CalFergie

I understand why High Storm is head of the market here but considering Nathaniel progeny perform to nearly half of market expectations when favourite here at HQ (21% SR, A/E 0.55) then I think his son can be opposed. Next up EVANESCO makes the most appeal to me; colt by Too Darn Hot won once as a 2yo and finished a neck 2nd behind well thought of Isaac Newton in a maiden at Goodwood. He was in no way disgraced when last seen at Longchamp in a valuable stakes race, finishing 6.75l 7th of 16 and is rated just 4lb higher for that run. This comes as the 3yo’s handicap debut and he’s up to 10f today, which is pretty much the farthest that TDH offspring can reach. D Egan’s 42% SR (A/E 1.6) on fancied runners from Middleham-based yards adds further confidence. 10/3 taken.

Damysus will have to run out his skin here to overcome Wathnan’s 1/14 record (A/E 0.18) with favourites in Group races. Boiling Point will likely come forward from his 1.5l defeat in the Winter Derby in February, however his owner/breeder’s 13% SR (A/E 0.5) with fancied runners in 4yo+ races makes his price short enough. PERSICA won this last against better opposition on ratings and must surely play a part at 11/2. The son of New Bay has shown himself to be a top-quality horse, winning 7 of his 19 starts, including 2 at Gr3 level and 1 at listed. R Hannon always has his battalion ready come spring and a 18% SR (A/E 1.73) for owners M Hughes + M Kerr-Dineen adds further confidence.

POSEIDON’S WARRIOR could be anything and can make it 2 wins from 3 starts in the Feilden. Wareeth has started his career well with a resounding win at Newcastle last month, however he carries a damning FlatStats rating with A Watson’s 4% SR (A/E 0.41) at HQ tempering enthusiasm further. Isaac Newton will attract plenty of attention due to connections, but A O’Brien does horrifically with runners here in Britain in April (1/24, A/E 0.14 when fancied) and R Moore’s 8% SR (A/E 0.31) on fancied runners over C&D makes matters worse. T Marquand struggles over this trip (5% SR, A/E 0.28) so Morshdi looks up against it and it’s hard to make a case for the remainder. PW debuted at Haydock in September, finishing a respectable runner up to the well thought of Lost Boys, and really came forward NTO when upped to 9f at Goodwood (5l win). The son of Sea The Stars will surely have strengthened up over the winter and a couple of positive favourite stats boost claims further; most notably Godolphin’s 71% SR (A/E 1.45) in 9f stakes races and W Buick’s 56% SR (A/E 1.48) over this trip. 5/2 taken.

It’s great to have HQ back on Tuesday and I'm fancying REAL GAIN at 6/1 in the curtain closer. Great Chieftain is a fair enough market leader, however Gleneagles brings a poor 16% SR (A/E 0.44) with favourites returning off 57+ days away and 4/23 record (A/E 0.53) with favs at Newmarket (0/4 over a mile). A Balding struggles to get his 4yo’s fit after a break (8% SR, A/E 0.53 when 57+ days) so Mister Winston could needs this, meanwhile Esherann and Mythical Guest hold poor FlatStats ratings with negative stats to boot. I can’t make a case for the remainder, but RG has proven something of an anomaly in his 4-year career to date and would surprise no one to get a 4th win on the board. The gelding by Profitable won his first couple of starts on the AW before putting in a solid display on handicap debut at York (1.75l 3rd of 6). He put another hoof forward NTO here at HQ over 9f, comfortably taking a handicap off 91, but since then has placed once in 7 starts. He’s tumbled down the handicap subsequently, but is now just 1lb higher than his last winning mark.

While I think that the jolly is solid I can’t shake the feeling that THE CALTONIAN is too big an each way price at 12/1. The son of Swiss Spirit is stepping back up to 6f after an underwhelming display over 5f here at Newcastle in February; he looked to find the minimum trip far too sharp off this sort of weight (unchanged today) when plonked out the back throughout so I’m hoping that he’ll be able to get competitive with the extra yardage. It’s no secret as to how much the 7yo loves it at Gosforth Park 32% SR (A/E 1.6), particularly this trip (4/11, A/E 2.1) and there’s loads of positive outsider stats for SS to add confidence; most notably 8% SR (A/E 1.99) on triangle-shaped courses, 8% SR (A/E 1.61) with geldings and 7% SR (A/E 1.45) in handicaps.

My only bet of the day comes in the form of SAILOR SONG at 5/4. King Of Thebes is an interesting newcomer for Godolphin, but is their 2nd string and C Planas has a poor record on fancied 3yo’s (8% SR, A/E 0.26), meanwhile Al Azd needs to overcome R Scott’s 4% SR (A/E 0.46) on Saturdays. It’s near enough impossible to make a case for the outsiders so SS could win by default as well as on merit; the son of Zarak is twice raced, firstly at Southwell in February where he finished and underwhelming 9.25l 4th of 6 and then put in a much improved 1.5l 2nd of 9 at Doncaster last month. I’m expecting further improvement here and a number of positive fav stats for the sire boost claims further; most notably a 5/8 record (A/E 1.81) on flat + left handed courses.

Bahadur is current fav on the Exchanges, but S Woods’ 12% SR (A/E 0.47) with fancied runners on Mondays makes his charge hard to side with, meanwhile Serenity Blue carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside J Horton’s awful 1/69 record (A/E 0.18) with runners who finished 7th or worse LTO. Topteam is harder to rule out but he left plenty to be desired on his couple of starts on the AW, albeit at a lesser trip and I can’t make a case for the remaining. MARNIER could just win by default as well as on merit and he can continue where he left off with a comfortable maiden victory at Lingfield in November. That came on his sixth start so has been something of a slow learner, but he had gone close on two occasions prior so holds ability. The handicapper has, somewhat generously, left his mark alone and I really think he can capitalise on that on handicap debut. A top + blue FS rating plus Normandie Stud’s (breeder) 47% SR (A/E 1.72) with fancied runners over long distances and Saxon Warrior’s 43% SR (A/E 1.3) with fancied runners hailing from Newmarket adds further confidence. 4/1 taken.

Gethin can be opposed here given this is his first go on the AW and Ghaiyyath don’t tend to appreciate Kempton (11% SR, A/E 0.6), they tend to need the run (2/19, A/E 0.32 when fancied off 57+ days away) and O Burrows holds a poor 18% SR (A/E 0.47) with Irish-sired favourites. Devils Advocate will do well to overcome W Buick’s 11% SR (A/E 0.47) on fancied runners who finished 7th or worse LTO and general 14% SR (A/E 0.47) when riding for the Gosden’s, meanwhile Thunder Run is another making his AW debut and it’s no given he’ll take to it. PLAGE DU HAVRE has ran on the AW; winning once and finishing 2nd on four other occasions. He was pulled up at Newcastle on his last start in this sphere, with something clearly amiss, but he returned with aplomb at York when finishing 2.5l 3rd in a decent handicap and backed that up with success in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. The Le Havre gelding has so much going for him, including a top + blue FlatStats rating and owner S Suhail’s 45% SR (A/E 1.53) with runners returning off 57+ days away. 9/2 taken.

Another K Burke runner I fancy the chances of today is GENTLE WARRIOR at 11/1 (4 places). Gambino is an unknown entity in this sphere so I couldn’t be taking him at 3/1, meanwhile Wise Eagle is burdened by B Garritty’s 5% SR (A/E 0.49) on fancied runners returning off 57+ days away and 8% SR (A/E 0.41) with fancied runners on Saturdays. Moon Over Miami made the shortlist but Sea The Moon tend to need the run and the R Beckett yard aren’t usually fully firing at this time of year. Dancingwithmyself is another who you can argue a case for but at the prices GW made more appeal; the son of Mohaather was last seen finishing 4l 5th of 7 at Nottingham when going off 10/11 fav but he was badly hampered 3f out and never able to get involved. He put together a couple of wins in September so clearly holds ability and I’d expect him to have strengthened up over the winter. S Osbourne is a positive booking given her 20% SR (A/E 1.42) in April.

I’ve got to be taking on Regal Ulixes here given Ulysses’ 2/12 record (A/E 0.42) with favourites over 10f. Gaucher could prove the fly in the ointment, but he’s got a red FlatStats rating to overcome due to having no runs in the UK and W Mullins’ 0/8 record on the AW over here, meanwhile Duke’s Command will to well to overcome owner J Chua’s 4% SR (A/E 0.38) with runners in 4yo+ races and D O’Meara’s 7% SR (A/E 0.5) in April. Paradias is an old friend but this isn’t his trip and Bragbor has a negative jockey booking in J Spencer with his 10% SR (A/E 0.49) on runners coming up in class. This looks set up for a double-digit runner and ANTRIM makes appeal at 18/1 (4 places); the gelding by Dubawi is returning after a stint in Meydan, winning an 11f handicap before being upped in grade and never landing a blow. Connections then rolled the dice with a go at Group 2 level but he failed to beat a rival home, which I think is having an influence on his price today. The 4yo has won twice over C&D and has clearly improved since then.

My only play at Lingfield today comes in the form of EUPATOR at 22/1 with 4 places on offer. My Fermoy needs to overcome Kodiac’s 0/7 record with favourites over 10f at Lingfield, meanwhile K Ryan is in poor form (0/15 over the past month) so I couldn’t be having Dark Moon Rising at the prices. This looks another one set up for an outsider and EUPATOR looks vastly overpriced; the son of Persian King was upped a couple of classes LTO here and dropped to a probably now inadequate trip of a mile. He only lost out by 3l in a bunched finish and has been subsequently dropped a pound in the handicap so a step back up to 10f looks a sure positive. R Hannon’s 11% SR (A/E 1.89) with outsiders on Fridays adds further confidence of a decent run.

I’m having a couple in this one, starting with market leader SILENT STRIKE at 7/2. This is the son of Mehmas’s handicap debut after decent displays in maiden and novice company; a win sandwiched between two close 2nd's. His most recent outing came here at Newcastle over 6f, going down by 1/2l to the well-backed Soul Love, but beating Cotai Lights who showed plenty of ability on his own handicap debut at Naas behind A O’Briens Causeway. On that evidence an opening mark of 90 looks incredibly lenient and O Murphy’s exemplary 6/6 record (A/E 3.47) on handicap favourites over C&D boosts claims further.

DURHAM CASTLE has ousted Fast Track Harry from favouritism, and I really fancy the chances of the former. FTH comes out top on FlatStats rating, however R Hornby’s 10% SR (A/E 0.44) on fancied runners returning within 8 to 14 days plus owner J Smith’s 5% SR (A/E 0.3) in March makes his charge easy to oppose. Tuco Salamanca was shortlisted but I just fancy the more lightly raced jolly, meanwhile Change Sings needs to overcome E Johnson Houghton’s 2/51 record (A/E 0.3) with 6yo’s. You could perhaps looks for an each way play but it looks like DC should be winning by default as well as on merit; the gelding by Havana Grey is 3/6 in his career, all of which going off favourite. He’s got a lengthy absence to overcome (285 days) but Rabbah Racing’s 59% SR (A/E 1.44) with favourites at southern courses and HG’s 5/10 record (A/E 1.55) with 5yo favs more than negates the layoff. 5/2 taken.

Another jolly I fancy the chances off at Doncaster on Saturday is TURTY TREE. The son of New Bay showed plenty of potential when finishing runner-up in a mile novice at HQ in October and I’m expecting more now up in trip from the powerful A Balding yard. NB brings a few positive favourite stats to provide further confidence; a 51% SR (A/E 1.33) at Northern courses, 46% SR (A/E 1.44) in C1-3 races and 45% SR (A/E 1.28) with Irish-born runners. 11/8 taken.

SPYCATCHER should take all the beating here at 4/1. My Mate Alfie carries a negative draw in stall 6 plus poor FlatStats rating, meanwhile Montassib needs to reverse the form with SC from their C&D run in the Wentworth in November. Jasour needs to overcome owner Almohamediya’s 4% SR (A/E 0.32) on Saturdays and while I can make a case for James’s Delight, the jolly looks a more solid bet. He’s boosted by P-L Jamin’s 31% SR (A/E 1.48) on fancied runners in C1-3 races and 15% SR (A/E 1.63) on runners returning off 57+ days away.

I can’t be having Power Fizz here given Wootton Bassett’s 9% SR (A/E 0.36) with fancied runners coming down in trip (2/10, A/E 0.48 when fav). Sergeant Wilko will do well to overcome Bungle Inthejungle’s 11% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners coming down in class, meanwhile Wheels Of Fire’s last couple of runs coming on the AW left plenty to be desired. HOCKNEY has come in for support and 8/1 still looks decent value with 4 places on offer; the son of Showcasing sneaks in here at bottom weight (8-11) but a mark of 78 surely can’t be his ceiling after two comfortable victories on his last couple of starts. Both of those came after a wind op and I’m expecting him to be fully wound up today given T Dascombe’s 46% SR (A/E 1.54) with runners returning off 57+ days. The trainer’s 36% SR (A/E 1.51) with fancied runners carrying up to 8-12 plus 39% SR (A/E 1.81) with fancied ones when booking P-L Jamin adds further confidence.

Fast Track Harry can be opposed here given owner J Smith’s 14% SR (A/E 0.4) with favourites who ran 15 to 28 days ago plus 1/11 record (A/E 0.28) with fancied runners in March. Heavenly Heather carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside B McHugh’s 6% SR (A/E 0.29) on fancied runners in Spring, meanwhile Stratusnine needs to overcome Far Above’s 5% SR (A/E 0.47) on flat tracks. WE NEVER STOP has won and placed from three goes over 6f here at Newcastle and looks worthy of a chance at 6/1; the son of Cotai Glory was successful here in April last year off a 3lb higher mark and his first couple of runs this AW campaign were solid enough (1.25l 4th of 9 and 3.25l 7th of 13). I’m willing to forgive an underwhelming display at Kempton LTO given it was his first outing there and CG tend to struggle at the course, but this is a completely different proposition due to the sire’s 25% SR (A/E 1.51) with handicappers over 6f at Newcastle and 15% SR (A/E 1.52) with runners who finished 7th or worse LTO.

A nice early play for me tomorrow at Southwell, coming in the form of SEE BLUE at 9/4. Penny Time is weighed down by a deluge of negatives; most notably Mehmas’s 9% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied runners foaled in May and 12% SR (A/E 0.5) with fancied runners in C1-3 races, however Salgados could prove the fly in the ointment. Menzies will do well to overcome H Eustace’s 0/30 record with novices over middle distances plus Seattle Chief and the remainder (bar-Kokushoku) carry poor FlatStats rating and are unlikely to offer much value. This looks like the jolly could win by default as well as on merit, and the top + blue FS rated son of Blue Point can make it 2/2 after his break. The colt was fairly unimpressive on debut at Kempton in September but did show a decent attitude to run on for a short-headed success. R Hughes is a master on the AW and the yard have shown solid form over the past fortnight (36% SR, A/E 1.46) so you’d fully expect their charge to have filled his frame over the winter. Hughes’s 40% SR (A/E 1.92) over C&D is another reason for optimism.