CalFergie

DURHAM CASTLE has ousted Fast Track Harry from favouritism, and I really fancy the chances of the former. FTH comes out top on FlatStats rating, however R Hornby’s 10% SR (A/E 0.44) on fancied runners returning within 8 to 14 days plus owner J Smith’s 5% SR (A/E 0.3) in March makes his charge easy to oppose. Tuco Salamanca was shortlisted but I just fancy the more lightly raced jolly, meanwhile Change Sings needs to overcome E Johnson Houghton’s 2/51 record (A/E 0.3) with 6yo’s. You could perhaps looks for an each way play but it looks like DC should be winning by default as well as on merit; the gelding by Havana Grey is 3/6 in his career, all of which going off favourite. He’s got a lengthy absence to overcome (285 days) but Rabbah Racing’s 59% SR (A/E 1.44) with favourites at southern courses and HG’s 5/10 record (A/E 1.55) with 5yo favs more than negates the layoff. 5/2 taken.

Another jolly I fancy the chances off at Doncaster on Saturday is TURTY TREE. The son of New Bay showed plenty of potential when finishing runner-up in a mile novice at HQ in October and I’m expecting more now up in trip from the powerful A Balding yard. NB brings a few positive favourite stats to provide further confidence; a 51% SR (A/E 1.33) at Northern courses, 46% SR (A/E 1.44) in C1-3 races and 45% SR (A/E 1.28) with Irish-born runners. 11/8 taken.

SPYCATCHER should take all the beating here at 4/1. My Mate Alfie carries a negative draw in stall 6 plus poor FlatStats rating, meanwhile Montassib needs to reverse the form with SC from their C&D run in the Wentworth in November. Jasour needs to overcome owner Almohamediya’s 4% SR (A/E 0.32) on Saturdays and while I can make a case for James’s Delight, the jolly looks a more solid bet. He’s boosted by P-L Jamin’s 31% SR (A/E 1.48) on fancied runners in C1-3 races and 15% SR (A/E 1.63) on runners returning off 57+ days away.

I can’t be having Power Fizz here given Wootton Bassett’s 9% SR (A/E 0.36) with fancied runners coming down in trip (2/10, A/E 0.48 when fav). Sergeant Wilko will do well to overcome Bungle Inthejungle’s 11% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners coming down in class, meanwhile Wheels Of Fire’s last couple of runs coming on the AW left plenty to be desired. HOCKNEY has come in for support and 8/1 still looks decent value with 4 places on offer; the son of Showcasing sneaks in here at bottom weight (8-11) but a mark of 78 surely can’t be his ceiling after two comfortable victories on his last couple of starts. Both of those came after a wind op and I’m expecting him to be fully wound up today given T Dascombe’s 46% SR (A/E 1.54) with runners returning off 57+ days. The trainer’s 36% SR (A/E 1.51) with fancied runners carrying up to 8-12 plus 39% SR (A/E 1.81) with fancied ones when booking P-L Jamin adds further confidence.

Fast Track Harry can be opposed here given owner J Smith’s 14% SR (A/E 0.4) with favourites who ran 15 to 28 days ago plus 1/11 record (A/E 0.28) with fancied runners in March. Heavenly Heather carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside B McHugh’s 6% SR (A/E 0.29) on fancied runners in Spring, meanwhile Stratusnine needs to overcome Far Above’s 5% SR (A/E 0.47) on flat tracks. WE NEVER STOP has won and placed from three goes over 6f here at Newcastle and looks worthy of a chance at 6/1; the son of Cotai Glory was successful here in April last year off a 3lb higher mark and his first couple of runs this AW campaign were solid enough (1.25l 4th of 9 and 3.25l 7th of 13). I’m willing to forgive an underwhelming display at Kempton LTO given it was his first outing there and CG tend to struggle at the course, but this is a completely different proposition due to the sire’s 25% SR (A/E 1.51) with handicappers over 6f at Newcastle and 15% SR (A/E 1.52) with runners who finished 7th or worse LTO.

A nice early play for me tomorrow at Southwell, coming in the form of SEE BLUE at 9/4. Penny Time is weighed down by a deluge of negatives; most notably Mehmas’s 9% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied runners foaled in May and 12% SR (A/E 0.5) with fancied runners in C1-3 races, however Salgados could prove the fly in the ointment. Menzies will do well to overcome H Eustace’s 0/30 record with novices over middle distances plus Seattle Chief and the remainder (bar-Kokushoku) carry poor FlatStats rating and are unlikely to offer much value. This looks like the jolly could win by default as well as on merit, and the top + blue FS rated son of Blue Point can make it 2/2 after his break. The colt was fairly unimpressive on debut at Kempton in September but did show a decent attitude to run on for a short-headed success. R Hughes is a master on the AW and the yard have shown solid form over the past fortnight (36% SR, A/E 1.46) so you’d fully expect their charge to have filled his frame over the winter. Hughes’s 40% SR (A/E 1.92) over C&D is another reason for optimism.

The M Herrington team look to have a strong hand here and of those the market leader, DOWN TO THE KID, makes plenty of appeal at 7/4. The gelding by Pride Of Dubai has an exemplary ¾ record (A/E 2.97) over C&D (41% SR, A/E 2.23 over all trips at Southwell), with all three of those coming on his last four starts. He finished 1l 3rd of 9 when carrying a 4lb penalty on his penultimate start, but that was still a solid display at this level so looks worth a chance now upped back in class. There’s a deluge of positive favourite stats to boost claims further; most notable being Herrington’s 64% SR (A/E 1.78) at Southwell in March, J Hart’s 49% SR (A/E 1.33) on Fridays and POD’s 77% SR (A/E 2.13) at Midlands’ courses.

I’ve got to be taking on Nikovo here given Kingman’s 1/10 record (A/E 0.33) with 7yo favourites, 2/19 (A/E 0.36) with favs hailing from the East Midlands and the M Herrington yard form (2/28, A/E 0.54 over the past fortnight). Next up DOCTOR KHAN JUNIOR makes the most appeal against at 11/4; the top weight trained by G Oldroyd won LTO at Southwell (1/2l) off a 3lb lower mark, likes it here at Newcastle (2/5) and is 4/4 (A/E 4.38) over 7f on the AW when fancied in the market. A top + blue FlatStats rating to boot, Oldroyd and owners Bond Thoroughbred LTD bring a deluge of positive stats to boost claims further; most notably the trainer’s 53% SR (A/E 2.06) with fancied sprint geldings and BT’s 48% SR (A/E 1.85) with fancied geldings.

RICHIE’S ROCKET showed plenty of ability on his first couple of starts and looks worthy of a chance at listed level. Ten Carat Harry looks dangerous given his five handicap wins on the bounce, however this is a step back up to 7f where he looked stretched over the trip at Catterick last year and Ardad’s 4% SR (A/E 0.47) at this distant tempers enthusiasm further. Hilitany could prove the fly in the ointment given his Meydan stint but we don’t know whether he can translate that onto the AW so the safer bet looks C&D winner RR at 11/8. The colt by New Bay put in a fair performance on debut at HQ (4.25l 3rd of 15) only being beaten by the joint favs, before shedding his maiden tag by a whopping 9l in November. We’re yet to see if the form stacks up from those two outings but to win being eased down on 2nd start is highly impressive and the booking of H Crouch is a positive given his 56% SR (A/E 1.34) on favourites returning off 57+ days away and 49% SR (A/E 1.38) on favs when the trainer has just 2 runners that day.