surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

Estimated Prizes
this month

£10

Estimated Prize money
this month

surfsup's Tips History

20 November 2025

08:10 Sydney Sixers W vs Melbourne Stars W T20

Melbourne Stars W

Win Match

77 WIN

@2.10

Win

Based on form and the likely player lineups for both teams, I have this price no bigger than evens here, so getting value odds. The Stars have a decent batting lineup that can hurt a Sixers bowling attack that is nothing special.

01:10 DEN Nuggets @ NO Pelicans

NO Pelicans

Money Line

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

New Orleans at home are more likely to put in a strong effort and performance than if it was a road game. They will be desperate here and have a solid offense.

01:10 SAC Kings @ OKC Thunder

SAC Kings

Money Line

53 WIN

@13.00

Lose

-53

OKC are getting a lot of hype right now. I mean a lot. This is sometimes a negative as it can put the players in the wrong headspace. The Kings have a solid offense. Price a tad high here.

01:10 WAS Wizards @ MIN Timberwolves

WAS Wizards

Money Line

55 WIN

@11.00

Lose

-55

Banking on some complacency here from the home side. This is always more likely when a team is heavily favored. Price too big here at 10-1.

00:40 GS Warriors @ MIA Heat

MIA Heat

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.25

Win

Team news is poor for the Warriors here. This lack of high-quality players should be costly today. The Heat are a force at home. The Warriors' road record in recent seasons is ordinary.

MIA Heat -10.50

Pointspread

50 WIN

@1.95

Win

A win by a big margin is realistic here for the Heat, as team news for the visitors is ordinary, as is their road record in recent seasons. The Heat at home is a tough ask.

00:10 TOR Raptors @ PHI 76ers

TOR Raptors

Money Line

59 WIN

@1.83

Win

Team news is not great for the hosts. Toronto are in form and clicking nicely on offense right now. They should have too much class and firepower here.

TOR Raptors -2.00

Pointspread

50 WIN

@1.87

Win

Toronto are hot right now, and it's their offense that has been particularly impressive. They have scored 109 points or more in 10 games in a row and have won 8 games out of their last 9.

19 November 2025

04:10 PHX Suns @ POR Trail Blazers

PHX Suns

Money Line

89 WIN

@2.10

Win

This is a well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here at what is a decent enough price. The Suns have been impressive this season, and their offense can hurt an average Blazers defense today.

03:40 UTA Jazz @ LA Lakers

UTA Jazz

Money Line

61 WIN

@7.00

Lose

-61

The Lakers have shown me enough flaws in recent seasons to be opposed at very low odds here. Defensively, they are nothing special, and this solid Jazz offense can hurt them.

18 November 2025

15:30 Samoa v Belgium

Belgium

To Win

53 WIN

@18.00

Push

Not without a hope at big odds. Here's some areas that Samoa are lacking: coaching and management, fitness, discipline. The visitors can match or better them in these areas.

Belgium 27.50

Handicap

90 WIN

@1.85

Win

Samoa has more high-quality players and the superior form, hence the big line. However, given the magnitude of this game for Belgium and the fact Samoa are lacking in key areas, a competitive performance is likely here.

13:00 Namibia v Brazil

Brazil

To Win

57 WIN

@4.75

Lose

-57

Good deal of sharp money coming for this selection, which I like and will follow here. This game does not have much meaning for Namibia, who are a pretty flawed team.

01:15 DAL Cowboys @ LV Raiders

LV Raiders

Money Line

79 WIN

@2.60

Lose

-79

Don't really agree with this price. Dallas ranks poorly in most defensive stat categories this season. The Raiders are likely to put in a strong effort and performance at home under the big time and bright lights of MNF.

LV Raiders 3.50

Point Spread

50 WIN

@1.87

Lose

-50

The Raiders players and staff will see this game as a realistic win against a pretty flawed Cowboys team, especially defensively. Price and line are a tad generous here.

LV Raiders - DAL Cowboys

Double Result

94 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-94

By taking this selection, as well as the Raiders to win, in effect I am taking the hosts to be ahead at halftime or full-time. For me, this is realistic against a pretty flawed Dallas team.

Jack Bech (LV Raiders)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

50 WIN

@12.00

Lose

-50

I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection, which I will follow here at what is a decent enough price. Personally, I think it should be no bigger than 10-1 here.

LV Raiders by 13 18

Winning Margin

70 WIN

@14.00

Lose

-70

Dallas ranks poorly in several team stat categories, especially the defense ones. At home and under the bright lights of MNF, surely this is a game the Raiders will be up for. A win by a big margin is realistic.

17 November 2025

01:20 DET Lions @ PHI Eagles

DET Lions

Money Line

377 WIN

@2.30

Lose

-377

The Lions have the superior offense and have proven their credentials on the road in recent seasons. Under the big time and bright lights of SNF, surely this is a game they will be up for.

DET Lions - PHI Eagles

Double Result

380 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-380

Detroit has a decent first-half record this season and last season and the superior offense. A decent first half from the visitors is likely. There is enough class in this Eagles team at home to overturn the first-half deficit. By taking this selection as well as Detroit to win the game, in effect, I am taking them to be ahead at halftime or full-time. This is realistic.

16 November 2025

21:05 SEA Seahawks @ LA Rams

SEA Seahawks

Money Line

200 WIN

@2.50

Lose

-200

Seattle have been going about their business and racking up the wins, without much hype. The Rams, on the other hand, have been getting more hype from media and fans. Seattle will play with a chip on their shoulders for this game because of this, and I can see them wanting this win more here.

SEA Seahawks - LA Rams

Double Result

147 WIN

@4.90

Lose

-147

Seattle are in the top 3 most improved teams this season from last season. By taking this selection, as well as Seattle to win straight up, in effect I am taking Seattle to be ahead at halftime or full-time. For me, this is very realistic.

15:10 Scotland v Argentina

Argentina

To Win

60 WIN

@2.40

Win

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.30 here. Scotland have shown me enough flaws in recent seasons, especially on attack, to be opposed at low odds here.

14:30 Luke Littler vs Danny Noppert

Danny Noppert

Win Match 2-way

80 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-80

Don't agree with this price. For me, the Dutch player is no less than a 25% chance of winning this match. Therefore, this 6.50 price is over the odds regardless of what actually ends up happening.

Danny Noppert 5.50

Handicap 2-way

140 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-140

Noppert has been reasonably impressive of late, especially in his last two matches. He will enjoy the big underdog tag here and is a solid chance.

13:15 Luke Humphries vs Gerwyn Price

Gerwyn Price

Win Match 2-way

70 WIN

@2.75

Lose

-70

You know with Price, he is a fierce competitor and will provide a tough test on form for Luke. 2.75 should be no bigger than 2.65 here, in my humble opinion.

Gerwyn Price 2.50

Handicap 2-way

50 WIN

@1.83

Lose

-50

Humphries has shown me enough flaws in the past few months to be opposed here at lowish odds against a more than capable player in Price. Line and price are a tad generous here.

03:07 WPG Jets @ CGY Flames

CGY Flames

Money Line

50 WIN

@2.18

Lose

-50

I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection. I prefer the home side's preparation for this game. This price is a tad high here.

00:10 OKC Thunder @ CHA Hornets

CHA Hornets

Money Line

53 WIN

@10.00

Lose

-53

I will bank on some complacency here for the Thunder. Anytime you have a very heavy favorite, this becomes a possibility. The Hornets at home are more likely to put in a strong performance than on the road.

00:10 TOR Raptors @ IND Pacers

IND Pacers

Money Line

60 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-60

If the Pacers are going to make a playoff push, these are the games they must bank at home versus pretty flawed opposition. Price a tad high here.

IND Pacers 6.50

Pointspread

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

The Raptors have issues that Indy can exploit, especially defensively. The Pacers at home will see this as a realistic win even with their lack of quality players right now.

00:07 BOS Bruins @ MTL Canadiens

BOS Bruins

Money Line

150 WIN

@2.37

Win

206

Generous price here for a much improved Boston team to start the season. After a poor last road game, I like a strong response here from a capable team.

BOS Bruins 1.50

Puck Line

51 WIN

@1.57

Win

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 1.53 here, so getting value odds. The Habs are in a mini form slump right now.

00:07 EDM Oilers @ CAR Hurricanes

EDM Oilers

Money Line

139 WIN

@2.05

Win

146

I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection, which I will follow here at what is a solid price. It should be no bigger than evens here.

EDM Oilers 1.50

Puck Line

52 WIN

@1.44

Win

The Oilers are a top-tier road team, and I get the sense they will really be up for this game after blowing the win in their last road game. The price is a tad high here.

00:07 LA Kings @ OTT Senators

LA Kings

Money Line

57 WIN

@1.95

Win

The Kings have proven themselves as a road team this season and in recent seasons. The Sens are a pretty flawed team and a solid lay today at lowish odds.

LA Kings 1.50

Puck Line

50 WIN

@1.36

Win

A competitive performance is likely from the visitors here. They have their key players in and no reasons to fault their prep. They are clicking nicely at the attacking end right now.

00:07 TOR Maple Leafs @ CHI Blackhawks

CHI Blackhawks

Money Line

69 WIN

@2.08

Win

I have more faith in Chicago at home than the Leafs on the road, given the team lineups for today. The Leafs are missing more key players here.

CHI Blackhawks 1.50

Puck Line

50 WIN

@1.44

Win

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 1.42 here, so getting some value odds, albeit minor. I prefer the hosts' preparation here.

15 November 2025

22:10 MEM Grizzlies @ CLE Cavaliers

MEM Grizzlies

Money Line

60 WIN

@5.75

Lose

-60

Generous price here for a Memphis team who, while they have not been getting many wins, remain dangerous due to enough high-quality players in their playing group and a solid offense.

MEM Grizzlies 11.50

Pointspread

90 WIN

@1.91

Win

Memphis have the offense to hurt Cleveland. The hosts are in a mini form slump right now and have not had an ideal preparation for this game.

20:10 Ireland v Australia

Ireland

To Win

65 WIN

@1.25

Win

The Aussies have an average away record in recent seasons. It's been a tough and torrid international season for them, and I feel they are jaded right now. Price a tad high here.

15:00 Portugal v Hong Kong China

Hong Kong China

To Win

80 WIN

@7.00

Lose

-80

Worth a go at this price. It should be no bigger than 5-1 here. I feel the visitors can get parity in the backs or even an edge, which will give them a solid chance here.

Hong Kong China 16.50

Handicap

110 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-110

With sevens rugby becoming an Olympic sport, the likes of both Hong Kong and China have directed plenty more resources towards rugby union. As a result, both their fifteens and sevens teams have improved and are no longer the disgrace they once were. A competitive performance is likely here from the visitors.

02:40 GS Warriors @ SA Spurs

SA Spurs

Money Line

70 WIN

@1.75

Lose

-70

The Spurs are much improved this season, and I don't think the bookies have factored that in enough yet. The Warriors' road record in recent seasons makes grim reading.

SA Spurs -2.50

Pointspread

53 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-53

The Warriors on the road in recent seasons have performed poorly for a team of their standards. The Spurs at home are in the top 10 toughest assignments in the NBA.

00:40 PHI 76ers @ DET Pistons

DET Pistons

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.87

Win

i have more faith in detroit at home than the 76ers on the road. prearation for the hosts for this game has been ideal. price is a tad high here.

DET Pistons -1.00

Pointspread

50 WIN

@1.91

Win

Detroit at home, desperately hunting every win possible, is a tough ask for a pretty flawed Philly team who have not shown me enough on the road in recent seasons.

00:10 MIA Heat @ NY Knicks

MIA Heat

Money Line

56 WIN

@3.10

Lose

-56

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.00 here, so getting value odds. The Heat are no less than a 35% chance of winning this game, so value odds.

MIA Heat 6.50

Pointspread

51 WIN

@1.95

Lose

-51

The Heat have the offense to hurt the Knicks, who are nothing special defensively. Team news is okay for the visitors, as is their preparation for this game.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.

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surfsup's Tips History

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