c4stle
National Hunt follower who is more profitable on the flat…
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c4stle's Tips History
30 November 2024
15:20 3:20 Newcastle
Some Scope
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@13.00
Lose
-50
I don't think this looks like a deep race, and it's easy to dismiss many of those near the top of the market. My view is that this either goes to a progressive type or an older, well-handicapped horse, and there doesn't look to be much of either in this field. A chance is taken on Some Scope, who was sent off 13/2 2nd favorite on seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham last time in what looks like a much deeper race than this, ultimately never getting involved and being pulled up. Has had wind surgery since and needed his run last term, so I'm happy enough to forgive him that effort. If doing so, he looks like the potentially progressive sort in here that could spring a surprise en route to bigger prizes. Has had just 6 runs over fences and finished 2nd in the Grimthorpe from a mark of 125 last season, as well as picking up two wins from lower marks. Runs from 125 here and will appreciate the good ground. Win bet only due to the poor run last time and wind surgery, but should have a great chance of putting the effort LTO behind him.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Newbury
Remastered
Daily Racing
25 EW
@34.00
Lose
-50
Remastered is now an 11-year-old but has shown signs he retains all of his ability, having won two starts back from a mark of 140. That has seen him rise back to a mark of 145, which is just 1 lb below his highest winning mark. However, his record in this gives confidence that a big run can be expected. He fell in 2021 when he had the race at his mercy, then finished 0.5L 2nd in 2022 from a mark of 142. Pulled up last year but was in poor form through the second half of the previous season and looks to be in much better shape now despite his advanced years. His fall LTO came when still traveling strongly, and he won't mind the quicker conditions at all.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Newbury
Salver
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@9.50
Lose
-50
Missed the boat with Le Patron today, who was into open handicap company having won graded prizes as a novice last term. Salver was contesting top-level juvenile races, picking up two Grade 2s before finishing 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle behind Majborough and Kargese. Had Nurbergring in behind that day off level weights, with that rival winning the competitive Galway Hurdle by 7L from a mark of 139 since. Would mark Salver as a very good horse to win this on reappearance from 143, but the form book suggests he has every chance and the stable looks in good form.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-150
29 November 2024
15:40 3:40 Newbury
Chantry House
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@13.00
Lose
-50
Chancing that the drop in class and return to Newbury - where he won on his only visit - can bear fruit for the 10-year-old Chantry House. Has a really good record fresh and showed enough last season without winning to suggest that a mark of 139 is underestimating him. Cheekpieces employed and the stable are in red-hot form. Whilst it's possible that a return to the Pertemps (finished 5th last year) is the long-term aim, I think early season is the time to catch him if fully tuned up for this as he'll be an 11-year-old come the spring.
15:05 3:05 Newbury
Strong Leader
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@1.91
Win
45
Strong Leader looks a penalty kick here, with his main market rival saving his best for the spring. Has to concede weight to the rest but they're good handicappers and I think Strong Leader is a proper Grade 1 horse from a yard in strong form.
13:20 1:20 Newbury
Ambiente Amigo
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-50
Just the one hurdles start, but she sets a high standard on flat form, having been rated as high as 95 following a few good efforts in Listed company. Looked green on hurdles debut, and the form doesn't look much yet, but she still looks to have a class edge in this field if transferring her flat ability to the smaller obstacles.
Subtotal-55
28 November 2024
13:25 1:25 Taunton
In The Air
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.00
Lose
-50
In The Air has his sights lowered, having been sent off 7/2 favorite for a Class 3 handicap at the Cheltenham October meeting from a mark of 118. Same mark here today but reunited with a 5 lbs claimer with whom he won two starts back. With the stable operating at a 30% strike rate in the last 14 days, he can get his nose back in front down in grade.
Subtotal-50
27 November 2024
13:00 1:00 Wetherby
Skycutter
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.75
Lose
-50
Skycutter returns to the smaller obstacles having made his chase debut LTO, finishing 2nd to Rambo T in a three-runner race. Showed some good form over hurdles last year for new stable, winning from a mark of 115 (3lbs claimer) before finishing 3rd in the Morebattle from 6lbs higher. Down the field at Aintree on his final start and dropped 1lb as a result, but he's down in grade here and although joint top weight, has won both his races at this Class 4 level. Ground won't be an issue having won previously on heavy, and he can come on plenty for this chase start last time, which was his first run for 200+ days.
Subtotal-50
26 November 2024
14:00 2:00 Sedgefield
Clean Getaway
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@3.75
Win
137
Clean Getaway has been in flying form, winning a handicap chase over C&D three starts back before winning a pair of hurdles races at the same track. His chase win came from just 3lbs lower and the 3rd that day has since won a novice handicap (albeit only two runners) from 1lb higher. Same conditions and clearly in good form so could take some stopping at a track he clearly enjoys.
Subtotal137
25 November 2024
21:26 Race 3 Remington Park
Mariahs Candy
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@8.00
Lose
-50
Has been racing over further of late but has some good form at 5f here, including a win and a 2nd this time last year. So the drop back to 6f won't be any harm to her chances. She's weighted to go well and can reclaim the winning thread.
14:00 2:00 Kempton
Shantou Express
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.00
Lose
-50
Shantou Express seemed to come on markedly for his reappearance when finishing a close 2nd to Getalead last time, 12L ahead of the 3rd. He was giving that rival 9lbs that day (with claim) and given that rival has since won again from a mark 6lbs higher he looks well treated here from just 4lbs higher. That still leaves him 8lbs below his last winning mark in June last year and he'll appreciate any good in the going description for a yard in flying form (31% last 14 days).
2 members found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
24 November 2024
23:00 Race 6 Del Mar
No Bad Beats
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
This looks an easy opportunity for No Bad Beats to get her nose in front after running a close 2nd on debut last time. That racecourse experience should stand her in good stead against a largely unraced field and could set a standard the rest aren't able to reach.
14:25 2:25 Punchestown
Spillanes Tower
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@9.00
Lose
-50
Has been overlooked in the market in favour of the Gold Cup types but this trip is short of 2m4f and we've seen the likes of Galopin be beaten at this sharp test first time up before. Spillanes Tower showed he can win at a trip further than this but he did plenty of winning at or below 2m4f last season (including novice Grade 1) and will handle the likely heavy ground better than most too. A proper middle distance contender this season in my mind, with JP having so many options at the longer staying trips, he can cause a small shock in this quality field.
1 member found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Punchestown
Farren Glory
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@2.62
Lose
-50
Showed a high level over hurdles last year, and would have picked up two Grade 1 prizes if not for a bad fall in the Tolworth. Happy to forgive his final start at Leopardstown next time, and the fact he didn't make a racecourse after suggests not all was rosy at that time. Very promising on two chase starts, following home Inthepocket first time before walloping an average field at Naas LTO. Looks to have transferred his hurdles form to the larger obstacles, and on that basis, he's the one to beat here.
Subtotal-150
23 November 2024
15:40 3:40 Haydock
Fontaine Collonges
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 8.50 on 23/11 at 09:220.10 deduction for Le Milos@8.00 withdrawn at 14:55R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 7.50 x (1-0.10) = 7.75Best Odds Guaranteed SP 8.00 used instead of 7.75 BOG
@8.00
Win
210
Off since a below-par performance in the Classic Chase at Warwick, but that came only 18 days after her 14L win at Wetherby on Boxing Day on heavy ground. That came just 17 days after reappearance, and despite unseating that day, possibly things had caught up with her at Warwick. The trainer does really well with handicap chasers this time of year, and although a mark of 140 is 7lbs higher than her Roland Meyrick win, it doesn't look out of reach for a mare who is still relatively lightly raced for a 9yo. Has a handicap chase win over C&D already, that from a mark of 132, and won't mind the falling rain. Looks to be the main pace angle too and could be hard to peg back in sloppy conditions.
2 members found this comment useful
15:05 3:05 Haydock
Royale Pagaille
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@5.00
Win
200
His only defeat in 5 visits to Haydock (4 over C&D) came when 2nd to A Plus Tard in this race in 2021 on ground which looked to be too quick for him. He righted that when running out a comfortable winner of this race last year on soft ground. Despite the bigger field this year, I think there are doubts over plenty of them: Grey Dawning has had an interrupted prep and tends to need his first run; Hewick has the best recent form but won't like the ground; Limerick Lace will love the ground but form isn't yet at this level. The forecast rain and prospect of heavy ground at a track he loves will play to Royale Pagaille's strengths, and he can win this fresh for a 2nd year in a row.
2 members found this comment useful
14:30 2:30 Haydock
Jody Ted
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@26.00
Lose
-50
A really competitive and valuable handicap hurdle (£100k pot) and there are some in here who might yet be contesting Graded races this season, such as Kerryhill. Twig is of interest at a massive price, but the forecast rain and prospect of heavy ground has to be a negative. One that catches the eye at a fair each-way price is Jody Ted for Eoin Griffin, who was last seen sent off as the favorite for the competitive Leopardstown handicap chase last Christmas, won by Meetingofthewaters. Jody Ted lost his jockey early that day, but the money was down from a chase mark of 134, 4 lbs higher than today. Lightly raced over hurdles, but he did win two starts back (mark of 115) and has gone well fresh in the past. This is a big enough pot to focus the mind, and I'm sure connections aren't traveling from Ireland with a prep race in mind given there's £56k to the winner. Twice a winner on heavy ground, the forecast rain shouldn't hold any concerns at a track which so quickly turns testing. Weighted to go well in conditions which should suit.
2 members found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Haydock
Iroko
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.88
Lose
-50
Iroko looks to be a class above this field with the form of his 2nd at the Aintree festival having been franked by Heart Wood (3rd) and Chianti Classico (4th) both winning impressively this season. Happy to forgive his Cheltenham 5th as he was rushed back from injury but even that bare form could be enough here in these conditions. Plenty of form on soft ground so rain shouldn't be an issue and he's gone well fresh in the past.
2 members found this comment useful
Subtotal310
22 November 2024
19:38 Race 6 Aqueduct
Trade Secret
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Trade Secret has won twice here in the past, and formerly a winner at trips ranging from 6-8f. Hasn't reached the same heights recently, but 3rd last time was a step in the right direction. If building on that, she should have enough to take care of this field.
Subtotal-50
17 November 2024
15:30 3:30 Cheltenham
Dysart Enos
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.50
Lose
-50
She's undoubtedly well handicapped from a mark of 131, looking every inch a Graded hurdler likely to take some beating at a higher grade this season. Goes well fresh, will appreciate the quicker ground and won well on her only previous run here over hurdles. I can't see anything else in the field which looks to have 20lbs in hand and she should take all the beating.
14:55 2:55 Cheltenham
Does He Know
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@5.50
Lose
-50
Does He Know won this back in 2022 from a mark 2lbs higher (152) and went really well on reappearance to finish 4th over 25f here. The step up in trip will suit, as will the quicker surface, and without loads of pace on offer he can win this race for the second time for a yard in strong form.
14:20 2:20 Cheltenham
Third Time Lucki
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
Happy to chance Fergal O'Brien having Third Time Lucki ready to roll first time up since joining his yard from Dan Skelton. He's been off for over 500 days but has gone well fresh and will appreciate the quicker ground. Has form figures here of 1-1-4 and is 8 lbs below his peak effort, so weighted to go well. Calico and Matata tie in closely, but I fancy it could set this up for the closing Third Time Lucki.
1 member found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Fontwell
Glimpse Of Gala
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
Just two chase starts prior to this, but I think she will be suited by the significant step up in trip to 3m4f, having shown no end of stamina when winning hurdles races at 24f / 25f. A mark of 123 is 9 lbs below her last winning mark, albeit she had a claimer in the saddle that day. She's won here in the past over shorter, but that came on good ground, so conditions won't be an issue.
1 member found this comment useful
13:45 1:45 Cheltenham
Walking On Air
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@51.00
Void
0
A win-only proposition after pulling up on his first start for a new stable, but he's well handicapped on hurdles form, with a mark of 134 being 4 lbs below his Pertemps Hurdle 5th at this track. He has had just two chase starts, but his first effort saw him finish 2nd to a subsequent Grade 2 winner, giving away 12 lbs. If accepting that was a poor enough Grade 2, that's strong enough form, and if coming on for his reappearance (and jumping better), he's no 50/1 shot and could spring a surprise.
1 member found this comment useful
13:10 1:10 Cheltenham
Maghlaak
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@19.00
Lose
-50
A considerable drift on the hurdles debutant Maghlaak, from 6s out to 18s in a place as I type. That might tell all you need to know, but I'm happy to chance that it's punters latching onto the top two in the market who have both raced over timber but without winning so far. Maghlaak was rated as high as 89 on the flat for Charlie Hills this summer - worth noting the really poor year that stable had - and despite the fact he only won once this summer, there's enough substance to his form to suggest his OR of 86 is more than fair. For comparison, that rating is 8lbs higher than Whimsy. Good ground is no issue and he has to concede hurdles experience, but 18/1 looks to overestimate his potential ability in this field.
Subtotal-250
16 November 2024
14:55 2:55 Cheltenham
Zeeband
Daily Racing
25 EW
@17.00
Lose
-50
Zeeband represents last year's winning connections, and although just a 7-year-old, he's not exactly unexposed after 16 hurdle starts. That being said, form has been taken to a new level recently, winning 4 times this year. Steps up to 3m for the first time but won over 2m7f and was unlucky to run into a Mullins handicap blot last time over 2m6f. 15 lbs above his last winning mark, but good ground and this extended trip give hope he can improve again from his 2nd placed finish LTO from a mark just 7 lbs lower, with the front two pulling well clear.
2 members found this comment useful
14:20 2:20 Cheltenham
Imagine
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-50
Harry Derham has proven he can improve these horses from other yards and have them ready to roll first time, and I'm sure this has been a long time target for Imagine since leaving Gordon Elliot as part of the Caldwell dispersal sale. A Grade 2 novice Chase winner in Ireland, he signed off last season with a poor run behind Spillanes Tower, but still looks like a mark of 145 is a fair way below his ceiling. Finished 5th in the Martin Pipe on his only previous visit to Cheltenham, that coming on the new course. This old course is sharper and he's not short of speed, as evident when beating subsequent Grade 1 winner Inothewayurthinkin by 2.5L in a beginners chase last autumn. His Martin Pipe run came from a mark of 139 and he's 6lbs higher here but will likely be ridden forward (a positive on this good ground) and as a lightly raced 6yo he can defy this 6lbs higher mark on his first start for his new stable.
2 members found this comment useful
12:35 12:35 Cheltenham
East India Dock
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.75
Win
137
A pretty classy animal on the flat, rated as high as 90 for James Fanshawe. Won well on hurdles debut for new stable who have had so much success with their juveniles in the past. Will appreciate the good ground and I suspect will have too much class for this field.
Subtotal37
15 November 2024
13:45 1:45 Cheltenham
Buddy One
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@6.00
Lose
-50
Buddy One was well clear of these rivals on his hurdles form and has gone well here in the past, finishing 3rd in the Martin Pipe from a mark of 131 and then winning a handicap hurdle over 24f here last November from 147 (7lbs claimer). Subsequently finished 4th in the Stayers Hurdle at the festival before 2nd in the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree. Won nicely on his chase debut at Galway before last of three LTO but behind top-class rivals in Heart Wood and Corbetts Cross. Nothing of that ability in here and I think a return to Cheltenham will be a positive, as will the quicker ground. Underestimated as the class act in the field.
1 member found this comment useful
13:10 1:10 Cheltenham
Whatsupwithyou
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
A really consistent sort whose only poor run recently came in this race last year when 9th from a mark of 119. Followed that with a win and two 2nds (including here in April) which has seen him rise back up the weights to a mark of 126 and should strip fitter for his reappearance at Fontwell a few weeks ago when the cheekipiexes were left off (back on today). Ground versatility and although he's never won here he's normally in the mix including at a higher grade than today. His 10lbs claimer is riding with loads of confidence and has 4 winners in the last 2 weeks, including the Badger Bear on Al Dancer last weekend. That puts Whatsupwithyou onto a competitive mark of 116 and in conditions which will suit he can run another big race.
Subtotal-100
09 November 2024
15:30 3:30 Wincanton
Lord Accord
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Lord Accord was 2nd to Frodon in this race in 2022 from a mark of 136. His form took a downturn since, but he's bounced back with convincing wins, first over hurdles and then LTO over C&D, running away by 16L. 5lbs higher here today, but that leaves him only a mark of 128, which is 10lbs below his peak, and having shown his old spark the last twice leaves him very well handicapped. Quick ground is a huge plus, and his forward-going style will suit here, where winners often come from the front rank.
14:55 2:55 Wincanton
Aspire Tower
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.00
Lose
-50
Just the three runners, and I think the market is all wrong. Last year's winner, Rubaud, needs to give 6 lbs to both his rivals, including the De Bromhead-trained Aspire Tower, who won well on his reappearance over hurdles, having been campaigned mainly over fences last term. A one-time Triumph Hurdle favourite, he's a Grade 2 winner previously over the smaller obstacles and has placed efforts in open Grade 1 company, as well as finishing 4th in the 2021 Champion Hurdle. Last season saw him return off a long layoff, and after a summer break and a year's racing behind him, he should be in a better place to show his true running. Won well on good ground last time??"a race he really should have won on ratings??"and he's officially 12 lbs clear of these rivals despite the mixed 2023/24. Doesn't deserve to be the outsider of three travelling across the Irish Sea.
14:40 2:40 Aintree
Latenightpass
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
Two against the field here, and whilst I think Percussion is the solid each-way choice, Latenightpass is more of a win-only prospect from a mark of 147. Led the Grand National until stamina gave way here in April but has an enviable record over C&D, reading 2-1-4 from three visits, and all on quicker ground. He's an 11-year-old now, so I suspect connections will be looking to get him in the winner's enclosure as much as possible. With the yard in good form (40% last 14 days), I think he can get his nose in front on his first start after a wind op.
Percussion
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@8.00
Lose
-50
A boring bet but a solid one. Percussion has shown a real liking for these Aintree fences with form figures of 3 (133) - 3 (130) - 2 (128) - 3 (136), finishing 3rd and then 2nd in the last two renewals. Mixed hunter chases with premier chases through the second half of last season but held his form well without winning and has dropped back to a mark of 129. Goes well fresh, having run in this the last two years, and the good ground is no concern either. Will make the frame and should have enough in hand to win.
13:20 1:20 Doncaster
Room Service
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.33 used instead of 3.50 takenBOG
@4.33
Win
166
Soft Ground gives Room Service a favourites chance here having finished a close 2nd in the Coral Sprint Cup last time from a mark of 105. Never nearer than the finish that day, such a performance from that mark in handicaps should be enough to see him make the leap into Listed company, particularly as he's just a 3yo and potentially still strengthening and improving. Won cosily on his only visit to Doncaster when a juvenile and there looks to be plenty of pace on here to set things up nicely for his closing run.
Subtotal-34
07 November 2024
14:40 2:40 Clonmel
Saint Sam
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.25
Win
112
I suspect Saint Sam will get an easy time in front here with very little pace on offer elsewhere. He has shown his well-being over hurdles the last twice but reverts to the larger obstacles, having won the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase last year, for which he carries a 5 lbs penalty. He's clear on official ratings and, as a 7-year-old, looks to be still strengthening and improving. On quick ground, he can put this field to the sword for the all-conquering Mullins yard.
Subtotal112
02 November 2024
23:45 Race 11 Del Mar
Porta Fortuna
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.25
Lose
-50
I think Notable Speech is a better horse on peak efforts, but Forta Portuna always runs her race and finished 2nd at this meeting last year, so we know she copes well with the American racing. 2nd in the 1000 Guineas but has since won three Group 1s, including open age races the last twice. Her form is tip-top even on her off day, and she is the solid option here.
23:05 Race 10 Del Mar
Federal Judge
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
The dirt track isn't as tight as the turf track, which is on the inside, but an inside draw is still a positive around this two-turn configuration. Federal Judge is likely to go forward from stall 3, which should secure a handy position. This 4-year-old is hugely unexposed after just 5 career starts, 2 of which came over 7 furlongs, but since stepping back in trip, he's taken his form to a new level. Most recently, he bolted up in a Grade 2 when making all to win by 5.5 lengths from Nagatomi. He may be 4 pounds worse off with that rival, but more than capable of confirming the form given his profile. With the stable in strong form, he can gain the biggest win in his short career so far.
1 member found this comment useful
22:25 Race 9 Del Mar
Cinderellas Dream
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
She's been campaigned in the US since finishing mid-division in the 1000 Guineas, winning the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks two starts back. Just a 3-year-old and steps up in trip again, but there's promise in the pedigree with her half-sister Tarnawa winning the BC Turf back in 2020 at 12f - 1f longer than this filly's contest.
Soprano
Daily Racing
25 EW
@17.00
Lose
-50
The tip is an unknown, but her form stacks up pretty well, finishing 3rd in the Group 1 Matron over 8f two starts back behind BC Mile contender Porta Fortuna. Finished 6L 2nd on US soil last time, but suspect that was with a view to this prize. Despite the wide draw, conditions should suit, and she could be delivered late to hit the frame.
21:41 Race 8 Del Mar
Fierceness
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@SP
Lose
-50
With doubts over City Of Troy on the dirt, it should pay to side with an American horse. Fierceness sets the standard this year, with form lines tying in with the Distaff winner.
21:01 Race 7 Del Mar
Rebels Romance
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.50
Win
125
Admittedly, my knowledge of international racing has some blind spots, but to my eye, on collateral form, Rebels Romance looks easily the one to beat. Comfortably beat the Japanese raider Shahryar by 2L when winning the Sheema Classic in March and has picked up another two Group 1s since. Beaten into 3rd in the King George, 3.25L behind the Arc winner Bluestocking, but even that sets the standard here, and he won this prize when at Keeneland in 2022. The British and Japanese challengers have plenty to do to reach his level based on recent form, and at these middle-distance trips, those two powers so often come to the fore.
1 member found this comment useful
19:41 Race 5 Del Mar
Bradsell
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
Bradsell has been the top sprinter in Europe this year, winning a Listed contest at Deauville before claiming the Group 1 Nunthorpe and Flying Five, and latterly just touched off in the Abbaye on ground softer than ideal. That confirmed the ability he showed when winning the King's Stand as a 3-year-old, and he can sign off his racing career with another top-level prize. Cogburn will try to go forward from stall 9, as will Big Evs from 11. So although drawn wide (stall 13), he could get a nice pull into the race and show the speed that's seen him be so successful already this year.
1 member found this comment useful
Starlust
Daily Racing
25 EW
@23.00
Win
660
I really fancied Starlust for the L'Abbaye, but he was wiped out mid-race when put through the rail, so happy to draw a line through that effort. Prior to that, his 3rd in the Nunthorpe puts him up there with the best of the British (finished behind Bradsell and Believing), but stall 4, I think, might be enough for him to turn the tables on those rivals who both look to have unsuitable positions. He finished 3rd behind Big Evs in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint last year, so clearly copes well enough with the American style of racing, and I think he's overpriced for a yard that has had an amazing season already with the prospect of another top-level prize.
15:45 3:45 Ascot
Chianti Classico
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 3.75 on 01/11 at 17:250.15 deduction for Our Power@6.00 withdrawn at 07:41R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.75 x (1-0.15) = 3.34Best Odds Guaranteed SP 3.75 used instead of 3.34 BOG
@3.75
Win
137
I like the Kim Bailey pair here who are at opposite ends of their chasing careers. Chianti Classico has had just 5 chase starts and seems to be on an upward curve, winning the Ultima from a mark of 143 and then following up with a strong 4th placed finish in a strong-looking Grade 1 novice chase at Aintree. The 3rd horse that day won a Listed contest on reappearance and Chianti Classico comes here from a mark of 152 in handicap company. If he's a true Graded performer, that looks a mark below his ceiling. He has a good record fresh and has won on good ground as well as heavy, so conditions will be fine.
1 member found this comment useful
Two For Gold
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
I like both the Kim Bailey runners and Chianti Classico could yet be underestimated from a mark of 152 after just 5 chase starts, however Two For Gold loves it here at Ascot and is just 1lb above his last winning mark. His record here over fences reads 2-2-1-2-2 whilst his record fresh also gives confidence whereas others might need the run. He finished 2nd in this last year from 3lbs higher and should enjoy the better ground on offer.
14:58 2:58 Wetherby
French Dynamite
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
I think French Dynamite has a huge chance here, taking on Bravemansgame (Nicholls' horses badly needing the run and horse on the downgrade) as well as Conflated (normally needs the run and hasn't won since December 2022). French Dynamite will be race fit having run twice in October and his win in a Grade 3 chase at Punchestown last time looks plenty strong, even in receipt of weight, with Minella Indo and Hewick in behind. That came over 2m7f on good ground, so should leave him spot on for this Grade 2 over 3m. Connections won this last year and I think both form and fitness can see him give 4lbs and a beating to these rivals.
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14:05 2:05 Ascot
Master Chewy
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-50
On quick ground I think class comes to the fore and Master Chewy is the clear class horse in this race. Signed off last season with a close 2nd in a Grade 1 novice chase at Aintree, with the winner that day having finished 2nd in the Arkle the time before which gives substance. He won really well on reappearance last year (albeit probably entitled to do so) and the yard have had their horses generally ready to roll so I expect him to be match fit for this en route to grander targets later in the year. A mark of 154 looks 5-6lbs below his level based on the novice form and despite carrying top weight he can pick up a nice pot here.
00:25 Race 5 Del Mar
Al Qudra
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@7.00
Lose
-50
I think William Buick might have picked the wrong one, as Al Qudra was really impressive when beating New Century by 2.25L in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes on quick ground at Ascot over 7f. The form was turned around last time at Woodbine over 8f, but Al Qudra was stopped at a key moment on the run-in. I think he has a strong chance of getting his nose back in front of the Balding runner.
Subtotal422
01 November 2024
23:05 Race 3 Del Mar
Lake Victoria
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.00
Win
50
I can't shake the feeling Anshoda is a massive price at 50s, but it's going to be hard for anybody to beat the AOB-trained Lake Victoria, who is a perfect 4 from 4 this season. This included winning the Group 3 Sweet Solera on quick ground over 7f at Newmarket on just her second start. She has since added two Group 1s in cozy fashion, including the Moyglare over 7f and the Cheveley Park back over 6f. She has shown a potent mix of speed but also plenty of stamina, and the step up to a mile is expected to suit being by Frankel. It will take a good filly to come up to her level, and she can claim another top-level prize.
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21:45 Race 1 Del Mar
Magnum Force
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@13.00
Win
360
The first three from the Flying Childers all turn up here, but I fancy the 3rd placed horse to turn the tables on the other two. Two starts back, Magnum Force was extremely unlucky when meeting trouble in running, finishing 2nd in a Listed race at York on quick ground. Also won his maiden on good to firm, and although that's not strong form, he won cosily and looks a real speedy type on top of the ground. He's overpriced at this stage.
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21:45 Race 6 Del Mar
Shareholder
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-50
Two against the field as I'm not certain the market has this right. I'm happy to forgive Shareholder when blowing out on softer ground over 6f in France last time and think he's better judged on his win in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot two starts back. The drop back to 5f and the fast ground are both positives and he had plenty of these in behind when winning in similar conditions at the Royal meeting.
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Subtotal360
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