surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

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surfsup's Tips History

All tips
19 April 2025
17:30 Saracens v Gloucester

Gloucester

To Win

53 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-53

Too big of a price here. Saracens have been too inconsistent to be trusted here at such low odds. I will gladly go the other way at attractive odds.
15:05 Harlequins v Sale Sharks

Sale Sharks

To Win

50 WIN

@2.50

Win

75

Sale will see this game as a realistic win. It's a tight matchup where the result could easily go either way. 2.50 odds in such a toss-up game? Yes, please.
15:00 Exeter Chiefs v Bath

Exeter Chiefs

To Win

70 WIN

@4.33

Lose

-70

dont really agree with this price it should be no bigger than 4.00 here, getting much better than that exeter are a well drilled outfit and i sense they will be up for this one.

Exeter Chiefs 11.50

Handicap

201 WIN

@1.91

Win

183

I have this game a closer call than the bookies. Both teams offer plenty attacking-wise. The visitors have the attack to test and trouble a Bath defense that is nothing special.
13:30 Leigh v Warrington

Warrington

To Win

130 WIN

@2.20

Lose

-130

Generous price here for a quality side. I see this game as very close to 50-50 as to who wins, so it makes sense to take the 2.20 price, which should be no bigger than evens here in my opinion.
10:35 Western Force v Hurricanes

Western Force

To Win

130 WIN

@2.62

Push

0

The Force have won 85% of their home games in the past two seasons. The Hurricanes are a pretty flawed team this season, and even with some key players back for this game, this should be a bridge too far.
08:30 New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos

New Zealand Warriors

To Win

60 WIN

@3.20

Push

0

Fresh off a truly embarrassing loss and back at their home fortress, I expect a strong response from the Warriors. Brisbane is nothing special defensively, and that's an area the Warriors can exploit.
08:05 Chiefs v Highlanders

Chiefs

To Win

80 WIN

@1.14

Win

11

I will take on a pretty flawed Highlanders team here. They lack cohesion in their attack, and their forward pack is nothing better than solid. The Chiefs should have too much firepower here at home.
05:35 Moana Pasifika v Brumbies

Moana Pasifika

To Win

120 WIN

@3.40

Lose

-120

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.10 here, getting much better than that. The Brumbies have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed at low odds here.

Moana Pasifika 8.50

Handicap

200 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-200

Big game in the context of the home side's season. I like the team they have named. They have the edge in back play with the Brumbies having the edge in forward play. It's a tight matchup, so it makes sense to take this generous headstart.
03:05 Fijian Drua v Waratahs

Waratahs

To Win

60 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-60

I have this game priced quite differently to the bookies. I would have NSW no bigger than 2.30 here. The Fiji side can be quite brilliant at times but also very poor at other times. I will take the slightly more consistent team here.
18 April 2025
17:30 Leeds v Huddersfield

Huddersfield

To Win

110 WIN

@11.00

Lose

-110

Some minor value at this price. Personally, I think it should be no bigger than 9-1 here, which is where several bookies have it. Leeds are nothing special this season, and if they have an off day, this is not that unlikely.

Huddersfield 23.50

Handicap (2-way)

300 WIN

@2.00

Win

300

I am not a believer in Leeds this season in terms of being a legit contender for the title. They have shown me enough flaws in recent seasons and are a solid lay at very low odds today.
15:00 Wigan v St Helens

St Helens

To Win

60 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-60

It's going to take a quality side to beat Wigan this season, not just for the title but also week to week. I feel Saints offer enough, especially attacking-wise, to be right in this contest. Price a tad high at 3.75.
12:30 Hull FC v Hull KR

Hull FC

To Win

68 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-68

Some games you know a team will really be up for. This is one of those for Hull FC against their strongest rival in the Super League. Attacking-wise, they can test and trouble Hull KR and are better than a puncher's chance here.
08:05 Crusaders v Blues

Crusaders

To Win

77 WIN

@1.40

Win

31

Team news is more favourable for the home side here. The Blues are the more flawed team right now. I think the Crusaders will win the forward battle, which will set the foundation for the win.
17 April 2025
10:50 Manly Sea Eagles v St George/Illawarra Dragons

Manly Sea Eagles

To Win

50 WIN

@1.57

Lose

-50

The Dragons have been a poor away team in recent seasons. Their road record makes very grim reading. The home team has won 9 out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Price a tad high here.
00:07 ANA Ducks @ WIN Jets

WIN Jets

Money Line

60 WIN

@1.33

Win

20

Close to a full-strength player lineup for the Jets for this game. The Jets are among the top few home teams in the league this season for win percentage and should have too much for a pretty flawed Ducks team.
16 April 2025
00:07 CHI Blackhawks @ OTT Senators

OTT Senators

Money Line

72 WIN

@1.40

Lose

-72

I prefer Ottawa's preparation for this game. They have been based at home, so no travel, and did not play yesterday. Chicago did play yesterday, and it was a taxing game. They have had a fair amount of travel recently. Price about right at 1.40 though, unfortunately.
15 April 2025
03:07 SJ Sharks @ VAN Canucks

VAN Canucks

Money Line

78 WIN

@1.31

Win

24

I like the amount of sharp money around for the Canucks for this game. Plus, the home side has had far better preparation for this game. Price is a tad high here at 1.31.
13 April 2025
22:07 TOR Maple Leafs @ CAR Hurricanes

TOR Maple Leafs

Money Line

80 WIN

@2.85

Win

148

Too much value here to pass up or turn down. This price should be no bigger than 2.70 here. With a 23-13 road record, that ranks the Leafs in the top 10 road records in the league. Carolina have lost 4 out of their last 5 games.
18:10 CHI Bulls @ PHI 76ers

PHI 76ers

Money Line

120 WIN

@4.60

Lose

-120

The Bulls are exactly 20-20 on the road this season, which on the surface is a solid enough road record. However, a high number of those 20 road losses have been to mid-tier or low-tier teams. These are some of their road losses this season: New Orleans, Brooklyn, Orlando, Atlanta, Washington, Detroit, and Portland. The Washington loss was by 18 points.
18:10 NY Knicks @ BKN Nets

BKN Nets

Money Line

100 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-100

I think this will be a game the Nets will really be up for. For a few reasons: last game of the season and it's at home, last time playing in front of fans, family, and friends. Plus, the Knicks are arguably the Nets' biggest rival team.
18:07 PHI Flyers @ OTT Senators

PHI Flyers

Money Line

80 WIN

@3.10

Lose

-80

The price is about correct here, so small stakes. The Flyers have won 5 out of their last 6 games. Attacking-wise, they are clicking nicely right now. This is a winnable game versus pretty flawed opposition.
15:00 Huddersfield v Catalan Dragons

Huddersfield 12.50

Handicap (2-way)

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

Generous line for what will be a desperate team who is playing at home. Like most teams, the Dragons are more vulnerable on the road. 10.5 is a more accurate line here.
07:05 Newcastle Knights v Wests Tigers

Wests Tigers 1.50

Handicap (2-way)

50 WIN

@2.00

Win

50

Newcastle lack cohesion in their attacking game. The Tigers have the edge in that area and will see this game as a realistic win. Small stakes only here. The prices are about right.
03:07 MIN Wild @ VAN Canucks

MIN Wild

Money Line

104 WIN

@1.83

Win

86

I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection. The Canucks are only slightly above .500 at home this season, while the Wild rank in the top 10 teams in the NHL for road win %. Price is a tad high here.

MIN Wild -1.50

Puck Line

50 WIN

@3.05

Lose

-50

Don't really agree with this price. The Canucks have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed here against a more than capable Wild team, who were disappointing in their last game. Expect a strong response here.
12 April 2025
20:00 Castleford v Leigh

Leigh

To Win

50 WIN

@1.36

Win

18

Leigh are the superior team here and should get the job done against pretty flawed opposition. Price about right though, so small stakes.
17:30 Warrington v Hull FC

Hull FC

To Win

50 WIN

@4.33

Win

166

Worth a small go at these odds. 4.33 should be no bigger than 4.20 here in my opinion. I like the team named by the visitors. A strong performance is likely.

Hull FC 14.50

Handicap (2-way)

100 WIN

@1.80

Win

80

Dangerous game for Warrington. Hull have picked up their act of late and have named a reasonably strong team here. Line a tad high in my opinion.
10:35 Reds v Brumbies

Reds

To Win

80 WIN

@1.60

Lose

-80

I have more faith in the Reds at home, where they rarely lose. Brumbies have shaky recent form, and this should be a bridge too far. Price about right though, so small stakes.
08:05 Highlanders v Fijian Drua

Fijian Drua 9.50

Handicap

67 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-67

The Fiji side are fresh off a truly embarrassing performance, their worst of the season. I expect a strong response here from a capable enough team. They will enjoy the dry conditions under the roof.
05:35 Blues v Moana Pasifika

Moana Pasifika

To Win

53 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-53

With dry weather and being a rare day game, the attacking games of both teams will go a long way to deciding the winner. I feel the visitors can match or better the Blues in that department. Price too big here.

Moana Pasifika 13.50

Handicap

92 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-92

I can make a strong argument that Moana Pasifika have the more cohesive attacking game right now, out of these two teams. Granted, the advantage defensively is with the Blues. But being a day game and with fine weather, the attacking game is crucial here. Line a tad high.
11 April 2025
15:00 Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders T20

Chennai Super Kings

Win Match

70 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-70

Generous price here, and I don't really agree with it. I give the home side no less than a 52% chance of victory. So, getting value odds here at evens.
10:35 Waratahs v Chiefs

Waratahs

To Win

70 WIN

@5.00

Win

280

Personally, I think this price should be no bigger than 4.50 here, so getting value odds. An even forward battle looks likely. Anytime this is the case, the underdog is a decent chance.

Waratahs 12.50

Handicap

108 WIN

@1.91

Win

98

NSW have been decent at home this season. I think they can be competitive in the forward battle tonight at home. It's a pretty even forward battle. Chiefs have the edge in back play, but that's all it is, an edge.
08:05 Hurricanes v Crusaders

Crusaders

To Win

50 WIN

@2.25

Win

62

Don't really agree with this price. Various basic errors have been the Hurricanes' undoing this season. These are not easily fixed. A decent Crusaders team will punish them.

Crusaders 2.50

Handicap

70 WIN

@1.91

Win

64

The Hurricanes have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed here versus a quality Crusaders team. Basic errors have cost the Hurricanes this season. A repeat tonight and they should struggle.
10 April 2025
02:10 POR Trail Blazers @ UTA Jazz

UTA Jazz

Money Line

60 WIN

@3.30

Win

138

The Blazers have 44 losses this season. A high number of these losses have been on the road, 26 to be exact. Utah has a solid offense to test and trouble a Portland defense that is pretty ordinary.
09 April 2025
15:00 Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals T20

Rajasthan Royals

Win Match

68 WIN

@2.10

Lose

-68

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.00 here. For me, this game is very much 50-50, so it makes sense to take the 2.10 price.
08 April 2025
03:37 CAL Flames @ SJ Sharks

SJ Sharks

Money Line

80 WIN

@2.90

Lose

-80

Decent enough price for a capable enough home team. The Flames have 27 losses this season. 15 of those have been on the road. Their road record in recent seasons is mediocre.
00:37 STL Blues @ WIN Jets

STL Blues

Money Line

61 WIN

@2.65

Lose

-61

The Blues have won 12 games in a row, which ranks them as the hottest team in the league. With most of their key players in, a strong performance is likely again today. Price is a tad high here.
07 April 2025
01:40 MIL Bucks @ NO Pelicans

NO Pelicans

Money Line

56 WIN

@3.60

Lose

-56

I prefer New Orleans' preparation for this game. They did not play yesterday and have been based at home, so no travel. The Bucks did play yesterday, and it was a taxing game. They have had a fair amount of travel.
06 April 2025
23:10 SAC Kings @ CLE Cavaliers

CLE Cavaliers

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.22

Lose

-50

I will take on a pretty flawed Kings team here, against one of the most consistent teams in the league. Only 5 home losses all season, which is in the top 3 teams in the league for home win percentage.
20:40 TOR Raptors @ BKN Nets

BKN Nets

Money Line

70 WIN

@2.30

Lose

-70

Toronto has one of the worst road records in the league. 27 of their 50 losses have been on the road. The Nets at home is a tough assignment. Price a tad high here.
18:40 TOR Blue Jays @ NY Mets

TOR Blue Jays

Money Line

65 WIN

@2.15

Lose

-65

Toronto let victory slip yesterday after being in complete control. Look for a strong response today from a decent enough team. Favourable starting pitching matchup here for the visitors.

TOR Blue Jays 1.50

Run Line

50 WIN

@1.53

Win

26

Toronto have been impressive to start the season and get a favorable pitching matchup here. A tight game is on the cards, so it makes sense to take the +1.5.
18:35 LA Dodgers @ PHI Phillies

PHI Phillies

Money Line

57 WIN

@2.20

Win

68

35 of the Dodgers' 64 losses last season came on the road. Beating Philly at home is in the top 5 toughest assignments in MLB. Price too high here.

PHI Phillies 1.50

Run Line

50 WIN

@1.67

Win

34

60-65% of the Dodgers' wins by big margins last season came when they were playing at home. On the road, they are more vulnerable, like most teams. Line and odds are too generous here.
18:35 MIA Marlins @ ATL Braves

MIA Marlins

Money Line

60 WIN

@2.38

Void

0

The Braves are now 1-8 to start the season. I will keep opposing them until they show signs of life. Right now, it's a real struggle for them.

MIA Marlins 1.50

Run Line

50 WIN

@1.59

Void

0

The Braves have come with a big billing this season, but as of now, they have failed to deliver. Right now, they are struggling with a 1-8 record.
18:35 NY Yankees @ PIT Pirates

PIT Pirates

Money Line

53 WIN

@2.55

Win

82

Like most teams, the Yankees are more vulnerable on the road. Early sharp money coming for this selection is a positive sign in my view.

PIT Pirates 1.50

Run Line

50 WIN

@1.95

Win

47

This is a well-supported selection with the sharp money early, which I like and will follow here at a decent enough price. It should be no bigger than 1.91 here.
18:10 CHI Bulls @ CHA Hornets

CHA Hornets

Money Line

60 WIN

@4.60

Lose

-60

The Hornets have 19 wins this season. 12 of these have come at home. Of all the Bulls' losses this season and last season, a high number have come against low-tier or mid-tier teams.
14:30 Warrington v St Helens

Warrington

To Win

60 WIN

@1.80

Win

48

Warrington at home is a tough assignment. St Helens have not shown me enough high level of play this season, especially away, to think they will get the result here. Price a tad high at 1.80.
00:15 MIA Marlins @ ATL Braves

MIA Marlins 1.50

Run Line

50 WIN

@2.10

Win

55

Price is too low here, so small stakes. Big things are expected of the Braves this season, but right now they are struggling and have started 1-7. I will oppose the struggling team.
00:10 MIN Timberwolves @ PHI 76ers

PHI 76ers

Money Line

70 WIN

@9.50

Lose

-70

The Wolves are just 22-16 on the road. Last season, they had 26 losses; 15 were on the road. Despite not having many big names right now, there is enough talent in this Philly roster to be competitive here at home and possibly steal the win.
00:10 TOR Blue Jays @ NY Mets

TOR Blue Jays

Money Line

220 WIN

@2.10

Lose

-220

Don't really agree with this price. Favourable pitching matchup here for the visitors. This price should be no bigger than evens here, in my opinion. The Blue Jays have been impressive to start the season.

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