JamPizza
I'm a sports and betting enthusiast and love trying to solve the puzzle of big handicaps both on the flat and over the jumps. The majority of my tips are double figure prices and I rarely back the favourites. I'm always looking for value and try to post the tips the evening before to get the early prices. Twitter @JamPizza
2
Estimated Prizes
this month
£30
Estimated Prize money
this month
JamPizza's Tips History
17 December 2025
17:40 5:40 Kempton
El Bodon
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@11.00
Win
300
This horse easily won his only previous race on the AW before then going on to finish 2nd in a Group 3 and subsequently being given official ratings of around 104. He's had a break and returns to handicaps here off 92 in his first AW run since that easy win. Jockey bookings would suggest the trainer has her horse fit and raring to go, and a return to 6 furlongs is definitely a positive too. Shouldn't be a double-figure price for sure.
17:25 5:25 Dundalk
California Baby
Daily Racing
25 EW
@41.00
Lose
-50
This is the rank outsider in this 17-runner race, but the trainer has a 17% strike rate on the AW, which blows almost all the others out of the water. He's booked a 7 lb claiming apprentice on this unexposed horse for the first time, who is posting some excellent stats on the AW. The step up in trip is almost guaranteed to suit, and the horse has already been dropped 6 lb from her initial handicap mark. She showed enough when leading here until the final 1.5 furlongs in October to give a glimpse of her true ability, and it might just be that she shows it now she races off such a lowly mark with the 7 lb claimer booked.
15:20 3:20 Lingfield
Charlatan
Daily Racing
25 EWNBNOTETip made at odds of 17.00 on 16/12 at 16:550.10 deduction for Bear To Dream@8.50 withdrawn at 07:43R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 16.00 x (1-0.10) = 15.40
@15.40
Win
47
Charlatan has had three runs over course and distance, which include a win off 49 and a placed effort off 55. He's down to 49 again now, and the trainer has spotted a good opportunity here. This is also confirmed by the jockey booking, who is 4 from 10 on the horse (the horse is from 18 for other jockeys). Clearly, all this evidence suggests we can expect a big race from the horse, and the 16/1 is way too big; it should be nearer to half those odds, I would suggest.
Subtotal297
16 December 2025
14:15 2:15 Catterick
Somebodycomegether
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@9.00
Win
240
The tongue tie and cheekpieces combo has done the trick recently for this horse, which has been running better when they have been applied. They are still trying to get her best trip sorted, but on balance you'd have to say that this could well be it on this good to soft ground. She's still unexposed and looks sure to be bang there, so the 15/2 looks a good each-way price to me.
Subtotal240
14 December 2025
15:10 3:10 Southwell
Gold Link
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@10.00
Win
31
The key to this one looks to be a left-handed track. He flopped on a right-handed track last time out, but of his four left-handed track runs this year he's finished 2-2-1-2. Ben Jones was the last jockey to win on the horse (off a 4 lb lower mark), and his rebooking is a positive for me. The ground should be ideal (was arguably too fast last time out), and a big run looks on the cards.
12:50 12:50 Navan
San Hilario
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@6.50
Win
2
I liked the improved effort in first-time cheekpieces last time out when 2nd of 20, having been upped to this trip for the first time. That level of form under similar conditions here would be enough to be bang in the mix. The fact that he gets the services of Jack Kennedy for the first time now suggests that the trainer thinks he's found a winnable race for the horse here.
Subtotal33
13 December 2025
17:00 5:00 Wolverhampton
Amerjeet
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@15.00
Lose
-50
I'm expecting an all-or-nothing performance from this one, and therefore I'll go win only in the hope it's the former. He makes his debut for a new stable here, who do well with their handicappers, and the horse is only a 3yo, so hopefully the yard switch has worked since he's really well in on some of his 2yo form. The length defeat over C&D on debut, for example, would have the horse easily rated as 80+, so off this mark of just 57 for a new stable, the 16/1 is too big to pass on.
1 member found this comment useful
15:35 3:35 Cheltenham
Sweet Caryline
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@6.00
Lose
-50
This race structure is ideal for an each-way bet to nothing with 8 runners and 10 runners, half of which are 16/1 and bigger. This 5/1 shot is chasing a four-timer and is going to be very hard to keep out of the first three. She never wins by far, but those are often the best ones since the handicapper takes a while to catch up with them. She's clearly versatile too, having landed the odds last time out by winning over 5 furlongs further than her win in the race before. This trip could well be ideal ??" big chance.
1 member found this comment useful
13:15 1:15 Cheltenham
Me Wee Bonnie Lass
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@17.00
Lose
-50
Gavin Cromwell won this race two years ago, and his sole entry last year ran well despite not being placed. This one is worth a closer look. His winner two years ago wasn't in particularly good form, and he clearly campaigned the horse to arrive here on a good mark. That could well be the case with this one. The chase mark is below her hurdle mark now. The horse won on heavy at the start of her career and has been racing mainly on good ground since then. Perhaps soft ground and first-time cheekpieces could see her return to form. Being by Doyen, she's likely to have more ability than she's shown to date in those recent runs.
1 member found this comment useful
12:10 12:10 Cheltenham
Wolf Rayet
Daily Racing
25 EW
@34.00
Lose
-50
There's obviously a lot of guesswork here, with not much in the way of form to go on. But on breeding this one sticks out as being easily in the top three or four best bred in the race, and the 33/1 could well be the each-way value despite being easily beaten last time out. The winner of that race was then only just touched off in a Listed hurdle. Wolf Rayet was putting his best work in late in that race too, and he could step up massively on that effort with a first-time tongue tie. The softer ground should also suit, and he looks overpriced where the more fancied runners have a few doubts against some of them.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-200
12 December 2025
20:15 8:15 Dundalk
Lady Kai
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
The jockey can gain compensation here after arguably not giving the horse the best of rides when failing to catch the leader last time out, going down by less than a length. The winner there has gone out and won his next race, so this one is worth giving another chance to off a 3 lb higher mark, with the first-time visor fitted (usually helps on breeding). Hopefully the jockey will not give the horse as much ground to make up this time around.
15:00 3:00 Cheltenham
Mister Coffey
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
Five of the last ten winners of this race came here after placing over a shorter trip at the November Cheltenham meeting. That 50% strike rate is a huge positive for the only such candidate this year, Mister Coffey. That second-place finish last time out had everything you'd want to see for this race. The horse was staying on well despite the trip being way too short. Course form is obviously a major positive here, and Busselton, who’s the favorite, has yet to place in six races at the course.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Cheltenham
Can You Call
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@11.00
Win
300
Can You Call was a very decent third in a similar race here last time out. There's every chance he can progress again and go even closer. In the race before that he was stone last and beaten 33 lengths. He is 2 lb higher now (and a pound out of the handicap), but I like the jockey switch to Ben Jones. Now that the horse has taken a step in the right direction, he could well build on that effort last time out. He's a 10-year-old in this veterans' race, and that's usually a positive too.
1 member found this comment useful
13:50 1:50 Cheltenham
King Turgeon
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@6.50
Lose
-50
King Turgeon is an each-way bet to nothing for me here at 11/2 in this 9-runner race with 3 places paid. The horse has won 2 of his 3 races here. The latest of those wins was over C&D when powering clear up the hill to win off a 3 lb lower mark than he races off here. He lost his form last season after that, but the wind-op in the close season looks to have got the horse back, judged on a promising return at Aintree last time out on seasonal debut where he finished 6th of 17. That looks a good prep for this, which would have been the main aim anyway.
1 member found this comment useful
13:15 1:15 Cheltenham
Leloopa
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@6.00
Lose
-50
This last-time-out C&D winner (in good style) has to be the bet of the day for me at 5/1 to defy the 6 lb rise in the handicap. The conditional jockey on board keeps the ride, and he's got a very impressive record here: 3 wins and 7 places from just 12 rides. There are two real keys to the horse following up that win here. The first is that the LTO win was the first after a wind op, which has clearly improved the horse. The second is that the time of that race on good-to-soft was very good compared with previous runnings of the race on better ground.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal100
11 December 2025
15:30 3:25 Warwick
Sassella Storm
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@26.00
Lose
-50
I like the breeding of this one, whose sire has produced horses of generally better ability than that of the favourite (Tandy's Bridge). So the 25/1 could be the each-way value in the race. It's the first time the in-form trainer has booked Dylan Johnston, which is another positive for me. He has a decent record in bumpers and a decent record at the course, with a winner and four places from just six rides. The horse is related to several decent winners and the trainer is flying, so there's a lot to like.
14:50 2:50 Punchestown
Sarahs Express
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@13.00
Lose
-50
This horse won a PTP at this trip and has clearly been racing over too short a trip in her two runs under rules so far. The fifth of 21 last time out was over a mile shorter when she wasn't placed in the race and was never nearer. Those are the sort of comments associated with horses that are being lined up for a big run in a handicap over the correct trip, and it's blindingly obvious that she needs this trip.
13:45 1:45 Newcastle
Byron Hill
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@17.00
Lose
-50
This is the first time the trainer has booked this excellent 5 lb claiming apprentice, and he's something of a course specialist this year, having won 4 of his 10 rides here. The piece of form that gives this horse a strong chance here is the 3rd of 10 at Carlisle just over a year ago, when he was ahead of Moon Chime, which has since won off a mark over 20 lb higher than Byron Hill races off here. He's been out of sorts mostly since then after a spell over jumps and an AW flat run, but he's had a little break now, and I'm hopeful this new jockey can rekindle him.
Subtotal-150
10 December 2025
20:30 8:30 Kempton
Southbank
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@7.50
Void
0
This one very much looks like an each-way bet to nothing. Charles Bishop is back on board, and he won the only other time he rode the horse, which was a victory over C&D just two starts ago. He's 3 lb higher now but was well on top at the finish, and there's no reason he can't win off this higher mark. The second, third, and fourth have all run well since.
17:45 5:45 Dundalk
Kc Bear
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTETip made at odds of 9.50 on 09/12 at 17:580.10 deduction for Stone Bear@10.00 withdrawn at 11:090.00 deduction for Lilo Pelekai @51.000 withdrawn at 11:090.00 deduction for Klein Blue @11.000 withdrawn at 11:09R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 8.50 x (1-0.1) = 8.65
@8.65
Win
382
Noel Meade doesn't book Colin Keane unless he has a well-handicapped horse on his hands. That looks to be the case here after the horse was an excellent third for an apprentice last time out when held up and making up stacks of ground. Clearly the horse will have been targeted with handicaps in mind, and he should improve again off this 1 lb higher mark now that he's pro ridden.
Subtotal382
09 December 2025
19:00 7:00 Newcastle
Yellow Lemons
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@11.00
Lose
-50
The trainer has had 2 winners and a further 3 seconds (all beaten less than a length) in his last 12 runners. I like the jockey switch here to one who has been riding this course well lately. The horse hasn't been beaten far in two of her last three runs, which were all over C&D and off the same mark. The trainer is in slightly better form now, and with the different jockey, I think she can go even closer this time. The 10/1 rates as the E/W value in the race.
1 member found this comment useful
15:33 3:33 Uttoxeter
Volakes
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@11.00
Lose
-50
This horse raced at a decent level on the Flat for Haggas, and that suggests this mark of 102 could underestimate her now that she gets the step up in trip, which looks certain to suit. She was outpaced late on last time out but showed enough to suggest that this extra half mile should be ideal. The trainer is in good form, and he's one of the best at placing his horses well.
1 member found this comment useful
14:50 2:50 Punchestown
Sarahs Express
Daily Racing
25 EW
@17.00
Void
0
This horse won a PTP at this trip and has clearly been racing over too short a trip in her two runs under rules so far. The fifth of 21 last time out was over a mile shorter when she wasn't placed in the race and was never nearer. Those are the sort of comments associated with horses that are being lined up for a big run in a handicap over the correct trip, and it's blindingly obvious that she needs this trip.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
08 December 2025
14:15 2:15 Musselburgh
Cage Rattler
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@17.00
Lose
-50
If you look at this horse's staying-on effort at this course over a shorter trip on his last start, it's easy to make a case for him here at a very generous 16/1. The same jockey is booked, and he's good value for his 7 lb claim. That was his first time on the horse, which was a step up on previous efforts, and the handicapper has even dropped him 2 lb, so there are a lot of positives.
1 member found this comment useful
12:07 12:07 Lingfield
Towerlands
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@6.00
Win
250
This horse has a 6 lb rise to defy after winning in great fashion last time out, which was his first run in an AW handicap. That was something of a breakthrough run. For me, the horse gets a major jockey upgrade now, so there are certainly plenty of reasons why he could well win off this higher mark. He has a nice progressive profile, and Rossa Ryan has a 25% strike rate at the course.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal200
07 December 2025
13:15 1:15 Huntingdon
Haas Boy
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@9.00
Win
15
This one looks good value to complete the hat-trick under Harry Cobden here. He won on his only previous run over C&D, which was a maiden hurdle. Crucially, the second and third from that race have both won since off effectively higher marks than Haas Boy races off here. That was on soft ground too, and despite the horse winning on good ground last time out, I think this ground is his optimal.
1 member found this comment useful
12:20 12:20 Kelso
Glen Road
Daily Racing
25 EWNBNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 6.00 used instead of 5.50 takenBOG
@6.00
Win
150
The jockey on board this one is one of the most improved around, for my money, and he's won 3 of his 6 rides on the horse. The win last time out suggested there could be a lot more to come, especially since he's had a wind op, and that looks to have improved the 6yo. That was on soft ground, and the runner-up won his next race too. He looks sure to run his race and give the front two in the market plenty to think about.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal165
06 December 2025
19:00 7:00 Wolverhampton
Apache Eagle
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Lose
-50
The jockey booked for this one actually has much better stats over these marathon trips than the shorter ones, and he's been placed in 2 of his 3 rides for the stable. The horse itself has shaped as though an extreme trip is required, and that is also borne out in breeding, since progeny of New Approach have won three times over C&D from just 13 races. He should be staying on at the end while many of his rivals' stamina will be running out.
1 member found this comment useful
16:30 4:30 Wolverhampton
Dragon God
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@12.00
Lose
-50
I made a note of this one when looking at the form last night, with a view that it was the most unexposed horse and any market support could be significant. The money has come now, and that was clearly required if the trainer thinks he has him on a good mark for his handicap debut. The horse has had a wind op and gets a first-time tongue tie too, which are likely to bring about improvement for this well-bred colt whose last two runs have hinted at ability anyway (though obviously being targeted for handicaps).
14:40 2:40 Aintree
Westerninthepark
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@10.00
Lose
-50
This horse arguably blew up a bit on its seasonal debut last time out when fading into fourth when sent off favourite, and will strip fitter here off this 1 lb lower mark. There's plenty of rain in the forecast, too, and this horse is going to appreciate softer ground more than most. Should probably be a couple of points shorter and looks the each-way value in the race to me.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Sandown
Glynn Brae
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
This 2nd favourite looks the value to upset the Skelton-trained favourite, who is making his seasonal debut and is a 9-year-old, so looks opposable to me. Glynn Brae, on the other hand, won on seasonal debut last time out and is only a 5-year-old. He showed a good attitude to win that race narrowly despite making a couple of mistakes late on. That was arguably due to rustiness, since he's generally been a good hurdler and could well be even better now that he's had that race. The same excellent 5 lb claiming conditional is booked for the ride once more.
1 member found this comment useful
13:20 1:20 Sandown
Absolutely Doyen
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@5.00
Void
0
I was on the runner-up in the race that this one won last time out with plenty in hand. The pair of them were backed off the boards, and I suspect that form is going to be well worth following. Absolutely Doyen obviously has this higher handicap mark to contend with now, and he's still at the bottom end of the handicap. He's only a 5yo, so will be progressing quickly, and the stable won this race last year.
1 member found this comment useful
13:04 1:04 Chepstow
Champagne Chic
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@9.00
Lose
-50
The trainer has hit form in the last week or so, and this one will strip fitter after the seasonal debut run when his horses weren't going as well. The horse has an unexposed and progressive profile and looks just the type for this race. His win in a novice hurdle at the start of the year would put this horse easily around 5 or 6 lb ahead of his current mark, in my eyes, and he won't mind any further rain.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-250
05 December 2025
19:15 7:15 Newcastle
Sir Maxi
Daily Racing
25 EW
@51.00
Lose
-50
These amateur jockey races aren't ones for betting at the top end of the market usually. At the other end of the market is this one, which is well handicapped on the pick of his form. He has a jockey booking who has posted very good stats in her handful of rides so far (the same can't be said about many of the other jockeys). The horse pulled away his chance last time out for an apprentice, and if this jockey can settle the horse, then he's 8 lb lower than his last winning mark, which was as recent as earlier this year. I also like the switch to cheekpieces, which saw the horse run well at the start of his career (he was 2nd off 79 with them on and is racing here off 51).
17:45 5:45 Newcastle
Teardrops
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.75
Win
137
This horse was well supported before winning with stacks in hand last time out with this first-time headgear combo. The headgear could well have done the trick, and despite the 7 lb rise, he showed enough there to suggest he can defy it. One of the reasons to think he can go in again is that the time recorded in that win was very good considering how easy it was, so he clearly could have gone a lot quicker if pushed.
14:33 2:33 Exeter
Jack Hoola
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
If you watch a replay of this horse's last win, then you'd have to say that the first-time application of blinkers here is a no-brainer and could bring about plenty of improvement. The horse travels well in his races and then starts looking around, so this is a clear example of where they should be beneficial. He's clearly race-fit after that run, and I expect him to get the better of Chedingtons Guest.
12:35 12:35 Sandown
Enziya
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@21.00
Lose
-50
The trainer has been posting some decent stats since running under rules, and it's jumping out that the booking of Sean Bowen on this one could be significant since he's never used him before. The horse was pitched into Listed hurdle company last time out after running on the AW. That was clearly above his level, but he's had a wind op now and gets one of the best around in the saddle. So 20/1 in a 9-runner race with the first 3 being paid looks the play. The horse won off 66 on the flat, and that translates to a 100+ hurdles horse, so that could well be good enough to see him figure here.
Subtotal-13
04 December 2025
20:30 8:30 Chelmsford City
Newfire
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@51.00
Lose
-50
This horse is 50/1, and yet there are pieces of form from as recently as last year that suggest she's well handicapped here. Furthermore, it's just her second start for a stable that does well with horses brought in. The shrewd trainer has upgraded his jockey to one he relies on after that debut run for the stable last time out. Those runs last year were a win of 54 and a neck second off 60. Both those runs have been franked by some horses since, too. The horse is down to 50 now, and this first visit to the track could also bring improvement, since the horse's sire has progeny with an impressive 18 wins from just 70 runners here.
18:00 6:00 Chelmsford City
Cherry Cobbler
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.00
Lose
-50
The first-time booking of Rossa Ryan catches the eye here, since he has a superb record this year for this stable, who use him sparingly. The horse's win in a maiden at the start of the year has a few clues that he's going to be nearer an 80-rated horse than the 76 at which he races here. He'll strip fitter after the seasonal-debut placed effort last time out and looks the one to beat.
Subtotal-100
03 December 2025
19:40 7:40 Kempton
Buccabay
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@11.00
Win
300
I was on this one last time out when the jockey would have the race back again if he could. Not much went right, and the jockey had plenty of horse underneath him when finding trouble in running. Hopefully redemption is on the cards here off this 1 lb lower mark. On that evidence, he has the ability to win off this mark. The 5yo runs off 78 now but has won twice off marks in the mid-80s, and he went down by just a neck here off 82 in the past.
18:10 6:10 Kempton
Clouds Hill
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@4.33
Lose
-50
If you piece together all the evidence from this horse's three runs, you'd have to say that he could have a few pounds in hand of this mark. He was sent off 5/4f before winning on his AW debut for this excellent 5 lb claiming apprentice last time out, and there could be more to come now he's sent handicapping.
14:38 2:38 Haydock
Jericoacoara
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@9.50
Void
0
Micky Hammond's runners have hit a real purple patch lately and this one can build on a close-up 5th last time out when his horses weren't in as good form. He made a mess of the last that day and was possibly tiring over that longer trip, so the drop back in trip looks ideal. Brian Hughes is booked again and the horse has been dropped a pound too.
Subtotal250
02 December 2025
11:30 11:30 Lingfield
My Boy Jack
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@26.00
Lose
-50
This horse has been placed in both his runs over C&D. The latest of those was exactly a year ago for this apprentice when 2nd off a 5 lb higher mark than he races off here. He's still only a 6 yo, and the jockey clearly has had another year of race riding, so I don't see why the horse can't be competitive off this lower mark. The 25/1 certainly looks more than generous.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
01 December 2025
19:30 7:30 Wolverhampton
Desert Footsteps
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@21.00
Lose
-50
If you take a closer look at this horse's unplaced effort at this course last time out, it seems fairly evident that this drop back in trip is sure to suit. She was going well and leading the field at around this distance in that race before she weakened quickly. The first-time booking of Harry Davies also catches the eye, and she's been dropped 3 lb, so is now 1 lb lower than the mark she won off for her sole win to date.
Subtotal-50
25 November 2025
13:35 1:35 Lingfield
Marsh Benham
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@26.00
Lose
-50
This horse has had 3 runs over 6 furlongs on the AW and been placed each time off 62 when pro ridden. But he might well need this longer trip these days since his last 4 wins have been at this trip. He's up to 67 now, but the apprentice is posting some terrific stats (especially on the AW), and he takes that extra 5lb off. The trainer is in decent form too, and clearly, on that evidence, the horse should be a lot shorter than 25/1 with the majority of the rest of the field not looking particularly well handicapped.
12:30 12:30 Lingfield
Blue Eclipse
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@67.00
Lose
-50
This trainer/jockey combo are no strangers to landing the odds with a big-priced winner on the AW, and this lightly raced one appears to have been completely overlooked in the market. He's well-bred and gets in here off bottom weight with a first-time tongue tie. If the tongue tie does the trick, then we know the horse has ability since he's already won a race in his short career when he showed a good attitude to get the better of a horse that's since won 3 times. That was even on the same surface, and that horse is rated 73 now, so this mark of 67 would strongly suggest he's way overpriced here, with the tongue tie potentially proving to be a crucial factor.
Subtotal-100
24 November 2025
15:40 3:40 Kempton
Across Earth
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.50
Lose
-50
Considering the ground wasn't bad and all 12 horses finished in the race won by Across Earth last time out, I think you can upgrade that 4 length win from the 2nd favourite since there was a yawning 17 length gap to the favourite in third. This all suggests he could well defy this higher mark of 110 especially since he won off 74 on the flat and was rated as high as 80. The jockey is certainly one of the better ones in this Conditionals race and it's going to be an advantage that he was on board for that win last time out.
1 member found this comment useful
15:25 3:25 Newcastle
Havachoc
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@12.00
Lose
-50
Whenever Luke Morris is on a hot favourite, there's nearly always value to be had elsewhere in my opinion, especially when it's his first time on the horse. This one looks the type to run well at a price, with the first-time booking of Warren Fentiman, who is excellent value for his 5lb claim. The 4th on a first run on the AW was a more promising effort (his 2nd run since a wind op), and he was ridden that day by another jockey that I don't rate as highly as this one, so he could build on that here with Fentiman booked.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
23 November 2025
15:46 3:46 Exeter
Square Du Roule
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@5.50
Win
135
This horse is a maiden after 15 runs but has been runner up off similar marks in 3 of his last 4 runs. The real key to him shedding his maiden tag though is the jockey. The regular jockey has just a 4% strike rate in hurdles over the last year so it's significant that he's now replaced by Harry Cobden for the first time who operates at a 20% strike rate over the same period. I think he's probably realised that the horse needs to be produced as late as possible and that could make all the difference.
Subtotal135
22 November 2025
19:40 7:40 Newcastle
Invincible Shadow
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@29.00
Lose
-50
This is the rank outsider at 33/1 but the last time this trainer/jockey had a runner here, it romped home at 66/1 and this one could well surprise too. The horse was leading at this trip before fading late on last time out and the drop back in trip looks ideal. He is totally unexposed and the sire has produced some decent stats with his geldings at the track so at this price, I'm prepared to give him a small win only bet in the hope he pops up at a price.
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18:10 6:10 Newcastle
Dandy Magic
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 7.00 used instead of 5.00 takenBOG
@7.00
Win
300
This horse is very easy to make a case for at 4/1 if you watch a replay of her run over C&D last time out when not beaten far to finish 5th despite meeting plenty of trouble in running. The jockey had a lot of horse underneath her when her run got checked a couple of times, and this could be very much a compensation mission for her. The horse was 9/2 that day and has been dropped a pound, and this 4/1 looks on the generous side to me.
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15:45 3:45 Ascot
Doctor Midas
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Win
20
Henrietta's horses nearly always come on for a run, and this one won't have to improve much on his third place last time out. He's been dropped a generous-looking 2lb too. The 2nd in a maiden hurdle to Bold Recruit when badly hampered would put him conservatively 7lb+ well in here. He can give the hot favourite a run for his money since I would question the quality of what that horse has beaten.
14:25 2:25 Haydock
Ma Shantou
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.50
Lose
-50
This horse was backed off the board before hacking up at Cheltenham last time out and can go in again despite the 9lb rise in the handicap. The horse had stacks in hand there and as a result races off 138 here today but he was good enough to run the Albert Bartlett at the Festival last year where he finished a very respectable 7th of 20 where there were several horse behind him that are better than the 138 he races off here. Trainer form is a slight worry, but if he arrives in the same form as that win 4 weeks ago, he's clearly the one they all have to beat.
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12:55 12:55 Ascot
Bobbi With An I
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@5.50
Lose
-50
This bottom weight hails from a trainer/jockey combo that can do little wrong at the moment. The 6-year-old looks to have a huge chance here. The horse will strip fitter now after not being beaten far on seasonal debut last time out, and Brendan Powell takes over in the saddle now, who is 1 from 1 on her. The extra trip looks sure to suit, and the trainer is placing his horses superbly this season, so the 9/2 looks decent value.
Subtotal170
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