CalFergie

As the market suggests this is a tricky old sprint handicap but I think VENTURE CAPITAL can be chanced at 9/1 with 4 places. Heavenly Heather comes out poor on FlatStats ratings so is unlikely to offer much value, meanwhile Fahrenheit Seven needs to overcome R Cowell’s 14% SR (A/E 0.45) with fancied runners in February. Strong Warrior is even worse FS rated than the jolly plus Mehmas holds a 4/40 record (A/E 0.43) with fancied runners over C&D, and The Caltonian is burdened with P Mulrennan’s 6% SR (A/E 0.28) on fancied runners in C1-3 races. A case can certainly be made for Paddy’s Day but he’s 0/3 when at or above his current mark and Air Force One is more than likely going to need the run off a break. VC hasn’t been seen since a 2.5l 3rd of 11 at Catterick in October and looked a rejuvenated figure after application of cheek pieces. The break doesn’t concern me too much given Washington DC progeny strip fit and the K Ryan yard form (29% SR, A/E 1.75 in 2026), plus the trainer brings a 31% SR (A/E 1.62) with WDC progeny.

You’ve got to be respectful of The Lost King but I think he had things suit nicely when winning over 7f here LTO and Popmaster + James McHenry will make this a truer test over a mile. Bottom weight HIGH ON HOPE makes the most appeal at 9/2; the son of Sergei Prokofiev notched up two wins on the bounce last month, first at Chelmsford then here at Kempton, both over a mile. He’s got the step back up in class plus 4lb rise in the handicap to contend with, but the 4yo won both of those races with something in hand IMO and he holds a great chance of making it a hat-trick. M Appleby holds a 38% SR (A/E 1.47) with fancied runners at Kempton when winning LTO and 25% SR (A/E 1.87) when booking H Davies.

I’ve got to be siding with King’s Code here at 11/2. It’s easy to envisage Paradias going in after winning this race last year, however that was a much weaker renewal and an abysmal display off this mark NTO tempers enthusiasm. Beylerbeyi has B Loughnane’s 10% SR (A/E 0.34) on fancied runners wearing the hood to overcome, meanwhile S Bowen’s 5% SR (A/E 0.49) on runners carrying 8-13 to 9-3 puts The Glen Rovers up against it. T Heard holds a terrible 3% SR (A/E 0.46) on runners coming up in trip (1/32, A/E 0.36 when C1-3) and Assail lacks the class to be winning a race such as this IMO. You could perhaps make a speculative each way case but I’ve got to be sticking with old friend KC; the son of Saxon Warrior won LTO at Newcastle (2.5l) and now runs off his highest ever mark. I don’t think we’ve found his ceiling yet though given his improvement over the past 5 months (4W 1P from 7 from October to January) and a 2/2 record over C&D adds further confidence. Plenty of positive stats boost claims further; most notably P Evans’s 33% SR (A/E 2.1) with SW progeny.

BERKSHIRE WHISPER is the most lightly raced in this field and must be going close off this mark. I backed Pocklington LTO when he finally got his head in front, however I can’t trust him winning again off a 3lb higher mark, meanwhile the J Camacho yard are in something of a rut of late (0/13 over the past month) so Germanic is a risky proposition. Coul Angel will do well to overcome his owner’s 1/45 record (A/E 0.18) and Coulsty’s 6% SR (A/E 0.41) in winter along with M Appleby’s 9% SR (A/E 0.4) with fancied runners over 6f here at Newcastle. Ten Pounds could prove the fly in the ointment but at the prices BW makes much more appeal; the son of Dark Angel strung together a hat-trick of wins last year, two of those coming over C&D. He didn’t look quite up to C1 level on turf but returned with aplomb at Southwell in November, finishing a neck 2nd of 9. He was last seen finishing 2l 4th of 10 at Kempton when taking a keen hold, so the booking of O Murphy is a sure positive, particularly with his 38% SR (A/E 1.89) over C&D.

The booking of an unknown quantity in 7lb claimer A Redman makes this a tentative selection, but on his day TEUMESSIAS FOX is a smart operator and 12/1 with 4 places is too big to resist. Regal Ulixes is short enough given the length of absence (210 days) and Ulysses’s 12% SR (A/E 0.42) with fancied runners over 10f, meanwhile Parlando is up in class and running off his highest mark for some time. Time Loop carries a poor FlatStats rating along with T Marquand’s 2/28 record (A/E 0.35) on fancied mares and Military Academy will do well to overcome J Chapple-Hyam's 11% SR (A/E 0.4) with fancied runners over this trip. This looks set up for a double-digit runner and TF makes the most appeal to me; the 7yo gelding has proven difficult to win with but has notched up 4 wins and 3 places from 12 AW starts. The most recent success came in March last year at Kempton, running off this mark and being hampered badly 2f out. A 1.5l defeat over C&D in November looks decent form with the winner taking listed honours NTO and A Balding’s 39% SR (A/E 1.78) over C&D adds further confidence.

Popmaster can be opposed here given his 0/8 record in C2 races on the AW, most recently finishing 2.75l 3rd of 5 at Southwell just 6 days ago. MOUNT ATHOS makes the most appeal against; the son of Dark Angel is a C&D specialist (5/5) with the last win coming in March off the same mark. He’s been running in listed company in Deauville on the AW recently, giving solid displays on both occasions (2l 2nd of 15 and 3l 3rd of 15 respectively) so must surely give another good account. He carries a top + blue FlatStats rating along with a couple of positive stats to boost claims further; his owner’s 46% SR (A/E 1.39) with fancied Rabbah Bloodstock-bred runners and J Tate’s 29% SR (A/E 1.35) with geldings. 7/2 taken.