Benaldo1981

Try to find the value in sports betting. Sod the favourite!

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Benaldo1981's Tips History

All tips
24 April 2024
23:45 LA Dodgers @ WAS Nationals

WAS Nationals

Money Line

50 WIN

@2.65

Lose

-50

Dodgers may be top of their division but they're start as faded somewhat and with Nationals having home advantage they look a value play to clinch this at the price.
23:40 PHI Phillies @ CIN Reds

PHI Phillies

Money Line

50 WIN

@2.30

Lose

-50

The Phillies have won eight of the last 10 so I think are worth a look at this price even as the visiting team. This looks much closer to a coin toss than the odds suggest.
20:00 Crystal Palace v Newcastle

Draw

50 WIN

@3.75

Open

0

Palace coming into this in a good bit of form and maybe able to match Newcastle here, this could be a draw on the balance of things as the visitors are probably also good enough to pick up something.
20:00 Everton v Liverpool

Liverpool

50 WIN

@1.40

Open

0

Liverpool have had the edge over their Merseyside rivals in recent years and are probably going to be too strong or their opponents. With European football out of the picture, there's less need for the Reds to rest players and they'll be going all out for  title tilt now. 
20:00 Man Utd v Sheff Utd

Man Utd

50 WIN

@1.33

Win

17

I think United should be too strong with the home advantage here. The Blades are nearly down and even with a shock win here, would still need to do an awful lot to beat the drop.
19:45 Wolverhampton v Bournemouth

Draw

50 WIN

@3.60

Open

0

This one looks like it could be a draw to me. Neither side really has much to play for now and they look evenly matched. I wouldn't have the draw as the outsider of the three possible outcomes.
16:00 Sara Bejlek vs Anna Blinkova

Sara Bejlek

Win Match

50 WIN

@2.20

Win

60

Bejlek wins a lot of matches on clay and it's been an indifferent start to this season for Blinkova, who has been ordinary at best. I'll chance Bejlek here.
14:30 Lucia Bronzetti vs Varvara Gracheva

Varvara Gracheva

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

i had Gracheva as my fav for this one, so I'll give her a look as statistically she looks the better on the clay surface and could well take this
14:30 Nao Hibino vs Ashlyn Krueger

Nao Hibino

Win Match

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

I don't think there's this much of a difference between the quality in these two to merit Krueger being this short in price. Hibino has the potential to take this to a deciding set, in which anything can happen.
13:30 Emma Raducanu vs Maria Lourdes Carle

Maria Lourdes Carle

Win Match

50 WIN

@4.50

Win

175

This is an unbelievable price on Carle. She's winning matches on clay for fun and even though she's stepping up here, Raducanu hardly plays on the surface and could be vulnerable.
13:00 Xinyu Wang vs Viktoriya Tomova

Viktoriya Tomova

Win Match

50 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-50

Tomova's not started the clay court season as well as you'd expect her too but Wang isn't very effective on the surface so shouldn't be the favourite in my book
13:00 Yafan Wang vs Caroline Dolehide

Yafan Wang

Win Match

50 WIN

@2.20

Open

0

Wang's not played much clay court tennis but she's been pretty good the last couple of years when switching to the surface and could cause Dolehide some problems here.
12:00 Donna Vekic vs Laura Siegemund

Laura Siegemund

Win Match

50 WIN

@2.05

Lose

-50

I think Siegemund should have the favourtism for me as she is better on the clay courts statistically and is a worthy play at this price.
11:30 Emiliana Arango vs Amanda Anisimova

Emiliana Arango

Win Match

50 WIN

@4.50

Win

175

I think it's on Anisimova to prove herself on clay (in which she's pretty rusty) before she starts being so heavily favoured so lets see if Arango can take this at a price.
10:00 Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Paula Badosa

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Win Match

50 WIN

@3.00

Win

100

This is a very close contest statistically so it's surprising that Bouzas Maneiro is this much of an underdog in the contest. She's worth a value play at this price.
10:00 Lin Zhu vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Win Match

50 WIN

@2.40

Win

70

Let's take Zhu on here as she rarely plays on court, so I think it's up to here to prove herself before we start respecting her favouritism.
10:00 Yulia Putintseva vs Yue Yuan

Yue Yuan

Win Match

50 WIN

@2.30

Lose

-50

Yuan and Putintseva look pretty evenly matched and it was the Chinese player who edged the first ever meeting between the two in Hobart at the start of the year so she looks a value play.
00:45 ARI Diamondbacks @ STL Cardinals

ARI Diamondbacks

Money Line

50 WIN

@2.15

Win

57

I think the Dbacks are worth a look at this price, they've got the better form over the last ten matches and plenty of players who can be the match winner in a pretty even contest.
00:40 HOU Astros @ CHI Cubs

CHI Cubs

Money Line

50 WIN

@2.00

Win

50

Cubs have the home advantage and the Astros are really struggling at the moment so as the road team I wouldn't make them the favourites for this one.
00:05 OAK Athletics @ NY Yankees

OAK Athletics

Money Line

50 WIN

@2.85

Lose

-50

A's will be buoyed by the win over the Yankees in the last match so potentially look a decent play at this price, even as the road team.
23 April 2024
23:50 DET Tigers @ TB Rays

DET Tigers

Money Line

50 WIN

@2.40

Win

70

Rays have lost more than they've won over the last ten matches so they look to have been over estimated at this price, even with the home advantage. Tigers are in better form and have the better record so maybe good enough to take advantage of the Rays sluggishness.
23:45 LA Dodgers @ WAS Nationals

WAS Nationals

Money Line

50 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-50

DOdgers have onlt won 3 of the last  10 and the Nationals are in better form so I think ith home advantage they are decent value play at the price.
23:40 MIL Brewers @ PIT Pirates

MIL Brewers

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

I'll chance the Brewers to take this one. After a narrow defeat last night, I think they look a more likely winner than these odds suggest of winning this contest.
23:10 BOS Red Sox @ CLE Guardians

CLE Guardians

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.95

Win

47

With a rock solid start to the season I think I'd make the Guardians the favs for this with the home advantage and better record over the last ten games.
20:00 Arsenal v Chelsea

Chelsea

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

I don't think there can be any doubt here that a Chelsea win is value at this price. They've really come on in recent weeks and Arsenal are stuttering. I wouldn't have the West Londoners at this price for the win.
19:45 Barrow v Bradford

Bradford

50 WIN

@3.10

Win

105

Bradford are already in play-off mode and are in great form at the moment whereas Barrow are the opposite so this looks a tempting play on the away win.
16:40 4:40 Southwell

Fennas Loss

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@26.00

Lose

-50

couple of pull-ups at the end of last season for FENNAS LOSS but we have one that runs well fresh and could fare better here. The handicap mark looks workable based and there's a lot at shorter prices that don't look to have as much going for them as this one.
15:55 3:55 Epsom Downs

Theres The Door

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 23.00 used instead of 17.00 takenBOG

@23.00

Win

85

14:53 2:53 Southwell

Lermoos Legend

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@17.00

Lose

-50

Pulled-up on re-appearence on heavy ground so I'm not worried about the disappointment last time out from LERMOOS LEGEND. Chances are there's much better in prospect on firmer ground and we are back to the last winning mark. Fully tuned up now and perhaps should have better in the locker.
22 April 2024
19:00 7:00 Kempton

Ve Day

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@23.00

Lose

-50

Still early days handicap hurdling for VE DAY, and this one ran well fresh when winning on stable debut last season. Generally looks a consistent sort from a decent stable and on the face of it looks to have been under-estimated now dropping back to what looks to be the preferred trip.
18:20 6:20 Windsor

Croeso Cymraeg

Daily Racing

25 EW

@23.00

Lose

-50

CROESO CYMRAEG generally runs well on re-appearence and has form on good ground in the back catalogue. The mark looks workable based on the run here last October so this one isn't one to give up on just yet.
16:25 3:55 Pontefract

Fiftyshadesaresdev

Daily Racing

25 EWNBNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 23.00 used instead of 19.00 takenBOG

@23.00

Win

85

Still a maiden and absent for a long time, so could need the run, but FIFTYSHADESARESDEV ran better than the simple form line suggests at this trip last time out and now drops in grade and has a better draw.Throw in Silvestre De Sousa in the saddle and the lighter handicaps and maybe we get a run for our money here in a weak looking affair.
16:00 4:00 Hexham

Ashjan

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

ASHJAN just strikes me as one that I can see plugging on in tough conditions at a price. Only beaten four lengths in a higher grade from three pounds higher in the weights with today's jockey on board. Quibbles over a few of the rest in the field so maybe this one can outrun the odds.
15:30 3:30 Hexham

Ex Selance

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Second in this race last year and is lighter in the weights now. If we can attribute EX S'ELANCE's last run as being a prep for a return to a track where it has a very good record then we could have a dangerously handicapped outsider here.
15:22 2:52 Pontefract

Euchen Glen

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Lose

-50

Now 11 and could be a spent force, but EUCHEN GLEN probably shouldn't be this price. Ran respectable in a group race and in the Ebor at York last season. Had a loosener last time out and should be fitter for it and the mark is low, so maybe this one gets in the frame at a big price. Tentative bet nonetheless.
20 April 2024
18:35 6:35 Thirsk

Miss Bella Brand

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@21.00

Lose

-50

18:05 6:05 Thirsk

Dandy Spirit

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

17:27 5:25 Nottingham

Refuge

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

17:00 5:00 Newbury

Qaasid

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 29.00 used instead of 26.00 takenBOG

@29.00

Win

840

Rarely seen on turf, but QAASID arrives seven pounds lighter then the last run on the green stuff at Newmarket, when it was narrowly beaten in a class three affair. Recnt all-weather disappointments, in some hot races if we're honest, have served to drop the mark down to an each-way tempter.
16:00 4:00 Bangor on Dee

Queshi Bridge

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@17.00

Void

0

I've not given up hope on QUESHI BRIDGE, who is forgiven the mistake at the first hurdle last time out, and taken on the balance of some handyish looking starts for new stable at Ludlow before that. The mark looks workable, the conditions look fine and if the yard continue to progress this one it could have the potential to land a race of this kind soon.

Tregele

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@19.00

Void

0

Same goes for TREGELE actually. its still early days and there was promise on the handicap debut the run before last. Ran well for a fair way last time out but lost a shoe and subsequently rhythm to fade quickly. Considered if back to the ability demonstrated on that handicap debut.
15:35 3:35 Ayr

Mr Vango

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@13.00

Lose

-50

Very lightly raced, and although from an unfashionable yard, MR VANGO showed plenty of staying power when thrashing the opposition at the Devon National in February and Ben Jones is back in the saddle this afternoon. Could defy the weight increase and on the soft ground is likely to take up a prominent position and avoid any trouble behind it. Could stick around to get really close but hopefuly retains enough interest to place at least.
15:15 3:15 Newbury

Revich

Daily Racing

25 EW

@67.00

Lose

-50

Lets see if the old guard of the race REVICH can hit the top six at a big price. I don't think the higher 5-6 stalls are in the reckoning here and the 8yo (an age which was the winner in recent memory, think Chatez was 8?) hasn't been drawn out of it. Enjoyed two runnings of this previously, including last season, and maybe the misfire in the Lincoln lto has served as a tune-up at least. Hit or miss and may be declining but just in case there's one more run and with the previous encouraging trips here, I'll give the outsider a look.
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19 April 2024
19:15 7:15 Bath

Ravenglass

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@17.00

Win

55

Stable does well when sending them to Bath, and consistent RAVENGLASS could well get pretty close on return to turf action. Comes in carrying much less weight than when last seen on turf, and provided the all-weather season hasn't taken too much of a strain, then this one could get involved at a big price.
16:10 4:10 Bath

Asense

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTETip made at odds of 19.00 on 19/04 at 01:370.40 deduction for Molly Mischief@2.20 withdrawn at 16:15R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 18.00 x (1-0.40) = 11.80

@11.80

Win

28

ASENSE has place claims at the very least after winning here twice last season. Also ran OK at Windsor after that despite a bit of trouble in running. This mark looks workable, the draw looks good and I'm not too concerned about the recent all-weather trips as it's turf that bring out the best in this one.
15:20 3:20 Ayr

Fostersisland

Daily Racing

25 EW

@29.00

Win

115

I'll take another look at FOSTERSISLAND here. Now below last winning mark and not far away on first run after wind surgery last time out. Pound lighter than fourth placed finish last time out, and could fare better this time round if continuing to improve.
14:30 2:30 Fontwell

Beat The Heat

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@17.00

Void

0

BEAT THE HEAT is similar to the first pick as there's also a good recent run here from higher in the handicap in the back catalogue. Two pounds lighter than a placed finish, when last here in October and the going isn't a problem either. All-weather disappointment last time out probably just a tune up for a return to the sticks.

The Cox Express

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@15.00

Lose

-50

THE COX EXPRESS placed here in a novice event the run before last and is considered from two pounds lighter in the weights. Probably found two and a half miles a touch too far last time and is considered now back to optimum trip and because we potentially have a favoured circuit.
14:12 2:12 Newbury

Aplomb

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

APLOMB generally performed well last season, placing in three of four races. Only missed out in the Ayr Silver Cup, when it was on the wrong side and still didn't disgrace itself. Not easy to win with but thrives in big fields, won't mind the going and the mark is workable too, so there's definite claims and I think the low draw is another plus.
13:20 1:20 Ayr

Belle Of Annandale

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

BELLE OF ANNANDALE is considered based on the run we saw at Musselburgh in January when it placed on soft ground from a pound higher in the weights. It was too hot a race at Leopardstown last time out, but this looks much more managable and the conditions suit once more so there are each-way claims if matching that January showing.

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