CalFergie

He’s probably short enough now but THE GLEN ROVERS looks the one to beat in the feature at Kempton this evening. The son of Dark Angel is in search of a hat trick after successes here at Kempton over 11f and 12f, respectively, and had a wall of horses in front of him when entering the straight in the latter but still won with something in hand. This is a step back up to C2 company off a 10lb higher mark than his penultimate start however he’s clearly in fine fettle and carries a top + blue FlatStats rating. Trainer L Wadham brings a deluge of positive favourite stats too boost claims further; most notable being a 69% SR (A/E 2.01) in handicaps and 58% SR (A/E 1.63) when they’re her only runner at the meeting. 6/4 taken.

Manton Road is far too short for this at evens given the drop back in trip. He’s looked much improved individual since upped to a mile; finishing 3/4l 3rd of 11 at Newcastle and being first past the post at Lingfield LTO but the son of Mohaather was demoted to 2nd on interference grounds. Next up ANEEDAH HERO makes plenty of appeal to me at 10/3; the Saxon Warrior gelding was strongly fancied in the market at Lingfield LTO but again faded in the final furlong. This is a more suitable trip (7f) and while he’s got a short turnaround to overcome trainers Muir + Grassick hold a superb 40% SR (A/E 1.63) with runners returning within a week and L Edmunds is a noteworthy booking given his four-timer here at Wolvo on Saturday night. The jockey also brings an almighty 52% SR (A/E 2.26) on fancied sprinters in Autumn/Winter when it’s his only mount at the meeting.

So Quiet is just shading Kalamunda for market leadership here but the former carries a poor FlatStats rating and both are sired by Zoustar who brings a damning 13% SR (A/E 0.36) with fancied runners at Lingfield. M Botti rarely utilises cheek pieces effectively (11% SR, A/E 0.46 when fancied) which makes Invincible Aura hard to side with, meanwhile E Dunlop’s 10% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied runners over a mile at Lingfield and owner P Turner’s 10% SR (A/E 0.47) with LTO winners puts Sterling Knight up against it. I’m going to wade in again with old friend HELM ROCK whom I’m trusting to put an underwhelming run at Kempton LTO behind him. He was less than ideally placed that day and had won previously at Southwell in November. Connections have still got wiggle room with this handicap mark you’d think and while the son of Pivotal has never ran at Lingfield before, his progeny tend to enjoy its tight nature (25% SR, A/E 1.29 over a mile). The sires’ 12% SR (A/E 1.28) with runners who finished 7th or worse LTO adds further confidence and 11/1 can be taken with 4 places.

He got me off to a flyer on NYD and I can’t abandon THE CALTONIAN here at 9/1 with 4 places on offer. The way he weaved through the field over C&D that day was impressive and the runner-up is clearly a smart sort having won and come 2nd on his last four starts. TC is running off his highest-ever mark after a 5lb hike in the weights, but I don’t think that that’s enough to stop the gelding running well again.

He’s got a long absence to overcome and this is his handicap debut, but 10/1 seems a huge each way price to me for DUBAI BLING. The thrice-raced son of Dark Angel won on debut at Haydock in June before putting in another fair display at Windsor (1/2l 2nd of 9). His last run of the season came in a listed contest at Newbury where he met traffic on a couple of occasions and could never close the gap but still finished a respectable 2.75l 5th of 9. This is an ease in grade, albeit against a tough field, but the H Palmer team tend to flourish in January (23% SR, A/E 1.34) so I trust them to have this colt ready on return.

AMAZONIAN DREAM just looks the wrong price for this at 12/1 (3 places). The Bungle Inthejungle gelding comes out with a lofty FlatStats rating of 100, just ahead of market leader We Never Stop and Brooklyn Nine Nine, who is also considerably shorter than AD. He won four times last year and couldn’t complete the hattrick at Newcastle on NYD but is back down in class here off an unchanged mark. B Millman brings a superb 19% SR (A/E 1.87) in C1-3 races on the AW, a 17% SR (A/E 1.3) in 4yo+ races and 14% SR (A/E 1.31) in Winter.

Apiarist needs to be opposed here given K Ryan’s 15% SR (A/E 0.45) with favourites over a mile and Night Of Thunder’s 17% SR (A/E 0.39) with favs a Chelmsford. I’m going to wade in a gain with HAT TOSS at 10/1 5 places on offer; the son of New Bay was a underwhelming at Wolvo on Boxing Day, finishing 4.25l 8th of 11 after a poor start. That was his first poor display since July so I’m willing to put a line through it and he won over C&D back in November off a 3lb lower mark. A number of positive stats boosts claims further; most notably NB’s 23% SR (A/E 1.36) with runners returning off 15 to 28 days away, his 21% SR (A/E 1.37) with runners coming up in trip and J Owen’s impressive 25% SR (A/E 1.35) in the midlands.

Top + blue FlatStats rated BOBBY BENNU makes plenty of appeal here at head of the market. The son of Phoenix Of Spain had the hood applied for the FT at Lingfield LTO and it looked to work wonders with him winning by 1l. He’s been given a break since and this is a step back up in class but the 4yo has shown a great attitude and POS’s huge 50% SR (A/E 1.69) with fancied runners carrying 9-4+ adds further confidence. 5/2 taken.

I wanted to get behind Kylian here at Lingfield today but favourites hold a poor 19% SR (A/E 0.6) in this race. Existent must be taken seriously given his last couple of runs, but this is a couple of steps up in class and he’s 0/6 when returning within a week. I can’t grasp the price of Bedford Flyer given his horrendous 0/19 record in C2 company, meanwhile Due Diligence’s 5% SR (A/E 0.43) in December and M Botti’s 10% SR (A/E 0.5) with 5f sprinters makes Sommelier hard to side with. Next up and old friend THE THAMES BOATMAN makes appeal each way at 15/2; the son of Havana Grey absolutely loves it at Lingfield with three wins from three, 2 of which coming over the minimum trip. He won here on his penultimate start (neck) and flattered to deceived when upped to 6f at Wolvo LTO but he was never put into the race and hasn’t been seen for nearly 3 months since. HG’s impressive 36% SR (A/E 1.88) over C&D adds further confidence.

2/1 for DYRHOLAEY looks decent value to me. The son of City Light notched up a hattrick of wins earlier this year, one of which coming over C&D and another in a C3 novice contest at Newcastle. Connections then put him away, ready for a tilt at the Palace Of Holyroodhouse, but pretty much everything went wrong and he finished 10.25l back in 21st. It’s likely that that came too soon for the gelding and this is much calmer waters, back at a venue he’s familiar with. J Doyle is incredibly selective with his rides in the winter nowadays and his 57% SR (A/E 1.64) on fancied French-sired runners along with a 62% SR (A/E 1.34) on favourites in C1-3 at Wolvo adding further confidence.

My final play of Boxing Day comes in the form of HAT TOSS at 4/1. Alazahir will do well to overcome J Candlish’s 1/22 record (A/E 0.19) with fancied runners over 7f, meanwhile Altmore carries a poor FlatStats rating and is likely to offer little value. Brasil Power is a bit more difficult to put a line through given his record when fresh but this is a step up in class from his highest-ever mark which is likely to make life difficult. Christian David and Waiting All Night carry poor FS ratings and the latter is also burdened with Rajasinghe’s 5% SR (A/E 0.3) with 4yo’s and I struggle to see a way in with the rest. New Bay brings a superb 71% SR (A/E 1.48) with favourites who finished 2nd LTO and HT is an incredibly consistent sort. He was just touched off (neck) at Lingfield (8f) at the beginning of the month and holds an advantageous draw in stall 4. Plenty of other stats provide further confidence including J Owen’s 56% SR (A/E 1.68) with fancied runners carrying 9-4 to 9-6 and 32% SR (A/E 1.62) at Wolvo.

I really like CLAYMORE’s chances here in the feature at Wolvo at 9/4. Paradias has come in for some support, but I can’t get behind the son of Kodiac given he’s 0/13 in C2 company and runs off an unchanged mark after holding no excuses in a 1.5l defeat at Southwell LTO. Haku looks too high in the handicap now on the basis of his 5.25l defeat earlier this month, meanwhile Onesmoothoperator is returning from a fairly underwhelming run in the Melbourne Cup last month and is just 1/16 over this trip. I can’t make a case for the couple remaining and to me that means the jolly can win by default. The son of New Bay hasn’t won since landing the Hampton Court Stakes in Royal Ascot a couple of years back but has thrown in plenty of decent efforts since. Connections are upping him to 12f today which I think will suit and NB brings a number of positive stats to boost claims; most notably a 20% SR (A/E 1.4) with runners coming up in trip and 23% SR (A/E 1.38) with runners returning off 15 to 28 days.