c4stle
1
Estimated Prizes
this month
£15
Estimated Prize money
this month
c4stle's Tips History
27 July 2024
15:40 3:40 Ascot
Rebels Romance
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.75
Lose
-50
I really like Bluestocking but disappointed she's running here and not in the Nassau next week. The favourite has to be taken on given his patchy profile and Rebels Romance looks the solid choice for the in form Appleby stable (42% last 14 days). Hasn't raced in the UK on turf since July 2022 but including all weather he's 5 from 5 on these shores and has taken his form to new levels overseas since. His win in the Sheema Classic two starts back is the strongest on offer and the quick ground will suit a horse that's been running in the Middle East.
2 members found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 York
Passenger
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@2.88
Lose
-50
Passenger is fragile and hasn't had many chances to show his quality but I think he's the class act in this field. His reappearance win at Chester has been franked, with runner up Israr winning at Royal Ascot since. That was on quick ground so todays conditions are no hindrance and I think he can make class pay.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Ascot
Northern Express
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 23.00 used instead of 21.00 takenBOG
@23.00
Win
660
Northern Express always performs with credit in these top level handicaps at 7f and 8f but hasn't won since this time last year at York. That came from a mark of 99 and his consistency means that he's 3lbs higher here today after placed efforts the last three times. High draw has been a positive here in the past but this is a smaller field than normal and there looks to be very little pace on offer. Stall 1 might offer him the chance to go forwards (normally ridden prominently but not in front) and the first time cheekpieces suggest stable might also fancy having a go off the front where a soft lead is a real possibility.
2 members found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 York
Birkenhead
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-50
Birkenhead won this race two years ago from a mark of 67 under Jonathan England. Last year was a struggle and he bypassed this contest but has regained the winning thread so far this season, with his last four runs (all on turf) reading 3-1-2-1. That's seen him rise back up the weights but only to the same mark of 67 and with the same jockey in the plate everything looks set for a repeat of his 2022 victory.
2 members found this comment useful
Subtotal510
20 July 2024
15:40 3:40 Curragh
Purple Lily
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.50
Lose
-50
I'm not sold on the O'Brien runners and think there's value to be had elsewhere, with the pick being Paddy Twomey's runner Purple Lily. 0.5L 2nd to Oaks winner Ezelyia two starts back over 10f when the jockey lost his irons towards the finish, and ran fine when 5th in the Irish 1000 Guineas dropped back to a mile. Despite being by Calyx the form tells us the step back up in trip should suit and I think she's got a lot of class (jockey picked her over A Lilac Rolla in the Guineas).
15:35 3:35 Newbury
Kuwaitya
Daily Racing
25 EW
@41.00
Lose
-50
Since 2004 only three horses have won this carrying over 9st and only 5 have won from a single figure draw, with none since 2011. It Ain't Two has plenty in his favour dropping down from Listed company but there are others that tick plenty of boxes too including Kuwaitya at a big price for Alice Haynes. 0.75L 3rd in a Listed contest in France two starts back, I'm happy to draw a line through her effort last time when meeting plenty of trouble in running. Race conditions mean she's carrying just 8st 8lbs on her back and the first time cheekpieces might help straighten her up after the trouble last time. Draw looks ideal with the pace high and she can outrun her odds in a race that has seen some big priced winners in the past.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Newbury
Diligent Harry
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@12.00
Lose
-50
Has twice been beaten in this, first by a neck in 2021 and then a head last year. Has arguably taken his form to new levels this season, winning a pair of Listed races on the all weather before finishing 3rd in a Group 1 Meydan sprint in first time cheekpieces, before finishing 0.25L 3rd behind subsequent July Cup winner Mill Stream at York. Happy to draw a line through his Ascot run over 5f last time and the step back to 6f should suit.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Market Rasen
Pisgah Pike
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@13.00
Lose
-50
A winner of this contest two years ago from a mark of 128 when fitted with first time cheekpieces. Had a lot of time off the track but reappearance 4th showed promise (1.75L off the winner) and the cheekpieces go back on from a mark of 124. Conditions should be fine and he's weighted to go well if no bounce factor.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Newbury
Dancing In Paris
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
Ian Williams targets this race and has won it twice the last four years, both times with Reshoun. He's often mob handed but just the one runner today, sneaking in at the foot of the handicap and stepping up in trip. Dancing In Paris won 7 days ago when seeing off the Balding favourite at the business end and steps up to 16f for the first time from a 4lbs higher mark. If the stamina test brings further improvement a mark of 85 should be more than within reach and the likely good ground should be ideal.
Subtotal-250
13 July 2024
16:35 4:35 Newmarket
Vandeek
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.00
Lose
-50
Missed Royal Ascot after returning bad bloods but had been the ante post favourite for the Commonwealth Cup, ultimately won by Inisherin. Unbeaten as a juvenile including the Group 1 Middle Park at Newmarket (other course) and Group 1 Prix Morny in France. Happy to forgive the reappearance and with the stable in strong form he can confirm his place as the best 6f horse in the UK.
1 member found this comment useful
16:00 4:00 Newmarket
Awaal
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
Awaal makes his seasonal reappearance from a mark of 102, 3lbs lower than when finishing a close 3rd in this race last year. 102 is the same mark as when 2nd in the Lincoln last year (first run of the season) and also 3lbs below his 3rd placed finish in the Royal Hunt Cup last year. Stable are in good form and if ready to roll first up he's too well handicapped to be out the frame.
1 member found this comment useful
15:25 3:25 Newmarket
Ancient Truth
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTETip made at odds of 2.62 on 12/07 at 15:090.15 deduction for The Parthenon@5.50 withdrawn at 09:270.15 deduction for Pentle Bay @5.500 withdrawn at 14:150.00 deduction for Paps Turf @67.000 withdrawn at 15:05R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 1.62 x (1-0.3) = 2.13
@2.13
Win
56
Charlie Appleby has sent some good horses here in the past, winning in recent years with both Master Of The Seas and Native Trial. Looks to have another exciting prospect on his hands with Ancient Truth who is 2 from 2, both wins at Newmarket, and could pick up this prize en route to a potential Guineas tilt next year.
15:10 3:10 York
Botanical
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.50
Lose
-50
Botanical ran no race when sent off favourite for the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot, trailing home last of the 15. That came on quick ground and being 'too bad to be true' I'm happy to draw a line through it. Prior to that he bolted up over C&D in handicap company from a mark of 97 and despite now being 10lbs higher I think still has scope to improve again after just 7 career starts, winning 3 of his 5 starts on turf. A mark of 107 doesn't look to be his ceiling, particularly on ground softer than good.
1 member found this comment useful
13:45 1:45 Ascot
Lethal Nymph
Daily Racing
25 EW
@17.00
Lose
-50
A really competitive race and there's many that catch the eye. Rohaan loves it here but generally over 6f and could have bigger targets for the rest of the season. Lethal Nymph has been dropped to 5f this year and run with plenty of credit, with his 2nd behind Starlust reading as good form - that rival is favourite for the Listed sprint at York on the same day. A mark of 84 is 5lbs below his last winning mark albeit that was in September 2022, but with placed efforts on 3 of his last 4 runs he looks primed for a big run at a course he enjoys (2 wins and a 5th in 3 runs here).
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-144
12 July 2024
14:40 2:40 York
Pretty Crystal
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@17.00
Lose
-50
Clearly a talented filly, having won the Nell Gwynn over 7f on reappearance and then failing to see out the 8f in the 1000 Guineas. Drops back in trip to 6f for the first time since her juvenile days but has some solid form including 5th in the Albany and 2nd in an Ascot G3.
Subtotal-50
06 July 2024
15:15 3:15 Haydock
Astro King
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@23.00
Void
0
Astro King is a 7yo now has had just the one try at this trip, finishing 4th in a tactically run Group 2 contest two starts back when never put into the race. Underpar at Royal Ascot last time but his reappearance showed he retains his ability (2nd in a Group 3 behind Ottoman Fleet who has won twice since in the States). Drops back into handicap company and back to a mark of 109 which is just 2lbs above his last winning mark in the Cambridgeshire last autumn. Has finished 2nd on soft ground before and this race has historically been won by those classy types at the top of the handicap. Could show his ability back down in grade for a stable in flying form (31% last 14 days).
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Sandown
Ciceros Gift
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@13.00
Win
600
Off since an eye catcher in the Group 1 St James Palace at Royal Ascot last year, meeting plenty of trouble in running to finish 7th. Not making a racecourse since suggests there might have been other excuses that day, but even on the bare form a mark of 107 could look lenient after just 4 career starts. Race fitness is the only question but I think he's potentially a 115 ish horse and if ready to roll off a break could be so well handicapped he doesn't need to be 100%.
1 member found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Sandown
Live In The Dream
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.00
Lose
-50
Too poor to be true last time when finishing over 10L behind the winner in the Achilles Stakes at Haydock. Has finished 1-2 on two visits to Sandown and his 2nd placed finish in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes on soft ground at Newmarket tells us he should handle conditions despite being a Group 1 winner on quick ground. If bouncing back he should have a class edge on this field, being 6lbs clear on official ratings.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal550
30 June 2024
16:05 4:05 Curragh
Ambiente Friendly
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.50
Lose
-50
I think at this trip Ambiente Friendly should uphold the form with Los Angeles who looked tapped for toe when plodding on at the end of the Derby and could be more of a Leger type. Ambienete Friendly was impressive at Lingfield the time before, comfortably beating Queens Vase winner Illinois, and in favourable conditions can make his class tell.
Subtotal-50
29 June 2024
15:40 3:40 Newcastle
Local Hero
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.50
Lose
-50
Hugely unexposed 3yo who won on handicap debut, taking his record to 2 from 3 on the all weather. 6lbs rise takes him to a mark of 91 but was chucked into Listed company on just his second start so connections clearly feel he's good horse which would mean he's still got plenty in hand from this mark. Loads of pace on offer so could go well from off the pace for Hollie Doyle.
1 member found this comment useful
15:10 3:10 Newcastle
True Legend
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Win
45
True Legend looks to be progressive, having risen from a mark of 63 to a high of 89 last time. Ran well on reappearance behind Aimeric (in receipt of 14lbs) who went close in Listed level next time behind King Of Conquest and is now rated 108. Steps up in trip to 16f for the first time and his hold up tactics should bode well from a wide draw. A mark of 89 certainly doesn't look to be his ceiling, particularly should the step up in trip bring further improvement.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-5
22 June 2024
18:15 6:15 Royal Ascot
Uxmal
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTETip made at odds of 12.00 on 21/06 at 22:120.00 deduction for Trueshan@11.00 withdrawn at 08:450.00 deduction for Ndaawi @51.000 withdrawn at 09:290.00 deduction for Grand Providence @13.000 withdrawn at 09:350.25 deduction for Queenstown @4.000 withdrawn at 11:190.00 deduction for Tashkhan @11.000 withdrawn at 12:01R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 11.00 x (1-0.25) = 9.25
@9.25
Win
412
Not the strongest of fields and the shortlist is very short. Uxmal is an unexposed type and not raced beyond 16f (won a maiden by 7L that day) but firmly on the upgrade and in these conditions he's right in the mix on official ratings, with the promise of more to come.
17:05 5:05 Royal Ascot
Dark Trooper
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
He's the potential group horse in the handicap and also boasts C&D form which reads 1-1-3, with the 3rd having been sent off fav for a Group 3 here back in October. Bought by Wathnan for big money having bolted up at Saint Cloud but has shown he will appreciate a quicker surface too. High draw has been a positive so far this week but pace does look to be low, however he may just have the class edge to see him to victory from a mark of 102.
1 member found this comment useful
Mums Tipple
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
Well handicapped on his 4th placed finish in this race last year, being 4lbs lower than that effort. With front runners in 2, 5, 6 and 9 stall 11 doesn't look a bad draw and he showed two starts back that he still retains his ability. A mark of 96 has potential having also finished a close 2nd here in the past from a mark of 97 in October 2022.
1 member found this comment useful
16:25 4:25 Royal Ascot
Haatem
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.50 used instead of 4.33 takenBOG
@4.50
Win
175
I think Haatem is the bet of the week, even giving away 3lbs to River Tiber. The form of his Guineas 3rd / Irish Guineas 2nd is unmatched in this field (comfortably clear of River Tiber last time) and the drop back to 7f here shouldn't be an inconvience. We saw Rosallion frank the form earlier this week and I think ultimately class will tell.
1 member found this comment useful
15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot
Believing
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.50
Lose
-50
Finished 4th in the Kings Stand on Tuesday when possibly on the wrong side of the draw and steps up to 6f here. Finished 0.5L 3rd in the Group 1 Sprint Cup last autumn and should be suited by the fast ground. Slightly smaller field means better chance of being in the right place and the stable are in red hot form (34% last 14 days). This doesn't look a vintage renewal and his form stacks up with the rest of the field.
1 member found this comment useful
15:05 3:05 Royal Ascot
Missed The Cut
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Lose
-50
I'm a big fan of Continuous but he has a lot on his plate on seasonal reappearance and most of the O'Brien horses have needed their first run. Missed The Cut won the Golden Gates here when trained by George Boughey and has been in stellar form since his switch to the USA, losing out to Silver Knott (giving away first run) in a Grade 2 last time. Quick ground will suit and he's proven at the track.
1 member found this comment useful
14:30 2:30 Royal Ascot
Pentle Bay
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@9.00
Win
15
Tough to have a strong view but enough O'Brien shorties have been beaten in these 2yo races to suggest it might pay to look elsewhere. George Boughey has his team in red hot form (34% last 14 days) and Pentle Bay was impressive on debut last time, rattling home after a slow start to win going away over 6f. The step up in trip should suit and new connections recently shelled out £400k to purchase him, presumably with this target in mind.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal402
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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
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