CalFergie

As the market suggests, HIDDEN FORCE should take all the beating here. Venetian Prince has his owner’s 1/42 record (A/E 0.21) with middle distance runners at Kempton to overcome, meanwhile Utmost Good Faith is burdened by a deluge of negatives; most notable being Starspangledbanner’s 1% SR (A/E 0.16) with outsiders over MD’s and G Boughey’s 1% SR (A/E 0.3) with unfancied runners on polytrack. Tadej, whilst being a Group 3 winner with an OR of 105, carries a poor FlatStats rating with plenty of negs including Ardad’s general 1% SR (A/E 0.28) with outsiders so the odds-on jolly looks obvious. The son of Frankel won comfortably on debut at Kempton in December (1.75l) with the 2nd coming runner-up again NTO in a C2 novice and the 4th winning a similar contest at Lingfield last month. Given his powerful connections and yard you’d expect further improvement today and the extra furlong is likely to aid the 3yo’s cause. Godolphin’s 63% SR (A/E 1.3) with Frankel favs and W Buick’s 73% SR (A/E 1.36) with C Appleby favourites over a mile at Kempton provides further confidence; this is boosted to an 86% SR (A/E 1.71) when looked at C1-3 races.

You can get 3 places with some firms here and that makes TIGER CRUSADE an appealing play at 12/1. Benevento is the rightful fav on turf form, however I’m not convinced he’ll take to the surface given Wootton Bassett’s 9% SR (A/E 0.56) with AW debutants who’ve ran on grass before. Heathcliff I can’t be with on this occasion considering his OR (0/7 when at or above 91) and the W Haggas yard form (1/15, A/E 0.38 over the past month) puts me off Wiltshire completely. Legal Reform and Best Rate carry poor FlatStats rating plus the former is burdened by M Herrington’s poor record at southern courses (6% SR, A/E 0.47), meanwhile BR has Camacho’s 2% SR (A/E 0.41) with outsiders carrying up to 8-11 to contend with. All-in-all there could be an upset on the cards and TC looks the most likely; the son of No Nay Never wasn’t seen to best effect over 6f at Kempton 3 days ago but won over C&D a few weeks back. Back up to 7f at a course he’s won twice and gone close on the three other starts he must be going close.

INTERVENTION looks a huge price in the feature at Kempton this evening at 28/1 (each way). J Chapple-Hyam's 2/14 record (A/E 0.43) with 5yo favourites on the AW makes El Bodon far too short, meanwhile Hello Youmzain produces sub-par geldings (8% SR, A/E 0.36) plus Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum’s 1/26 record (A/E 0.2) makes Kullazain hard to side with. Stratusnine has a tricky draw to overcome (9) and We Never Stop needs to overcom K Ryan’s 7% SR (A/E 0.46) on Wednesdays so it looks set up for a nicely priced winner. The M Appleby-trained Intervention hasn’t been seen to best effect on his past few starts but did win at Lingfield in December. He’s only ran a bad race here at Kempton once; with 6 places and a 2.5l 6th of 12 from the other 7 starts, three of the last four coming off higher marks. The Horse Watchers are shrewd operators so I’d like to see some support before the off but there are plenty of positive stats to boost claims; most notable being H Davies’ 24% SR (A/E 1.73) when riding for Appleby and Swiss Spirit’s 15% SR (A/E 2.59) with unfancied geldings in C1-3 handicaps.

Talis Evolvere can be opposed here given the booking of A Voikhansky and his 1/33 record (A/E 0.2) on runners who finished 2nd LTO. Doctor Khan Junior is an old friend of mine however P McDonald’s 8% SR (A/E 0.41) on fancied 7yo’s puts me off him, meanwhile E Greatrex’s 4% SR (A/E 0.41) on runners carrying up to 8-11 makes Down To The Kid hard to side with. Flag Of St George has come in for support but carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside U S Navy Flag’s 4% SR (A/E 0.25) in 4yo+ races on the AW and Eldrickjones has a deluge of negatives for W Fentiman to overcome. I can’t make a case for the outsiders but LEGAL REFORM can go close here based on a 1.25l success at Wolvo on Boxing Day and 9/1 looks fair (each way). I always pay close attention to C Rodriguez’s rides in C1-3 races on the AW, especially when they’ve had 3+ good runs previously (23% SR, A/E 1.63) and the owners bring a number of positives also; most notably a 29% SR (A/E 1.72) with runners keeping to the same trip and 26% SR (A/E 2.03) with sprint handicappers.