c4stle
National Hunt follower who is more profitable on the flat…
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c4stle's Tips History
06 October 2024
16:40 4:40 Longchamp
Beauvatier
Daily Racing
25 EW
@23.00
Win
85
I love Arc day, which is one of the best days of racing of the year, but it does sometimes throw up some big-priced winners - Kelina won this last year at 22/1. I think there's one overpriced in here, which is Beauvatier. Sent off as the favorite for the Lagardere last year (won by Rosalion) and finished a fair 3rd, and has held his form well this year without winning. Finished 3-3-3 in the last three runs, twice at Group 1 and then finishing close behind Spycatcher over 6f in conditions which suit that rival last time. A return to Longchamp, where he's won in the past, is a positive, and I think it would be no surprise to see him in the mix again.
1 member found this comment useful
15:20 3:20 Longchamp
Look De Vega
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.00
Lose
-50
You have to forgive an underpar performance last time, but the trainer was quite vocal going into the Prix Niel that he was being peaked for the Arc and would need the run. Prior to that, he comfortably won the French Derby with the likes of Sosie and Ghostwriter behind him, and I see no reason he can't confirm form with the former when in peak condition. The latter has also franked that run with a strong 3rd in the Group 1 Eclipse.
1 member found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Longchamp
Starlust
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@13.00
Lose
-50
I think Starlust will be really suited by Longchamp, having saved his best form for York and shown well on his international travels previously. Stall 2 looks ideal, particularly with Washington Heights likely to go forward from stall 4. His 1L 3rd behind Bradsell in the Nunthorpe shows he's in top form for a yard that is going at a fair rattle of 26% over the last 14 days.
1 member found this comment useful
12:55 12:55 Longchamp
Bedtime Story
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
She's better than her run last time, and Ryan Moore keeps the faith. Prior to that, she was unbeaten, bolting up at Royal Ascot and then twice beating her stablemate Exactly (albeit only by 0.5L last time). She went too hard in the Moyglare last time and was eased when beaten, but this bigger field should suit and prevent things from becoming too tactical. I think she's overpriced on the basis of a run which was too bad to be true, and the stable has shown they can ready one to bounce back quickly, as with City Of Troy, etc.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-65
05 October 2024
15:35 3:35 Ascot
Popmaster
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@21.00
Lose
-50
I like both the top rated horses in here (Carrytheone should be suited by the amount of pace on offer at a course he's gone well at previously) but preference is definitely for Popmaster. He was 2nd in this race last year under a 6lbs penalty, effectively running from 106. Edged up the weights since and ran well when 7th here over C&D in the Victoria Cup from a mark of 109 (5lbs claimer) and has edged back down since, running here from 104. The fancied horses are drawn low but there looks to be pace high, and Popmaster shouldn't be far away from that himself. Soft ground won't be a problem having won a Listed contest in similar conditions last autumn (prior to his run in this) and he simply looks well handicapped at a course he enjoys.
15:20 3:20 Redcar
Franciscos Piece
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.50
Win
12
Francisco's Piece has been highly tried this year and drops into calmer waters in conditions which should suit. Bombed out in a pair of Group races earlier in the summer but bounced back last time when neck 2nd in a soft ground nursery at Haydock. Earlier in the summer, he won a Listed contest on very soft ground at Chantilly, and with a low draw expected to be on the right side (lots of pace low too), he can hit the frame on soft ground again in Listed company.
1 member found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Ascot
Relief Rally
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@2.62
Lose
-50
I think there would have to be some proper Group horses in here to give weight to the 3yo filly Relief Rally who showed her quality when finishing 2nd in a Group 3 off a break last time. She won't mind conditions and is still hugely unexposed at this 5f trip - in truth I'm surprised she's goes here instead of the Abbaye but I suppose this is an easy opportunity for some black type and after winning the Lowther on good to firm as a juvenile she can still travel in search of some bigger prizes abroad this autumn. Should simply have too much class for this field down at Listed level.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-88
04 October 2024
16:30 4:30 Ascot
Rohaan
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.00
Lose
-50
Happy to forgive his Ayr run and a return to Ascot is clearly a positive, having run so well here in the past. A winner of this race from a mark of 102 last year, he ran well when finishing 3rd over C&D two starts back from 96 when not suited by the lack of pace on offer. Looks to be more forward going types here today and he's been dropped another 2lbs down to a mark of 94, 8lbs below his last winning mark. Soft ground will suit fine and he can add to his already enviable Ascot C&D record.
Subtotal-50
29 September 2024
16:25 4:25 Curragh
Bialystok
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@67.00
Lose
-50
Not an exact science but you have to think Bialystok is well treated based on his hurdles form which saw him finish a close 2nd in the Scottish Champion Hurdle which helped him to achieve a OR of 140. His flat mark is moderate in comparison, being just 90, but he hugely unexposed in that sphere at this trip. A winner three times on the flat in France before joining Willie Mullins, he's had just three starts on the level since as a hurdling career has taken over. His best finish was a never nearer 5th at the Galway Festival two starts back when he had Sixanahalf in behind (8lbs better off with that fancied rival here) and today marks the first attempt beyond 13f. Happy to draw a line through last time given the winner had them all stretched out a long way from home. Stamina by no means assured (hence the price) but he looked to be staying on well at Galway over 12f and I'm happy to take a chance.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
28 September 2024
15:40 3:40 Newmarket
Dutch Decoy
Daily Racing
25 EW
@67.00
Lose
-50
Dutch Decoy may be a 7yo now but he has a strong record in this race, finishing 7th in 2022 (90) and 6th from a mark of 88 last year. Has two further runs over C&D which have seen him finish 5th in May 2023 (88) and 2nd back in May this year from a mark of 92. Form a bit and out since but a few placed efforts, but most recently last of 6 which has seen him drop down to a mark of 89 leaving him well weighted for a big run. Stall 20 a positive as last 8 have been from the high stalls and pace looks to come from stall 26. Possibly at his best on quicker ground but did finish 3rd in the Goodwood Golden Mile from a mark of 93 last summer so not a complete no hope and with his course record at this specialist 9f trip he's too well weighted to ignore.
1 member found this comment useful
Roi De France
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@10.00
Lose
-50
John Gosden has won this 5 times, including three lightly raced 3yos. He looks to have another prime candidate this year in Roi De France who is unraced on ground softer than good to firm but being by Sea The Stars is taken to cope with the softer conditions today. There isn't loads of pace on offer but Norwalk Havoc will go forward from stall 26 which bodes well for his draw in stall 25, as does the fact that the last 8 winners have all been drawn in stall 21 or higher. Todays mark of 95 leaves him officially 1lb well in and he looks well treated on the basis of his novice win two starts back which has seen subsequent winners from 3rd and 4th, now rated 95 and 90 respectively. Had excuses when beaten into 2nd on handicap debut last time, not finding a clear run and doing his best work at the end. Could be the group horse in a handicap.
1 member found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 Haydock
Blind Beggar
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
Blind Beggar will love the heavy ground having beaten Silkie Wilkie by a head from a mark of 82 at Bath in similar conditions (in receipt of 8lbs). That rival comes in here in good fettle but I fancy Blind Beggar can uphold the form in favourable conditions and from a mark just 2lbs higher. Ran well off a break last time to finish 6th and that should bring him on nicely for this. Never Dark will go forward from stall 6 and Blind Beggar should also be prominent from stall 9 in conditions where it could pay not to find yourself too far back. 5f is his trip and he finished 0.5L on his only visit to Haydock which came over C&D. Just looks overpriced to me.
1 member found this comment useful
14:35 2:35 Curragh
Hotazhell
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.00
Win
100
His 2nd placed finish last time out saw him split the subsequent 1st and 2nd in the Group 1 National Stakes - looks the standout piece of form. Stepping up to 8f looks a plus and his sire won over 8f as a juvenile before winning more Group 1s as a 3yo. Sets the standard and should be hard to beat in this field.
14:25 2:25 Newmarket
Babouche
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-50
She sets a clear standard on the basis of her win in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes last time, with Middle Park favourite Whistlejacket in behind. Unraced on soft but she bolted up in her maiden on yielding and looks to have enough class to cope with conditions.
13:30 1:30 Haydock
Navagio
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@10.00
Lose
-50
Finished 3rd in the Lincoln on soft ground on his first start for the stable back in March, from a mark of 96. He's a full 8lbs lower here after not pulling up any trees since but cheekpieces go back on for the first time for James Horton, having won by 3.5L on his first time in the same headgear for previous stable, also on soft ground in summer last year. Everything looks to be in place for a big run with soft / heavy ground to suit.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-150
27 September 2024
15:00 3:00 Newmarket
Formal
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.25
Lose
-50
Ryan Moore keeps with Ecstatic despite the market thinking he was on the wrong one last time (proved to be correct) and it doesn't give loads of confidence to Bubbling's chances that he's not jocked up on her. They could all be playing for 2nd place though as Formal has been hugely impressive both starts, being a rare debut winner for her trainer (form looks pretty good) and then winning comfortably on soft ground under a penalty last time. The 3rd that day runs at Haydock (14:15) and might make a nice across the card double.
Subtotal-50
26 September 2024
15:55 3:55 Newmarket
Al Nayyir
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 3.25 on 25/09 at 18:100.00 deduction for Drawn To Dream@51.00 withdrawn at 10:070.15 deduction for Night Sparkle @6.000 withdrawn at 13:53R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.25 x (1-0.15) = 2.91
@2.91
Win
95
Really good on stable debut in a Group 2 at York last time when friendless in the market but coming into the contest with really strong form in the Middle East. Showed that had substance when finishing a short head behind Vauban who then finished 2nd in the Group 1 Irish Leger next time. Al Nayyir drops into Lister company here and should have too much class for this field. Won't mind any rain having won on soft ground in France and I see no reason why Night Sparkle should reverse the placings when 4L back at York, especially considering the selection can come on plenty for that effort.
Subtotal95
21 September 2024
16:15 4:15 Chester
Radio Goo Goo
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
A proper speed test and although Radio Goo Goo ran poorly behind Copper Knight over 5f here in June the jockey got trapped wide from stall 10 and she never really stood a chance. Stall 2 much better for this front runner who has now dropped to her last winning mark of 87, having also finished 2nd over 5f at Chepstow on good to soft from 2lbs higher three starts back. Shes won here three times from four visits and all looks set for another big effort with cut in the ground.
15:35 3:35 Ayr
Commanche Falls
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Win
100
Commanche Falls is now a 7yo but has generally been holding his form well at a higher grade, having run just once outside of pattern company this season. Finished 1.25L 3rd on his only handicap start this season from the same mark as today (107) and has run well here in the past, with form figures of 4-1-7-2 over C&D with the last two efforts in this race from marks of 105 and 109 respectively. Pace looks to come from stalls 9 and 20 so his central draw (stall 12) gives him options although worth noting the low numbers had the edge in the Bronze Cup on Friday. Top rated has won this twice in the last 8 runnings and I think his mark of 107 shouldn't see him out of the frame despite conceding weight all round.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Ayr
Town And Country
Daily Racing
25 EW
@9.50
Lose
-50
Henry De Bromhead is establishing a good dual purpose stable and could have another decent flat horse in the form of Town And Country. Won a barrier trial over 6f before finishing 7th in a red hot maiden which has seen 5 of the 6 horses in front of her winning since including 2nd Magnum Force who has been Group placed. Won a 5f maiden last time when looking in need of the step back up in trip and her trainer brings her across the Irish Sea for this fillies Group prize having hit the target on previous trips this year.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Ayr
Two Tribes
Daily Racing
25 EWNBNOTETip made at odds of 13.00 on 20/09 at 20:020.10 deduction for Brooklyn Nine Nine@7.50 withdrawn at 12:11R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 12.00 x (1-0.10) = 11.80
@11.80
Win
29
I fancy Commanche Falls for the main event but the horse that finished a short head behind him at York (albeit in receipt of 17lbs) runs in the Silver Cup - Two Tribes. Except for a couple of blowouts at Ascot his form reads really well, such as his reappearance 2nd behind James Gate (now a Group horse) and then three placed efforts (4-5-4) in big field competitive handicaps during the summer. Sent off fav at Ascot last time when last of 7 but a mark of 90 looks far from his ceiling and with Paws For Though going forward from stall 1 his low draw in 3 looks perfect, particularly with the result of the Bronze Cup favouring the low numbers on Friday.
1 member found this comment useful
13:30 1:30 Newbury
Relief Rally
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.00
Lose
-50
Her most decisive performance came over C&D when bolting up in the Super Sprint on good to soft. She's a Group 2 winner as a juvenile and hasn't shown her best stepped up in trip but signs of retaining her ability when 2nd to Elite Status last time back down to 6f. He's a G3 winner since and she also had Adaay In Devon 1.5L behind that day - the drop back to 5f looks a positive for this speedball and with so much pace in the race the set up looks perfect for the Haggas filly.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-21
20 September 2024
16:15 4:15 Ayr
Roundhay Park
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@17.00
Lose
-50
Roundhay Park is a 9yo now but has held him form well including 3 placed efforts in big field handicaps this season (and a 6th of 21). A mark of 76 is 3lbs below his last winning mark which came under this regular jockey, and he's a former winner of this race on his only start at Ayr back in 2020. Stall 12 gives him options but the pace looks low which isn't an issue, neither should be the ground with form on good to soft / good to firm surface.
Subtotal-50
19 September 2024
17:35 5:35 Yarmouth
King Of War
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.00
Lose
-50
Finished 2nd twice at the start of the season, latterly 0.5L behind a horse now rated 6lbs higher. King Of War has been disappointing since but 3rd last time looked a step back in the right direction yet he's been dropped 1lb so finds himself 6lbs lower than that Chepstow 2nd in June. Cheekpieces on for the first time and with the stable record of 5-28 in them for the first time it gives confidence that all is in place for a big run today.
Subtotal-50
15 September 2024
15:35 3:35 Curragh
Bucanero Fuerte
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
Drops back to 5f for the first time but I suspect should be better than his reappearance effort in the Sprint Cup (finished 6th) and is technically a C&D winner having won his maiden here on debut. A big field here and he's drawn widest of all in stall 18 but given the likely front running tactics he can grab the stand side rail to good effect. Simply put I think he's a proper Group 1 animal and having run well here in the past (beat Porta Fortuna by 4L over 6f as a juvenile) he can come on from his reappearance and any improvement should see him in the frame.
14:40 2:40 Doncaster
Spanish Blaze
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
Blew the start last time and never in the race when sent off fav at Sandown against his elders and should be suited by racing back against his own age. Prior to that finished a good 5th at Newbury, just 1.5L behind the winner Lethal Levi. Quicker ground fine and he's clearly expected to be better than his handicap mark of 86 given market support the past few times. Stable are 4 from 15 last two weeks so in serious form and he looks overpriced after blowing out last time.
14:25 2:25 Curragh
Caught U Looking
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
Caught U Looking wasn't far behind Purple Lily in the Irish Oaks when the pair looked non stayers and dropped back in trip to finish 3rd in the Royal Whip last time. The winner that day is a Group 1 horse whilst the 2nd comfortably won a Group 3 here yesterday, with form lines tying in closely with the St Leger winner. I think 10f is her trip and the cheekpieces go on which could straighten her up under Oisin Murphy. She has some very strong back form over a trip too far and back against the fillies I think she can outrun her odds.
Purple Lily
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.75
Lose
-50
A horse I really like who should appreciate the drop in trip back to 10f and the drop in grade down to Group 2. Did really well to finish 3rd in the Irish Oaks despite not seeing out the trip and prior to that finished 0.5L 2nd to the Oaks winner, before finishing 5th in the Irish Guineas. She has a huge class edge in this field and despite the quick ground (unraced better than good) I think she's the standout here, with Caught U Looking being next best.
14:05 2:05 Doncaster
Brave Nation
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@8.00
Lose
-50
Course record reads 1-2-1-1 and although he's 6lbs higher than the last winning mark at Doncaster that's because he followed up that win by finishing a neck 3rd on the AW last time. Stall 9 looks good with Tees Spirit going to blaze forward from stall 10 and good ground is ideal. Stable form the only question but the price compensates.
13:50 1:50 Curragh
The Highway Rat
Daily Racing
25 EW
@34.00
Lose
-50
Finished 5th in this last year under a 7lbs penalty, effectively running from a mark of 103. Has since extended his Curragh record to 16 (Group 1) - 2 - 5 - 3 which is a good record in competitive handicaps, especially considering he's "dropped" to a mark of 99 after three runs this year in Listed company without winning (figures of 3-4-6). Softer ground might be ideal but given his campaign I suspect this drop back into handicap company here has been the plan and with Apricot Ice likely to go forward from stall 10 his low ish draw (stall 6) should be fine - there isn't much pace on offer all told but he shouldn't be found too far back.
Subtotal-300
14 September 2024
17:25 5:25 Doncaster
Johan
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 17.00 on 13/09 at 21:420.10 deduction for Mirsky@9.00 withdrawn at 09:31R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 16.00 x (1-0.10) = 15.40Best Odds Guaranteed SP 19.00 used instead of 15.40 BOG
@19.00
Win
900
A chance is taken on Johan who won the Lincoln here over C&D from a mark of 102 in March 2022 before finishing 8th in this race from 106 in September that year. Has been hard to keep fit since but won the Summer Mile at Goodwood from 103 on soft ground and has made it to the racecourse just twice since. Beat just one home in the Lincoln this year off a break, and has been off since but the two wins mentioned came off layoffs of 161 and 293 days respectively. He's an all or nothing proposition but conditions should suit and a mark of 105 doesn't look beyond reach even as a 7yo.
16:35 4:35 Leopardstown
Comfort Zone
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Lose
-50
Two runs at Leopardstown have seen him finish 2nd from a mark of 85 (oh 1) and then 2nd in this race last year from 86. Running over hurdles since and with credit, including 3rd in a Listed hurdle at Galway last time. Cheekpieces on for the first time saw him post his best effort of the season and if transferring that back to the flat he looks well treated from a mark of 88 at a track he's gone well at in the past.
15:40 3:40 Doncaster
Grosvenor Square
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@6.00
Lose
-50
Looks a bit of a muddling race, complicated by the fact almost half the field come from Coolmore, but the stand out piece of form has to be when Gorsvenor Square split Tower Of London and subsequent Group 2 winner Vauban in open company. It's possible this will become tactical but if each of the O'Brien runners is allowed to run on their merits I think the outsider of the three holds the strongest claims and having won a Group 3 as a juvenile on heavy ground he shouldn't have any issues with the softer conditions.
1 member found this comment useful
15:25 3:25 Leopardstown
Luxembourg
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
2022 winner Luxembourg was just pipped by a top form Auguste Rodin in this race last year and although I've heard some commentators call this a deep race I don't think it's got anywhere near the same quality. The fav has something to prove, particularly against the O'Brien battalion, whilst Auguste doesn't seem the same horse this year. I think Luxembourg could be the best of the Aidan group in these conditions and at this trip, and clearly retains ability as a 5yo having won the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom over 1m4f this summer. Don't imagine that he'll be pestered for the lead and in first time cheekpieces could be hard to peg back.
14:50 2:50 Leopardstown
Porta Fortuna
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@2.38
Win
69
Porta Fortuna is a class above all of these except maybe for Irish 1000 Guineas winner Fallen Angel but that rival makes her reappearance after over 100 days off the track following an injury. Suspect she might need this en route to bigger targets in the autumn whereas Porta Fortuna is in top form having just been touched off in the 1000 Guineas before confirming her quality in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes and the G1 Falmouth (won by 3.75L). Seen to best on quicker ground but good to yielding shouldn't be enough to blunt her superiority.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Chester
Zoffee
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 13.00 used instead of 9.00 takenBOG
@13.00
Win
35
Zoffee boasts an enviable Chester record, with two runs here (both over 18.5f) seeing him finish 2nd in the 2023 Chester cup from a mark of 93 before winning last years renewal from a mark of 90. The latter was on quick ground (under todays jockey) but the former was on soft ground in similar conditions to here today. A mark of 92 sees him weighted to well if bouncing back to form at a track he clearly loves.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Doncaster
Vintage Clarets
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Lose
-50
Vintage Clarets was 5th in this race last year from a mark of 92 and returns this year 2lbs lower despite winning twice since. Those came last season and although his form has been ok this year he's only one placed effort to speak of but that was a decent 3rd behind Democeacy Dilemma (future Listed winner) from a mark of 95 at Chester. The two front runners are drawn in stalls 18 and 19 which should make him well positioned in 20 and could give the high side the edge. Race conditions, ground and handicap make all give him a chance of improving on last years finish.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal804
13 September 2024
15:00 3:00 Doncaster
Aesterius
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTETip made at odds of 6.00 on 12/09 at 18:020.10 deduction for Coto De Caza@8.00 withdrawn at 07:45R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 5.00 x (1-0.10) = 5.50
@5.50
Win
225
I was all set to tip up Magnum Force who could well prove to be the best of these in time but he's one of a few which are unproven on slower ground and I think it may instead pay to side with the Archie Watson trained Aesterius who arguably produced his best performance so far when meeting good to soft for the first time. He made all that day when comfortably winning a Group 3 and I thought stuck to the task well when heading by Big Mojo two starts back. Got a bit upset pre race that day and I think if a little more streetwise here he can turn the tables on that rival in conditions which should suit. Few forward going types drawn low but he may get his own way from stall 11 over a C&D that doesn't have a historical bias.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Doncaster
Jonquil
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.20
Lose
-50
Jonquil won on debut despite the race going against him, being denied a clear run but rallying well at the end to win by a short head. Bred to appreciate the ground slightly easier than good and for a stable that doesn't typically have many winners first time out there's reason to expect plenty of improvement. Yard are in good form (3 winners from last 10) and can claim this Listed contest.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal175
12 September 2024
15:00 3:00 Doncaster
Anshoda
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@10.00
Lose
-50
I think Anshoda is being underestimated here, possibly due to her odds when winning the Group 3 Presteige Stakes last time. That was on soft ground but she won her maiden on good to firm (massively green that day) and then came from miles back to finish 2nd on good ground at Listed level two starts back. That Listed winner is highly thought of (off with injury since) and Anshoda seems to be improving with each effort. It wouldn't take much improvement, if any, to see her win this being the only Group winner in the field who should be suited by the step up to 8f given how well she's been finishing off her races.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
08 September 2024
16:00 4:00 York
Azure Blue
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@8.50
Lose
-50
Azure Blue is a former Group 2 winner over C&D when beating Highfield Princess by 0.5L in May last year. Hasn't shown that level of form since but was a Listed winner at Ayr over 5f two starts back and shouldn't mind the good ground here. Stall 1 means she should get a good tow into the race from Quinault in stall 2 and she looks overpriced in this field.
Subtotal-50
07 September 2024
15:35 3:35 Haydock
Bucanero Fuerte
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@12.00
Lose
-50
I was all over Bucanero Fuerte for the Commonwealth Cup after his juvenile form (beat Porta Fortuna 4L in a Group 1) and his reappearance win over subsequent Group 3 winner Givemthebeatboys when looking to come on for the run. Missed most of the summer after skipping Ascot with travel sickness and has been targeted at this from some way out. Likely to go forward from low draw (stall 3) and although most of the pace looks high he could steal a march on the field and show himself to be a proper Group 1 sprinter in conditions which will suit.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Haydock
Shagraan
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@5.00
Win
200
I tipped Designer on reappearance last time and will probably have a saver as he looks well handicapped on best form. That being said, Shagraan is in flying form having won at Goodwood two starts back and the set up of the race should suit with loads of pace in the low stalls nearby. Goodwood win same from 93 and he followed up by finishing 5th at York last time when unsuited by being too far back. That came from the same mark as today (98) and I think can be upgraded. Drying ground will suit and he finished 5th in the big field Palace of Holyroodhouse at the Royal meeting so clearly happy enough here.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Haydock
Oneforthegutter
Daily Racing
25 EW
@9.00
Lose
-50
Epic Poet was all the rage when finishing 4th in the Ebor last time and looks to be well supported again here but he finished behind the Ian Williams trained Oneforthegutter that day. The Ebor has so often held the key to this contest, with Post Impressionist winning last time amd Euchen Glen in 2020 also coming via that York contest, and Ian Williams has won this twice in the last 6 renewals. Ryan Moore takes the ride for an in form yard (21% last 14 days) and a mark of 91 looks within reach as he's posted plenty of good efforts at this trip this season from marks of 89 & 90.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 2:00 Kempton
Miss El Fundi
Daily Racing
25 EW
@41.00
Lose
-50
A big chance is taken on the Mark Prescott trained Miss El Fundi who finished 5th in the 7f Chesham at Royal Ascot in behind some smart types, before her most impressive performance when winning a Novice over C&D by 3.25L. Seemed to blow up last time at Newbury and the cheekpieces go on for the first time (stable have a 26 from 117 record in first time pieces) - if having any impact she can outrun her odds at a track she's won well at previously, albeit this is hugely up in grade into Group 3 company. Yard won this in 2010.
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13:50 1:50 Haydock
Master Builder
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.00 used instead of 3.50 takenBOG
@4.00
Win
150
This race is typically less of a lottery with many of the 3yos having shown their cards at York last time. Master Builder brings the strongest form into this having finished 3rd last time in the Melrose - a traditionally strong 3yo handicap. 3lbs higher here but a mark of 88 wouldn't look to be his ceiling and on just his 2nd try at this extended trip he can still prove to be well handicapped for the in-form Menuisier stable (23% last 14 days).
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Subtotal200
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