CalFergie

My wild outsider of Saturday night comes in the form of VILLAGE VOICE at 20/1 (each way). The mare by Zarak has raced just once for C Brown; winning a Grade 3 at Belmont a month ago when flying late. This is a much tougher proposition but the trainer will have learnt plenty about the 5yo and she looked to really appreciate the rattling-fast ground LTO.

Connections may well feel disappointed that SIERRA LEONE has won just once this season but the colt is notoriously slow from the gate and has been even worse on two of his four outings. He always finishes his races well and with a solid pacemaker in Contrary Thinking he’s going to be flying late. 7/2 taken.

Minnie Hauk is the rightful favourite for the BC Turf but she’s taking up so much of the market share that an each way play can be made and AMILOC makes the most appeal at 11/1/. The 3yo trained by R Beckett has had a superb career to date; winning his first five races when comfortably going through the grades and finally losing his unbeaten record in the Irish St Leger. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day, finishing 4l 2nd of 9, on what was his first go at the distance, and you can absolutely see the return to 12f as a positive from a decent draw in stall 3.

My only play today, and first of November, comes in the form of BOLSTER at 15/2 each way. Gethin carries a top + blue FlatStats rating but Ghaiyyath’s 15% SR (A/E 0.38) with favourites coming up in class makes his son short enough in the betting, meanwhile Liberty Lane will do well to overcome a 3lb penalty. Bolster hasn’t got his head in front this season but has ran well on all five starts; the most notable being a 3.5l defeat in the Gr2 Huxley stakes on reappearance and 2.25l loss in a Gr3 at ParisLongchamp. He took this race last year on deeper ground but the son of Invincible Spirit is versatile as far as the going’s concerned, K Burke brings a 39% SR (A/E 1.33) with fancied Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum runners and the owner a 44% SR (A/E 1.78) with fancied Invincible Spirit progeny.

PANDEMONIUM looks vastly overpriced to me here at 7/1. Time To Turn can be turned away from given C Appleby’s 17% SR (A/E 0.39) on favourites over 7f at Newbury, meanwhile Wechaad has to overcome Oasis Dream’s 4% SR (A/E 0.41) at the course and 11% SR (A/E 0.38) with fancied runners in Group races. Stellar Sunrise carries a top + blue FlatStats rating however P McDonald’s 1/59 record (A/E 0.17) here at Newbury makes him easy enough to oppose and May Angel is burdened with Dark Angel’s 2% SR (A/E 0.37) with outsiders over 7f. I can’t make a case for the remaining couple but Pandemonium has took steps forward on both winning starts and is worthy of a chance at this level. The son of No Nay Never began his career at Yarmouth on soft ground, showing plenty of class to draw away by 3.75l, and backed that up with another comfortable (2.25l) success at Redcar. He has got the huge step up in class to contend with but he looks a progressive sort who should appreciate the tough conditions with the in-form J Doyle on board (33% SR, A/E 1.35 over the past fortnight).

I’m fully respecting of Telemark here but the booking of J Mitchell is a huge negative given his 10% SR (A/E 0.62) on soft/heavy going and favourites hold a terrible 10% SR (A/E 0.34) over 7f handicaps on soft ground here at Newbury. You can get bigger on the Exchanges but 13/2 with the bookies for GLENFINNAN seems decent value and I’m taking him win-only; the 5yo by Harry Angel has ran admirably all season without getting his head in front, particularly on his last couple of starts where he’s finished 3l 4th of 11 on soft ground at Sandown and 1.25l 2nd of 16 at Leopardstown on good-yielding respectively. He took a keen hold during the latter so did well to hold on for 2nd, is coming down in class (4/7, A/E 3.08), has a big stride length to help in the conditions, M Dods brings a 19% SR (A/E 1.72) at southern courses and J Watson a 30% SR (A/E 2.32) in handicaps at Newbury on soft ground.

I really think PRYDWEN is being overlooked in the feature contest at Kempton this evening. T Marquand’s 15% SR (A/E 0.35) on Rabbah Bloodstock Ltd-bred favourites makes Dramatic Star easy enough to oppose, meanwhile M Prescott’s 13% SR (A/E 0.44) with fancied runners who ran 29 to 56 days ago suggests Synergism could lack some fitness. Duke Of Oxford could prove the fly in the ointment with his top + blue FlatStats rating, however he’s got a 116-day absence to overcome and looked to need the run when having a similar break previously. Prydwen has, by far, the best form on display and 12/1 looks huge value for his return to the AW. The gelding by Camelot has an exemplary 6/13 record (A/E 2.18) under this code and while is burdened with top weight he’s good value for it, running at listed and Group level. A drop back into handicap company at Chester LTO almost worked a charm (0.5l 2nd of 11), G Scott brings a 42% SR (A/E 1.94) for Blue Starr Racing and the owner’s 48% SR (A/E 1.98) in handicaps adds plenty of confidence.

I’ve got to have a play in the feature at Wolvo this afternoon and BROOKLYN NINE NINE could easily bounce back to form. M Appleby’s 14% SR (0.42) with favourites over C&D makes Coul Angel easy enough to oppose, meanwhile Miraculous is up in class after being a comprehensively beaten favourite at Southwell last month. Almarada Prince carries a poor FlatStats rating with a number of negative stats to boot; most notable being Prince Of Lir’s 1/58 record (A/E 0.16) with runners returning from 8 to 14 days away and I Furtado’s 4% SR (A/E 0.33) in C1-3 races on the AW. Tasleet’s 5% SR (A/E 0.46) in Autumn puts Fair Wind up against it and Prove will do well to overcome J Candlish’s 3% SR (A/E 0.34) with runners who finished 7th or worse LTO. This looks like it could go the way of a double-digit runner and of those BNN makes the most appeal; the No Nay Never gelding has had a decent enough turf campaign, notching up a win at Hamilton and a couple of places. He’s now running off his lowest ever mark on the AW which surely must make him dangerous. 12/1 (4 places) taken.

I think it’s safe to say that he’s got a big step forward to take from his listed win at Ayr LTO but ALMERIC could be anything and 14/1 looks decent each way value. You’ve got to be respecting of Ombudsman, however Night Of Thunder’s 3/21 record (A/E 0.46) with favourites at Ascot makes his son short enough, meanwhile I don’t like the form of Calandagan’s win here in the King George and he hasn’t been seen since. C Soumillon’s 4% SR (A/E 0.32) on runners carrying 9-1 to 9-3 puts Delacroix up against it and Economics, whilst carrying all the ability in the world, has a year absence to overcome. Almeric has won both his starts this season, albeit at listed level, but he’s done them in comfortable fashion and looks worth the step up to Group level. The A Balding-trained colt has been campaigned lightly, clearly with a tilt at this in mind and he actually comes out top on FlatStats ratings. K Rausing’s 32% SR (A/E 1.77) with colts is another reason for optimism.

I wouldn’t usually be dabbling in a contest such as this but CENSUS should be shorter than 5/2 so looks a value bet. Niminy Piminy carries a poor FlatStats rating so looks short enough, meanwhile Best Adventure has top weight to carry after a hugely underwhelming performance at Nottingham at the beginning of the month and is yet to prove himself an AW performer. J Goldie’s 1/31 record (A/E 0.18) with fancied runners in October puts Sea Legend up against it and Lady Chartwell holds a poor FS rating also. It’s difficult to make a case for any of the remainders so the jolly could win by default as well as on merit; the son of Persian King has raced just thrice, winning on his only start on the AW at Wolverhampton and excuses can be made for his run at HQ LTO. He didn’t settle that day so you’re hoping for a more polished display here but the Crisford’s bring a 37% SR (A/E 1.43) with fancied handicap debutants on the AW, Rabbah Racing a 63% SR (A/E 1.48) with favourites keeping to the same trip and 57% SR (A/E 1.34) with favs who are the yard’s only runner.

Coedana is the right fav here but I'm always happy to take on a filly running against the boys. Contacto will do well to overcome Sheikh Hamed Dalmook Al Maktoum’s 1/14 record (A/E 0.3) with fancied runners in C1-3 races coming up in class, meanwhile Gnomon has a lot to prove over this trip, especially on ground with some cut in it. Next up HIGH POINT makes plenty of each way appeal at 7/1; the son of New Bay is on his 3rd trainer in 2 years but things looked to really click over C&D LTO under similar conditions. He made all that day and is likely to be up with the pace but doesn’t necessarily have to lead on evidence of his win at HQ as a 2yo, which is a positive given the fractions Dino Bellagio is likely to set. The gelding us up 3lb for that win last month but wasn’t fancied that day so the market support provides confidence along with NB’s 24% SR (A/E 1.51) in handicaps on good to soft.

R Hughes does terribly with LTO winners (13% SR, A/E 0.5 when fancied in handicaps) and his 10% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied runners in October is more than enough for me to take on WDTL. Pacifica Pier could prove the fly in the ointment but the son of Palace Pier has to take a big step forward from a 11l defeat on handicap debut at Doncaster last month, meanwhile D Cunha also tends to have his operation wound down by now (1/37, A/E 0.32 in October) so I couldn’t be trusting in Kamakameleon. Cashbox carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside Coulsty’s 2% SR (A/E 0.32) with outsiders in handicaps and it’s impossible to make a case for the remaining couple so BLUE TO BLUE could win by default as well as on merit. The K Burke-trained colt has shown ability on 7 starts including wins on his last couple of outings, albeit at a lower grade, but I think his experience will come to the fore today. Blue Point’s 47% SR (A/E 1.74) with fancied runners from Middleham and Burke’s 27% SR (A/E 1.28) with fancied runners on triangle-shaped courses adds plenty of confidence.

M Dods also has the favourite here but I’m giving old friend CAMMANCHE FALLS one more chance at 20/1 (6 places). Northern Ticker will do well to overcome P Mulrennan’s 3% SR (A/E 0.29) over C&D and Sekura Group clearly don’t target these end of season races (4% SR, A/E 0.3), meanwhile Hammer The Hammer is hindered by Coulsty’s 7% SR (A/E 0.32) with fancied runners on pear-shaped courses and W Fentiman’s 4% SR (A/E 0.35) in Autumn. T Marquand has a poor record on Dark Angel progeny (7% SR, A/E 0.48) so Binhareer is hard to side with and Uncle Don carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside O Orr’s 5% SR (A/E 0.43) on runners carrying 8-12 to 9-0. CF lost out to NT by a head over C&D in August and is running off a 1lb lower mark here after less promising displays at Doncaster and Ayr, meanwhile the jolly is running off a 3lb higher mark so I think the price discrepancy is far too much. Age is up against him but there’s no-one more you’d want on board than C Beasley with his 25% SR (A/E 2.18) over C&D in C1-3 races.

Clear Force is too short here given his poor FlatStats rating, his owner’s 6% SR (A/E 0.4) in October plus Supremacy’s 6 % SR (A/E 0.37) with colts. Utmost Respect carries a poor FS rating also and while Mighty Magnus has to be respected given connections, I think SANDS OF SPAIN looks the most likely winner. The 2yo by Sands Of Mali started the season in tremendous form, notching up consecutive wins at Carlisle and Newcastle respectively and losing out by 1.5l at Newbury on handicap debut. Connections have since tried him in Group company twice, coming up trumps on both times, but excuses can be made for both and he looks incredibly well treated off a mark of 88 given a 1.5l defeat in a C2 stakes race in August off 91. The drop back to the minimum trip looks a sure positive, he carries a top + blue FS rating, the A Balding team are in fine form (22% SR, A/E 1.51 over the past fortnight), P McDonald brings a 21% SR (A/E 1.88) here at York when riding for Balding and SOM’s 42% SR (A/E 1.52) with fancied 2yo boosts claims further. 6/1 taken.

I’d make DOUBLE PARKED clear market leader here so 9/2 seems decent value. Leadenhall will do well to overcome O Orr’s 9% SR (A/E 0.49) on runners returning within a week, meanwhile Debora’s Dream is burdened with the booking of W Pyle who hasn’t proven much value so far in his career, particularly on ground with any sort of cut in it. W Fentiman’s 7% SR (A/E 0.48) on runners carrying 9-4+ and 10% SR (A/E 0.46) on fancied runners at oval-shaped courses puts Rhythm Master up against it and it’s hard to make a solid case for the remaining runners. DP could win by default here as well as on merit; with a top + blue FlatStats rating the son of Bated Breath is 2/2 over C&D, the most recent coming on his penultimate start beating DD by 0.75l. He wasn’t beaten all that far at York LTO (3l) and I suspect he’ll go close in much calmer waters (albeit up in class) off an unchanged mark.

He did me a solid one LTO over C&D on the same ground and I can’t abandon HICKORY today. Native Warrior is a worthy adversary given his form this season, however he’s now running off a lofty mark of 103 and should now really being placed into Group company plus Wathnan’s 8% SR (A/E 0.5) with 4yo’s adds less confidence. Hickory’s success here last month came in a classified stakes’ race so this is a step back up in class, but his runs at Windsor and Ascot in handicap company prior suggest that he shouldn’t be weighted out of things. We know he’ll handle the ground better than most of these, J Osbourne primes his runners for this time of year and is a top Ascot trainer; adding those together two together and homing in on the fancied runners gives a 43% SR (A/E 2.62). 5/1 taken.

I think BROSAY is a solid chance here at 5/1. Sondad has come in for support and is clear market leader on the Exchanges, but Washington Dc’s 15% SR (A/E 0.41) with favourites carrying 9-4+, J Mason’s 1/12 record (A/E 0.32) on favs in C1-3 races and M Easterby’s 2/19 (A/E 0.43) with favs in October puts him right up against it. O Sangster’s 11% SR (A/E 0.42) with fancied runners on Fridays makes Tuco Salamanca easy to oppose but Brosay is in fine form with consecutive wins at Windsor and over C&D respectively and can make it three. The son of Tasleet has been a consistent sort since moving to the P Attwater yard, winning on three occasions and placing on a further three. He’s on the improve, looks more than worth his rating of 97 now and a couple of positive stats boost claims further; the sire’s 44% SR (A/E 1.94) with fancied runners at southern courses and H Davies’s 17% SR (A/E 1.58) in October.

Mohaather’s 1/11 record (A/E 0.23) with favourites in 3yo+ races is enough for me to take on Gentle Warrior here and next up ROCK N ROLL PINKIE makes the most appeal against at 3/1. The mare by Sun Central has had a solid year with wins at Nottingham and York (twice), the most recent coming LTO in September where she won by a nose off a mark of 80. The 2nd that day got the run on her, so she showed real grit and determination to win on the bob and a 2lb rise in the weights shouldn’t hinder her chances. M Ghiani is a positive booking given his 29% SR (A/E 1.25) on fancied British-born runners and 3/7 record (A/E 2.43) when riding for V Furtado over 14f.

J Goldie has a poor 15% SR (A/E 0.48) with home-bred favourites (Goldie Racing Ltd) and that makes Eternal Sunshine easy to oppose here. Corolla Point has to overcome Blue Point’s 8% SR (A/E 0.26) with fancied runners in Scotland, meanwhile R Elliot is proving himself to be really poor value for his 5lb claim (4% SR, A/E 0.41) and M Walford’s 7% SR (A/E 0.3) with fancied runners in Scotland puts Kodiac Thriller right up against it. The ground is a concern for next up BRUMMELL but he is looking for hat trick of wins and 7/1 looks a decent each way play. The son of Dandy Man was really game when holding on on both starts at Pontefract and here at Hamilton respectively, the latter coming with T Kiely-Marshall on board who keeps the mount. The J Camacho team are operating at a 27% SR (A/E 2.17) on turf over the past fortnight and they target races at this course with great effect (24% SR, A/E 1.22) so their charge must have a great chance. Kiely-Marshall's 26% SR (A/E 1.69) with LTO winners and DM’s 22% SR (A/E 1.41) over C&D adds further confidence.