CalFergie

Stick to the good stuff (the flat). Use stats and systems alongside form to find selections. Some tips are based on market support so follow my Twitter handle for updates - @CalFergie

1

Estimated Prizes
this month

£5

Estimated Prize money
this month

CalFergie's Tips History

All tips
All sports
13 June 2024
17:30 5:30 Nottingham

Khangai

Daily Racing

25 EWNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@7.00

Win

5

Stintino Sunset is easy to oppose here given D Hogan’s terrible 5% SR (A/E 0.47) when riding for J Feilden and 17% SR (A/E 0.5) with favs in Summer. Wallaroo carries a poor FlatStats rating with I Furtado’s 3% SR (A/E 0.3) at Nottingham adding little confidence, however KHANGAI makes appeal at 6/1 with 4 places. The Twilight Son gelding looked to put his reappearance run behind him at Leicester LTO (5.25l 6th of 12) and I’d expect another good showing today from a solid draw in stall 3 (low best). H Doyle’s 34% SR (A/E 1.41) with fancied runners wearing blinkers adds further confidence, especially given she was the last jockey to have won on him.
16:30 4:30 Newbury

Metaverse

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@11.00

Win

25

I simply can’t ignore METAVERSE at 9/1 (3 places) for this handicap at Newbury. The Starspangledbanner gelding has been progressing nicely on the AW, accumulating a win at Kempton and couple of close finishes at the same venue at the beginning of the year. He was put away after an underwhelming display at Newcastle in March but returned with aplomb back at Kempton in May; finishing a neck 2nd with application of the FT hood. I expect further improvement with the switch to turf, the D Menuisier yard are in fine form (20% SR, A/E 1.41 over the past month) and his 27% SR (A/E 2.24) with Australian-sired runners boosts claims further.
08 June 2024
15:35 3:35 Haydock

Pogo

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.50

Lose

-50

Witch Hunter is easy enough to opposer here given Siyouni’s 3% SR (A/E 0.18) with fancied 5yo’s, meanwhile B Garritty’s 10% SR (A/E 0.5) with fancied runners on Saturdays makes Ramazan hard to back. Caravaggio’s 6% SR (A/E 0.47) with runners coming down in class puts Tiber Flow up against it but POGO makes plenty of appeal at 6/1. The son of Zebedee won this race a couple of years back and looked like he’s returned to form when losing by a neck in a listed event at Haydock last month. With Noble Dynasty scratched this has opened right up and a couple of positive stats for C Hills boost claims for Pogo further; a 22% SR (A/E 1.54) with Zebedee progeny and 43% SR (A/E 1.79) with fancied runners for the Woodward’s.
1 member found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Haydock

Pink Crystal

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@SP

Lose

-50

I think PINK CRYSTAL is worthy of a play at 16/1 with 3 places. She's got the form, goes well fresh and a few outsider stats boost claims further; most notable bieng Shamardal's 9% SR (A/E 1.52) on flat courses and W Haggas's 12% SR (A/E 1.61) on good ground.
07 June 2024
18:15 6:15 Bath

Gap Year

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@SP

Lose

-50

Top + blue FlatStats rated GAP YEAR looks worthy of a play at 11/2. J O’Brien’s 4% SR (A/E 0.38) with sole meeting runners makes Lady With The Lamp easy enough to oppose at head of the market, meanwhile A Balding’s 9% SR (A/E 0.27) with fancied runners over 5.5f and 12% SR (A/E 0.41) with fancied runners at Bath makes Mister Mcgregor likely to prove poor value. Fearless Freddy carries a poor FS rating along with Big Bug but GY showed plenty of promise on debut at Windsor last month, finishing 2nd ahead of LWTL. I suspect the form will be franked with those two filling the 1st and 2nd places and C Bishop’s 32% SR (A/E 1.71) for The Woodway 20 adds plenty of confidence.
06 June 2024
17:10 5:10 Haydock

Arnaz

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.50

Lose

-50

I wouldn’t usually be tipping yet alone NAP-ing in a C5 handicap but top + blue FlatStats rated ARNAZ should take all the beating at 7/2. Woodleigh is nearly half the FS rating of the fav with plenty of negatives to carry; most notable being Inns Of Court’s 7% SR (A/E 0.34) with fancied runners carrying 9-4+. Alfie Boy is harder to oppose but I think he’ll do well to back up his success at Redcar LTO with a 6lb penalty here, meanwhile Glam Squad is likely to offer little value with his poor FS rating. Gundogan has a positive draw in stall 8, however E Bethell’s 10% SR (A/E 0.46) with LTO runner ups adds little confidence and it’s difficult to side with any of the bigger priced runners. E Walker’s 47% SR (A/E 1.44) with Mr L Bellman favourites adds plenty of confidence for Arnaz along with the owner’s 55% SR (A/E 1.54) with 3yo favs. His charge has a 6lb penalty to burden off a win at Brighton LTO however I don’t think a mark of 71 is his ceiling.
15:25 3:25 Hamilton

Dare To Hope

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@10.00

Win

20

The jolly comes out marginally top + blue FlatStats rated for this handicap however I think DARE TO HOPE, who also comes out blue FS rated, represents much more value at 9/1 (each way). The Camacho gelding won on reappearance at Beverley in April on soft ground before throwing in a stinker at Newcastle when upped a couple of classes. I’m willing to forgive him for that effort as he won on his previous turf start at Ripon in a C2 handicap so it’s possible that he just prefers the green stuff to sand. He’s got a positive draw in stall 4 and R Fahey’s 24% SR (A/E 1.82) for the Lets Go Racing 1 ownership suggests he’s possibly being overlooked.
14:35 2:35 Haydock

Middleton View

Daily Racing

25 EW

@23.00

Lose

-50

He sure has a lot to prove from his 17th of 20 debut at Newbury last month but I think a chance can be taken on MIDDLETON VIEW at 22/1 (each way). Bated Breath progeny very rarely give a good account FTO (6% SR, A/E 0.62) and his son went off 25/1 that day so clearly wasn’t wound up. Yes I’d like to see more market support here but BB tend to come forward from their first run (13% SR, A/E 0.92 on 2nd appearance) and there’s certainly a jockey uplift here with J Crowley booked; he brings a 9% SR (A/E 1.39) with outsiders on oval-shaped courses, 9% SR (A/E 1.38) with outsiders on flat tracks and BB’s 7% SR (A/E 1.39) with unfancied sprinters adds further confidence.
02 June 2024
17:10 5:10 Hamilton

Makanah

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Potentially my only bet of the day comes in the form of MAKANAH at 16/1 (4 places). American Affair carries a poor FlatStats rating with a number of negatives for Washington DC; most notable being his 10% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied runners in Summer (1/9, A/E 0.28 when fav) and 4% SR (A/E 0.42) on straight courses. King’s Lynn has never won off this mark or higher from 12 attempts, meanwhile Bergerac has K Ryan’s 8% SR (A/E 0.45) with fancied 6yo’s and T Eaves’ even worse 4% SR (A/E 0.22) on fancied 6yo’s to overcome. I backed Desperate Hero at Windsor LTO and he was withdrawn, however a case can be made for him at the prices it’s just whether he can overcome Captain Gerrard’s 7% SR (A/E 0.28) with fancied runners carrying 9-7+. I think it wise to look at the bigger prices and of those the J Camacho runner makes the most appeal. The son of Mayson has been around for some time now and whilst hasn’t won since October 2022 he’s gone close on several occasions. His run at HQ on reappearance (2.25l 4th) was positive enough and the drop back to 5f should aid.
1 member found this comment useful
01 June 2024
17:40 5:40 Doncaster

Stanage

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Win

35

He's plenty to prove from his two starts to date but I think a chance can be taken on STANAGE at 12/1 each way. King’s Gamble has come in for plenty of support and carries a lofty FlatStats rating, however Clipper Logistic's 11% SR (A/E 0.42) with fancied runners trained by R Beckett and general 13% SR (A/E 0.37) with favourites from southern trainers makes him hard to back. Aramram carries a poor FS rating with S Hitchcott's 8% SR (A/E 0.34) on fancied runners in 3yo+ races and Blue Point's 13% SR (A/E 0.42) with fancied runners coming up in trip adding little confidence. C Rodriguez has a poor 9% SR (A/E 0.47) with HQ-based trainers which makes Granger Bay short enough, meanwhile H Davies' 7% SR (A/E 0.42) with US-sired runners puts Run Away up against it. It seems wise to look at the bigger prices and the Gosden-trained runner makes the most appeal to me. Being a Kingman, from the Juddmonte juggernaut and top yard he's got all the ingredients to do well. I suspect a win will breed confidence in the colt and B De La Sayette's 24% SR (A/E 1.45) on pear-shaped courses adds confidence.
17:15 5:15 Epsom Downs

Not So Sleepy

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 21.00 used instead of 17.00 takenBOG

@21.00

Win

75

He’s certainly getting on a bit now but I can’t get away from NOT SO SLEEPY at 16/1 with 4 places on offer. The 12yo gave a solid account at Newbury LTO, losing by 3.25l after leading 3f out, dropping to last and then running on again. You would naturally think that a drop in trip is the wrong move, however he comfortably won (2l) at Newbury last year over 13.5f (heavy) off a 2lb lower mark and won by 4.75l at Pontefract over 12f on soft ground off a 6lb lower mark in 2020. The quicker ground may put him up against it but I think the price negates this and H Morrison’s 20% SR (A/E 1.52) for owner Lady Blyth suggests he could prove great value.
16:30 4:30 Epsom Downs

Ancient Wisdom

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.00

Lose

-50

It’s easy enough to rule out City Of Troy for the Derby, mainly due to his blowout in the Guineas, draw in stall 1 here and R Moore’s 13% SR (A/E 0.49) on fancied runners at Epsom. Los Angeles carries a poor FlatStats rating with Camelot’s 3% SR (A/E 0.19) at Epsom and 9% SR (A/E 0.34) with fancied runners in Group races adding little confidence. Next up ANCIENT WISDOM makes plenty of appeal at 6/1. The son of Dubawi had an almost-flawless 2yo campaign, only losing in the listed Eddery Stakes to the eventual Irish Guineas winner Rosallion. He was a losing winner on reappearance in the Dante but looked like he needed the run, finishing his race well enough. The step up in trip is likely to suit, he carries a 2nd top but blue FlatStats rating and Dubawi’s 47% SR (A/E 1.46) with fancied French-born runners adds plenty of confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
13:25 1:25 Epsom Downs

Persica

Daily Racing

50 WINNBNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 5.50 used instead of 3.75 takenBOG

@5.50

Win

225

I’m sticking with PERSICA here at 11/4 after backing him in his 4th LTO. Gleneagles’ 21% SR (A/E 0.42) with favourites on horseshoe-shaped courses makes Portsmouth easy enough to oppose, meanwhile Bubbles Wonky has to overcome a poor FlatStats rating and King Power’s 6% SR (A/E 0.24) with fancied runners on horseshoe-shaped courses. Persica has ran well enough on his two starts as a 3yo, starting with a 2.5l defeat to Guineas winner Notable Speech at Kempton and losing 5.5l at Newbury LTO when upped in trip. He was under pressure from a long way but stayed on well enough that day to suggest the trip is within his reach and there are plenty of positive stats to boost claims further; most notable being New Bay’s 46% SR (A/E 1.53) with fancied runners over 10f, his 38% SR (A/E 1.49) with fancied runners on stiff courses and R Hannon’s 17% SR (A/E 1.63) for the owner.
31 May 2024
16:30 4:30 Epsom Downs

You Got To Me

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@13.00

Win

35

I wouldn’t usually be punting in a fillies race but YOU GOT ME just has to be overpriced at 12/1 with 4 places on offer in the Oaks. The daughter of Nathaniel comes out 2nd top but blue FlatStats rated with a solid win in the Lingfield Oaks Trial under her belt. You have to commend her game nature that day and it can only be an asset in a more competitive field like this. Yes this is a step up in class but Nathaniel progeny flourish in female-only Group company (31% SR, A/E 1.9) and H Crouch’s 32% SR (A/E 1.49) for owner Valmont adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
15:45 3:45 Epsom Downs

Liberty Lane

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.50

Lose

-50

LIBERTY LANE is an old friend of mine and I think he makes plenty of appeal again today at 13/2. Bolster is the K Burke/Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum 2nd string and while clearly on the way up, is taking on Epsom for the FT and Invincible Spirit’s 6% SR (A/E 0.45) here suggests his son won’t take to its undulations. A case can be made for City Streak, however I don’t trust in Chester form, especially those drawn low. Derry Lad is trickier to rule out, but his run at Epsom previously when 6/4 fav leaves question marks. LL comes out top + blue FlatStats rated, over 20 points clear of nearest rival CS. The Teofilo gelding bounced back to form at HQ LTO, winning well over 9f off a 5lb lower mark. I suspect the step up in trip will bring about further improvement in the 4yo and Burke’s 44% SR (A/E 1.65) with fancied runners for the owner adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
27 May 2024
16:35 4:35 Redcar

Bystander

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@SP

Lose

-50

The drift’s a bit of a concern but I can’t ignore BYSTANDER each way here at 7/1. Maghlaak can be opposed given C Beasley’s poor 14% SR (A/E 0.44) on favourites when they’re the only trainer runner that day, meanwhile Bill Silvers is unplaced over 10f so far and Clipper Logistics’ 9% SR (A/E 0.49) with runners over that trip adds little confidence. Qitaal you can make a case for but K Burke’s 33% SR (A/E 1.61) for Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum makes their charge an attractive price. The unexposed son of Dark Angel made an impressive reappearance as a 3yo at Newcastle, winning with any amount in hand. The 4yo failed to back that up at the same C&D NTO but was given a small break from which he won again, this time over 10f at Lingfield. He was again kept to the same C&D but was defeated by 4l before running a huge race behind Crack Shot at HQ over a mile. Running off an unchanged handicap mark he’s sure to go well again here.
25 May 2024
19:15 7:15 Windsor

Desperate Hero

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@6.50

Void

0

My final play of the day comes in the form of DESPERATE HERO at 11/2. The Captain Gerrard gelding is a very consistent runner, has already won over C&D and placed in a novice event here prior. He put in a bold display to win from the front on heavy at Goodwood LTO and has only been put up 1lb for that. E Greatrex is a decent jockey booking given his 17% SR (A/E 1.31) on good ground and the J Channon yard are in good nick (22% SR, A/E 1.35 over the past month).
15:55 3:55 York

Midnite Runner

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

11/1 with 5 places for MIDNITE RUNNER seems very big. The unexposed son of Kodi Bear shed his maiden tag at the 2nd time of asking at Thirsk before being thrown into a C2 auction stakes at HQ at the end of the season. He looked completely out of his depth that day but looked to be on the right track when finishing 1.75l 5th of 10 at Beverley on reappearance earlier this month. That came on handicap debut and he runs off an unchanged mark of 76 here so there looks room for improvement. C Beasley’s 32% SR (A/E 1.79) on fancied runners at York boosts claims further.
15:30 3:30 Haydock

Euchen Glen

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@15.00

Win

45

Another old boy I fancy the chances of today is EUCHEN GLEN at 14/1 (4 places). The Authorized gelding has a long losing streak running back to 2021, however he looked to show glimpses of old form LTO at Hamilton when coming runner-up to Capital Theory in a C3 handicap. His only run over 2 miles at Haydock came back in 2018, losing out by 1/2l off a 3lb higher mark. He’s won on soft ground here over 14f off a 12lb higher mark, comes out top FlatStats rated and Authorized’s 15% SR (A/E 1.68) with J Goldie-trained runners suggests his son could prove value.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Haydock

English Oak

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.25

Win

62

My strongest fancy of the day comes in the form of ENGLISH OAK at 11/8. The son of Wootton Bassett had a fairly successful 3yo campaign; notching up a win at 2nd time of asking at Thirsk, a 1.5l 3rd at HQ and finishing the year with a neck defeat to Rohaan in a C2 6f handicap at Ascot. He looked better than ever on reappearance at HQ, losing to 2l Noble Dynasty over 7f. He’ll likely to come forward for the run and WB’s 52% SR (A/E 1.32) with favourites on galloping courses adds plenty of confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Haydock

Vandeek

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.10

Lose

-50

VANDEEK looked an absolute monster as a 2yo and if he’s retained or even improved on the ability shown so far then he should take all the beating on reappearance. The colt carries a top + blue FlatStats rating alongside Havana Grey’s superb 57% SR (A/E 1.41) with favs at northern courses and 56% SR (A/E 1.42) with favs in May. 11/10 seems fair but you can get 3/2 (Bet365 Boost).
13:35 1:35 York

Gulliver

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

I’m going to wade in on the old boy GULLIVER at 8/1 (6 places) for this big field handicap. The 10yo comfortably won LTO at Thirsk (2.25l) on soft ground, and while has been raised 6lb for that he still looks fairly well treated on old form. He’s a 3x C&D winner, all coming off much higher marks than this, and if able to return to the form of a 1l defeat here off 100 a couple of years ago he should be thereabouts. The Sayif gelding comes out top + blue FlatStats rated with a hugely positive draw to boot, plus The D O’Meara yard are in fine form (20% SR, A/E 1.4 over the past fortnight). A couple of positive fancied stats for M Winn boost claims further; a 41% SR (A/E 1.69) on pear-shaped courses and 36% SR (A/E 1.52) on geldings.
1 member found this comment useful
13:30 1:30 Goodwood

Newsreader

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Lose

-50

Handicap and turf debutant NEWSREADER looks plenty of value at 14/1 (5 places). The gelding firmly put his debut behind him when winning at Kempton in January and backed that up NTO at the same C&D. He looks a progressive sort and should take to the green stuff, as Prince Of Lir progeny tend to, plus K Philippart De Foy’s 25% SR (A/E 1.48) with handicap debutants is another glaring positive. B De La Sayette’s 24% SR (A/E 1.44) on pear-shaped courses and POL’s 21% SR (A/E 1.34) with runners keeping to the same trip adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful
23 May 2024
20:12 8:12 Sandown

Ice Max

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.00

Lose

-50

I struggled to separate Remaadd and ICE MAX for this however preference falls to the latter at 2/1 given a number of positive stats. First of all is K Burke’s 54% SR (A/E 1.38) with favourites on Thursdays and 40% SR (A/E 1.42) with fancied runners for this owner, meanwhile C Lee brings a superb 47% SR (A/E 1.27) on favs who won LTO. This son of Dark Angel was gelded over the winter and looked better than ever when notching successive victories at Bath and Musselburgh in April, coming on heavy and good to soft ground respectively. He looks more than worth the go at listed company today given he’ll handle conditions and potentially looked a Group horse in a handicap when demolishing the field by 5.5l off a mark of 97 LTO.
19:07 7:07 Sandown

Chesspiece

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@4.33

Lose

-50

I’d make the relatively unexposed CHESSPIECE market leader for the Henry II Stakes so 10/3 has to be taken. The Nathaniel gelding looked a stayer going places last season after success in a York handicap, 3rd in the Queen’s Vase, a win in a listed event at Hamilton and neck defeat in the Gordon Stakes. He flattered to deceive in the St Leger but bounced back to form with a 1l defeat to Middle Earth in an end of season listed contest at Ascot. ME looked good value for his win in the Aston Park Stakes (Gr3) on reappearance so the form could work out well and CP’s 4.75l defeat in the John Porter last month will likely be a springboard for bigger things this season. Nathaniel’s 21% SR (A/E 1.41) in Group races (3/12, A/E 2.0 over 2 miles) adds further confidence.
22 May 2024
20:30 8:30 Kempton

Davideo

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.25

Win

112

I think DAVIDEO is the right fav here and looks worthy of a play at 9/4. Liseo has H Davies booked who brings a terrible 1/23 record (A/E 0.19) on fancied runners over long distances on the AW, meanwhile O Murphy’s 9% SR (A/E 0.42) on Mastercraftsman progeny suggests that his mount offers little value. A Keeley can’t get to grips with Kempton (2% SR, A/E 0.25) and his 2% SR (A/E 0.32) on runners who finished 7th or worse LTO makes Cannon Rock hard to back. Appier has a number of negative outsider stats to overcome; most notable being R Havlin’s 2% SR (A/E 0.47) on flat courses and Holy Roman Emperor’s 2% SR (A/E 0.48) on Polytrack. Imphal I can’t give a look in either given his horrendous FlatStats rating with J Doughty’s 6% SR (A/E 0.44) on tight tracks. Davideo has raced just once at Kempton, coming on his 2nd start over a mile. He finished a distant 2nd but it was clear that the trip was inadequate, as his two wins over 10f and 12f on turf suggest. He won off a 184-day break last year so the layoff doesn’t concern me.
1 member found this comment useful
21 May 2024
17:10 5:10 Nottingham

Saji

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@29.00

Lose

-50

I’m not overly convinced that Niigata will be able to replicate his debut Chelmsford win now switching to turf given Showcasing’s 8% SR (A/E 0.36) with fancied runners over 10f. Las Ramblas is of interest now stepping up in trip on turf debut after a success at Newcastle FTO, however he’ll do well to overcome the draw with a jockey very much out of form (5% SR, A/E 0.28 for J Doyle this season). More Thunder has S Osbourne’s 9% SR (A/E 0.38) on fancied runners over 10f to overcome, meanwhile Leicester Square comes out poorly FlatStats rated with Masar proving to be a poor value sire (4% SR, A/E 0.39). I think there’s plenty of each way value to be had at the bigger prices and of those SAJI makes the most appeal at 28/1. The son of Invincible Spirit looked clueless on debut at Kempton over a mile, always at the rear, but he is no forlorn hope with such powerful connections. I’m expecting a more polished display with the experience, he’s got a decent draw in stall 3 and there’s no one else you’d want around Nottingham than J Crowley (32% SR, A/E 1.56).
18 May 2024
16:10 4:10 Newbury

Under The Twilight

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

My final play of the day comes in the form of UNDER THE TWILIGHT at 14/1 (4 places). The Twilight Son mare finished last season with a success at Salisbury on soft ground and showed her versatility when returning with a bang at Windsor last month on good ground. The handicapper has raised her 4lb for that and this is a marked rise in clas, but the form has worked out nicely from her last couple of starts so she could be getting better with age and M Blake’s 21% SR (A/E 1.74) in Spring suggests his charge will put in another bold display.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Newbury

Persica

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 17.00 used instead of 13.00 takenBOG

@17.00

Win

55

12/1 for PERSICA with 4 places on offer looks great value. As a 2yo the son of New Bay notched up a couple of wins from four starts; firstly at Salisbury in a novice event then on handicap debut at Kempton when upped to a mile. He was put away for the winter and made a promising return at the C&D of his last success; finishing 2.5l 3rd of 5 behind Notable Speech in a conditions event. If NS’s success in the 2000 Guineas is anything to go by then an opening turf handicap mark of 92 could be hugely underestimating the colt. R Hannon runners for M Hughes are often underbet (17% SR, A/E 1.67) and NB’s 23% SR (A/E 1.28) with colts boosts claims further.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Newbury

Elite Status

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@11.00

Win

300

I’m hoping that the ease in grade will work a charm for ELITE STATUS. The son of Havana Grey was a debut winner at Doncaster before backing that up with an emphatic display in listed company at Sandown a few weeks later. He was in no way disgraced when losing by 1.75l in the Norfolk and returned to winning ways at Deauville in a Gr3 NTO. The colt wasn’t seen to best effect in Gr1 after that, but I suspect the season had caught up with him and he was put away for the winter. HG absolutely flourish in the spring, particularly May (29% SR, A/E 1.55) so I’d expect K Burke’s charge to be fit and the trainer’s 32% SR (A/E 1.6) for the owner adds further confidence. 10/1 taken with 4 places.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 2:00 Thirsk

Mademoiselle

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.00

Lose

-50

2/1 for the jolly in the opener at Thirsk is too big to ignore. MADEMOISELLE showed plenty of potential on debut at HQ a couple of weeks ago, finishing 4.25l 6th of 10 in a C2 novice event. She was held up and it looked somewhat of a school day; I don’t expect that here with the experience under the filly’s belt and ease in grade. Plenty of stats for Amo Racing add further confidence; most notably their 60% SR (A/E 1.6) with horses foaled in February, a 59% SR (A/E 1.31) with runners dropping in class and 53% SR (A/E 1.32) with HQ-based trainers.
1 member found this comment useful
17 May 2024
18:05 6:05 Hamilton

Gobsmacked

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.00

Lose

-50

I wouldn’t usually be backing a debutant at such short odds in a lower-level event, but Havana Grey’s 50% SR (A/E 2.1) with fancied debutants in spring makes the well- backed GOBSMACKED easy to take at 2/1. Up The Clarets carries a poor FlatStats rating with O Orr booked who brings a 7% SR (A/E 0.49) for trainers who have 7 runnners that day. The once-raced Iwo Jima ran as expected on debut at Catterick a couple of weeks back, but the filly has to overcome Mondialiste’s 4% SR (A/E 0.49) with sprinters and the booking of W Pyle who massively underperforms in C4-5 races (5% SR, A/E 0.48). Kiss Me My Love is coming in for support however she’ll have to shorten further to remove J Fanning’s 3% SR (A/E 0.47) on outsiders over 5f.
16:25 4:25 Newmarket

Moktasaab

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Win

45

I like the look of MOKTASAAB at 14/1 each way here. The 6yo has proven a very unreliable horse and hasn’t won since a brace of victories in April 2022, however I’m hoping that the step right up in trip today off his lowest mark for some time can rejuvenate the gelding. J Gordon is a positive jockey booking given her 14% SR (A/E 1.45) on Fridays and 4/27 record (A/E 1.68) over 12f at HQ.
14:45 2:45 York

Botanical

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.00

Win

150

I backed him before he was scratched last week at Chester but I’m going to put my faith again in BOTANICAL here at 3/1. The son of Lope De Vega shed his maiden at Hamilton on 2nd attempt and backed that performance up a few starts later, showing that the handicapper had completely underestimated him. He’s been handed a heavy 10lb rise but I don’t think this is his ceiling for powerful connections and his owner brings a few positive favourite stats to boost claims; most notably a 63% SR (A/E 1.44) with LDV progeny and 48% SR (A/E 1.29) in 4yo+ races on turf. 10/3 taken.
1 member found this comment useful
16 May 2024
14:30 2:30 Salisbury

Torcello

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@13.00

Lose

-50

Potentially my only bet of the day comes in form of TORCELLO at 12/1 (4 places) in the feature at Salisbury. The 10yo made a winning return to action on heavy ground at Pontefract in April before running well enough on his next start at Thirsk (3l 3rd of 14). He finished ahead of Fairbanks in the latter, who has since comfortably won a C3 at Newcastle, and a return to the venue of his maiden success can certainly be seen as a positive. Born To Sea’s 16% SR (A/E 1.56) with runners from West Midlands-based trainers suggests that his son could prove value.
1 member found this comment useful
15 May 2024
20:40 8:40 Bath

Graffiti

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@6.00

Lose

-50

Plenty of stats make GRAFFITI easy to back at 5/1 in the curtain closer at Bath. Snapcracklepop has to overcome C Grassick’s 4% SR (A/E 0.15) with fancied runners stepping up in trip, meanwhile D Coakley’s 7% SR (A/E 0.35) with fancied runners at Bath makes Golden Phase hard to back. The Bay Warrior has shown little ability on the turf in 4 starts, so a line can be put through him, meanwhile Ulysses’s 3% SR (A/E 0.19) ay horseshoe-shaped courses suggests Trojan Truth with repeat his poor maiden run here. You could perhaps go into the bigger prices but I think it wise to stick with Graffiti given the booking of T Fisher who brings a deluge of positive favourite stats; most notable being his 63% SR (A/E 1.68) in C6 races and 58% SR (A/E 1.62) at Southern courses.
1 member found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 York

Cold Case

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@21.00

Void

0

A case can be made for plenty in here but I think 20/1 for COLD CASE is superb value with 4 places on offer. The Showcasing colt has shown up on all-bar 1 of his 10 starts, accumulating 4 wins and a further 4 places. His maiden success came over C&D and he was in no way disgraced when returning to the same venue a couple of starts later in the Gimcrack (5l 3rd of 12 behind Noble Style). Connections then eased him in class where he won a valuable 2yo stakes race at Doncaster, backing that up with the listed 2yo trophy at Redcar NTO. He won on reappearance as a 3yo at Ascot but blew out in the Sandy Lane at Haydock before being given a small break. He returned with a ½ defeat in the Hackwood at Newbury and ran a good race at Deauville in the Maurice de Gheest on his last start. I expect him to be fully tuned up today given his reappearance run last year and the K Burke yard form (23% SR, A/E 1.26 over the past month). Burke’s 32% SR (A/E 1.62) for the owner adds further confidence.
1 member found this comment useful

Shouldvebeenaring

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Win

45

My first pick, Cold Case, is now a NR so I'm going to switch to my 2nd on the shortlist, SHOULDVEBEENARING. He's shown he's up to Gr1 level in the past and excuses can be made for his two runs so far this season. Havana Grey tend to flourish in the spring, particularly May (30% SR, A/E 1.6), so 14/1 with 4 places looks fair value.
14:45 2:45 York

Great Ambassador

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Win

45

I think a chance can be taken on GREAT AMBASSADOR at 14/1 with 6 places. The son of Exceed and Excel looked flat on seasonal appearance at HQ last month however he hadn’t been seen since August 2022 so was entitled to the run. His last win came over C&D in a listed event but in terms of a handicap that came over 6f at HQ a few years ago. He’s now back down to that same mark so looks weighted to go well for a yard who’ve started the season all-guns blazing (26% SR, A/E 1.57).
14 May 2024
16:15 4:15 Beverley

War Chant

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Win

55

I’d usually be sitting out a low-quality day but I can’t ignore WAR CHANT at 16/1 with 5 places on offer. A Rawlinson has started the season poorly (0/22) which fits in with his historic 4% SR (A/E 0.42) in May so you have to be opposing Beltane, meanwhile Young Fire has an equally as poor booking in D Nolan with his 4% SR (A/E 0.45) on horses aged 8yo+. F McManoman doesn’t get on with mares (1/81, A/E 0.14) and N Tinkler’s 7% SR (A/E 0.37) with fancied 6yo’s makes Strangerontheshore hard to back. B Robinson has a terrible record with horses returning off a break (1/22, A/E 0.18 when 57+ days off and fancied) so you’d expect Langton World to do too much too soon, meanwhile Lenny’s Spirit has to overcome E Dunlop’s 3% SR (A/E 0.14) with fancied runners over 8.5f. You’re now getting into the double digits and of those WC makes the most appeal; if you excuse him for his last two runs he had a decent 3yo campaign including a hat trick of successive wins. He ran well of a break last year and has a positive draw in stall 13 (higher the better).
12 May 2024
19:00 7:00 Newcastle

Prince of Zenda

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Win

45

I suspect that PRINCE OF ZENDA is being overlooked in this very open handicap and 16/1 (4 places) has to be taken. The son of Kingman is 2/3 this year, one of those wins coming over C&D back in January, and while 9lb higher in the handicap today he’s still early enough on in his career to know where his ceiling lies. I’m willing to forgive the 4yo for his blowout at Lingfield LTO because he was at the rear and never involved.
18:00 6:00 Newcastle

Aerospace

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

I really want to take on Fairbanks here given A Balding’s 17% SR (A/E 0.44) with G Strawbridge-bred favourites along with the owners’ 22% SR (A/E 0.49) with Irish-sired favs. I’ve come down on two, first being 2nd favourite AEROSPACE at 4/1. The Sea The Stars gelding comes out top + blue FlatStats rated and is in search of a hat trick of wins after success at Wolverhampton (9.5f) and Newcastle (10f) respectively. Connections are upping him in trip and class today but the nature of those victories suggests that he’ll improve further over a longer trip.

Artisan Dancer

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Win

45

The 2nd I like the look of in this field is ARTISAN DANCER at 14/1 (4 places). The 4yo is an incredibly consistent sort, finishing on the premise more often than not, and has notched up 5W 5P from 20 starts on the AW. He’s dropping back to 12.5f off an unchanged handicap mark after just failing to cling on for 2nd over 14f at Southwell LTO and should be able to push my main selection, Aerospace, all the way.
11 May 2024
15:30 3:30 Nottingham

Eeh Bah Gum

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

M Appleby is the master of “yard switching” (21% SR, A/E 1.49) and his 34% SR (A/E 1.5) over 5f at Nottingham makes EEH BAH GUM easy to back here at 12/1 each way. The son of Dandy Man has come in a couple of points this morning so the market could potentially be indicating he’s fancied today and F Larson’s 24% SR (A/E 2.18) at the course when riding for Appleby adds further confidence of a good run.
15:00 3:00 Lingfield

Imperial Sovereign

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@15.00

Lose

-50

I really think 14/1 each way for IMPERIAL SOVEREIGN in the Derby trial at Lingfield this afternoon is decent value. The Frankel colt made a winning debut at Newcastle back in December and was just denied on his next start at Kempton, missing the break. I suspect the switch to turf will bring out further improvement and K Burke’s 40% SR (A/E 2.19) with the owner suggests that their charge is a big enough price.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Ascot

Jumby

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@17.00

Lose

-50

I’m going to take a flyer on JUMBY at 16/1 (6 places) to bounce back to form now returning to handicaps. The son of New Bay won a Group 3 at Haydock in June last year before backing that up with a solid 2l defeat at HQ NTO. He failed to build on that after a small break but did show flashes of improvement on seasonal appearance at Riyadh in February and I hope a run back at the venue of his debut success will spark him back to life. Plenty of positive stats boost claims further; most notably E Johnson Houghton’s 22% (A/E 1.56) for the owner, her 28% SR (A/E 1.6) with NB progeny and NB’s 22% SR (A/E 1.31) over 7f.
1 member found this comment useful
10 May 2024
20:18 8:18 Nottingham

Munificent

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

The draw of stall 2 for MUNIFICENT makes him really easy to back at 10/1 with 4 places on offer. Showalong is the clear favourite, however J Garritty’s 9% SR (A/E 0.49) on fancied 6yo’s makes him hard to back, meanwhile Loco Lobo comes out poorly FlatStats rated with an absolute deluge of negatives for sire Captain Gerrard and trainer L Williamson. A case can be made for Yazaman, who’s next door to my pick, but the Pearl Secret gelding has been running well in defeat all winter and been given 6 weeks off. He’s relatively unexposed on the turf but has won at Yarmouth off a 2lb lower mark and a couple of positive stats for PS brings a couple of glaring positives; a 20% SR (A/E 1.68) over 5f and 17% SR (A/E 1.75) in Spring.
16:15 4:15 Chester

Law Of The Sea

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

9/2 for LAW OF THE SEA looks solid value to me against Prince Alex. The latter has to overcome D Ffrench Davis’s 12% SR (A/E 0.47) with fancied runners when the yard have just 2 runners that day and D Egan’s 14% SR (A/E 0.4) on favourites at tight courses. I Williams throws plenty of darts at this race and won it last year with Zinc White; he’s got a battalion in here again today but LOTS is the most fancied. The son of Golden Horn failed to beat a rival home on his last two starts in 2023 and is clearly one to throw a stinker in occasionally, but a 1.75l defeat in the Chester Cup on yard debut last year suggests that a return to this venue off a 2lb lower mark could rejuvenate him. J Crowley’s 32% SR (A/E 1.38) on fancied runners from West Midlands-based trainers adds further confidence.
15:05 3:05 Chester

Israr

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-50

You can get 11/4 for ISRAR in the Huxley at Chester with Betway Boost and that seems fantastic value to me. Passenger is coming in for support but Ulysses brings a deluge of negatives to temper enthusiasm; most notably a 14% SR (A/E 0.49) with fancied runners in May and 11% SR (A/E 0.39) with fancied runners carrying 9-1 to 9-3. Israr meanwhile ran a solid race in the Gordon Richards (Gr3) at Sandown last month (1l 3rd of 7), coming on the back of a couple of months off. You’d expect him to strip even fitter here and should be able to see out his effort better on the faster surface. The 5yo comes out top + blue FlatStats rated with plenty of positive stats to boot; most notable being J Crowley’s 46% SR (A/E 1.5) on favourites wearing blinkers, Shadwell’s (breeder) 44% SR (A/E 1.28) with favs returning off 8-14 days away and the owners’ 40% SR (A/E 1.26) with fancied runners on left handed courses.
14:35 2:35 Chester

Botanical

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@3.75

Void

0

My strongest fancy of the day comes in the form of BOTANICAL at 11/4. City Streak has come in for support, and could potentially remove the favourite from market leadership, however O Murphy has a terrible record at Chester (8% SR, A/E 0.34 when fancied), A Balding underperforms over C&D (13% SR, A/E 0.45 when fancied) and Cityscape’s 10% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied runners in C1-3 races suggests that his son offers little value. Botanical meanwhile is an unexposed 4yo with 2 wins and 2 places to his name already from 5 starts last season. He finished his 3yo campaign with a C3 success at Hamilton on soft ground, laughing at the handicapper as he passed the post 6l ahead of the 2nd, and a 10lb rise shouldn’t be enough to stop the gelding on reappearance. His owner’s 65% SR (A/E 1.48) with Lope De Vega favourites adds further confidence.
14:05 2:05 Chester

Ephesus

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@2.87

Lose

-50

Mr Hampstead is loveless in the market for this maiden while EPHESUS is taking all of the money, so 9/5 is backable for the latter. The Galileo colt ran well enough (2.75l) in behind his odds-on stable companion, London City, on debut at Dundalk last month, finishing his race off well. The step up in trip should therefore suit him and it’s no secret as to how well A O’Brien does at Chester (65% SR, A/E 1.53 when fancied) so they’ve clearly flown the 3yo here for a reason.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.

By using this site you confirm you are 18+ and consent to our use of cookies and processing of personal data as set out in our Privacy Policy
Got it!