surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
2
Estimated Prizes
this month
£15
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
All sports
19 April 2025
17:30 Saracens v Gloucester
Gloucester
To Win
53 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-53
Too big of a price here. Saracens have been too inconsistent to be trusted here at such low odds. I will gladly go the other way at attractive odds.
15:05 Harlequins v Sale Sharks
Sale Sharks
To Win
50 WIN
@2.50
Win
75
Sale will see this game as a realistic win. It's a tight matchup where the result could easily go either way. 2.50 odds in such a toss-up game? Yes, please.
15:00 Exeter Chiefs v Bath
Exeter Chiefs
To Win
70 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-70
dont really agree with this price it should be no bigger than 4.00 here, getting much better than that exeter are a well drilled outfit and i sense they will be up for this one.
Exeter Chiefs 11.50
Handicap
201 WIN
@1.91
Win
183
I have this game a closer call than the bookies. Both teams offer plenty attacking-wise. The visitors have the attack to test and trouble a Bath defense that is nothing special.
13:30 Leigh v Warrington
Warrington
To Win
130 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-130
Generous price here for a quality side. I see this game as very close to 50-50 as to who wins, so it makes sense to take the 2.20 price, which should be no bigger than evens here in my opinion.
10:35 Western Force v Hurricanes
Western Force
To Win
130 WIN
@2.62
Push
0
The Force have won 85% of their home games in the past two seasons. The Hurricanes are a pretty flawed team this season, and even with some key players back for this game, this should be a bridge too far.
08:30 New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos
New Zealand Warriors
To Win
60 WIN
@3.20
Push
0
Fresh off a truly embarrassing loss and back at their home fortress, I expect a strong response from the Warriors. Brisbane is nothing special defensively, and that's an area the Warriors can exploit.
08:05 Chiefs v Highlanders
Chiefs
To Win
80 WIN
@1.14
Win
11
I will take on a pretty flawed Highlanders team here. They lack cohesion in their attack, and their forward pack is nothing better than solid. The Chiefs should have too much firepower here at home.
05:35 Moana Pasifika v Brumbies
Moana Pasifika
To Win
120 WIN
@3.40
Lose
-120
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.10 here, getting much better than that. The Brumbies have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed at low odds here.
Moana Pasifika 8.50
Handicap
200 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-200
Big game in the context of the home side's season. I like the team they have named. They have the edge in back play with the Brumbies having the edge in forward play. It's a tight matchup, so it makes sense to take this generous headstart.
03:05 Fijian Drua v Waratahs
Waratahs
To Win
60 WIN
@2.88
Lose
-60
I have this game priced quite differently to the bookies. I would have NSW no bigger than 2.30 here. The Fiji side can be quite brilliant at times but also very poor at other times. I will take the slightly more consistent team here.
Subtotal-364
18 April 2025
17:30 Leeds v Huddersfield
Huddersfield
To Win
110 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-110
Some minor value at this price. Personally, I think it should be no bigger than 9-1 here, which is where several bookies have it. Leeds are nothing special this season, and if they have an off day, this is not that unlikely.
Huddersfield 23.50
Handicap (2-way)
300 WIN
@2.00
Win
300
I am not a believer in Leeds this season in terms of being a legit contender for the title. They have shown me enough flaws in recent seasons and are a solid lay at very low odds today.
15:00 Wigan v St Helens
St Helens
To Win
60 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-60
It's going to take a quality side to beat Wigan this season, not just for the title but also week to week. I feel Saints offer enough, especially attacking-wise, to be right in this contest. Price a tad high at 3.75.
12:30 Hull FC v Hull KR
Hull FC
To Win
68 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-68
Some games you know a team will really be up for. This is one of those for Hull FC against their strongest rival in the Super League. Attacking-wise, they can test and trouble Hull KR and are better than a puncher's chance here.
08:05 Crusaders v Blues
Crusaders
To Win
77 WIN
@1.40
Win
31
Team news is more favourable for the home side here. The Blues are the more flawed team right now. I think the Crusaders will win the forward battle, which will set the foundation for the win.
Subtotal93
17 April 2025
10:50 Manly Sea Eagles v St George/Illawarra Dragons
Manly Sea Eagles
To Win
50 WIN
@1.57
Lose
-50
The Dragons have been a poor away team in recent seasons. Their road record makes very grim reading. The home team has won 9 out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Price a tad high here.
00:07 ANA Ducks @ WIN Jets
WIN Jets
Money Line
60 WIN
@1.33
Win
20
Close to a full-strength player lineup for the Jets for this game. The Jets are among the top few home teams in the league this season for win percentage and should have too much for a pretty flawed Ducks team.
Subtotal-30
16 April 2025
00:07 CHI Blackhawks @ OTT Senators
OTT Senators
Money Line
72 WIN
@1.40
Lose
-72
I prefer Ottawa's preparation for this game. They have been based at home, so no travel, and did not play yesterday. Chicago did play yesterday, and it was a taxing game. They have had a fair amount of travel recently. Price about right at 1.40 though, unfortunately.
Subtotal-72
15 April 2025
03:07 SJ Sharks @ VAN Canucks
VAN Canucks
Money Line
78 WIN
@1.31
Win
24
I like the amount of sharp money around for the Canucks for this game. Plus, the home side has had far better preparation for this game. Price is a tad high here at 1.31.
Subtotal24
13 April 2025
22:07 TOR Maple Leafs @ CAR Hurricanes
TOR Maple Leafs
Money Line
80 WIN
@2.85
Win
148
Too much value here to pass up or turn down. This price should be no bigger than 2.70 here. With a 23-13 road record, that ranks the Leafs in the top 10 road records in the league. Carolina have lost 4 out of their last 5 games.
18:10 CHI Bulls @ PHI 76ers
PHI 76ers
Money Line
120 WIN
@4.60
Lose
-120
The Bulls are exactly 20-20 on the road this season, which on the surface is a solid enough road record. However, a high number of those 20 road losses have been to mid-tier or low-tier teams. These are some of their road losses this season: New Orleans, Brooklyn, Orlando, Atlanta, Washington, Detroit, and Portland. The Washington loss was by 18 points.
18:10 NY Knicks @ BKN Nets
BKN Nets
Money Line
100 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-100
I think this will be a game the Nets will really be up for. For a few reasons: last game of the season and it's at home, last time playing in front of fans, family, and friends. Plus, the Knicks are arguably the Nets' biggest rival team.
18:07 PHI Flyers @ OTT Senators
PHI Flyers
Money Line
80 WIN
@3.10
Lose
-80
The price is about correct here, so small stakes. The Flyers have won 5 out of their last 6 games. Attacking-wise, they are clicking nicely right now. This is a winnable game versus pretty flawed opposition.
15:00 Huddersfield v Catalan Dragons
Huddersfield 12.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Generous line for what will be a desperate team who is playing at home. Like most teams, the Dragons are more vulnerable on the road. 10.5 is a more accurate line here.
07:05 Newcastle Knights v Wests Tigers
Wests Tigers 1.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
Newcastle lack cohesion in their attacking game. The Tigers have the edge in that area and will see this game as a realistic win. Small stakes only here. The prices are about right.
03:07 MIN Wild @ VAN Canucks
MIN Wild
Money Line
104 WIN
@1.83
Win
86
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection. The Canucks are only slightly above .500 at home this season, while the Wild rank in the top 10 teams in the NHL for road win %. Price is a tad high here.
MIN Wild -1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@3.05
Lose
-50
Don't really agree with this price. The Canucks have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed here against a more than capable Wild team, who were disappointing in their last game. Expect a strong response here.
Subtotal-116
12 April 2025
20:00 Castleford v Leigh
Leigh
To Win
50 WIN
@1.36
Win
18
Leigh are the superior team here and should get the job done against pretty flawed opposition. Price about right though, so small stakes.
17:30 Warrington v Hull FC
Hull FC
To Win
50 WIN
@4.33
Win
166
Worth a small go at these odds. 4.33 should be no bigger than 4.20 here in my opinion. I like the team named by the visitors. A strong performance is likely.
Hull FC 14.50
Handicap (2-way)
100 WIN
@1.80
Win
80
Dangerous game for Warrington. Hull have picked up their act of late and have named a reasonably strong team here. Line a tad high in my opinion.
10:35 Reds v Brumbies
Reds
To Win
80 WIN
@1.60
Lose
-80
I have more faith in the Reds at home, where they rarely lose. Brumbies have shaky recent form, and this should be a bridge too far. Price about right though, so small stakes.
08:05 Highlanders v Fijian Drua
Fijian Drua 9.50
Handicap
67 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-67
The Fiji side are fresh off a truly embarrassing performance, their worst of the season. I expect a strong response here from a capable enough team. They will enjoy the dry conditions under the roof.
05:35 Blues v Moana Pasifika
Moana Pasifika
To Win
53 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-53
With dry weather and being a rare day game, the attacking games of both teams will go a long way to deciding the winner. I feel the visitors can match or better the Blues in that department. Price too big here.
Moana Pasifika 13.50
Handicap
92 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-92
I can make a strong argument that Moana Pasifika have the more cohesive attacking game right now, out of these two teams. Granted, the advantage defensively is with the Blues. But being a day game and with fine weather, the attacking game is crucial here. Line a tad high.
Subtotal-28
11 April 2025
15:00 Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders T20
Chennai Super Kings
Win Match
70 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-70
Generous price here, and I don't really agree with it. I give the home side no less than a 52% chance of victory. So, getting value odds here at evens.
10:35 Waratahs v Chiefs
Waratahs
To Win
70 WIN
@5.00
Win
280
Personally, I think this price should be no bigger than 4.50 here, so getting value odds. An even forward battle looks likely. Anytime this is the case, the underdog is a decent chance.
Waratahs 12.50
Handicap
108 WIN
@1.91
Win
98
NSW have been decent at home this season. I think they can be competitive in the forward battle tonight at home. It's a pretty even forward battle. Chiefs have the edge in back play, but that's all it is, an edge.
08:05 Hurricanes v Crusaders
Crusaders
To Win
50 WIN
@2.25
Win
62
Don't really agree with this price. Various basic errors have been the Hurricanes' undoing this season. These are not easily fixed. A decent Crusaders team will punish them.
Crusaders 2.50
Handicap
70 WIN
@1.91
Win
64
The Hurricanes have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed here versus a quality Crusaders team. Basic errors have cost the Hurricanes this season. A repeat tonight and they should struggle.
Subtotal434
10 April 2025
02:10 POR Trail Blazers @ UTA Jazz
UTA Jazz
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.30
Win
138
The Blazers have 44 losses this season. A high number of these losses have been on the road, 26 to be exact. Utah has a solid offense to test and trouble a Portland defense that is pretty ordinary.
Subtotal138
09 April 2025
15:00 Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals T20
Rajasthan Royals
Win Match
68 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-68
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.00 here. For me, this game is very much 50-50, so it makes sense to take the 2.10 price.
Subtotal-68
08 April 2025
03:37 CAL Flames @ SJ Sharks
SJ Sharks
Money Line
80 WIN
@2.90
Lose
-80
Decent enough price for a capable enough home team. The Flames have 27 losses this season. 15 of those have been on the road. Their road record in recent seasons is mediocre.
00:37 STL Blues @ WIN Jets
STL Blues
Money Line
61 WIN
@2.65
Lose
-61
The Blues have won 12 games in a row, which ranks them as the hottest team in the league. With most of their key players in, a strong performance is likely again today. Price is a tad high here.
Subtotal-141
07 April 2025
01:40 MIL Bucks @ NO Pelicans
NO Pelicans
Money Line
56 WIN
@3.60
Lose
-56
I prefer New Orleans' preparation for this game. They did not play yesterday and have been based at home, so no travel. The Bucks did play yesterday, and it was a taxing game. They have had a fair amount of travel.
Subtotal-56
06 April 2025
23:10 SAC Kings @ CLE Cavaliers
CLE Cavaliers
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.22
Lose
-50
I will take on a pretty flawed Kings team here, against one of the most consistent teams in the league. Only 5 home losses all season, which is in the top 3 teams in the league for home win percentage.
20:40 TOR Raptors @ BKN Nets
BKN Nets
Money Line
70 WIN
@2.30
Lose
-70
Toronto has one of the worst road records in the league. 27 of their 50 losses have been on the road. The Nets at home is a tough assignment. Price a tad high here.
18:40 TOR Blue Jays @ NY Mets
TOR Blue Jays
Money Line
65 WIN
@2.15
Lose
-65
Toronto let victory slip yesterday after being in complete control. Look for a strong response today from a decent enough team. Favourable starting pitching matchup here for the visitors.
TOR Blue Jays 1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
Toronto have been impressive to start the season and get a favorable pitching matchup here. A tight game is on the cards, so it makes sense to take the +1.5.
18:35 LA Dodgers @ PHI Phillies
PHI Phillies
Money Line
57 WIN
@2.20
Win
68
35 of the Dodgers' 64 losses last season came on the road. Beating Philly at home is in the top 5 toughest assignments in MLB. Price too high here.
PHI Phillies 1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@1.67
Win
34
60-65% of the Dodgers' wins by big margins last season came when they were playing at home. On the road, they are more vulnerable, like most teams. Line and odds are too generous here.
18:35 MIA Marlins @ ATL Braves
MIA Marlins
Money Line
60 WIN
@2.38
Void
0
The Braves are now 1-8 to start the season. I will keep opposing them until they show signs of life. Right now, it's a real struggle for them.
MIA Marlins 1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@1.59
Void
0
The Braves have come with a big billing this season, but as of now, they have failed to deliver. Right now, they are struggling with a 1-8 record.
18:35 NY Yankees @ PIT Pirates
PIT Pirates
Money Line
53 WIN
@2.55
Win
82
Like most teams, the Yankees are more vulnerable on the road. Early sharp money coming for this selection is a positive sign in my view.
PIT Pirates 1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
This is a well-supported selection with the sharp money early, which I like and will follow here at a decent enough price. It should be no bigger than 1.91 here.
18:10 CHI Bulls @ CHA Hornets
CHA Hornets
Money Line
60 WIN
@4.60
Lose
-60
The Hornets have 19 wins this season. 12 of these have come at home. Of all the Bulls' losses this season and last season, a high number have come against low-tier or mid-tier teams.
14:30 Warrington v St Helens
Warrington
To Win
60 WIN
@1.80
Win
48
Warrington at home is a tough assignment. St Helens have not shown me enough high level of play this season, especially away, to think they will get the result here. Price a tad high at 1.80.
00:15 MIA Marlins @ ATL Braves
MIA Marlins 1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
Price is too low here, so small stakes. Big things are expected of the Braves this season, but right now they are struggling and have started 1-7. I will oppose the struggling team.
00:10 MIN Timberwolves @ PHI 76ers
PHI 76ers
Money Line
70 WIN
@9.50
Lose
-70
The Wolves are just 22-16 on the road. Last season, they had 26 losses; 15 were on the road. Despite not having many big names right now, there is enough talent in this Philly roster to be competitive here at home and possibly steal the win.
00:10 TOR Blue Jays @ NY Mets
TOR Blue Jays
Money Line
220 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-220
Don't really agree with this price. Favourable pitching matchup here for the visitors. This price should be no bigger than evens here, in my opinion. The Blue Jays have been impressive to start the season.
Subtotal-175
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
