CalFergie

Stick to the good stuff (the flat). Use stats and systems alongside form to find selections. Some tips are based on market support so follow my Twitter handle for updates - @CalFergie

Estimated Prizes
this month

£5

Estimated Prize money
this month

CalFergie's Tips History

26 July 2024

17:30 5:30 York

Charencey

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.50

Lose

-50

Leadenhall has been ousted from market leadership by CHARENCY and I am fully behind this at 7/2. The former has a terrible draw in stall 4 (low hugely underperform), as does The Crookstown Cafu in 2, meanwhile Great Max has his owner’s 6% SR (A/E 0.28) with fancied runners in 4yo+ races to overcome. You could perhaps look for a wild outsider considering the places on offer (5), however Charency is a consistent performer and has won twice already this year; the most recent coming in a dead heat at Doncaster earlier this month. He’s only been raised a couple of pounds for that effort and when you consider he was the only runner to make any headway from the rear, he should be capable of more. There are an absolute deluge of positive favourite stats to boost claims further; most notably I Williams’s 49% SR (A/E 1.39) with LTO winners, his 48% SR (A/E 1.49) on Fridays, R Ryan’s 47% SR (A/E 1.28) when the trainer has two runners that day and his 45% SR (A/E 1.49) on 4yo’s.

25 July 2024

20:30 8:30 Yarmouth

King Lear

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.00

Lose

-50

I fancy the chances of KING LEAR in the curtain closer at Yarmouth this evening. S Bowen’s 9% SR (A/E 0.35) on fancied runners when they’re the trainers’ only runner at the meeting makes Midair fairly easy to oppose, meanwhile Flying Frontier’s poor FlatStats rating suggests that he’ll prove little value. Mythical Guest has his owner’s 3% SR (A/E 0.32) on Thursdays to overcome, meanwhile Havana Gold’s 8% SR (A/E 0.33) with fancied runners at Yarmouth makes Have Secret difficult to side with. KL has a the best draw of all in stall 1, and while a long absence to overcome, he showed enough promise as a 3yo to suggest he’ll come on this season. He’s been gelded since last seen but Galileo’s tend to improve for it (18% SR, A/E 1.21) and he came back lame after his handicap debut at Pontefract in September so you can put a line through that effort. 7/1 with 4 places taken.

18:00 6:00 Yarmouth

Spirit Of Applause

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Blue Point’s 1/13 record (A/E 0.17) with favourites coming up in trip makes Good Good Good easy to oppose here and next up SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE looks decent value against at 11/1 (4 places). The son of Charm Spirit hasn’t won for some time, however his run at York LTO looked a step in the right direction where he was badly hampered in the final furlong when making headway. On his penultimate start the gelding finished 2.75l 6th of 8 in a C3 handicap at Redcar and is 5lb lower in the handicap today so should be weighted to go well in a lower contest. CS’s 35% SR (A/E 1.56) with fancied runners carrying up to 8-12 adds further confidence.

15:50 3:50 Sandown

Kalidasa

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.25

Lose

-50

KALIDASA could be open to any amount of improvement now going handicapping over a longer trip and 9/4 is taken. Incensed has to overcome Ulysses 13% SR (A/E 0.46) with fancied runners in 3yo races and 6% SR (A/E 0.48) with runners coming up in class, meanwhile My Dream World has a big step up to take from a success at Haydock LTO. D Egan doesn’t team up well with M Bell (6% SR, A/E 0.37) so I’d be staying clear of Cock And Bull and I find it hard to make a case for the remaining couple. Kalidasa won on debut at Wolvo in January before giving a bold display in a C2 novice “confined” event at HQ a few months back. The colt by Frankel is from top connections and holds plenty of scope.

14:00 2:00 Doncaster

Falcon Nine

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@13.00

Lose

-50

I make FALCON NINE a solid each way play at 12/1 with 4 places on offer in the opener at Doncaster. The son of Ulysses has only ran a couple of times for C Fellowes; finishing 6.75l 6th of 9 on seasonal appearance at Brighton and 9.75l 7th of 9 at Lingfield LTO. You can certainly make excuses for both of those runs and if things click with the application of the hood today (Ulysses progeny perform well with its use and Fellowes judges it well also) then he should be fighting out the finish from a positive draw in stall 4. The yard have really taken off of late (18% SR, A/E 1.39 over the past month) and their 18% SR (A/E 1.39) on Thursdays adds further confidence.

20 July 2024

19:45 7:45 Doncaster

Akkadian Thunder

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Win

240

Another windy fav who I want to take on today is Summer Of Love. The Dark Angel filly carries a poor FlatStats rating with the booking of C Howarth; generally speaking he doesn’t offer much value, particularly on pear-shaped courses (2% SR, A/E 0.17). Rajindri also carries as poor FS rating with plenty of negative stats; most notable being Profitable’s 13% SR (A/E 0.46) with fancied runners over 7f and T Clover’s 7% SR (A/E 0.42) with runners coming down in class. Monkey Island has come in for support, but he too carries a bad FS rating and B Meehan’s 1/21 record (A/E 0.18) with fancied Australian-sired runners tempers enthusiasm further. I think it wise to look at an each way play with 4 places and AKKADIAN THUNDER looks worthy at 8/1. The Night Of Thunder gelding really took to the turf at Redcar LTO (1l 2nd of 14) on what was his first go on the surface and coming up in class. He’s only been raised a couple of pounds for that effort and a couple of positive stats boost claims further; M Winn’s 31% SR (A/E 1.35) on fancied geldings and NOT’s 21% SR (A/E 1.26) over 7f.

15:55 3:55 Ripon

Sea King

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@6.50

Lose

-50

Shadow Dance is easy to oppose for the feature at Ripon given a few negative favourite stats for Almanzor; most notably his 12% SR (A/E 0.31) in 3yo+ races. Next up SEA KING makes plenty of appeal against at 11/2. The son of legendary Sea The Stars won LTO at Ayr, justifying evens favouritism to win going away by 3/4l. He's got a career-high mark to contend with today but is a C&D winner and STS’s huge 56% SR (A/E 1.45) with fancied runners at Ripon suggests SK could prove decent value.

15:00 3:00 Newbury

Elite Status

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.00

Win

150

I understand the hype around Regional for the Hackwood but E Bethell’s 14% SR (A/E 0.47) with fancied runners who finished 2nd LTO makes me want to take him on and ELITE STATUS fits the bill. The son of Havana Grey has come in for support this morning and has ousted Regional from market leadership; this fills me with plenty of confidence given C Lee’s huge 54% SR (A/E 1.36) on favourites in July. The colt is a C&D winner LTO, taking a listed contest in fine fashion on his reappearance, so the step back up to Group 3 company makes plenty of sense. K Burke’s 40% SR (A/E 1.41) with fancied runners for the owner adds further confidence and 3/1 has been taken.

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14:25 2:25 Newbury

Naqeeb

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.00

Lose

-50

Generally speaking, Highland Reel favourites offer very little value (20% SR, A/E 0.57), so I think that makes Kyle Of Lochalsh easy to oppose IMO. Dancing In Paris is in decent form so you can make a case for him, however this is a step up in class after victory (neck) at Ascot a week ago in a race which set up perfectly for him. Next up NAQEEB makes appeal to me at 5/1; the son of Nathaniel is a fairly unexposed 4yo with a couple of wins from 9 starts. His reappearance run at HQ in the Jockey Club gave plenty of promise (3.75l 3rd of 6) but he really flattered to deceive NTO at York in a messy Yorkshire Cup. A drop back to handicap company LTO was a step in the right direction although he was hampered badly and never able to get involved. He carries a top + blue FlatStats rating here alongside Shadwell’s 33% SR (A/E 1.25) with runners carrying 9-7+ adding further confidence.

1 member found this comment useful

19 July 2024

19:55 7:55 Pontefract

Dakota Gold

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Old boy DAKOTA GOLD has been in fine form of late and looks a worthy each way play here at 11/1. Vantheman carries a poor FlatStats rating along with K Ryan’s 8% SR (A/E 0.42) over C&D, meanwhile Wen Moon holds an even worse FS rating so is unlikely to offer any value. J Quinn has had a rocky start to the season and things don’t look to be improving (6% SR, A/E 0.51 over the past month), so that makes Due For Luck hard to back. It seems wise to look at the moderately priced + unfancied runners and DG makes huge appeal on his drop back to 5f for the FT this season. A deluge of positive stats for his breeder, owner and trainer boost claims further.

19:10 7:10 Hamilton

Caviar Heights

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@7.50

Lose

-50

Kalpana is an utterly ridiculous price at for the feature at Hamilton this evening. Juddmonte-bred favourites when trained by A Balding only operate around a 23% SR (A/E 0.43) so their charge is unlikely to offer much value, meanwhile God’s Window is a fairly unexposed 3yo and we can’t be sure what to expect now dropping in grade. CAVIAR HEIGHTS has proven himself to be a useful colt with a listed success to his name already at HQ in May and probably didn’t deal with the step up to Group level twice since. 13/2 looks a huge price in this small field with C Lee booked (he fairs best of the jockeys here) and K Burke’s 29% SR (A/E 1.54) for the owner adds further confidence.

18:35 6:35 Hamilton

First Folio

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@8.50

Win

Tiriac is stepping up a couple of classes and J Channon’s 12% SR (A/E 0.35) with favs over 6f makes the jolly easy to oppose here. Jordan Electrics has been a grand old servant for connections but J Goldie has a terrible 4/112 record (A/E 0.36) over C&D so his charge is unlikely to prove value, however FIRST FOLIO has been heading in the right direction of late and 15/2 looks solid each way value. The son of Dark Angel hasn’t won for a couple of years but looks to be operating off a dangerous mark when losing out by 1.75l at Thirsk a couple of weeks back. He’s running off the same mark here but with the added benefit of O McSweeney talking 3lb off his back and a few positive stats boost claims further; the claimers’ 26% SR (A/E 1.73) in Scotland, J Camacho’s 31% SR (A/E 1.52) at Hamilton and her 28% SR (A/E 1.4) with fancied runners carrying 9-1 to 9-3.

18:10 6:10 Pontefract

Invincible Love

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

I’m intrigued to see what INVINCIBLE LOVE brings on debut at Ponte (6:10) this evening. The fav is far too short (evens) given Washington DC's 2% SR (A/E 0.17) with colts and 5% SR (A/E 0.44) in summer. Scatter Penny is my idea of the winner, but she's the only filly in the field. C Beasley just doesn't get Ponte (8% SR, A/E 0.35 when fancied) and Land Force's 4% SR (A/E 0.39) over 6f suggests that Homeland will struggle on debut. Masar holds a terrible record with 2yo's (2% SR, A/E 0.17) so that puts a line through Watchmaker and you're then into the rags which are all hard to make cases for. Territories (Invincible Love) don't tend to appreciate uphill and/or stiff tracks, but his colt has a handy draw in stall 10 and has the booking of Vincent Ho who's had decent success on British shores previously (32% SR, A/E 2.08). It’s no secret as to how much the Johnston yard have been underperforming this season, but they’re such a powerhouse that you’d expect an uplift soon and the price is accommodating of this. 12/1 each way taken.

15 July 2024

19:20 7:20 Windsor

Ingra Tor

Daily Racing

25 EWNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@13.00

Void

The Crisford yard hold a poor record with jollies at Windsor (16% SR, A/E 0.41) and that makes Mezzo Soprano easy to oppose here. Havana Pusey is of note after her C&D success LTO, however the filly is up 7lb today and trainer J Gallagher runners offer very little value when they’re fancied with no headgear applied (10% SR, A/E 0.5). Harry Angel brings a 12% SR (A/E 0.41) with fancied runners in July which makes Beyond Borders hard to side with, meanwhile Tiger Bay carries a poor FlatStats rating with a deluge of negative stats for HA. Next up INGRA TOR makes plenty of each way appeal at 12/1 with 4 places; the son of Churchill hasn’t won since a C2 handicap success at HQ in April 2022 however has ran well in defeat on a number of occasions. He only lost by 1.5l LTO at Doncaster but has had his mark dropped by a pound so should be competitive and D Probert’s 22% SR (A/E 1.69) when riding for J Channon adds further confidence.

17:45 5:45 Windsor

Rokuni

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@12.00

Lose

-50

Bold Impact looks far too short for this novice event given Clipper Logistics’ 6% SR (A/E 0.19) with favs trained in the South and their 12% SR (A/E 0.29) with favs who are the trainer’s only runner that day. Hoodie Hoo comes out poorly FlatStats rated along with Aparajeo, however ROKUNI holds a solid draw in stall 11 and has the benefit of a experience from two runs. The son of Saxon Warrior ran a respectable 4th of 10 at Ascot on debut before failing to conserver his energy when upped to 6f at Leicester LTO. Connections have kept the gelding to this trip which should suit on a galloping track such as this and the owners are generally underbet (20% SR, A/E 1.49) so 11/1 each way seems fair.

13 July 2024

15:45 3:45 York

Chesspiece

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

I backed him LTO at Sandown in the Henry II, but that trip just looked to stretch the gelding too much, and I’m willing to take another chance on CHESSPIECE at 9/1 each way. The son of Nathaniel is a course winner and if able to return to the sort of form he showed behind Hamish in the John Porter on seasonal appearance there’s no reason he won’t be thereabouts. Nathaniel’s 21% SR (A/E 1.37) in Group races adds further confidence.

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15:32 3:32 Ascot

Saligo Bay

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@17.00

Lose

-50

My longest fancy of the day comes in the form of SALIGO BAY at 16/1 (4 places). On the bare face of things he won’t be able to reverse form with Coco Royale from a Sandown handicap LTO, however he’s nearly 8x the price of the filly and New Bay’s 21% SR (A/E 1.41) on uphill courses and 27% SR (A/E 1.51) with breeder China Horse Club International make me want to side with the gelding.

14:50 2:50 Newmarket

Watcha Matey

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

16/1 for WATCHA MATEY just seems too big with 4 places on offer. The Land Force gelding notched up successive victories here at HQ and Musselburgh respectively before giving a bold display at Royal Ascot in the Britannia. This looks calmer waters and sectionals suggest that he did too much too soon, so running off an unchanged mark with Land Force’s 28% SR (A/E 1.68) over middle distances will aid.

1 member found this comment useful

14:35 2:35 York

Emaraaty Ana

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@9.50

Void

My each way play here comes in the form of EMARAATY ANA at 17/2. The son of Shamardal may not be the force of old but won a Gr3 in Doha back in Feb and has ran decent races in defeat at Meydan and in the King Charles LTO. He’ll likely come forward from that run and a couple of positive stats for S Osbourne suggest that her mount could prove some value; a 19% SR (A/E 1.28) on runners dropping in class and 18% SR (A/E 1.34) on good to soft ground.

1 member found this comment useful

Starlust

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 3.00 on 13/07 at 07:520.10 deduction for Emaraaty Ana@10.00 withdrawn at 13:11R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.00 x (1-0.10) = 2.80

@2.80

Win

The jolly looks solid for the City Walls Stakes and therefore makes a bet at 2/1. STARLUST better efforts have come over the minimum trip, including a C&D success in handicap company in May, so the drop back to this distance looks a positive from a fair enough display in the Commonwealth Cup. The colt comes out top + blue FlatStats rated with Zoustar bringing a superb 61% SR (A/E 1.9) with favourites who ran 15 to 28 days ago and H Crouch a 35% SR (A/E 1.29) on fancied colts.

1 member found this comment useful

14:00 2:00 York

Cuban Tiger

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTETip made at odds of 17.00 on 13/07 at 07:480.25 deduction for Elnajmm@3.75 withdrawn at 07:59R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 16.00 x (1-0.25) = 13.00Best Odds Guaranteed SP 15.00 used instead of 13.00 BOG

@15.00

Win

16/1 for CUBAN TIGER seems huge value to me with 5 places on offer. A couple of positive stats boost claims for the son of Havana Grey; the most striking being K Burke’s 30% SR (A/E 1.58) with the owner and HG’s 14% SR (A/E 1.39) with runners who finished 7th or worse LTO.

12 July 2024

16:10 4:10 Newmarket

Thunder Wonder

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

In a maiden with three blue FlatStats rated runners, one stands out to me and that’s THUNDER WONDER. The son of Night Of Thunder carries the best draw of the three and ran admirably in defeat (4l 3rd of 8) over C&D last month. NOT progeny are in no way slow learners, but they often come on from their debut so I’d expect a more polished display today. B Loughnane is in decent form (19% SR, A/E 1.35 over the past fortnight) and the owners bring a couple of positive stats to boost claims; a general 42% SR (A/E 1.6) in July and 29% SR (A/E 1.57) with sprinters. 10/1 each way seems a sensible play.

15:25 3:25 Ascot

Global Asset

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@SP

Lose

-50

A number of positive favourite stats for A Farragher make GLOBAL ASSET easy to back at 3/1. Most notable is the jockeys’ 71% SR (A/E 1.68) on runners carrying 8-13 to 9-3 and 57% SR (A/E 1.41) on 3yo’s. He’s brilliant on soft ground, particularly for the W Haggas yard (39% SR, A/E 1.66) and his charge is 3lb well-in from a 1l defeat at Nottingham LTO. The 3yo won at HQ on his penultimate start and went close (neck 2nd) on his seasonal appearance at Windsor in May, so is clearly in good form. Ebt’s Guard is vying for market leadership however he comes out poor on FlatStats rating along with Cerulean Bay.

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Rebaatt

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@SP

Lose

-50

I really like the look of REBAATT at 9/1 each way for the opener at HQ. Involvement is a windy market leader given his owners’ 13% SR (A/E 0.37) with favs on good ground and Chantilly looks too head strong to take a punt at the prices. Royal Power is of note on handicap debut but I think the W Haggas runner makes more appeal on the back of his two successive wins recently. This is a step up in class from a neck win over C&D LTO, but the Dark Angel colt looked to have plenty in the tank so this is capable of further improvement. His owner brings a 31% SR (A/E 1.63) with Shadwell-bred runners to add further confidence.

11 July 2024

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Ancient Wisdom

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.50 used instead of 2.10 takenBOG

@2.50

Win

Potentially my only bet of the day comes in the form of ANCIENT WISDOM at 11/10 in the opener at HQ. Space Legend has come in for support, however Wathnan Racing’s 9% SR (A/E 0.41) with HQ-based trainers tempers enthusiasm. Royal Supremacy’s owner holds a poor 7% SR (A/E 0.46) in stakes races and R Moore’s 3% SR (A/E 0.3) on outsiders who finished 7th or worse LTO makes Portland hard to side with. AW gave a really poor display in the Derby but I suspect he just didn’t handle the track with the step up in trip. His previous run in the Dante behind Economics suggested that he wanted further so you can’t give up on him and W Buick’s 45% SR (A/E 1.34) on favourites who finished 7th or worse LTO adds further confidence.

1 member found this comment useful

10 July 2024

17:05 5:05 Kempton

Mutaawid

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@8.00

Win

210

When booking J Crowley to ride on the AW in 3yo+ races the Gosden yard hold a huge 63% SR (A/E 1.57) and MUTAAWID makes no exception here. Rhetorical is far too short given Wootton Bassett’s 6% SR (A/E 0.4) in novice events on the AW, and his son’s two starts have come on turf. Meanwhile W Buick’s 11% SR (A/E 0.46) on fancied runners who finished 7th or worse LTO makes Arabian Tribe hard to back, but Mutaawid ran admirably in defeat LTO at Sandown in a C2 maiden and the step up in trip here is likely to suit. FT cheekpieces were tried that day which are now swapped for blinkers and I suspect further improvement is on the cards. 7/1 each way taken.

1 member found this comment useful

07 July 2024

16:10 4:10 Ayr

Nikovo

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

Regheeb has removed NIKOVO from market leadership for the feature at Ayr today but I think the former can be taken on given O Orr’s 11% SR (A/E 0.42) with fancied runners at Ayr and the A Watson yard form (6% SR, A/E 0.49 over the past month). The D O’Meara runner won over C&D on his penultimate start off a 10lb lower mark but you can’t even argue with that rise given the nature of the 4l success. He failed to back that up at Doncaster LTO but M Winn is booked here to take 3lb off his back and the jockey’s 33% SR (A/E 1.42) on fancied geldings adds further confidence. 4/1 taken.

1 member found this comment useful

15:50 3:50 Chelmsford City

Hosanna Power

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@4.50

Lose

-50

Rowayeh is easy to oppose here given her poor FlatStats rating and O Burrows’s 20% SR (A/E 0.46) with favourites in Summer. Next up HOSANNA POWER makes appeal against at 7/2; the son of Frankel ran respectively on all of his first three starts without getting his head in front and finally shed his maiden tag on handicap debut at Newbury in a C3. He was unable to back that up at Chester LTO but I’m always happy to put a line through form from that venue and sectional data shows that they went way too hard out in front for it to be taken at face value. The 4yo is likely to be ahead of the handicapper still and a number of positive fancied stats boost claims further; most notably M Stoute’s 46% SR (A/E 1.43) in 4yo+ races, Frankel’s 41% SR (A/E 1.32) in 4yo+ races and S Osbourne’s 38% SR (A/E 1.61) with runners coming down in trip.

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06 July 2024

16:25 4:25 Haydock

Mister Sketch

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@13.00

Void

If he's able to put it all together MISTER SKETCH should at least be hitting the frame at 12/1 (4 places). He hasn't been able to build on a 1/2l defeat in the Mill Reef last season but looked much more promising LTO in a listed event at Salisbury. The drop into handicap company is sure to aid and W Haggas's 44% SR (A/E 2.06) over C&D boosts claims further.

15:15 3:15 Haydock

Maghlaak

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@12.00

Void

I backed him at 14/1 this morning but 11/1 still seems overpriced for MAGHLAAK with 5 places on offer. The son of Muhaarar is still fairly unexposed, even as a 5yo, and started the season with a bang at Goodwood in May on soft ground. He was less than ideally placed LTO in the Zetland and could never get involved so you can forgive him for that effort. A number of positive fancied stats boost claims; most notable being Shadwell's 56% SR (A/E 1.49) at Haydock, Muhaarar's 48% SR (A/E 1.82) at the course and C Hills's 42% SR (A/E 1.87) with blinkers (FT today).

1 member found this comment useful

14:25 2:25 Sandown

Ciceros Gift

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.50

Win

255

Perotto is a huge favourite of mine however he has to be opposed here given the draw and R Moore’s 1/11 record (A/E 0.24) on R Varian-trained favourites. Magic Memories carries a poor FlatStats rating and G Moore tends to underperform with his fancied runners in July (11% SR, A/E 0.53), meanwhile Dual Identity has to overcome N Callan’s 11% SR (A/E 0.41) on fancied runners over a mile. Classic Carries the worst FS rating of the field, also has the draw to overcome and owner J Wood’s 6% SR (A/E 0.45) in summer weighing him down. D Probert’s 6% SR (A/E 0.47) at Sandown and the draw is enough to put you off Metal Merchant however CICERO’S GIFT is blessed with stall 1 and has shown he appreciates soft ground (2/2). The son of Muhaarar completed a hat-trick before behind thrown into the St James’s Palace last season where he met plenty of traffic in-running. This is calmer waters, albeit off a high mark of 107, but he definitely looks a Group horse. 17/2 each way.

14:05 2:05 Haydock

Dramatic Star

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@SP

Lose

-50

It’s obviously difficult to put a line through Wild Waves for this handicap but DRAMATIC STAR should be closer to the market leader in price so 4/1 looks worthy of a bet. The Sea The Stars colt has progressed on each start with form figures 321; the last run coming at Hamilton over 11f last month. He won with head in chest (2.25l) and was eased down off an SP of 4/9 so there looks to be plenty in store on handicap debut. W Haggas’s 44% SR (A/E 2.06) over 14f at Haydock suggests that his charge will take well to the step up in trip, plus T Marquand is 4/8 (A/E 3.37) over C&D (2/2 when riding for the yard).

05 July 2024

16:15 4:15 Sandown

Al Mubhir

Daily Racing

50 WINNBNOTETip made at odds of 6.00 on 05/07 at 15:150.10 deduction for Regal Reality@9.00 withdrawn at 15:51R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 5.00 x (1-0.10) = 5.50

@5.50

Win

225

5/1 for AL MUBHIR looks decent value to me for the Gala Stakes. Lion’s Pride is 0/2 over 10f and Roaring Lion’s 11% SR (A/E 0.34) with favourites over this trip suggests that his son is short enough, meanwhile Checkandchallenge has to overcome C Shepherd’s 4% SR (A/E 0.18) on fancied runners wearing the visor and W Knight’s 9% SR (A/E 0.39) with fancied runners on Fridays. Savvy Victory has a poor FlatStats rating and Galileo’s 2% SR (A/E 0.41) with fancied runners carrying 9-7+ makes Prague hard to back. Knight has a deluge of negative stats to overcome for J Doyle, S Crisford and Mehmas, and R Moore’s 3% SR (A/E 0.3) on outsiders who finished 7th or worse LTO makes Regal Reality easy to put a line through. AM is a fairly consistent gelding who finished 2.5l 3rd of 15 over 8.5f at Epsom in May; staying on nicely in the latter stages. He’s ran twice over this trip before, and while he didn’t do enough to win, ran respectably enough. He’s had wind surgery since so looks worth a shot up in distance.

15:40 3:40 Sandown

Anno Domini

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.10

Win

I think the favourite is absolutely solid for this novice event. ANNO DOMINI comes out top + blue FlatStats rating from his fairly comfortable success over 6.5f at Newbury last month; quickening up nicely to land the spoils. The extra 1/2f today will aid and he’ll likely have learnt plenty from the experience. New Bay brings a 53% SR (A/E 1.65) with market leaders in C1-3 races and 50% SR (A/E 1.33) with favs returning off 15 to 28 days.

04 July 2024

19:35 7:35 Kempton

Cracksking

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.10

Lose

-50

The market leader looks solid here at 11/10. The Goat will do well to reverse form with CRACKSKING given the latter came out a cosy 1.75l victor over C&D LTO and is only 5lb higher in the handicap for that effort (TG is up 1lb). A case can be made for Simply Sondheim on his return to the AW, but he’s coming back off a 139 day absence where he was last seen losing by 13.5l in Bahrain. Ludo’s Landing is 0/10 on the AW, all of which coming in lesser company, meanwhile Graignes hails from the same yard as SS and finished behind him in that Bahrain handicap. It’s difficult to make a case for the bigger priced runners so the jolly is the bet. Frankel’s 55% SR (A/E 1.28) with 4yo favourites adds further confidence.

03 July 2024

16:55 4:55 Thirsk

Tinto

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@10.00

Lose

-50

I think a strong case can be made for TINTO in the feature at Thirsk. Everyone’s favourite horse, Summerghand, has toppled the unexposed Jehangeer from market leadership, however the formers’ owner offers very little value on turf (7% SR, A/E 0.46) and hasn’t had a single winner this season. The latter has had wind surgery so you can’t be certain that he’ll be firing on all cylinders, meanwhile First Folio hails from the woefully out of form J Camacho yard (2% SR, A/E 0.26 over the past month). Tinto bounced back to form over C&D LTO and is just 1lb higher in the handicap today. You can certainly mark up that effort given the race was ran evenly and he was parked out the rear, when he’s usually closer to the pace. M Dods’s 19% SR (A/E 1.67) with Llety Farms-bred horses suggests that their charge could prove each way value at 9/1.

01 July 2024

19:45 7:45 Windsor

Composite

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.62

Lose

-50

COMPOSITE has a 5lb penalty to carry here after a victory at HQ just 4 days ago however I think he’s still value at 13/8. The son of Cracksman looked better than ever after being dropped to a mile on his last two starts; losing by a neck here at Windsor then comfortably winning at HQ by 2.25l. I don’t expect the step back up to 10f to be a problem for the gelding and a number of positive favourite stats boost claims; most notable being G Boughey’s 61% SR (A/E 1.36) with horses who ran 1 to 7 days ago and W Buick’s 54% SR (A/E 1.41) when riding for the yard.

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30 June 2024

15:55 3:55 Wolverhampton

Atlantic Gamble

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTEDead heat Winner so return divided by 2DH

@3.00

Win

ATLANTIC GAMBLE is a worthy fav for this restricted riders handicap and 15/8 looks reasonable. Orbital has the visor fitted for the FT which I don’t see aiding considering Pivotal’s 9% SR (A/E 0.42) with fancied runners wearing the headgear, meanwhile Rogue Soldier comes out poorly FlatStats rated with the owners’ 7% SR (A/E 0.38) on Tapeta tempering enthusiasm further. Superspecialawesome has a deluge of negatives to overcome; most notable being C Planas’s 6% SR (A/E 0.44) at Wolvo and general 2% SR (A/E 0.19) on the AW since dropping to a 3lb claim. It’s difficult to make a case for the rest so it just makes sense to side with the hat trick seeking jolly. The son of Lightning Spear won cosily at both Kempton and Yarmouth respectively and while is now 10lb higher than the former, he’s clearly got more under bonnet. B Wilkie is one of the better pilots in here and his 20% SR (A/E 1.64) when riding for W Knight adds further confidence along with the yard’s 45% SR (A/E 1.25) with favourites coming up in class.

29 June 2024

17:10 5:10 Newmarket

Mafnood

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.50

Lose

-50

Majestic looks short enough here given J Channon’s 0/18 record at HQ plus 4% SR (A/E 0.19) with fancied runners on triangle-shaped courses. A case can be made for Qitaal, however he comes out poorly FlatStats rated and preference falls to his stablemate MAFNOOD at 7/2. The Kingman gelding has won just once from 9 career starts but has finished close in behind on countless efforts and excuses can be made for his 1.75 defeat at Sandown LTO. J Crowley brings a 22% SR (A/E 1.42) on horses wearing blinkers.

16:50 4:50 Newcastle

Bystander

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Win

225

Sea Legend comes out marginally top + blue FlatStats rated for this handicap but J Fanshawe’s 15% SR (A/E 0.43) with favourites wearing the hood makes me want to take their charge on. Forceful Speed comes out just behind SL on FS ratings but Amo Racing’s 15% SR (A/E 0.45) with fancied runners who won LTO tempers enthusiasm, meanwhile Belardo’s 6% SR (A/E 0.38) in summer makes Westerton easy to oppose. BYSTANDER looks a lively one however and 9/2 seems fair; the Dark Angel gelding is a course winner and excuses can be made for his no-show at Redcar LTO given the ground. He shed his maiden tag here at Newcastle over a mile and bumped into one NTO over the same C&D; Hopeful has gone on to run well in C2 and C3 handicaps since. BS’s owner’s 37% SR (A/E 1.41) at Newcastle suggests that the 4yo could prove value.

16:15 4:15 Newcastle

Dutch Finale

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

I’m happy enough to take on Invited here given Amo Racing LTD’s 14% SR (A/E 0.38) with favs on galloping courses and Ardennes is also easy to oppose given H Crouch’s 8% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied 5f runners and E Walker’s 5% SR (A/E 0.18) with fancied runners in June. The unraced DUTCH FINALE makes appeal though at 7/1 from the red-hot G Boughey yard (28% SR, A/E 1.32 over the past month). The owner brings a deluge of positive fancied stats to the table including a 54% SR (A/E 1.62) on Tapeta and 54% SR (A/E 1.99) with colts, plus B Loughnane’s 46% SR (A/E 1.61) on fancied colts adds further confidence.

15:40 3:40 Newcastle

Liamarty Dreams

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

I can’t quite grasp LIAMARTY DREAMS being 25/1 with 4 places on offer and that makes him a worthy play. He shed his maiden tag over C&D back in July 2021 and has kept a fair enough level of consistency since with a 21% SR in 33 starts. The Oasis Dream gelding started the season in smouldering form with a win on soft Doncaster ground and then Musselburgh when upped to C3 company. He’s failed to replicated those runs on two starts since but I never trust in Chester form given the nature of the track and should be capable of giving a better account today. A number of positive outsider stats for K Burke boost claims further; most notably his 10% SR (A/E 1.77) over 7f.

15:10 3:10 Newcastle

Onesmoothoperator

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Win

360

I’m going to side with old friend ONESMOOTHOPERATOR at 12/1 (5 places) in the Northumberland. The 6yo has been given a couple of months off after a 1.5l defeat at Southwell in April and is returning to the venue of his last win coming back in November over 12.5f. He's just 1lb higher in the handicap today and the B Ellison yard form fills you with plenty of confidence; they’re sitting at a 18% SR (A/E 2.12) over the past month. The trainer’s 22% SR (A/E 1.71) over C&D is another string to their bow.

14:50 2:50 Newmarket

King Of Conquest

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.38

Win

KING OF CONQUEST looks the one to beat here and 5/4 is readily available. The Lope De Vega gelding comes out top + blue FlatStats rated with W Buick’s 45% SR (A/E 1.33) on 5yo favourites boosting claims further. He won LTO in a C1 listed event at Goodwood, beating again-today rival Aimeric by a cosy 2.75l. It’s difficult to see that form being reversed given R Varian’s 8% SR (A/E 0.47) over 12f at HQ, meanwhile Crystal Delight has H Eustace’s poor 11% SR (A/E 0.48) with fancied runners on Saturdays to overcome. Deauville Legend is a course winner however Sea The Stars’s 9% SR (A/E 0.43) over 12f here suggests that his son might be stretched and it’s difficult to make a case for the remaining two. KOC has plenty in his favour and could just win by default.

14:35 2:35 Newcastle

Belgoprince

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@SP

Lose

-50

The jolly definitely looks the one to beat on recent form, however I think there’s each way value to be had with BELGOPRINCE at 9/1 with 4 places. The 7yo ran admirably over hurdles at Sligo LTO, just failing to peg back the eventual winner and losing by 1/2l. He certainly looks more comfortable on the flat so the switch to the AW is a positive in my eyes and the booking of J Doyle an obvious markup too given his 47% SR (A/E 1.66) with French-sired runners.

14:04 2:04 Newcastle

Albasheer

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@10.00

Lose

-50

Kinross is easy to oppose here given the booking of H Crouch who brings a 3% SR (A/E 0.26) on 7yo’s and the same can be said for Montassib given C Fallon’s 5% SR (A/E 0.19) with fancied Australian-sired runners. Spycatcher has to overcome C Lee’s 6% SR (A/E 0.48) on 6yo’s but next up ALBASHEER could prove nice value at 9/1 with 4 places on offer. I backed him at Royal Ascot LTO where he went off 2nd fav for the Wokingham but was badly hampered in the final stages and never got involved. The son of Shamardal is returning to the venue of his last win (5f) which came off a success over this C&D prior. He’s running off a 3lb higher mark than that latest run here but he looked in charge and full of running so I suspect he’s still weighted well over this trip.

13:35 1:35 Newcastle

Batal Dubai

Daily Racing

25 EW

@SP

Lose

-50

11/1 for BATAL DUBAI with 4 places seems decent value. The Profitable gelding won this race last year off a 1lb lower mark and continued to run well throughout that season except for a blowout at Ascot in the Shergar Sprint. He’s shown glimpses of old form so far this year and I think a return to this venue off this sort of mark will spark a revival in the 4yo. H Charlton’s 32% SR (A/E 1.64) with runners carrying 9-4 to 9-6 adds further confidence.

27 June 2024

19:15 7:15 Hamilton

Mutamanni

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.62

Lose

-50

I really fancy the jolly for the feature at Hamilton this evening and 13/8 seems fair. Zarzyni has T Barron’s 6% SR (A/E 0.36) with fancied 7yo’s to overcome, meanwhile J Goldie’s 6% SR (A/E 0.47) with runners over the minimum trip at Hamilton makes Jordan Electrics hard to side with. Never Dark is more difficult to rule out but the unexposed MUTAMANNI is in search of a hat trick after success at Brighton and Leicester, respectively. He’s been raised 5lb for that latest effort but the winning margin is deceiving given he veered left when leaving the stalls and a couple of positive favourite stats boost claims further; Showcasing’s 44% SR (A/E 1.29) in C1-3 races and G Boughey’s 48% SR (A/E 1.34) with geldings.

16:30 4:30 Newmarket

Able Kane

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

8/1 for ABLE KANE looks decent each way value here. The son of Due Diligence is a C&D winner which was actually his last success coming a year ago off a 7lb higher mark. He ran well enough at Chepstow LTO (4.25l 4th of 11) and should be able to build on that with the reapplication of blinkers. DD’s 20% SR (A/E 1.49) at Midlands’ courses, the B Millman yard form (33% SR, A/E 1.88 over the past fortnight on turf) and booking of O Murphy (given he’ll be flying high after Royal Ascot) can all be seen as positives.

16:10 4:10 Newcastle

Lattam

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@5.50

Lose

-50

Elnajmm is easy to oppose here given W Haggas’s 14% SR (A/E 0.49) with fancied runners carrying a 5lb claimer and next up LATTAM makes plenty of appeal against at 9/2. The Lope De Vega gelding won this race last year off a 3lb lower mark off what turned out to be a slow gallop. He’s not won since that but ran admirably on yard debut for J Camacho in the Lincoln (1.5l 2nd of 20) and just lacked a cutting edge in the Spring Cup at Newbury when last seen in April. He won this off a similar length absence last time so I can see the thought process there and a couple of positive stats provide me with confidence; LDV’s 23% SR (A/E 1.4) over a mile at Newcastle and J Camacho’s 33% SR (A/E 1.63) with fancied runners who finished 7th or worse LTO.

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