CalFergie

It’s hard not to fancy the chances of HEATHCLIFF here at 9/2. So Darn Hot has come in for support but Too Darn Hot holds an awful 1/47 record (A/E 0.16) in December with 15 of those being fancied in the market. Berkshire Whisper has A Balding’s 5% SR (A/E 0.4) in December to overcome and Hucklesbrook Aclaim’s 4% SR (A/E 0.35) this month too. Coul Angel got the better of HC (neck 2nd) over C&D last month off level weights and, while has been progressing nicely, we don’t know whether the handicapper has caught up with him now. I could make a case for El Bodon, but he hasn’t won since a C5 novice success at Lingfield in June 2023 and Churchill progeny don’t tend to improve for the switch to the AW. Everything’s pointing to the Kempton-loving HC; the son of Iffraaj has won thrice (7f) and placed four times from eight runs here. B Loughnane has got a good tune out of him on his two rides, including LTO and a win here a year ago, plus the young jockey brings a 23% SR (A/E 1.53) over C&D.

I think that outsider of the field, STORM CATCHER, is overpriced here at 8/1. King’s Code is an old friend, however N Callan brings a damning 1/24 record (A/E 0.17) on fancied runners wearing blinkers plus 10% SR (A/E 0.43) on fancied runners on Mondays, meanwhile Duke’s Command carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside Dubawi’s 16% SR (A/E 0.45) with fancied runners over C&D. Have Secret is burdened by numerous negs for W Fentiman; most notable being his 4% SR (A/E 0.26) on runners carrying 9-1 to 9-3 and the last couple are easy enough to rule out also. I couldn’t go each way given the small field but it would be no surprise to see SC bounce back to form in the feature; the son of Vadamos has struggled to put together two good runs all year but did win at Chelmsford in August off a 1lb lower mark. He's ran over C&D four times; winning once, placing once and losing by just 3l on another occasion, with that win coming off a 3lb lower mark. He should be competitively handicapped and S Pearce brings plenty of positive stats; most notably a 27% SR (A/E 1.77) with 7yo’s.

I can’t be having Blazeon Five here given his poor FlatStats rating plus Indian Haven’s 12% SR (A/E 0.47) with favourites on the AW. Enemy too can be opposed due to P Mulrennan’s 7% SR (A/E 0.35) on fancied runners in C1-3 races and I Williams’s terrible 4% SR (A/E 0.38) with horses aged 8+, meanwhile Prydwen will do well to overcome Camelot’s 9% SR (A/E 0.37) with fancied runners in C1-3 races plus G Scott’s 11% SR (A/E 0.48) with fancied runners who finished 7th or worse LTO. I backed him LTO at Kempton when he finished 2.75l 4th of 12, staying on well enough but never threatening the first few, and SAX APPEAL can be taken again at 5/1. The son of Saxon Warrior has been in decent form most of the year notching up 6 wins, 5 of which coming on the AW and he looks competitively handicapped still. SW’s 29% SR (A/E 1.77) with 5yo geldings, 38% SR (A/E 1.84) with them over long distances, adds further confidence.

DARK CLOUD RISING is unexposed on the AW and can back up a C&D win from last month here. Lethal Nymph has been in decent form on his last few runs, however a 0/12 record at C3 level makes him short enough at head of the market, meanwhile Paddy’s Day has to overcome N Tinkler’s 10% SR (A/E 0.49) with fancied runners when having two out that day. Badri would need to be well supported IMO and I’m not convinced he’s reversing form with DCR after losing by 2.25l here 19 days ago. Rhythm N Hooves meanwhile is burdened by his owners’ 5% SR (A/E 0.35) with runners coming down in class and while you could look for an each way play I think DCR is the value pick in the field. The cheek pieces are kept after that victory LTO and while the son of Dark Angel is up a couple of pounds in the handicap he should be competitive still. M Winn’s 27% SR (A/E 1.86) on DA progeny and Cheveley Park’s impressive 46% SR (A/E 1.68) with fancied DA runners adds further confidence. 4/1 taken.

Purest Time is a worthy adversary here but Dark Angel’s 52% SR (A/E 1.82) with fancied runners returning off a 300+ day layoff plus H Crouch’s 46% SR (A/E 1.79) makes DUBAI BLING a backable proposition at 4/1. The 3yo raced just thrice as a juvenile; winning on debut in a C2 novice at Haydock in June, finishing 1/2l 2nd of 9 NTO at Windsor and finishing a respectable 2.75l 5th of 9 in the listed Rose Bowl Stakes at Newbury in July. He made his handicap debut on the AW at Newcastle in January, coming 4th by 4.75l in C2 company and has been subsequently dropped a couple of pounds. This is an easier contest and the jockey booking has to be noted given Crouch has only ridden three times for H Palmer on the AW, two of which being successful.

Sarab Star is far too short here given E Greatrex’s 12% SR (A/E 0.34) on favourites in C1-3 races and 17% SR (A/E 0.47) with favs who finished runner-up LTO. Add to the mix J Channon’s 1/22 record (A/E 0.2) with fancied runners in Autumn and it’s easy to take on the jolly with next up AL ARBEED at 5/1; the son of Night Of Thunder won on debut at Southwell in March before putting in two fair displays on turf in C2 conditions races. He was put away for the summer, clearly with a winter campaign in mind, and returned with a solid 1.25l 4th of 10 back at Southwell over a mile on handicap debut. He lost nothing in defeat behind smart performers First Principle, Two Tempting and Dividend and is running off an unchanged mark over a lesser trip here. The 3yo must go close and his owner’s 48% SR (A/E 1.61) with fancied runners at left-handed courses adds further confidence.