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied runners returning from 57+ days away tempers enthusiasm further. You’re then getting into the each way plays and I don’t think any of them are solid enough to be taking the chance so CS could win by default as well as on merit. The son of Saxon Warrior has been running well all year without getting his head in front and has been in some deeper contests than this. The step down to 5f on his last couple of starts looked a bit too sharp for the 5yo so the return to 6f at a venue he’s already won at provide plenty of promise.
Subtotal-50
30 July 2025
16:55 4:55 Goodwood
Crimson Spirit
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
CRIMSON SPIRIT looks overpriced to me here at 12/1 (5 places). The son of Harry Angel is in search of a fourth consecutive win after successes in C4 company, and while this is a step up in class I don’t think a mark of 89 is his ceiling. He’s 4/8 over 7f so this trip is clearly his bag, R Kingscote will be flying high from his Gr1 win on Qirat earlier on and he gets to keep his partnership intact with CS (rode him on his last few starts). The Kubler’s 25% SR (A/E 1.43) with handicappers on stiff courses adds further confidence.
14:30 2:30 Goodwood
Military Code
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.50
Lose
-50
Lady Iman has to be opposed here given her poor FlatStats rating and G Lyon's awful record over in the UK (2/62, A/E 0.25). Next up MILITARY CODY makes plenty of appeal against at 7/2; the son of Wootton Bassett has won twice and finished 2nd LTO in a listed contest so is clearly worth a chance back at Gr3 level. W Buick's 47% SR (A/E 1.59) on fancied C Appleby runners at Goodwood and the trainers's 41% SR (A/E 1.34) with fancied runners over the minimum trip adds further confidence.
13:20 1:20 Goodwood
Jupiter Ammon
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@SP
Lose
-50
9/1 for JUPITER AMMON makes plenty of appeal. New Bay brings a 25% SR (A/E 1.33) with colts and this unexposed som of his could improve ten fold.
Subtotal-150
29 July 2025
15:45 3:45 Goodwood
Shagraan
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@8.50
Lose
-50
Redorange has to be taken on here given Mehmas’s 14% SR (A/E 0.41) with favourites wearing the tongue strap and Almohamediya Racing’s 11% SR (A/E 0.36) with favs in handicaps. Adrestia does make appeal with the return to handicapping, however the filly is running off a 8lb higher mark than a 1l success at Ascot last month and think that’ll stop her. SHAGRAAN interests me the most and 15/2 with 6 places on offer can be taken. The M Appleby-trained gelding has been running well this season without getting his head in front; he returned with a 1/2l defeat to Rosario at this C&D in May, finished 2l 4th of 17 at York NTO, followed by a 1.25l 3rd of 8 ay Haydock. His run at Sandown in the Gr3 Coral Charge looked decent enough, finishing 3l 3rd of 11, so you’ve got to fancy his chances now returning to handicapping and his owner’s 28% SR (A/E 1.66) with runners over the minimum trip adds further confidence.
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Subtotal-50
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