c4stle

This race has recently gone to the 4yos who have come out of their classic season, turning into top-quality 8f horses. Chindit, Charyn, and Dancing Gemini all fit that mould. Of this year's crop there's only two 4yos and, while on ratings he has plenty to do, I fancy that Excellent Believe can take his form to a new level this season. Unraced as a 3yo, he ran to a good level last year, including 2nd in open company behind Zeus Olympios in the Group 3 Superior Mile. That rival won the Group 2 Joel Stakes by 2.75L next time. The ground was a little on the soft side in France, and a return to a better surface can see him continue his upward curve. Lightly raced and open to more improvement than the rest of the field, his yard is in good form already this season.

A lack of pace in the race could be key to Botanical's chances, particularly from his low draw (stall 3). Three of the last four winners were drawn in stalls 2, 3, or 4. Urban Lion in stall 2 looks another pace angle, so I want to be on the low side. Botanical didn't win last year, but he started the season here in Listed company, finishing third. His new stable seemed to be experimenting with how to get the best out of him. He's changed stables again, joining Karl Burke, who is already among the winners, and has dropped to a handicap mark of 104 for his seasonal return. He's gone well fresh and will be suited by ground on the softer side of good.