surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
0
Estimated Prizes
this month
£0
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
All sports
30 April 2025
15:00 Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings T20
A Omarzai
Man Of The Match
146 WIN
@17.00
Lose
-146
Decent all-rounder, with so many strings to his bow with the ball and bat. This gives him a decent chance to be Man of the Match. Price too high here at 16-1.
Subtotal-146
29 April 2025
05:30 India Women vs South Africa Women One Day Match
South Africa Women
Win Match
140 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-140
This game looks likely to be reduced in overs due to rain. I feel this suits South Africa more, as their strongest format is the 20-20 format. For India, the ODI format is their strongest, but reduced overs means this game could become more like a 20-20. Price too high here.
A Khaka
Man Of The Match
69 WIN
@29.00
Lose
-69
Talented cricketer. The Indian batting lineup is strong at playing spin. However, if they do have a weakness, it's against pace bowling and swing bowlers. Khaka is a medium pacer who often gets more swing than most. Price a tad high here.
L Goodall (South Africa Women)
Top Team2 Batsman
80 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-80
India's new ball attack is improved these days and is decent, meaning early wickets for South Africa are quite likely. This gives someone from the middle order like Goodall a decent chance to top score. The ODI format is her strongest format.
Subtotal-289
28 April 2025
11:00 Derbyshire vs Middlesex
Derbyshire
Draw No Bet
150 WIN
@2.30
Push
0
Generous price here considering these two teams are pretty evenly matched. With home advantage, a strong performance is likely from Derbyshire.
11:00 Gloucestershire vs Leicestershire
Gloucestershire
Draw No Bet
70 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-70
Out of all the county matches starting this Friday, this selection has the most early sharp money support at the sites I use. I like this and will follow at what is a decent enough price.
11:00 Nottinghamshire vs Sussex
Nottinghamshire
Draw No Bet
60 WIN
@1.91
Win
55
Bookies have this priced wrong here. The home side should be slightly favored here. Home advantage is significant enough, and Notts have the stronger team list.
11:00 Surrey vs Somerset
Somerset
Draw No Bet
68 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-68
this is a generous price based on form and the likely team lists of both teams. This price should be no bigger than 2.90 here in my opinion.
11:00 Worcestershire vs Durham
Durham
Draw No Bet
50 WIN
@1.67
Win
34
There is a gulf in class between these two teams, and it should show in the end result. Other than playing at home, Worcestershire doesn't have much going for them here.
Subtotal-49
27 April 2025
15:00 Gloucester v Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs
To Win
70 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-70
This price should be no bigger than 4.00 here. Getting much better than that. There are no facets where the home side has a significant advantage. It's a reasonably tight matchup here.
Exeter Chiefs 10.50
Handicap
90 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-90
I have this game as a more even matchup than the bookies. Gloucester have a solid forward pack, but that's all. Exeter can match them in that area. The edge in back play is with the hosts, but it's only a small advantage.
07:05 Wests Tigers v Cronulla Sharks
Cronulla Sharks
To Win
50 WIN
@1.44
Push
0
There is a gulf in class and player quality between these two teams, and it should show in the end result. Other than playing at home, the Tigers don't have much going for them here.
05:00 Canberra Raiders v Dolphins
Dolphins
To Win
80 WIN
@2.62
Lose
-80
I give the Dolphins no less than a 42% chance of winning this game, so getting value odds here at 2.62, very much so in fact. Canberra's defense may well struggle to contain a pretty potent attacking game the visitors have.
Dolphins 6.50
Handicap (2-way)
130 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-130
The Dolphins' strength is their attacking game. This poses problems for the Raiders, who are pretty ordinary defensively. I like the team named for the visitors.
Subtotal-370
26 April 2025
17:30 Northampton v Bristol
Bristol
To Win
70 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-70
Bristol were disappointing last game. Quality sides often respond strongly after a poor performance. I can see the forward battle here being pretty even. Price too high here.
17:30 Salford v Leigh
Salford
To Win
55 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-55
Salford have the attacking game to test and trouble a Leigh defence that is nothing special at all. This 7-1 price should be no bigger than 6-1 here in my opinion.
Salford 18.50
Handicap (2-way)
90 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-90
Leigh are nothing special defensively. This is where Salford can test and trouble them. Salford have a solid attacking game and should be competitive in this game.
15:05 Leicester v Harlequins
Harlequins 8.50
Handicap
80 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-80
Quins will see this game as a realistic win. The home side have been a model of inconsistency this season and have had great trouble backing up a decent performance with another one. Line a tad high here.
15:00 Bath v Newcastle Falcons
Newcastle Falcons
To Win
50 WIN
@18.00
Lose
-50
Team news is not great for Bath here. Newcastle are a better chance than these odds suggest. This 17-1 price should be no bigger than 14-1 here, in my opinion.
15:00 Huddersfield v Castleford
Castleford
To Win
300 WIN
@2.00
Win
300
Castleford have the superior recent form out of these two sides and the stronger team list. This price should be no bigger than 1.91 here.
Castleford 2.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
Don't really agree with the prices for this game. I make this a level game as to who wins, so taking any sort of plus handicap is a bonus here.
10:35 Brumbies v Hurricanes
Hurricanes
To Win
60 WIN
@2.88
Win
113
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.75 here, getting much better than that. The forward battle looks pretty even, and the Canes have the edge in back play.
Hurricanes 6.50
Handicap
90 WIN
@1.91
Win
82
Bigger game for the visitors than the hosts. The Canes badly need this win for a playoff spot. I think they will compete well in the forward battle and have the edge in back play.
08:05 Highlanders v Crusaders
Highlanders
To Win
70 WIN
@4.20
Lose
-70
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 4.00 here. Playing at home against their strongest rival, motivation will be high for the Highlanders. I like their team name.
Highlanders 10.50
Handicap
100 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-100
At least 80% of the Highlanders' decent performances in recent seasons have occurred in their home games. This is surely a game they will be up for against their strong southern rivals.
Subtotal20
25 April 2025
09:05 New Zealand Warriors v Newcastle Knights
Newcastle Knights
To Win
70 WIN
@3.30
Lose
-70
I expect a very fired-up Knights team for this game. They have been underwhelming in recent weeks. However, there is enough player quality to make a playoff push. And they will fancy their chances against a pretty flawed Warriors team here.
07:00 Sydney Roosters v St George/Illawarra Dragons
St George/Illawarra Dragons
To Win
130 WIN
@2.05
Lose
-130
This is a game on the Dragons' schedule you can be sure they will be up for. The Anzac Day meeting with the Roosters has a lot of meaning for them. They are strong enough in key positions to be a decent chance here.
Subtotal-200
24 April 2025
03:00 EDM Oilers @ LA Kings
EDM Oilers
Money Line
80 WIN
@2.15
Lose
-80
Quality teams often respond strongly from a disappointing showing. While the close scoreline in game one shows the Oilers were right in it, by their own high standards it was a sub-par performance. 2.15 should be no bigger than 2.10 here.
EDM Oilers 1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@1.44
Lose
-50
The game one performance by the Oilers would not make their top 40 performances this season. And they still covered this puckline. I expect an improved showing here from a quality team.
00:30 MIA Heat @ CLE Cavaliers
MIA Heat
Money Line
70 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-70
Miami has scored 109 points or more in 90% of their last 13 games played. A repeat here and they will be right in it. I see game one as a bit of an aberration.
00:00 MON Canadiens @ WAS Capitals
MON Canadiens
Money Line
300 WIN
@2.65
Lose
-300
Half the battle is whether a team has enough self-belief and self-confidence. This Montreal team does right now, and they will be very keen to not get themselves in a 0-2 hole.
MON Canadiens 1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-50
With so much at stake for Montreal here, I see a competitive performance as very likely. There has been enough high quality of play from them recently to see it no differently.
00:00 ORL Magic @ BOS Celtics
ORL Magic
Money Line
130 WIN
@5.25
Lose
-130
It's defensively that the Magic are pretty sound. This is a tough proposition for most teams, including Boston. The heavy favorite tag is not something Boston enjoys, with a high number of their losses this season coming when heavily favored.
Subtotal-680
23 April 2025
00:30 OTT Senators @ TOR Maple Leafs
OTT Senators
Money Line
200 WIN
@2.40
Lose
-200
Well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here at what is a decent enough price. In the last 6 meetings between these two teams, Ottawa has won 5.
OTT Senators 1.50
Puck Line
60 WIN
@1.53
Win
32
Ottawa will be giving everything they have here in their most important game this season. There will be plenty of self-belief, which is half the battle won, as they have won 5 out of their last 6 versus Toronto.
00:00 MIL Bucks @ IND Pacers
IND Pacers -4.00
Pointspread
71 WIN
@1.91
Win
65
The Bucks have not coped well with the Pacers' up-tempo and potent offense in recent meetings. And I don't see much changing today. With most of the Pacers' key players in and a pumped home arena, this is every chance.
Subtotal-103
22 April 2025
03:10 EDM Oilers @ LA Kings
EDM Oilers
Money Line
70 WIN
@2.15
Lose
-70
Bookies have the wrong favorite here. The playoffs are a different beast to the regular season, and I believe the Oilers will step up their levels in the playoffs and go to a level the Kings cannot. Price too high here.
03:00 EDM Oilers @ LA Kings
EDM Oilers 1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@1.42
Win
21
I am not buying into the Kings hype. They have shown me too many flaws this season, and I don't believe they are a legit contender for the title. Not the case for the Oilers. Taking the superior team to prevail in game one.
00:30 DET Pistons @ NY Knicks
DET Pistons
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.30
Win
138
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.20 here. This selection is well supported with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here.
00:30 STL Blues @ WIN Jets
STL Blues
Money Line
60 WIN
@2.70
Lose
-60
There is only a minor gap in class between these two teams. After dropping game one, the Blues will be hellbent on not going down 0-2 in this series. They will be very desperate, so perhaps they will want it more. 2.70 is too big of a price here.
STL Blues 1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@1.62
Win
31
There is little between these two teams. The Blues are playing with a chip on their shoulder as many people do not really rate them, which is off the mark. They are a quality side and can win this series. Price is a tad high here.
00:00 MON Canadiens @ WAS Capitals
MON Canadiens
Money Line
78 WIN
@2.70
Lose
-78
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.65 here, so some minor value. All the pressure is on the home side here. Pressure is often a significant negative. Montreal has shown me enough high quality of play this season to think they are a decent chance here.
MON Canadiens 1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@1.62
Win
31
I struggle to see the visitors getting blown out here. Plus, there is a good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here.
Subtotal13
21 April 2025
14:00 Ratiopharm Ulm vs Oldenburg
Oldenburg
Money Line
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
Don't really agree with this price. Most bookies have it at around 5.50, which is a far more accurate reflection of win probability here. The visitors have a solid offense that can test and trouble the hosts, who are nothing special defensively.
11:00 Derbyshire vs Northants
Derbyshire
Draw No Bet
53 WIN
@1.80
Push
0
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 1.75 here, so some solid value at 1.80. I will take on a pretty flawed Northants team at a tough home venue.
11:00 Durham vs Yorkshire
Durham
Draw No Bet
50 WIN
@2.10
Push
0
Decent home team is Durham with a proven track record at home in recent seasons. This 2.10 price should be no bigger than evens here, in my opinion.
11:00 Essex vs Worcestershire
Essex
Draw No Bet
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Another game where there is a gulf in class between these two teams. Essex have the stronger team list and are tough to beat on their home patch.
11:00 Hampshire vs Somerset
Somerset
Draw No Bet
130 WIN
@2.30
Push
0
I have this game as a tighter matchup than the bookies. Personally, I think this price should be no bigger than 2.20 here, so very much getting value odds here.
11:00 Kent vs Gloucestershire
Gloucestershire
Draw No Bet
90 WIN
@2.50
Push
0
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.40 here, in my opinion, so very much getting value odds. On form, this is a tight matchup.
11:00 Lancashire vs Leicestershire
Lancashire
Draw No Bet
70 WIN
@1.57
Push
0
There is a gulf in class between these two teams, and that should show in the end result. Plus, this is a home game for Lancashire, where they are tough to beat.
11:00 Sussex vs Surrey
Surrey
Draw No Bet
50 WIN
@1.62
Push
0
Surrey are the superior team here and should get the job done against a pretty flawed Sussex team, who, other than playing at home, don't have much going for them here.
11:00 Warwickshire vs Nottinghamshire
Nottinghamshire
Draw No Bet
80 WIN
@2.00
Push
0
Bookies have the wrong favorite here, in my opinion. On form, the visitors should be slightly favored here and have the stronger team list.
07:00 Wests Tigers v Parramatta Eels
Wests Tigers
To Win
210 WIN
@1.73
Lose
-210
The Eels are the most flawed team in the entire NRL and should be wooden spoon favourites. The Tigers at home is a tough assignment, which they will probably fail. This price should be no bigger than 1.67 here.
00:05 OTT Senators @ TOR Maple Leafs
OTT Senators
Money Line
450 WIN
@2.55
Lose
-450
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.40 here. There is a good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here.
OTT Senators 1.50
Puck Line
300 WIN
@1.56
Lose
-300
These two teams have played 3 times this season, with Ottawa winning all 3 meetings. Two out of the three were wins by wide margins. The Sens have won their last 5 meetings with Toronto. Price too big here at 2.50.
00:00 MIA Heat @ CLE Cavaliers
MIA Heat
Money Line
79 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-79
The Heat has the offense to test and trouble a Cleveland defense that is nothing special. In the Heat's last 13 matches, they have scored 109 points or more in 12 out of the 13. They have also won 10 out of their last 14 matches played. Price too big here.
Subtotal-1064
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
