surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
1
Estimated Prizes
this month
£5
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
19 July 2025
03:10 MIL Brewers @ LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.50
Lose
-50
The Dodgers get a reasonably favorable pitching matchup here. And at home, they have racked up the wins this season. Of their 58 wins, 33 have been at home. The Brewers are just 23-23 on the road. Price about right here though, so small stakes.
Subtotal-50
18 July 2025
11:00 Penrith Panthers v South Sydney Rabbitohs
South Sydney Rabbitohs
To Win
120 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-120
Penrith have patchy form both this season and of late. This price is based too much on Penrith's impressive history in recent seasons. This season, for the most part, they have failed to fire. Realistic win for Souths, who bring a solid attacking game. Price too high here.
South Sydney Rabbitohs 12.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
This Penrith team this season is a shadow of some of the great Penrith teams. Souths will fancy their chances here of being competitive with the solid attacking game they have.
09:05 Samoa v Scotland
Samoa
To Win
80 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-80
Samoa are a better chance than this price suggests. They have a solid forward pack, particularly the loose forwards, and a backline that can match or even better Scotland. 9-1 should be no bigger than 8-1 here.
Samoa 21.50
Handicap
161 WIN
@1.87
Lose
-161
Samoa will do the basics well and have some classy backs. If they can avoid making too many handling errors, then they are a solid chance here against what is a weakened Scotland team. The line is a tad high here.
09:00 Cronulla Sharks v Sydney Roosters
Sydney Roosters
To Win
130 WIN
@2.15
Lose
-130
Sharp money has come hard for this selection, which I like and will follow here. Crucial game for the Roosters for their top 8 hopes. Strong team named, settled preparation.
Subtotal-541
17 July 2025
10:50 Dolphins v North Queensland Cowboys
North Queensland Cowboys
To Win
59 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-59
Strong team named by the visitors, which hasn't always been the case this season, and a main reason why they have racked up so many losses. On attack, they will offer enough to test and trouble an ordinary Dolphins defense.
North Queensland Cowboys 5.50
Handicap (2-way)
80 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-80
Despite not getting the wins of late, the signs have been pretty positive for the Cowboys. Attacking-wise, they are solid, which will trouble a Dolphins defense that is pretty ordinary.
Subtotal-139
15 July 2025
10:00 Simona Waltert vs Anastasija Sevastova
Anastasija Sevastova
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
This is a well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here. The sharp money is often on the mark in tennis. Price is a tad high here.
08:30 Patricia Maria Tig vs Maria Lourdes Carle
Patricia Maria Tig
Win Match
125 WIN
@3.20
Lose
-125
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.05 here, so getting value odds. Tig has home advantage, which is significant, and she is decent on clay. In a tight matchup, I will gladly take 3.20 odds.
Subtotal-175
14 July 2025
13:30 Miriam Bulgaru vs Jil Teichmann
Miriam Bulgaru
Win Match
93 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-93
The comforts of playing at home have proven to be significant historically in many tournaments. Bulgaru gets that advantage of playing in her home country here. She arrives in solid form. Teichmann has a decent all-round game but lacks the X factor and is nothing special. Price is a tad high here.
Jil Teichmann to win 2 - 1
Set Betting
60 WIN
@4.00
Win
180
By backing both Bulgaru to win and this option, Teichmann to win 2-1, in effect I am backing Bulgaru to win a set. On form, this seems realistic enough given Bulgaru has home advantage.
Miriam Bulgaru 4.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
Bulgaru has the comfort of playing at home. Teichmann has a decent game but lacks major weapons to blow Bulgaru away. A competitive performance from the Romanian is likely here, in my view.
Subtotal142
13 July 2025
21:05 LA Dodgers @ SF Giants
SF Giants
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-50
Like most teams, playing on the road has not been kind to the Dodgers this season. Of their 39 losses, 22 have been on the road. The Giants have 52 wins, 28 of which have been at home. This price should be no bigger than 2.15 here, so there's some minor value.
19:10 NY Mets @ KC Royals
KC Royals
Money Line
57 WIN
@2.15
Win
66
There is a decent amount of early sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. The Mets have 41 losses this season. A high number of these have been on the road, 27 to be exact, which is an ordinary road record.
18:35 CHI Cubs @ NY Yankees
CHI Cubs
Money Line
65 WIN
@2.10
Win
72
I like the starting pitcher matchup here for the Cubs. It is reasonably favorable. The Cubs have made significant improvements this season. It would mean a lot to the players and staff to take a series from the Yankees. They will be up for this one today.
09:15 Gold Coast Titans v Brisbane Broncos
Brisbane Broncos
To Win
60 WIN
@1.30
Win
18
Gold Coast can be solid or better on attack. However, defensively they are poor and have been struggling of late. Brisbane have a potent attack which will greatly trouble the hosts.
07:05 Parramatta Eels v Penrith Panthers
Parramatta Eels
To Win
160 WIN
@3.25
Lose
-160
Penrith have, for the most part this season, been unconvincing. With several players involved in the tough Origin game just 3 days before this fixture, it will be a tough ask for the visitors to get the win here.
Parramatta Eels 9.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
It will be tough for Penrith to win this game by a big margin. Several key players played in the Origin just 3 days ago. Ask any player and they all say backing up 2 or 3 days after a game is much tougher than 6 days or more.
05:00 New Zealand Warriors v Wests Tigers
New Zealand Warriors
To Win
50 WIN
@1.42
Win
21
The Warriors at home is a tough assignment. One in which this flawed Tigers team will likely fail. This price is about right though, so small stakes here.
00:30 USA v Spain
Spain
To Win
60 WIN
@3.40
Win
144
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.00 here, getting much better than that. The USA have a lot of basic errors in them, and their team defense is pretty ordinary. This spells trouble versus a solid Spain attacking game.
Spain 8.50
Handicap
90 WIN
@1.91
Win
82
This is a tight matchup. Spain have a solid and hard-working forward pack and some classy backs. USA are a pretty flawed team and are a solid lay at low odds here.
Subtotal143
12 July 2025
19:00 Portugal v Ireland
Portugal
To Win
70 WIN
@26.00
Lose
-70
Portugal have been steadily improving in recent years. Playing at home against a depleted Ireland team, this price should be no bigger than 20-1 here.
Portugal 35.50
Handicap
300 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-300
Home advantage has to aid Portugal here against a depleted Ireland team missing many of their key players. The hosts will do the basics well, which should see them be competitive here and cover this big line.
16:10 South Africa v Italy
Italy
To Win
53 WIN
@26.00
Lose
-53
If the Boks were at full strength, then this price would be fair. However, this is not their strongest lineup. Italy are outclassed in the backs, but I feel they will compete okay in the forward battle. Anytime this is the case, a team is a chance.
Italy 36.50
Handicap
129 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-129
Team news is not great for the hosts. While their depth is decent, cohesion for this team may be a problem. As a team unit, they have not had a lot of playing time together. Italy can be competitive in the forward battle.
11:00 Invitational AU & NZ v British & Irish Lions
Invitational AU & NZ
To Win
51 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-51
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 4.50 here. Player for player, the Lions only have a small edge, which does not warrant a 4-1 price. The hosts have a strong forward pack, especially the loose forwards. I expect them to compete well in the forward battle.
10:35 North Queensland Cowboys v Canterbury Bulldogs
Canterbury Bulldogs
To Win
160 WIN
@1.45
Win
72
The Cowboys' season has been spiraling out of control. Too many basic errors and only playing well for patches of matches have been costly. The Dogs should have too much class and weapons here.
08:30 St George/Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters
Sydney Roosters
To Win
60 WIN
@1.52
Win
31
Other than playing at home, the Dragons don't have much going for them here. They have been nothing better than solid on defense and on attack this season. The Roosters will be up for this one and offer more on attack.
08:05 New Zealand v France
New Zealand
To Win
57 WIN
@1.10
Win
6
The French away record is pretty ordinary, and while their team is stronger than last week, it is still missing several key players. NZ has the edge in the forward battle and a large advantage in back play.
06:00 Newcastle Knights v Melbourne Storm
Newcastle Knights
To Win
120 WIN
@3.85
Lose
-120
The Knights will be desperate here. Banking every game, especially their home games, is crucial to achieve their goal of a top 8 finish. Team news is not great for the Storm here. Price a tad high.
03:15 LA Dodgers @ SF Giants
LA Dodgers
Money Line
54 WIN
@2.15
Lose
-54
This is a well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here at what is a decent price for a quality Dodgers team. These two teams are strong rivals, so you know the Dodgers will be up for this series.
03:00 CON Sun @ SEA Storm
CON Sun
Money Line
60 WIN
@12.00
Lose
-60
The Sun won the last meeting between these two teams. The visitors have a solid offense that can test and trouble a Seattle defense that is only average by league standards. Price too high here.
01:10 NY Mets @ KC Royals
NY Mets -1.50
Run Line
53 WIN
@2.20
Win
64
The Mets get a reasonably favorable pitching matchup here. I will take on a pretty flawed Royals team who are making up the numbers this season. Price a tad high here.
Subtotal-664
11 July 2025
11:00 Cronulla Sharks v Dolphins
Cronulla Sharks
To Win
68 WIN
@1.65
Win
44
The Dolphins have been firing nicely on attack, but the Sharks have a decent team defense, which will make it tough for the visitors. Attacking-wise, the Sharks are decent themselves, and they can expose an ordinary Dolphins team defense.
Subtotal44
10 July 2025
16:30 Varvara Gracheva vs Julia Riera
Julia Riera
Win Match
120 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-120
This market has moved in favor of the favorite, creating some nice value on Riera. Personally, I think this price should be no bigger than 2.80 here.
13:00 Ekaterina Kazionova vs Oksana Selekhmeteva
Ekaterina Kazionova
Win Match
90 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-90
Kazionova has a decent ability to stay in most rallies against the level of opponent she faces today. Kazionova is a pretty complete player with no glaring weaknesses. Price too big here.
11:30 Elsa Jacquemot vs Kathinka Von Deichmann
Kathinka Von Deichmann
Win Match
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
This is a tighter matchup than how the bookies have it priced. This price should be no bigger than 3.90 here, so some minor value. I base this on the recent form of both players and the preferred surface of both players.
11:30 Mayar Sherif vs Darja Semenistaja
Darja Semenistaja
Win Match
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
Sherif's recent form is not convincing, and this will be a tough test. Semenistaja has a decent amount of sharp money support here at the likes of Pinnacle Sports, which I like and will follow here. Small stakes only here as this price is about right.
10:00 Dalma Galfi vs Katarzyna Kawa
Katarzyna Kawa
Win Match
70 WIN
@3.00
Void
0
This price has drifted nicely, creating an attractive price that is not realistic to the actual win probability. However, I look at this match as a tight matchup. 3.00 odds in a match that could easily go either way? Yes, please.
01:00 DAL Wings @ CHI Sky
CHI Sky
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. Will oppose a flawed Dallas team who rank poorly in several team stat categories.
Under 166.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Another well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here. Both teams rank poorly in offense and defense stat categories, especially Dallas.
Subtotal-218
09 July 2025
20:30 MIN Lynx @ PHX Mercury
PHX Mercury
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.40
Win
144
The Mercury have a pretty decent and in-form offense. Playing at home, a strong performance is likely here. This price is a tad high at 3.40.
Over 160.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Two teams that rank pretty highly in most offensive stat categories, especially the Lynx. Both offenses are in decent form again, especially the Lynx. The line is a tad low here, in my opinion.
16:00 SEA Storm @ CON Sun
CON Sun
Money Line
60 WIN
@12.00
Win
660
Generous price here. I feel it should be no bigger than 9-1, getting much better than that. The Sun have shown me enough quality of play this season at home to have me think they are a puncher's chance here.
CON Sun 18.00
Pointspread
77 WIN
@1.91
Win
70
The Sun have been solid at home this season despite not getting many wins. They have been competitive in most of their home matches, and against a Seattle team who is nothing special, they can be again today.
11:05 New South Wales v Queensland
New South Wales
To Win
76 WIN
@1.40
Lose
-76
There is a gulf in class between these two teams, and it should show in the end result. Home advantage is significant, as is the fact NSW are stronger in key positions.
11:00 ACT Brumbies v British & Irish Lions
ACT Brumbies
To Win
53 WIN
@26.00
Lose
-53
While this is unlikely to win with the Brumbies missing most of their top team, it's not a 25-1 shot. This price is not realistic; it should be no bigger than 16-1 here. Home advantage is significant. The players the Brumbies have available are solid enough.
ACT Brumbies 32.50
Handicap
77 WIN
@1.91
Win
70
While the Brumbies are missing most of their top players due to international duty, they do have the best depth out of all the Aussie Super Rugby teams. They should be competitive in the forward battle, and there is enough class in their backs to cover this big line.
Subtotal765
08 July 2025
13:30 Aryna Sabalenka vs Laura Siegemund
Laura Siegemund
Win Match
53 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-53
Another price I don't really agree with. It should be no bigger than 9-1 here, getting much better than that. Laura has the groundstrokes to stay in most rallies. Aryna does have too many games where she makes her share of unforced errors. If that happens here, this is a solid chance.
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Aryna Sabalenka to win 2 - 1
Set Betting
77 WIN
@4.50
Win
270
By backing this option as well as Laura to win, in effect, I am backing Laura to win a set, which at decent odds is a solid chance here. Aryna at times makes too many unforced errors, which could prove her undoing here.
Laura Siegemund 6.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Laura will stay in most of the rallies and has a solid all-round game. If Aryna has a bit of an off day with unforced errors, as she does from time to time, then there is every chance.
13:30 Cameron Norrie vs Carlos Alcaraz
Cameron Norrie
Win Match
50 WIN
@12.00
Lose
-50
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 9-1 here, getting much better than that. Norrie has a decent game and is playing on his preferred surface. Solid chance here.
Carlos Alcaraz to win 3 - 2
Set Betting
57 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-57
Norrie has a large number of 5-set battles versus quality players on grass. He has the game and fitness to take this match deep. Price a tad high here.
Cameron Norrie 6.50
Games Won
53 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-53
On form, this is not a one-sided match. Norrie will stay in many of the rallies, has decent groundstrokes and a service game. Line and odds are a tad generous here.
11:00 Taylor Fritz vs Karen Khachanov
Karen Khachanov
Win Match
50 WIN
@3.20
Lose
-50
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.05 here, so very much getting value odds. It makes sense to take 3.20 odds in a tight matchup that could easily go either way.
Karen Khachanov 3.50
Games Won
67 WIN
@2.00
Win
67
Karen is a pretty complete player these days with no glaring weaknesses. Fritz has patchy recent form. A tight match is on the cards here.
03:00 DAL Wings @ PHX Mercury
DAL Wings
Money Line
80 WIN
@3.05
Lose
-80
Team news is not great for the home side here. Dallas have the offense to test and trouble a Mercury defense that is pretty ordinary. Price too high here.
DAL Wings 6.00
Pointspread
150 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-150
Well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here. Dallas has a capable enough offense that will test and trouble an ordinary Mercury defense.
00:30 GS Valkyries @ ATL Dream
GS Valkyries
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.60
Lose
-60
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection, which I will follow here at what is a decent price. It should be no bigger than 3.50 here. Key players are in for the visitors, and they have prepared well.
Subtotal-170
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
