c4stle

So Rarely runs a bad race at York, winning this race from a mark of 93 in 2022 and not finishing outside the top 6 in five big handicap starts here since the start of 2024, including 6th in this last year from 91. He won three starts back and has followed it up with two more placed efforts which have seen his mark climb back to 93. He's looked as good as ever this season, even as a 7-year-old, and although there's lots of competition for the pace, I think it'll pay to be ridden handy in the first race at York this week.

Jumbeau was a good 3rd in this race last year from a mark of 86 and won LTO for the first time since, cashing in from a reduced mark of 83 under a 7lbs claimer. She's 4lbs higher here but just 1lb higher than last year, and with her stable in flying form (3 winners from last 9), she could go closer this year. Headgear was left off last time to good effect and is left off again here. She's run well on both starts at York, and with conditions to suit and a good draw in stall 3 (front runner in stall 1), I think she's overpriced.