CalFergie

My strongest fancy on day 1 on the Dante meeting comes in the form of BINHAREER at 5/1. The son of Dark Angel was last seen taking an identical contest here at York back in October and is now rated 10lb higher; it’s a huge leap but is testament to the optics of that win (2.75l, not given a clear run) plus the other solid runs he gave as a 3yo, including a win at Ayr. The W Haggas yard have started the season well with runners on reappearance, especially when favourite and T Marquand booked (5/8, A/E 1.34), DA brings a superb 60% SR (A/E 1.52) with favs returning off 57+ days away when they won LTO and Marquand’s 40% SR (A/E 1.88) on fancied runners over C&D adds further confidence.

I wouldn’t usually be putting up such a short-priced debutant, but VARZI appeals at 5/4. Cut A Dash is burdened by R Hannon’s 10% SR (A/E 0.38) with fancied runners bred by Denford Stud plus DS’s 6% SR (A/E 0.37) in novice races, meanwhile Dandy Man’s awful 4% SR (A/E 0.47) at York and owner M Macleod’s 4% SR (A/E 0.37) on straight courses puts Spectacular Diver up against it. It’s easy enough to put a line through the remainder so the jolly could just win by default. K Burke’s 1/13 record with 2yo’ so far this season concerns me, but I think this’ll be negated by HG’s superb 5/6 record (A/E 1.56) with 2yo favourites wearing a tongue strap

Lake Forest looks the right favourite for the Spring Trophy at Haydock given his Group form, but No Nay Never’s 8% SR (A/E 0.4) with fancied 5yo’s and 13% SR (A/E 0.39) with fancied runners trained by W Haggas makes me want to take him on. Ten Bob Tony is burdened by A Lewis’s 6% SR (A/E 0.4) on runners coming up in trip, meanwhile S Hollinshead has an atrocious 2/196 record (A/E 0.32) in stakes races meaning Myal will do well to back up his win LTO. POET MASTER went down a beaten fav to Myal at Thirsk on reappearance in a conditions race last month, but I really think he can build on that today and 11/2 looks huge value. The winner had a run under his belt already, and therefore the fitness edge, but that won’t be a factor today and the son of Lope De Vega’s runs in Group company over the past couple of seasons looks decent enough form to be taking a contest like this. K Burke’s 38% SR (A/E 1.39) with fancied runners bred by Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum provides further confidence.

I’m having a couple of plays at Chester this afternoon, the first of which being STRATUSNINE at 15/2 with 4 places on offer. Roman Dragon has a phenomenal record here, but when you dig deeper he’s 0/5 when going off favourite which aligns with Heeraat’s 2/23 record (A/E 0.29) with market leaders at midlands’ courses. Canon’s House has plenty of negatives to overcome including M Easterby’s 9% SR (A/E 0.41) with fancied runners wearing cheek pieces and J Mason’s 9% SR (A/E 0.5) on fancied runners in C1-3 races, meanwhile Ruby’s Profit will do well to overcome J Doughty’s 13% SR (A/E 0.46) on fancied runners who are the trainers only runner at the meeting. Stratusnine may well be the H Palmer 2nd string but the son of Far Above has been in decent form on the AW over the winter, winning once and placing on a further couple of occasions. He’s shown he takes to turf with a win at Ayr and three runner-up spots from four starts as a 2yo and FA’s 20% SR (A/E 1.84) with moderately fancied runners provides further confidence of a good run.

I wouldn’t usually be dabbling in a class 5 handicap, but market leader NATIVE INSTINCT is screaming at me. The son of Night Of Thunder flattered to deceive on his final appearance last season, trailing 18l behind the winner, but I’m more than happy to forgive that run given it came on soft ground just 10 days after a run at Catterick. He’d been in decent enough form before that without getting his head in front but has slid down the handicap to an attractive mark of 74 in lesser company here. E Bethell is the absolute master at getting horses ready on their seasonal appearance in spring (33% SR, A/E 1.65) and brings a handful of impressive favourite stats to provide further confidence; a 50% SR (A/E 1.41) with runners returning off 57+ days away, the same SR (A/E 1.44) with C Rodriguez booked in C5 handicaps, a 57% SR (A/E 1.56) with the jockey over middle distance handicaps and 46% SR (A/E 1.39) with horses coming down in class.

I’ve got to be siding with the outsider of three here in HAAYIMM at 11/4. Conclave carries a poor FlatStats rating and Sioux Nation don’t tend to appreciate uphill courses so I’m not convinced that his son will translate a win and 2nd place on the AW onto the turf today. Proud Nation is also by SN, won once and came runner up on his only 2yo starts, but the Fahey’s don’t tend to have their runners fully wound up on reappearance, particularly their 3yo’s (7% SR, A/E 0.65), so I can’t be having their charge. A gelding by Gleneagles, Haayimm gave a fair enough display on debut in September at Beverley (4.25l 3rd of 8) before being put away for the winter. He returned with aplomb at Pontefract, taking a C4 maiden by 1.5l and looking like there was much more in the tank. I’m fully expecting him to come forward from that run.

Rumstar just has to be opposed here given R Hornby’s 12% SR (A/E 0.33) on favourites at HQ and 15% SR (A/E 0.4) with favs on Saturdays. I should probably be looking at those in behind such as Asfoora, Quinault and Shagraan but BECKFORD’S FOLLY is surely better than his reappearance run in the Abernant and I’ve taken 10/1 (4 places). Connections have dropped him back to the minimum trip which can only be a positive given his C&D win in the Cornwallis back in October and the combination of C Appleby and W Buick over 5f here at HQ is lethal (58% SR, A/E 1.91), especially on good to firm ground (7/10, A/E 2.47).

My only play at Thirsk today comes in the form of RHOSCOLYN at 18/1 with 4 places on offer. Blue Rc can be taken on given his owner’s 19% SR (A/E 0.46) with favourites in May and Sea Force is burdened by O Orr’s 2/24 record (A/E 0.31) on fancied runners bred by Rabbah Bloodstock. S James rides the course poorly, particularly over this trip (6% SR, A/E 0.52) so Flight Plan looks up against it, meanwhile D Hogan’s 1/51 record (A/E 0.09) on fancied runners coming down in trip makes City Of Poets easy to cross out. All-in-all this looks set up for an outsider and the D O’Meara-trained Rhoscolyn can capitalise on what looks to be a strong pace. The 8yo isn’t getting any younger but ran admirably here LTO in a 7f conditions race (2.5l 5th of 8) against much better opposition, with a huge SP of 100/1. I’m hoping that the cobwebs are fully blown off now.

I’m not entirely convinced that BOTANICAL is as ground dependant as people make out and I can chance him here at 15/2 (4 places). Mister Winston is a fair enough fav given a win here at HQ last month, however he’s failed to build on his two wins prior, and this looks a much deeper race. Bullet Point will do well to overcome T Marquand’s 9% SR (A/E 0.37) on fancied runners over 9f, meanwhile Fifth Column looks completely found out by the handicapper and Erzindjan carries a poor FlatStats rating. Botanical gave a solid display from the front in the Lincoln, perhaps just lacking a touch of fitness when fading back in the final furlong into 4th. I’d expect him to strip fitter today, he won on his only start over this trip coming at Hamilton and the son of Lope De Vega looks to be on the side of the draw where all of the pace is.

I think Marhaba Ghaiyyath can be opposed here given the C Johnston yard form (2/27, A/E 0.52 so far this season). Insanity carries a top + blue FlatStats rating but Nathaniel’s 4/31 record (A/E 0.48) with fancied 6yo’s puts his son up against it, meanwhile S Woods’ 4% SR (A/E 0.33) in 4yo+ races makes Savvy Victory hard to side with. Have Secret is more difficult to rule out but an each way play makes more appeal to me here and FLYING FRONTIER looks interesting at 10/1. There’s none better than J Tate at readying a horse for its first run of the year in Spring (37% SR, A/E 1.91) so I’m fully expecting his charge to be competitive, especially if able to return to the form of his penultimate win at Sandown off the same mark. The son of Farhh appreciates this ground winning twice and placing twice also from four goes, has 3 wins and a place from 6 starts over 10f and the trainer brings a superb 37% SR (A/E 1.68) with Farhh progeny.

Back In Black can certainly be opposed here given J Fanshawe’s 11% SR (A/E 0.38) with handicap favourites over a mile and D Muscutt’s 10% SR (A/E 0.49) on fancied runners in C1-3 races. Shout will likely come on from his run in the Lincoln, however Advertise’s 5% SR (A/E 0.48) at southern courses tempers enthusiasm, meanwhile the J Owen yard have had a torrid start to the season with just 1 winner from 35 (A/E 0.24) so Rogue Diplomat looks short enough. J Leavy is a poor jockey booking for Stem with his 3% SR (A/E 0.26) in mile handicaps, but URBAN LION can pounce here and back up a win in the Lincoln. The son of Zoustar is up 4lb for that effort but was narrowly touched off in this race last year and probably hasn’t finished improving. A top + blue FlatStats rating to boot alongside J Channon’s 38% SR (A/E 1.57) with fancied mile handicappers, his charge is sure to run well again at 10/1 (6 places).

The Godolphin jolly looks solid at head of the market for the Craven. It's no secret as to how badly A O'Brien performers over in Britain in April (1/26, A/E 0.13 when fancied) so Hawk Mountain will likely need the run, meanwhile Oxagon didn't look to see 7f out at Newmarket when tried twice so I wouldn't be confidence of him getting a mile today. The C Appleby yard have won three of the last seven renewals of this race and you've got to fancy the chances of HIDDEN FORCE at 13/8; the colt by Frankel won on his only 2yo start at Kempton in December and backed that up with another cosy success at the same venue in February, albeit over a mile this time. He's got the fitness edge over the majority and you've got to see further improvement on the horizon.

I'm going to have a couple in the Abernant, starting with BECKFORD'S FOLLY at 6/1. Time For Sandles has to overcome Ballyhane Stud's 2/21 record (A/E 0.3) with favourites on good ground, meanwhile Oasis Dream's 10% SR (A/E 0.37) with fancied runners in Group races makes Quinault short enough. You could take an each way price in here, and I will be doing so also, but BF looks the most likely winner in my eyes and I'm happy to take 6/1. The gelding by Lope De Vega carries a top + blue FlatStats rating and is getting at least 5lb from the field (excluding outsider Aspect Island). He won thrice as a 2yo, all of which coming here at HQ with 2 over this trip and one in the 5f Cornwallis so we know that he handles the course. W Buick's 43% SR (A/E 1.52) with fancied runners when the trainer has 7 runners at that meeting adds further confidence.

My each way play here comes in the form of ELMONJED at 16/1 with 4 places. The son of Blue Point has been a decent handicapper for most of his career, winning 3 times and placing on a further 3, but was put into listed company on his last couple of starts. First he gave a bold display over C&D to finish 2.5l 2nd of 9 in the Hopeful Stakes and built on that with a head success in the Garrowby Stakes at York. The gelding has ran well on reppearance on both occasions, looks worthy of a shot at Group 3 level and Shadwell's 44% SR (A/E 1.62) with BP progeny boosts claims further.

I think that the boys in blue are going to have a day today, starting with CROWN KNOTT in the Wood Ditton. Portcullis is weighed down by a deluge of negative stats for owner and trainer, but the most notable is the Gosden's 2/25 record (A/E 0.34) with fancied runners owned by The King and Queen, meanwhile Santushti will do well to ovecome Lady Bamford's 0/19 record with debutants at HQ. Diomed Bloodstock aren't known for producing early season runners (2% SR, A/E 0.24 in Spring) so North Beach doesn't look a backable prospect and it's hard to make a case for the remainder. No one knows what sort of level any of these are but CK is by Lope De Vega who brings a phenomenal 52% SR (A/E 1.32) with debuants who go off fav and when you did in deeper is 4/5 (A/E 2.1) over a mile. He just seems the logical choice and 9/4 seems fair.

I understand why High Storm is head of the market here but considering Nathaniel progeny perform to nearly half of market expectations when favourite here at HQ (21% SR, A/E 0.55) then I think his son can be opposed. Next up EVANESCO makes the most appeal to me; colt by Too Darn Hot won once as a 2yo and finished a neck 2nd behind well thought of Isaac Newton in a maiden at Goodwood. He was in no way disgraced when last seen at Longchamp in a valuable stakes race, finishing 6.75l 7th of 16 and is rated just 4lb higher for that run. This comes as the 3yo’s handicap debut and he’s up to 10f today, which is pretty much the farthest that TDH offspring can reach. D Egan’s 42% SR (A/E 1.6) on fancied runners from Middleham-based yards adds further confidence. 10/3 taken.

Damysus will have to run out his skin here to overcome Wathnan’s 1/14 record (A/E 0.18) with favourites in Group races. Boiling Point will likely come forward from his 1.5l defeat in the Winter Derby in February, however his owner/breeder’s 13% SR (A/E 0.5) with fancied runners in 4yo+ races makes his price short enough. PERSICA won this last against better opposition on ratings and must surely play a part at 11/2. The son of New Bay has shown himself to be a top-quality horse, winning 7 of his 19 starts, including 2 at Gr3 level and 1 at listed. R Hannon always has his battalion ready come spring and a 18% SR (A/E 1.73) for owners M Hughes + M Kerr-Dineen adds further confidence.

POSEIDON’S WARRIOR could be anything and can make it 2 wins from 3 starts in the Feilden. Wareeth has started his career well with a resounding win at Newcastle last month, however he carries a damning FlatStats rating with A Watson’s 4% SR (A/E 0.41) at HQ tempering enthusiasm further. Isaac Newton will attract plenty of attention due to connections, but A O’Brien does horrifically with runners here in Britain in April (1/24, A/E 0.14 when fancied) and R Moore’s 8% SR (A/E 0.31) on fancied runners over C&D makes matters worse. T Marquand struggles over this trip (5% SR, A/E 0.28) so Morshdi looks up against it and it’s hard to make a case for the remainder. PW debuted at Haydock in September, finishing a respectable runner up to the well thought of Lost Boys, and really came forward NTO when upped to 9f at Goodwood (5l win). The son of Sea The Stars will surely have strengthened up over the winter and a couple of positive favourite stats boost claims further; most notably Godolphin’s 71% SR (A/E 1.45) in 9f stakes races and W Buick’s 56% SR (A/E 1.48) over this trip. 5/2 taken.

It’s great to have HQ back on Tuesday and I'm fancying REAL GAIN at 6/1 in the curtain closer. Great Chieftain is a fair enough market leader, however Gleneagles brings a poor 16% SR (A/E 0.44) with favourites returning off 57+ days away and 4/23 record (A/E 0.53) with favs at Newmarket (0/4 over a mile). A Balding struggles to get his 4yo’s fit after a break (8% SR, A/E 0.53 when 57+ days) so Mister Winston could needs this, meanwhile Esherann and Mythical Guest hold poor FlatStats ratings with negative stats to boot. I can’t make a case for the remainder, but RG has proven something of an anomaly in his 4-year career to date and would surprise no one to get a 4th win on the board. The gelding by Profitable won his first couple of starts on the AW before putting in a solid display on handicap debut at York (1.75l 3rd of 6). He put another hoof forward NTO here at HQ over 9f, comfortably taking a handicap off 91, but since then has placed once in 7 starts. He’s tumbled down the handicap subsequently, but is now just 1lb higher than his last winning mark.

While I think that the jolly is solid I can’t shake the feeling that THE CALTONIAN is too big an each way price at 12/1. The son of Swiss Spirit is stepping back up to 6f after an underwhelming display over 5f here at Newcastle in February; he looked to find the minimum trip far too sharp off this sort of weight (unchanged today) when plonked out the back throughout so I’m hoping that he’ll be able to get competitive with the extra yardage. It’s no secret as to how much the 7yo loves it at Gosforth Park 32% SR (A/E 1.6), particularly this trip (4/11, A/E 2.1) and there’s loads of positive outsider stats for SS to add confidence; most notably 8% SR (A/E 1.99) on triangle-shaped courses, 8% SR (A/E 1.61) with geldings and 7% SR (A/E 1.45) in handicaps.

My only bet of the day comes in the form of SAILOR SONG at 5/4. King Of Thebes is an interesting newcomer for Godolphin, but is their 2nd string and C Planas has a poor record on fancied 3yo’s (8% SR, A/E 0.26), meanwhile Al Azd needs to overcome R Scott’s 4% SR (A/E 0.46) on Saturdays. It’s near enough impossible to make a case for the outsiders so SS could win by default as well as on merit; the son of Zarak is twice raced, firstly at Southwell in February where he finished and underwhelming 9.25l 4th of 6 and then put in a much improved 1.5l 2nd of 9 at Doncaster last month. I’m expecting further improvement here and a number of positive fav stats for the sire boost claims further; most notably a 5/8 record (A/E 1.81) on flat + left handed courses.