CalFergie
Predominantly stick to C1-3 races on the flat. Use stats and systems alongside form to find selections. Some tips are based on market support so follow my Twitter handle for updates - @CalFergie
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CalFergie's Tips History
14 June 2025
16:10 4:10 York
Rikki Tiki Tavi
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Win
20
K Ryan’s 3/11 record (A/E 2.67) with Bungle Inthejungle debutants is enough for me to side with RIKKI TIKI TAVI here. A £65k purchase for a yard who won this last year, they’re operating at a 15% SR (A/E 1.29) with 2yo’s this season so 9/1 each way looks a decent play.
15:50 3:50 Sandown
Desert Heart
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
14/1 looks a solid each way price for the twice-raced DESERT HEART. The 3yo by Oasis Dream finished 10.5l before Cosmic Year on debut in September last year and made a decent enough reappearance run at Yarmouth LTO behind Roman Centurion (who I’ve tipped for the previous contest). I’m not overly convinced by the step up in trip, and this could just be a ploy to get a lower handicap mark, but I think he’ll go off much shorter should RC win. The E Walker yard form is another positive (20% SR, A/E 1.24 over the past month).
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15:35 3:35 York
Marchogion
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@11.00
Lose
-50
10/1 with 6 places on offer is a price I can’t resist with MARCHOGION. The son of Mehmas made a smart return to the turf LTO at Newmarket, winning by 1l on rattling-fast ground. He’s up 7lb for that effort but I think that there’s more to come from the 3yo, he’s got a positive draw in stall 4, a top + blue FlatStats rating to boot plus the A Balding yard are in fine form (26% SR, A/E 1.31 over the past fortnight).
3 members found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 Sandown
Roman Centurion
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@5.50
Void
0
I really like the look ROMAN CENTURION at 9/2 here. The gelding by Iffraaj won on reappearance in a maiden at Yarmouth last month before putting in a solid 3.25l 4th of 10 on handicap debut at Newbury. The 3rd that day has since gone on to lose by a nose and 6th won NTO so the form is stacking up plus the drop back to 7f looks a positive. J Ryan’s 30% SR (A/E 1.4) with fancied sprinters is another reason for optimism.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 York
El Cordobes
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
I understand why people are backing Absurde in the feature at York this afternoon but Fastnet Rock’s 17% SR (A/E 0.5) with favourites in June makes his son easy enough to oppose. Al Qareem is an old favourite of mine but the market leader is 2lb better off than their matchup at Chester LTO and while it’s hard to put a line through Alkasib I just think that EL CORDOBES could be open to any amount of improvement now up in trip. The son of Frankel wintered over in Meydan, coming runner-up on both starts, and made a winning reappearance on UK shores at Newmarket last month. That was only a handicap but he blew the field apart a furlong from home and ran through the line to suggest that a longer trip will suit him nicely. The 4yo was forced to make the running LTO in the Aston Park Stakes and finished 3l 3rd of 7 but he’s got AQ to set the fractions today and Godolphin’s 16% SR (A/E 1.78) with outsiders coming down in class is another reason for optimism. 4/1 taken.
14:10 2:10 Chester
Rosenpur
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@SP
Lose
-50
M Tabti is a bit of an anomaly given his general 42% SR (A/E 1.24) on favourites but 1/10 record (A/E 0.32) on favourites in the summer, and that makes Moonstone Boy easy to oppose. Copper Knight has been a grand old servant for connections however D Fentiman’s 3% SR (A/E 0.4) on runners carrying 8-12 to 9-0 is enough to put me off him, meanwhile Balon D’or is 0/7 when at or above his current mark. ROSENPUR is a highly consistent sort and I think can be chanced at 5/1; the J Candlish-trained gelding is 0/9 on turf but has finished close on multiple occasions, including his last two starts over C&D which both came in May. He should be winning off this sort of mark and Pour Moi’s 18% SR (A/E 1.56) in June adds further confidence.
Subtotal-180
13 June 2025
16:10 4:10 York
See That Storm
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.50
Lose
-50
Burrito has to be opposed here given his damning draw in stall 10 plus the Gosden’s 19% SR (A/E 0.44) with Lope De Vega favourites. Next up SEE THAT STORM makes the most appeal against; the son of Storm The Stars made a successful reappearance at Redcar last month to make it four successive wins before being touched off by a nose over the same C&D a few weeks later. He’s been bumped up 4lb for that but I'm not convinced that a mark of 94 is his ceiling given the gelding’s progressive nature and a positive draw in stall 1 today will make life easier. C Rodriguez is a jockey you’ve always got to keep on side in C1-3 races (26% SR, A/E 1.26 when fancied) and E Bethell’s 34% SR (A/E 1.33) with fancied runners on good to firm is another string to their bow. 9/2 taken.
Subtotal-50
09 June 2025
19:00 7:00 Windsor
Rosario
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@15.00
Lose
-50
I can’t be having Regal Envoy or Change Sings here; the former has to shoulder W Knight’s 9% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners when the jockey has 5 mounts that day, meanwhile E Johnson Houghton doesn’t produce decent 5f sprinters (12% SR, A/E 0.46 when fancied). Handicap debutant Miraculous has it all to do off a mark of 99 IMO and I’m not convinced that Miss Attitude is up to winning at this level on evidence of her previous starts. I think an each way play is the way and the one that catches my eye the most is ROSARIO at 14/1. The son of Harry Angel comes out top + blue FlatStats rated and is a consistent sort, winning on his penultimate start at Goodwood. He only beat one home over 6f LTO at Newbury but still only lost by 3.75l and is back down to his preferred 5f today off an unchanged mark. The R Teal yard are having a fantastic season so far (23% SR, A/E 1.85), you’ve got to pay attention when they book C Fallon (22% SR, A/E 1.65) and Teal’s 28% SR (A/E 2.12) with 5f sprinters in C1-3 races adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
08 June 2025
16:45 4:45 Goodwood
Hamish
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@2.10
Win
55
I’m fully respecting of Bolster here however Invincible Spirit don’t tend to appreciate Goodwood (8% SR, A/E 0.63) and I’m not convinced that his son will take to 12f given the sire’s 9% SR (A/E 0.66) over this trip. Lady Bamford does poorly with runners over this trip also (9% SR, A/E 0.46) so I’m not convinced that Palladium will be able to replicate his exploits overseas nor from over hurdles, meanwhile Fastnet Rock offer little value over 12f (9% SR, A/E 0.57) nor do they appreciate the course (7% SR, A/E 0.51) so I’m not expecting much from Military Academy. I can’t make a case for the remaining couple so HAMISH could just win by default as well as on merit. We know that he’ll relish the ground (56% SR on similar going), he’s a multiple Gr3 winner and won comfortably on his final start of 2024 in a listed contest at the Curragh. The son of Motivator always goes well fresh (7/9, A/E 2.4 when 57+ days) and is 4/4 (A/E 2.1) when going off favourite. 11/10 taken.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal55
07 June 2025
18:15 6:15 Doncaster
Pantile Warrior
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.50
Win
12
I’m not expecting the blinkers to aid Anniversary at all here given Sea The Moon’s poor 7% SR (A/E 0.44) with their use. Half-brother to the favourite, Way Of Stars, is another you can oppose due to A Balding’s 6% SR (A/E 0.41) with his progeny, meanwhile J Boyle is having a torrid season so far (5% SR, A/E 0.43) so I couldn’t have much faith in Many Men returning to winning ways. C Johnston does awful with handicap debutants (9% SR, A/E 0.6) so Pole Star shouldn’t be competitive, but PANTILE WARRIOR could improve to no end with the hood given how well the Gosden’s utilise the headgear (28% SR, A/E 1.31) and looks worth a chance at 15/2 (each way). The son of Frankel has been relatively disappointing so far with one win and three 2nds from seven starts but he’s no forlorn hope and the booking of B De La Sayette is a positive given his 20% SR (A/E 1.4) on pear-shaped courses.
1 member found this comment useful
16:15 4:15 Epsom Downs
Torcello
Daily Racing
25 EW
@41.00
Lose
-50
I’m going to take a wild swing on the old boy here in TORCELLO at 40/1 with 5 places on offer. The veteran by Born To Sea is a course winner, coming on his only start here back in 2019 on heavy ground and it looks as though he’ll get soft ground today. He absolutely thrives under these conditions (33% SR, A/E 2.55 on good to soft or worse) and the trip is of no concern (28% SR, A/E 2.5 in the UK) plus he won on reappearance last season, albeit in a lower grade. The gelding isn’t the most consistent but is running off his lowest mark for a few years to make life easier and a number of positive stats boost claims; most notable being S Lycett’s 24% SR (A/E 1.78) with runners keeping to the same trip and D Gilbert’s 21% SR (A/E 1.84) with Irish-born runners.
1 member found this comment useful
15:50 3:50 Musselburgh
City Of God
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.50
Lose
-50
I’d make CITY OF GOD much shorter than 15/2 for the feature at Musselburgh today and that makes him a decent each way play. Regalian has to overcome his owner’s 10% SR (A/E 0.49) with geldings, meanwhile Zarathos carries a poor FlatStats rating with plenty of negative stats to boot; most damning being D Cunha’s 4% SR (A/E 0.44) with runners coming up in trip. C Johnston’s 6% SR (A/E 0.43) with runners over 9f puts me off Thunder Wonder but a strong case can be made for COG; the colt by Kodiac showed plenty of promise on the AW over the winter, winning on 2nd start and finishing runner-up on his next two. He was then given a few months off before returning in a C2 handicap at Haydock where he ran well enough but looked a touch rusty. The 3yo should come on for the run, the step up in trip should suit here given the sire’s 3/8 record (A/E 2.25) over C&D and S James brings a superb 36% SR (A/E 1.49) at Musselburgh when riding for the K Burke team.
1 member found this comment useful
15:30 3:30 Epsom Downs
Delacroix
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.50
Lose
-50
This may be the most competitive Derby in years, but I still think that the A O’Brien team hold all the cards with DELACROIX. It has to be noted that R Moore has chosen the son of Dubawi over The Lion In Winter, with the latter being 1lb superior on official ratings, so they must think that Delacroix has any amount of improvement over this trip. He’s unbeaten so far this season, winning by more than 2l in both the Ballysax on reappearance and in the Derby trial over the same C&D. The 3yo looked to have plenty of running left over the 10f so the step up 12f doesn’t concern me, the O’Brien yard are operating at a huge 40% SR (A/E 1.37) over in the UK so far this season, they’re 6/8 (A/E 1.44) with favourites over here and the owners’ 44% SR (A/E 1.62) with fancied runners coming up in trip provides even further confidence. 5/2 taken.
1 member found this comment useful
13:35 1:35 Epsom Downs
Ice Max
Daily Racing
25 EWNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 11.00 used instead of 8.50 takenBOG
@11.00
Win
25
Both Docklands and Persica are easy to oppose here in the Diomed; the former has ousted Persica from market leadership however he now has to overcome Massaat’s 15% SR (A/E 0.39) with favourites in stakes’ races and same SR (A/E 0.41) with favs going left-handed. The latter looks to me like he needs at least 10f and for some reason he’s being dropped to 8.5f so I’m expecting him to run out of time. I think you can take an each way price here and while he’s short enough I like the look of ICE MAX at 15/2; the son Dark Angel looked like he needed the run on reappearance at Sandown in April and it also came on his less favourable good ground. There looks to be plenty of rain around today so I’m expecting some ease in the surface and K Burke’s 26% SR (A/E 1.41) for Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum provides further optimism.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-113
06 June 2025
18:20 6:20 Bath
Proof
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
Secret Santa is far too short here. Owner J Wood holds an awful 4% SR (A/E 0.43) in C1-3 races on turf and R Hannon an even worse 2% SR (A/E 0.17) with Ballylinch Stud-bred horses. Proof has been fairly loveless in the market but that makes his price more appealing to me at 11/2. The Zoustar colt outran his huge odds (18/1 SP) at Salisbury on debut last month (1.25l 2nd of 9) with the 3rd going on to win her next race. I’d fully expect a more rounded display today, he’s got an extra 160 yards to fully get into stride, a top + blue FlatStats rating to boot, the C Hills team are finally starting to get rolling (3/15, A/E 1.3 over the past fortnight) and generally speaking the owners are fairly underbet (16% SR, A/E 1.47).
17:10 5:10 Epsom Downs
Rhoscolyn
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@5.00
Lose
-50
Miss Information has to be taken on here given Blue Point’s 20% SR (A/E 0.49) with favourites going left handed. Next up RHOSCOLYN makes the most appeal against at 4/1; the Territories gelding is 2/2 over C&D including last years’ renewal and the 2021. He’s running off the same mark as last years’ and you can take a kind view on his runs so far this season given they’ve all come on good going and he’s shown to be more effective with some cut in the ground. The 7yo has got that here, he’s 2/6 (A/E 2.79) when having a quick return to the track (within a week) and a multitude of positive stats for The Horse Watchers adds further confidence; most notable being their 31% SR (A/E 1.54) with fancied runners in C1-3 races, a 36% SR (A/E 1.44) on fancied sprinters and 31% SR (A/E 1.46) when you add those two together.
16:35 4:35 Epsom Downs
Two Tempting
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.50
Lose
-50
He’s been on the drift a tad this morning but I’m sticking but TWO TEMPTING here. Mirsky is a windy enough fav given J Blackburn’s 6% SR (A/E 0.48) in the summer, meanwhile Flight Plan is probably carrying too much weight. C Grassick’s 10% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied 4yo’s makes Ebt’s Guard short enough and Mr Baloo carries a poor FlatStats rating so is likely to offer little value. He might not be a big price but 15/2 looks a fair each way play for TT off his highest ever mark; the son of New Bay won this race last year, albeit off a 13lb lower mark, and you won’t have any concerns as to whether he’ll take to the undulations of Epsom. He must be a brilliant horse to own given his career 23% SR and he added another to the list at Chester LTO, taking strong support and winning by 3/4l. The front two pulled 3l clear of the 3rd so was clearly a smart effort(s), TT carries a top + blue FlatStats rating plus NB’s 22% SR (A/E 1.31) on stiff tracks adds further confidence.
15:15 3:15 Epsom Downs
Mutaawid
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.50
Lose
-50
My marginally strongest fancy of the day comes in the form of MUTAAWID at 9/2. Defiance needs to overcome Camelot’s awful 1/44 record (A/E 0.16) at Epsom, meanwhile G Boughey’s 9% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied runners wearing cheek pieces puts me of Botanical. Rathgar has a number of negatives to overcome; most notable being his owners’ 5% SR (A/E 0.39) on Fridays and Ulysses’ 4% SR (A/E 0.31) with runners carrying up to 8-11 and I struggle to make a case for the remainder. Mutaawid ran well enough on seasonal appearance at Goodwood (5.5l 5th of 11) before demolishing the field at Newmarket, winning by the mere 6l. The son of Frankel has been hiked 10lb up handicap but I don’t think that this is his ceiling given his level of consistency, the Gosden yard are in decent enough form (29% SR, A/E 1.18 over the past fortnight) and J Crowley brings a 21% SR (A/E 1.3) on runners wearing blinkers.
Subtotal-200
05 June 2025
15:42 3:42 Hamilton
Vantheman
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.50
Lose
-50
Korker can be opposed here given his poor FlatStats rating and K Burke’s 21% SR (A/E 0.47) with favourites over 6f at Hamilton. Tropical Island can too be ruled out given his equally as poor FS rating plus the R Fahey yard form (2/47, A/E 0.3 over the past fortnight) and O Orr’s 6% SR (A/E 0.4) on Thursdays. Next up VANTHEMAN makes plenty of appeal however, now down to his last winning mark and back up to 6f. You can forgive him for his below-par effort at York LTO; he was slowly away over 5f and that’s usually all she wrote in that scenario, and I’m not convinced he took to Newmarket’s undulations on seasonal appearance in April. This is much calmer waters for the son of Invincible Army a number of positive stats for the sire boost claims further; most notable being his 38% SR (A/E 1.64) with fancied runners over this trip, 34% SR (A/E 1.4) with fancied runners on straight tracks and impressive 41% SR (A/E 1.81) when you add those two together. 9/2 taken.
Subtotal-50
02 June 2025
19:15 7:15 Windsor
So Darn Hot
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@5.00
Win
200
I’m fully respecting of Strong Warrior here but the R Fahey yard form has fallen off a cliff (1/37, A/E 0.21 over the past fortnight) so I'm not convinced that his charge will be fully firing 55 days after his last outing. Next up SO DARN HOT makes the most appeal against; the son of Too Darn Hot has been progressive, particularly on the AW notching up 2 wins and 2 places from 5 starts. He won at Doncaster on soft last year, backing up a 3/4l defeat under similar conditions at Yarmouth, and a 3.5l 3rd of 12 on quicker ground at Newmarket LTO suggests that good to firm won’t hinder the 3yo. J Mitchell is a fantastic booking given his 22% SR (A/E 1.55) over the past month, Deerfield Farm (breeder) bring a superb 53% SR (A/E 1.7) with fancied runners in 3yo races and SDH’s top + blue FlatStats rating is another reason for optimism. 4/1 taken.
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Subtotal200
01 June 2025
17:15 5:15 Chelmsford City
Documenting
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@10.00
Lose
-50
I think the old boy DOCUMENTING is worth a chance back on the AW at 9/1 with 5 places on offer. Palmar Bay is far too short given his two goes on the AW and the fact that this is his first time at Chelmsford which Exceed And Excel progeny don’t always flourish at. Signcastle City has a deluge of negatives to overcome; most notable being R Hannon’s 8% SR (A/E 0.28) with fancied runners on Sundays and Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum’s 1/35 record (A/E 0.19) with Dark Angel progeny. Physique, meanwhile, carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside Kingman’s poor 11% SR (A/E 0.47) with fancied runners trained in the East Midlands and Probe needs to overcome Kingman’s 1/68 record (A/E 0.12) with 7yo’s on the AW. Documenting won on his last start of 2024 at Wolvo with J Mitchell on board and runs off just a 2lb higher mark today. He gave a fair enough display at Thirsk on reappearance (3.5l 4th of 12) with a poor claiming jockey on board so it’s a positive to see Mitchell renew acquaintances and Zamindar’s 35% SR (A/E 1.51) with fancied runners keeping to the same trip adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
31 May 2025
15:33 3:33 Haydock
Alyanaabi
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@4.33
Lose
-50
He did me a solid one over C&D in the Spring Trophy and I’m sticking with ALYANAABI here at 10/3. I’m fully respecting of Audience but he needs to bounce back from Meydan last month where he beat just 2 rivals home and he isn't the most consistent. Kinross is a favourite of mine but I think the 5lb+ he’s got to give to the field and being the ripe old age of 8 takes matters out of his hands. You could perhaps look for an each way play but Alyanaabi did look a touch rusty and should come forward from his run LTO after being away for 259 days. 7f is clearly his trip on the basis of that win, his 2nd in the Dewhurst behind City Of Troy, win in the Tattersalls and 4.75l 4th of 10 behind classy Rosallion in the Pat Eddery. I’m expecting big things this season from the 4yo son of Too Darn Hot, he carries a top + blue FlatStats rating, O Burrows brings a 60% SR (A/E 1.76) with fancied runners in Group races at Haydock and J Crowley a 42% SR (A/E 1.79) on fancied runners in Gr races for Burrows.
1 member found this comment useful
14:45 2:45 Chester
Tricky Tel
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.62
Win
81
He’s already got a win on the board and TRICKY TEL should use that experience to good use here. Come On Over carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside Amo Racing’s poor 2/22 record (A/E 0.31) with fancied runners on tight courses, meanwhile Going Commando bares an even worse FS rating and A Keatley’s 4% SR (A/E 0.4) with moderately fancied runners tempers enthusiasm further. Starman’s first crop have flattered to deceive so far (10% SR, A/E 0.45) so I’m not expecting a step forward from Goldenstateofmind and I can’t make a case for the rest. TT couldn’t have won any more comfortably on debut here at Chester over 5.5f at the beginning of the month; he’s got a 6lb penalty to carry for that but the 3rd and 4th have since gone on to win, suggesting that the form might prove useful. The son of Ubettabelieveit carries a top + blue FS rating plus a couple of positive stats boost claims further; most notable being H Palmer’s 67% SR (A/E 1.49) with 2yo favourites at Chester and the breeder’s general 23% SR (A/E 1.62). 13/8 taken.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal31
29 May 2025
19:35 7:35 Sandown
Military Order
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@6.00
Lose
-50
5/1 for MILITARY ORDER in the Brigadier Gerard this evening seems huge value to me. The son of Frankel will be prime for this after a easy listed success on reappearance at Kempton last month and it has to be noted that W Buick has opted for him over stablemate Ancient Wisdom. He carries a top + blue FlatStats rating, just above Persica and Enfjaar and Buick's 34% SR ( A/E 1.32) on fancied 5yo's adds further confidence.
18:35 6:35 Sandown
Clear Force
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.00
Lose
-50
I think First Legion can be opposed here give Mehmas’s terrible 6% SR (A/E 0.33) at Sandown (0/7 when favourite). Next up CLEAR FORCE makes the most appeal against at 2/1; the colt by Supremacy lost by 1.25l on debut at Musselburgh to the smart Dickensian and put that experience to good use when dropped into C4 company at Ripon, winning by a comfortable 4.5l. The K Burke yard clearly target this race, with two wins from the past 8 renewals, so you’d expect their charge to be fully firing today and a couple of positive fancied stats boost claims; Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum’s 44% SR (A/E 1.56) in May and Burke’s 35% SR (A/E 1.37) on Thursdays.
Subtotal-100
26 May 2025
16:35 4:35 Redcar
See That Storm
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.50
Lose
-50
Sir Lowry’s Pass can be opposed here given G Downing’s 11% SR (A/E 0.31) on favourites sticking to the same trip and 14% SR (A/E 0.36) on favs over middle distances. Approval is hard to rule out but he’s got to put an underwhelming reappearance run (10.75l 11th of 13) at Newmarket behind him, meanwhile A Keatley’s 5% SR (A/E 0.38) with horses who ran 8 to 14 days ago makes Romieu easy to put a line through. I can’t make a case for the double digit runners but SEE THAT STORM did the business for me LTO and I’ve got to stick with the five-time-seeking son of Storm The Stars. He’s been progressing nicely since joining the E Bethell yard, going off favourite on all four starts, going up in class on two and always just doing enough. The 4yo is now 15lb higher than on yard debut but I don’t think a mark of 91 is his ceiling and a number of fancied starts boost claims; most notable being C Rodriguez’s 57% SR (A/E 2.22) on fancied runners over 10f in C1-3 races and Bethell’s 54% SR (A/E 1.65) with fancied runners over 10f on good to firm.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
24 May 2025
15:30 3:30 Haydock
Electric Storm
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Lose
-50
It’s probably not wise of me to be taking on the highly progressive American Affair but he an Rumstar are taking up such a large portion of the market share that you’ve got to be taking an each way nibble. ELECTRIC STORM interests me the most at 11/1; the mare by Night Of Thunder has shown herself to be a consistent sort, only finishing out of the frame on 2/10 appearances. She won on both appearances as a 3yo, both at Kempton, before having a fruitful campaign on the turf around the world last season including Gr3 contests in France and Ireland. A successful reappearance run at Bath in a listed contest last month was backed up by another strong display in the Prix de Saint-George a couple of weeks back so she’ll be primed for this and NOT’s 25% SR (A/E 1.37) at the course suggests his daughter could prove value.
1 member found this comment useful
14:45 2:45 Beverley
Naval Light
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.00
Lose
-50
Old Is Gold has to be opposed given Opulence Thoroughbreds’ 0/6 record with favourites up in class and 1/11 (A/E 0.28) record with 2yo favs. Next up NAVAL LIGHT makes the most appeal against at 11/4; the debutant by Havana Grey hails from the powerful K Burke yard who have a fantastic 50% SR with fancied 2yo FTO’s so far this season. Wathnan Racing hold an impressive 40% SR (A/E 1.24) with juvenile debutants (2/3, A/E 1.44) so I see no reason as to why their charge won’t be competitive here and HG’s 38% SR (A/E 1.32) with fancied runners in May adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Haydock
King Casper
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@4.50
Lose
-50
7/2 for KING CASPER looks huge value to me in the Silver Bowl. Teroomm is running off a stiff enough mark and R Varian doesn’t exactly excel with handicap debutants (19% SR, A/E 0.81), meanwhile Rabbah Racing’s 7% SR (A/E 0.44) with runners coming up in class puts me off Dixieland Blues. City Of God carries a poor FlatStats and while I could make a case for Thunder Wonder, J Fanning is out of sorts of late (1/31, A/E 0.26 over the past fortnight). It’s easy enough to rule out the remainder so I think KC is the logical choice; the son of Shaman looked average on debut at York before putting that behind him at here Haydock over 7f NTO (winning by 1.75l). I don’t think he appreciated the cut in the ground on final reappearance over C&D so I can forgive the colt for that and he made an emphatic return last month at HQ, winning comfortably on handicap debut by 3l. The handicapper has hiked the 3yo 9lb up in the weights but I don’t think this is his ceiling and H Palmer’s huge 52% SR (A/E 1.42) with favourites at Haydock is another reason for optimism.
1 member found this comment useful
13:30 1:30 Goodwood
Mr Chaplin
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.00
Lose
-50
Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum’s 21% SR (A/E 0.49) with favourites in May makes Power Fizz easy to oppose here and next up MR CHAPLIN makes plenty of each way appeal at 7/1 with 5 places on offer. The Without Parole gelding is a C&D winner in a nursery last year, albeit off a 9lb lower mark, but is clearly highly thought of given he’s been tried at Gr2, Gr3 and listed level. The form is working out nicely from his run in the Accomb with beaten odds-on Dante favourite The Lion In Winter (1st), Royal Lodge Stakes winner Wimbledon Hawkeye (2nd) and eventual guineas winner Ruling Court (3rd) so you must think that the step back into handicap company off a mark of 96 as a huge positive on reappearance.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-200
23 May 2025
18:47 6:47 Pontefract
Ubetterseethis
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.50
Lose
-50
Farough has to be opposed here given Sheikh Abdullah Almalek Alsabah’s 13% SR (A/E 0.38) with favs who ran 15 to 28 days ago plus R Varian’s 21% SR (A/E 0.47) with market leaders at Pontefract. Next up UBETTERSEETHIS makes the most appeal against given his two runs previously; the son of Ubettabelieveit was denied by a head on debut here at Ponte over 5f last month before being upped in class at Beverley and being a comfortably beaten odds-on favourite. He was hampered early on that day but I see S James as a jockey upgrade from 3lb claimer W Pyle and C Lidster’s 39% SR (A/E 1.69) with fancied runners on good to firm adds further confidence. 5/2 taken.
15:50 3:50 Goodwood
Liberty Lane
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.00 used instead of 3.00 takenBOG
@4.00
Win
150
You’ve got to take Silver Knott seriously in the feature at Goodwood this afternoon but I think LIBERTY LANE will take all the beating at 2/1. SK has a 7lb penalty to overcome today after a success in the UAE earlier on in the year and I think that’ll make this task too tough for the gelding, meanwhile Expolanet has to overcome Sea The Stars’ 8% SR (A/E 0.36) over 10f at Goodwood. I struggled to make a case for the remainder so SK could just win by default as well as on merit; the son of Teofilo will be aided by a touch of moisture in the going and is dropping back into listed company after a fair 3.5l 3rd of 6 in the Huxley Stakes at Chester. C Lee brings a brilliant 48% SR (A/E 1.32) on favourites going right handed, owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum a 52% SR (A/E 1.38) with favs in 4yo+ races and K Burke does well with the latter's runners when he bred them (38% SR, A/E 1.29 when fancied).
Subtotal100
22 May 2025
14:47 2:47 Haydock
This Guy
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@9.00
Lose
-50
Dark Angel debutants rarely offer much value (8% SR, A/E 0.65), even less so when favourite (22% SR, A/E 0.56) and that makes Time To Turn easy to oppose here. D Probert isn't a jockey you want on FTO (10% SR, A/E 0.49) which makes Maximised hard to side with but the once-raced THIS GUY can be chanced each way at 8/1. The son of Blue Point was an underwhelming beaten fav at Newmarket on debut, but he was slowly away and looked green as grass throughout. R Ryan didn’t beat the colt around and ended up treating it as something of a learning curve so I’m hoping that that experience will be put to good use here. He carries a lofty top + blue FlatStats rating, the C Cox yard have finally hit a bit of form and their 29% SR (A/E 1.78) with 2yo’s at Haydock is another reason for optimism.
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Subtotal-50
19 May 2025
18:50 6:50 Windsor
Rhythm N Hooves
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPNOTETip made at odds of 8.00 on 19/05 at 07:270.15 deduction for Jumbeau@5.50 withdrawn at 18:51R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 7.00 x (1-0.15) = 6.95
@6.95
Win
4
Toca Madera can be opposed here given T Jakes’s 3% SR (A/E 0.26) on sole trainer runners that day and the B Meehan yard form (6% SR, A/E 0.4 over the past month). Regal Envoy will do well to overcome awful 7% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied runners in May, meanwhile Jumbeau carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside Brazen Beau’s damning 9% SR (A/E 0.41) with fancied runners in C1-3 races. S Williams holds a poor 3% SR (A/E 0.29) with J Morley runners which puts the badly FS rated Existent up against it but RHYTHM N HOOVES has shown to be a capable operator on his day and 7/1 is a decent each way price. The 5yo has been busy since December with 2W 1P from 9 starts and plenty of solid efforts along the way. A 1.25l 4th of 7 at Goodwood on turf reappearance earlier this month was a promising sign, particularly given he lost a shoe, and he’s been dropped a pound for that effort so should be competitive again here. Pearl Secret’s 18% SR (A/E 1.67) on pear-shaped tracks and 18% SR (A/E 1.51) over 5f adds further confidence.
Subtotal4
17 May 2025
15:45 3:45 Newbury
Indian Run
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@9.00
Win
15
My final tip today and NAP goes to INDIAN RUN at 8/1 with 4 places on offer. The J Camacho-trained gelding was the Accomb winner in 2023 and, while hasn’t got his head in front since, bounced back to form LTO at HQ with a 1.5l defeat in a heritage handicap. He’s been dropped a pound now and this is just his 3rd start for the yard who have started the season strongly so you’d expect an even better display here. M Hughes and M Kerr’s 21% SR (A/E 1.63) with runners carrying 9-4+ is another positive for the son of Sioux Nation.
14:35 2:35 Newbury
Persica
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@15.00
Lose
-50
I’ve been with him on countless occasions, and I can’t abandon PERSICA today in the Lockinge. This looks a very deep renewal of the race, with Rosallion a more than fair market leader and contenders such as hat-trick seeking Dancing Gemini + the classy Notable Speech, however you’re getting 14/1 (each way) for a horse who won pretty convincingly in the Earl Of Sefton and can take his chance again at Gr1 level. The son of New Bay is boosted by a number of positive stats; most notable being M Hughes + M Kerr’s 19% SR (A/E 1.86) with R Hannon-trained runners and NB’s 25% SR (A/E 1.38) with colts.
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13:25 1:25 Newbury
Noble Champion
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
I think 18/1 (4 places) is far too big for NOBLE CHAMPION here. The market is pricing it up as though this’ll be a procession for Ides Of March, however I don’t think that’ll be the case given R Moore’s poor 19% SR (A/E 0.52) on favourites over 6f at Newbury. A strong case can be made for Symbol Of Honour but I think that the Greenham is working out nicely and could get even better for NC. The son of Lope De Vega won on second time of asking at Lingfield (AW) as a 2yo before being put away for the winter. He returned in the Greenham but was disadvantaged by being held up down the centre and all the near side runners filled the first 5 places. A step up to a mile was attempted at Goodwood LTO on handicap debut, but he looked stretched IMO and the drop back to 6f is more suitable. E Walker’s 10% SR (A/E 1.82) with outsiders carrying 9-1 to 9-3 and T Marquand’s 8% SR (A/E 1.37) on Irish-sired outsiders are further reasons for optimism.
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Subtotal-85
16 May 2025
14:42 2:42 York
Thunder Run
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@6.50
Win
275
Of the market principles THUNDER RUN holds the best draw in stall 4 and is unlikely to be taken on for the lead so could prove difficult to peg back. The son of Night Of Thunder won a big field handicap here at York (8f) back in August off a 4lb lower mark (96) and gave a decent display off 100 on soft ground at Ascot NTO (3.25l 4th of 20). He looked like he needed the run on reappearance in the Lincoln and it looks like he prefers faster ground so I’d expect an improved display today. 11/2 taken.
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Subtotal275
15 May 2025
14:42 2:42 York
Cruyff Turn
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@15.00
Lose
-50
I can’t quite fathom CRUYFF TURN being 14/1 here with 4 places on offer (5 with Bet365). Blue For You holds a negative draw in stall 4, as does Romieu but he also needs to overcome A Keatley’s poor start to the season. Sisyphean and Old Cock were on the shortlist but CT won this race a few years back and has shown that he’s still the force of old with a win sandwiched by two 2.5l defeats so far this year. The quick ground is of no concern, the T Easterby team are in good form (14% SR, A/E 1.17 over the past month), the 8yo has a positive draw in stall 7 and D Allan holds a decent 13% SR (A/E 1.75) in big field middle distance handicaps.
14:10 2:10 York
Pilgrim
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@11.00
Lose
-50
I like the look of PILGRIM a 10/1 with 5 places in the opener at York today. The son of Havana Grey made a promising reappearance run at Ripon LTO; going off 7/4 fav and losing out by 1/2l to a runner from the K Ryan yard who have started the season well. The handicapper has raised him a couple of pounds (98) for that effort but he's ran well enough off a mark of 100 in the past to suggest that he can be competitive and HG's 24% SR (A/E 1.37) in May adds further confidence.
Subtotal-100
14 May 2025
16:55 4:55 York
Frio
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-50
FRIO is the rightful fav here and 7/4 should be taken. Utmost Respect carries a dreadful FlatStats rating alongside M Scaife's 3% SR (A/E 0.32) at Northern courses, meanwhile Ballistic Missile's barely comes out better on FS ratings and S Foley does pretty awful over in the UK (6% SR, A/E 0.6). I couldn't make a case for the remainder so the jolly should win by default as well as on merit. The son of Havana Grey made a promising debut at Musselburgh last month; losing 3l to C2 performing Dickensian and NTO winner Clear Force after being squeezed up at the start. He carries a lofty top + blue FlatStats rating alongside HG's impressive 53% SR (A/E 1.33) with favourites in May boosting claims.
16:18 4:18 York
Red Sand
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
I think Gallant can be opposed here given his poor FlatStats rating plus A Balding's 14% SR (A/E 0.37) with French-sired favourites. Next up RED SAND makes the most appeal against and 5/1 can be taken. The son of Too Darn Hot came runner up on debut at Bath before easily winning at Goodwood NTO. He wasn't seen again that season but made a successful reappearance at Wolverhampton last month, winning by a short head off a front-running ride. I don't see the fast ground being an issue today, nor the step up in class and you'd expect a step forward from that last run. TDH's 28% SR (A/E 1.67) with Lambourn-based runners, his 22% SR (A/E 1.38) on pear shaped courses and Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum's 28% SR (A/E 1.34) on Wednesdays is further reasons for optimism.
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15:13 3:13 York
Inisherin
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.25
Win
112
INISHERIN looks the one to beat in the Duke Of York this afternoon and 9/4 is widely available. The son of Shamardal was a decisive victor of the Commonwealth Cup last year, coming on the back of an even easier success in the Sandy Lane at Haydock to cement his status as an elite horse. He ran well enough in the July Cup last July, albeit being a beaten fav, and it looked as though they’d gone to the well too many times when he only beat three home in the Sprint Cup. R Moore is an obvious positive alongside Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum’s 52% SR (A/E 1.28) with favourites returning off 57+ days away.
1 member found this comment useful
14:42 2:42 York
Dark Thirty
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@15.00
Win
45
I’m going to wade in again with old friend DARK THIRTY here at 14/1 with 5 places on offer. The Starspangledbanner gelding made a successful reappearance at Doncaster in March, winning by a nose at Doncaster after heavy support. He failed to back that up NTO at Newmarket but excuses can be made given he reared leaving the stalls and held absolutely no chance thereafter so you’ve got to fancy his chances again today off a 1lb lower mark. The 5yo holds a decent draw in stall 3 (lowest best), the J Camacho team have started the year off in fantastic form (20% SR, A/E 1.18) and S Levey is a positive jockey booking given he won on DT at Doncaster and his 20% SR (A/E 2.03) when riding for these owners.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal57
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