surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
2
Estimated Prizes
this month
£15
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
21 October 2025
03:00 HOU Texans @ SEA Seahawks
HOU Texans
Money Line
60 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-60
This is a tight matchup. It makes sense to take 2.50 odds in a game where the result could easily go either way. Seattle does the basics well but lacks the X factor. Much like Houston, 2.50 odds in a tight matchup? Yes, please.
HOU Texans 3.00
Point Spread
199 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-199
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection. The Texans have a decent team defense that ranks well in several stat categories. This will cause the hosts serious issues, who are average on offense.
HOU Texans - Tie
Double Result
91 WIN
@36.00
Lose
-91
While Houston's first-half record in recent seasons is a mixed bag, I feel they are improved this season, especially defensively. They will enjoy the underdog tag today. Look for a strong start, only before the class of this Seattle team comes back in the second half, fueled by a big vocal crowd, to force OT.
HOU Texans by 1 6
Winning Margin
50 WIN
@4.60
Lose
-50
When an underdog wins in the NFL, this is easily the most common winning margin. And with little between these two teams, I like a narrow margin as the end result. Price is a tad high here.
01:08 SEA Mariners @ TOR Blue Jays
SEA Mariners
Money Line
70 WIN
@2.05
Lose
-70
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than evens here. Seattle has the superior pitching rotation for this game, and that could well prove to be the difference here.
SEA Mariners 1.50
Run Line
498 WIN
@1.50
Win
249
I feel Seattle will come up big when it matters most here in this Game 7. The Blue Jays' success this season has been largely due to a hot batting lineup. However, Seattle's pitching rotation for this game is world-class. The hosts will have their work cut out.
00:00 TB Buccaneers @ DET Lions
TB Buccaneers
Money Line
53 WIN
@3.65
Lose
-53
I feel this is a decent matchup for Tampa Bay to be right in this game. Defensively, Detroit is ordinary, and the high-risk approach the head coach takes is always dangerous. Price too high here.
Under 52.50
Game Totals
53 WIN
@1.91
Win
48
This is one of the most heavily backed game total overs of the season. I will go the other way as I like what both teams bring defensively, especially the visitors.
DET Lions - Tie
Double Result
50 WIN
@36.00
Lose
-50
The Lions have a decent first-half record at home this season and in recent seasons. But I feel there is enough class in this Tampa team this season, and that they can exploit Detroit's average defense, come back in the 2nd half, and force OT.
TB Buccaneers by 1 6
Winning Margin
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
When a big underdog wins in the NFL, this is by far and away the most common winning margin: the 1-6 margin. 5.50 is a decent price. I feel Tampa matches up well versus Detroit here.
Subtotal-326
20 October 2025
01:20 ATL Falcons @ SF 49ers
ATL Falcons
Money Line
130 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-130
The 49ers have been hit hard by injuries and are without 6-7 key players for this game. Not so for Atlanta, who have most of their key players in. Price a tad high here at 2.10.
ATL Falcons - SF 49ers
Double Result
90 WIN
@5.25
Lose
-90
By taking this option/selection as well as Atlanta to win the game, in effect I am taking Atlanta to be leading at halftime or full-time. For me, this is very realistic on form and based on the players both teams have available.
01:03 SEA Mariners @ TOR Blue Jays
SEA Mariners
Money Line
73 WIN
@2.05
Lose
-73
The last thing Seattle wants is a Game 7. They will be leaving no stone unturned to make sure that does not happen. Their pitching lineup for this game is superior to Toronto's, and that could be the difference here.
SEA Mariners 1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@1.50
Lose
-50
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. Seattle has the better pitching lineup for this crucial game. In a game of this magnitude, this could be the difference.
Subtotal-343
19 October 2025
21:25 WAS Commanders @ DAL Cowboys
WAS Commanders
Money Line
70 WIN
@2.05
Lose
-70
Don't really agree with this price. Washington has a pretty potent offense that can hurt a Dallas defense that is pretty ordinary. Dallas is conceding an average of 31 points per game this season, which is one of the worst points per game in the entire league.
21:05 IND Colts @ LA Chargers
IND Colts
Money Line
72 WIN
@2.10
Win
79
The Colts are greatly improved this season, and I don't think bookmakers have factored that in enough yet. They have a nicely balanced offense and a decent defense. This price should be no bigger than evens here.
IND Colts - LA Chargers
Double Result
50 WIN
@4.80
Lose
-50
By taking this selection, as well as the Colts to win the game, in effect I am taking the Colts to be leading at either halftime or full-time. This is very realistic. The Colts are a nicely balanced team and are strong in key positions and areas.
21:05 NY Giants @ DEN Broncos
NY Giants
Money Line
50 WIN
@4.40
Lose
-50
Worth a small go at this price. The Giants will be desperate and hungry here. Big difference between a 2-5 record and a 3-4 record, which they are fighting for today. Price a tad high here at 4.40.
20:07 EDM Oilers @ DET Red Wings
EDM Oilers
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.74
Lose
-50
I will take on a pretty flawed Red Wings team here, who are unlikely to feature at the business end of the season. The Oilers are a pretty complete team and should have too much firepower here.
18:00 LV Raiders @ KC Chiefs
LV Raiders
Money Line
53 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-53
Too big of a price here. The Chiefs have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed at low odds here, very low odds in fact. Price too high here at 7.50.
LV Raiders - KC Chiefs
Double Result
57 WIN
@5.25
Lose
-57
By taking this selection as well as the Raiders to win the game, in effect, I am taking the Raiders to be ahead at halftime or full time. This is a better chance than the prices suggest, so getting value odds.
Subtotal-251
18 October 2025
21:30 Stephen Bunting vs Ryan Joyce
Ryan Joyce 1.50
Handicap 2-way
196 WIN
@2.10
Win
216
Joyce will provide a tough test for Bunting here. Joyce has a decent all-round game with no glaring weaknesses. Bunting hasn't been firing on all cylinders of late.
21:00 Josh Rock vs Ricky Evans
Ricky Evans
Win Match 2-way
120 WIN
@4.40
Win
408
Evans played one of his most impressive matches for some time yesterday. He's very much a confidence player, and fresh off that epic win, I like him to continue his momentum here.
20:37 EDM Oilers @ NJ Devils
NJ Devils
Money Line
53 WIN
@1.95
Win
50
The Oilers, like most teams, have had their struggles on the road in recent seasons. The Devils at home is one of the top 10 toughest assignments in the league. Price a tad high here.
20:07 NY Islanders @ OTT Senators
NY Islanders
Money Line
320 WIN
@2.25
Win
400
Given the standings, the Islanders will be desperate here and may well want this win more. They have enough quality players to be a force this season and right the ship. Price a tad high here.
NY Islanders 1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
I see a competitive performance from the Islanders as highly likely here today. Given the standings, they will be desperate. This price is a little high here.
Subtotal1099
17 October 2025
19:45 Gloucester v Bristol Bears
Bristol Bears
To Win
53 WIN
@2.87
Win
99
The attacking game the Bears have gives them a decent chance here at nice odds. The Hots have the edge in forward play, but in the backs, the Bears have the edge. In a coin toss game, I will take the 2.87 odds.
Bristol Bears 5.50
Handicap
70 WIN
@1.91
Win
64
The Bears have the attacking game to test and hurt the home side, who are only average defensively. This line is a tad high here.
19:45 Newcastle Red Bulls v Northampton Saints
Newcastle Red Bulls
To Win
60 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-60
At least 70% of Newcastle's decent performances in recent seasons have occurred in their home games. This price is a tad high here.
Newcastle Red Bulls 17.50
Handicap
90 WIN
@1.91
Win
82
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here at this generous line at 17.5.
18:30 Daryl Gurney vs Christian Kist
Christian Kist
Win Match 2-way
190 WIN
@2.90
Win
361
Gurney has shown me enough flaws in the last 6 months to be opposed here at low odds versus a capable enough player in Kist. The price is too high here.
14:00 Ryan Joyce vs Justin Hood
Justin Hood
Win Match 2-way
150 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-150
Generous price here. Joyce is too inconsistent to be trusted at such low odds here. Hood often has a scoring average around the 87-95 mark and is solid on his doubles. If Joyce is slightly off his game, then Hood has every chance here.
01:33 TOR Blue Jays @ SEA Mariners
SEA Mariners
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
After being embarrassed yesterday at home, I expect a strong response here from a quality Seattle team. The hosts get a reasonably favorable starting pitcher matchup here as well.
Subtotal346
16 October 2025
23:08 MIL Brewers @ LA Dodgers
MIL Brewers
Money Line
60 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-60
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection, which I will follow here at what is a decent and attractive price. It should be no bigger than 2.45 here.
Subtotal-60
15 October 2025
18:00 Besiktas vs Chemnitz 99
Chemnitz 99
Money Line
90 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-90
Don't really agree with this price. Given the likely starting five for the visitors, there is enough player quality in the group to be a solid chance here. 4.00 should be no bigger than 3.80 here.
17:30 AEK vs Szolnoki Olaj
Szolnoki Olaj
Money Line
57 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-57
Not without a chance at big odds. The visitors have the offense to test and trouble the hosts, who are nothing special defensively. Price is a tad high here.
01:08 LA Dodgers @ MIL Brewers
MIL Brewers
Money Line
54 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-54
In the context of this series, this is a bigger game for the Brewers, so perhaps they will want the win more here. Reasonably favorable starting pitcher matchup here for the home side as well.
00:07 SEA Kraken @ MTL Canadiens
MTL Canadiens
Money Line
70 WIN
@1.67
Win
47
Seattle has shown me enough flaws both this season and last season to be opposed here. Against a Montreal team that has plenty of strike power attacking-wise and is solid defensively. Small stakes here though as low confidence on this one.
Subtotal-154
14 October 2025
01:08 LA Dodgers @ MIL Brewers
MIL Brewers
Money Line
71 WIN
@2.30
Lose
-71
Preparation for the home side here has been decent, and they get a reasonably favorable starting pitcher matchup here. This 2.30 price should be no bigger than 2.25 here.
00:37 STL Blues @ VAN Canucks
STL Blues
Money Line
90 WIN
@2.10
Win
99
The Canucks have shown me enough flaws this season and last season to oppose them here. St. Louis has fashioned a decent road record in recent seasons. 2.10 should be no bigger than 2.05 here.
00:15 BUF Bills @ ATL Falcons
ATL Falcons
Money Line
60 WIN
@2.75
Win
105
The Falcons put a large emphasis on banking their home games and will be desperate here given their record this season. Like most teams, Buffalo finds road games difficult. Last season, they had 4 losses in the regular season; all 4 were on the road. Price a tad high here.
ATL Falcons - BUF Bills
Double Result
59 WIN
@4.75
Lose
-59
By taking this selection as well as Atlanta to win the game, in effect I am taking Atlanta to be ahead at either halftime or full-time. I see this as realistic. Buffalo had 4 losses in the regular season last season. All 4 were on the road. Atlanta will be pumped for this home game under the bright lights of MNF.
Subtotal74
13 October 2025
22:03 SEA Mariners @ TOR Blue Jays
TOR Blue Jays -1.50
Run Line
60 WIN
@2.70
Lose
-60
I like the starting pitcher matchup here for the home team. And the good deal of sharp money around for this selection indicates a big performance from the home side is likely.
19:07 DET Red Wings @ TOR Maple Leafs
DET Red Wings
Money Line
190 WIN
@2.50
Win
285
This is a well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here at what is a decent enough price. Team news is not great for the home team as well.
18:07 NSH Predators @ OTT Senators
NSH Predators
Money Line
230 WIN
@2.50
Win
345
Ottawa has shown me enough flaws this season and in recent seasons, particularly defensively, to be opposed at low odds here. Nashville are a solid all-round team with no glaring weaknesses. Price too high here.
18:07 WPG Jets @ NY Islanders
NY Islanders
Money Line
300 WIN
@2.05
Lose
-300
Don't really agree with this price. The Islanders are off to a poor start but are a quality team at home. They will be desperate here and may well want this win more today.
01:20 DET Lions @ KC Chiefs
DET Lions
Money Line
60 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-60
I don't think the Chiefs' defense will cope well with the high-octane offense Detroit has. Detroit's offense is proven this season and last season. This season, in their 5 games played, they are averaging 35 points per game. This price is a tad high here.
DET Lions - KC Chiefs
Double Result
54 WIN
@5.25
Lose
-54
By taking this option, as well as Detroit to win, in effect I am taking the Lions to be ahead at either halftime or full-time. For me, this is realistic. Detroit has the offense to hurt the Chiefs. The visitors are averaging 35 points scored this season, and that number was high again last season.
01:03 SEA Mariners @ TOR Blue Jays
SEA Mariners
Money Line
99 WIN
@2.50
Win
148
Toronto has built most of their recent success on a hot batting lineup. Runs have been coming aplenty for the Blue Jays. However, I have a tough time seeing that happen again today given the quality of Seattle's likely pitching rotation for this game. Price a tad high here.
Subtotal304
12 October 2025
21:05 TEN Titans @ LV Raiders
Under 41.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.92
Win
46
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection, which I will follow here. The Titans rank poorly in most offense stat categories, and the Raiders aren't much better. Price and line are a tad generous here.
20:15 Luke Humphries vs Luke Littler
Luke Humphries
Win Match 2-way
60 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-60
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.65 here, so getting value odds. I think even the most staunch Littler fans would admit this will be a tough examination for the youngster today.
Luke Humphries 1.50
Handicap 2-way
140 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-140
There is little between these two players in my view. Humphries has the mental side in a decent space right now and has plenty of self-confidence, which is half the battle already won. In a tight matchup, it makes sense to take the +1.5 headstart.
18:00 LA Rams @ BAL Ravens
BAL Ravens
Money Line
55 WIN
@4.20
Lose
-55
Too big of a price here given how desperate the Ravens will be for this home game. By taking this selection as well as the halftime/fulltime double of Ravens/Rams, in effect, I am taking the Ravens to be ahead at either halftime or fulltime. For me, this is realistic enough.
BAL Ravens - LA Rams
Double Result
90 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-90
The Ravens will be fired up with most people writing them off for this game due to some key personnel changes. In recent seasons, they do have a decent first-half home record, so I fancy them to start well. Only for the class of the superior team in the Rams to take over in the second half.
15:30 Bayern Munich vs Brose Bamberg
Brose Bamberg
Money Line
70 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-70
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here at what is a decent price. Personally, I think this price should be no bigger than 7.50 here.
11:15 Barcelona vs Forca Lleida
Forca Lleida
Money Line
61 WIN
@6.25
Win
320
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 5-1 here, so getting value odds. The visitors have a solid offense and an adequate defense to be a decent chance here.
06:05 PNG PM XIII v Australia PM XIII
PNG PM XIII
To Win
120 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-120
I prefer PNG's preparation for this game. Their forward pack is sound, and they have enough quality backs to be a solid chance in this match at home. They are far more likely to turn in a decent performance at home.
PNG PM XIII 26.50
Handicap (2-way)
230 WIN
@1.91
Win
209
Given the teams that have been named and the preparation of both teams, I feel that PNG are well placed to be competitive in this game. Their preparation is superior, and they have enough quality players.
Under 59.50
Total Points
70 WIN
@2.00
Win
70
In the heat this game will be played in, handling errors often occur at a greater rate than if the game was played in lower temperatures. Australia, in particular, are sound defensively also.
01:08 CHI Cubs @ MIL Brewers
CHI Cubs
Money Line
70 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-70
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection. Plus, the visitors get a reasonably favorable starting pitcher matchup here. Odds too generous to refuse.
Subtotal40
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
