JamPizza
I'm a sports and betting enthusiast and love trying to solve the puzzle of big handicaps both on the flat and over the jumps. The majority of my tips are double figure prices and I rarely back the favourites. I'm always looking for value and try to post the tips the evening before to get the early prices. Twitter @JamPizza
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Estimated Prizes
this month
£0
Estimated Prize money
this month
JamPizza's Tips History
05 November 2025
18:00 6:00 Kempton
Southbank
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
The way Southbank saw out his race when winning over c&d last time out suggests this 5lb higher mark won't be enough to stop him going in again. He was well on top there and Toby Moore who looks a chip off the old block, takes over now with his 7lb claim. He's started his career well and won easily on his only previous ride over c&d. The horse was competitive off marks around this one on the AW for his previous trainer and the 11/4 looks more than fair.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Nottingham
Hinchinbrooke
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@9.00
Void
0
Rossa Ryan gets a chance for compensation here having gone down by just a length on the horse last time out which was his only previous ride on the horse. That was also an improved effort on good to soft and there's a strong suspicion that the horse might go even closer on this softer ground. Looks on a winnable mark and is unexposed so looks a great e/w bet at around 8/1.
14:22 2:20 Kempton
Huntly Lodge
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@51.00
Lose
-50
This is a crazy price for a horse that was leading at this trip before fading in the final few furlongs on his only previous handicap at the course. It's therefore abundantly clear that a return to this course and a drop in trip is almost certain to see the horse go closer now that he has his conditions. He's still unexposed and has the early pace to grab a good position from a favourable draw. The same jockey is booked and he's 5 lower now too.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
04 November 2025
16:10 4:10 Lingfield
King Cabo
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@41.00
Lose
-50
This trainer/jockey combo had a big-priced winner on the AW yesterday, and this horse is thrown in here on the pick of his form. So, it is perhaps worth giving another chance to in the hope the first-time cheekpieces do the trick. He was placed in each of his two runs over C&D, which were off 73 (beaten a head) and 76. Not much has gone right in the last year, but he's down to 60 now, and the headgear combined with a liking for the C&D might just see the horse bounce back here.
15:40 3:40 Lingfield
Chloes Courage
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
This horse was placed on her first run on the AW last time out when the jockey dropped her reins. The horse can gain compensation here with a jockey booked who is superb value for his 5lb claim and who rides this course particularly well. The jockey on board last time has just one AW win in her last 100 rides, and the extra strength in the saddle could see the horse go very close now off the same mark.
14:57 2:57 Redcar
Hurstwood
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@11.00
Lose
-50
The trainer's runners are going well, and it's a very shrewd move by him to book a promising 7lb claimer for the first time. The horse himself is a C&D specialist with 3 wins from 7 over C&D, and ground just on the easier side of good is ideal. The jockey has been making a few waves in the Tim Easterby stable, and Niven is a shrewd operator, so he's clearly seen that his 7lb claim could see this horse go very close here.
14:40 2:40 Lingfield
Imperial Cult
Daily Racing
25 EWNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@11.00
Void
0
If you look at the way that this excellent 5lb claimer galvanized this horse on his only previous run on him to get up for 3rd, then he's going to have a major chance here over this longer trip. The recently applied blinkers have clearly helped improve the horse, and the placed effort over a similar trip last time out for a jockey with only a less than 4% strike rate is another clue that this jockey is going to have every chance of going even closer on him here.
Subtotal-150
03 November 2025
16:20 4:20 Hereford
Little Pi
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@17.00
Lose
-50
Some of this horse's better runs were the two times this jockey has ridden him, and he could go close off a falling mark. The horse was only beaten 8 lengths the last time he was on board when traveling well and fading late on. He's 5lb lower now, and the drop back in trip looks like exactly what is needed. These could well be his ideal conditions, and this looks a winnable mark now, so rates excellent e/w value.
15:38 3:38 Plumpton
Voix De Bocelli
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@29.00
Lose
-50
Things have really started clicking for Henretta recently, and this horse appears to have been overlooked somewhat. The 5yo was only beaten around a length earlier in the year off a 3lb higher mark, and 2 miles on good ground or slightly easier looks to be where he runs best. Being a 5yo means he's less exposed than many of these, and hopefully, the 8 runners will stand their ground since he looks overpriced for a top 3 finish.
Subtotal-100
02 November 2025
15:47 3:47 Carlisle
Nitty Gritty
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@17.00
Lose
-50
This 5yo has a new trainer, a first time tongue tie and a new jockey here. For me, the penultimate start which was a win in a maiden is the key piece of form, since I'd argue that there are several horses which he beat that would suggest he is on a winnable mark here. I suspect a combination of the ground being too lively and the trip being too far were the cause of a below par effort last time out and I'm happy to go with the form of that maiden win and trust that he is well handicapped now that he has his conditions.
1 member found this comment useful
14:02 2:02 Carlisle
Personal Ambition
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.00
Lose
-50
This horse has run well after a break before, and these look to be his ideal trip and ground conditions. He makes his 6-year-old debut here and has stacks of quality. The beating of Jingko Blue, for example, was on a seasonal appearance a couple of years ago, and that horse has since won many races, the latest of which was off 149. PA races here off 131, and a return to hurdles after chasing looks the key.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
01 November 2025
16:20 4:20 Ascot
Dartmouth Jet
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
There's more fashionable yards being represented here, but 9/1 for this one is plain wrong in my opinion after the horse travelled supremely well when causing a surprise to win on debut. The fact that the runner up was then sent off fav to beat Saint Jeannais in their next race says to me that the form of that race could well be quite decent. It's certainly decent enough to make this 9/1 quote look way too generous with the excellent Ben Jones taking over in the saddle who is riding with supreme confidence at the moment.
1 member found this comment useful
15:45 3:45 Ascot
Blow Your Wad
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
This horse has only been out of the first 2 twice in 8 runs when going right handed and he was an excellent 2nd here over hurdles on his only previous run at the course. The horse has had a 2nd wind op since his last run and gets the first time visor now too. He's run well after a break before and he's only 2lb higher now than his last win when sent off a hot favourite. That was as a 6yo and he's likely to have come on again as a 7yo and looks the one to beat under ideal trip and ground conditions.
1 member found this comment useful
15:35 3:35 Newcastle
Tracker Issue
Daily Racing
25 EW
@41.00
Lose
-50
I was impressed enough in this horse's penultimate start to suggest he could be worth giving another chance here off his falling (and lowest ever) handicap mark. The 3-year-old is down to 57 now, having started life in handicaps off 68, and the drop back in trip looks key since he faded at around this trip in that race. So there's every chance that this could be just what he needs. The trainer has 2 winners and 3 seconds from his last 8 runners, and I don't mind the jockey switch either since he's also been riding well of late.
1 member found this comment useful
15:25 3:25 Newmarket
Stingray
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@17.00
Lose
-50
This race has been dominated by the 3 and 4-year-olds in recent years (they've won the last 7), and we're all race-fit. So, there are only 2 such qualifiers that raced within a month, namely this one and the rank outsider Mirabeau. Stingray is only the German trainer's third-ever runner over here, and he's already had one placed at Ascot. There is a line through Mr. Hollywood, which would put this horse around 105, which basically means that he doesn't have a lot to find on official ratings and should be shorter than 16/1, given the fact that he's only a 4-year-old and will be more progressive than many of these.
1 member found this comment useful
15:10 3:10 Ascot
Indemnity
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@13.00
Lose
-50
The Lavelle and Ben Jones combo is going to be a profitable one to follow this season, and I like the look of this 4-timer chasing gelding. He's obviously going up in the handicap, but he could well be up to it since he was very classy for Roger Varian on the flat (rated as high as 85). The fact he's been sent off hot favourite for each of those wins suggests we haven't got to the bottom of him yet, and he can go in off 121 (6lb higher than his last mark). The 12/1 looks way too big. I'd suggest he should be nearer the 7/1 mark or even shorter.
1 member found this comment useful
13:07 1:07 Newmarket
Pintara
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.00
Win
250
Pintara comes here with a similar profile to last year's winner of the race from the same trainer/jockey combo. She easily won a class 2 novice on her sole run with Radiance back in third, and that one looked a bit useful when winning on debut, so that form could well be good enough to win this. Clearly, she will have improved since then, and her ceiling looks to be higher than her main market rivals, in my opinion, so the 9/2 looks very fair in a race where arguably only 3 or 4 are going to have the quality to win this.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal0
31 October 2025
15:57 3:57 Newmarket
Phone Tag
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@23.00
Win
1100
This top weight, despite being 22/1, has an even better strike rate in this class than the 7/4 favorite and looks the clear value to me. He's still only a 4-year-old too, and the draw in stall 11 should be a good one judged by recent runnings over this course and distance. He won well off a 1 lb lower mark just a few starts ago for an apprentice and traveled so strongly in that race that you'd have to give him a serious chance here.
15:22 3:22 Newmarket
Apache Green
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@19.00
Lose
-50
The trainer has been under a cloud for much of the season but is firing now, and he's going to have some well-handicapped horses on his hands. He puts the cheekpieces on the horse for the first time now, and there's a strong jockey booking. The win when trained by Haggad last year comfortably puts the horse in the 75-80 bracket, and this looks a very winnable mark of just 71 now. No problems with the trip and ground, and looks overpriced.
13:55 1:55 Uttoxeter
Kilbakanto
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.75
Lose
-50
The favourite (Maximum Offers) has to defy a penalty. In any event, this second favourite is the most expensive horse in the race, having been impressive in his PTP race before being moved to the Skeltons. The second horse there won its next race and is now rated 107, so that would already be enough to suggest this one should give the favourite a fright. That's even before we factor in the almost certain improvement for the stable switch.
Subtotal1000
30 October 2025
20:00 8:00 Southwell
Instant Bond
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@8.50
Lose
-50
There is a hot favorite being backed in this, but the jockey isn't one that I personally would rely on. That means there's inflated value to be had elsewhere. This horse looks just the type to go close here off top weight after returning to form with the recent application of the hood last time out. He was third in that race, and the jockey has now been replaced by a real AW specialist who has a great record at this track. The horse was challenging on the wrong part of the track in that narrow defeat last time out and can gain compensation here.
14:25 2:25 Bath
Whiteley Way
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@15.00
Void
0
This horse is still a maiden after 14 runs but surely won't get many better chances than this to get off the mark. A very decent 5lb claimer is booked now, who has a good record both at the course and on soft/heavy ground. The horse was placed on her only previous run here, which was last time out off the same mark when 2nd, and she's also been 2nd at the course before over a different trip off a 12lb higher mark. That excellent effort last time out was after a long layoff, and she should be way shorter than 14/1 on that evidence.
Subtotal-50
29 October 2025
13:17 1:17 Nottingham
Diamond Alexander
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@10.00
Lose
-50
This filly carries top weight here, having run in a Class 2 handicap and a Listed race in her last three outings. A return to calmer waters could be the key here. Her second in a novice race at Bath prior to those runs puts her nearer to an 80-rated horse rather than her current mark of 70, judged on the horses that were further back in that second-place finish. The trainer has given the horse a break and booked a jockey who does well at this track for the first time on the horse.
Subtotal-50
28 October 2025
16:10 4:10 Catterick
Oh So Cool
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@34.00
Lose
-50
If you watch a replay of this horses run last time out, then it offers hope that he could well outrun his 33/1 rank outsider odds here with the first time tongue tie and blinkers combination. The horse was there with every chance until fading quickly in the last furlong and a half. That was on heavy and there's every chance that this soft ground and drop back in trip could be just about ideal. The trainer has a better record at this course than just about anywhere else and the horse has been dropped a generous 4lb from that run so is worth giving another chance to here.
14:20 2:20 Leicester
Giles Glory
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@13.00
Lose
-50
I've just been through the form of this race and picked this one out, but need to post quickly since the 12/1 is drying up very quickly. The trainer wouldn't be booking Fallon for this horse if she didn't fancy its chances. This well-bred colt is expected to improve for both the step up in trip and the first-time headgear. The first-time booking of Fallon is another positive, and quite simply, the sire produces colts generally of a much better quality than 55-rated handicappers.
Subtotal-100
27 October 2025
18:15 6:15 Newcastle
Estrella Divina
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@17.00
Lose
-50
The trainer has a terrific record on the AW generally and specifically at Newcastle, where he has a 33% strike rate. The jockey booked is also the one he usually relies on, and this horse's C&D win here in June gives her a major chance off this mark of 75 in just her 2nd handicap. The horse won very easily, and there was an 88-rated horse back in third. Clearly, this gives her a serious chance here, and we are getting a huge price at 16/1 purely because she flopped on softish ground last time out. Now she's back on the AW, I think she has to be backed to bounce back at this price.
16:20 4:20 Redcar
Moostar
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@12.00
Void
0
There are a few being backed in this. Moostar isn't one of them, but I think 10/1 looks like very good value. The horse is having her second run for a new stable here, and the last time she had this trip and ground resulted in an easy win off a 2lb higher mark, where the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th have all won since. Clearly, that form gives her a major chance here. That is her only previous run in this class.
14:35 2:35 Redcar
Aljezur
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@11.00
Lose
-50
This horse has slipped a massive amount down the handicap, having started life in handicaps off 82 after some excellent runs in maiden and novice company as a 2-year-old. The 4-year-old is down to 47 now and won't have a better chance to shed his maiden tag. The run last time out was definitely more promising, where he was actually sent off 3/1 favorite. The stable clearly thinks he has a win in him, and he gets a jockey upgrade now too with the first-time booking of Hector Crouch.
14:00 2:00 Redcar
Cookie Queen
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@34.00
Lose
-50
This horse is going to put in an all-or-nothing performance, and I think a small win bet could be the order of the day in case she leaves all previous form behind here with a first-time visor and a first run on softer ground, which will almost certainly suit on breeding. The trainer is also hitting a purple patch now, and if there is to be a surprise, this horse could well be the one. The horse is 4 lb out of the handicap, so it's last chance saloon for this one.
Subtotal-150
25 October 2025
17:00 5:00 Doncaster
Harrys Halo
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-50
Jack Mitchell is back on board this one for the first time in a while and that looks significant now that the horse has slipped back to a decent mark. His 3 rides on the horse last year resulted in 3-1-2 and the win was off 71 with the 2nd being beaten just a length off 75, both were on soft ground. He's racing here off 72 with the favoured visor/tongue tie combo being used again. Should go very close.
1 member found this comment useful
16:50 4:50 Newbury
Explode
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-50
Faye Bramley has a terrific 18% strike rate on turf and she clearly knows how to place her horses well. This one makes its debut for her here and she's booked a jockey who's been doing well for her, something she might not perhaps have done if the horse was likely to need the run. The horse hacked up by 4 lengths on his penultimate start before being asked to race over too far last time out. The runner up in that winning race has since hacked up by a huge margin at Epsom and this horse looks way overpriced to me at 12/1.
1 member found this comment useful
15:50 3:50 Doncaster
Chic Colombine
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@23.00
Lose
-50
The only time this horse had the tongue tie and cheekpiece combo resulted in a cracking effort to finish 5th between 105 and 107 rated horses in a Group 3 at Epsom. She's won for this jockey on heavy before too, so that 5th can be upgraded on account of the ground not being ideally soft enough for her. The horse has won here on soft before too, and now that she's in calmer waters with her ideal conditions, this mark of 91 looks a very winnable one.
1 member found this comment useful
14:55 2:55 Cheltenham
Long Draw
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.50
Lose
-50
This is of course a very competitive handicap but to be honest, I wasn't expecting as big as 13/2 for this one which is 2 from 2 over c&d and has a progressive profile. Both the trainer (Olly Murphy) and the jockey (Sean Bowen) couldn't be in any hotter form at the moment and he is definitely the one they all have to beat. In each of those c&d wins, the runner up has come out and won their next race to frank that form and his 6yo debut effort last time out was hugely promising and he looks set for a big campaign this season.
1 member found this comment useful
13:30 1:30 Doncaster
Germanic
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@26.00
Lose
-50
This has been something of a cliff horse for me last season, but I think he's worth giving one last chance since he's undoubtedly well handicapped and has his conditions here. The run after a wind operation last time out was better than it seems at first glance when he was racing on the wrong part of the track. That was a step forward on recent efforts, though, and he was placed on his only previous run at this course off 95 when beaten less than a length on soft. So, with this ground suiting, he could surprise here off a mark of just 90.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-250
24 October 2025
16:35 4:35 Newbury
Bold Impact
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
This horse will strip fitter after a spin on the AW last time out and can go well here on his favoured soft ground. The easy win at Epsom last year (by 6 lengths) was actually in a decent time considering how easy it was, and the trainer won this race 2 years ago. He's 5lb higher now that that easy Epsom win but has plenty of scope and even arguably a jockey upgrade so there's plenty to like about his chances here.
16:28 4:28 Doncaster
Art Design
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@21.00
Lose
-50
Art Design at 20/1 is my main fancy here, with 14/1 shot Ingleby Archive seen as the main danger. When this jockey was last booked for the horse, it resulted in a short head defeat over C&D off a 4lb higher mark. The short head winner then (Station X) reopposes, but there is an 8lb swing in the weights for Art Design, and yet she's still twice the price of Station X. Crucially, that run was on soft, and prior to that, she went down by less than a length again on heavy, so these are clearly her conditions. She's an ex-W Haggas horse too and has had a wind op a couple of runs ago, so has plenty in her favor, especially since the run last time out looked to potentially be a prep run for this.
15:00 3:00 Cheltenham
Doctor Blue
Daily Racing
25 EW
@34.00
Win
140
The last runner for this stable was well supported on seasonal debut before winning well for this jockey and this horse looks seriously overpriced to me. The horse won a bumper on debut last year as well when quickening away to beat a well fancied Henderson horse in style. The 2nd and 3rd are basically 120 rated horses and that form looks strong enough to be competitive here. He's well bred too and could surprise.
1 member found this comment useful
14:51 2:51 Newbury
Music Piece
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
On her soft ground 2yo form, this horse wins this. It's as simple as that. In truth, she's not had really bad ground since, which has seen her slip down to a very winnable mark of just 84. When you consider that she beat the 106-rated Consent on soft ground as a 2yo fair and square, then there's every reason to expect her to power away from these on her favorite ground and with the stable firing in the winners lately.
13:33 1:33 Doncaster
Tiger Mask
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@34.00
Lose
-50
This is the rank outsider of the field, but there's no doubt that the pick of his 2yo form has him on a winnable mark here, especially since he's arguably better on this soft ground. The horse hasn't shown much of late, but the jockey switch to Cieran Fallon is a wise one, and he's riding as good as he ever has at the moment. The easy win at Ascot last year had a string of future winners behind him, and those in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th are basically 90+ winning horses. Tiger Mask races off 92 here and was sent off as short as 5/1 in a Group 2 after that win, so if he does bounce back to form, he has the ability to win off this mark.
13:15 1:15 Cheltenham
Sign Again
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@29.00
Lose
-50
This 5yo has had a wind op since his last race, and since some of his form in his short career is very useful, any further improvement from the wind op is going to make a mockery of his 28/1 outsider quote here. His last run of last year can be ignored since that was over too far a trip, but prior to that, his easy beating of the 130-rated Pigeon House at this trip reads really well (he was receiving 5lb). He races off 123 here, and on that evidence, you'd have to say he has every chance in this race, which has been won by 5yos in 4 of the last 7 years.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-110
23 October 2025
17:05 5:05 Nottingham
Chambers
Daily Racing
25 EWNBNOTETip made at odds of 12.00 on 22/10 at 18:260.10 deduction for Joycean Way@10.00 withdrawn at 15:45R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 11.00 x (1-0.10) = 10.90
@10.90
Win
24
This horse's 4th of 12 on soft ground on debut is the piece of form which gives him a serious chance here. The shrewd trainer puts on cheekpieces and a tongue tie now and books Sean Levey for the first time on the horse, all of which suggests that she has him lined up to go close here. The trainer has only used the jockey once (he won) and only had one runner here (he also won), and her strike rate is so good that she clearly knows how to place her horses extremely well.
14:30 2:30 Nottingham
Kalik
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@10.00
Lose
-50
It's all about the ground here since this horse needs soft ground and any further rain would increase confidence. The trainer has put the horse away for a while to await this softer ground and he could bounce back to form here since the last time he had soft ground, he hacked up on it by over 3 lengths for this jockey off a 4lb lower mark. Such was the ease of that win, that the horse was eased down and he had stacks in hand so this higher mark doesn't concern me at all since he is clearly good enough to win this.
Subtotal-26
22 October 2025
16:20 4:20 Worcester
Taymount
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@10.00
Lose
-50
This trainer has hit form in October, and whenever he books Gavin Sheehan, he means business (8 from 29 together). The 2nd in a maiden hurdle last time out was obviously a surprise because he was 50/1, but when you pick through the form of those that he finished ahead of, I'd say that he should have a few pounds in hand off this opening handicap mark. Breeding suggests he'll appreciate this longer trip too.
15:45 3:45 Worcester
Lucky Bere
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 11.00 used instead of 8.00 takenBOG
@11.00
Win
25
The last time this trainer booked Harry Cobden, the horse won by a nose after a year and a half off. I'd expect her to have this one fit and raring to go too. The horse has had a wind operation since his last run but has some good form in the book as a 3-year-old last season. The close-up 2nd in a class 2 juvenile hurdle looks good enough to go very close off this mark. With there likely to be improvement for both the wind operation and the jockey switch, I think the 7/1 rates decent value.
Subtotal-25
21 October 2025
15:45 3:45 Yarmouth
Neyvas Angel
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@26.00
Lose
-50
The trainer is in red-hot form, and this horse's debut run here gives her a serious chance despite being one of the rank outsiders. She was beaten less than a length when third over a furlong further, and she was 2nd until late on, so the drop back in trip should suit. Crucially, the 1st, 2nd, and 4th have all won since. The 1st and 2nd, in particular, have won off higher marks than Neyvas Angel races off here, and the fact she got within a length of both of them would suggest she shouldn't be written off here, especially as she is totally unexposed.
1 member found this comment useful
15:10 3:10 Yarmouth
Melvin Udall
Daily Racing
25 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 17.00 used instead of 8.00 takenBOG
@17.00
Win
55
This one is friendless in the early market but looks progressive and should go very close from what should be a favourable high draw. The horse was 4th of 18 in a maiden in Ireland on debut before joining the bigger yard of Ed Walker and that form puts him in here with every chance. It's easy to make a case for this horse being at least 7lb ahead of this current mark and the win last time out shows he can handle ground on the easier side of good if any rain comes.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal5
20 October 2025
17:35 5:35 Bath
Gladiadora
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-50
This horse makes her debut for a new stable here, who have a tremendous strike rate of 22% in their first year on turf, which is incredible really. It's safe to assume that the horse is going to improve for the stable switch, and she's already a C&D winner, which is a major plus around here. The horse is 2lb lower now, and that C&D win was by more than 5 lengths, so there's a lot to like about her chances here.
17:08 5:08 Pontefract
Lethal Nymph
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Win
45
This horse has a good record when racing in this class and a good record for this jockey. He's also finished 2nd on his only previous run over C&D, which was off the same mark, so this all points to the 14/1 being great value. The winner in that C&D race where he was 2nd has since run so well that he's now rated around 10lb higher, so that horse was a handicap snip on the day. His only runs in this class recently were that 2nd and then a win, so this is clearly his level and he should go close.
17:00 5:00 Bath
Bobby Dassler
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 17.00 on 19/10 at 16:350.10 deduction for Claxton Bay@10.00 withdrawn at 07:090.10 deduction for Dappled Light @8.500 withdrawn at 09:07R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 16.00 x (1-0.2) = 13.80
@13.80
Win
640
It's quite well known now just how good Elizabeth Gale is, and she's been placed in all 3 rides on this horse. The horse is on a lower mark now than 2 of those efforts, and one of those was over C&D. It's surprising that the tongue tie had been discarded some time ago because the last time it was fitted resulted in a 2-length defeat off a 21lb higher mark. This fact and the jockey's 5lb claim surely suggest that the horse is overpriced here.
16:33 4:33 Pontefract
Livonian
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@5.00
Lose
-50
This is the least exposed horse in the field, and the others aren't exactly prolific winners, so he looks to have every chance of taking this. The nose 2nd on debut was a race where the winner has run well since, and the 3rd, 4th, and 5th have all won since. If you piece those runs of the opposition together, it's easy to make a case for this horse being a 90+ handicapper, so this opening mark of 84 looks more than generous to me.
Subtotal585
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