surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
5
Estimated Prizes
this month
£50
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
11 January 2026
15:15 Bordeaux v Northampton Saints
Bordeaux
To Win
75 WIN
@1.22
Win
16
Bordeaux at home is a tough assignment. One which a pretty flawed Saints team will probably fail. The hosts are efficient both on attack and defense. The same cannot be said for Saints, especially defensively.
08:15 Adelaide Strikers vs Perth Scorchers T20
Adelaide Strikers
Win Match
60 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-60
I have more faith and trust in Adelaide at home than Perth away at such a tough venue. Adelaide know the importance of banking their home games and have enough quality players to do so today.
06:00 Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets
80 WIN
@4.50
Win
280
I see this game as a reasonably even matchup, with home advantage giving the Melbourne side a small edge. Getting 4.50 odds in a tight matchup where the result could easily go either way makes sense to me.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
57 WIN
@1.52
Lose
-57
The Jets' strength is their attacking game, and Melbourne City have a high-quality attacking game. I have to think both teams will register at least one goal each. Price a tad high here.
Draw & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
Both teams have decent attacking games and are in form too, especially the hosts. On form, this is a reasonably even matchup, which gives the draw a solid chance here.
03:25 Wellington vs Northern Districts T20
Wellington
Win Match
122 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-122
The hosts will be desperate here and hungry after dropping their last two home games. A third home loss in a row would be a major dagger in achieving their goal of making the playoffs. The hosts have the players right now to right the ship.
03:07 LA Kings @ EDM Oilers
EDM Oilers
Money Line
210 WIN
@1.57
Lose
-210
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. I prefer the home side's prep for this game as well. Price a tad high here.
03:05 Sydney Sixers vs Hobart Hurricanes T20
Sydney Sixers
Win Match
80 WIN
@1.75
Void
0
Hobart have taken a step backwards from last season and have been shaky on the road this season. The Sixers at home are a tough test, which they will likely fail.
02:00 Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
70 WIN
@1.55
Win
39
Both teams have pretty ordinary defenses and have been leaking plenty of goals this season. Their attacking games are both solid or better. Price is a tad high here.
Adelaide United & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
53 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-53
Adelaide are the superior team in my view, and are fresh off their worst performance this season. I expect a strong response here from the visitors. Price too high here.
01:10 DAL Mavericks @ CHI Bulls
CHI Bulls
Money Line
70 WIN
@1.80
Win
56
Dallas has a poor road record this season at 4-13 and has not had an ideal prep for this game. The Bulls are 10-9 at home and are desperate and hungry for every win possible right now for a playoff spot.
01:00 GB Packers @ CHI Bears
CHI Bears
Money Line
180 WIN
@2.05
Win
189
Bookies have the wrong favourite here in my view. This price should be no bigger than 1.85, so very much getting value odds. The Packers have limped into the playoffs. Chicago has not, and at home a strong performance is likely here.
CHI Bears 2.00
Point Spread
130 WIN
@1.91
Win
118
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. Bookies have the wrong favourite for this game in my view.
GB Packers - CHI Bears
Double Result
60 WIN
@6.00
Win
300
The Packers have a decent first-half record this season and historically often lead the Bears at halftime. There is enough quality in this Bears team to come back in the second half.
CHI Bears by 7 12
Winning Margin
57 WIN
@6.75
Lose
-57
A large margin of victory is realistic for the Bears here, given they are at home and the respective form of these two teams entering the playoffs.
GB Packers Under 23.50
Team Points 2-Way (Away)
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
The Bears have the defence to suffocate the Packers. Home advantage is significant as well. This line and price are too generous here in my view.
00:40 LA Clippers @ DET Pistons
DET Pistons
Money Line
53 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-53
I have more faith and trust in Detroit at home here than a pretty flawed road team like the Clippers. Detroit are the superior, more balanced team on offense and defense, and that should show in the end result.
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00:10 MIA Heat @ IND Pacers
IND Pacers
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.10
Win
126
The Pacers have had a decent prep for this game. The Heat are basically a 50% winning team on the road in recent seasons, which is pretty ordinary. The Pacers have the offense to hurt them today.
Subtotal412
10 January 2026
21:30 LA Rams @ CAR Panthers
CAR Panthers
Money Line
117 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-117
I have seen enough flaws in the Rams this season, especially in the past month, to oppose them here at very low odds. Carolina isn't flashy but does the basics well and, at home, will be tough to beat here. Price too high.
CAR Panthers - LA Rams
Double Result
162 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-162
Fueled by a big supportive home crowd and the big underdog tag, I like the hosts to be ahead at halftime. Only for the class of the superior team to take over in the second half.
20:37 CGY Flames @ PIT Penguins
PIT Penguins
Money Line
52 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-52
At home I have more faith and trust in Pittsburgh at home than Calgary away. The hosts have an in-form and potent attacking game that can hurt the visitors today, who are only average defensively.
20:00 Leicester Tigers v Bayonne
Bayonne
To Win
50 WIN
@21.00
Lose
-50
Not without a hope at big odds. The hosts should win the forward battle. However, in the backs I think the visitors should be competitive. This gives them an outside chance today.
Bayonne 32.50
Handicap
80 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-80
Due to the back play of the respective teams not being one-sided, I think the visitors should stay within this big number. The visitors are solid with their goal kicking, which will only help too.
20:00 Scarlets v Pau
Pau
To Win
230 WIN
@3.75
Win
632
Anytime you can get the superior team at these odds, it's a must-take. Granted it's an away game, but Pau will mean business today, as they will be eyeing maximum points against a pretty flawed Scarlets team.
Pau 8.50
Handicap
300 WIN
@1.91
Win
273
I have this game as a more even matchup than the bookies. I will take on a pretty flawed Scarlets team here, who have issues, especially defensively, that the visitors can exploit today.
17:30 Leinster v La Rochelle
La Rochelle
To Win
70 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-70
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection, which I will follow here at what is an attractive enough price. In back play and kicking, La Rochelle can match or better the hosts today.
La Rochelle 10.50
Handicap
130 WIN
@1.91
Win
118
Sharp money has come hard for the visitors for this game, and I tend to agree with it. Team news is not great for the hosts. In the backs, the French side should be competitive here.
15:15 Clermont v Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors
To Win
50 WIN
@1.28
Win
14
I will take on a pretty flawed Clermont team who, other than playing at home, don't have much going for them. Glasgow bring a decent attacking game, which will give the hosts all kinds of problems today.
13:00 Bulls v Bristol Bears
Bristol Bears
To Win
60 WIN
@4.00
Win
180
Bristol bring a reasonably cohesive attacking game. This can trouble a Bulls defense that is nothing special. This average defense the Bulls have gives the visitors a solid chance here.
08:15 Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars T20
Melbourne Renegades
Win Match
56 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-56
The Stars are on a bad losing streak and low on confidence right now. The Renegades at home will fancy themselves for another win over their Melbourne rivals. This price should be no bigger than evens here.
04:55 Canterbury vs Auckland T20
Auckland
Win Match
57 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-57
The wheels have been falling off Canterbury since a few of their NZ international players left the playing group. This shaky form makes them a solid lay against a decent enough Auckland team.
03:10 HOU Rockets @ POR Trail Blazers
HOU Rockets
Money Line
54 WIN
@1.44
Lose
-54
Houston are a nicely balanced team and one of the better teams defensively in the league. Portland will struggle with this defense today. This price is a tad high here.
02:10 NY Knicks @ PHX Suns
PHX Suns
Money Line
67 WIN
@2.05
Win
70
Don't really agree with this price. The Knicks are an average road team. At least 65% of their ordinary performances have been on the road in recent seasons. Price is a tad high here.
01:10 Canterbury W vs Auckland W T20
Canterbury W
Win Match
51 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-51
This is a bigger game for Canterbury than it is for Auckland given the standings. So they may be more desperate and want it more at home. Auckland has a shaky and ordinary body of work away from home in recent seasons.
01:10 OKC Thunder @ MEM Grizzlies
MEM Grizzlies
Money Line
93 WIN
@2.90
Lose
-93
The Thunder are in the worst slump of the season right now. Memphis are fighting hard for every win for a playoff spot. At home, a strong performance is likely here.
MEM Grizzlies 5.50
Pointspread
53 WIN
@1.95
Win
50
The Thunder are in their worst form of the season right now at this point in time and are vulnerable today against a solid home team in Memphis, who have had a decent prep for this game.
00:40 LA Clippers @ BKN Nets
BKN Nets
Money Line
130 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-130
I have more faith and trust in the Nets at home than a poor road team in the Clippers. At least 65% of the Clippers' ordinary performances in recent seasons have been on the road.
00:10 NO Pelicans @ WAS Wizards
WAS Wizards
Money Line
80 WIN
@2.30
Lose
-80
New Orleans are a flawed team that has been playing well only in patches. This will be unlikely to get the result here against a solid home team in the Wizards, who are in good form right now.
00:10 PHI 76ers @ ORL Magic
PHI 76ers
Money Line
59 WIN
@1.75
Win
44
The superior team should prevail here. Team news is not great for the Magic. The hosts have been struggling on offense for a couple of weeks now, and this should be costly today.
00:10 TOR Raptors @ BOS Celtics
BOS Celtics
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.25
Win
12
Boston doesn't drop many of their home games. Fresh off a pretty embarrassing home loss, I expect them to respond strongly here against a pretty flawed Toronto team.
Subtotal341
09 January 2026
20:00 Brive v Biarritz
Biarritz
To Win
63 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-63
I give the visitors no less than a 25% chance of a win here, so 6.50 is value odds. The hosts only have a small edge in the forward battle and, again, a small edge only in back play.
Biarritz 15.50
Handicap
80 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-80
Would not surprise me to see a narrow margin of victory here. In most areas, Biarritz can match the hosts or be competitive for the 80 minutes. Line a tad high here.
20:00 Castres v Bath
Castres
To Win
53 WIN
@3.20
Lose
-53
The hosts can match or better Bath in back play, while the visitors should win the forward battle. At home, Castres will be a solid test for a Bath team that lacks cohesion in their back play.
Castres 7.50
Handicap
77 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-77
Castres at home will be a solid test for a Bath team, who, like most teams, are more vulnerable in their away games. Bath also lacks cohesion in their back play. Line a tad high here.
20:00 Edinburgh v Gloucester
Edinburgh
To Win
400 WIN
@1.05
Win
20
Team news is not great for the visitors, who have a pretty ordinary away record in recent seasons. This should be a bridge too far. The hosts have too much class.
18:30 Dax v Agen
Dax
To Win
59 WIN
@1.36
Win
21
Dax have the more potent and cohesive attacking game, and that should be the difference here. Plus all the benefits of playing at home. Price a tad high here.
18:30 Oyonnax v Carcassonne
Oyonnax
To Win
200 WIN
@1.03
Win
6
Can only see this result here. The visitors are too flawed in too many areas, and away from home are a solid lay today at a very tough venue.
18:30 Soyaux Angouleme v Nevers
Soyaux Angouleme
To Win
50 WIN
@1.30
Win
15
Another well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here. Nevers away have a pretty ordinary record in recent seasons.
18:30 Valence Romans v Beziers
Beziers
To Win
81 WIN
@6.40
Lose
-81
This price should be no bigger than 5-1 here. The forward battle should be a tough fight that is unlikely to be one-sided, which gives the visitors a solid chance here.
Beziers 15.50
Handicap
199 WIN
@1.85
Win
169
This line is too high by one full point, in my view. The forward battle here is unlikely to be one-sided, which gives the visitors every chance of being competitive.
18:30 Vannes v Mont de Marsan
Vannes
To Win
300 WIN
@1.01
Win
3
Vannes at home are tough to beat at the best of times. A flawed Mont-de-Marsan team is highly unlikely to have much joy here today.
18:00 Aurillac v Colomiers
Colomiers 1.50
Handicap
60 WIN
@1.83
Win
50
Good deal of sharp money around for the visitors for this game, which I like and will follow here. Team news is not great for the hosts, which won't help them today.
08:35 Brisbane Roar v Auckland FC
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
53 WIN
@2.05
Win
56
Auckland are a pretty sound defensive side and tough to break down. The sharp money indicates that both teams may not score here. The price is a tad high.
Auckland FC & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@4.75
Lose
-50
Auckland are the likely winners of this game as they are the more balanced team and are fresh off an underwhelming performance. Being the better side they should respond strongly to this.
03:25 Wellington vs Otago T20
Wellington
Win Match
70 WIN
@1.67
Lose
-70
Wellington lost their last home game in heartbreaking fashion. They take great pride in banking their home games. Look for a strong response here against a pretty flawed Otago team.
02:10 DAL Mavericks @ UTA Jazz
UTA Jazz
Money Line
63 WIN
@2.70
Win
107
Dallas has one of the worst road records in the entire league, at 4-12. In recent seasons their road record has been pretty ordinary as well. The Jazz at home should put in a strong performance here.
01:10 MIA Heat @ CHI Bulls
MIA Heat
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.40
Void
0
The Bulls have issues that are reasonably serious defensively. The Heat bring a pretty potent offense that can exploit this. The Bulls' prep for this game has been less than ideal.
00:10 IND Pacers @ CHA Hornets
IND Pacers
Money Line
77 WIN
@2.62
Win
125
I will take the pretty flawed Charlotte team here, who has not had a decent prep for this game. The Pacers have a solid offense that can trouble an ordinary Hornets defense.
Subtotal98
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
