CalFergie
Predominantly stick to C1-3 races on the flat. Use stats and systems alongside form to find selections. Some tips are based on market support so follow my Twitter handle for updates - @CalFergie
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CalFergie's Tips History
22 April 2025
15:20 3:20 Epsom Downs
Master Builder
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.25
Lose
-50
An absolute deluge of positive favourite stats make MASTER BUILDER easy to back at 9/4 here. Included is Mastercraftsman’s 51% SR (A/E 1.53) with runners over long distances coming down in class, W Buick’s 63% SR (A/E 1.88) over LD trips when his mount finished 7th or worse LTO, his 53% SR (A/E 1.64) when riding for D Menuisier and also the trainer’s 52% SR (A/E 1.44) on stiff + undulating courses such as Epsom. The 4yo is fairly lightly raced with just 7 appearances under his belt; he’s been successful twice, including on good ground at Haydock, and has also placed on a couple of occasions. Things didn’t pan out for him when last seen in the November handicap; they went awful fast in the early part of the race and finished at a crawl on soft ground so I’m willing to chance the gelding off an unchanged mark. He carries a lofty top + blue FlatStats rating to boost claims further.
Subtotal-50
21 April 2025
16:15 4:15 Redcar
Boy Douglas
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@5.50
Lose
-50
My play in the feature at Redcar this afternoon comes in the form of BOY DOUGLAS at 9/2. Rhythm Master will do well to overcome G Harker’s 13% SR (A/E0.44) with favourites in 4yo+ races, meanwhile the M Appleby yard have had a torrid AW season (again) and are just 1/28 (A/E 0.29) over the past month. They don’t usually have theirs wound up for the spring so I don’t expect things to pick up quite yet so Grabajabba can be opposed also. Barley could prove to be the fly in the ointment but D Allan has been on the decline for a number of years now and is just 2/38 (A/E 0.49) so far this season. Magna Grecia brings a few negatives for Cadarn to overcome; most notably a 3% SR (A/E 0.3) on straight courses and I can’t make cases for the outsiders so BD looks the obvious choice. The son of New Bay isn’t the most consistent but was 1l runner up on reappearance last season and has only been tried once at this level. NB brings a deluge of positives; most notably a 36% SR (A/E 1.32) with fancied runners coming up in class.
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16:05 4:05 Kempton
Supreme King
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.50
Lose
-50
Metaverse carries a poor FlatStats rating here and Starspangledbanner’s awful 3% SR (A/E 0.3) with runners trained in the south makes his son easy to oppose. Next up SUPREME KING makes the most appeal against at 9/2; the gelding trained by P Evans has been in solid form all winter, accumulating a couple of wins (one over 6f here at Kempton) and a couple of places from six starts. This is a step up in class and trip off the highest rating he’s had for a couple of years, but the son of Kingman has been finishing his races off strongly enough to suggest that he’ll handle it. R Ryan’s 32% SR (A/E 1.26) on fancied 5yo’s is another reason for optimism.
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Subtotal-100
19 April 2025
15:35 3:35 Musselburgh
Aimeric
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 8.50 used instead of 8.00 takenBOG
@8.50
Win
12
My sole selection for Saturday comes in the form of AIMERIC at 7/1 (4 places). I wouldn’t be as bold as to go win-only because the son of Frankel is carrying top weight and at least 4lb more than the rest of the field, but he holds a 67% SR (A/E 2.22) when carrying 9-4+ in handicaps, is unbeaten off a break (3/3, A/E 2.6), holds a 57% SR (A/E 1.65) on good ground and is clearly the class act in the race. He ran a solid enough race behind Al Aasy (3.25l 4th of 5) in a Gr3 at Goodwood last season and went close on four of his five goes at listed level, three of which coming for the K Burke yard. The 6yo’s last win came in a handicap at Lingfield (turf) in May where he couldn’t have found life much easier, so I’m hoping that the drop back into this sphere will help him get his head in front again. Burke’s 36% SR (A/E 1.32) with fancied Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum runners is another reason for optimism.
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Subtotal12
18 April 2025
16:42 4:42 Newcastle
Roaring Legend
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.00
Lose
-50
ROARING LEGEND has been fruitful to follow this season and I see no reason to abandon him today at 3/1. Plage De Havre has come in for support but the step up to 16.5f is a question mark especially given A Balding’s 11% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied runners over the trip, meanwhile M Bell holds a poor record at Newcastle (14% SR, A/E 0.48 when fancied) which makes Duke Of Oxford easy to oppose. Wonder Legend is the biggest danger in my eyes but he’s running off his highest-ever mark and has only raced once over 2 miles, coming off a 4lb lower mark. I can’t make a case for the double-digit runners so it just makes sense to stick with the jolly who’s yet to lose for the H Palmer yard (3/3). The son of Roaring Lion couldn’t have won those contests much easier and has clearly taken the step up to this level in his stride; he’s got top weight to burden for that but I’m not sure we’ve seen his ceiling yet. He’s got a positive draw, top + blue FlatStats rating plus Palmer’s 62% SR (A/E 1.75) with 5yo favs in handicaps to boost claims.
16:30 4:30 Chelmsford City
Andesite
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
My only play at Chelmsford this afternoon comes in the form of ANDESITE at 12/1 each way. I understand why Sky Majesty is market leader, however Blue Point tend to hate Chelmsford (6% SR, A/E 0.31) and W Haggas’s 16% SR (A/E 0.49) over 6f here adds even less confidence. Juddmonte do pretty poorly with their geldings on the AW (15% SR, A/E 0.37 when fancied) which makes Jouncy short enough, meanwhile Sayidah Dariyan carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside W Buick’s poor 7% SR (A/E 0.46) on moderately-fancied runners on the AW. The rest all carry red FS ratings too, so are unlikely to offer much value, but Andesite was a debut winner in a C2 novice event at York last may and was thrown into Gr2 NTO and probably couldn’t cope with the heat. The son of Pinatubo may not take to the Polytrack but he looks worth a chance at this level, especially given Clipper Logisitic’s impressive 41% SR (A/E 1.71) with 3yo’s over 6f.
15:35 3:35 Newcastle
Marshman
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
Heathcliff needs to be taken on here given J Fanshawe’s 14% SR (A/E 0.43) with favourites in April on the AW (0/8 when C1-3) and D Egan’s 11% SR (A/E 0.28) on favourites carrying up to 8-11. Fivethousandtoone has to overcome T Easterby’s 7% SR (A/E 0.32) with fancied runners in C1-3 races, meanwhile the C Cox yard are yet to get rolling this spring (1/15, A/E 0.31) which puts me off Diligent Harry. I can pick holes in the remainder but old friend MARSHMAN should be incredibly competitive now back in handicap company after failing to get a clear run in the Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster last month. The son of Harry Angel had been thriving on the AW this winter, notching up a C2 handicap win over C&D, a listed success at Lingfield and 1/2l 2nd in the same sphere at Southwell. HA’S 38% SR (A/E 2.0) with runners trained in Middleham provides further cause for optimism and 6/1 looks value.
15:15 3:15 Lingfield
Westmorian
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@7.00
Win
180
WESTMORIAN looks a bit of a dirty each way play here at 6/1 with 4 places. Cajetan has a negative jockey booking in E Greatrex with his 7% SR (A/E 0.44) in C1-3 races on the AW, meanwhile Silky Wilkie has to overcome S James’s 3% SR (A/E 0.28) on 6yo’s. WM is in search of a hat trick after wins at Southwell; he finished 1/2l 2nd before those on reappearance at Newcastle so is clearly in fine fettle and is worth his chance at this level. G Tuer brings a superb 40% SR (A/E 1.59) on fancied runners coming up in class and O Stammers’ a 40% SR (A/E 1.69) on fancied runners when the trainer only has a couple of runners that day.
14:40 2:40 Lingfield
Dingle
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Win
330
I’m having a couple of plays at Lingfield today, starting with DINGLE at 11/1 (4 places). The J Camacho-trained gelding carries a top + blue FlatStats rating, just above Dembe who’s got to shoulder Garswood’s 10% SR (A/E 0.42) with fancied runners coming up in class. Dragon Icon is a windy enough fav given he’s 0/7 when at or above his current handicap mark plus 0/4 at this level, meanwhile Blue Prince has a deluge of negatives for Blue Point to overcome; most notable being his 10% SR (A/E 0.33) with fancied runners coming up in trip. Dingle is 0/6 at C3 level on the AW but if you dig in a bit deeper he’s gone well on all of those starts and placed on 3 occasions. He won at Kempton LTO, albeit in a lower grade, but a neck defeat at this level over C&D off a 1lb higher mark in March suggests he’ll go well again today.
13:50 1:50 Newcastle
Hello Zaman
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@9.00
Lose
-50
I’d make HELLO ZAMAN much shorter for this and that makes 8/1 easy to back with 4 places on offer. So Darn Hot is taking up an excessive amount of the market share given K Philippart De Foy’s awful 1/12 record (A/E 0.18) with favs on straight courses and So Darn Hot’s 19% SR (A/E 0.46) with favs in handicaps on the AW. Everything is an each way price against the jolly and HZ could be coming in here off a lenient opening mark of 87; he was last seen finishing behind eventual Greenham Stakes 4th Diablo Rojo last month and finished ahead of Gallant who ran well in defeat at HQ on Wednesday (5.5l 4th of 10). J Tate does well enough with handicap debutants on the AW, albeit not spectacular, but his charge is open to further progress and C Lee is a positive booking given his 33% SR (A/E 1.52) when riding for the yard.
Subtotal310
17 April 2025
15:35 3:35 Newmarket
Anno Domini
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.88
Lose
-50
Treble Tee has to be opposed here given his poor FlatStats rating plus S Crisford’s 23% SR (A/E 0.5) with favourites in April and 19% SR (A/E 0.44) with favs in spring on their first run of the year. He’s been on the drift a bit but next up ANNO DOMINI won twice as a 2yo and was also tried at Gr1 level so clearly holds potential. The latter came on soft ground over a mile and it looked to stretch the son of New Bay too far so the drop back to 7f is a positive on quicker ground and down in class. He comes out miles clear on FlatStats ratings and plenty of positive fancied stats boost claims further; most notable being W Buick’s huge 58% SR (A/E 1.97) on NB progeny and the sires’ 32% SR (A/E 1.42) in C1-3 races on turf. 15/8 taken.
Subtotal-50
16 April 2025
17:20 5:20 Newmarket
Fahrenheit Seven
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@8.00
Lose
-50
You’re only getting 2 places here but FAHRENHEIT SEVEN can be chanced at 7/1. Fifty Nifty is probably the right fav but he’s a T Clover runner in spring on reappearance so I’ve got to oppose, meanwhile Miss Information carries a poor FlatStats rating and is unlikely to offer much value. While Ten Pounds is 3/5 over this trip H Charlton runners over 7f are wildly overbet (9% SR, A/E 0.47) so his charge is probably short enough and Jumby’s best days are probably behind him (hasn’t won since June 2023). I can’t make a case for the remaining couple but FS appeals given he’s race fit with a 1.25l 3rd of 7 at Newcastle in March and neck success at Pontefract 8 days ago. Connections are upping him a couple of furlongs but he’s unexposed at this trip with just a 1.25l 3rd of 9 at Doncaster to his record and his previous runs suggest he’ll relish the extra distance. A Farragher’s 18% SR (A/E 1.61) on Wednesdays boosts claims further.
14:15 2:15 Beverley
Azure Angel
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@SP
Void
0
It’s a late one but AZURE ANGEL should be able to beat Trilby here. The latter carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside Twilight Son’s awful 3% SR (A/E 0.17) with fancied 5yo’s plus S England’s 2% SR (A/E 0.19) on uphill tracks. AA runs for E Bethell for the FT and the trainer holds a superb 44% SR (A/E 2.47) with yard debutants. The Harry Angel mare is fairly unexposed on turf but has shown plenty of ability on the AW with four wins from eight starts and the step back into C3 handicap company from a listed contest at Newcastle LTO is an obvious positive. C Rodriguez holds a superb 26% SR (A/E 1.28) on fancied runners in C1-3 races and Bethell’s 35% SR (A/E 1.54) with fancied runners returning off 57+ days away is another string to the bow. 5/2 taken.
13:50 1:50 Newmarket
Belgrave
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@13.00
Lose
-50
I think BELGRAVE is worth an each way punt in the opener at HQ today at 12/1 (4 places. Double Rush can be opposed given his owner’s 19% SR (A/E 0.47) with Irish-born favourites, meanwhile Al Misbar has to overcome Blue Point’s 8% SR (A/E 0.45) with runners coming down in trip. Wathnan Racing bring a deluge of negative stats for Defence Minister; most notable being their 0/17 record with runners returning off 150+ days away and awful 1/31 record (A/E 0.12) with fancied runners on undulating courses. Gallant carries a poor FlatStats rating and T Clover doesn’t tend to have his runners fully fit in spring which puts me off Invictus Gold. This looks set up for a double digit price and the R Beckett-trained 3yo makes the most sense to me; the son of Havana Grey finished runner-up twice before blowing the field apart (4.25l) on his final appearance at Leicester last year. That came on soft ground so he’ll likely appreciate conditions, he’s got a great draw in stall 1 (low best) and HG’s 22% SR (A/E 1.29) with runners in spring provides further confidence.
Subtotal-100
14 April 2025
15:35 3:35 Pontefract
Forceful Speed
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@9.00
Win
15
I found it simple to put a line through the market principles in the feature at Pontefract this afternoon. M Botti rarely has one ready in the spring and his 1/11 record (A/E 0.29) with favourites in April proves this which puts Calumet up against it, meanwhile Qitaal has to overcome J Fanning’s 9% SR (A/E 0.43) on fancied 6yo’s. Ocean Of Dreams can’t be trusted given he’s raced just four times and didn’t look like the step up in trip will aid today after a poor reappearance run in the Spring Mile. FORCEFUL SPEED appeals to me with his 2/3 C&D record, 63% SR on similar going and reappearance run behind him; he beat just one rival home at Kempton over 11f last month but has shown previously that he needs that first outing to blow off the cobwebs. The son of New Bay is dropping back in trip today and a number of positive stats boost claims; most notable being Amo Racing’s 36% SR (A/E 1.68) at Pontefract, NB’s 31% SR (A/E 1.63) at the course too along with his 14% SR (A/E 1.4) with runners who finished 7th or worse LTO. 8/1each way taken.
Subtotal15
13 April 2025
18:45 6:45 Musselburgh
Our Havana
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Win
225
I think New Image can be taken on here given D O’Meara’s awful 14% SR (A/E 0.43) with favourites over 7f at Musselburgh and next up OUR HANAVA makes appeal at 9/2. The son of Havana Gold has thrown in stinking efforts on his last couple of starts on turf but I’m willing to forgive him as he probably just doesn’t like the hustle and bustle of a big field handicap. He won at HQ in a lower grade a year ago and ran well in defeat on his previous two starts so he should enjoy himself here. B Garritty’s 29% SR (A/E 1.27) on fancied runners keeping to the same class provides further confidence.
17:45 5:45 Musselburgh
Chesneys Charm
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@23.00
Win
85
I like the look of CHESNEYS CHARM’S couple of races on the turf in October last year and can chance him at 22/1 (each way). The son of Mohaather has won a few times and place once on the AW, albeit in a lower grade, but it’s his 3.75l 4th of 10 at York and 4l 3rd of 4 at Doncaster that suggest to me he’s no forlorn hope today. He’s got the benefit of a run already this year under his belt whereas the rest don’t apart from the jolly Marhaba Ghaiyyath; the latter looks far too short given J Fanning’s 8% SR (A/E 0.38) over 9f at Musselburgh plus C Johnston’s awful 1/8 record (A/E 0.36) with favourites over this trip.
16:15 4:15 Musselburgh
Clear Force
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@1.83
Lose
-50
Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum’s huge 73% SR (A/E 1.83) with unraced favourites over sprint trips plus his 51% SR (A/E 1.29) with Irish-born favourites makes CLEAR FORCE really easy to back here at 5/6.
Subtotal260
12 April 2025
18:10 6:10 Thirsk
Baltic
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
The second C Rodriguez mount I like the look of this evening is BALTIC at 5/1. Majestic Warrior is far too short given his poor FlatStats rating and Churchill’s 18% SR (A/E 0.49) with favourites coming up in class, meanwhile Lady La Fay’s FS rating isn’t much better and she has to shoulder Camelot’s 10% SR (A/E 0.45) with fancied runners in 4yo+ races. Arrange could prove to be the fly in the ointment but Baltic looks suited to a steadily run contest like he should get today and just gets the nod over the mare. The son of Frankel is 4/5 over this trip, 5/7 with cheekpieces and while this is his first go at this level he’s shown enough ability with 5 wins on the spin during the middle part of his career. Rodriguez’s 34% SR (A/E 1.33) on fancied runners over long trips and 25% SR (A/E 1.27) on fancied runners in C1-3 races adds further confidence.
17:05 5:05 Thirsk
Paborus
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.25
Win
112
My NAP today comes in the form of PABORUS at 9/4. Mount Athos is vying for favouritism with the former, but he carries a poor FlatStats rating along with C Lee’s 7% SR (A/E 0.34) on Rabbah Bloodstock LTD-bred runners, meanwhile Northern Express is set for a poor season given M Dods’ 6% SR (A/E 0.46) with 7yo’s. Flight Plan’s FS rating is just as bad as MA’s, so he’s unlikely to offer much value, and P McDonald’s 5% SR (A/E 0.38) over 7f at Thirsk makes Array hard to side with. M Winn struggles on runners returning off a break (3% SR, A/E 0.32 when 57+ days) and Territories’ 1% SR (A/E 0.2) with outsiders sticking to the same trip tempers enthusiasm further. This just looks set up for the E Bethell-trained son of Recoletos who has shown plenty of scope. He’s raced just 5 times, accumulating 3 wins with a decent break coming between most of those runs. A number of positive favourite stats boost claims further; most notable being Bethell’s 54% SR (A/E 1.59) with class droppers and his huge 73% SR (A/E 2.33) when booking C Rodriguez with runners returning off 57+ days away.
15:12 3:12 Newbury
Great Acclaim
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Lose
-50
My big priced gamble of the day comes in the form of GREAT ACCLAIM at 25/1 with 4 places on offer. I really like the angle of E Johnson Houghton 4yo outsiders (15% SR, A/E 2.15) and this son of Aclaim has shown that he’s a hardy sort; notching up four wins and two places from ten outings last season. He’s 4/7 (A/E 3.99) over a mile on turf, including here at Newbury back in June, and while the gelding is rated 20lb higher today he’s been on an upward trajectory. The break doesn’t concern me given his reappearance run last year, Acclaim’s 20% SR (A/E 1.64) with progeny returning off 150+ days away and the trainer tends to have them ready in Spring for their first run of the year.
14:35 2:35 Newbury
Rashabar
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
He’s been on the drift but there’s so much appeal around RASHABAR in the Greenham. The son of Holy Roman Emperor was a shock winner of the Coventry last year (80/1 SP) but proved that that was no fluke when coming runner up in subsequent Gr1 starts in France. B Meehan won this race a couple of years back so knows how to ready one, he’s got a 14% SR (A/E 1.76) over 7f at Newbury, his colt has a positive draw in stall 10 plus a top + blue FlatStats rating to boot. 5/1 taken.
13:25 1:25 Newbury
Ancient Wisdom
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.75
Lose
-50
I don’t like Bellum Justum for the John Porter this afternoon; I’ve never warmed to the colt and King Power hold a poor 15% SR (A/E 0.44) with favourites in long distance races. Sunway holds bags of potential but he’s placed just twice from five starts at this level and has left plenty to be desired on his past couple of starts over this trip. You can argue that ANCIENT WISDOM has been something of an anomaly for the C Appleby yard, trying him over three different trips last season and only coming out successful once, but his most recent run in a Gr1 at Munich over 12f in November was promising and 11/4 seems fair. The son of legendary Dubawi had a phenomenal 2yo campaign, peaking with the Futurity at Doncaster and was far too keen on reappearance last season over an untried trip. He looked to be saved for another day in the Derby and connections were rewarded when dropping into a Gr3 at HQ NTO. The 4yo might want some cut in the ground but I’m willing to chance it given his top + blue FlatStats rating and Dubawi’s 37% SR (A/E 1.44) with French-born runners.
Subtotal-88
11 April 2025
16:45 4:45 Newbury
Hyperchromatic
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@10.00
Lose
-50
I think HYPERCHROMATIC is a touch overpriced here at 9/1 (each way). The M Botti-trained 3yo had a fairly fruitful juvenile campaign, picking up wins on his last couple of starts and running well in defeat on his first couple. He looks up to this level given the win in a C3 handicap at HQ in October and runner-up spot on debut in a C2 novice event at Yarmouth. A revised mark of 82 is probably about right and Holy Roman Emperor progeny tend to be ready for their first run back so the layoff doesn’t concern me. A number of positive outsider stats for the sire boost claims further; most notable being a 13% SR (A/E 2.24) in 3yo races and 8% SR (A/E 1.54) in C1-3 races.
Subtotal-50
10 April 2025
19:00 7:00 Newcastle
Jungle Land
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.00
Lose
-50
My initial selection for this is a NR but JUNGLE LAND makes plenty of appeal at head of the market. The low mileage son of Kodiac is in decent form with a win and 2nd at Wolvo since a break over the winter and a solid 1.25l 2nd of 9 at this level over C&D on just his 2nd start adds further confidence. G.Boughey brings a solid 28% SR (A/E 1.51) with Kodiac progeny.
William Dewhirst
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@9.50
Void
0
I really don’t understand why WILLIAM DEWHIRST is 17/2 (4 places) for the feature at Newcastle this evening. The son of Sioux Nation has been in fantastic form all AW season, accumulating 6 wins and a further place from 10 starts (all coming here at Newcastle), going close on the other 3 occasions. They went an absolute crawl LTO over C&D and he just lacked the pace to go with the favourite, losing by 1/2l. Running off an unchanged mark, albeit up in class, with a top + blue FlatStats rating and B Haslam’s 30% SR (A/E 1.46) with LTO runner-ups there’s no reason he won’t go well again today.
Subtotal-50
09 April 2025
18:40 6:40 Kempton
United Approach
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@5.00
Lose
-50
UNITED APPROACH looks a worthy favourite for the feature at Kempton at 4/1. The son of Fastnet Rock comes out top + blue FlatStats rated with a couple of positive fav stats to boost claims further; J Tate's 64% SR (A/E 1.61) over 7f at Kempton and B Loughnane's 50% SR (1.39) at Kempton in general. The 5yo goes well fresh and the yard are quiet but in decent form (3/11, A/E 1.46) so I see no reason as to why he won't give his running on Polytrack debut.
16:35 4:35 Nottingham
Al Qareem
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@1.80
Win
40
I wouldn’t usually be backing an odds-on shot but I can’t see a way in which AL QAREEM gets beat in the feature at Notingham this afternoon. The son of Awtaad holds by far the best form and that’s shown by being officially rated at least 10lb higher than the rest of the field. He’s got the benefit of a run 20 days ago; finishing 3l 3rd of 8 in listed contest at Saint-Cloud and should strip even fitter here. Carrying a top + blue FlatStats rating alongside K Burke’s 38% SR (A/E 1.41) with fancied runners when the jockey has 6 rides that day, 4/5 seems more than fair.
Subtotal-10
08 April 2025
16:07 4:07 Pontefract
Dark Cloud Rising
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.00
Win
300
Middleton View is easy to oppose here given his poor FlatStats rating, D Probert’s 8% SR
(A/E 0.34) on fancied runners who are his only mount that day and Opulence
Thoroughbreds' 6% SR (A/E 0.4) with fancied runners in C1-3 races. Fan Mail only
marginally comes out better on FS ratings than the jolly and the form of his two turf
starts last year leave plenty to be desired, meanwhile Cayman Tai will do well to
overcome J Leavy’s 8% SR (A/E 0.47) on runners coming down in class. DARK CLOUD
RISING has less mileage on the clock than most here and you can forgive his 10.75l
defeat when last seen in the Rockingham given the soft ground. He’d previously gone
close in a C3 novice event at Haydock (1.5l 3rd of 5) and won before that in a maiden at
Thirsk so I don’t think an opening mark of 85 is beyond the son of Dark Angel. The layoff
doesn’t concern me given DA’s 27% SR (A/E 1.28) with fancied runners returning off 150
days away and the quicker ground should aid his cause. 6/1 taken.
Subtotal300
06 April 2025
19:00 7:00 Southwell
Dividend
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 4.33 on 06/04 at 08:410.15 deduction for Tremolo@6.50 withdrawn at 19:03R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 3.33 x (1-0.15) = 3.83
@3.83
Win
141
Big Sip has to be opposed here given Cracksman’s 17% SR (A/E 0.34) with favourites in Spring and same SR (A/E 0.37) with favs in 3yo races. Tremolo carries a poor FlatStats rating plus the H Charlton yard are quiet of late (0/10 over the past month), meanwhile Ja’Marr carries the worst FS rating and will need to take a big step forward from his nursery wins at Dundalk last year. I can’t really make a case for the double-digit runners but DIVIDEND carries a top + blue FS rating along with top OR so looks the one to beat at 10/3. The colt by Kodiac is in search of a hat trick after successes at Kempton and Southwell respectively, both coming over a mile. The latter came off a 156-day break so was entitled to the run but you’d expect him to strip even fitter here. He’s up in class today but was tried at listed and C2 handicap company on the turf as a 2yo, so is clearly highly thought of, and a couple of positive stats for J Insole boost claims; a 21% SR (A/E 1.93) with 3yo’s and 20% SR (A/E 1.6) over middle-distance trips.
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16:20 4:20 Southwell
The Thames Boatman
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@26.00
Lose
-50
I can’t quite fathom THE THAMES BOATMAN being rank outsider at 25/1 here, especially with 4 places on offer. The son of Havana Grey runs his race more often than not and looks much more suited to the minimum trip than the 6f he’s been running over on his past couple of starts. His run over 5f at Lingfield in January (3/4l 2nd of 8) provides plenty of promise and he’s just a pound higher than his last win, coming in September. This is a drop in class for the 5yo, he’s been given 5 weeks off to freshen up, the R Hughes yard are in decent form (28% SR, A/E 1.39 over the past fortnight) and F Marsh brings a couple of positive outsider stats; a 8% SR (A/E 1.99) on runners carrying 9-4+ and 6% SR (A/E 1.84) on Tapeta.
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Subtotal91
02 April 2025
15:37 3:37 Musselburgh
Spartan Arrow
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.25
Lose
-50
I think SPARTAN ARROW is the right fav for the feature at Musselburgh this afternoon and 9/4 looks fair. Looking For Lynda has never placed off a break (0/4 when 57+ days away), meanwhile Paddy’s Day carries a poor FlatStats rating with the booking of A Jary who brings a 3% SR (A/E 0.27) when the trainer has a couple of runners at the meeting and 5% SR (A/E 0.44) on stiff tracks. Mares offer very little value when trained by T Barron (5% SR, A/E 0.4) which makes Profitable Edge hard to side with and A Waugh’s 3% SR (A/E 0.32) on moderately-fancied runners puts Eternal Sunshine up against it. All-in-all this looks set up for the jolly and the son of Sioux Nation will be fit enough to pounce given his two outings already this year. He clearly needed the run at Newcastle in February (8.5l 9th of 10) but put that firmly behind him when winning by a nose at Wolverhampton NTO. You’d expect further improvement from the 5yo here and a few stats boost claims; most notably SN’s 64% SR (A/E 1.5) with favs on stiff courses and 57% SR (A/E 1.65) with favs over 5f.
Subtotal-50
29 March 2025
15:35 3:35 Doncaster
Godwinson
Daily Racing
25 EW
@17.00
Win
480
My pick in the Lincoln this year comes in the form of GODWINSON at 16/1 (6 places). The W Haggas-trained 5yo has shown himself to be a hardy sort, albeit not the most consistent. He ran a huge race in defeat on seasonal appearance at Newbury last year (1/2l 2nd of 21) and finally added to his tally in August when winning at Goodwood. Both those runs came on good to soft, and his worst ones have probably come on soft, so I’m really hoping that the rain doesn’t come down too much at Doncaster, but the son of Saxon Warrior has a hugely positive draw in stall 3 plus a deluge of positive stats for trainer, owner and breeder boost claims further; most notable being W Haggas’s 28% SR (A/E 1.47) for the owner/breeder and the Aisbitt’s impressive 21% SR (A/E 1.46) on Saturdays.
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15:00 3:00 Doncaster
Point Lynas
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
There’s a handful of old favourites in the Doncaster Mile today which made this difficult. Botanical hasn’t lived up to expectations yet and his price looks skinny enough, meanwhile Dancing Gemini is yet to win over a mile plus Camelot’s 9% SR (A/E 0.41) with fancied runners in 4yo+ races and R Teal’s 11% SR (A/E 0.47) with fancied runners in Spring provide enough doubt. Liberty Lane I can leave alone given K Burke’s 10% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied runners when he’s got 6 runners at a meeting and Witch Hunter is 0/10 over this trip. I think it wise to side with an each way runner here and of those POINT LYNAS looks the classiest. The son of Iffraaj won twice from four starts last season, including on seasonal appearance at York. His final run was a listed success at Pontefract (5.5l) which he won doing cartwheels and his 2.25l 2nd of 13 in a Gr2 at Doha last month should have him ready for the drop back into listed company. E Bethell’s 25% SR (A/E 1.34) with milers is another reason for optimism. 9/1 taken.
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14:40 2:40 Kempton
Grey Cuban
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@12.00
Lose
-50
Mount Atlas has to be opposed here given Masar’s 1/10 record (A/E 0.2) with favourites over middle-distance trips and general 12% SR (A/E 0.25) with favs on the AW. O Murphy’s 11% SR (A/E 0.43) on Lope De Vega progeny makes Teumessias Fox hard to back, meanwhile Calumet has got a sizeable absence to overcome. C Bishop holds an awful 1/74 record (A/E 0.18) on horses wearing the hood which puts Balmacara up against it, but GREY CUBAN absolutely demolished the field on seasonal appearance last season (8l at Wolvo) so looks decent value at 11/1 (4 places). The gelding by Havana Grey won four from nine last year, the most notable being a C2 handicap at Doncaster in September. His run in the Old Rowley Cup was too bad to be true, only beating one home, and this looks a much more winnable prospect for the 4yo. H Palmer’s 23% SR (A/E 1.28) in 4yo+ races on the AW is another string to the bow.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Doncaster
Jamess Delight
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.00
Lose
-50
I think you’ve got to be siding with the jolly in the Cammidge Trophy. Marshman has become a favourite of mine, but mainly on the AW as he’s not won on the turf since his reappearance run in 2023, and K Burke’s awful 1/24 record (A/E 0.18) with fancied runners over 6f at Doncaster adds little confidence. The same can be said for stablemate Spycatcher, meanwhile Iberian has to take a big step up from his short-headed success in a conditions race at Southwell in December. You’re then getting into the bigger prices and I can’t make a solid case for any so JAMES’S DELIGHT just looks the obvious choice at 3/1. The son of Invincible Army really came forward as a 3yo, winning emphatically at Pontefract on seasonal appearance under awful conditions, adding to his tally at HQ and York in C2 handicaps before tasting listed success at Deauville. He ran well in Group company on both starts after before being put away so the drop back to listed level is a positive, the break is of no concern and there’s plenty of positive favourite stats to boost claims; most notably IA’s 71% SR (A/E 1.89) at northern courses.
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13:50 1:50 Doncaster
Promethean
Daily Racing
25 EW
@9.50
Lose
-50
8/1 for PROMETHEAN with 6 places on offer seems decent value IMO. You could’ve hoped for a better draw (low numbers perform the best) but there looks to be a huge amount of speed coming from stalls 7 to 12 so there’s a huge possibility of a pace collapse on that side. It should set up nicely for a closer, such as Promethean, and his run over 10f here back in September suggests that he’ll be staying on strongly at the finish. D Menuisier’s 31% SR (A/E 1.39) with fancied runners when he’s got a couple at the meeting and 30% SR (A/E 1.25) with fancied runners carrying 9-4+ provides further confidence.
Subtotal280
26 March 2025
19:00 7:00 Kempton
Mount Athos
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.00
Win
200
You can make cases for the front three in the market here but MOUNT ATHOS has taken this race two years in a row and is just 1lb higher than 2024's renewal. Roi De France is a horse I've followed closely, and is clearly full of potential, but he's 9lb higher than his last handicap run coming here at Kempton over a mile, beating again-today rival Popmaster by a short head. Heathcliff is 3/3 over C&D but looks far too short in the betting given his neck defeat to Golden Mind last month. MA Has the best C&D form of all (4/4) and took this race both times off a break. He's dropping back into handicap company after decent runs in Group 3 and listed level over in France, including a place and win from 5 starts. The son of Dark Angel carries a top + blue FlatStats rating with J Doyle's huge 54% SR (A/E 1.66) on the sire's fancied progeny adding further confidence. 7/2 taken.
Subtotal200
21 March 2025
19:00 7:00 Southwell
Legal Reform
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.50
Lose
-50
I think Blue Prince can be opposed here given his 0/8 record when at or above his current handicap mark plus Blue Point’s 13% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners over 7f (20% SR, A/E 0.51 when favourite). Next up LEGAL REFORM looks the biggest challenger in my eyes and 7/2 can be taken. The Lawman gelding is in search of a hat-trick after successive C&D wins, taking his record over 7f at Southwell to 5/12 (A/E 2.94). He’s got a 4lb penalty to carry today but is clearly worth his chance back at this level given he’s thriving of late.
Subtotal-50
20 March 2025
20:30 8:30 Newcastle
Arlington
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.50
Lose
-50
This is bottom of the barrel stuff but ARLINGTON is the only one in here with any sort of form and has actually won in the last 12 months. She’sashambles is aptly named given she’s 0/15 on the AW, carries an awful FlatSats rating and the booking of S James is a negative with his 10% SR (A/E 0.49) on fancied runners over 6f at Newcastle. Doon The Glen is a maiden from 24 starts and Magic Fluke will probably require just that given trainer J Jenkins’ 2% SR (A/E 0.26) on straight courses. Sadiiki’s FS rating isn’t much better than the other filly with W Pyle's 6% SR (A/E 0.49) on sole trainer runners that day and Land Force’s 2% SR (A/E 0.32) in stakes races tempering enthusiasm further. It’s easy to rule out Rockley Point and Secret Day so it looks set for the jolly to pounce. The son of Washington Dc won on his only start on standard/slow, coming here at Newcastle in August last year. He hasn’t won since but placed on three occasions, most recently over C&D losing out by 0.75l. B Smart’s 46% SR (A/E 1.67) with 4yo favs boosts claims. 5/2 taken.
19:00 7:00 Newcastle
Buzz Box
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@4.50
Void
0
Four horses are vying for market leadership in the feature at Newcastle this evening but of those BUZZ BOX makes the most appeal at 7/2. Miss Attitude carries a poor FlatStats rating, meanwhile Bergerac hasn't been seen since November and Kodi Bear’s 4% SR (A/E 0.42) with runners returning off 57+ days adds little confidence he’ll be race fit. Starspangledbanner tend to fall off a cliff at this time of year (4% SR, A/E 0.42 in March) which puts Paddy’s Day up against it so I think that the hat-trick seeking BB makes sense. The son of Adaay has had a brilliant winter campaign, peaking with back-to-back C&D wins and looks more than ready for the step up to this class. He beat a subsequent winner in Monks Dream by 1.25l earlier this month and probably had more left in the tank. The sires’ 18% SR (A/E 1.48) at Newcastle provides plenty of confidence and if he goes off favourite trainer B Smart brings a handful of positive stats; most notably a 46% SR (A/E 1.67) with 4yo’s.
Subtotal-50
19 March 2025
18:30 6:30 Southwell
Sovereign Sea
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.00
Lose
-50
Cracking Gold and SOVEREIGN SEA are vying for market leadership in the feature at Southwell this evening but I think that the latter makes more appeal. The C Cox yard have had a quiet start to the year with just 1 winner from 20 (A/E 0.24) and CG’s owners’ 5% SR (A/E 0.37) on the AW with milers suggests that they aren’t very good at sourcing them. SS, on the other hand, has shown plenty of ability on his three starts including a debut win Newcastle, short-headed 2nd at the same course and most recently a 1/2l defeat at Wolvo, all coming over a mile or extended mile. This is the son of Ten Sovereign’s handicap debut, a mark of 85 could just be underestimating him and Opulence Thoroughbreds’ bring a handful of positive stats to boost claims; most notably a huge 58% SR (A/E 1.61) with fancied milers and 31% SR (A/E 1.36) when the trainer has a sole runner at the meeting. 3/1 taken.
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Subtotal-50
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