surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
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Estimated Prizes
this month
£5
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
11 November 2025
02:10 MIN Timberwolves @ UTA Jazz
UTA Jazz
Money Line
50 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-50
I prefer Utah's preparation for this game. They did not play yesterday and have been based at home, so no travel. The Wolves did play yesterday in what was a reasonably taxing game and have had to travel from Sacramento all the way to Utah.
02:10 NO Pelicans @ PHX Suns
NO Pelicans
Money Line
110 WIN
@3.60
Lose
-110
Given the standings, perhaps the visitors will want this one more. They have picked up their level of play in their last few games and have the offense to trouble an average Suns defense.
NO Pelicans 8.50
Pointspread
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
This is a game New Orleans will be targeting as a realistic win. There are not a lot of games on their upcoming schedule against low-tier teams like the Suns. Line a tad high here.
01:37 CLB Blue Jackets @ EDM Oilers
CLB Blue Jackets
Money Line
119 WIN
@2.63
Lose
-119
With little between these two teams, the result could easily go either way. 2.63 odds in a tight matchup has appeal. The Oilers have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed at low odds here.
01:15 PHI Eagles @ GB Packers
PHI Eagles
Money Line
70 WIN
@2.10
Win
77
I like Philly to lead at either halftime or fulltime. That's why I have taken this option as well as the halftime/fulltime double. Green Bay has shown me enough flaws this season and in recent seasons to have me think this is very realistic.
PHI Eagles - GB Packers
Double Result
64 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-64
Philly will know the importance of a strong start playing Green Bay at home. The visitors have a decent first-half record in recent seasons. Philly to lead at halftime, but there is enough class in this Green Bay lineup at home to come back 2nd half.
01:10 SA Spurs @ CHI Bulls
CHI Bulls
Money Line
70 WIN
@2.45
Lose
-70
The Bulls continue to surprise many, myself included. The Spurs' road record in recent seasons speaks for itself and shows their struggles. Price a tad high here.
00:10 LA Lakers @ CHA Hornets
CHA Hornets
Money Line
80 WIN
@3.60
Lose
-80
The lack of high-quality players the Lakers have right now is catching up with them after a hot start. Defensively, the visitors have issues which the Hornets can punish at home. The Lakers are an average road team in recent seasons.
00:10 POR Trail Blazers @ ORL Magic
POR Trail Blazers
Money Line
90 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-90
The Magic's preparation for this game has been average, as is the team news for the hosts. The Blazers have been pumped up ever since they lost their head coach and are enjoying life without him. Perhaps it was a toxic relationship.
00:10 WAS Wizards @ DET Pistons
WAS Wizards
Money Line
190 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-190
Detroit's preparation for this game has not been ideal. Washington has the offense to hurt them. Team news is solid for the visitors too.
Subtotal-746
10 November 2025
22:45 Luke Humphries vs Nathan Aspinall
Nathan Aspinall
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@2.62
Lose
-50
Luke has shown me enough flaws in the last 8 months to be opposed at low odds here against a more than capable player in Aspinall. Some players lose the game in the head when playing the world's elite, such as Littler and Humphries. Aspinall won't.
22:15 Michael Smith vs Alex Spellman
Alex Spellman
Win Match 2-way
60 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-60
Smith has had his struggles for some time now. It's a far cry from the dizzy heights he was at 2 years ago. Spellman has the game and mental strength to test and trouble the Englishman here. Price a tad high.
19:45 Chris Dobey vs Martin Lukeman
Martin Lukeman
Win Match 2-way
61 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-61
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 4.00 here, so very much getting value odds. Dobey is nothing special, especially under pressure. The older, more experienced Lukeman is a solid chance here.
19:15 James Wade vs Ricky Evans
James Wade
Win Match 2-way
59 WIN
@1.67
Win
40
Wade played one of his worst matches for some time yesterday. Quality players often respond strongly in this situation, as he should here against a pretty flawed player in Evans.
02:10 MIN Timberwolves @ SAC Kings
SAC Kings
Money Line
57 WIN
@2.87
Lose
-57
For the Kings, a big focus is to bank their home games. The Wolves on the road in recent seasons have been nothing special. Team news is okay for the hosts here, as is their preparation. Price a tad high at 2.87.
01:40 IND Pacers @ GS Warriors
IND Pacers
Money Line
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 5-1 here, so getting value odds. Given the Pacers' start to their season, they will be desperate here and have enough quality players to right the ship.
Subtotal-238
09 November 2025
23:10 BKN Nets @ NY Knicks
BKN Nets
Money Line
53 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-53
These two teams are strong rivals, so the Nets will really be up for this game. There is enough talent on this Nets roster to be an outside chance here. Price a tad high at 8-1.
BKN Nets 15.50
Pointspread
76 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-76
For the Nets, the Knicks are a strong rival team, so the visitors will be up for this one. While team news on the surface is not great for the Nets, it's still a solid enough roster for this game.
22:45 Luke Woodhouse vs Alexis Toylo
Luke Woodhouse
Win Match 2-way
57 WIN
@1.40
Win
23
Toylo is not impressive and is one of the most flawed players that is left in this field. Woodhouse is a class above and should have too much firepower here. Price a tad high.
21:25 LA Rams @ SF 49ers
SF 49ers
Money Line
57 WIN
@3.20
Lose
-57
Too big of a price here for the 49ers at home against a Rams team that is nothing special, especially defensively and especially on the road. The 49ers will be placing a large emphasis on banking their home games. If they do, a playoff spot will happen. They will draw confidence from beating the Rams in their most recent meeting.
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SF 49ers - LA Rams
Double Result
60 WIN
@4.80
Lose
-60
By taking this selection as well as the 49ers to win the game, in effect, I am taking the 49ers to be ahead at either halftime or full-time. For me, this is realistic enough on form and judging by the recent meetings of these two teams where the 49ers have had their share of success.
20:45 Gary Anderson vs Beau Greaves
Gary Anderson
Win Match 2-way
53 WIN
@1.67
Win
36
Gary's level of play has picked up in the last 6 months and he has been playing at a slightly higher level consistently than Greaves. The price is about right here, so small stakes.
20:15 Stephen Bunting vs Martin Schindler
Stephen Bunting
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@1.57
Lose
-50
I expect Bunting to be very fired up for this game. He lost yesterday to a player miles below him in the world rankings, and he was furious with himself. High-quality players often respond strongly in this situation.
19:45 Daryl Gurney vs Karel Sedlacek
Karel Sedlacek
Win Match 2-way
63 WIN
@2.30
Win
82
I will take on a pretty flawed player in Gurney here. He is a shadow of his former self and has been battling with self-confidence. Sedlacek will fancy his chances here.
16:15 Gian van Veen vs Wessel Nijman
Wessel Nijman
Win Match 2-way
70 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-70
I have this match very close to a 50-50 call, so it makes sense to take the 2.20 price here. Nijman is in some of the best form of his career right now, and even when his level of play has been slightly down, he has been finding a way to win.
03:40 PHX Suns @ LA Clippers
PHX Suns
Money Line
75 WIN
@2.62
Win
122
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.55 here, so getting value odds. Team news is not great for the Clippers here. The Suns have an offense that can hurt a Clippers defense that is nothing special.
Subtotal-103
08 November 2025
21:30 Auckland vs Central Districts One Day Match
Central Districts
Win Match
120 WIN
@1.80
Win
96
The visitors have the more complete team and the better-balanced team. Auckland's bowling attack is not strong, and that should be telling here. Price a tad high at 1.80.
21:30 Northern Districts vs Canterbury One Day Match
Canterbury
Win Match
68 WIN
@1.62
Win
42
Canterbury are the form team in the Ford Trophy with several big wins in a row. The hosts do not have a strong batting lineup, and that should prove costly here.
20:10 France v South Africa
France
To Win
111 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-111
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.10 here. France at home is a very tough proposition, and I like the team named by the hosts.
France 2.50
Handicap
199 WIN
@1.88
Lose
-199
I have more faith in France at home. Not that impressed with the team named by the visitors. In my view, there are a few players short of their top team.
17:40 England v Fiji
England
To Win
80 WIN
@1.05
Win
4
Fiji lack a consistent high enough level of play to get the win here. They can be decent with their level of play, but it's seldom for more than 30 minutes of an 80-minute match. Then you factor in other areas of weakness, and England should be the victor today.
15:10 Scotland v New Zealand
New Zealand
To Win
65 WIN
@1.30
Win
20
Tough to overcome such a poor historical record for Scotland here. This All Black group is well aware of it and will be hell-bent on not creating the wrong kind of history. I like the visitors to win the forward battle, which will set the foundation for the win.
14:30 Ashes Test Series 2025
Australia (inc. Golden Point decider)
110 WIN
@1.04
Win
4
There is a gulf in class between these two teams, which should show in the end result. While England can be competitive, I feel it is a bridge too far for them to win games straight up. The attacking prowess of this Aussie team is too much for the hosts to handle.
14:30 England v Australia
England
To Win
80 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-80
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 4.80 here, so getting value odds. This game has more meaning for England. And at home, where they are strong, they are a decent chance here.
England 14.50
Handicap (2-way)
198 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-198
The Aussies have already achieved what they came to do. While for England, who are a proud and capable home team, it's one last chance to get something from this tour. So I am thinking the home side will want this one more.
Under 38.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Both teams are sound defensively, especially the visitors. Points are likely to be at a premium. This line is two points too high here, in my humble opinion.
13:15 Damon Heta vs Martin Lukeman
Martin Lukeman
Win Match 2-way
60 WIN
@2.95
Lose
-60
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.85 here, so getting value odds. With little between these two players on form, it makes sense to take the 2.95 price.
Martin Lukeman 1.50
Handicap 2-way
110 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-110
Heta has shown me enough flaws the last few months to be opposed at low odds here, against a capable enough player in Lukeman. I fancy Lukeman to deal with the clutch moments in this match better.
13:15 Josh Rock vs Wessel Nijman
Wessel Nijman
Win Match 2-way
53 WIN
@2.10
Win
58
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than evens here. This match is a 50-50 call in my opinion, so any odds evens or above is value here.
Wessel Nijman 1.50
Handicap 2-way
50 WIN
@1.57
Win
28
This is a tight matchup, so it makes sense to take the plus handicap here. Nijman has a serious game and is efficient in both his scoring and double hitting right now.
13:15 Stephen Bunting vs Alexis Toylo
Stephen Bunting
Win Match 2-way
70 WIN
@1.22
Lose
-70
I will take on a flawed player in Toylo. He should be outclassed by Bunting here. Bunting's scoring average and double hitting success rate are significantly better than Toylo. This price is about right though, so not getting carried away with stake size.
12:40 Ireland v Japan
Japan
To Win
50 WIN
@41.00
Lose
-50
Worth a small go at this price. While Ireland will likely win the forward battle, Japan can be competitive in back play, which gives them an outside chance here.
Japan 37.50
Handicap
75 WIN
@2.00
Win
75
Japan are not a poor side, and fresh off last week's humiliation, I expect a strong response. In their backline, in particular, there is enough class to be competitive here.
12:30 Tottenham v Man Utd
Tottenham
155 WIN
@2.80
Lose
-155
I have more faith in Spurs at home than United away at a tough venue. Spurs have most of their key players in and have had a solid preparation. Price a tad high here at 2.80.
Subtotal-660
07 November 2025
02:10 LA Clippers @ PHX Suns
PHX Suns
Money Line
307 WIN
@1.75
Win
230
Team news is not favorable for the Clippers for this game. This lack of high-quality players should well prove costly against a Suns team who has won 3 out of their 4 home games this season and have been reasonably impressive in doing so.
PHX Suns -2.50
Pointspread
80 WIN
@1.91
Win
73
The Suns' points differential at home this season so far is +32 points. And they have won 3 out of 4 at home. The Clippers lack high-quality players for this game, and that should be telling.
01:15 LV Raiders @ DEN Broncos
LV Raiders
Money Line
110 WIN
@4.75
Lose
-110
The Raiders will draw strength and inspiration from a decent recent record against Denver in Denver. I sense the visitors will really be up for this game, versus a strong rival team and under the bright lights of Thursday Night Football. Price a tad high here.
LV Raiders - DEN Broncos
Double Result
120 WIN
@5.25
Lose
-120
By taking this option, as well as the Raiders to win the game, in effect I am taking the Raiders to be leading at either halftime or full-time. For me, this is realistic enough. The Raiders will draw strength from a decent recent record in Denver. Price a tad high here.
00:00 MTL Canadiens @ NJ Devils
MTL Canadiens
Money Line
70 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-70
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection, which I will follow here at what is a decent enough price. It should be no bigger than 2.20 here.
00:00 OTT Senators @ BOS Bruins
BOS Bruins
Money Line
63 WIN
@2.30
Win
82
I have more faith in Boston at home than Ottawa on the road. Team news is favorable for Boston here as well. The price is a tad high here at 2.30.
Subtotal85
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
