c4stle
1
Estimated Prizes
this month
£10
Estimated Prize money
this month
c4stle's Tips History
10 March 2026
16:40 4:40 Cheltenham
Guard Your Dreams
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+2500
Lose
-50
We've seen age is just a number in this race, with three winners in the last four years aged ten or eleven. C&D form so often comes to the fore with many handicap chases here during the season. That brings Guard Your Dreams into proceedings, who, despite being ten, is relatively unexposed over fences. Despite running in the Ultima last year (fell at the first), I feel his best form is at this trip. He bolted up in a veterans' chase last time on heavy ground, but he's a Grade 2 winner over hurdles here on good-to-soft. I think he can make a mark from 141.
1 member found this comment useful
16:00 4:00 Cheltenham
Golden Ace
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+1200
Lose
-50
She's drifting to too big a price, having won this race last year, and I struggle to see her out of the frame. In my view, she had the beating of The New Lion earlier in the season, and she's 2 from 2 at the Cheltenham Festival. Will be happy on the quicker ground and represents the solid choice.
Lossiemouth
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@+200
Win
100
I'm delighted Lossiemouth is coming here, as I think she's the one to beat at a track where she's 4 from 4 previously. I'm happy to forgive her Leopardstown run, as she's got a much more modest record there, whereas it's BDA's home turf. I like the cheekpieces going on. Although she's far from ungenuine, we've seen Mullins use the headgear to good effect, including State Man in this race last year when he was set to bolt up before a final-flight fall. I think she sets the standard, given there are question marks over all her rivals. The New Lion doesn't look quick enough. BDA has flopped on both visits here. Golden Ace has benefitted from falling horses for her main wins.
1 member found this comment useful
15:20 3:20 Cheltenham
Myretown
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+1000
Lose
-50
Not sure this is a particularly strong renewal, and I don't like siding with a horse that hasn't raced over 3m previously. Every winner this century had posted their best RPR over at least 24f (thanks to Gault Stats). Iroko will threaten now the handbrake can come off, and I do think Hyland is well handicapped but not enough to win. Myretown won this by a stretch last year, and although he's 15 lbs higher he looked a potential Graded horse that day but has lacked fluency since, whilst the yard has been out of form. They've picked up in the last few weeks, and I suspect a return to Cheltenham will suit from a mark of 142. We've seen many multiple winners of this race, including Corach Rambler for the same yard, and the fact Myretown is their only representative is, I think, a strong tip in itself.
2 members found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Cheltenham
Saratoga
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 7.00 on 08/03 at 18:590.10 deduction for Munsif@9.00 withdrawn at 13:150.00 deduction for Lord @34.000 withdrawn at 13:15R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 6.00 x (1-0.1) = 6.40Best Odds Guaranteed SP 11.00 used instead of 6.40 BOG
@+1000
Win
500
His jumping has improved start to start, and I'm sure this has been the target since he was purchased from Aidan O'Brien on the level, where he was rated in the low 90s after just six starts. He represents connections who won this four years ago. Despite a 5 lb Irish tax, he still looks well treated from a mark of 130, having been given a tender ride last time behind Triumph Hurdle horse Highland Crystal.
1 member found this comment useful
13:20 1:20 Cheltenham
Old Park Star
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@+275
Win
137
Hard to know where he sits against the Irish form, but he couldn't have been more impressive when winning here in December by 12L. He has taken his form to new heights since going over hurdles and joining the Henderson yard, who have such a great record in this contest.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal587
07 March 2026
15:20 3:20 Ayr
Triple Crown Ted
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@+162
Lose
-50
Triple Crown Ted looks a progressive horse against more exposed types and can continue his upward curve from a mark of 114, 4 lb higher than his win LTO. I think better ground should suit, and his yard have hit form. This should be well below his ceiling.
15:15 3:15 Wolverhampton
Cool Hoof Luke
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 3.75 used instead of 2.75 takenBOG
@+275
Win
137
Top class as a 2yo, including winning the Group 2 Gimcrack at York. Missed his 3yo campaign but showed he retains his ability when third in the Katchy Stakes at Lingfield on reappearance LTO. Steps up in trip here, but he was Group 2 placed over 7f as a 2yo and should come on plenty for his return. As an older horse he should see out this trip, and with absolutely no pace on offer I expect Oisin to take the bull by the horns as the best horse in the race and make all. I'm sure connections have aspirations of Group races through the summer, so should be able to claim this prize.
1 member found this comment useful
14:42 2:42 Wolverhampton
Kingdom Come
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+700
Lose
-50
Seemingly revitalised by cheekpieces. Has gone well two starts back and then got his nose in front last time from a mark of 96. A 3 lb rise still leaves him well handicapped on old form, including winning this from a mark of 101 two years ago. His yard couldn't be in better form, with three winners from their last four runners, and I think he has every chance of following up.
14:27 2:27 Sandown
Wreckless Eric
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 12.00 used instead of 11.00 takenBOG
@+1100
Win
30
Last year's 2nd, Wreckless Eric, makes appeal in first-time cheekpieces. His yard is 4-22 when applying the headgear for the first time. He is 3 lbs lower than last year, and conditions should be fine. There's loads of pace on offer, which should suit his hold-up style.
13:15 1:15 Sandown
Galactique
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@+332
Lose
-50
Beat the Fred Winter/Triumph horse Winston Junior two starts back before bombing out on heavy ground at Cheltenham in November. Freshened up since (no surprise given the rain through Jan/Feb) and reappears from a mark of 117 for a trainer who has won this race three times since 2018. I'd give the other Moore runner a chance too, but my preference is for Galactique, who has more scope for improvement and should appreciate the conditions.
Subtotal17
21 February 2026
16:05 4:05 Kempton
Bad
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@+250
Lose
-50
3 from 3 at Kempton with two wins over C&D. Won here in October from a mark of 138 before running with credit when 5th in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham (145). Two spins at Ascot since ??" he finished 2nd last time ??" but this return to Kempton is the key. He won well enough on his last start here to suggest 144 is plenty within reach.
15:35 3:35 Kempton
Katate Dori
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@+550
Lose
-50
Katate Dori bolted up in this race last year from a mark of 125, winning by 15L. Never in the Coral Gold Cup when always behind and finishing well for sixth, clearly with a different prize in mind. Then finished 0.5L second last time, which was another step towards his peak. He's 11 lbs higher this time but enjoys Kempton and should be well suited by the makeup of the race, which sees lots of forward goers. His trainer has won this twice in the last four years and is a master at targeting races.
15:15 3:15 Fairyhouse
Intense Raffles
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+2000
Lose
-50
A chance is taken on Intense Raffles, who pulled up on his last two starts: first in the Welsh National and then in a heavy-ground Thyestes. His run in the Coral Gold Cup prior to that was OK, finishing eighth. I think a return to Fairyhouse is key for a horse who is 3 from 4 here (including an easy Irish National win), with his only defeat coming when he was a neck second to the subsequent Grand National winner in this race last year. Cheekpieces and a return to this track are enough for me to keep the faith.
Subtotal-150
14 February 2026
16:30 4:30 Haydock
Unexpected Party
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.00 used instead of 2.88 takenBOG
@+300
Win
150
Confirmed his class in this sphere when winning easily on his hunter chase debut. He should set a marker by following up here ahead of the Cheltenham Festival. He was 10 lbs better than Shearer under rules, and I see no reason why that form should be turned around here.
15:50 3:50 Haydock
Stay Away Fay
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+1400
Lose
-50
Seems to have found some sort of form last time when second over C&D in first-time blinkers. He led throughout before being short of room at the business end and getting pipped for the win. Raised 4 lbs for that, but a mark of 140 is massively below his peak if the headgear works the trick again. The ground was soft for his Grade 1 win in the Albert Bartlett as a novice, so he clearly won in mind conditions. Could simply be too good if on a going day.
1 member found this comment useful
15:15 3:15 Haydock
Git Maker
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+1100
Lose
-50
Happy to draw a line through the Welsh National where many didn't run their race, and he's well handicapped on previous form, including 2nd in the Kim Muir (beaten by a future Gold Cup winner) from 132 and 3rd in the Scottish National from 133. Glimpses was 4th last year from effectively 9 lb higher in this race and should be better suited by the very soft ground, with a yard remaining in strong form.
1 member found this comment useful
Myretown
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@+275
Lose
-50
Has flattered to deceive this term after bolting up in the Ultima at Cheltenham and looking every inch a graded horse. Fell on seasonal return, and then jumping lacked fluency here last time. The yard bounced back to form with three winners at Kelso yesterday, and Myretown can continue their hot streak with soft ground and a potentially soft lead, both to suit from a mark of 142.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Ascot
Sam Brown
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+2200
Lose
-50
This doesn't look the strongest contest to me, and the cream could rise to the top with 14-year-old Sam Brown. Won at Newbury last March from a mark of 152 under today's claimer (10 lb claim then) and then ran well at Aintree. Respectable return in November, and runs here from a mark of 154 with Chad Bemant claiming 7. Sets the standard in a field where half are 10 or older, and the younger rivals don't look to have loads in hand. Won here on his last visit and can roll back the years.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Haydock
Tashkhan
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@+2800
Win
115
A chance is taken on Tashkhan, who was pitched in at the deep end at a trip far short of what he should need LTO, finishing 5th to Old Park Star over 15.5f. He was a dour stayer of real quality on the flat, finishing 2nd in the Group 2 Long Distance Cup on Champions Day and twice 3rd in heavy-ground Group 1s at Longchamp. Staying trips on heavy ground should suit him to a tee, and he can spring a surprise with his huge class edge.
1 member found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Haydock
Beauport
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@+1100
Lose
-50
Can't be soft enough for last year's 2nd Beauport, who was beaten by the Skelton runner Gwennie May Boy and arguably faces a tougher task here. He should be well suited by the conditions. Showed enough last season to suggest he can compete in a Grade 2 hurdle, and his yard is in strong form.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal15
07 February 2026
16:45 4:45 Warwick
Popton Point
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 7.00 used instead of 4.33 takenBOG
@+600
Win
300
Crept through the field and stayed on well to win on her debut last time. The front two were 3 lengths clear of the rest. That was on soft ground, and the runner-up has won since. Although she has a penalty here, she sets the standard the rest need to reach.
15:55 3:55 Newbury
U Cant Be Serious
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+2500
Lose
-50
Seems underestimated for last year's winning yard, likely because of his poor effort at Kempton last time, which I'm happy to forgive. Prior to that, he defeated Donnacha at Exeter. That horse has since won at Cheltenham on Trials Day from 4 lbs higher. He also defeated Barlovento on chase debut at the same venue, with that rival now 8 lbs higher. He has untapped potential at staying trips, and the yard think he'll appreciate the soft conditions, so I think he's underestimated from a mark of 130.
15:20 3:20 Newbury
Faivoir
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@+4000
Win
175
The Skeltons look to have laid out Let In Rain for this, and she has every chance. But 5/2 is no price for me in a race like this. I'm happy to chance their second string, Faivoir, who comes into his own this type of year. He is ground versatile and won't mind the conditions. He finished 5th in this race last year from a mark of 137 under today's 7 lb claimer and followed that up with a nose second in the Imperial Cup from 1 lb lower. He arrives here on a mark of 132, undoubtedly well handicapped even as an 11-year-old, and is overpriced at 40/1.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Warwick
Knappers Hill
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@+332
Lose
-50
Simply put, I think Knappers Hill is at least a 5 lbs better horse than Le Milos and potentially has plenty in hand after two encouraging runs following a long layoff. Prior to that, he was rated 153, having been a multiple Grade 2 winner over hurdles and novice chasing. With the yard in flying form, he can get back to the winning post.
1 member found this comment useful
14:10 2:10 Newbury
Haiti Couleurs
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@-120
Win
41
Looks very much an Irish Gold Cup contender, having won both the Irish and Welsh Nationals, latterly from a mark of 154. Simply better than these and I expect him to go off much shorter.
13:50 1:50 Warwick
Steel Ally
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@+110
Win
55
The money is coming for the Pauling horse, but I think he has a lot on his plate to beat Steel Ally, who has been impressive in transferring his hurdles form to the larger obstacles. Plenty of form with cut in the ground, suggesting conditions won't be an issue. The form of his win LTO looks strong, with the 3rd and 4th winning since (2nd must have a chance in the Jack Richards at Cheltenham). A drop back in trip is no issue given the heavy ground, and he had some good form around 16f over hurdles last season.
13:15 1:15 Warwick
Flying Fortune
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@+800
Lose
-50
I have doubts that Jubilee Alpha is that genuine, but she holds the 2nd and 3rd favourites on form. Preference, though, is for Flying Fortune, who was last seen bolting up in the Grade 2 Persian War Novice Hurdle at Chepstow, winning by 8.5L on soft ground, which she seems to enjoy. Off the track since (484 days), but her yard can ready one off a layoff, and I'm sure they have loftier aspirations for this mare at the spring festivals.
Subtotal421
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