c4stle

National Hunt follower who is more profitable on the flat…

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c4stle's Tips History

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14 June 2025
15:35 3:35 York

Fast Track Harry

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@13.00

Win

35

Clive Cox has won this twice in the last three years and he's triply represented this year in a bid to follow up. The pick looks to be Fast Track Harry who is extremely lightly raced having had just three career starts, and put a disappointing second run behind him when winning cosily on his first start after a wind op last time out. That win was under a penalty and a mark of 90 could underestimate him given conditions will suit and the pace looks nearby so he should get a nice pull into the race.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 York

Absurde

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.50

Lose

-50

This race should set up well for Absurde who returns to the scene of his 2023 Ebor win with conditions to suit. Al Qareem has to give him 5lbs and along with the Godolphin horse should set a good pace in this small field which will play to the Mullins' horse's strengths. His run behind Ascot Gold Cup fav Illinois last time reads pretty well, as does his hurdles form in the spring including 3rd in the County Hurdle before winning at Punchestown. He's 2lbs better off with Al Qareem having finished behind him LTO at Chester but this track should make it harder for that rival to dictate matters. He won under Danny Tudhope last August so jockey booking no issue.
2 members found this comment useful
13 June 2025
13:40 1:40 Chester

Profit Refused

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.00 used instead of 2.75 takenBOG

@4.00

Win

150

Patrick Mullins continues his quest for winners at as many tracks possible, taking a ride in this amateur jockeys race at Chester. Profit Refused won well on debut for her new stable and ran well enough when 3rd of 4 up in grade last time. Didn't manage to get her own way in front that day but the set up of this race should suit better, particularly with her draw in stall 1 at this tight turning track. A mark of 82 is the same as LTO, and the 2nd has won since which gives the form some substance.
07 June 2025
16:15 4:15 Epsom Downs

Maxi King

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@23.00

Lose

-50

A mark of 100 looks high enough in a handicap as competitive as this, but Maxi King spent most of 2024 running in pattern races, and the handicaps he did contest wouldn't have given him the best chance of winning due to race conditions. Soft ground is a huge plus for him, and he goes really well fresh, having won off breaks of 136 and 386 days on his last two reappearances. He's 2 lbs lower than when 8th at Doncaster in November, but crucially, I think this could be the time to catch him. With plenty of pace on offer, the setup of the race looks ideal too.
1 member found this comment useful

Miller Spirit

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Not at his best in two starts this season, but will be suited by the softer ground. Prior to his reappearance, he had always shown his best form at Epsom, where he was 2 from 2. Seems to handle undulations well, as he also has strong form at the likes of Goodwood. A mark of 94 is just 4 lbs above his last winning mark and 3 lbs lower than when 6th in a competitive Class 2 handicap at the Doncaster November meeting. Cheekpieces go on for the first time since September 2023, when they saw him win when fitted for the first time. Maxi King could also outrun his odds, having gone really well fresh and dropping into handicap company.
1 member found this comment useful
14:45 2:45 Epsom Downs

Jm Jungle

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.00

Win

210

Jm Jungle is consistent, ground versatile, and seems to handle any track. As a result, he keeps hitting the frame and creeping up in the handicap without winning the races he's deserved. He's now 8 lbs higher than his last winning mark, but I think with Democracy Dilemma in stall 6, he'll get a great tow into the race. He ran well on his only visit here to finish 4th in the 3yo Dash two years ago.
1 member found this comment useful
13:35 1:35 Epsom Downs

Docklands

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.88

Lose

-50

Docklands has the best form on offer, having finished 2nd in the Group 1 Queen Anne last season and just touched off in a number of Listed contests too. Ran well on reappearance to pull well clear with an unexposed horse who since finished 1L 2nd in a French Group 1 behind the Arc favourite, Sosie. Seems to save his best for Ascot, and this might be a prep for a Queen Anne run. But in receipt of weight from his market rival, I think he can claim this prize on his way there.
13:00 1:00 Epsom Downs

Royal Dress

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@5.50

Lose

-50

I was all over Royal Dress at York last time, and she defied an alarming drift to run a really good race in 3rd. Looks the form pick on that basis, and she met loads of trouble in running when a never nearer 3rd in this race last year, and would surely have won with a clear run. Softer ground is no issue, and she handles the undulations well.
06 June 2025
15:15 3:15 Epsom Downs

Defiance

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

Roger Varian has a strong record in this race, having won it 4 times since 2014. He has another good chance this year with Defiance who ran really well behind Bellum Justum in a Derby trial here on reappearance last year, going down 0.75L when conceding first run. Hung badly next time when down the field at Lingfield and then clearly not right at Royal Ascot in the Group 2 KE VII Stakes. Off since but makes his handicap debut from a mark of 99 which on a line through Bellum Justum - now rated 112 after winning a couple of Group races - leaves him really well handicapped at a track he clearly handles well. Ground should be fine and he went well fresh here last year. Looks an obvious blot if ready to go first time.
14:40 2:40 Epsom Downs

Giavellotto

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

Calandagan will be a tough nut to crack, but he has finished 2nd in his last 3 runs. I think Giavellotto doesn't have as much to find as their Meydan run in April would suggest. He'll be suited by the falling rain and has plenty of class, as shown by his win in the Hong Kong Vase (G1) in December. There looks to be a good pace on offer, so it shouldn't get too tactical. He's got 2 wins from 3 runs at this trip, with the messy Meydan race last time being the only blot on his copybook.
13:30 1:30 Epsom Downs

The Waco Kid

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

You can argue The Waco Kid nicked the race when beating Diego Ventura to win the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket last September. He does carry a penalty for that win, but he beat today's favorite by 2.25L that day. 2lbs worse off here, but he's 3lbs clear on ratings, and there doesn't look to be loads of pace on offer. Stall 3 at this tight turning track means he could grab the rail and go in first-time cheekpieces. With cut in the ground, he could be really hard to peg back.
31 May 2025
13:48 1:48 Haydock

Kings Lynn

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@12.00

Lose

-50

Kings Lynn may be an 8yo now but returns to the turf having shown on the AW that he retains his ability, finishing 2nd three starts back from a mark of 90. He's 3lbs lower today which puts him 6lbs lower than his last turf start on soft ground at York in October which came in a better race than this. Looks well drawn with forward goers in stalls 2 & 6 and he's 2 from 2 at Haydock, albeit those came a few years ago but in pattern company. Soft ground suits him and Oisin is back in the saddle for a yard in strong form.
1 member found this comment useful
26 May 2025
16:15 4:15 Leicester

Fondo Blanco

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

Bumped into a handicap blot last time but surely will have been targeted at this King Power Handicap considering connections sponsor the race at Leicester Racecourse. Same owners won the race last year with Sargeant Wilko, and Fondo Blanco is unchanged from his opening mark of 85 here for a stable in red-hot form.
25 May 2025
15:40 3:40 Curragh

Swelter

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@6.00

Lose

-50

Juddmonte won the Irish 2000 Guineas and looks to have a good chance to match the achievements of Godolphin by winning both in a weekend. Swelter has only raced twice but was impressive on both occasions, winning a Group 3 on seasonal return. The 2nd that day - Exactly - finished a close 4th in the French Guineas, and with natural improvement and doubts over the favorite, I'd expect Swelter to hold strong claims of gaining Classic glory at 8f. The yard has a strong record in this, winning it 4 times, including twice in the last few years.
1 member found this comment useful
15:05 3:05 Curragh

White Birch

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

White Birch loves it at The Curragh, racking up a hat trick of wins last year, which included a comfortable success in this race when beating Derby winner Auguste Rodin by 3L. Ran really well on reappearance, going down a neck to Los Angeles when doing his best work at the end but not quite getting to the winner. Should strip fitter for that effort and appreciate the cut in the ground. At this trip, I fancy him to reverse the form with the favourite.
1 member found this comment useful
14:30 2:30 Curragh

Porta Fortuna

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.25 used instead of 2.00 takenBOG

@2.25

Win

62

This looks like a penalty kick for Porta Fortuna, who is miles better than her rivals and can defy a 3 lbs penalty on her seasonal reappearance. Finished a close 2nd in the 1000 Guineas on seasonal debut last year, and although she'll likely come on for the run and have bigger targets ahead, she's a class above here and shouldn't have any problems winning this en route to Royal Ascot.
24 May 2025
15:40 3:40 Curragh

Officer

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@7.50

Lose

-50

No doubt Field Of Gold should have won the Guineas when asked for his effort far too late, and he might copy Rosalion in making amends here. But I do think that Officer looks a really good prospect. With FOG having disappointed on his only visit overseas (soft ground also a potential excuse), I'm siding with the O'Brien colt. Raced just once as a juvenile, winning more cosily than the distance suggests, and was pitched into deep company on his first start this year, finishing 3rd in open company behind a race-fit Big Gossey, who is a solid enough yardstick, and Camille Pisarro, who was a Group 1 winner himself as a juvenile and placed 3rd in the French Guineas last time. That on just Officer's 2nd career start was impressive, and he got back to winning ways over C&D in a maiden last time. Hugely unexposed, and I have backed him already for the St James' Palace, where he's a huge 33/1 to take the Paddington route to Royal Ascot success.
1 member found this comment useful
15:05 3:05 Curragh

Lethal Levi

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 8.50 used instead of 8.00 takenBOG

@8.50

Win

12

I think Storm Boy has to be taken on his Irish debut, and with no doubt, bigger targets in mind. I'm of the view O'Brien horses often need their first run. Lethal Levi is race fit after two runs at Newmarket and won't be making the trip across for nothing. His OR of 109 doesn't leave him with much to find with the market principals, and there doesn't look to be masses of pace on, which might help him get a relatively easy lead in front. His handicap form last year suggests he's a Group animal. He won the Ayr Gold Cup off top weight and a mark of 102, and this might be an easier proposition than giving weight to a load of unexposed rivals in competitive handicaps. UK horses have won the last 3 renewals, and I do think they have an edge over their Irish counterparts over sprinting trips. Lethal Levi is the solid each-way option with a more than fair win chance.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Haydock

Running Lion

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@2.88

Lose

-50

She's temperamental but on her day is top quality, as evidenced by her OR which puts her 7lbs clear of her nearest rival. Blew out on reappearance but her 2nd over this trip in the Group 1 L'Opera at Longchamp is the best piece of form in the race. That came on soft ground (French soft) but she also won a Group 2 at Royal Ascot last year on good to firm so conditions shouldn't be an issue. If on a going day she shouldn't be beaten.
1 member found this comment useful
18 May 2025
17:45 5:45 Newmarket

Sixtygeesbaby

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.25

Lose

-50

Makes his handicap debut having gone really well in novice company the last twice, first winning over C&D when comfortably beating a now-88 rated Jolly Roger by 5L and then last time out winning at Doncaster on quick ground. The 2nd that day was beaten into 2nd on handicap debut yesterday, beaten by what looks to be a real handicap blot, and I think that's a strong enough run to suggest Sixtygeesbaby is well treated from a mark of 86, particularly with a 7lbs claimer in the saddle. Yard have had 2 winners in the last 3 days, with a further two placed yesterday. All looks set for a win on his first handicap start.
17 May 2025
14:35 2:35 Newbury

Rosallion

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.88

Lose

-50

I looked to try and take on Rosallion but realistically I think he's the best horse in the race and should have the race run to suit. Beaten by Notable Speech on seasonal debut in the Guineas last year (NS race fit) he was doing his best work at the finish and made amends in the Irish version afterwards. Won another Group 1 at Royal Ascot when again swooping late before injury curtailed bigger plans. He goes well fresh and with Fallen Angel likely to set a good gallop he should have a strong pace to aim at and can make his class felt.
1 member found this comment useful
13:05 1:05 Newmarket

Dark Tornado

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 17.00 used instead of 10.00 takenBOG

@17.00

Win

480

Very lightly raced 4-year-old who makes his first handicap start from a mark of 90, having won a maiden at the 6th attempt 7 days ago on quick ground. Despite only 2 runs at 2 years old and 2 runs at 3 years old, his form ties in with some smart types, including 1.25 lengths behind the now-118 rated Ghostwriter as a juvenile (in receipt of 6 lbs) and 5.5 lengths behind the now-117 rated Lead Artist (running in the G1 Lockinge) on his first start as a 3-year-old. Pitched into the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, he finished well down the field but wasn't seen again, suggesting not all was well, and connections clearly felt he had ability. Changed stables and gelded, he came on plenty from his reappearance to give weight away last time, and the pick of his form suggests to me that a mark of 90 could yet be lenient. The stable has had 2 winners from their last 3 runners - Dark Tornado being one of those - and he's turned out quickly, so clearly full of zest.
1 member found this comment useful
12:50 12:50 Newbury

Al Aasy

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@5.00

Lose

-50

Death, taxes and Al Aasy winning his second start of the season. His record 2nd time after a break reads 1-1-1-1 showing he improves plenty for fitness, and he was good enough to win a Group 3 LTO. He has to concede 3lbs but at this trip he has a class edge on these rivals. Enjoys Newbury and quick ground too.
2 members found this comment useful
16 May 2025
15:45 3:45 York

Rebels Romance

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.25

Win

62

Continuous has to be respected given his liking for York and proven stamina, having won the St Leger, but recent form is a worry and I'm not sure he'll be able to dictate here even in first time cheekpieces. He gets 5lbs from Rebels Romance but that rival is consistently posting pieces of form which outstrip anything else in this field including his Breeders Cup win and 4th in the Sheema Classic last time. Although unproven at this trip he's a strong stayer at 12f and with the ground quick has every chance of staying the extra 2f and showing his class in this field.
1 member found this comment useful
15:13 3:13 York

Troia

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@21.00

Win

75

Troia looks overpriced for me for a yard in form (24% last 14 days). Won a novice on quick ground on seasonal return without much fuss but was pitched into the Group 3 Oh So Sharp after just one start as a juvenile, which speaks volumes about the talent connections feel she has. She finished close behind Guineas 2nd Flight that day, having found herself towards the rear on ground which might have been softer than ideal (twice a non-runner on soft prior to that). Being by Kingman, the 8f trip should be ideal, and Ed Walker won this in 2021.
1 member found this comment useful
14:42 2:42 York

Thunder Run

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.50

Win

275

If there's a group horse in here, it's undoubtedly Thunder Run, who ran 6 times last year but really came into his own when adopting the positive tactics which saw him win a handicap here at the Ebor meeting, making all from a mark of 96. He ran really well on soft ground at Ascot on Champions Day, finishing 4th on ground that looked softer than ideal from the same mark as today (100). Disappointing on seasonal return when down the field in the Lincoln, but happy to forgive that effort - he was beaten first start last year by a horse now rated 77. A return to quick ground at York should suit, and after just 7 career starts, there's no reason to think he's reached his ceiling. New trip today, but bred to get the extra 2f, he looks a good win prospect.
1 member found this comment useful

Zain Blue

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Lose

-50

Zain Blue has saved his best for York, finishing 2nd behind Battle Cry in his maiden (that rival a Group 3 winner since), then 5th and 1st in two handicaps over C&D, winning from a mark of 83 in first-time cheekpieces. Headgear left off for his reappearance but now goes back on and he's just 2 lbs higher than his win here in September. Up in grade but looks fairly weighted and well drawn (stall 8) with Thunder Run going forward from stall 4. Yard are in decent form having had a few winners in the last couple of weeks.
1 member found this comment useful
14:10 2:10 York

Love Olivia

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.25

Lose

-50

Karl Burke has a strong record in this race, winning two of the last three renewals and finishing a close 2nd last year. He's represented this year by Love Olivia who couldn't have been more impressive on debut, bolting up by 7.5L at Wolverhampton. The form behind is ordinary but she wasn't fully extended and connections are happy to throw her into this Listed contest which speaks volumes.
15 May 2025
15:45 3:45 York

The Lion In Winter

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.10

Lose

-50

Aiden O'Brien has had a stranglehold on the Derby/Oaks trials thus far and releases arguably his best prospect of all here, having been ante-post favorite since the autumn. Won the Acomb here as a juvenile on quick ground and should be suited by the step up in trip in similar conditions.
14:42 2:42 York

Romieu

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.00

Lose

-50

Romieu is thoroughly unexposed after just three career starts, two in France for Andre Fabre and then bolting up on his first start in the UK last time, albeit that was in novice company. Into handicap company here from a mark of 90 and whilst it's hard to be bullish over the form, he's going against plenty of more exposed types - none of which looks massively well handicapped. Stands on the inside mean stall 2 looks ideal to jump out and make all in a similar manner to LTO. He won't mind the quick ground and being related to some smart types could prove to be much better than this opening mark.
14:25 2:25 Salisbury

Media Mogul

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.75

Lose

-50

The penny seems to be dropping with Media Mogul having won his last two in first time cheekpieces. The 2nd and 4th from his win at Wolverhampton last time have both won since and a 3lbs rise doesn't look enough to halt further progress from a mark of 71 with the yard in good form (25% last 14 days).
14:10 2:10 York

Shagraan

Daily Racing

25 EWNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 9.00 used instead of 8.00 takenBOG

@9.00

Win

15

Shagraan has to shoulder top weight here, but he was really progressive as a 3-year-old last season, winning twice and placing (including extra places) a further four times in competitive handicaps. That saw his mark rise to 101, which was the same as his reappearance third when just 0.5L back on seasonal return and just 3lbs higher than when fifth here at the Ebor meeting on his only visit to York. He was the only one of the top six to race off the pace that day, meaning it can be massively upgraded. There's so much pace on offer here that there's the potential for a real burn-up, and his likely hold-up tactics can bear fruit. Now a 4-year-old, I think he can show himself to be a pattern performer at sprinting trips.
1 member found this comment useful
14 May 2025
15:13 3:13 York

Elite Status

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.75

Lose

-50

There's the potential for this to be an absolute burn-up, with the quick ground and the number who like to go forward - notably Night Raider, who has had one way of going since sprinting. I have reservations about Inisherin, who won a Commonwealth Cup while missing a number of the ante-post favorites, including Elite Status, who has looked a proper 6f horse throughout his career, winning a couple of good graded races early last season before being badly drawn in the Group 1 Haydock Sprint. Happy to forgive his Ascot effort at the end of the season on soft ground and suspect this is the time of year to catch him. Despite the trainer seemingly keen to talk up his stablemate Night Raider, I fancy Elite Status can claim this before a crack at the July Cup.
1 member found this comment useful
14:42 2:42 York

Commanche Falls

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

As you'd expect, this looks like a really competitive renewal, and cases can be made for plenty. But Commanche Falls looks well-weighted on previous exploits from a mark of 102. Without a win since winning a Listed race here in September 2023, he ran with credit last season, including 3rd in a C&D handicap at the Ebor meeting (had Two Tribes behind and 5lbs better terms today) and 6th in the Ayr Gold Cup, both from marks of 107. Tailed off on soft ground towards the autumn, and his best form has come with firm in the going description, so he should appreciate conditions today. Pace looks to come from stall 6, meaning stall 4 looks ideal, and although he's an 8yo, 8yos have actually won three of the last four runnings, so age seems just a number.
1 member found this comment useful

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