CalFergie

Predominantly stick to C1-3 races on the flat. Use stats and systems alongside form to find selections. Some tips are based on market support so follow my Twitter handle for updates - @CalFergie

1

Estimated Prizes
this month

£10

Estimated Prize money
this month

CalFergie's Tips History

All tips
All sports
05 July 2025
15:15 3:15 Haydock

City Of Delight

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@12.00

Lose

-50

Siyouni’s 1/24 record (A/E 0.17) with fancied runner over long distances makes Sir Lowry’s Pass easy to oppose here. Given the 5 places on offer I think you can look away from the top end of market and CITY OF DELIGHT makes plenty of appeal at 11/1; the D Menuisier-trained gelding has won twice and finished runner-up on his three starts this season. He’s running off an 8lb higher mark than what he started the season with, but that’s a testament to his rise through the ranks and I’m not convinced that this is his ceiling. The 4yo is 5W 1P from 6 on similar going so will thrive under these conditions and Menuisier’s impressive 31% SR (A/E 2.05) with US-born runners suggests that his charge could prove plenty of value.
2 members found this comment useful
03 July 2025
18:58 6:58 Kempton

Assail

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@SP

Lose

-50

It’s difficult to oppose Siempre Arturo at head of the market in the feature here at Kempton, but ASSAIL should be much shorter than 7/1 IMO and that makes him a value bet. J Fanshawe is having a torrid time of things currently (1/18, A/E 0.35 over the past fortnight) which makes Charmaine hard to side with, meanwhile the Crisford’s have a deceiving 10% SR over the past month with an A/E 0.54 suggesting that their runners are performing to half of market expectations making Kitty Furnival short enough. I couldn’t be as bold as to play Assail to win given the strength of the favourite, but the gelding by No Nay Never has to go close. The lightly raced 5yo is a C&D winner, coming in September last year off a mark just 3lb lower than today and excuses can be made for his two poor runs on turf since. With a top + blue FlatStats rating, the booking of H Crouch with his 37% SR (A/E 1.4) on fancied runners over 12f and owner Raed El Youssef’s 41% SR (A/E 1.62) with fancied US-sired runners there’s plenty going for him.
02 July 2025
17:13 5:13 Thirsk

Tinto

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@12.00

Lose

-50

On the basis of his last run here over 5f in May TINTO has to appeal at 11/1 (4 places). Due Diligence's 18% SR (A/E 0.45) with favourites who won LTO makes Easy Peeler easy to oppose, meanwhile J Camacho's 5% SR (A/E 0.46) with Dandy Man progeny puts Mythical Phoenix up against it. Pals Battalion made my shortlist (so will likely win now) but the D O'Meara team have really hit a flat spot and while M Dods has struggled to fire all season Tinto makes more appeal at the prices. The 9yo by Compton Place has been a fantastic servant for connections, winning 11 times from 86 starts including 3 C&D wins from 8. His last 2 wins at Thirsk have come off this mark (88), as did the nose defeat on his penultimate start where he just ran out of time. Dods' 18% SR (A/E 1.65) with Llety Farms-bred runners adds further confidence.
01 July 2025
15:00 3:00 Musselburgh

Castle Stuart

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 6.00 on 30/06 at 22:210.20 deduction for I Am Me@4.50 withdrawn at 06:37R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 5.00 x (1-0.20) = 5.00

@5.00

Win

200

My first bet of July and potentially only of Tuesday comes in the form of CASTLE STUART at 9/2. A case can be made for The Trickster, however I Am Me ran on Monday so is unlikely to take up this engagement and Individualism has to overcome C Johnston’s 1/28 record (A/E 0.15) with fancied runners over 9f. P Mulrennan is a negative jockey booking for Silent Age given his 2% SR (A/E 0.38) on outsiders in July and King Power’s 2% SR (A/E 0.3) with outsiders coming down in trip puts Bubbles Wonky up against it. Plenty of negative unfancied stats for R Scott makes Rhythm Master hard to side with so this looks down to the jolly and CS in my eyes. The latter, trained by K Burke, has won once from 5 starts and looked like he needed the run over a mile here at Musselburgh in April. That sole win came over 8.5f and he’s got an extra 1/2f to get into top gear with a top jockey in S James around this course (21% SR, A/E 1.34). Burke’s 27% SR (A/E 1.74) for Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum owned + bred runners adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
30 June 2025
18:45 6:45 Windsor

Headmaster

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.10

Lose

-50

I really think HEADMASTER should take all the beating here. Kaleido can be opposed given Make Believe’s 11% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners, meanwhile New Bay’s 9% SR (A/E 0.4) with fancied runners wearing the hood puts Lone Warrior up against it. Antipodes needs to take a huge step forward from his last two starts and I can’t make a case for the remaining runners. HM showed plenty of promise on debut at Lingfield, staying on over 7f to finish 3/4l 2nd. You’d fully expect improvement from the step up to a mile and from the experience last month so the son of Dubawi can go one better today.
29 June 2025
16:10 4:10 Curragh

Tennessee Stud

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@8.00

Lose

-50

I can't be having Lambourn at this sort of price. Horses just don't complete the Derby double and we've seen previously with Serpentine that if you get out in front at Epsom and keep rolling you'll be incredibly difficult to peg back. TENNESSEE STUD makes plenty of appeal against at 7/1; the son of Wootton Bassett took a big step forward LTO from a 3rd in a Derby Trial at Leopardstown and I'm expecting further improvement. He made up so much ground from the rear at Epsom as a fast-finishing 3rd and you've got to think a smaller field will have him much closer to the pace. He showed the longest stride length in the race that day, 2nd fastest top speed along with 2nd fastest finishing speed. The colt has so much going for him.
28 June 2025
15:40 3:40 York

Commanding Officer

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

Crest Of Fire’s poor FlatStats rating is enough to make me want to take on the market leader here. Hankelow has come in for support but breeder George Kent holds a damning 9% SR (A/E 0.42) with 2yo colts and 7% SR (A/E 0.35) with colts over sprint trips, however COMMANDING OFFICER carries a lofty top + blue FS rating and he showed enough during his 2l defeat on debut to suggest that he’ll come forward for the experience. Teofilo’s 41% SR (A/E 1.36) with fancied 2yo’s is another reason for optimism and 9/2 makes plenty of appeal.
1 member found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 Newcastle

East India Dock

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.00

Lose

-50

My strongest fancy of the day comes in the form of EAST INDIA DOCK in the Northumberland Plate at 11/2. The son of Golden Horn is a proven stayer given his exploits over hurdles and successes over 2+ miles, most notable being in the Chester Cup in May (18.5f). He was in no way disgraced when finishing 1.75l 6th of 20 in the Ascot Cup last week but was perhaps carrying a bit too much weight for that marathon trip (20f) so the drop back to 16f is a sure positive off an unchanged mark. J Doyle hasn’t ridden many times for J Owen but it’s been a fruitful relationship (3/8, A/E 1.64), their charge carries a top + blue FlatStats rating and The Gredley Family’s huge 79% SR (A/E 1.65) with favourites on the AW keeping to the same class adds plenty of confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 York

Regal Envoy

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

Jm Jungle will likely win this doing handstands but I still think REGAL ENVOY is the best value at 13/2. The gelding by Ardad is in search of his fourth win this season already from 5 starts; the first of those coming at HQ in April before finishing 1/2l 2nd at Windsor when upped to 6f. His next two outings were also at Windsor, this time back over the minimum trip which looks more his bag and you’ve got to think that a 4lb rise in the handicap won’t be enough to stop another positive run today. Breeder Coseda Ltd’s 31% SR (A/E 1.78) with Ardad offspring provides further confidence.
14:10 2:10 Newcastle

Al Shabab Storm

Daily Racing

25 EWNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@23.00

Void

0

I’m respecting of Kind Of Blue here but there’s nothing making me want to back him. Ferrous will have to overcome C Beasley’s poor 10% SR (A/E 0.41) on fancied runners over 6f at Newcastle, meanwhile I’m not a fan of the application of blinkers for Alyanaabi given Too Darn Hot’s 0/6 record so far with their use on his progeny. With the top three in the market out the way you’re looking at each way prices and of those AL SHABAB STORM makes the most appeal at 22/1. The gelding by Advertise ran a huge race on yard debut in the Lady Wulfruna at Wolvo back in March (3/4l 3rd of 7) before flattering to deceive in the Cammidge at Doncaster in March (last of 9). Connections have given him a few months off to freshen the 4yo up and given he’s a listed operator on his day on turf you’ve got to think he can be running well in a Gr3 on the AW. Advertise’s 19% SR (A/E 1.5) on triangle-shaped courses and M Botti’s 10% SR (A/E 1.76) with outsiders who ran 57+ days ago suggests he’ll outrun his odds.
1 member found this comment useful
27 June 2025
19:35 7:35 Newcastle

Paddys Day

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@12.00

Win

330

I can’t quite grasp the price of PADDY’S DAY here at 11/1 (4 places). Vintage Clarets is far too short given R Fahey’s 13% SR (A/E 0.32) with favourites over 5f at Newcastle and W Fentiman’s 20% SR (A/E 0.51) generally on favs. I’m fully respecting of Bergerac but he’s got a 4lb penalty to carry for a win LTO at Hamilton and was firmly put in his place when running against PD in March, meanwhile Jakajaro has to overcome 9% SR (A/E 0.34) with fancied runners on the AW in summer. This looks one for an each way play and the N Tinkler-trained gelding makes the most appeal; he won four races in a row over C&D at the beginning of the year, the most recent coming off just a 2lb lower mark. The 5yo ran well enough on his two starts since, both on turf, but it’s safe to say that the AW is more his bag (35% SR, A/E 1.91) so the switch back is a huge positive and 5lb claimer A Jary’s 18% SR (A/E 1.78) over 5f here at Newcastle adds further confidence.
26 June 2025
19:15 7:15 Hamilton

Vantheman

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.50

Lose

-50

He let me down here at Hamilton LTO over 6f but the drop in class and back to the minimum trip should see VANTHEMAN take all the beating at 5/2. The son of Invincible Army has come in for plenty of market support to boost confidence against a field who aren't anywhere near him on ratings and plenty of positive favourite stats for IA suggest he's decent value; most notable being his 63% SR (A/E 1.83) with 5f handicappers and 58% SR (A/E 1.67) over this trip on straight courses.
15:10 3:10 Newcastle

Penzance

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@6.50

Lose

-50

I don’t like Ashariba for this at all given she’s the only filly in the race and Ribchester holds a 8% SR (A/E 0.39) with fancied runners in 4yo+ handicaps on turf. Royal Approval will do well to overcome P McDonanld’s 13% SR (A/E 0.49) on fancied runners carrying up to 8-11, meanwhile J Hart’s 6% SR (A/E 0.47) on British-born runners adds little confidence for Wadacre Gomez. Storm Catcher has plenty to prove on the basis of his last 6 starts, ranging back to March last year, but PENZANCE is a brilliant AW performer (36% SR, A/E 1.71) and a chance can be taken at 11/2 now returning to this surface. The son of Wootton Bassett is a C&D winner and finished 1.25l 2nd of 14 off a 5lb higher mark last year. He was successful on his penultimate start on the AW, coming at Chelmsford off the same mark so he must be dangerously weighted and M Appleby’s huge 53% SR (A/E 1.89) with fancied runners bred by Newsells Park Stud adds further confidence.
25 June 2025
15:55 3:55 Salisbury

Dark Thirty

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@4.50

Win

175

I’m going in again with old friend DARK THIRTY at 7/2 here. Montpellier has to overcome J Ferguson’s 13% SR (A/E 0.37) with favourites in 3yo+ races on turf, meanwhile F Larson is a negative for Kodi Lion with his 3% SR (A/E 0.25) on uphill courses. DT won on reappearance at Doncaster in March before flattering to deceive at Newmarket the following month. He looked to bounce back to form at York LTO, finishing 2nd by 1.25l and is running off just a 1lb higher mark today in much calmer waters. S Levey brings a decent 18% SR (A/E 1.87) for these owners and R Hannon a slightly better 19% SR (A/E 1.86) so it’s clear that the MO is understood.
15:25 3:25 Salisbury

Wojtek

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.75

Lose

-50

I’d make WOJTEK clear favourite for this given his top + blue FlatStats rating so 7/4 looks a fair bet. R Hughes’s 12% SR (A/E 0.5) with fancied runners on uphill courses puts Nifty up against it and it’s hard to see any of the others putting up a challenge to the two market principles. Wojtek put in a decent enough display on debut earlier this month, keeping on towards the finish for a 2.5l 2nd of 9 over C&D. I wouldn’t say that he looked overly green but perhaps lacked a bit of fitness, which the son of Invincible Army will have here, and the C Cox yard are slowly starting to get back into the swing of things after a tardy few months. Cox brings a superb 40% SR (A/E 1.36) with fancied runners over 6f at Salisbury and IA a plethora of positive fancied stats; most notable being a 50% SR (A/E 1.73) with 2yo colts and 43% SR (A/E 1.61) with runners hailing from Lambourn.
22 June 2025
16:50 4:50 Pontefract

Partisan Hero

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.00

Lose

-50

PARTISAN HERO should take all the beating here as 2/1 market leader. Rare Change carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside F Marsh’s 5% SR (A/E 0.19) with fancied runners on Sundays and R Hughes’ 13% SR (A/E 0.46) with fancied runners on Sundays also, meanwhile the E Bethell yard are struggling of late (8% SR, A/E 0.57 over the past fortnight) along with C Rodriguez (1/27, A/E 0.2) which puts me off Native Instinct. The rest are all poorly FS rated and some carry negative stats too, making this much easier for the jolly. With a top + blue FS rating, the son of Muhaarar has looked incredibly progressive since switching to the D Loughnane yard; winning on three occasions and placing on his six other starts. He won LTO at Epsom, albeit by a head, but is running off just a 3lb higher mark today and dropping class to make life easier. The 5yo isn't guaranteed to get a freebie out in front due to NI, but he’ll be thereabouts, the yard are in form (15% SR, A/E 1.67 over the past month) and R Ryan brings a 47% SR (A/E 1.43) on favourites from the West Midlands.
1 member found this comment useful
21 June 2025
19:15 7:15 Haydock

Gold Dawn

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.00

Lose

-50

Most firms have gone odds on but B365 are evens for GOLD DAWN and I can’t escape that price. B Garritty does awfully on Saturdays (8% SR, A/E 0.43) which makes Penhallam hard to side with, meanwhile Soldier’s Call’s 6% SR (A/E 0.45) with runners in June suggests that Eyes Front won’t come forward from his two starts to date. It’s difficult to make a case for the double-digit runners so GD could just win by default as well as on merit; the colt by Havana Gold was a 1.25l 2nd of 8 on debut over C&D last month, looking like making all a furlong out before taking a bad step and being eased. He’s surely capable of building on that from a yard who are overperforming of late (14% SR, A/E 1.56 over the past month) with a top booking in J Mitchell.
17:00 5:00 Royal Ascot

Cover Up

Daily Racing

25 EW

@29.00

Lose

-50

More Thunder will do seriously well in the Wokingham to overcome Night Of Thunder’s 2/15 record (A/E 0.46) with favourites at Ascot (0/7 in handicaps), meanwhile Jarraaf, Aramram and Completely Random have hard draws to negate. Orazio isn’t ideally placed either in stall 24 plus carries a poor FlatStats rating, and while Purosangue makes appeal I prefer the look of COVER UP at 28/1 with 6 places on offer. The 5yo is a fairly consistent handicapper with 6 wins under his belt and 2 places from 20 starts. He’s finished within a few lengths of the winner on his last three starts so looks well enough weighted, holds a positive draw in stall 8, has a decent jockey booking in S De Sousa who brings a 29% SR (A/E 1.55) with Godolphin-bred runners when they AREN’T owned by the powerhouse and I’m hoping that he’ll be close enough to the pace with the low-draw advantage to pounce late.
1 member found this comment useful
14:30 2:30 Royal Ascot

Treanmor

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@2.25

Lose

-50

Vlad hasn’t exactly been backing the form up with two consecutive 2nd's, including when 2/9f on Thursday, but I’m not convinced we’ve seen the best of him yet and TREANMOR firmly put him in his place on debut (4l) last month. Moments Of Joy holds a poor FlatStats rating and Justify’s 12% SR (A/E 0.38) with fancied runners on straight courses adds less confidence, meanwhile Humidity has to overcome Wathnan’s 10% SR (A/E 0.42) with fancied runners over 7f and Ulysses’ 11% SR (A/E 0.45) with fancied runners in C1-3 races. 5/4 for Treanmor is probably skinny enough but he carries a lofty top + blue FS rating after an impressive display at Newmarket. The son of Frankel didn’t have to exert himself to come out victorious so is open to any amount of improvement, C Appleby’s 2yo’s are flourishing this season (42% SR, A/E 1.16) and W Buick’s 50% SR (A/E 1.99) when riding Epona Bloodstock-bred runners adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
20 June 2025
17:57 5:57 Newmarket

Mr Swivell

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

I found Cavolo Nero and King Casper easy to oppose here; the former might have 1221 by his name but he’s coming up in class, the form of his latest success amounts to nothing and D Muscutt brings a poor 11% SR (A/E 0.48) with fancied runners at triangle-shaped tracks. The latter meanwhile showed fair ability when finishing 3l 4th of 12 in a C2 handicap at Haydock LTO, but J Leavy is a damning jockey booking with his 4% SR (A/E 0.4) over a mile and 5% SR (A/E 0.39) in 3yo races. Next up MR SWIVELL makes appeal against at 9/2; the son of City Light is in search of a hattrick after successes at Yarmouth and Chelmsford respectively and looks worthy of the step up in class. This will be just his 4th start for the K P De Foy yard who’ve clearly got a good tune out this 4yo (form 211) and his breeder’s 44% SR (A/E 1.92) with fancied middle-distance runners is notable.
17:35 5:35 Royal Ascot

Regal Ulixes

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@17.00

Lose

-50

Potentially my only Royal Ascot play today comes in the form of REGAL ULIXES at 16/1 (each way). Amiloc has to be respected, however Postponed’s 12% SR (A/E 0.42) with fancied runners carrying 9-1 to 9-3 makes his son short enough, meanwhile Zahrann carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside J Murtagh’s poor 2/57 record (A/E 0.33) in stakes races in the UK. Camelot doesn’t produce many top-quality horses (12% SR, A/E 0.45 when fancied in Group races) and his 4% SR (A/E 0.33) at Ascot is another reason to put a line through Puppet Master so this years’ King Edward looks an outsiders chance. The lightly raced RU is 2/3 so far with a 2l defeat on debut at Goodwood looking decent enough form. He was entitled to the run when winning by a neck at Doncaster earlier this month and connections must think plenty of the colt as the Derby Trial at Epsom was on the cards after his success at Newbury, but things didn’t go to plan. He’s open to any amount of improvement, holds a decent draw in stall 8 and A Balding’s 9% SR (A/E 1.45) with outsiders coming up in trip provides plenty of confidence.
2 members found this comment useful
15:23 3:23 Redcar

Padishakh

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

My NAP today comes (thankfully) away from Ascot with the feature at Redcar. Marhaba Ghaiyyath is easy enough to oppose given C Johnston’s awful record with J Abdullah runners, particularly when fancied (12% SR, A/E 0.43) and Ghaiyyath’s 1/32 record (A/E 0.18) with horses coming up in class is another cause for concern. Next up PADISHAKH makes the most appeal against and 4/1 looks decent value; the gelding by Wootton Bassett is yet to win at or above his current mark but this is just his 3rd run for E Bethell, winning on yard debut at Nottingham before being upped in trip at Ripon and losing by 3.25l. He looked stretched that day so the drop back to a mile is a sure positive and Bethell’s 33% SR (A/E 1.29) with fancied runners on good to firm going adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
19 June 2025
18:10 6:10 Royal Ascot

Myal

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@29.00

Win

115

Everything I’ve touched at Ascot so far this week may well have not turned up, so on that note I’m going for MYAL at 28/1 (6 places) in the closer today. The 4yo was last seen winning at Chester, backing up a success at Haydock a couple of starts prior. He’s running off his highest-ever mark but that’s a testament to his progressive nature in these handicaps and you’ve got to take note of the booking of R Ryan with the pair renewing acquaintances since a win at Carlisle last year. There’s an absolute deluge of positive stats to boost claims further; most notable being owner R Baileys 37% SR (A/E 1.83) with LTO winners, his 28% SR (A/E 1.95) when his runner is the trainer’s only that day, Al Kazeem’s 24% SR (A/E 1.58) with runners returning off 15 to 28 days away plus S Hollinshead’s 30% SR (A/E 1.9) with LTO winners.
1 member found this comment useful
15:50 3:50 Ripon

Trefor

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.00

Win

150

TREFOR should take all the beating in the feature at Ripon this afternoon and 3/1 can be taken. The son of Invincible Army built on a 1.5l defeat on his penultimate start to win by 1/2l at Doncaster LTO when eased in class; he’s put back into C2 level today off a 4lb higher mark so must be competitive. He’s fairly lightly raced for a 4yo so we can’t be sure where his ceiling lies and a few positive favourite stats for IA boost claims further; a 58% SR (A/E 1.67) at northern courses, a 53% SR (A/E 1.59) on straight tracks and 50% SR (A/E 1.4) with sprinters.
15:05 3:05 Royal Ascot

Gunship

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

I suspect that GUNSHIP is overpriced here at 10/1 with 5 places on offer. The colt by legendary Sea The Stars has been coming along nicely, winning on debut at Newcastle and adding to that tally LTO at the same venue. He’s got a big jump in class to contend with today but connections wouldn’t be throwing him in here if he was without hope and STS’s 38% SR (A/E 1.43) with fancied runners wearing the tongue strap is another reason for optimism.
14:30 2:30 Royal Ascot

Naval Light

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@12.00

Lose

-50

He’s been drifting like the preverbal barge but NAVAL LIGHT looks a fair each way play at 11/1 (4 places). I understand the hype around Charles Darwin but A O’Brien’s 9% SR (A/E 0.4) with fancied runners over 5f in the UK makes him far too short in the market. The K Burke yard won this last year with Shareholder and their son of Havana Grey should come forward from his 1.5l defeat on debut at Beverley last month. With a top + blue FlatStats rating to boot, Wathnan’s 40% SR (A/E 1.5) with fancied runners on uphill courses adds further confidence.
18 June 2025
18:10 6:10 Royal Ascot

Old Is Gold

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

Fully respecting of Rogue Legend in the Windsor Castle but I don’t have anything making me want to back him so I think an each way play is on the cards. R Fahey does awfully with Invincible Spirit progeny (7% SR, A/E 0.5) so I’m not expecting a step forward from his 1/2l 2nd on debut last month, meanwhile E Johnson Houghton’s 12% SR (A/E 0.45) with fancied 5f runners puts me off Havana Hurricane. OLD IS GOLD appeals at 8/1 with 4 places; the colt by Mehmas ran a solid enough 1l 3rd of 7 over C&D on debut last month before being thrown into a 2yo conditions race and winning with any amount in hand. Wathnan clearly think plenty of him as he was bought by them after beating their Naval Light that day and they’re having a stellar week so far. A top + blue FlatStats rating to boot, Wathnan bring a huge 43% SR (A/E 1.59) with fancied runners on uphill tracks and 33% SR (A/E 1.94) with fancied sprinters at Ascot to add confidence.
17:00 5:00 Royal Ascot

Silawi

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@26.00

Lose

-50

I think that SILAWI is worth a shot at 28/1 here with 6 places on offer. The son of Dubawi was well supported when comfortably winning a C3 handicap at Windsor last month, virtually making all for new connections. He looks the most likely to set the fractions again today and while has got a 5lb penalty to carry he’s due to go up 2lb in the near future so is probably fairly weighted. The 5yo has a top jockey booking in J Doyle who won the last two races of day 1 for Wathnan, a positive draw in stall 12 and the owner’s 20% SR (A/E 1.67) at Ascot to add further confidence.
2 members found this comment useful
16:20 4:20 Royal Ascot

Anmaat

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@6.00

Lose

-50

5/1 for ANMAAT is a huge price to me. Los Angeles has to overcome Camelot’s 0/7 record with favs at Ascot and 9% SR (A/E 0.37) with fancied middle-distance runners in 4yo+ races, meanwhile See The Fire needs to take a big step forward from her win in a fillies and mares Gr2 at York LTO. Map Of Stars is a smart operator on his day but this is his first go on quick ground after all his starts have come on good to soft or worse so you can’t be sure what to expect. W Buick holds a poor 5% SR (A/E 0.25) over 10f at Ascot and confidence is likely to be low after not a single place on Day 1 which makes Ombudsman hard to side with. Anmaat won at 40/1 SP on his final start last season, coming over C&D, and his 1/2l defeat to LA in the Tattersalls Gold Cup looks a solid prep for this given the latter had already had a run. The son of Awtaad is 6/9 on similar going, holds a top + blue FlatStats rating and J Crowley brings a 32% SR (A/E 1.86) in Group races for O Burrows.
17 June 2025
17:35 5:35 Royal Ascot

Ambiente Friendly

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I cannot get my head around AMBIENTE FRIENDLY being 16/1 here (4 places). Yes the 2024 Derby runner-up has failed to live up to expectations, but this is a drop into listed company after going off joint favourite on his last two starts at Gr3 and Gr2 respectively. The jockey has failed to settle him on both starts this term after a switch to the J Owen yard in the winter so I’m hoping that connections have finally unpicked his headstrong nature and the big field will mean that he can get plenty of cover. R Havlin renews acquaintances which is a positive given 2 of his 3 rides on him has proven fruitful including that Epsom Derby and 1.25l 3rd in the Irish Derby. Owen is a master at giving horses a small break of 29 to 56 days (23% SR, A/E 1.73) and his 24% SR (A/E 1.48) on good ground is another string to their bow.
3 members found this comment useful
17:00 5:00 Royal Ascot

Poniros

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-50

Reaching High can be opposed here given his poor FlatStats rating plus W Mullins’ 13% SR (A/E 0.37) with favourites in 4yo+ races on turf in the UK. East India Dock has to be taken seriously but J Owen’s 1/20 record (A/E 0.2) with fancied runners in June and The Gredley’s 7% SR (A/E 0.32) with fancied runners in Summer puts me off their charge. Bottom weight and stablemate to RH PONIROS makes appeal at 11/2; the son of Golden Horn sprung the surprise of all surprises when winning the Triumph at Cheltenham with an SP of 100/1 and backed that up a 2nd place in a Grade 1 hurdle at Punchestown NTO. He hasn't’ been seen since and the extreme trip is a question mark but he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree, W Buick brings a 39% SR (A/E 1.29) on fancied runners wearing the hood, A Bloom a 46% SR (A/E 1.86) with fancied long-distance runners and 34% SR (A/E 1.82) with fancied runners in C1-3 races so there’s plenty to be confident about.
1 member found this comment useful
15:40 3:40 Royal Ascot

Mgheera

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@10.00

Void

0

The top + blue FlatStats rated MGHEERA should go off shorter than the 10/1 on offer currently (4 places). I’m respecting of Asfoora in her bid to retain her crown, however she’s got a bit to prove after a deflating 7th of 14 in a fillies and mares Gr1 in Australia last month. Believing was last seen winning a Gr1 in Meydan and gave two solid accounts here at the royal meeting last year however G Boughey holds a poor 4% SR (A/E 0.45) at Ascot and Mehmas a 7% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied 5yo’s. Wathnan don’t do well with 4yo’s which puts the newly acquired Night Raider up against it so an each way play looks the way forward; Mgheera is in search of a hattrick after Gr3 and Gr2 wins at Llongchamp and Haydock respectively with both coming on her first two starts for E Walker. I don’t think the mare will be too inconvenienced by the quick ground and she’s got a top jockey booking in W Buick with his 36% SR (A/E 1.69) on fancied runners over 5f at Ascot. Walker’s 36% SR (A/E 1.86) with fancied runners in Group races provides further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
15:05 3:05 Royal Ascot

Rock On Thunder

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@11.00

Lose

-50

I think ROCK ON THUNDER is overpriced at 11/1 with 4 places on offer. Gstaad has to shoulder his owner’s 13% SR (A/E 0.46) with runners on their first start in the UK and Starspangledbanner’s 19% SR (A/E 0.58) with favourites in June, meanwhile H Al Jehani’s 1/16 record (A/E 0.19) with fancied runners in summer adds little confidence for Postmodern. I did like the look of Military Code (so will probably win) but ROT could hold any amount of improvement from his 1.25l debut win at Leicester and looks a more appealing price. The 3rd that day has gone on to win a C2 novice event at Chester and the 5th a C3 maiden at York so the form looks to be stacking up nicely and Night Of Thunder’s 23% SR (A/E 1.38) with 2yo’s in June is another reason for optimism.
1 member found this comment useful
14:30 2:30 Royal Ascot

Rosallion

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.25

Lose

-50

My first tip of Royal Ascot 2025 and NAP of Day 1 comes in the form of ROSALLION at 9/4. Lead Artist beat my pick in the Lockinge but had the benefit of a run already this season and will do well to overcome C Keane’s 5% SR (A/E 0.42) on runners carrying 8-13 to 9-3 here, meanwhile Notable Speech finished a short head behind Rosallion that day and didn’t really have any excuses. Dancing Gemini is getting a jockey downgrade from R Moore and Camelot’s awful 4% SR (A/E 0.36) at Ascot tempers enthusiasm further. I struggle to make a case for the remainder so the jolly could just win by default as well as on merit in the Queen Anne; he won the St James’s Palace here last year and you’d expect him to be primed for this. The son of Blue Point is a multiple Gr1 winner, will appreciate the quick ground, has a top jockey booking in S Levey and plenty of positive stats to boot; most notable being his owner’s 52% SR (A/E 1.31) with favourites in June and BP’s 5/9 record (A/E 1.69) with favs over a mile.
2 members found this comment useful
14 June 2025
16:10 4:10 York

Rikki Tiki Tavi

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Win

20

K Ryan’s 3/11 record (A/E 2.67) with Bungle Inthejungle debutants is enough for me to side with RIKKI TIKI TAVI here. A £65k purchase for a yard who won this last year, they’re operating at a 15% SR (A/E 1.29) with 2yo’s this season so 9/1 each way looks a decent play.
15:50 3:50 Sandown

Desert Heart

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

14/1 looks a solid each way price for the twice-raced DESERT HEART. The 3yo by Oasis Dream finished 10.5l before Cosmic Year on debut in September last year and made a decent enough reappearance run at Yarmouth LTO behind Roman Centurion (who I’ve tipped for the previous contest). I’m not overly convinced by the step up in trip, and this could just be a ploy to get a lower handicap mark, but I think he’ll go off much shorter should RC win. The E Walker yard form is another positive (20% SR, A/E 1.24 over the past month).
1 member found this comment useful
15:35 3:35 York

Marchogion

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@11.00

Lose

-50

10/1 with 6 places on offer is a price I can’t resist with MARCHOGION. The son of Mehmas made a smart return to the turf LTO at Newmarket, winning by 1l on rattling-fast ground. He’s up 7lb for that effort but I think that there’s more to come from the 3yo, he’s got a positive draw in stall 4, a top + blue FlatStats rating to boot plus the A Balding yard are in fine form (26% SR, A/E 1.31 over the past fortnight).
3 members found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 Sandown

Roman Centurion

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@5.50

Void

0

I really like the look ROMAN CENTURION at 9/2 here. The gelding by Iffraaj won on reappearance in a maiden at Yarmouth last month before putting in a solid 3.25l 4th of 10 on handicap debut at Newbury. The 3rd that day has since gone on to lose by a nose and 6th won NTO so the form is stacking up plus the drop back to 7f looks a positive. J Ryan’s 30% SR (A/E 1.4) with fancied sprinters is another reason for optimism.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 York

El Cordobes

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-50

I understand why people are backing Absurde in the feature at York this afternoon but Fastnet Rock’s 17% SR (A/E 0.5) with favourites in June makes his son easy enough to oppose. Al Qareem is an old favourite of mine but the market leader is 2lb better off than their matchup at Chester LTO and while it’s hard to put a line through Alkasib I just think that EL CORDOBES could be open to any amount of improvement now up in trip. The son of Frankel wintered over in Meydan, coming runner-up on both starts, and made a winning reappearance on UK shores at Newmarket last month. That was only a handicap but he blew the field apart a furlong from home and ran through the line to suggest that a longer trip will suit him nicely. The 4yo was forced to make the running LTO in the Aston Park Stakes and finished 3l 3rd of 7 but he’s got AQ to set the fractions today and Godolphin’s 16% SR (A/E 1.78) with outsiders coming down in class is another reason for optimism. 4/1 taken.
14:10 2:10 Chester

Rosenpur

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@SP

Lose

-50

M Tabti is a bit of an anomaly given his general 42% SR (A/E 1.24) on favourites but 1/10 record (A/E 0.32) on favourites in the summer, and that makes Moonstone Boy easy to oppose. Copper Knight has been a grand old servant for connections however D Fentiman’s 3% SR (A/E 0.4) on runners carrying 8-12 to 9-0 is enough to put me off him, meanwhile Balon D’or is 0/7 when at or above his current mark. ROSENPUR is a highly consistent sort and I think can be chanced at 5/1; the J Candlish-trained gelding is 0/9 on turf but has finished close on multiple occasions, including his last two starts over C&D which both came in May. He should be winning off this sort of mark and Pour Moi’s 18% SR (A/E 1.56) in June adds further confidence.
13 June 2025
16:10 4:10 York

See That Storm

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-50

Burrito has to be opposed here given his damning draw in stall 10 plus the Gosden’s 19% SR (A/E 0.44) with Lope De Vega favourites. Next up SEE THAT STORM makes the most appeal against; the son of Storm The Stars made a successful reappearance at Redcar last month to make it four successive wins before being touched off by a nose over the same C&D a few weeks later. He’s been bumped up 4lb for that but I'm not convinced that a mark of 94 is his ceiling given the gelding’s progressive nature and a positive draw in stall 1 today will make life easier. C Rodriguez is a jockey you’ve always got to keep on side in C1-3 races (26% SR, A/E 1.26 when fancied) and E Bethell’s 34% SR (A/E 1.33) with fancied runners on good to firm is another string to their bow. 9/2 taken.
09 June 2025
19:00 7:00 Windsor

Rosario

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@15.00

Lose

-50

I can’t be having Regal Envoy or Change Sings here; the former has to shoulder W Knight’s 9% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners when the jockey has 5 mounts that day, meanwhile E Johnson Houghton doesn’t produce decent 5f sprinters (12% SR, A/E 0.46 when fancied). Handicap debutant Miraculous has it all to do off a mark of 99 IMO and I’m not convinced that Miss Attitude is up to winning at this level on evidence of her previous starts. I think an each way play is the way and the one that catches my eye the most is ROSARIO at 14/1. The son of Harry Angel comes out top + blue FlatStats rated and is a consistent sort, winning on his penultimate start at Goodwood. He only beat one home over 6f LTO at Newbury but still only lost by 3.75l and is back down to his preferred 5f today off an unchanged mark. The R Teal yard are having a fantastic season so far (23% SR, A/E 1.85), you’ve got to pay attention when they book C Fallon (22% SR, A/E 1.65) and Teal’s 28% SR (A/E 2.12) with 5f sprinters in C1-3 races adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
08 June 2025
16:45 4:45 Goodwood

Hamish

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@2.10

Win

55

I’m fully respecting of Bolster here however Invincible Spirit don’t tend to appreciate Goodwood (8% SR, A/E 0.63) and I’m not convinced that his son will take to 12f given the sire’s 9% SR (A/E 0.66) over this trip. Lady Bamford does poorly with runners over this trip also (9% SR, A/E 0.46) so I’m not convinced that Palladium will be able to replicate his exploits overseas nor from over hurdles, meanwhile Fastnet Rock offer little value over 12f (9% SR, A/E 0.57) nor do they appreciate the course (7% SR, A/E 0.51) so I’m not expecting much from Military Academy. I can’t make a case for the remaining couple so HAMISH could just win by default as well as on merit. We know that he’ll relish the ground (56% SR on similar going), he’s a multiple Gr3 winner and won comfortably on his final start of 2024 in a listed contest at the Curragh. The son of Motivator always goes well fresh (7/9, A/E 2.4 when 57+ days) and is 4/4 (A/E 2.1) when going off favourite. 11/10 taken.
1 member found this comment useful
07 June 2025
18:15 6:15 Doncaster

Pantile Warrior

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Win

12

I’m not expecting the blinkers to aid Anniversary at all here given Sea The Moon’s poor 7% SR (A/E 0.44) with their use. Half-brother to the favourite, Way Of Stars, is another you can oppose due to A Balding’s 6% SR (A/E 0.41) with his progeny, meanwhile J Boyle is having a torrid season so far (5% SR, A/E 0.43) so I couldn’t have much faith in Many Men returning to winning ways. C Johnston does awful with handicap debutants (9% SR, A/E 0.6) so Pole Star shouldn’t be competitive, but PANTILE WARRIOR could improve to no end with the hood given how well the Gosden’s utilise the headgear (28% SR, A/E 1.31) and looks worth a chance at 15/2 (each way). The son of Frankel has been relatively disappointing so far with one win and three 2nds from seven starts but he’s no forlorn hope and the booking of B De La Sayette is a positive given his 20% SR (A/E 1.4) on pear-shaped courses.
1 member found this comment useful
16:15 4:15 Epsom Downs

Torcello

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Lose

-50

I’m going to take a wild swing on the old boy here in TORCELLO at 40/1 with 5 places on offer. The veteran by Born To Sea is a course winner, coming on his only start here back in 2019 on heavy ground and it looks as though he’ll get soft ground today. He absolutely thrives under these conditions (33% SR, A/E 2.55 on good to soft or worse) and the trip is of no concern (28% SR, A/E 2.5 in the UK) plus he won on reappearance last season, albeit in a lower grade. The gelding isn’t the most consistent but is running off his lowest mark for a few years to make life easier and a number of positive stats boost claims; most notable being S Lycett’s 24% SR (A/E 1.78) with runners keeping to the same trip and D Gilbert’s 21% SR (A/E 1.84) with Irish-born runners.
1 member found this comment useful
15:50 3:50 Musselburgh

City Of God

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Lose

-50

I’d make CITY OF GOD much shorter than 15/2 for the feature at Musselburgh today and that makes him a decent each way play. Regalian has to overcome his owner’s 10% SR (A/E 0.49) with geldings, meanwhile Zarathos carries a poor FlatStats rating with plenty of negative stats to boot; most damning being D Cunha’s 4% SR (A/E 0.44) with runners coming up in trip. C Johnston’s 6% SR (A/E 0.43) with runners over 9f puts me off Thunder Wonder but a strong case can be made for COG; the colt by Kodiac showed plenty of promise on the AW over the winter, winning on 2nd start and finishing runner-up on his next two. He was then given a few months off before returning in a C2 handicap at Haydock where he ran well enough but looked a touch rusty. The 3yo should come on for the run, the step up in trip should suit here given the sire’s 3/8 record (A/E 2.25) over C&D and S James brings a superb 36% SR (A/E 1.49) at Musselburgh when riding for the K Burke team.
1 member found this comment useful
15:30 3:30 Epsom Downs

Delacroix

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.50

Lose

-50

This may be the most competitive Derby in years, but I still think that the A O’Brien team hold all the cards with DELACROIX. It has to be noted that R Moore has chosen the son of Dubawi over The Lion In Winter, with the latter being 1lb superior on official ratings, so they must think that Delacroix has any amount of improvement over this trip. He’s unbeaten so far this season, winning by more than 2l in both the Ballysax on reappearance and in the Derby trial over the same C&D. The 3yo looked to have plenty of running left over the 10f so the step up 12f doesn’t concern me, the O’Brien yard are operating at a huge 40% SR (A/E 1.37) over in the UK so far this season, they’re 6/8 (A/E 1.44) with favourites over here and the owners’ 44% SR (A/E 1.62) with fancied runners coming up in trip provides even further confidence. 5/2 taken.
1 member found this comment useful
13:35 1:35 Epsom Downs

Ice Max

Daily Racing

25 EWNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 11.00 used instead of 8.50 takenBOG

@11.00

Win

25

Both Docklands and Persica are easy to oppose here in the Diomed; the former has ousted Persica from market leadership however he now has to overcome Massaat’s 15% SR (A/E 0.39) with favourites in stakes’ races and same SR (A/E 0.41) with favs going left-handed. The latter looks to me like he needs at least 10f and for some reason he’s being dropped to 8.5f so I’m expecting him to run out of time. I think you can take an each way price here and while he’s short enough I like the look of ICE MAX at 15/2; the son Dark Angel looked like he needed the run on reappearance at Sandown in April and it also came on his less favourable good ground. There looks to be plenty of rain around today so I’m expecting some ease in the surface and K Burke’s 26% SR (A/E 1.41) for Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum provides further optimism.
1 member found this comment useful
06 June 2025
18:20 6:20 Bath

Proof

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-50

Secret Santa is far too short here. Owner J Wood holds an awful 4% SR (A/E 0.43) in C1-3 races on turf and R Hannon an even worse 2% SR (A/E 0.17) with Ballylinch Stud-bred horses. Proof has been fairly loveless in the market but that makes his price more appealing to me at 11/2. The Zoustar colt outran his huge odds (18/1 SP) at Salisbury on debut last month (1.25l 2nd of 9) with the 3rd going on to win her next race. I’d fully expect a more rounded display today, he’s got an extra 160 yards to fully get into stride, a top + blue FlatStats rating to boot, the C Hills team are finally starting to get rolling (3/15, A/E 1.3 over the past fortnight) and generally speaking the owners are fairly underbet (16% SR, A/E 1.47).
17:10 5:10 Epsom Downs

Rhoscolyn

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@5.00

Lose

-50

Miss Information has to be taken on here given Blue Point’s 20% SR (A/E 0.49) with favourites going left handed. Next up RHOSCOLYN makes the most appeal against at 4/1; the Territories gelding is 2/2 over C&D including last years’ renewal and the 2021. He’s running off the same mark as last years’ and you can take a kind view on his runs so far this season given they’ve all come on good going and he’s shown to be more effective with some cut in the ground. The 7yo has got that here, he’s 2/6 (A/E 2.79) when having a quick return to the track (within a week) and a multitude of positive stats for The Horse Watchers adds further confidence; most notable being their 31% SR (A/E 1.54) with fancied runners in C1-3 races, a 36% SR (A/E 1.44) on fancied sprinters and 31% SR (A/E 1.46) when you add those two together.
16:35 4:35 Epsom Downs

Two Tempting

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Lose

-50

He’s been on the drift a tad this morning but I’m sticking but TWO TEMPTING here. Mirsky is a windy enough fav given J Blackburn’s 6% SR (A/E 0.48) in the summer, meanwhile Flight Plan is probably carrying too much weight. C Grassick’s 10% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied 4yo’s makes Ebt’s Guard short enough and Mr Baloo carries a poor FlatStats rating so is likely to offer little value. He might not be a big price but 15/2 looks a fair each way play for TT off his highest ever mark; the son of New Bay won this race last year, albeit off a 13lb lower mark, and you won’t have any concerns as to whether he’ll take to the undulations of Epsom. He must be a brilliant horse to own given his career 23% SR and he added another to the list at Chester LTO, taking strong support and winning by 3/4l. The front two pulled 3l clear of the 3rd so was clearly a smart effort(s), TT carries a top + blue FlatStats rating plus NB’s 22% SR (A/E 1.31) on stiff tracks adds further confidence.
15:15 3:15 Epsom Downs

Mutaawid

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-50

My marginally strongest fancy of the day comes in the form of MUTAAWID at 9/2. Defiance needs to overcome Camelot’s awful 1/44 record (A/E 0.16) at Epsom, meanwhile G Boughey’s 9% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied runners wearing cheek pieces puts me of Botanical. Rathgar has a number of negatives to overcome; most notable being his owners’ 5% SR (A/E 0.39) on Fridays and Ulysses’ 4% SR (A/E 0.31) with runners carrying up to 8-11 and I struggle to make a case for the remainder. Mutaawid ran well enough on seasonal appearance at Goodwood (5.5l 5th of 11) before demolishing the field at Newmarket, winning by the mere 6l. The son of Frankel has been hiked 10lb up handicap but I don’t think that this is his ceiling given his level of consistency, the Gosden yard are in decent enough form (29% SR, A/E 1.18 over the past fortnight) and J Crowley brings a 21% SR (A/E 1.3) on runners wearing blinkers.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.

By using this site you confirm you are 18+ and consent to our use of cookies and processing of personal data as set out in our Privacy Policy
Got it!