CalFergie

Rumstar just has to be opposed here given R Hornby’s 12% SR (A/E 0.33) on favourites at HQ and 15% SR (A/E 0.4) with favs on Saturdays. I should probably be looking at those in behind such as Asfoora, Quinault and Shagraan but BECKFORD’S FOLLY is surely better than his reappearance run in the Abernant and I’ve taken 10/1 (4 places). Connections have dropped him back to the minimum trip which can only be a positive given his C&D win in the Cornwallis back in October and the combination of C Appleby and W Buick over 5f here at HQ is lethal (58% SR, A/E 1.91), especially on good to firm ground (7/10, A/E 2.47).

My only play at Thirsk today comes in the form of RHOSCOLYN at 18/1 with 4 places on offer. Blue Rc can be taken on given his owner’s 19% SR (A/E 0.46) with favourites in May and Sea Force is burdened by O Orr’s 2/24 record (A/E 0.31) on fancied runners bred by Rabbah Bloodstock. S James rides the course poorly, particularly over this trip (6% SR, A/E 0.52) so Flight Plan looks up against it, meanwhile D Hogan’s 1/51 record (A/E 0.09) on fancied runners coming down in trip makes City Of Poets easy to cross out. All-in-all this looks set up for an outsider and the D O’Meara-trained Rhoscolyn can capitalise on what looks to be a strong pace. The 8yo isn’t getting any younger but ran admirably here LTO in a 7f conditions race (2.5l 5th of 8) against much better opposition, with a huge SP of 100/1. I’m hoping that the cobwebs are fully blown off now.

I’m not entirely convinced that BOTANICAL is as ground dependant as people make out and I can chance him here at 15/2 (4 places). Mister Winston is a fair enough fav given a win here at HQ last month, however he’s failed to build on his two wins prior, and this looks a much deeper race. Bullet Point will do well to overcome T Marquand’s 9% SR (A/E 0.37) on fancied runners over 9f, meanwhile Fifth Column looks completely found out by the handicapper and Erzindjan carries a poor FlatStats rating. Botanical gave a solid display from the front in the Lincoln, perhaps just lacking a touch of fitness when fading back in the final furlong into 4th. I’d expect him to strip fitter today, he won on his only start over this trip coming at Hamilton and the son of Lope De Vega looks to be on the side of the draw where all of the pace is.

I think Marhaba Ghaiyyath can be opposed here given the C Johnston yard form (2/27, A/E 0.52 so far this season). Insanity carries a top + blue FlatStats rating but Nathaniel’s 4/31 record (A/E 0.48) with fancied 6yo’s puts his son up against it, meanwhile S Woods’ 4% SR (A/E 0.33) in 4yo+ races makes Savvy Victory hard to side with. Have Secret is more difficult to rule out but an each way play makes more appeal to me here and FLYING FRONTIER looks interesting at 10/1. There’s none better than J Tate at readying a horse for its first run of the year in Spring (37% SR, A/E 1.91) so I’m fully expecting his charge to be competitive, especially if able to return to the form of his penultimate win at Sandown off the same mark. The son of Farhh appreciates this ground winning twice and placing twice also from four goes, has 3 wins and a place from 6 starts over 10f and the trainer brings a superb 37% SR (A/E 1.68) with Farhh progeny.

Back In Black can certainly be opposed here given J Fanshawe’s 11% SR (A/E 0.38) with handicap favourites over a mile and D Muscutt’s 10% SR (A/E 0.49) on fancied runners in C1-3 races. Shout will likely come on from his run in the Lincoln, however Advertise’s 5% SR (A/E 0.48) at southern courses tempers enthusiasm, meanwhile the J Owen yard have had a torrid start to the season with just 1 winner from 35 (A/E 0.24) so Rogue Diplomat looks short enough. J Leavy is a poor jockey booking for Stem with his 3% SR (A/E 0.26) in mile handicaps, but URBAN LION can pounce here and back up a win in the Lincoln. The son of Zoustar is up 4lb for that effort but was narrowly touched off in this race last year and probably hasn’t finished improving. A top + blue FlatStats rating to boot alongside J Channon’s 38% SR (A/E 1.57) with fancied mile handicappers, his charge is sure to run well again at 10/1 (6 places).

The Godolphin jolly looks solid at head of the market for the Craven. It's no secret as to how badly A O'Brien performers over in Britain in April (1/26, A/E 0.13 when fancied) so Hawk Mountain will likely need the run, meanwhile Oxagon didn't look to see 7f out at Newmarket when tried twice so I wouldn't be confidence of him getting a mile today. The C Appleby yard have won three of the last seven renewals of this race and you've got to fancy the chances of HIDDEN FORCE at 13/8; the colt by Frankel won on his only 2yo start at Kempton in December and backed that up with another cosy success at the same venue in February, albeit over a mile this time. He's got the fitness edge over the majority and you've got to see further improvement on the horizon.

I'm going to have a couple in the Abernant, starting with BECKFORD'S FOLLY at 6/1. Time For Sandles has to overcome Ballyhane Stud's 2/21 record (A/E 0.3) with favourites on good ground, meanwhile Oasis Dream's 10% SR (A/E 0.37) with fancied runners in Group races makes Quinault short enough. You could take an each way price in here, and I will be doing so also, but BF looks the most likely winner in my eyes and I'm happy to take 6/1. The gelding by Lope De Vega carries a top + blue FlatStats rating and is getting at least 5lb from the field (excluding outsider Aspect Island). He won thrice as a 2yo, all of which coming here at HQ with 2 over this trip and one in the 5f Cornwallis so we know that he handles the course. W Buick's 43% SR (A/E 1.52) with fancied runners when the trainer has 7 runners at that meeting adds further confidence.

My each way play here comes in the form of ELMONJED at 16/1 with 4 places. The son of Blue Point has been a decent handicapper for most of his career, winning 3 times and placing on a further 3, but was put into listed company on his last couple of starts. First he gave a bold display over C&D to finish 2.5l 2nd of 9 in the Hopeful Stakes and built on that with a head success in the Garrowby Stakes at York. The gelding has ran well on reppearance on both occasions, looks worthy of a shot at Group 3 level and Shadwell's 44% SR (A/E 1.62) with BP progeny boosts claims further.

I think that the boys in blue are going to have a day today, starting with CROWN KNOTT in the Wood Ditton. Portcullis is weighed down by a deluge of negative stats for owner and trainer, but the most notable is the Gosden's 2/25 record (A/E 0.34) with fancied runners owned by The King and Queen, meanwhile Santushti will do well to ovecome Lady Bamford's 0/19 record with debutants at HQ. Diomed Bloodstock aren't known for producing early season runners (2% SR, A/E 0.24 in Spring) so North Beach doesn't look a backable prospect and it's hard to make a case for the remainder. No one knows what sort of level any of these are but CK is by Lope De Vega who brings a phenomenal 52% SR (A/E 1.32) with debuants who go off fav and when you did in deeper is 4/5 (A/E 2.1) over a mile. He just seems the logical choice and 9/4 seems fair.

I understand why High Storm is head of the market here but considering Nathaniel progeny perform to nearly half of market expectations when favourite here at HQ (21% SR, A/E 0.55) then I think his son can be opposed. Next up EVANESCO makes the most appeal to me; colt by Too Darn Hot won once as a 2yo and finished a neck 2nd behind well thought of Isaac Newton in a maiden at Goodwood. He was in no way disgraced when last seen at Longchamp in a valuable stakes race, finishing 6.75l 7th of 16 and is rated just 4lb higher for that run. This comes as the 3yo’s handicap debut and he’s up to 10f today, which is pretty much the farthest that TDH offspring can reach. D Egan’s 42% SR (A/E 1.6) on fancied runners from Middleham-based yards adds further confidence. 10/3 taken.

Damysus will have to run out his skin here to overcome Wathnan’s 1/14 record (A/E 0.18) with favourites in Group races. Boiling Point will likely come forward from his 1.5l defeat in the Winter Derby in February, however his owner/breeder’s 13% SR (A/E 0.5) with fancied runners in 4yo+ races makes his price short enough. PERSICA won this last against better opposition on ratings and must surely play a part at 11/2. The son of New Bay has shown himself to be a top-quality horse, winning 7 of his 19 starts, including 2 at Gr3 level and 1 at listed. R Hannon always has his battalion ready come spring and a 18% SR (A/E 1.73) for owners M Hughes + M Kerr-Dineen adds further confidence.

POSEIDON’S WARRIOR could be anything and can make it 2 wins from 3 starts in the Feilden. Wareeth has started his career well with a resounding win at Newcastle last month, however he carries a damning FlatStats rating with A Watson’s 4% SR (A/E 0.41) at HQ tempering enthusiasm further. Isaac Newton will attract plenty of attention due to connections, but A O’Brien does horrifically with runners here in Britain in April (1/24, A/E 0.14 when fancied) and R Moore’s 8% SR (A/E 0.31) on fancied runners over C&D makes matters worse. T Marquand struggles over this trip (5% SR, A/E 0.28) so Morshdi looks up against it and it’s hard to make a case for the remainder. PW debuted at Haydock in September, finishing a respectable runner up to the well thought of Lost Boys, and really came forward NTO when upped to 9f at Goodwood (5l win). The son of Sea The Stars will surely have strengthened up over the winter and a couple of positive favourite stats boost claims further; most notably Godolphin’s 71% SR (A/E 1.45) in 9f stakes races and W Buick’s 56% SR (A/E 1.48) over this trip. 5/2 taken.

It’s great to have HQ back on Tuesday and I'm fancying REAL GAIN at 6/1 in the curtain closer. Great Chieftain is a fair enough market leader, however Gleneagles brings a poor 16% SR (A/E 0.44) with favourites returning off 57+ days away and 4/23 record (A/E 0.53) with favs at Newmarket (0/4 over a mile). A Balding struggles to get his 4yo’s fit after a break (8% SR, A/E 0.53 when 57+ days) so Mister Winston could needs this, meanwhile Esherann and Mythical Guest hold poor FlatStats ratings with negative stats to boot. I can’t make a case for the remainder, but RG has proven something of an anomaly in his 4-year career to date and would surprise no one to get a 4th win on the board. The gelding by Profitable won his first couple of starts on the AW before putting in a solid display on handicap debut at York (1.75l 3rd of 6). He put another hoof forward NTO here at HQ over 9f, comfortably taking a handicap off 91, but since then has placed once in 7 starts. He’s tumbled down the handicap subsequently, but is now just 1lb higher than his last winning mark.

While I think that the jolly is solid I can’t shake the feeling that THE CALTONIAN is too big an each way price at 12/1. The son of Swiss Spirit is stepping back up to 6f after an underwhelming display over 5f here at Newcastle in February; he looked to find the minimum trip far too sharp off this sort of weight (unchanged today) when plonked out the back throughout so I’m hoping that he’ll be able to get competitive with the extra yardage. It’s no secret as to how much the 7yo loves it at Gosforth Park 32% SR (A/E 1.6), particularly this trip (4/11, A/E 2.1) and there’s loads of positive outsider stats for SS to add confidence; most notably 8% SR (A/E 1.99) on triangle-shaped courses, 8% SR (A/E 1.61) with geldings and 7% SR (A/E 1.45) in handicaps.

My only bet of the day comes in the form of SAILOR SONG at 5/4. King Of Thebes is an interesting newcomer for Godolphin, but is their 2nd string and C Planas has a poor record on fancied 3yo’s (8% SR, A/E 0.26), meanwhile Al Azd needs to overcome R Scott’s 4% SR (A/E 0.46) on Saturdays. It’s near enough impossible to make a case for the outsiders so SS could win by default as well as on merit; the son of Zarak is twice raced, firstly at Southwell in February where he finished and underwhelming 9.25l 4th of 6 and then put in a much improved 1.5l 2nd of 9 at Doncaster last month. I’m expecting further improvement here and a number of positive fav stats for the sire boost claims further; most notably a 5/8 record (A/E 1.81) on flat + left handed courses.

Bahadur is current fav on the Exchanges, but S Woods’ 12% SR (A/E 0.47) with fancied runners on Mondays makes his charge hard to side with, meanwhile Serenity Blue carries a poor FlatStats rating alongside J Horton’s awful 1/69 record (A/E 0.18) with runners who finished 7th or worse LTO. Topteam is harder to rule out but he left plenty to be desired on his couple of starts on the AW, albeit at a lesser trip and I can’t make a case for the remaining. MARNIER could just win by default as well as on merit and he can continue where he left off with a comfortable maiden victory at Lingfield in November. That came on his sixth start so has been something of a slow learner, but he had gone close on two occasions prior so holds ability. The handicapper has, somewhat generously, left his mark alone and I really think he can capitalise on that on handicap debut. A top + blue FS rating plus Normandie Stud’s (breeder) 47% SR (A/E 1.72) with fancied runners over long distances and Saxon Warrior’s 43% SR (A/E 1.3) with fancied runners hailing from Newmarket adds further confidence. 4/1 taken.

Gethin can be opposed here given this is his first go on the AW and Ghaiyyath don’t tend to appreciate Kempton (11% SR, A/E 0.6), they tend to need the run (2/19, A/E 0.32 when fancied off 57+ days away) and O Burrows holds a poor 18% SR (A/E 0.47) with Irish-sired favourites. Devils Advocate will do well to overcome W Buick’s 11% SR (A/E 0.47) on fancied runners who finished 7th or worse LTO and general 14% SR (A/E 0.47) when riding for the Gosden’s, meanwhile Thunder Run is another making his AW debut and it’s no given he’ll take to it. PLAGE DU HAVRE has ran on the AW; winning once and finishing 2nd on four other occasions. He was pulled up at Newcastle on his last start in this sphere, with something clearly amiss, but he returned with aplomb at York when finishing 2.5l 3rd in a decent handicap and backed that up with success in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. The Le Havre gelding has so much going for him, including a top + blue FlatStats rating and owner S Suhail’s 45% SR (A/E 1.53) with runners returning off 57+ days away. 9/2 taken.

Another K Burke runner I fancy the chances of today is GENTLE WARRIOR at 11/1 (4 places). Gambino is an unknown entity in this sphere so I couldn’t be taking him at 3/1, meanwhile Wise Eagle is burdened by B Garritty’s 5% SR (A/E 0.49) on fancied runners returning off 57+ days away and 8% SR (A/E 0.41) with fancied runners on Saturdays. Moon Over Miami made the shortlist but Sea The Moon tend to need the run and the R Beckett yard aren’t usually fully firing at this time of year. Dancingwithmyself is another who you can argue a case for but at the prices GW made more appeal; the son of Mohaather was last seen finishing 4l 5th of 7 at Nottingham when going off 10/11 fav but he was badly hampered 3f out and never able to get involved. He put together a couple of wins in September so clearly holds ability and I’d expect him to have strengthened up over the winter. S Osbourne is a positive booking given her 20% SR (A/E 1.42) in April.

I’ve got to be taking on Regal Ulixes here given Ulysses’ 2/12 record (A/E 0.42) with favourites over 10f. Gaucher could prove the fly in the ointment, but he’s got a red FlatStats rating to overcome due to having no runs in the UK and W Mullins’ 0/8 record on the AW over here, meanwhile Duke’s Command will to well to overcome owner J Chua’s 4% SR (A/E 0.38) with runners in 4yo+ races and D O’Meara’s 7% SR (A/E 0.5) in April. Paradias is an old friend but this isn’t his trip and Bragbor has a negative jockey booking in J Spencer with his 10% SR (A/E 0.49) on runners coming up in class. This looks set up for a double-digit runner and ANTRIM makes appeal at 18/1 (4 places); the gelding by Dubawi is returning after a stint in Meydan, winning an 11f handicap before being upped in grade and never landing a blow. Connections then rolled the dice with a go at Group 2 level but he failed to beat a rival home, which I think is having an influence on his price today. The 4yo has won twice over C&D and has clearly improved since then.

My only play at Lingfield today comes in the form of EUPATOR at 22/1 with 4 places on offer. My Fermoy needs to overcome Kodiac’s 0/7 record with favourites over 10f at Lingfield, meanwhile K Ryan is in poor form (0/15 over the past month) so I couldn’t be having Dark Moon Rising at the prices. This looks another one set up for an outsider and EUPATOR looks vastly overpriced; the son of Persian King was upped a couple of classes LTO here and dropped to a probably now inadequate trip of a mile. He only lost out by 3l in a bunched finish and has been subsequently dropped a pound in the handicap so a step back up to 10f looks a sure positive. R Hannon’s 11% SR (A/E 1.89) with outsiders on Fridays adds further confidence of a decent run.

I’m having a couple in this one, starting with market leader SILENT STRIKE at 7/2. This is the son of Mehmas’s handicap debut after decent displays in maiden and novice company; a win sandwiched between two close 2nd's. His most recent outing came here at Newcastle over 6f, going down by 1/2l to the well-backed Soul Love, but beating Cotai Lights who showed plenty of ability on his own handicap debut at Naas behind A O’Briens Causeway. On that evidence an opening mark of 90 looks incredibly lenient and O Murphy’s exemplary 6/6 record (A/E 3.47) on handicap favourites over C&D boosts claims further.