JamPizza

There is a hot favorite being backed in this, but the jockey isn't one that I personally would rely on. That means there's inflated value to be had elsewhere. This horse looks just the type to go close here off top weight after returning to form with the recent application of the hood last time out. He was third in that race, and the jockey has now been replaced by a real AW specialist who has a great record at this track. The horse was challenging on the wrong part of the track in that narrow defeat last time out and can gain compensation here.

The favourite (Maximum Offers) has to defy a penalty. In any event, this second favourite is the most expensive horse in the race, having been impressive in his PTP race before being moved to the Skeltons. The second horse there won its next race and is now rated 107, so that would already be enough to suggest this one should give the favourite a fright. That's even before we factor in the almost certain improvement for the stable switch.

The Lavelle and Ben Jones combo is going to be a profitable one to follow this season, and I like the look of this 4-timer chasing gelding. He's obviously going up in the handicap, but he could well be up to it since he was very classy for Roger Varian on the flat (rated as high as 85). The fact he's been sent off hot favourite for each of those wins suggests we haven't got to the bottom of him yet, and he can go in off 121 (6lb higher than his last mark). The 12/1 looks way too big. I'd suggest he should be nearer the 7/1 mark or even shorter.

This race has been dominated by the 3 and 4-year-olds in recent years (they've won the last 7), and we're all race-fit. So, there are only 2 such qualifiers that raced within a month, namely this one and the rank outsider Mirabeau. Stingray is only the German trainer's third-ever runner over here, and he's already had one placed at Ascot. There is a line through Mr. Hollywood, which would put this horse around 105, which basically means that he doesn't have a lot to find on official ratings and should be shorter than 16/1, given the fact that he's only a 4-year-old and will be more progressive than many of these.