c4stle
National Hunt follower who is more profitable on the flat…
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Estimated Prizes
this month
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c4stle's Tips History
30 December 2025
20:00 8:00 Wolverhampton
Love Your Work
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@12.00
Lose
-50
Love Your Work can follow up his C&D win last time, having been well drawn in stall 2, which should suit his prominent running style. A 4 lb penalty means he's effectively running from a mark of 72, but he's won from that high previously and looks to have everything in his favour.
17:30 5:30 Wolverhampton
Coachello
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
A winner of this race following a similar break last year, a win that came from 3 lbs higher. Billy rides for his dad, needing two wins to break the record for most flat wins in a calendar year, and I'm sure, as such, they will have this one ready to go. Pace is low, so stall 5 should be fine for him.
15:05 3:05 Haydock
Jupiter Des Bordes
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.00
Lose
-50
Effectively 13 lbs higher than his win LTO, given he's racing 4 lbs out of the handicap. That form looks good, with the 0.5L runner-up winning a novice by 20L next time out. Has improved for a trip and steps up another 4f here, with the yard having a winner yesterday, so clearly in good form.
Subtotal-150
29 December 2025
14:32 2:32 Leopardstown
Brighterdaysahead
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-50
Produced arguably her best performance when winning this race last year, and I'm happy to side with her given how the Mullins stable are running, even with a run under Lossiemouth's belt.
14:22 2:22 Newbury
Jurancon
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@12.00
Lose
-50
Well supported when ultimately disappointing on his seasonal return at Cheltenham, he was sent off 16/5 favorite but finished down the field. I'm happy to assume that was fitness rather than stamina that saw him beaten, and a return to Newbury is a positive for a horse who won here twice last season. The yard are in decent form, and a mark of 132 looks workable on a return to this track.
14:10 2:10 Doncaster
Spindleberry
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.20 used instead of 2.10 takenBOG
@2.20
Win
60
Sets a clear standard here, being a Grade 1 novice winner at this trip when beating the boys. All her wins have come at right??'handed tracks, and she's untested this way around. Connections are unlikely to be sending her here for a jolly, and she can pick up this prize en route to the rest of her season.
13:50 1:50 Newbury
Kings Threshold
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 5.50 on 28/12 at 09:530.15 deduction for Gericault Roque@5.50 withdrawn at 11:190.10 deduction for Minella Blueway @8.000 withdrawn at 07:210.10 deduction for Brave Kingdom @9.000 withdrawn at 12:39R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 4.50 x (1-0.35) = 3.93
@3.92
Win
146
No horse older than 7 has won this since 2018, and even then it's rare enough. The eye was immediately drawn to River Cross; however, he was comprehensively beaten (5L) by Kings Threshold here last season, and a 3 lb swing doesn't look enough to change that. Gericault Roque is thrown in on his best form, but it's not certain he'll be ready to go after a break, so Kings Threshold is the selection. Three chase starts here have seen him finish 3-1-4, and the win came at just shy of this trip. Good ground will suit him better than most, and he's a strong selection.
1 member found this comment useful
13:15 1:15 Newbury
Jorebel
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-50
Front-runner Jorebel is thriving at the moment and can deny a 10 lb rise, having bolted up by 17 L on his second chase start. Yard in form, and the lack of pace on offer elsewhere means he should be able to dictate matters in this smallish field.
12:12 12:12 Leopardstown
Jalon Doudairies
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.25
Lose
-50
Highly thought of, as evident when sent off favorite for the Champion Bumper in 2024. Long time off the track before reappearing at Cork, and he's entitled to improve for that run. That should make him the one to beat for a yard in form.
Subtotal6
28 December 2025
15:05 3:05 Leopardstown
Son Of Anarchy
Daily Racing
50 WINNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@6.00
Void
0
A rating of 128 leaves him with plenty of scope to win this prize en route to the final in March, and connections have previous. Unexposed as a staying hurdler, having maiden hurdle form which ties in with plenty of smart types, he then made a winning handicap debut last time from a mark of 118, pulling clear by 7.5L. He steps up in trip, having run well over 22f at Galway in the summer, and represents a yard in fine form.
14:30 2:30 Leopardstown
Gerri Colombe
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@21.00
Lose
-50
I'm keen to take on the top two in the market, who may not have today as their cup final. Whilst Fastorslow looks the main danger, I fancy Gerri Colombe to outrun his odds given the stable form. Off for 400+ days, but his record fresh reads 1-1-1-1-3, with the 3rd when seemingly amiss at Down Royal last autumn. Connections have openly suggested he's not a Gold Cup contender, meaning this prize becomes even more attractive. He was 2nd to Galopin in this two years ago, and conditions will suit.
13:55 1:55 Leopardstown
Home By The Lee
Daily Racing
25 EW
@11.00
Lose
-50
A winner of this race in two of the last three years, including when slamming future Stayers' Hurdle winner Bob Olinger by 6L last year. This is a stronger renewal, but his trainer knows how to ready horses and has his string in good form, having had Banbridge just touched off in the King George before Solness won his Grade 1 yesterday.
Subtotal-100
27 December 2025
14:50 2:50 Chepstow
Collectors Item
Daily Racing
25 EW
@11.00
Lose
-50
Finished 2nd in the trial last time, despite the jockey dropping the whip 2f from home. Goes well at Chepstow and, from the same mark, should be in the frame again.
Jubilee Express
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@6.00
Lose
-50
Finished 2nd in this race last year on seasonal return from a mark of 126, and comes in this time around from a mark effectively 4 lbs higher after winning the trial here at the start of December. Will be ridden prominently, which is key to this race, and represents connections who excel with staying chasers. I'll be backing in a forecast with Collectors Item, who finished 2nd to the selection last time, having dropped the whip 2f out, and with a yard in form.
13:40 1:40 Chepstow
Macktoad
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@2.10
Lose
-50
Looks an exciting prospect for a yard that have won this twice, in 2021 and 2023, having dotted up on his stable debut last time.
12:30 12:30 Chepstow
Zambezi Fix
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Lose
-50
Seems to save his best for Chepstow, having not finished outside the top four on 13 completed starts over C&D. Won over fences at this meeting in 2023 from a mark of 120 and finished 2nd here in April over hurdles from 115. Respectable efforts this term, but his mark has dropped and he goes here from 111 and has conditions to suit.
Subtotal-200
26 December 2025
14:30 2:30 Kempton
Il Est Francais
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
Last year's second looks to have been forgotten in the market after a poor run for his new stable when pulled up last time. But this would always have been the target, and he bounced back from a bad effort when just pipped at the business end last term. He seems to excel at Kempton, having won the novice chase two years ago in impressive fashion before almost claiming this prize in 2024. Harry Cobden takes the ride, and I'd expect him to try to make all again. There are questions over the Mullins pair given stable form and a hard race last time out, whilst those stepping out of novice company have class to prove. His course-and-distance record arguably makes him the solid choice with three places on offer and conditions to suit.
13:35 1:35 Wetherby
Knappers Hill
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Entitled to have needed his reappearance after 742 days off the track and was notably weak in the market. Had shown a good level over hurdles, being a multiple Grade 2 winner, and had impressed on his first two chase starts before his break, suggesting he would be at least as good in this discipline. With the run under his belt, a mark of 145 should leave him with at least 5 lbs in hand, if not more.
13:20 1:20 Kempton
Blueking Doroux
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@11.00
Lose
-50
Wendigo may be the best of these, but I think this trip will be on the sharp side for what looks a thorough stayer. Blueking D'Oroux arguably sets the standard on hurdles form, being a multiple Grade 2 winner in open company, including beating Salver and Kitzbühel at Sandown in April. He has shown his best form on right-handed tracks, and although he's not translated his hurdles form to fences yet, he's been learning on the job and his trainer excels with chasers. He may get the chance to dictate from the front in this small field under Harry Cobden and will appreciate the sound surface. Overpriced.
Subtotal-150
22 December 2025
14:20 2:20 Huntingdon
Ambiente Friendly
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.50
Lose
-50
Won despite his jumping last time, rallying strongly at the end to win by 0.5L. Rated as high as 118 on the flat (currently 105), his opening mark of 119 should be comfortably within his reach back at the track he won LTO.
Subtotal-50
20 December 2025
15:35 3:35 Ascot
Alexei
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Has been slapped with a 13 lb rise for his Greatwood Hurdle win, having won his last two starts at this trip comfortably enough. He won last time in the style of a proper graded horse. That should mean he can defy a mark of 147, with similar horses having claimed this prize in recent years.
Joyeuse
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
Nicky Henderson won this with Luccia two years ago and has won it four times since 2007. Having bolted up in the Betfair Hurdle from a lowly mark of 123, Joyeuse was a shorter price in the Grade 1 Mares Hurdle in March (12/1) than she is here, reverting back to hurdles after failing to convince over fences. A mark of 140 looks workable for a mare still unexposed over the smaller obstacles.
15:00 3:00 Ascot
Victtorino
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.50
Lose
-50
Victtorino has won this race the last two years (marks of 142 and 143), and has an Ascot record of 4 wins from 5 starts over C&D. Respectable return at Newbury, which he should build on now the yard are fully firing, and a mark of 146 is the same as when winning here in February. Hard to see him out of the frame.
14:05 2:05 Haydock
Famous Bridge
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@10.00
Lose
-50
His only poor run on six visits to Haydock, including two over C&D, came last time when he finished down the field from a mark of 138. He looked to weaken in the finish and should strip fitter for that run, with the yard in strong form (33% in the last 14 days). He has been dropped 3 lb, which sees him go in at the same mark as when winning this two years ago and 2 lb below when third last year. Falling rain will suit him more than most, and he looks overpriced if he bounces back.
12:40 12:40 Ascot
Firefox
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.00
Lose
-50
Although he's not top on ratings, Firefox has a clear class edge to my eye, having been running with credit at the top table last season as a novice, and then returning with a cosy Grade 2 win last time. The yard is in good form, and he should be able to dominate this small field, particularly with Iroko surely having his sights set elsewhere.
Subtotal-250
13 December 2025
15:35 3:35 Cheltenham
Pretending
Daily Racing
25 EW
@17.00
Lose
-50
There's some unexposed types in here, but to my eye the solid option is Pretending, who was sent off 2nd favorite when only 8th in this race last year (122). Otherwise, her form figures at Cheltenham read 2-1-3. A mark of 119 looks fair, and she will strip fitter for her reappearance. Cheekpieces go back on, having worn them when 3rd at the April meeting from 2 lbs lower, and conditions will suit her well.
15:00 3:00 Cheltenham
Conman John
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.75
Lose
-50
Really dominant last time over C&D, and he has to concede weight to his rivals. I fancy he has the class to do so, having asserted well to win going away. Conditions will suit, and we know the track does. He might be able to dictate with a lack of pace on offer.
14:25 2:25 Cheltenham
Triple Trade
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.50
Lose
-50
Bounced back to form last time when getting up to win here, having failed to get his nose in front last term. The season prior he won twice in quick succession, along with a series of placed efforts, and was rated as high as 138 (winner from 135), which leaves him still well handicapped in building on his victory over C&D last time. A 5 lb rise looks fair. Jockey jumps ship, but I think JPR One will struggle to give Triple Trade 25 lb.
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14:05 2:05 Doncaster
Docpickedme
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Win
225
Something of a Doncaster specialist, with form figures of 1-2-1 from three runs over C&D. Just touched off by a neck in this race last year from a mark of 127. He duly obliged next time when beating The Changing Man from a mark 2 lbs higher, with that rival now rated 6 lbs higher. Has had a couple of spins this season to get him fit, and with conditions to suit he's weighted to go well on his return to Donny (129).
1 member found this comment useful
13:15 1:15 Cheltenham
Greyval
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@11.00
Lose
-50
Fergal has his novice chasers in fine form, as shown by Sixmilebridge bolting up yesterday. Although not in novice company, I fancy Greyval should be able to take this in her stride on her second chase start. She won two competitive races last spring and has picked up well again, finishing fifth in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow over hurdles before finishing second to Pic Roc when conceding loads of experience over fences LTO. Both runs have been franked, with the hurdles spin seeing NTO winners in second and fourth, and Pic Roc running a cracking race to finish fifth in the Coral Gold Cup from a mark of 135. A mark of 123 sees her give weight to plenty, but she is still massively unexposed. The trip and ground look ideal.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal25
12 December 2025
15:35 3:35 Cheltenham
Stolen Silver
Daily Racing
25 EW
@51.00
Lose
-50
Plenty of question marks, but he's too big a price to ignore. Changed hands for £6k in the summer and carries top weight here, but a mark of 137 is 20 lbs below his peak two years ago. He developed into a smart staying chaser after being a Graded winner over hurdles, but has only had one go at staying trips over the smaller obstacles. He goes really well fresh, and his new yard have been in among the winners despite having very few runners. Not sure what to make of the hood going on, but he wore it with Twiston-Davies to good effect and it suggests at least that they want to see his peak effort today, rather than him being a bit of a jolly ahead of the rest of the season.
1 member found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Cheltenham
LHomme Presse
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.50
Lose
-50
The Venetia train is starting to get motoring, albeit later than normal, and in L'Homme Presse she has a proper graded horse dropping into a handicap from a mark of 162. He makes his seasonal return after 300 days off the track, but his record off a break of greater than 200 days reads 1-1-1-1-3, with the 3rd coming in the Grade 1 King George last year. He's 3 from 4 at Cheltenham, including claiming the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase back in January, and can give the weight away given his huge class edge.
1 member found this comment useful
12:40 12:40 Cheltenham
Califet En Vol
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-50
The Henderson yard have farmed this race in recent years, winning it six times since 2011. They look to have a strong candidate in Califet En Vol, who showed good form over hurdles and makes his chase debut here, as Jango Baie did last year. His hurdle form has been franked, finishing 3 lengths behind The New Lion in a novice before winning next time and beating subsequent winners who finished second, third, fourth and fifth. He was last seen finishing sixth over 24f in a Grade 1 hurdle at Aintree and should appreciate the drop back in trip on chase debut. The class horse in the race.
12:05 12:05 Cheltenham
Kingston Queen
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.25
Lose
-50
Mightily impressive on her first start over hurdles, running away to win by 7L over 20f. Steps back in trip today, but the form of that win has been franked, with the 2nd and 3rd both winning cosily next time. She also posted some strong form at this trip in bumpers.
Subtotal-200
07 December 2025
15:15 3:15 Kelso
Gibbs Island
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
This is a big drop in class for Gibbs Island, who started his campaign with a win at Cheltenham from a mark of 132 before never getting involved in the Greatwood Hurdle from a mark 8 lbs higher. Dropped 2 lbs for that and now drops into a Class 3 handicap. He simply should have too much quality for this field, with the yard in strong form (25% last 14 days).
1 member found this comment useful
14:37 2:37 Kelso
Nells Son
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.00
Lose
-50
Nells Son goes from the same mark as when getting up to beat Matata in this race last year (144) and is 3 lbs better off with that rival. He reappeared with a spin over hurdles, and the cheekpieces go back on as he returns to the larger obstacles at a venue he loves. His figures here are 1-1-F-2-1-1, including the last two chasing over C&D. There looks to be plenty of competition for the lead, which won't help Matata as he bids to turn the form around. That should give Nells Son a good tow into the race.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 2:00 Kelso
Grozni
Daily Racing
25 EWNBNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 23.00 used instead of 19.00 takenBOG
@23.00
Win
660
Hasn't pulled up any trees in his two starts (both here) since joining Sandy Thomson, but both were over trips likely too short for him these days. His trainer has an excellent record in this race, having won five times since 2014. He's 4 lb below when fourth in the Scottish National last term and won't mind the soft ground. Tongue tie goes on and a former champion jockey is in the saddle.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal560
06 December 2025
15:15 3:15 Aintree
Brewinupastorm
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@26.00
Lose
-50
Makes his return off a long break and drops into handicap company for the first time since January 2021. The handicapper hasn't relented much, but a mark of 145 could still look lenient for a horse of his class, who is a multiple graded winner. Bryan Hughes takes the ride, having won on him before, and being 12 years old there can't be many "other days" circled in the calendar. Clearly plenty of question marks, but that's factored into the price, and the yard have claimed this prize twice in the last five years.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Aintree
Mahons Glory
Daily Racing
25 EW
@34.00
Lose
-50
Mahons Glory is being overlooked in the market, and I'm struggling to understand why. He finished fourth in the Grand Sefton from a mark 1 lb higher and is likely to put up another bold show from the front. I like horses ridden handy. He doesn't have much form at staying trips, but his two runs at 24f saw him finish fifth in a Grade 2 novice hurdle and then fifth of six when outclassed in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle. He won twice in the spring at 22.5f and has dropped to the same mark as when beating The Wolf in March. He took well to these fences last time and could spring a surprise.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Sandown
Afadil
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@9.00
Win
15
A tricky contest with the added spice that I'm not convinced everyone is here to win. I liked Go Dante, but no cheekpieces suggest the Betfair Hurdle is the aim. Of the Skelton runners, there's only one who looks to be targeting this ??" last year's winner Knickerbockerglory, who is 6 lbs higher today. My preference instead is for Afadil, who has posted some strong form for Paul Nicholls. His stable is in good form with two winners on Friday. Afadil was weak in the market when only mid-division on reappearance last time and should come on for the run. He's 4 lbs below his last winning mark and 10 lbs lower than when finishing 5th in the 2024 County Hurdle on heavy ground behind Absurde. He finished 0.5L 3rd on his only visit to Sandown, and he's an each-way price in a field where I can only make a case for two.
1 member found this comment useful
13:36 1:36 Chepstow
Minella Blueway
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@9.00
Win
15
I don't like horses held up at Chepstow over marathon trips, and for that reason I'm happy to oppose the fav. I suspect a few might have the Welsh National in mind and be ridden with kid gloves. Minella Blueway ran a respectable race despite being PU on reappearance LTO, but the headgear goes back on today, having won in it twice last season (2 from 2). The yard won this a few years ago and are in good form. A mark of 122 leaves plenty of scope given he's unexposed at staying trips and should be ridden close enough to challenge.
1 member found this comment useful
13:20 1:20 Sandown
Kikijo
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 4.33 on 05/12 at 17:200.15 deduction for Chasing Fire@6.50 withdrawn at 06:350.10 deduction for The Lord Maid @8.500 withdrawn at 06:350.20 deduction for Absolutely Doyen @4.333 withdrawn at 07:07R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 3.33 x (1-0.45) = 2.83Best Odds Guaranteed SP 3.25 used instead of 2.83 BOG
@3.25
Win
112
Impressive last time on his second start at 2m4f. Possibly better suited by the soft going, having won in France with plenty of cut in the ground. A 7 lb rise for that doesn't look OTT, particularly with a 3 lb claimer in the saddle. He can continue his upward rise with conditions to suit.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal42
30 November 2025
13:05 1:05 Fairyhouse
History Of Fashion
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@26.00
Lose
-50
Last year's winner is now an 11-year-old, but his record at Fairyhouse gives faith that he can repeat the feat. His form figures are 2-5-1 over C&D. A mark of 123 is just 1 lb higher than last year, when he won by 1.25L, and the same 7 lb claimer is in the saddle. He's ground versatile and overpriced in my eyes.
Subtotal-50
29 November 2025
15:35 3:35 Newbury
Rath Gaul Hill
Daily Racing
25 EW
@6.50
Lose
-50
A two-time C&D winner in two visits to Newbury, Rath Gaul Hill still looks well treated from a mark of 123, having run really well when 3 lbs out of the handicap at Aintree when last seen. He goes well fresh, having won here off a 315-day break last February when the front two pulled well clear of the rest.
14:55 2:55 Newbury
Victtorino
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
Victtorino was sent off 5/1 when 5.25L third in this last year from a mark of 143. Although 4 lbs higher today, I fancy he's got every chance of hitting the frame again. He stayed on well last year, but the front two had slipped the field and he was able to get to them. Whilst he's done most of his winning at Ascot, he seemed well at home here at Newbury. He goes well fresh, and I fancy he'll be part of a good day for the Venetia Stable.
14:00 2:00 Newcastle
The New Lion
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.75
Lose
-50
I've seen it suggested that TNL might be vulnerable here as he builds back from the Champion Hurdle, but I couldn't disagree more. Constitution Hill is on the rebuild, and I'd be shocked if connections had him tuned up for this. The Skelton team are going great guns for the title and will have their mount rearing to go in order to set down a marker and gain some valuable prize money.
13:19 1:19 Fairyhouse
Murcia
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-50
I can't see past Murcia, who was given a hard task to concede plenty of weight in the Fred Winter. Put that behind her when bolting up in the Grade 1 juvenile at Aintree, winning by 6L. Beaten at Punchestown when finishing 4th, but that was her 5th run since Christmas and I'm happy to upgrade that effort at the end of the season. Although the bare form would still be enough here in my view. Has to concede weight to her rivals, but she's a class apart and the yard have won this the last two years.
13:05 1:05 Newbury
Buddy Holly
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
Nicky Henderson seemingly has his novices well schooled, with Act of Innocence dotting up on his hurdles debut on Friday after switching to the yard. Buddy Holly looks an exciting prospect, having finished a good 7th in the Punchestown bumper back in April for his previous stable. The yard have won this four times since 2014, including with Santini and Jingko Blue. This race has a strong roll of honour, and he looks the one to me that has real star potential stepping up in trip.
12:30 12:30 Newbury
Wiseguy
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@12.00
Lose
-50
Last year's winner Wiseguy is just 2 lbs higher to repeat the feat. With his record fresh, he could take some beating. He has form figures of 3-2-1-1 when reappearing in November off a 150+ day break. The yard is in good form (29% in the last 14 days), and Freddie Gordon takes the ride, which is a plus given how much confidence he's riding with at the moment.
11:55 11:55 Newbury
La Conquiere
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.75 used instead of 2.50 takenBOG
@2.75
Win
87
Brings top bumper form to the table, having finished 2nd at Aintree in the Grade 2 Mares Bumper in the spring. Took well to hurdles LTO when pulling well clear with one other to win. The runner-up has dotted up by 6.5L since, and the yard remains in really strong form.
Subtotal-213
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