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20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

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surfsup's Tips History

06 December 2025

02:40 DAL Mavericks @ OKC Thunder

DAL Mavericks

Money Line

53 WIN

@9.00

Lose

-53

Not without a chance at big odds. Complacency could be a factor for the hosts here given the heavy favourite tag. Dallas has enough high-quality players to be in the fight. Price a tad high here.

DAL Mavericks 15.50

Pointspread

70 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-70

To mix it with OKC right now is a difficult task. However, Dallas has enough high-quality players to do this. Perhaps there will be some complacency from the hosts, given their heavy favorite status for this game.

00:40 DEN Nuggets @ ATL Hawks

ATL Hawks

Money Line

70 WIN

@2.60

Lose

-70

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.50 here, so you're getting value odds. The Hawks have the offense at home to hurt a Denver defense that, while decent, is much more likely to put in an average performance on the road.

00:10 MIA Heat @ ORL Magic

MIA Heat

Money Line

56 WIN

@3.00

Lose

-56

The Heat will be keen to bounce back after losing their last road game. The signs have been largely positive, with a high level of play at times. They have a better chance today than this price suggests.

05 December 2025

22:00 New Zealand vs West Indies

Draw

Win Match

140 WIN

@4.50

Win

490

Looks like rain will be around for at least two out of the five days. This gives the draw a solid chance. Plus, NZ in Test cricket are not as aggressive with their batting compared to the likes of Australia or England. Draw has a solid chance here.

West Indies

Draw No Bet

60 WIN

@7.00

Push

There is some rain in the long-range forecast for two out of the five days. This always gives the big underdog a better chance, especially if they win the toss. Price is a tad high here.

20:00 Agen v Provence

Agen

To Win

90 WIN

@1.40

Open

I have more faith and trust in Agen at home than Provence away at a tough venue. Agen has more class players, and that should be telling in the end result.

18:30 Beziers v Soyaux Angouleme

Beziers

To Win

170 WIN

@1.30

Open

The home side should have too much class here. With the likely teams, the hosts should win the forward battle, which will set the foundation for the win.

18:30 Biarritz v Valence Romans

Valence Romans

To Win

103 WIN

@3.50

Open

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.35 here, so getting value odds. I think Valence Romans can win the forward battle and have enough class in their backs.

Valence Romans 8.50

Handicap

300 WIN

@1.80

Open

The home side have recent shaky form and are lacking high-quality players. Valence will see this game as a realistic win. Line a tad high here.

18:30 Nevers v Dax

Dax

To Win

57 WIN

@8.00

Open

Worth a small go at this price. The hosts have the edge in forward play. However, I feel Dax can be competitive in the backs, which gives them an outside chance here.

18:00 Carcassonne v Vannes

Carcassonne

To Win

52 WIN

@5.00

Open

I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection, which I will follow here at this nice price. The price is about right, though, so small stakes.

08:35 Macarthur FC v Melbourne Victory

Macarthur FC

82 WIN

@2.55

Lose

-82

I will take on a flawed Victory team here, who came in with plenty of billing and hype this season but for the most part have failed to deliver. Away they have been poor as well, and this is a tough venue tonight.

No (BTTS)

Both Teams to Score

53 WIN

@2.38

Win

Attacking-wise, the Victory have been pretty inept this season and should struggle to score against a pretty sound defensive home team. Price is a tad high here.

Macarthur FC & Yes (Result + BTTS)

Result and BTTS

57 WIN

@4.33

Lose

-57

At home, Macarthur will be tough to beat against what is a pretty flawed Victory team this season. The Victory's strength, if they have one, is their attacking game, so maybe they can rattle one or two home

Macarthur FC - Macarthur FC

Half Time / Full Time

60 WIN

@4.00

Lose

-60

The Victory have a poor first-half record this season and a poor win-loss record in general. The home side hold all the cards here for a commanding win. Price is a tad high here.

Macarthur FC #4-0

50 WIN

@67.00

Lose

-50

Generous price here. Given the flaws the away side has shown this season, a big margin of victory is quite likely for Macarthur. Price is too high here.

02:07 SEA Kraken @ EDM Oilers

SEA Kraken

Money Line

53 WIN

@2.75

Lose

-53

Too big of a price here and I don't really agree with it. Seattle have proven themselves as a road team in recent seasons. The Oilers continue to have issues defensively and in the goalie position.

SEA Kraken 1.50

Puck Line

50 WIN

@1.70

Lose

-50

Seattle have shown me enough on the road in recent seasons to have me think they will be competitive here against an Oilers team with issues at goalie and defensively.

01:15 DAL Cowboys @ DET Lions

DAL Cowboys

Money Line

160 WIN

@2.45

Lose

-160

The Lions have shown me enough flaws this season and lately to be opposed here. Defensively, they have issues, and they have a coach whose play calling is very much gambling by nature and often not the percentage play or a smart call. Price is a tad high here.

DAL Cowboys - DET Lions

Double Result

133 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-133

By taking this selection as well as Dallas to win the game, in effect I am taking Dallas to be leading at halftime or at full time. For me, based on recent form, this is very realistic.

00:40 LA Lakers @ TOR Raptors

TOR Raptors

Money Line

97 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-97

Toronto have not been up to much recently, with mixed results. This is what makes them dangerous for this home game. They have been decent at home this season, and surely at a home game versus one of the glamour teams of the league they will really be up for it.

00:07 TOR Maple Leafs @ CAR Hurricanes

TOR Maple Leafs

Money Line

90 WIN

@2.75

Win

158

Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. The Leafs have a potent and in-form attacking game. Price a tad high here.

TOR Maple Leafs 1.50

Puck Line

50 WIN

@1.73

Win

Sharp money is coming hard for this selection, which I will follow here at what is a solid enough price. The Leafs have the attacking game to hurt Carolina today.

04 December 2025

01:40 MIA Heat @ DAL Mavericks

DAL Mavericks

Money Line

133 WIN

@2.70

Win

226

Miami has 7 losses this season. Five of these have occurred in their road games. Last season it was more of the same, with a 17-23 road record. Dallas is a solid home team and a test today. Price is a little generous here.

00:10 SA Spurs @ ORL Magic

SA Spurs

Money Line

130 WIN

@3.70

Win

351

The Magic have had trouble of late sustaining a high level of play for long periods of their matches. The Spurs have an in-form offense that can hurt them today. Price is a tad high here.

03 December 2025

02:07 MIN Wild @ EDM Oilers

MIN Wild

Money Line

83 WIN

@2.25

Win

104

Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here at what is a decent enough price. For me, the Wild are at least a 45% chance of winning this game, so value odds at 2.25.

01:10 MEM Grizzlies @ SA Spurs

SA Spurs

Money Line

52 WIN

@1.53

Win

I prefer the home side's preparation for this game. Memphis has been playing well for patches of matches only. This will be unlikely to be enough to get the win today.

00:37 TOR Maple Leafs @ FLA Panthers

TOR Maple Leafs

Money Line

91 WIN

@2.40

Win

127

Florida has shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed here at low odds. The Leafs have a reasonably in-form offense and attacking game and can hurt the home side here. Price a tad high.

02 December 2025

09:10 Perth Scorchers W vs Melbourne Renegades W T20

Perth Scorchers W

Win Match

52 WIN

@1.73

Win

For Perth, they place a large emphasis on banking their home games at what is a tough venue for visiting teams. Perth must bank their home games in particular to gain a playoff spot. The home side have 5??"6 world-class players and, at home, should have too much class here. Price about right though, so small stakes.

03:10 PHX Suns @ LA Lakers

PHX Suns

Money Line

67 WIN

@2.75

Win

117

Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. The Suns' offense is in form and firing right now. Price is too big here.

PHX Suns 4.50

Pointspread

50 WIN

@1.95

Win

I prefer the Suns' preparation for this game. The Lakers played a taxing game yesterday. The Suns did not play and have an in-form offense right now.

02:10 DAL Mavericks @ DEN Nuggets

DEN Nuggets

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.20

Lose

-50

I will take on a pretty flawed Dallas team, who has not had an ideal preparation for this game. Denver wins their home games at a very high percentage and should have too much class here.

02:10 HOU Rockets @ UTA Jazz

UTA Jazz

Money Line

57 WIN

@6.00

Win

285

The Jazz are a proud and capable enough home team. After being embarrassed yesterday versus the same opposition and venue, I expect a strong response here.

01:15 NY Giants @ NE Patriots

NE Patriots

Money Line

53 WIN

@1.29

Win

I will take on a pretty flawed Giants team here, who have issues on both offense and defense that won't be resolving themselves anytime soon. The class of the superior team at home should prevail here.

NY Giants - NE Patriots

Double Result

50 WIN

@4.90

Lose

-50

The Giants have a solid first-half record in recent seasons when they have been big underdogs. Giants to lead at the break, only for the superior team at home to take over in the second half.

Stefon Diggs (NE Patriots)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

65 WIN

@2.10

Lose

-65

The Giants' defense is pretty ordinary, and that is being kind. Diggs, being a WR, should have every chance to get a TD given the Giants' pass defense and its issues.

00:40 CHA Hornets @ BKN Nets

BKN Nets

Money Line

50 WIN

@2.70

Win

I will take on a pretty flawed Hornets team here at low odds. At least 60% of the Nets' decent performances in recent seasons have occurred in their home games. Price is a tad high here.

00:40 CHI Bulls @ ORL Magic

CHI Bulls

Money Line

53 WIN

@4.20

Lose

-53

The Bulls have the offense to hurt a Magic defense that is nothing special. With most of their key players in strong form, the likely winner is the Bulls here. The price is too big.

CHI Bulls 8.50

Pointspread

50 WIN

@1.95

Win

The Bulls' offense is decent right now. This can test and trouble a Magic defense that is nothing special. Team news is OK for the Bulls, as is their preparation.

00:40 LA Clippers @ MIA Heat

LA Clippers

Money Line

60 WIN

@3.10

Lose

-60

Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here at what is a decent enough price. Team news and preparation both OK for the Clippers.

00:10 ATL Hawks @ DET Pistons

ATL Hawks

Money Line

50 WIN

@4.30

Lose

-50

The Hawks have an in-form offense. They have been racking up the points. This spells trouble today for an average Detroit defense. Price too high here.

00:10 CLE Cavaliers @ IND Pacers

IND Pacers

Money Line

59 WIN

@2.70

Lose

-59

Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here at what is an attractive enough price. Like most teams, the Cavs are more vulnerable on the road.

00:10 MIL Bucks @ WAS Wizards

WAS Wizards

Money Line

51 WIN

@4.60

Win

184

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 4.40, so getting value odds. At home, at least 60% of the Wizards' decent performances have occurred in recent seasons.

01 December 2025

08:10 Hobart Hurricanes W vs Melbourne Stars W T20

Melbourne Stars W

Win Match

60 WIN

@2.20

Lose

-60

Hobart has shown me enough flaws, especially with their bowling, to be opposed at low odds here against a capable enough Stars team who have a reasonably strong batting lineup.

06:00 New Zealand vs Australia

New Zealand

Money Line

77 WIN

@2.05

Lose

-77

There is something special about this NZ team. They are young, full of confidence, and well coached/managed. If both teams had their NBA players, NZ would be in a world of trouble. Of course that is not the case. A strong performance at home is likely here.

02:40 NO Pelicans @ LA Lakers

NO Pelicans

Money Line

195 WIN

@9.00

Lose

-195

New Orleans' strength is their offense. For the Lakers, their defense is average and will likely prevent them from going deep in the playoffs. Solid likely roster for the visitors in this game.

02:10 MEM Grizzlies @ SAC Kings

SAC Kings

Money Line

300 WIN

@2.37

Lose

-300

I prefer the home side's preparation for this game. The Kings generally shoot the ball better at home. This spells trouble for an ordinary Memphis defense here.

01:20 DEN Broncos @ WAS Commanders

WAS Commanders

Money Line

51 WIN

@3.40

Lose

-51

Both of Denver's losses this season have been on the road. Washington has had a decent preparation for this game and has most of their key players available. A competitive performance is likely here at home.

WAS Commanders - Tie

Double Result

50 WIN

@41.00

Lose

-50

For whatever reasons this season, Denver, despite having an impressive win-loss record, does not have a great first-half record. Washington at home tends to lead at halftime, only for the class of this Denver team to come back in the second half and force OT.

Courtland Sutton (DEN Broncos)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

54 WIN

@2.50

Win

This is a well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here at what is a decent enough price. It should be no bigger than 2.45 here.

DEN Broncos by 1 6

Winning Margin

50 WIN

@3.60

Win

130

This is easily the most common winning margin in NFL history here. It's a tight matchup. A close finish is likely. The price is a tad high at 3.60 here.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.

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