CalFergie

I really think that IWANTMYTIMEWITHYOU is overpriced here at 10/1 with 4 places. Francesco Baracca can be opposed given E Johnson Houghton’s 15% SR (A/E 0.46) with favourites at Bath, meanwhile Postponed’s 14 SR (A/E 0.48) with fancied runners carrying 9-1 to 9-3 makes Skimming Along hard to side with. The G Moore yard are in awful form (3% SR, A/E 0.27 over the past month) so you can’t be trusting of Bohemian Breeze and N Mullholland’s 2% SR (A/E 0.35) in 3yo+ races puts Man Of The Sea up against it. This looks the way of an each way runner and of those IWMTWY hasn’t yet been tried at this level and is up against a weak field. The son of Time Test has been on the go all season, notching up a couple of wins including one over C&D in July. He probably hasn’t been ridden particularly conservatively on his last couple of starts so I’m hoping that 5lb claimer M Paetel can settle the gelding and a handful of postive stats boost claims further; most notable being owner C Smith’s general 24% SR (A/E 1.91) and TT’s 18% SR (A/E 1.62) with runners carrying 8-12 to 9-0.

I can’t be having Indian Springs here; young B Loughnane just isn’t effective on ground with some cut in it (as shown on a couple of occasions yesterday). Back In Black will do well to overcome D Muscutt’s 10% SR (A/E 0.49) with fancied runners in C1-3 races, meanwhile Defence Minister carries a poor FlatStats rating. Zoustar’s 3% SR (A/E 0.3) with runners carrying 8-12 to 9-0 puts Sarab Star up against it, however PIETRO won in comfortable fashion (1l) when upped to this level for the FT at Brighton LTO and can be chanced again at 11/1 (5 places). The bottom-weight has shown he’s adaptable as far as ground conditions go and has a top jockey booked for today in S Osbourne who’s operating at a 20% SR (A/E 1.63) over the past month. Sands Of Mali’s 38% SR (A/E 1.5) with fancied runners wearing no headgear add further reason for optimism.

I’ve got to be siding again with old friend BOTANICAL here at 3/1. Sovereign Sea will do well to overcome R Dawson’s 6% SR (A/E 0.43) over 10f, meanwhile Regalian’s owner brings a poor 10% SR (A/E 0.48) with geldings. Sportingsilvermine has come in for support but has got it all to do off this sort of mark and it’s difficult to make a case for the remainder. Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum’s 58% SR (A/E 1.38) with Lope De Vega favourites and 53% SR (A/E 1.3) with favs carrying 9-7+ provides plenty of confidence for a runner who appreciates ground with some cut in it.

Nova Centauri has come in for support on the Exchanges this morning to oust Del Maro from market leadership, however the Gosden’s 2/11 record (A/E 0.36) with favourites in stakes races over a mile here at Doncaster makes their charge easy to oppose. DM, a colt by Camelot, did plenty wrong on debut at Newmarket last month and didn’t get the gaps when required to win his race but still finished with a flourish (1/2l 2nd of 5). He’s bound to come on given his connections and breeding and the booking of B Loughnane is a positive given his impressive 67% SR (A/E 1.57) when riding for C Appleby/Godolphin. 13/8 taken.

I’m taking on Air Force One again here given he had no excuses LTO at York and the ground is a question mark. Next up ADDISON GREY makes plenty of appeal though at 13/2; the colt for Opulence Thoroughbreds was hugely underwhelming on seasonal appearance here at Doncaster over 5.5f back in April but was then given a few months off. He returned with aplomb at Salisbury, going off 1/11f and winning like one (17l eased down) and was in no way disgraced at Chepstow NTO when losing by 3/4l. The son of Havana Grey returned to winning ways at Newmarket LTO, showing great tenacity and determination to fight back once headed, winning by 3/4l, and is clearly worth a chance up in class today. C Cox’s 34% SR (A/E 1.27) with fancied sole runners that day and 30% SR (A/E 1.29) with fancied runners in September are reasons to be positive.

I’m going to have a wild old swing in the opener on St Leger Day with ATLANTIC GAMBLE at 16/1 (4 places). The son of Lightning Spear has started to put things together on his last couple of starts, being beaten by 1.25l on both, albeit in C4 company but he’ll be primed for this off a small break. The ground won’t be a concern, especially with the booking of M Ghiani, and a few stats boost claims further; LS’s 25% SR (A/E 1.91) on straight tracks, his same SR (A/E 1.49) with runners keeping to the same trip and Ghiani’s 20% SR (A/E 1.38) on 4yo’s.

It’s incredibly hard to look past the Godolphin jolly here, particularly given C Appleby’s 52% SR with 2yo favourites this season, and McMurray looks equally as solid, but as for the rest the battle for 3rd place surely must go the way of LAUREATE CROWN at 6/1 each way. The son of Victor Ludorum made winning start to his career at Ascot (1/2l) in a C2 novice before being chanced at Group 2 level at Goodwood and never being involved. He was dropped into slightly lesser company at Deauville LTO (Gr2) but again was never involved so it makes plenty of sense to ease the colt right down into nursery company to regain some confidence. The 2yo clearly holds ability and is another O Murphy + H Palmer combination today I fancy the chances of.

Jel Pepper can be opposed here given F Marsh’s 13% SR (A/E 0.28) on 2yo favourites, as can Brussels due to A O’Brien’s 11% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied runners carrying 9-4 to 9-6. Calendar Girl will do well to overcome Advertise’s 7% SR (A/E 0.45) with runners hailing from Lambourn, meanwhile Sergei Prokofiev’s 10% SR (A/E 0.41) with fancied runners up north puts me off Song Of The Clyde. This 2yo stakes’ looks an each way kind of race and of the rest MR SEAGULL is an unexposed sort who can improve from his winning debut at Pontefract and 1.25l 2nd of 11 at Kempton LTO. H Palmer is having a fantastic season with his juveniles (22% SR, A/E 1.24), particularly the colts (27% SR, A/E 1.33) and this son of Space Blues is an appealing price at 14/1 (4 places). O Murphy’s 31% SR (A/E 1.43) when riding Palmer’s 2yo’s is another reason for optimism.

DANGER BAY looks to have so much going for him here at head of the market and 5/2 looks decent value. Gunship carries a poor FlatStats rating with a few negative stats to boot; most notable being J Ferguson’s 5% SR (A/E 0.47) with runners who finished 7th or worse LTO. Dante’s Lad you’d have to take on faith that he’s 100% sound after being pulled up at Goodwood in July, meanwhile Per Contra needs to overcome D Allan’s 3% SR (A/E 0.34) over this trip and T Easterby’s same SR (A/E 0.38) over 10.5f at York. You could perhaps chance an each way price but DB is on an upward trajectory and can make it three wins on the bounce here. The son of New Bay shed his maiden tag at Hamilton in June before being upped to C3 company over the same C&D and winning with head in chest. He should take to this trip, he’s got a top + blue FS rating with a number of positive favourite stats boosting claims further; most notably C Rodriguez’s 55% SR (A/E 1.67) on sole E Bethell runners that day and NB’s 57% SR (A/E 1.52) in September.

You’re taking it on faith that RIBBLE VIBE will improve for the step up to 2 miles but at 12/1 he makes an appealing each way play in a sketchy handicap. C Johnston holds a truly awful record at York (4/120, A/E 0.36) so I’m not sure why people are latching onto Artisan Dancer, meanwhile Fireblade is running off an unchanged mark after a poor display over C&D last month. Umbria and Diamond Bay carry poor FlatStats ratings with the former burdened by a number of negative stats to boot; most notable being K Shoemark’s 12% SR (A/E 0.45) on fancied E Walker runners and the trainer’s 8% SR (A/E 0.32) on Sundays. It’s difficult to make a case for the remainder but RV is untried over this marathon trip and I like the angle of this being M Winn’s only ride today. He’s got a solid 9% SR (A/E 1.81) on outsiders in 3yo+ races and D O’Meara an impressive 29% SR (A/E 1.9) with Godolphin-bred runners. A shot in the dark but a shot nonetheless.

He’s let me down on numerous occasions, but I can’t escape VANTHEMAN as an each way play here at 7/1 with 4 places on offer. Air Force One has been backed into favouritism, however P McDonald’s 10% SR (A/E 0.42) on fancied Australian-sired runners suggests he’s little value now and VTM could bounce back to form running off a 2lb lower mark than his last winning one. It’s hard to make excuses for his run over C&D LTO other than that perhaps he hadn’t adapted to the use of cheekpieces (FT) so I’m hoping that their 2nd use today brings about improvement. A number of positive fancied stats for Invincible Army boost claims further; a 42% SR (A/E 1.66) in Autumn and 39% SR (A/E 1.58) on flat + straight tracks being the pick.

My only play at Haydock this afternoon comes in the form of ARCTIC THUNDER at 3/1. Ata Rangi needs to overcome K Shoemark’s 3/40 record (A/E 0.28) on fancied E Walker runners, meanwhile Sixtygeesbaby carries a poor FlatStats rating. You could perhaps look for an each way angle in here but AT has been well supported and this looks a perfect opportunity to get his head in front for the third time. The gelding by Night Of Thunder had excuses at Newcastle last month and is running off a 3lb lower mark than a 2l defeat at York previously. He likes to be plonked out the rear and there looks to be enough pace on for him to surge through late on today. NOT’s 5/9 record (A/E 1.47) with favourites over C&D adds even further confidence.

He’s been on the drift slightly this morning but that makes BALMACARA an appealing each way price at 15/2 here (5 places). High Degree carries a poor FlatStats rating and his owner’s 22% SR (A/E 0.59) with favourites on soft puts him up against it, meanwhile C Grassick’s 10% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners on Fridays makes Ebt’s Guard hard to back. Advertise’s 5% SR (A/E 0.47) at southern courses is damning for Shout and Accentuate will do well to overcome Sea The Moon’s 11% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners on triangle-shaped courses. Balmacara gave a decent enough display at Sandown LTO, finishing 3.75l 3rd of 5 when racing too freely. That came in a small field but he’ll be able to get plenty of cover today (17 runners), he’s shown he appreciates cut in the ground, E Johnson Houghton brings a 30% SR (A/E 1.32) with fancied runners in September and New Bay holds a deluge of positive fancied stats; most notable being a 38% SR (A/E 1.41) in September and 30% SR (A/E 1.73) at Ascot.

I have to be taking on Division here given Wathnan’s 17% SR (A/E 0.46) with W Haggas-trained fancied runners. Next up ALAMINOS makes the most appeal against with his top + blue FlatStats rating and Pinatubo’s 43% SR (A/E 1.46) with fancied runners carrying 9-4+. The colt by Pinatubo was hugely impressive on debut at Thirsk last month; winning going away at the line so it makes sense for connections to keep him to this trip with the penalty.

Pietro is all the rage here but I can’t be having him given Sands Of Mali’s 12% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied 3yo’s (2/11, A/E 0.48 when favourite). Next up TEA SEA makes the most appeal against; the gelding by Hunter’s Light was a LTO winner here at Brighton over 7f and has been incredibly consistent since a success at Wolvo in December. This is his first go at the higher levels but is clearly worth the gamble with his form, W Carson is a positive booking given his form over the past fortnight (27% SR, A/E 2.81) and Hunter’s Light brings a deluge of positive fancied stats; most notable being a 50% SR (A/E 2.11) with sprinters, 40% SR (A/E 1.64) with handicappers and 55% SR (A/E 2.22) when you add those two together. 11/2 taken.

Against The Wind can be opposed here given Earthlight’s 14% SR (A/E 0.48) with fancied runners on the AW (2/10, A/E 0.46 when favourite). Tan Rapido makes appeal returning to this surface, however he’s running off a career-high mark and a 3/4l success at Chelmsford off a 4lb lower one doesn’t add much confidence. Cannon’s House carries a poor FlatStats rating plus M Easterby’s 10% SR (A/E 0.36) with fancied runners over 5f at Southwell puts a line through that one, meanwhile Northern Spirit will do well to overcome B Ellison’s 1/22 record (A/E 0.2) with fancied runners over the minimum trip and Adaay’s 3% SR (A/E 0.38) at Southwell. This looks more of an each way kind of contest to me and PADDY’S DAY is an old friend of mine who I can side with again at 12/1 (4 places). The 5yo is so much more suited to the AW (39% SR, A/E 2.15) than he is the turf (1/24, A/E 0.4) so I’m ignoring his last couple of runs at Ascot and Goodwood respectively. He’s just 2lb higher than a nose success at Newcastle in June and A Jary’s 17% SR (A/E 1.75) over 5f adds further confidence.

Al Shaham has to be opposed here given H Davies’ 17% SR (A/E 0.47) on favourites carrying 9-4 to 9-6 and Blue Point’s 1/8 record (A/E 0.33) with favs on tight courses. Next up AMORIM makes the most appeal against; the colt by Havana Grey is clearly highly thought of, being tried at C2 level on debut and last seen running in a listed contest at Newbury. A win at Windsor splits those two runs, albeit at a much lower grade, and that 3rd in the Rose Bowl Stakes in July could prove to be a good bit of form with winner Wise Approach losing by 3/4l in the Prix Morny yesterday and Rock On Thunder coming 1l 2nd in the Gimcrack on Friday. HG brings a superb 52% SR (A/E 1.75) with fancied runners at Ripon and Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum an even better 67% SR (A/E 1.6) with fancied runners at the course. 11/4 taken.

9/1 (5 places) for JOHNJAY looks a decent bet here. Ajrad is difficult to take on, but Onslow Gardens’ has to overcome Footstepsinthesand’s 10% SR (A/E 0.49) with fancied runners carrying 3lb claimers and K Frost’s 4% SR (A/E 0.45) with 5yo’s. Spirit Of The Bay has been supported, and I could make a case for the mare, however she’s 0/10 in C1-3 so doesn’t look up to this level and Diddy Man carries a damning FlatStats rating. You’re now into the double digit runners and JJ makes the most appeal; the R Teal-trained son of Sixties Icon is 0/11 when running at or above his current mark, but he has placed on 4 of those occasions including a 3/4l defeat over 7f here at Chepstow a month ago. He was running on well enough that day to suggest the return to a mile will suit and that’s backed up with a win over this trip a few stats back. A handful of positive stats boost claims further; most notable being Teal’s 15% SR (A/E 1.41) in C1-3 races and C Hutchinson’s 12% SR (A/E 1.37) with sole trainer runners that day.

6/1 is far too big here for BEYLERBEYI. Defiance is a ridiculous price given he’s placed just once from 6 starts since a debut win at Sandown and Camelot is yet to have a winner at Hamilton in 32 starts. Paddy The Squire has come in for plenty of support but the I Jardine team have had just 1 winner from 26 (A/E 0.39) over the past fortnight so you can’t be confident on his chances. The I Williams yard, on the other hand, are in fine form (17% SR, A/E 1.3) and don’t send many up to Scotland. This son of Invincible Spirit is looking for his fourth win on the bounce; the most impressive of those being a 4.25l success at Newmarket and he was probably more value than the 3/4l win at Chepstow LTO in the Racing League suggests. He’s up 6lb in the handicap but must have more to come, La Pulga looks to set strong enough fractions for a closer and WIlliams’ 35% SR (A/E 1.96) for his owners provides further confidence.

Tuco Salamanca has to be taken on here given Belardo’s 16% SR (A/E 0.45) with favourites in 3yo+ races and O Sangster’s 5% SR (A/E 0.34) in summer. Arctic Thunder will do well to overcome E Walker’s 13% SR (A/E 0.47) with fancied runners on straight tracks and W Carver’s 6% SR (A/E 0.24) on fancied runners carrying 9-7+, but STORM FREE carries a lofty top + blue FlatStats rating and can be taken at 11/2. The son of Iffraaj started his 3yo campaign with a success at Nottingham LTO and you’d fully expect him to build on that performance now returning to the AW where he’s placed 2nd on both starts. His opening mark doesn’t look too difficult a task, J Tate fares well with handicap debutants and a couple of positive fancied stats for S Kirrane boost claims further; a 38% SR (A/E 1.77) with LTO winners and 32% SR (A/E 1.51) on galloping courses.

TREMOLO is my strongest bet of the day at 5/1. The son of Bated Breath has been progressing nicely on the AW; coming 1.5l 3rd of 11 on debut at Southwell before comfortably winning at the same venue a couple of months later. He hasn’t been seen to best effect on turf as of yet but returned to winning ways at Kempton in May and backed that up with another success at Southwell when upped to a mile. He’s only up 3lb for that win so should be competitive and BB’s huge 65% SR (A/E 1.53) with favourites hailing from the South adds further confidence.

12/1 (4 places) for AL SHABAB STORM looks huge value to me. The Advertise gelding has ran well in defeat on his two starts on the AW so far this year; finishing 3/4l 3rd of 7 at Wolvo and 1/2l 3rd of 12 at the same venue last month. He’s running off a career-high mark but has shown to be a class operator on his day so you can’t be discounting him and Advertise’s 19% SR (A/E 1.51) on triangle-shaped courses is another reason for optimism.

He’s been supported well but 7/2 makes plenty of appeal for ALPHONSE LE GRANDE. Santorini Star needs to overcome her owner’s poor 2/14 record (A/E 0.35) at Northern courses, meanwhile Dancing In Paris consistently hits the crossbar at this level (1W 7P from 13, A/E 0.41) which aligns with Olympic Glory’s 2/50 (A/E 0.29) in C1-3 races. Terrorise carries plenty of negatives with a poor FlatStats rating to boot and while Fireblade makes plenty of appeal I think it safer to stick with ALG. He’s pretty flexible as far as tactics go but I’d like to see W Buick close to the pace given there’s a few in here that’ll likely set decent fractions. The son of Sea The Stars won the Cesarewitch last year in controversial circumstances and looks to be operating off a dangerous mark given a 3l defeat in the Ascot Stakes in June. Buick’s 43% SR (A/E 1.25) on favourites who finished 7th or worse LTO and STS’s 26% SR (A/E 1.42) with runners wearing a tongue strap adds plenty of confidence.

SPRING IS SPRUNG looks vastly overpriced for me at 12/1 with 5 places on offer. The son of Oasis Dream is in search of a four timer after successes at Newmarket, Chelmsford and Haydock respectively, and is clearly worth a chance back at this level given his form. His last run at C2 came off the same mark back in 2023 here over 5f at York; he finished 1.25l 4th of 14 and outran huge odds of 33/1 so he must be going close now more fancied in the market. The P Midgley-trained 6yo has a 33% SR (A/E 1.86) on good to firm ground, a 56% SR (A/E 2.29) when fancied, J Hart brings a 2/5 record (A/E 4.36) over C&D, a 23% SR (A/E 1.41) for the yard this season and Oasis Dream holds a superb 41% SR (A/E 1.58) with fancied French-born runners.