JamPizza
I'm a sports and betting enthusiast and love trying to solve the puzzle of big handicaps both on the flat and over the jumps. The majority of my tips are double figure prices and I rarely back the favourites. I'm always looking for value and try to post the tips the evening before to get the early prices. Twitter @JamPizza
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JamPizza's Tips History
06 December 2025
19:00 7:00 Wolverhampton
Apache Eagle
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Lose
-50
The jockey booked for this one actually has much better stats over these marathon trips than the shorter ones, and he's been placed in 2 of his 3 rides for the stable. The horse itself has shaped as though an extreme trip is required, and that is also borne out in breeding, since progeny of New Approach have won three times over C&D from just 13 races. He should be staying on at the end while many of his rivals' stamina will be running out.
1 member found this comment useful
16:30 4:30 Wolverhampton
Dragon God
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@12.00
Lose
-50
I made a note of this one when looking at the form last night, with a view that it was the most unexposed horse and any market support could be significant. The money has come now, and that was clearly required if the trainer thinks he has him on a good mark for his handicap debut. The horse has had a wind op and gets a first-time tongue tie too, which are likely to bring about improvement for this well-bred colt whose last two runs have hinted at ability anyway (though obviously being targeted for handicaps).
14:40 2:40 Aintree
Westerninthepark
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@10.00
Lose
-50
This horse arguably blew up a bit on its seasonal debut last time out when fading into fourth when sent off favourite, and will strip fitter here off this 1 lb lower mark. There's plenty of rain in the forecast, too, and this horse is going to appreciate softer ground more than most. Should probably be a couple of points shorter and looks the each-way value in the race to me.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Sandown
Glynn Brae
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
This 2nd favourite looks the value to upset the Skelton-trained favourite, who is making his seasonal debut and is a 9-year-old, so looks opposable to me. Glynn Brae, on the other hand, won on seasonal debut last time out and is only a 5-year-old. He showed a good attitude to win that race narrowly despite making a couple of mistakes late on. That was arguably due to rustiness, since he's generally been a good hurdler and could well be even better now that he's had that race. The same excellent 5 lb claiming conditional is booked for the ride once more.
1 member found this comment useful
13:20 1:20 Sandown
Absolutely Doyen
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@5.00
Void
0
I was on the runner-up in the race that this one won last time out with plenty in hand. The pair of them were backed off the boards, and I suspect that form is going to be well worth following. Absolutely Doyen obviously has this higher handicap mark to contend with now, and he's still at the bottom end of the handicap. He's only a 5yo, so will be progressing quickly, and the stable won this race last year.
1 member found this comment useful
13:04 1:04 Chepstow
Champagne Chic
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@9.00
Lose
-50
The trainer has hit form in the last week or so, and this one will strip fitter after the seasonal debut run when his horses weren't going as well. The horse has an unexposed and progressive profile and looks just the type for this race. His win in a novice hurdle at the start of the year would put this horse easily around 5 or 6 lb ahead of his current mark, in my eyes, and he won't mind any further rain.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-250
05 December 2025
19:15 7:15 Newcastle
Sir Maxi
Daily Racing
25 EW
@51.00
Lose
-50
These amateur jockey races aren't ones for betting at the top end of the market usually. At the other end of the market is this one, which is well handicapped on the pick of his form. He has a jockey booking who has posted very good stats in her handful of rides so far (the same can't be said about many of the other jockeys). The horse pulled away his chance last time out for an apprentice, and if this jockey can settle the horse, then he's 8 lb lower than his last winning mark, which was as recent as earlier this year. I also like the switch to cheekpieces, which saw the horse run well at the start of his career (he was 2nd off 79 with them on and is racing here off 51).
17:45 5:45 Newcastle
Teardrops
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.75
Win
137
This horse was well supported before winning with stacks in hand last time out with this first-time headgear combo. The headgear could well have done the trick, and despite the 7 lb rise, he showed enough there to suggest he can defy it. One of the reasons to think he can go in again is that the time recorded in that win was very good considering how easy it was, so he clearly could have gone a lot quicker if pushed.
14:33 2:33 Exeter
Jack Hoola
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
If you watch a replay of this horse's last win, then you'd have to say that the first-time application of blinkers here is a no-brainer and could bring about plenty of improvement. The horse travels well in his races and then starts looking around, so this is a clear example of where they should be beneficial. He's clearly race-fit after that run, and I expect him to get the better of Chedingtons Guest.
12:35 12:35 Sandown
Enziya
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@21.00
Lose
-50
The trainer has been posting some decent stats since running under rules, and it's jumping out that the booking of Sean Bowen on this one could be significant since he's never used him before. The horse was pitched into Listed hurdle company last time out after running on the AW. That was clearly above his level, but he's had a wind op now and gets one of the best around in the saddle. So 20/1 in a 9-runner race with the first 3 being paid looks the play. The horse won off 66 on the flat, and that translates to a 100+ hurdles horse, so that could well be good enough to see him figure here.
Subtotal-13
04 December 2025
20:30 8:30 Chelmsford City
Newfire
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@51.00
Lose
-50
This horse is 50/1, and yet there are pieces of form from as recently as last year that suggest she's well handicapped here. Furthermore, it's just her second start for a stable that does well with horses brought in. The shrewd trainer has upgraded his jockey to one he relies on after that debut run for the stable last time out. Those runs last year were a win of 54 and a neck second off 60. Both those runs have been franked by some horses since, too. The horse is down to 50 now, and this first visit to the track could also bring improvement, since the horse's sire has progeny with an impressive 18 wins from just 70 runners here.
18:00 6:00 Chelmsford City
Cherry Cobbler
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.00
Lose
-50
The first-time booking of Rossa Ryan catches the eye here, since he has a superb record this year for this stable, who use him sparingly. The horse's win in a maiden at the start of the year has a few clues that he's going to be nearer an 80-rated horse than the 76 at which he races here. He'll strip fitter after the seasonal-debut placed effort last time out and looks the one to beat.
Subtotal-100
03 December 2025
19:40 7:40 Kempton
Buccabay
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@11.00
Win
300
I was on this one last time out when the jockey would have the race back again if he could. Not much went right, and the jockey had plenty of horse underneath him when finding trouble in running. Hopefully redemption is on the cards here off this 1 lb lower mark. On that evidence, he has the ability to win off this mark. The 5yo runs off 78 now but has won twice off marks in the mid-80s, and he went down by just a neck here off 82 in the past.
18:10 6:10 Kempton
Clouds Hill
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@4.33
Lose
-50
If you piece together all the evidence from this horse's three runs, you'd have to say that he could have a few pounds in hand of this mark. He was sent off 5/4f before winning on his AW debut for this excellent 5 lb claiming apprentice last time out, and there could be more to come now he's sent handicapping.
14:38 2:38 Haydock
Jericoacoara
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@9.50
Void
0
Micky Hammond's runners have hit a real purple patch lately and this one can build on a close-up 5th last time out when his horses weren't in as good form. He made a mess of the last that day and was possibly tiring over that longer trip, so the drop back in trip looks ideal. Brian Hughes is booked again and the horse has been dropped a pound too.
Subtotal250
02 December 2025
11:30 11:30 Lingfield
My Boy Jack
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@26.00
Lose
-50
This horse has been placed in both his runs over C&D. The latest of those was exactly a year ago for this apprentice when 2nd off a 5 lb higher mark than he races off here. He's still only a 6 yo, and the jockey clearly has had another year of race riding, so I don't see why the horse can't be competitive off this lower mark. The 25/1 certainly looks more than generous.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
01 December 2025
19:30 7:30 Wolverhampton
Desert Footsteps
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@21.00
Lose
-50
If you take a closer look at this horse's unplaced effort at this course last time out, it seems fairly evident that this drop back in trip is sure to suit. She was going well and leading the field at around this distance in that race before she weakened quickly. The first-time booking of Harry Davies also catches the eye, and she's been dropped 3 lb, so is now 1 lb lower than the mark she won off for her sole win to date.
Subtotal-50
25 November 2025
13:35 1:35 Lingfield
Marsh Benham
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@26.00
Lose
-50
This horse has had 3 runs over 6 furlongs on the AW and been placed each time off 62 when pro ridden. But he might well need this longer trip these days since his last 4 wins have been at this trip. He's up to 67 now, but the apprentice is posting some terrific stats (especially on the AW), and he takes that extra 5lb off. The trainer is in decent form too, and clearly, on that evidence, the horse should be a lot shorter than 25/1 with the majority of the rest of the field not looking particularly well handicapped.
12:30 12:30 Lingfield
Blue Eclipse
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@67.00
Lose
-50
This trainer/jockey combo are no strangers to landing the odds with a big-priced winner on the AW, and this lightly raced one appears to have been completely overlooked in the market. He's well-bred and gets in here off bottom weight with a first-time tongue tie. If the tongue tie does the trick, then we know the horse has ability since he's already won a race in his short career when he showed a good attitude to get the better of a horse that's since won 3 times. That was even on the same surface, and that horse is rated 73 now, so this mark of 67 would strongly suggest he's way overpriced here, with the tongue tie potentially proving to be a crucial factor.
Subtotal-100
24 November 2025
15:40 3:40 Kempton
Across Earth
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.50
Lose
-50
Considering the ground wasn't bad and all 12 horses finished in the race won by Across Earth last time out, I think you can upgrade that 4 length win from the 2nd favourite since there was a yawning 17 length gap to the favourite in third. This all suggests he could well defy this higher mark of 110 especially since he won off 74 on the flat and was rated as high as 80. The jockey is certainly one of the better ones in this Conditionals race and it's going to be an advantage that he was on board for that win last time out.
1 member found this comment useful
15:25 3:25 Newcastle
Havachoc
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@12.00
Lose
-50
Whenever Luke Morris is on a hot favourite, there's nearly always value to be had elsewhere in my opinion, especially when it's his first time on the horse. This one looks the type to run well at a price, with the first-time booking of Warren Fentiman, who is excellent value for his 5lb claim. The 4th on a first run on the AW was a more promising effort (his 2nd run since a wind op), and he was ridden that day by another jockey that I don't rate as highly as this one, so he could build on that here with Fentiman booked.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
23 November 2025
15:46 3:46 Exeter
Square Du Roule
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@5.50
Win
135
This horse is a maiden after 15 runs but has been runner up off similar marks in 3 of his last 4 runs. The real key to him shedding his maiden tag though is the jockey. The regular jockey has just a 4% strike rate in hurdles over the last year so it's significant that he's now replaced by Harry Cobden for the first time who operates at a 20% strike rate over the same period. I think he's probably realised that the horse needs to be produced as late as possible and that could make all the difference.
Subtotal135
22 November 2025
19:40 7:40 Newcastle
Invincible Shadow
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@29.00
Lose
-50
This is the rank outsider at 33/1 but the last time this trainer/jockey had a runner here, it romped home at 66/1 and this one could well surprise too. The horse was leading at this trip before fading late on last time out and the drop back in trip looks ideal. He is totally unexposed and the sire has produced some decent stats with his geldings at the track so at this price, I'm prepared to give him a small win only bet in the hope he pops up at a price.
1 member found this comment useful
18:10 6:10 Newcastle
Dandy Magic
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 7.00 used instead of 5.00 takenBOG
@7.00
Win
300
This horse is very easy to make a case for at 4/1 if you watch a replay of her run over C&D last time out when not beaten far to finish 5th despite meeting plenty of trouble in running. The jockey had a lot of horse underneath her when her run got checked a couple of times, and this could be very much a compensation mission for her. The horse was 9/2 that day and has been dropped a pound, and this 4/1 looks on the generous side to me.
1 member found this comment useful
15:45 3:45 Ascot
Doctor Midas
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Win
20
Henrietta's horses nearly always come on for a run, and this one won't have to improve much on his third place last time out. He's been dropped a generous-looking 2lb too. The 2nd in a maiden hurdle to Bold Recruit when badly hampered would put him conservatively 7lb+ well in here. He can give the hot favourite a run for his money since I would question the quality of what that horse has beaten.
14:25 2:25 Haydock
Ma Shantou
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.50
Lose
-50
This horse was backed off the board before hacking up at Cheltenham last time out and can go in again despite the 9lb rise in the handicap. The horse had stacks in hand there and as a result races off 138 here today but he was good enough to run the Albert Bartlett at the Festival last year where he finished a very respectable 7th of 20 where there were several horse behind him that are better than the 138 he races off here. Trainer form is a slight worry, but if he arrives in the same form as that win 4 weeks ago, he's clearly the one they all have to beat.
1 member found this comment useful
12:55 12:55 Ascot
Bobbi With An I
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@5.50
Lose
-50
This bottom weight hails from a trainer/jockey combo that can do little wrong at the moment. The 6-year-old looks to have a huge chance here. The horse will strip fitter now after not being beaten far on seasonal debut last time out, and Brendan Powell takes over in the saddle now, who is 1 from 1 on her. The extra trip looks sure to suit, and the trainer is placing his horses superbly this season, so the 9/2 looks decent value.
Subtotal170
21 November 2025
15:19 3:19 Chepstow
Mumbles
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@12.00
Win
30
Reinado is the 2/5 favourite here and is technically well in on his easy win last time out. But he fell when sent off at 16/1 off the same mark in the race prior to that and is surely no value today, especially after such a short gap since that win on heavy ground. This 3rd fav looks the type that could pop up if the favourite faltered. He's a very easy course winner where the well-beaten 2nd and 4th have won since, and he's still only a 7yo, so looks to hold every chance.
14:09 2:09 Chepstow
Lundi Noir
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.25
Lose
-50
The form of this horse's third last time out has been franked, and that was his seasonal debut, so he will strip fitter today over the same C&D. That was only the horse's third run, so he'll be improving at a quicker rate than the rest here. On that evidence, he's clearly on a winning mark here. Prior to that, he was a very easy winner on debut, and this looks a very winnable race.
Subtotal-20
20 November 2025
18:30 6:30 Southwell
Running Queen
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Lose
-50
I can't let this Kingman filly go unbacked at 25/1 since she's thrown in on the pick of her 2yo form. She was placed in a Listed race, for example, when beaten less than 2 lengths, and she had a stack of 85-90 rated horses behind her there. She races here off 82 with a very useful apprentice taking off a further 5lb. She needs to learn to settle better, but hopefully, the jockey switch will help, and the trainer has had 6 places from his last 7 runners, so hopefully, she can show her true ability here.
17:45 5:45 Newcastle
Lethal Nymph
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@5.50
Lose
-50
This horse was a good winner off 80 last time out, and his only other run over C&D was a close-up placed effort off 89. He's been raised to 84 now for that win, but the excellent Warren Fentiman takes over in the saddle now with his valuable 5lb claim. Both trainer and jockey are in decent form, so you'd have to say that, on balance, the 9/2 is a touch too big now that the horse has hit the winning trail once more.
17:00 5:00 Southwell
R P Mcmurphy
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-50
The handicap debut 3rd over C&D last time out was a much-improved effort, and he can go even closer now that he'll strip fitter since that run was after 4 months off the course. He was held up and not given a particularly hard ride, so there could be much more to come here off the same mark. There are a couple of horses from that race that have franked that form too.
15:05 3:05 Lingfield
Ghaiyyath Park
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
This trainer and owner combo are really profitable to follow, and their string of horses they have together are usually well above the mark that this unexposed one races off here. She's likely to put in an all-or-nothing performance, and the 9/1 appeals on the win market in the hope it's the former. The stable is flying with 4 of their last 8 winning, and this horse races for just the 2nd time for him here.
14:30 2:30 Lingfield
Shuwari
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.25
Lose
-50
Sky Safari is the hot fav here but is stepping out of handicap company for the first time (was initially rated 73) and will find things much tougher here against a proven multiple Listed winner in Shuwari. Even on official figures Sky Safari has a pound to find on Shuwari and in some ways it's surprising that they aren't the other way around in the betting. The first time booking of Rossa Ryan is another positive for me, and it's all about value at the end of the day where it's clear which of the two I'd rather be with.
Subtotal-250
19 November 2025
16:05 4:05 Kempton
Atmosphere
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@6.00
Lose
-50
The first-time visor did the trick when this horse won over C&D last time out, and the 3lb rise is more than offset by Toby Moore's 7lb claim. He's also got a win and a place at the course in these early days of his career. The runner-up in that race has been placed since, and the 3rd and 6th have both won to frank the form. The 5/1 looks way too big for such an in-form horse with the jockey's potentially crucial 7lb claim, and he looks the value to me.
15:31 3:31 Hexham
Tea Boy
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.50
Void
0
Tea Boy's only run so far was an excellent 2nd over C&D last year in a race where the winner had turned out to be fairly decent. This 5yo could therefore be potentially a cut above these (mainly) 4yos, and the trainer does very well with his small string of horses. The winner of that race over C&D has subsequently beaten a string of horses rated around 115 in a novice hurdle, and that level of form could easily be good enough to win this.
Subtotal-50
18 November 2025
15:45 3:45 Newcastle
Arcimboldo
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@15.00
Win
45
This one has shown improved form in 2 all-weather runs since switching stables. He's finished 2nd and 3rd in those 2 runs (the 3rd was over C&D), and in both runs, he's been outpaced before staying on well and gaining on the leaders. It therefore looks like a really clever move to race the horse back here in a big field (those 2 runs were in small fields). The pace will therefore be stronger now, and that will play to his strengths, so expect to see him picking horses off late on (should go big prices in running too).
1 member found this comment useful
15:05 3:05 Limerick
Queen Kulina
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@11.00
Lose
-50
The step up to around this trip last time out did the trick, with the horse showing improved form to place there when beaten less than 2 lengths and finishing the race well. This slightly longer trip and softer ground look ideal. The trainer has switched to an apprentice that takes 7lb off and has been riding well enough to suggest he's good value for that claim. The horse races off the same mark and has first-time cheekpieces. Big chance.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-5
17 November 2025
18:10 6:10 Newcastle
Irish Nectar
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@10.00
Lose
-50
This horse makes his debut for a new stable here that does well with their handicappers. They've shrewdly booked William Carver for the ride, who has a 22% strike rate around here. This is the horse's AW debut, and the last 3 runs on turf have been very much a step in the right direction, having raced fairly poorly in the races prior to those. He's running off an attractive mark of 79, having raced off marks in the 80s in the whole of last year (winning one). That win last year was at around this time of year, and he looks decent value to me.
1 member found this comment useful
13:40 1:40 Leicester
Arctic Saint
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@6.00
Lose
-50
This race really isn't going to take much winning at all. Having been through the form of the 7 runners, I had it between this one and another 5/1 shot, Martalmix'Jac. Arctic Saint gets the nod though, and 5/1 is bigger than I expected for such a weak race. The horse's only previous run over C&D was when placed off a 2lb higher mark for a jockey that hasn't ridden a hurdles winner this year. The jockey on board now has much better stats, and it should be all systems go now on the horse's second start since a wind op.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
16 November 2025
15:30 3:30 Cheltenham
Serious Challenge
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@9.00
Lose
-50
Serious Challenge was placed at Listed class on the flat when rated around 100, and that suggests the 5-year-old could well have the class to win this off 127 and towards the bottom of the handicap. Arguably, his crucial hurdles form was a win on heavy from Bowensonfire, which subsequently won off 123. Serious Challenge hammered him in that race despite him being heavy odds-on, and he clearly loved the heavy ground, so there's a lot to like about his chances here.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
15 November 2025
16:00 4:00 Cheltenham
Celestial Tune
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@5.00
Win
200
This horse's 2nd of 24 at Punchestown is the piece of form which I keep coming back to here since it's produced stacks of winners. There are several formlines (through Coutach in particular) which would suggest this horse could be pretty smart. There were plenty of horses behind this one from some of the bigger stables, and I think that is form worth following. She backed it up with a near 10-length win last time out, and the 4/1 looks more than fair.
2 members found this comment useful
15:30 3:30 Cheltenham
French Ship
Daily Racing
25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@6.50
Void
0
Only the top 3 in this are rated above 127 and 7 of the last 9 winners of this have fallen into that bracket. The other 2 rated above 127 haven't raced here before but French Ship was very impressive when winning here last time out. That was the first time that the excellent Ben Jones has ridden him and the real clue to his chances here is just how good the time was compared with previous runnings of that race. He's been hit with an 8lb rise but I think he's cracking value to go in again.
2 members found this comment useful
14:20 2:20 Cheltenham
Issar DAiry
Daily Racing
25 EWNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@51.00
Void
0
This horse is the rank outsider but there's plenty of clues that he's anything but. At this time last year, he was 2nd in a class 1 race at Ascot where the other 4 in the top 5 have all won since, the winner off a 6lb higher mark in his next race. Issar DAiry is 1lb lower now and that effort was as a 6yo so he's likely to have come on since then. He was running ok on seasonal debut last time out before blowing up but will strip fitter now and his only other run here was when only headed at the final fence before finishing 2nd. A top 4 finish doesn't seem at unlikley as the bookies would have us believe on this evidence.
2 members found this comment useful
Theatre Native
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Lose
-50
This horse won by 10 lengths on her only previous run at the track, and the trainer has booked no less than man of the moment Sean Bowen for the first time on the horse here. She's 10lb higher now but was keen in that race, so there could be much more to come in the hands of Bowen if he gets the horse settling better. She won on heavy ground over hurdles and looks sure to run her race, so the 11/1 looks decent each way value.
2 members found this comment useful
13:10 1:10 Cheltenham
Hung Jury
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@26.00
Win
750
Course form is so important here, especially when the ground is soft, with both the jockey in this amateur's race and the horse ticking those boxes. The jockey has a win and 2 places from his 6 rides here this year, and many of the other jockeys have barely even ridden here. The horse itself was a good winner of a Hunter's chase here and is bred to be suited by this softer ground, which will clearly play to his stamina strengths. I'd expect him to be picking them off late on to make the frame and outstay many of them.
2 members found this comment useful
12:35 12:35 Cheltenham
Secret Force
Daily Racing
25 EW
@6.50
Lose
-50
The David Pipe horse (Parchment) is being well touted here. But in these races with little form to go on, a closer look at the breeding often helps locate the potentially classier horses. This one is going to be very hard to keep out of the first 3, so rates a great e/w bet to nothing. He's an Irish raider that was hugely impressive on debut, and the trainer is showing some more positive signs recently after a quiet spell. There's also a little support for the 11/2, and he's going to give the front 2 in the market a lot to think about.
2 members found this comment useful
Subtotal850
14 November 2025
16:00 4:00 Cheltenham
French Emperor
Daily Racing
25 EWNBNOTETip made at odds of 11.00 on 12/11 at 16:220.00 deduction for Doctor Glide@201.00 withdrawn at 09:550.00 deduction for Amancio @34.000 withdrawn at 10:530.20 deduction for Fortune De Mer @5.000 withdrawn at 15:39R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 10.00 x (1-0.2) = 9.00
@9.00
Win
240
James Bowen rode this horse with stacks of confidence on seasonal debut last time out, where he travelled powerfully to put the race to bed from a well-fancied odds-on favourite that was technically a blot on the handicap. So that win can be upgraded, especially since it was after a long layoff. There could be much more to come now, and 5-year-olds have a good record in this race, so he looks a cracking each-way bet at 10/1.
1 member found this comment useful
15:30 3:30 Cheltenham
Fountains Blenhein
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@15.00
Void
0
This horse is the View Fly in the Ointment and the bottom line is that we don't yet have a clue how high his ceiling is after a 34-length victory last time out. There aren't many horses from that race to have raced since, so it's hard to gauge what he beat. But the time of the race, and a look back at the future ratings of previous winners of the race, would suggest he could be competitive here. He's going to have to improve again because much more is required here, but he simply looks overpriced on all known evidence.
1 member found this comment useful
13:45 1:45 Cheltenham
Lord Baddesley
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@6.00
Void
0
Not many horses have a first wind operation at the age of 10, but that's the case here. I'm taking the view that the wind operation has worked the oracle after the horse romped to an easy victory last time out. He can go in again off this 7lb higher mark. He's gone close off similar marks in the past, and the trainer is flying at the moment. His best races have been on left-handed tracks too, so the 5/1 looks a decent price in this veterans' race.
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13:20 1:20 Newcastle
North Parade
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@15.00
Lose
-50
This seems a crazy price for a horse that's 3 from 3 over C&D. The only negative I can see is that it's the horse's seasonal debut, but the trainer has her string fit and raring to go, as demonstrated by the fact that only one of her last 8 runners has failed to finish in the first 3. The 5lb claiming conditional that she's booked has been doing really well for her too, with 6 wins from their last 19 races where they've teamed up. The horse races here off 110, which is 7lb higher than his last C&D win, but any horse with a 100% record of 3 from 3 has to be respected. He certainly shouldn't be anywhere near 14/1.
13:10 1:10 Cheltenham
As Legends Have It
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@15.00
Win
45
This horse has one of the better jockeys on board in this Conditionals race, and he is also able to claim 3lb off this bottom weight. The horse has first-time cheekpieces now too and has an unexposed profile. This looks to be his trip, having been placed on his only previous run over it where he was 2nd at 11/4 to the hot favorite. But the winner there is now rated 137, so the fact this horse was just 11/4 to beat him suggests this mark of 113 might underestimate him. His bumper win would also suggest that he's on a lenient mark here.
Subtotal235
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