CalFergie

Popmaster can be opposed here given his 0/8 record in C2 races on the AW, most recently finishing 2.75l 3rd of 5 at Southwell just 6 days ago. MOUNT ATHOS makes the most appeal against; the son of Dark Angel is a C&D specialist (5/5) with the last win coming in March off the same mark. He’s been running in listed company in Deauville on the AW recently, giving solid displays on both occasions (2l 2nd of 15 and 3l 3rd of 15 respectively) so must surely give another good account. He carries a top + blue FlatStats rating along with a couple of positive stats to boost claims further; his owner’s 46% SR (A/E 1.39) with fancied Rabbah Bloodstock-bred runners and J Tate’s 29% SR (A/E 1.35) with geldings. 7/2 taken.

Another Run is another favourite easy enough to oppose today, mainly due to the B Millman yard form, Zoffany’s 2/27 record (A/E 0.36) with fancied 6yo’s and H Davies’s 18% SR (A/E 0.5) on gelding market leaders. Enemy has been a grand old servant for connections, but I Williams does terribly with these older horses (3% SR, A/E 0.32 with 8yo+) and he rest of the field all carry poor FlatStats ratings apart from ASSAIL. The No Nay Never gelding was never involved at Southwell LTO in November; being held up out the back and unable to make any inroads. We’ve seen on all his wins and places that he needs to be midfield at worst so I’m hoping that L Morris gets his tactics right this time and D Simcock’s 43% SR (A/E 1.67) with fancied 6yo’s boosts claims further. 7/2 taken.

My each way play here comes in the form of CABURN at 12/1 with 4 places. The J Tate-trained gelding is clearly highly thought of given he won his first couple of races, including a valuable stakes race at Newbury, then ran in the Gimcrack finishing 3.5l 5th of 10. He probably hasn’t progressed as connections would’ve liked but has still operated at a high level all through his 3yo campaign, finishing with a comfortable 3l success at Yarmouth in September. This is the son of Twilight Son’s first go on the AW which I see as a positive, especially as this is just his 3rd run for J Tate and the yard are in fine form (3/6, A/E 2.22 over the past fortnight). His 30% SR (A/E 1.36) with geldings is another reason for optimism that the trainer will eek more out of this 4yo.

It’s hard not to fancy the chances of HEATHCLIFF here at 9/2. So Darn Hot has come in for support but Too Darn Hot holds an awful 1/47 record (A/E 0.16) in December with 15 of those being fancied in the market. Berkshire Whisper has A Balding’s 5% SR (A/E 0.4) in December to overcome and Hucklesbrook Aclaim’s 4% SR (A/E 0.35) this month too. Coul Angel got the better of HC (neck 2nd) over C&D last month off level weights and, while has been progressing nicely, we don’t know whether the handicapper has caught up with him now. I could make a case for El Bodon, but he hasn’t won since a C5 novice success at Lingfield in June 2023 and Churchill progeny don’t tend to improve for the switch to the AW. Everything’s pointing to the Kempton-loving HC; the son of Iffraaj has won thrice (7f) and placed four times from eight runs here. B Loughnane has got a good tune out of him on his two rides, including LTO and a win here a year ago, plus the young jockey brings a 23% SR (A/E 1.53) over C&D.

I think that outsider of the field, STORM CATCHER, is overpriced here at 8/1. King’s Code is an old friend, however N Callan brings a damning 1/24 record (A/E 0.17) on fancied runners wearing blinkers plus 10% SR (A/E 0.43) on fancied runners on Mondays, meanwhile Duke’s Command carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside Dubawi’s 16% SR (A/E 0.45) with fancied runners over C&D. Have Secret is burdened by numerous negs for W Fentiman; most notable being his 4% SR (A/E 0.26) on runners carrying 9-1 to 9-3 and the last couple are easy enough to rule out also. I couldn’t go each way given the small field but it would be no surprise to see SC bounce back to form in the feature; the son of Vadamos has struggled to put together two good runs all year but did win at Chelmsford in August off a 1lb lower mark. He's ran over C&D four times; winning once, placing once and losing by just 3l on another occasion, with that win coming off a 3lb lower mark. He should be competitively handicapped and S Pearce brings plenty of positive stats; most notably a 27% SR (A/E 1.77) with 7yo’s.

I can’t be having Blazeon Five here given his poor FlatStats rating plus Indian Haven’s 12% SR (A/E 0.47) with favourites on the AW. Enemy too can be opposed due to P Mulrennan’s 7% SR (A/E 0.35) on fancied runners in C1-3 races and I Williams’s terrible 4% SR (A/E 0.38) with horses aged 8+, meanwhile Prydwen will do well to overcome Camelot’s 9% SR (A/E 0.37) with fancied runners in C1-3 races plus G Scott’s 11% SR (A/E 0.48) with fancied runners who finished 7th or worse LTO. I backed him LTO at Kempton when he finished 2.75l 4th of 12, staying on well enough but never threatening the first few, and SAX APPEAL can be taken again at 5/1. The son of Saxon Warrior has been in decent form most of the year notching up 6 wins, 5 of which coming on the AW and he looks competitively handicapped still. SW’s 29% SR (A/E 1.77) with 5yo geldings, 38% SR (A/E 1.84) with them over long distances, adds further confidence.