Tips History

c4stle's Tips History

23 April 2024

16:10 4:10 Tipperary

Music Of Tara

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@3.75

Win

137

Rated 122 over hurdles, failing to see out the trip at 24f last time when brought down at the rear of the field. Former point winner who should appreciate and could improve for fences. In receipt of 10lbs from the 130-rated So Des Flos she looks weighted for a big effort on chase debut.

15:35 3:35 Tipperary

Now Is The Hour

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@2.88

Void

Fancied Now Is The Hour when pulled out at Down Royal a week ago and I think this Grade 2 hurdle winner showed enough on chase debut to suggest that he can put the rest of this field to the sword. Former p2p winner but also won a maiden at this trip and can make his class show.

21 April 2024

16:00 4:00 Curragh

Jumbly

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.00

Lose

-50

Hasn't won since joining Joseph O'Brien but all runs have come at either Group 2 or Group 1 level (including American equivalents) and this represents a huge drop in class down to Listed level. Has to concede race fitness to some but has finished 2nd on last two seasonal reappearances both at a higher level and ran well on her only start here in the past.

1 member found this comment useful

20 April 2024

15:55 3:55 Curragh

White Birch

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.33 used instead of 4.00 takenBOG

@4.33

Win

166

I napped White Birch for this race when it was abandoned due to an untraceable track, and with most of the field standing their ground I don't see any reason to abandon him. His form lines are above those most of his rivals have posted, having finished 2nd in the Dante and 3rd in The Derby over 12f. His only win last season came in the Group 3 Ballysax at Leopardstown in heavy ground, and although that form isn't at the same level it shows he can go well fresh and will handle the poor conditions better than most.

1 member found this comment useful

15:35 3:35 Ayr

Mr Vango

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Really competitive contest with lots of proven starters mixed with unexposed types that could improve for this marathon trip. Mr Vango ticks both boxes having had just three starts over fences, winning by 60L on his first start at a marathon trip before finishing a very respectable 3rd in the National Hunt Chase behind Graded horses in Corbetts Cross and Embassy Gardens. Likely to make a bold show from the front in favourable conditions, and I think a mark 135 still leaves him with lots in hand being so lightly raced.

15:15 3:15 Newbury

Navagio

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

Competitive handicap with the last two winners coming from the Lincoln to win here next time, and only 3 have won this without a prep run since 2011 so fitness is clearly a big positive. Navagio caught the eye in the Lincoln when short of room toward the finish, still running well to finish 3rd from todays mark of 96. That was on soft ground but he's equally adept on a quicker surface and his low draw looks ideal with loads of pace nearby. Can make amends on his 2nd UK start.

1 member found this comment useful

14:40 2:40 Newbury

Zoum Zoum

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@3.25

Lose

-50

Boasts 3 wins from 3, first on the AW and then twice on heavy ground, latterly at Listed level in France. The form of his Newmarket win two starts back looks strong, with the 2nd and 3rd both winning next time, and his sire was a Group 1 winner on good ground in Australia so the quicker surface could yield further improvement at a trip he's proven over.

14:25 2:25 Ayr

Bialystok

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.50

Lose

-50

Happy to forgive him the run last time when down the field in the County Hurdle on poor ground and on that basis he looks well handicapped from a mark of 137. That's 1lb lower than when brought down in a competitive handicap hurdle at the DRF when travelling strongly and just 7lbs higher than when winning a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival as a novice last year. His trainer has an eye on the UK trainers championship and any ride Paul Townsend takes in a handicap needs to be respected. This is calmer waters than the last twice and he's weighted to go well.

1 member found this comment useful

19 April 2024

15:20 3:20 Ayr

Doddiethegreat

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.00

Lose

-50

More than happy to strike a line through his run at Cheltenham last time given the stable form was in the doldrums but he still managed to finish mid division. Sent off 9/1 that day despite the form of the Henderson yard and that speaks volumes of the progression expected from this horse from todays mark of 132. 4th in the Betfair Hurdle two starts back, a neck behind subsequent Imperial Cup winner Go Dante giving away 3lbs. Also gave 3lbs to County Hurdle 2nd Leau Du Sud who finished two places ahead of him. The step back up to 21f is expected to suit (ignoring last time) and soft ground no issue either.

18 April 2024

18:15 6:15 Clonmel

Hollow Games

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.20

Lose

-50

With Gaelic Arc returning from almost 500 days off the track this looks like a two horse race. The Mullins horse has had just the one start over fences which was a winning one but that doesn't tell the full story with the front two falling at the last when both clear. Hollow Games on the other hand is a seasoned pro with 8 starts over fences, winning on his first start and running with credit in top level handicaps including when 3rd in the Galway Plate. Has found his level since, finishing mid division in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas from a mark of 144 and then similar over hurdles at Cheltenham from the same mark. That suggests he's likely a high 130s horse but evidence suggests that might be enough to beat the Mullins horse who was fairly exposed over hurdles and reached a mark of 134.

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Spycatcher

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@8.50

Lose

-50

Spycatcher ran with plenty of credit in a pair of 6f Group 1s last year, finishing a neck 2nd in the Maurice Du Gheest at Deauville and latterly 3rd in the Group 1 Champion Sprint at Ascot in October. Both of those came on soft ground but he also dotted up on a quick surface to win a Group 3 in France and conditions here should be fine. His record fresh breathes confidence, with figures of 1-1-1 after more than 100 days off the track and with a huge lack of pace on offer it could pay to be up near the front as he's been ridden the last twice.

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17 April 2024

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Abate

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

Two against the field in this competitive big field handicap and I think Abate represents a really solid each way bet. He's the only genuine front runner in the field and had a really impressive 2023 seasom which included four wins from marks of 75, 75, 81 & 82. Won over C&D two starts back with subsequent winners back in 2nd, 4th, 6th and 7th, before almost following up on his final start at Ripon from 2lbs higher. Has won first time out in the past and stable have had 2 winners from their last 5 runners so clearly in good form. Goes from a career high mark of 85 but regular rider Mia Nicholls takes off 5lbs and I think he can catch a few on the hop.

Great Ambassador

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@21.00

Lose

-50

A chance is taken on Great Ambassador who hasn't been seen since finishing 0.5L 3rd in a Listed contest on the July Course in August 2022. In his absence he's dropped to a mark of 100 which is 8lbs below his peak, and 6lbs below the mark from which he was ultra competitive in the 2022 Stewards Cup two starts back. Excuses that day he's extremely well handicapped if ready to go first time up. Stable are in fine form including two winners today (Tuesday) at Newmarket, both on seasonal debut. Doesn't look loads of pace on offer but Abate will go forward from stall 13 and there are forward goers in stalls 17/18 too. Great Ambassador will be help up but from stall 16 he could get a nice lead into the race in conditions which will suit fine. Win bet only as he's either on song and has 7/8lbs in hand or this is a seasonal tune up which would see him completely out the frame after 599 days off.

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16 April 2024

15:50 3:50 Naas

Coillte Aris

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@6.00

Lose

-50

Paul Townend keeps the faith having been jocked up on Coiltte Aris last time, sent off 9/2 fav from todays mark of 91. That was just her 2nd handicap start and was doing her best work at the end, suggesting this form p2p runner can improve for the step up to 19.5f now in handicap company, in similar conditions to last time.

13:30 1:30 Naas

Union Station

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

Finishing 3rd on all three hurdles starts, first behind Tullyhill on debut and then latterly behind Glen Kiln and last time behind Rainbow Trial and Well Dressed. Rainbow Trial finished close behind Tounsivator who was sent off 3/1 for the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse which gives the form a solid look and I think the drop back to 16.5f at a track he's gone well in the past (similar C&D to his debut 3rd behind Supreme Novice horse Tullyhill) can yield a positive result in conditions he will appreciate.

14 April 2024

17:25 5:25 Down Royal

The Abbey

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@8.00

Lose

-50

The Abbey beat Yeah Man by 4.75L on his previous visit to Down Royal which came over C&D. In receipt of 17lbs that day but that rival is now rated 140 meaning The Abbey could yet be well treated off a higher mark of 115 at a track he clearly goes well and in the same conditions.

16:15 4:15 Down Royal

Now Is The Hour

Daily Racing

50 WINNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@2.10

Void

Grade 2 winner over hurdles at 24f as well as a maiden winner at 20f. Started off over fences last time at the minimum trip of 16f and ran a decent race to finish 1.75L to Summer Tide giving away 5lbs, but should really appreciate the step back up in trip here. His hurdles form sets the standard and chase debut showed enough promise to suggest there's plenty more time come at longer trips.

13 April 2024

17:00 5:00 Aintree

Found A Fifty

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.25

Win

112

We've already seen the Arkle form franked by Il Etait Temps when comfortably dispatching Grey Dawning and Ginnys Destiny so for all the reasons I'm with Master Chewy each way, I think Found A Fifty is the likeliest winner. Jumped really well that day before Gaelic Warrior showed his class to pull away to the hill. A return to a flatter track and what looks to be calmer waters (no superstar in here) are both positives and I think Elliot can notch up another Aintree winner.

1 member found this comment useful

Master Chewy

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Win

Travelling strongly when coming down at the 2nd last in the Arkle and every chance he'd have finished in the mix with Found A Fifty. Il Etait Temps franked that forming when bolting up over 20f today and Gaelic Warrior simply looks like a superstar on his day. The Twiston-Davies runner has a strong record at Aintree, winning a novice handicap by 12L from a mark of 121 on his debut over fences (beating 3 subsequent winners in behind) and followed that up by just failing to give Djelo 3lbs over the same C&D. That rival is in here but stable are struggling for winners and I think Master Chewy has improved since as seen in his 2nd to subsequent Grade 1 winner Elixir Du Nutz in open handicap company. Should handle conditions at a track he clearly enjoys.

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16:00 4:00 Aintree

Mahler Mission

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I never want to be too far back in the National and Mahler Mission should be ridden prominently. Has proven his stamina when falling with the race at his mercy in the 2023 National Hunt Chase in front of 2023 National 3rd Gaillard Du Mesnil. 2nd in the Coral Gold Cup last time and 7lbs higher today but the winner Datsalrightgino proved himself to be a graded horse and I think Mahler Mission will be uniquely suited by this sort of stamina test. Has won on good and on soft/heavy so ground will be fine whatever and I think he's the solid choice to him the frame. Other picks include Limerick Lace, Eldorado Allen and Stattler.

2 members found this comment useful

Meetingofthewaters

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@13.00

Lose

-50

I think to back something win only in this they need to really be a potential handicap blot and the one that meets that criteria is Meetingofthewaters for Willie and Danny Mullins. Bolted up at Christmas from a mark of 130 when in receipt of 10lbs from Panda Boy (big weight swing in favour of that rival) and the unseated at the DRF. His run in the Ultima was his 6th over fences which got him qualified for this and I don't imagine winning was necessarily the aim with the National in mind. Runs here today from 147 but could still have 10+ lbs in hand which can't be said for most of this field. This feels like a long term project which can yield a positive result for the Irish (and possibly British) champion trainer elect.

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15:05 3:05 Aintree

Hiddenvalley Lake

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@9.00

Lose

-50

It's a tip in itself that Robcour have decided Hiddenvalley Lake is the one for this. I didn't expect Teahupoo to back up but really fancied Irish Point to romp home following his Christmas Hurdle win and Champion Hurdle 2nd. Still fairly lightly raced after just five hurdle starts, and has run respectably over 3m in the past including when 9th in the Albert Bartlett last year. Went chasing initially (likely because of the riches Robcour have over hurdles) but tipped up and sent back over hurdles instead, winning the Boyne Hurdle cosily over the smaller obstacles. Ground versatile and step back up in trip shouldn't be an issue having finished 2nd to Monty's Star as a novice. I'll be tipping Strong Leader each way but Hiddenvalley Lake can continue a rich vein of form for the De Bromhead stable.

1 member found this comment useful

Strong Leader

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 11.00 on 11/04 at 21:030.00 deduction for Proschema@101.00 withdrawn at 09:190.15 deduction for Sire Du Berlais @6.500 withdrawn at 12:23R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 10.00 x (1-0.15) = 9.50

@9.50

Win

255

Narrowed this down to two against the field having tipped Hiddenvalley Lake for Henry De Bromhead but I'm also following in on Strong Leader for the in form Olly Murphy team (26% last 14 days). Has run twice at the track in the past , winning a novice hurdle by 8L before finishing 2nd to Inthepocket in the Grade 1 16f Top Novices last April. Ran credibly on his first try at 24f at Cheltenham on Trials Day, coming from a long way back to finish 3rd behind Noble Yeats and Paisley Park. Didn't look to handle the track brilliantly that day and should be suited by a return to this flatter course.

2 members found this comment useful

14:30 2:30 Aintree

Crebilly

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@5.00

Lose

-50

Crebilly couldn't quite get to Shakem'up Harry but he was doing good work at the business end, suggesting that this step up in trip will suit. Trainer Jonjo O'Neill has won this twice from seven runners and I think a 3lbs rise could still underestimate him with the promise of more improvement to come at this longer trip. Novice form in behind Grey Dawning and Ginnys Destiny reads better and better, and Trelawne (split Crebilly from that pair) was backed into 5/1 for the Ultima before unseating at the first which highlights connections feel there's lots of scope for that horse from a mark of 144. All points to him still being well handicapped after just 4 starts over fences and conditions should suit him fine with it likely to dry a bit by Saturdays racing.

1 member found this comment useful

13:55 1:55 Aintree

Brighterdaysahead

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 3.00 on 11/04 at 15:280.25 deduction for Caldwell Potter@4.00 withdrawn at 19:27R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.00 x (1-0.25) = 2.50

@2.50

Win

Didn't get the best of rides in the Mares Novice last time, being pipped for toe in a tactical contest. She's a real staying type who has thrived with plenty of cut in the ground. Could be drier by Saturday but I'm sure it'll still be on the soft side of good and she's likely to go through the holding ground better than most. Her form prior to Cheltenham was a bit of a non-event as she had won cosily in her three starts over hurdles, including over 21f prior to the festival. Cheltenham form will be tested Friday at 14:55 but I suspect she's much better than she's shown on the course so far, with her trainer always enthusiastic, and I expect the step back up to 20f to suit as she will get every yard of this trip and looks the solid option against rivals with points to prove.

2 members found this comment useful

13:20 1:20 Aintree

Chantry House

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

I really fancied Chantry House for a big run at Cheltenham but the stable form was in the doldrums and he finished just 10th of 22. He's been dropped another 2lbs for that effort to a mark of 141 which is 19lbs lower than his rating when winning the Cotswold Chase in January 2022 and he's shown some signs of a revival recently over hurdles including when 3rd at Cheltenham in November from 6lbs higher when behind Stayers Hurdle 4th giving him 7lbs. Has gone well at Aintree before with figures of 1-U from two visits and his blinkers are retained from last time. Stable had a winner today (Thursday) and I'd expect a bigger run today at a much bigger price than last time.

1 member found this comment useful

12 April 2024

17:15 5:15 Aintree

Maidenstreetprince

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-50

If drawing a line through his run two starts back at Galway (first run for 285 days) Maidenstreetprince looks really well handicapped from this UK mark 128 under a 3lbs claimer. Won at Limerick in December 2022 with a number of subsequent winners in behind, then finished a distant 3rd (23L) to Gaelic Warrior but even that is a fair level of form given what that horse has gone on to achieve. LTO he was travelling strongly upsides Sir Gerhard when falling two out, admittedly in receipt of 10lbs. That rival is rated 155 and with ground conditions also to suit (last 4 runs on soft or heavy) I wouldn't be surprised to see the money coming for the Charles Byrnes runner.

2 members found this comment useful

16:40 4:40 Aintree

Pinot Rouge

Daily Racing

25 EW

@67.00

Lose

-50

I'm happy to give all the Albert Bartlett horses a pass having run in heavy ground just a few weeks ago. Pinot Rouge is the outsider of the lot and won on soft ground herself LTO but that was almost 6 weeks ago and just her second run of the season so I fancy she could be ready to go again. That form doesn't look obviously strong but a few of the field have run well OK next time and I have significant doubts about many of her rivals. Looked like she wasn't doing much at the finish and trainer reaches for cheekpieces, she's sure to handle conditions and has fewer question marks about her wellbeing to me that most of this field.

1 member found this comment useful

16:05 4:05 Aintree

Frero Banbou

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Frero Banbou has had just the one spin over this obstacles when finishing 3rd behind Gesskille back in November from a mark of 133, and ran with credit last time from the same mark when having to race wide in the Plate at Cheltenham, eventually finishing 6th. Same C&D as his 3rd in the Topham but has been dropped 2lbs to a mark of 131, 3lbs below his last winning mark. Heavy ground would suit fine (same as Topham run) and although Venetia doesn't have a great record in this he will likely be ridden forward and can make the frame at a nice price.

1 member found this comment useful

15:30 3:30 Aintree

Pic DOrhy

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.33

Lose

-50

Another Aintree contest in which Cheltenham Festival horses meet with horses kept fresh, with my approach generally being to favour the latter after a soft ground festival just four weeks ago. Pic D'Orhy won this last year after following a similar route which bypassed Prestbury in favour of the Ascot Chase. His form has arguably improved this year and he was impressive on soft ground in this race last year. Doubts remain over the Henderson runners but I'm certain Paul Nicholls will have his string ready to deliver their peak efforts in a bid to retain his champion trainer crown.

1 member found this comment useful

14:55 2:55 Aintree

Mystical Power

Daily Racing

50 WINNBNOTETip made at odds of 3.00 on 10/04 at 21:290.10 deduction for Golden Ace@9.00 withdrawn at 08:230.15 deduction for Dysart Enos @5.500 withdrawn at 09:19R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.00 x (1-0.25) = 2.50

@2.50

Win

Simply put I think Mystical Power is the best of these, just getting picked off LTO to finish 2nd in the Grade 1 Supreme Novice. Settled much better in first time hood and he's still on the upgrade having had just 3 career starts. Unraced on heavy (has won on soft) but both his parents won on heavy and I don't see the ground as an issue. He finished 3.5L in front of Firefox last time and those two set the standard; I see no reason why that form should be reversed.

1 member found this comment useful

14:20 2:20 Aintree

Whats Up Darling

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@17.00

Win

Will be suited by soft ground more than most having run with cut in the ground on all 5 starts over hurdles, finishing 2nd in a maiden behind Answer To Kayf then winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle. 5th in a Grade 1 then 2nd in a Grade 3 on heavy before a respectable 6th in a heavy ground Martin Pipe when not given a tough race at the business end. The front end of that race could yet be graded horses and What's Up Darling comes here 1lb lower from a mark of 136 for a race his trainer has effectively won twice in the last 4 runnings (including "Denise Foster" effort).

1 member found this comment useful

13:45 1:45 Aintree

Giovinco

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@10.00

Lose

-50

I narrowed this down to the two outsiders, Broadway Boy and Giovinco. Don't think much of the Kim Muir form, beating poor horses by a street; nothing has come out of Heart Wood's handicap win; Iroko I think is a 20f horse; Cianti Classico was impressive in the Ultima but I think that was the cup final this year and nothing really got into it from off the pace. Broadway Boy could nick this from the front in first time cheekpieces but I think Giovinco is massively overpriced based on his Brown Advisory 3rd behind Fact To File and Monty's Star. FTF would be odds on if running here and Monty's Star would be touching evens but you can get 9/1 about the 3rd placed horse who is proven on heavy ground and is a former C&D winner for a stable that's won this in the past and generally goes well at this meeting. Found himself too far back last time against two rivals that would win this comfortably in my view, and wasn't losing ground at the business end.

1 member found this comment useful

11 April 2024

16:40 4:40 Aintree

Irish Blaze

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

As noted in the OLBG trends, since 2014 only one horse has won this having run at the Cheltenham Festival, with Double W's winning here after running in the Novices Handicap Chase. With a soft ground festival I see no reason that will change and it rules out many of this field, in particular those towards the head of the market. Doesn't look masses of pace on offer and one that didn't make the trip to Prestbury Park is the Cian Collins trained Irish Blaze who was last seen finishing 3rd behind Mister Policeman and Arctic Bresil on heavy ground over 16f. Will likely go forward in a race without much pace, a tactic seen to good effect in this race recently, and he won two starts back on soft ground. Yard is in good form with 2 winners from last 6 runners and although he doesn't look massively "well in" from a UK mark of 134 under a 7lbs claimer, he doesn't seem harshly treated on a line through subsequent winner Master Policeman.

16:05 4:05 Aintree

Bennys King

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@9.50

Lose

-50

I think there will be double figures about Bennys King on the day but happy to take 17/2 for last years 2nd place to go one better this year as a 13yo. Has form in heavy ground and clearly likes this C&D, he was beaten two starts back by Cheltenham Foxhunters winner Sine Nomine before winning when stepped back in trip last time. Spyglass Hill the main danger but Bennys Hill should be fresh after skipping Cheltenham for a repeat bid at this.

15:30 3:30 Aintree

Impaire Et Passe

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.88

Win

Having taken a chance of Langer Dan each way I'm also tipping what I'd consider to be the solid win option in Impaire Est Passe for Willie Mullins. The form of his 2nd in the Hattons Grace over 20f on seasonal reappearance now looks strong with Teahupoo winning the Stayers Hurdle and IEP then chased home Champion Hurdle winner State Man at Christmas. Happy to forgive last time when forced into making the running and there looks to be plenty of pace on offer which will suit, as should conditions. This intermediate trip could be ideal having won the Ballymore over 2m5f and he missed Cheltenham so comes he fresh.

Langer Dan

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 19.00 used instead of 11.00 takenBOG

@19.00

Win

Just 8 stand their ground and with the forecast backing one each way could be folly but I think there's every chance Langer Dan could spring a surprise here in graded company. His trainer will tell everyone that he comes alive this time of year and the form would suggests that's fair with form figures of 6-1-2-B-1-1-1 in March and April, all in top level handicaps (he was bought down when sent off fav for the Martin Pipe and followed up here next time). The manner of his handicap wins will tell you that he's a graded horse at his best, and conditions, course and distance will all suit. Both the market principals can chuck in a stinker and strangely I think Langer Dan is the solid choice for a Skelton team currently leading the battle to be UK champion trainer that will surely want to fire every bullet they can.

14:55 2:55 Aintree

Shishkin

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.00

Lose

-50

Horses that are fresh having a good record at this meeting and a soft ground Cheltenham I think will mean that trend will yield a profitable return. Shishkin won this last year when dispatching Ahoy Senor and has generally shown a strong level of form this year despite now being a 10yo, first unseating at the last in the King George with the race at his mercy before winning the Grade 2 Denman Chase, with subsequent winners back in 3rd, 4th and 5th. He's one of only two in the field that skipped Cheltenham, admittedly not by design, and that freshness could make the difference against rivals that ran well back in the March.

14:20 2:20 Aintree

Sir Gino

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.20

Win

Anything at odds against is a betting proposition for me. Missed Cheltenham through powers outside his control but that means he's got freshness on his side and can show his superiority the the Triumph Hurdle 2nd Kargese, being 4lbs clear on ratings but still massively unexposed.

13:45 1:45 Aintree

Il Etait Temps

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@5.00

Win

200

The only fresh horse here is Blow Your Wad and although he's gone well at other flat tracks I think he's just lacking the class to get competitive even if the market principals are below their best. Grey Dawning and Ginnys Destiny have form which ties in closely from the Turners and although the Skelton horse reigned supreme that day I don't think there's loads in it. Instead I'm looking to the Mullins horse who has tackled this trip just once when finishing 5L behind the Arkle winner Gaelic Warrior. That represents really strong form in my book and I'm happy to forgive him his Cheltenham efforts as he doesn't show his best at that track. Stayed on well enough up the hill but his peak efforts have come elsewhere and if bringing his best to Aintree I think he can spring a small surprise for his leading trainer.

10 April 2024

15:15 3:15 Leopardstown

Goldana

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 2.50 on 09/04 at 12:320.10 deduction for Self Belief@7.00 withdrawn at 11:11R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 1.50 x (1-0.10) = 2.35

@2.35

Win

Highly tried mare who drops to Listed company for the first time for Joseph O'Brien having won a Group 3 on her seasonal debut last year. Had a run at The Curragh a couple of weeks ago where she just failed to give 20lbs to a pair of progressive 3yos in heavy ground but finished comfortably in front of the rest of the field. Won't mind the heavy ground (previous winner) and this time find herself in receipt of weight from the rest of the field owing to the mares allowance and penalties. Stable in good form and expect a strong performance down in grade.

07 April 2024

16:05 4:05 Leopardstown

Chantilly

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.75 used instead of 2.38 takenBOG

@2.75

Win

Having back The Euphrates in The Ballysax I'd also give Chantilly a leading chance in handicap company from a mark of 85. Has plenty of form in heavy ground maidens that should stand him in good stead here, stepping up in trip to 10f for the first time. Being by Galileo the step up in trip should suit and stable are in good form (25% last 14 days).

15:43 3:43 Bath

Democracy Dilemma

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@13.00

Void

Democracy Dilemma is on the drift but I think his chances are quite clear from todays mark of 97. That represents a career high on turf but as a 4yo he's still on an upward curve, rounding off last season by winning at Chester from a mark of 92. Made all to win from stall 1 that day and we could see a repeat effort here on what is a tight turning track that can favour forward going types from low draws. The win at Chester came on heavy ground and he's had a couple of runs already this year which should have him race fit. Stable in strong form, winning 3 of their last 7, and although this is a competitive race I think conditions will suit him better than most.

1 member found this comment useful

15:30 3:30 Leopardstown

The Euphrates

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@10.00

Lose

-50

Only appeared on a racecourse at the end of September, finishing 3rd in a maiden at Killarney before winning at Gowran Park over 8.5f in heavy ground. Illinois takes plenty of focus with Moore in the saddle and being by Galileo but The Euphrates has blue blood himself, being by Frankel, and has proved his stamina in these conditions more than most. The form of his maiden win has been franked, with the 3rd winning since and the 2nd / 5th both having placed efforts. He can spring a small surprise for leading connections.

14:55 2:55 Leopardstown

Cherry Blossom

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@11.00

Lose

-50

Buttons makes appeal after the form of her maiden win was franked by stablemate Content on a number of occasions. That being said, no once raced horse has won this and it could pay to side with another A O'Brien runner in Cherry Blossom. She finished 2nd in the Group 2 Lowther over 6f and filled the same placed in the Goffs Millions over 7f. Respectable 4th in the Group 1 Cheveley Park and then happy to forgive a below par run in the Breeders Cup. She arguably sets the standard and has plenty of experience on her side. Team Ballydoyle have won this 4 times with a second string and although unraced on soft or worse her dams sire Dansili was a Group performer with cut in the ground.

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06 April 2024

15:30 3:30 Chelmsford City

Brackens Laugh

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 10.00 used instead of 8.00 takenBOG

@10.00

Win

270

The bare 8 stand their ground at this stage meaning there's three places on offer. Capulet could take all the beating after placed efforts at Group 2 level the last twice however he's short enough on seasonal debut with the potential for loftier targets later in the season, albeit this is a "win and you're in" for the Kentucky Derby. At a price preference is for Brackens Laugh who has been highly tried himself, finishing 5th at Group 1 level in France last time. His stable are in red hot form (42% last 14 days) which alleviates concerns about his fitness first time out and he brings a fresh formline into this aside from the Orne / Cuban Tiger meeting last week.

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Capulet

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-50

Even money seems more than fair for the Aiden O'Brien trained Capulet who is a maiden on turf but his form still reads very well, finishing 0.5L 2nd to stablemate Diego Velazquez in a Group 2 at Leopardstown before a staying on 3rd when looking very green at Newmarket in a Group 2 at the end of September. Won cosily on his only AW start and should have too much class for this field, being 7lbs clear on official ratings with the promise of much more to come.

15:15 3:15 Kempton

Spirit Mixer

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@11.00

Lose

-50

The form of his 2nd placed finish behind Trueshan in the Northumberland Plate is arguably the best on offer in this field, the only question is whether the ability remains after two long periods off the track. Reappeared a month ago when giving a very quiet ride at the back of the field, finishing 8th of 14 at Lingfield. He's been dropped 2lbs for that effort to a mark of 96 but it should put him right for this competitive handicap. Stable form is decent (25% last 14 days) and Oisin Murphy back in the saddle is a positive. He could have too much class for this field.

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14:55 2:55 Curragh

White Birch

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.75

Void

Sprung a surprise this time last year when winning the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes on heavy ground over 10f then proved that was no fluke when finishing 3rd in The Derby over 12f on good to firm ground. Poor run in the Irish Derby and finished 4th (behind Lafayette) at Leopardstown in September. Returns from a break doesn't hold any concerns and the form book suggests this might be the time of year to catch him in conditions which he's thrived in a previously. That Derby form is the strongest on offer (front two have won multiple G1s since and the 6th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 14th have all won Group races). I'm not suggesting they all ran their race that day but equally I don't see how that formline can be cribbed and if returned in the same fettle as last year he can pick up another Group prize himself.

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14:40 2:40 Kempton

Youthful King

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

Youthful King has hit the bar the last twice, being held up before rattling home late on to finish just outside of the frame. There looks to be plenty of pace on here, with forward goers in stalls 4, 6, 9, 12 & 14 , and a repeat effort could see connections rewarded at a track where patient tactics have often been rewarded. A mark of 90 is the same as LTO and 2lbs lower than his placed efforts on turf.

14:05 2:05 Kempton

Many Tears

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-50

One of the few that have already won at Listed level with many being handicappers stepping up in grade, including the fav Choisyia. 4yos have a fine record in this and Many Tears was bought for 300k out of Ger Lyon's yard after winning cosily at Dundalk back in November. Stable are in good form, winning with 2 of their last 9 runners, and stall 5 keeps all options open.

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