surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
1
Estimated Prizes
this month
£5
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
15 June 2025
17:00 CHI Sky @ CON Sun
CHI Sky
Money Line
57 WIN
@2.00
Win
57
The Sky have several upcoming games on their schedule that are not a realistic win. This is not one of them versus a pretty flawed Sun team. The visitors will be putting a large emphasis on getting the win here. Price a tad high.
15:00 Ireland vs West Indies 3rd T20 Match
West Indies
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.28
Open
0
Where the Windies are strong is their batting lineup. The problem for Ireland is their bowling attack is nothing special at all. Look for the Windies batters to feast on Ireland's bowling attack. Price about right, so small stakes.
14:30 Wakefield v Leigh
Leigh
To Win
57 WIN
@2.00
Win
57
Bookies have the wrong favorite here, in my opinion. Wakefield's body of work this season does not warrant being the favorite against a capable Leigh team fighting very hard for every win for a playoff spot.
Leigh 1.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
I have Leigh as slight favorites in this game, so it certainly makes sense to take any plus handicap at 1.91 odds. Wakefield's body of work in recent seasons is inferior to Leigh's. Leigh badly needs this win.
07:05 South Sydney Rabbitohs v Canterbury Bulldogs
South Sydney Rabbitohs
To Win
140 WIN
@2.90
Lose
-140
Team news is not great for the Bulldogs here, while for Souths it's a near full-strength team. Plenty of class in Souths' backs, and that could be the difference. Price is a tad high here.
South Sydney Rabbitohs 7.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
i have this line at 5.5 here, getting two points more. team news is not great for the bulldogs and in the context of both teams seasons this is a bigger game for souths.
03:10 SF Giants @ LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers -1.50
Run Line
61 WIN
@2.15
Win
70
The Dodgers were embarrassed yesterday. They often respond strongly the next game when this is the case. Price too high here at 2.15.
01:00 FLA Panthers @ EDM Oilers
FLA Panthers
Money Line
80 WIN
@1.95
Win
76
This is a well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here. Florida has the superior goalie and is also stronger in several other key areas. Price is a tad high here at 1.95.
FLA Panthers 1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 1.37. The sharp money has been coming hard for Florida for this game, which I like and will follow here.
Under 6.50
Game Totals
57 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-57
Yet to have an under in this series so far. With so much at stake in this game, I expect both teams to step up defensively, especially Florida, who are a sound defensive team. Price a tad high here.
00:15 NY Yankees @ BOS Red Sox
NY Yankees -1.50
Run Line
80 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-80
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection, which I will follow at a solid price. Reasonably favorable pitching matchup here for the visitors as well.
Subtotal95
14 June 2025
18:00 LA Sparks @ MIN Lynx
LA Sparks
Money Line
60 WIN
@5.25
Lose
-60
generous price for a sparks team with two high quality players in their starting five. And perhaps they will be the more hungry of the two teams today given the standings. bottom line price should be no bigger than 4-1 here.
17:00 Leeds v Warrington
Warrington
To Win
50 WIN
@3.40
Lose
-50
If this price was 3.20, I would say that is fair enough. But at 3.40 here, there is some decent value. Warrington will be desperate for the win here as they are hunting a playoff spot.
Warrington 10.50
Handicap (2-way)
63 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-63
I will take on a pretty flawed Leeds team here, who have shown an inability to play well for long periods of matches. Line too high here at 10.5.
15:00 Huddersfield v Wigan
Huddersfield
To Win
70 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-70
Banking on some complacency from Wigan here. Most people believe this result will be a walk in the park for Wigan. Huddersfield will have other ideas at home with a solid player list likely for this game.
Huddersfield 20.50
Handicap (2-way)
130 WIN
@1.91
Win
118
As impressive as Wigan have been, on the road, like most teams, they have shown more vulnerabilities. This should be a game Huddersfield will be up for, a home game versus the title favourites.
15:00 Ireland vs West Indies 2nd T20 Match
Ireland
Win Match
50 WIN
@4.00
Void
0
dont really agree with this price. it should be no bigger than 3.80 here. the windies are on a horrible losing streak, having not won a single game in england. winning becomes habit forming, as does losing.
10:35 North Queensland Cowboys v Dolphins
North Queensland Cowboys
To Win
70 WIN
@2.55
Lose
-70
The Cowboys have proven their credentials as a home team this season and in recent seasons. Their home record makes impressive reading. Strong enough team for this game. Price a tad high at 2.55.
08:30 Newcastle Knights v Sydney Roosters
Newcastle Knights
To Win
60 WIN
@2.90
Lose
-60
The Roosters don't have great team news for this game. And they have only been playing well for patches of games. Newcastle at home and near full strength will be a tough task here.
08:05 Chiefs v Brumbies
Chiefs
To Win
120 WIN
@1.14
Win
17
Team news is very good for the Chiefs here. It is the strongest team list they have put out this season. The team is laden with All Blacks. The Brumbies are a pretty flawed outfit. Can only see this result here.
03:10 SF Giants @ LA Dodgers
SF Giants
Money Line
70 WIN
@2.65
Win
115
dont really agree with this price it should be no bigger than 2.60 here so some minor value. the giants have won 7 out of their last 8 games. during this stretch their batting lineup has averaged 5.5 runs per game, which is decent.
00:10 NY Yankees @ BOS Red Sox
BOS Red Sox
Money Line
60 WIN
@1.73
Win
44
You know this is a series boston will really be up for, playing their biggest rival at their home ballpark. The home side get a favourable starting pitcher matchup here.
00:10 TB Rays @ NY Mets
TB Rays
Money Line
104 WIN
@2.55
Win
161
the starting pitcher matchup is quite favourable for tampa bay here. And i like the amount of sharp money around for this selection. price too high.
Subtotal82
13 June 2025
20:00 Hull FC v Castleford
Castleford
To Win
57 WIN
@4.33
Win
190
The Castleford players and staff will place a huge emphasis on this game. It's a realistic win, unlike some of their remaining games. Price too high here.
Castleford 12.50
Handicap (2-way)
63 WIN
@1.91
Win
57
On recent form and the likely team lists, this is a tighter matchup than the bookies' line of 12.5 suggests. 10.5 is fair here. 12.5 is two points too high. The Castleford players and staff will see this game as a realistic win, unlike some of their other remaining games.
20:00 Hull KR v Catalan Dragons
Catalan Dragons
To Win
60 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-60
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 6-1 here. Recent seasons' historical performances show that the Dragons often produce their best performances against the elite teams.
Catalan Dragons 18.50
Handicap (2-way)
80 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-80
Two teams with recent contrasting fortunes. But the Dragons should be respected. They present a solid attacking game and defense. Plus, Hull KR's preparation for this game has not been ideal.
11:00 Gold Coast Titans v Manly Sea Eagles
Manly Sea Eagles
To Win
50 WIN
@1.30
Lose
-50
Gold Coast rank poorly in several stat categories this season, particularly the defense stat categories. Manly have a pretty potent attacking game, which spells trouble for the hosts here.
08:05 Crusaders v Blues
Blues
To Win
55 WIN
@3.30
Lose
-55
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.15 here, so getting value odds. I think the Blues can compete well in the forward battle. And the visitors have more quality players in the backs.
Blues 6.50
Handicap
70 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-70
The Crusaders have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed here. The Blues present dangerous opposition. 80% of the starting 15 have played for the All Blacks, and they should cope well with a game of this magnitude.
01:10 EDM Oilers @ FLA Panthers
Under 6.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
at some point in this series i get the sense there will be a stellar defensive showing from either or both teams. no reason why it wont be here. good deal of sharp money around for this selection which i like and will follow here.
01:00 EDM Oilers @ FLA Panthers
EDM Oilers
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.30
Win
65
dont really agree with this price, it should be no bigger than 2.25 here, so getting value odds. this season the oilers have often responded strongly after a poor performance, thats the situation they face today.
EDM Oilers 1.50
Puck Line
51 WIN
@1.53
Win
27
as a general rule this season after getting beaten by a big margin, the oliers have often responded strongly in their next game. price a tad high here at 1.53.
00:40 NY Yankees @ KC Royals
KC Royals
Money Line
65 WIN
@2.15
Lose
-65
favourable pitching matchup here for the home side. And after being embarrased yesterday i expect a strong response here from the royals. of the royals 34 wins this season 19 have been at home. of the yankees 25 losses this season 13 have been on the road.
Subtotal-91
12 June 2025
18:10 WAS Nationals @ NY Mets
WAS Nationals
Money Line
52 WIN
@3.10
Lose
-52
Washington remains alive for a playoff spot. While this is still the case, they will fight hard for every win possible. Before this series started with the Mets, they had won 4 out of their last 5 road games and have proven so far this season to be a solid road team. Price a tad high here.
10:50 Cronulla Sharks v St George/Illawarra Dragons
Cronulla Sharks
To Win
67 WIN
@1.30
Win
20
The Sharks will be hurting as last week was their worst performance this season. Quality sides often respond strongly in this situation, and they should have too many weapons for a pretty flawed Dragons team.
00:40 NY Yankees @ KC Royals
KC Royals
Money Line
80 WIN
@2.05
Lose
-80
I like the starting pitcher matchup here for the Royals. It is favorable. Personally, I think this price should be no bigger than evens here, so getting some minor value.
00:10 WAS Nationals @ NY Mets
WAS Nationals
Money Line
50 WIN
@3.25
Lose
-50
While Washington remains alive for a playoff spot, as they do at this point in time, you know the effort will be there every game. Fifteen of their 30 wins this season have been on the road, which for all teams with a below .500 win rate is one of the best road records. Price a tad high here.
Subtotal-162
11 June 2025
21:10 LA Dodgers @ SD Padres
SD Padres
Money Line
60 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-60
The Padres are one of the more streaky teams in the entire MLB. This goes both ways, both good and bad. After yesterday's 11-1 win, I like them today to continue their momentum. They have also won 5 out of their last 8 home games.
00:40 NY Yankees @ KC Royals
KC Royals
Money Line
53 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-53
The home side gets a reasonably favorable pitching matchup here, in my opinion. The Royals have been quietly going about their business and are 19-13 at home this season, which is superior to the Yankees' road record. The Royals are 20-11 in their last 31 home games played. Price is a tad high here.
00:10 WAS Nationals @ NY Mets
WAS Nationals
Money Line
70 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-70
Well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here. This price should be no bigger than 2.20 here, so some minor value at these odds.
Subtotal-183
10 June 2025
18:30 England vs West Indies 3rd T20 Match
West Indies
Win Match
120 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-120
The Windies will be hurting after not winning a match on this tour yet. The 20-20 format is their strongest format. Expect a strong response. Perhaps England won't be as focused as they should be here with the 20-20 series already won.
01:00 EDM Oilers @ FLA Panthers
FLA Panthers
Money Line
140 WIN
@1.74
Win
104
Like most teams, the Oilers are more vulnerable on the road and have shown more vulnerabilities on the road this season. This will be a tough environment to get a win. Price a tad high here.
FLA Panthers -1.50
Puck Line
70 WIN
@2.80
Win
126
A high number of Florida's wins this season have been by 2+ goals, 3+ also. This price at 2.80 implies a 35% probability. I will suggest that is not quite accurate and a tad low.
Under 6.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
I expect both teams to step up defensively after two games in a row where that has not been the case. This selection is well supported with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here.
Subtotal60
09 June 2025
13:30 Anouck Vrancken Peeters vs Lulu Sun
Anouck Vrancken Peeters
Win Match
53 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-53
Sun's recent form is less than convincing. There are a lot of losses, and of the wins, a high number have gone 3 sets. Price a tad high here.
Lulu Sun to win 2 - 1
Set Betting
97 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-97
A 3-setter seems quite likely here. Sun's recent form suggests a 2-0 win is not very likely. Peeters has the comforts and benefits of playing in home conditions here.
Subtotal-150
08 June 2025
21:00 MIN Lynx @ DAL Wings
DAL Wings
Money Line
62 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-62
Don't really agree with this price for what will be a desperate and hungry home team. 60% of the Wings' decent performances in recent seasons have occurred at home.
20:00 CON Sun @ WAS Mystics
CON Sun
Money Line
50 WIN
@3.60
Lose
-50
Washington are solid defensively, but that is all they are. The Sun can exploit their defensive inefficiencies. This price should be no bigger than 3.50 here, so some minor value.
Subtotal-112
07 June 2025
15:30 Leicester v Sale Sharks
Sale Sharks
To Win
53 WIN
@2.40
Lose
-53
Don't really agree with this price. Sale brings a decent attacking game, and the forward battle looks pretty even here. Even forward battle, Sale has the edge in back play. 2.40 is a nice price.
Sale Sharks 2.50
Handicap
78 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-78
No reasons to fault Sale's preparation for this game. Leicester have vulnerabilities defensively that a decent attacking team like Sale can exploit. Line a tad generous here.
15:00 Warrington v Hull KR
Hull KR
To Win
50 WIN
@1.28
Win
14
Not only are Hull KR one of the hottest teams in global rugby league, I would say global sport. Their form is superb, and they should have too much firepower for Warrington here.
10:35 Brisbane Broncos v Gold Coast Titans
Brisbane Broncos
To Win
160 WIN
@1.33
Win
53
Brisbane have produced a series of recent underwhelming performances. They remain a quality side. I expect a strong response here at home versus a pretty flawed Gold Coast team. Price a tad high here.
10:35 Brumbies v Hurricanes
Brumbies
To Win
50 WIN
@1.75
Win
38
This game suddenly has huge meaning with the Blues winning. The loser packs their bags for the season. I have more faith in the Brumbies at home, and they have the advantage in the forward battle. Price a tad low though, unfortunately, so small stakes.
08:30 Cronulla Sharks v New Zealand Warriors
New Zealand Warriors 6.50
Handicap (2-way)
53 WIN
@1.91
Win
48
The Warriors' play this season, for the most part, has been of a high standard. Teams will have trouble not only beating them but even more so beating them by big margins. Line a tad high here.
08:05 Chiefs v Blues
Blues
To Win
77 WIN
@3.35
Win
181
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.20 here, so getting value odds. It's a wacky playoff system this year in Super Rugby. This game has far more importance to the Blues. The Chiefs can lose and still easily make the final.
Blues 8.50
Handicap
300 WIN
@1.91
Win
273
80% of the Blues starting 15 have played for the All Blacks. Most of the team were part of last season's champion team. So, big pressure games like this they will cope well with. Line too high here.
01:00 FLA Panthers @ EDM Oilers
FLA Panthers
Money Line
80 WIN
@1.95
Win
76
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection and will follow here at what is a solid price. In the context of this series, this is a bigger game for Florida, so perhaps they will want it more.
FLA Panthers 1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Sharp money has come hard for Florida for this game, which I like and will follow here. The gulf in class between these two teams is very minor. A close, tight game is likely.
Under 6.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Florida let themselves down defensively in game one. Look for a strong response here from a decent defensive outfit. This price should be no bigger than 1.95 here.
Subtotal522
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
