surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
2
Estimated Prizes
this month
£10
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
07 January 2026
08:15 Perth Scorchers vs Melbourne Renegades T20
Perth Scorchers
Win Match
72 WIN
@1.53
Lose
-72
Perth are the more balanced team, especially with their bowling and fielding. This superiority in these areas should see them get this result at home, where they are tough to beat.
04:10 DAL Mavericks @ SAC Kings
SAC Kings
Money Line
120 WIN
@2.80
Lose
-120
In recent seasons, the Kings save at least 65% of their big performances for their home games. The Mavs have flaws the Kings can exploit today. This price is a little high here.
SAC Kings 4.50
Pointspread
54 WIN
@1.95
Win
51
The Kings are fresh off a string of underwhelming performances. Pride is a beautiful thing. At home, I expect a strong response here against a pretty flawed road team in Dallas.
02:07 NSH Predators @ EDM Oilers
EDM Oilers
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.71
Win
35
The markets have overreacted to team news here, in my view. On the surface, team news is pretty ordinary for the hosts, but I beg to differ. The roster they are putting out today at home, where they are tough, deserves to be slightly shorter than 1.71.
01:10 LA Lakers @ NO Pelicans
NO Pelicans
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-60
The Lakers have shown me enough flaws on the road in recent seasons to be opposed at low odds here, with a solid home team in the Pelicans. At least 60% of the Pelicans' decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games.
01:10 MIA Heat @ MIN Timberwolves
MIN Timberwolves
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
I will take on a pretty flawed road team here in the heat. At least 65% of the heats decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games. Price is a tad high here.
00:10 ORL Magic @ WAS Wizards
WAS Wizards
Money Line
90 WIN
@3.60
Win
234
This price is a tad high here. For the Magic, at least 60% of their decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games. Like a lot of teams on the road, they are vulnerable.
00:07 VAN Canucks @ BUF Sabres
BUF Sabres
Money Line
69 WIN
@1.61
Win
42
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. I have more faith and trust in Buffalo at home than a pretty flawed Canucks team away.
Subtotal136
06 January 2026
08:15 Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Thunder T20
Adelaide Strikers
Win Match
80 WIN
@1.80
Win
64
I have more faith and trust in Adelaide at home here than a pretty flawed Thunder team away. The Thunder have struggled away this season and are not in great form right now. This price is a tad high here.
03:50 Auckland W vs Otago W T20
Auckland W
Win Match
220 WIN
@1.85
Win
187
Auckland are superior in most areas: batting, bowling, with fielding quite even. Being a home game for Auckland, their class should shine through and they should get the result here.
03:10 GS Warriors @ LA Clippers
LA Clippers
Money Line
90 WIN
@2.25
Win
112
The Warriors' body of work on the road in recent seasons does not make impressive reading. In the last four seasons they have barely a 50 percent win rate. The Clippers at home are a tough test here.
LA Clippers 3.50
Pointspread
51 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow at what is a generous line. The Warriors have shown me enough flaws on the road in recent seasons to be opposed here.
03:10 UTA Jazz @ POR Trail Blazers
UTA Jazz
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-60
Portland's prep for this game has not been great, and they have plenty of defensive flaws that this solid Jazz offense can exploit. This price is too high here at 3.00.
UTA Jazz 6.00
Pointspread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
This line is too high by at least one full point, in my view. The Jazz have the offense to hurt a Blazers defense that is pretty ordinary, and that is being kind.
01:40 DEN Nuggets @ PHI 76ers
DEN Nuggets
Money Line
80 WIN
@7.50
Win
520
Denver is very short-handed for this game. However, I have enough faith and belief in the players they have for this game. It's still a solid enough outfit. Price is too high here.
01:10 CHA Hornets @ OKC Thunder
CHA Hornets
Money Line
50 WIN
@8.50
Win
375
Too big of a price here. The Thunder's prep for this game has not been ideal, and perhaps some complacency will be a factor. The Hornets have a solid offense to test and trouble the hosts.
01:10 PHX Suns @ HOU Rockets
HOU Rockets
Money Line
70 WIN
@1.36
Win
25
I prefer the Rockets prep for this game. The Suns played in a taxing game yesterday and had some travel. Houston did not play yesterday and has been based at home. The superior team should come through here.
Subtotal1219
05 January 2026
02:40 MEM Grizzlies @ LA Lakers
MEM Grizzlies
Money Line
64 WIN
@3.10
Lose
-64
Don't really agree with this price. Memphis are fighting hard for every win possible for a playoff spot. And now their roster resembles a playoff roster, which it didn't earlier. They can do some damage. I feel on offense they can trouble an average Lakers defense today.
Subtotal-64
04 January 2026
21:25 MIA Dolphins @ NE Patriots
MIA Dolphins
Money Line
70 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-70
Whatever happens in this game, the Patriots have much, much bigger games in the coming weeks. So perhaps they won't be as focused on this game as they should be. Miami has a capable enough offense to cause the hosts issues here.
MIA Dolphins 13.50
Point Spread
57 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-57
I question whether the Patriots' focus and hunger for this game will be high, given what is around the corner for them in the coming weeks. The line is a tad high here.
21:25 NY Jets @ BUF Bills
NY Jets
Money Line
77 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-77
Where Buffalo is weak is defensively. Given this, their opponents always have a starter's chance. I have to think the desire for the Jets will be high here. They are a strong conference rival team. It's the last game of their season.
NY Jets 10.00
Point Spread
51 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-51
The Bills have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed at low odds here today. Surely this is a game the Jets will be up for against a strong conference rival and their last game this season.
20:07 PIT Penguins @ CLB Blue Jackets
PIT Penguins
Money Line
58 WIN
@2.10
Win
64
I will take on a pretty flawed Blue Jackets team here. Pittsburgh bring a decent attacking game, which spells trouble for the hosts, who have issues defensively.
18:00 CLE Browns @ CIN Bengals
CLE Browns
Money Line
80 WIN
@4.20
Win
256
There is not much between these two teams. I give the Browns at least a 30% chance of winning here, so 4.20 odds are value odds in my view.
CLE Browns 9.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
This line has gotten too high now, in my opinion. With little between these two teams, it makes sense to take a +9.5 head start, which, in my view, is generous here.
18:00 GB Packers @ MIN Vikings
MIN Vikings
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.20
Win
10
The quarterback set to start for the Packers here is very inexperienced at NFL level and showed plenty of flaws in college. This game has more meaning for the Vikings. The Packers' care factor for this game is not high, with much bigger fish to fry in the coming weeks.
18:00 NO Saints @ ATL Falcons
ATL Falcons
Money Line
57 WIN
@1.57
Win
32
This game has more importance and meaning for the Falcons, and at home they should have too much class for a pretty flawed Saints team. Price a tad high here.
18:00 TEN Titans @ JAX Jaguars
TEN Titans
Money Line
53 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-53
The Titans have been fighting hard in their recent matches and have been reasonably impressive. No reason to think it will not continue here. When the desire to do well for yourself and your teammates is very much there, that is part of the battle won.
17:30 Man City v Chelsea
Man City
50 WIN
@1.57
Lose
-50
Price is about right here, so small stakes. Man City at home is in the toughest assignments in the EPL. One which a pretty flawed Chelsea team will probably fail.
15:00 Everton v Brentford
Brentford
53 WIN
@3.10
Win
111
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here at an attractive price. The hosts' preparation for this game has not been ideal. Price is a tad high here in my view.
15:00 Leicester Tigers v Saracens
Leicester Tigers
To Win
57 WIN
@2.20
Win
68
While team news is not great for the Tigers, I have enough faith in the players named to put in a decent showing at home. The forward battle is tight and can even be won by the hosts, which gives them a solid chance here.
12:30 Leeds v Man Utd
Leeds
60 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-60
Leeds at home with a decent prep and a solid recent form line should put in a strong performance here. For me this game is very even, so 2.75 is value odds.
10:15 Perth Scorchers vs Adelaide Strikers T20
Adelaide Strikers
Win Match
56 WIN
@2.45
Lose
-56
Perth's prep for this game has been less than ideal. Adelaide are a nicely balanced team, and the edge in the bowling is with the visitors. This price is a tad high at 2.45.
07:05 Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades T20
Melbourne Renegades
Win Match
51 WIN
@2.50
Win
76
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.45 here. The Stars have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed at low odds here against what will be a hungry and fired-up Renegades team.
03:10 UTA Jazz @ GS Warriors
UTA Jazz
Money Line
53 WIN
@4.60
Lose
-53
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. Team news is not great for the Warriors. The Warriors' weakness is their defense. Utah has a solid offense that can trouble them.
01:40 HOU Rockets @ DAL Mavericks
DAL Mavericks
Money Line
80 WIN
@3.80
Win
224
Houston has 10 losses this season. A very high number of these have been on the road: 8 to be exact. Dallas at home is a tough test. This price is too high here.
01:10 POR Trail Blazers @ SA Spurs
POR Trail Blazers
Money Line
65 WIN
@3.80
Win
182
The Blazers are in some of their best form for some time right now. They have won 3 out of their last 4 and 6 out of their last 10. They have the offense to hurt the Spurs today.
00:40 PHI 76ers @ NY Knicks
NY Knicks
Money Line
60 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-60
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection. The Knicks have been a beast at home this season, winning 15 out of their 18 played. The price is too high here.
Subtotal483
03 January 2026
21:07 MTL Canadiens @ STL Blues
MTL Canadiens
Money Line
53 WIN
@1.73
Lose
-53
I prefer the prep for this game of the Habs. It has been more settled, and they are more rested. They have the attacking game to really hurt St. Louis today.
MTL Canadiens -1.50
Puck Line
50 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-50
The Habs have a in-form and potent attacking game. They have been racking up the goals. This spells trouble for an average St. Louis defense here. Price a tad high.
20:20 Luke Littler vs Gian van Veen
Luke Littler
Win Match 2-way
53 WIN
@1.44
Win
23
Van Veen is more emotional. Luke has the mental side in better shape, and this will serve him better under pressure and at key moments. That could be the difference here.
Gian van Veen 2.50
Handicap 2-way
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
A tight finish seems likely here in my view. There is little between the form of these two players, who both have their games in superb shape right now.
Over 10.50
Total Sets
50 WIN
@1.73
Lose
-50
On form, this is a pretty even matchup. Both players are more than capable of taking their fair share of sets, which pushes this tip over here. Price is a tad high.
Luke Littler
Win 1st Set
57 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-57
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. Luke has a superb first-set record this event and is mentally more stable than his opponent, so he should settle quicker.
Luke Littler to win 7-6
Leg Betting
54 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-54
Given how even the form of these two players is, a tight final scoreline seems quite likely here. I feel Luke has the mental side in better shape, and that could be the difference.
20:07 BUF Sabres @ CLB Blue Jackets
BUF Sabres
Money Line
55 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-55
I will take on a pretty flawed Blue Jackets team here, who are struggling defensively. Buffalo have the attacking game to hurt them today. Price a tad high here.
20:00 Bordeaux v Racing 92
Bordeaux
To Win
207 WIN
@1.10
Win
21
I will take on a pretty flawed Racing team who continue to struggle in their away games. Bordeaux at home, with the likely teams to be named, should have too much firepower here.
17:30 Leinster v Connacht
Leinster
To Win
80 WIN
@1.06
Win
5
The forward battle here looks quite one-sided. Connacht away at such a tough venue can only see this result. Price about right though, so small stakes.
17:30 Northampton Saints v Harlequins
Harlequins
To Win
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
Just a small speculative one here. Hey, if the hosts have an off day, which has happened a few times this season, then anything is possible. Price is about right here, so small stakes.
Harlequins 21.50
Handicap
57 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-57
Line is too high by one full point here, in my opinion. Quins will be desperate and offer enough in attack to stay within this number against a home side that is nothing special defensively.
15:35 Montauban v Clermont
Montauban
To Win
93 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-93
Don't agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.25 here, so this is very much getting value odds. At home, Montauban should win the forward battle, which will set the foundation for the win.
Montauban 8.50
Handicap
120 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-120
Home advantage is significant here. I will take on a pretty flawed away team in Clermont here. The hosts should win the forward battle, which will set up the win.
15:35 Montpellier v Bayonne
Bayonne
To Win
80 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-80
The forward battle looks tight here and can even be won by the visitors. Bayonne also has enough class in the backs to be a solid chance here. This price should be no bigger than 3-1.
Bayonne 11.50
Handicap
290 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-290
I have this game as a more even matchup than the bookies. Bayonne have the forward pack to compete well here against a Montpellier team that is nothing special. Line too high here.
15:05 Bath v Exeter Chiefs
Exeter Chiefs
To Win
53 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-53
Not without a hope here. The visitors can match or better Bath in back play and kicking, both punting and goal kicking. I feel Exeter have the attacking game to be a solid chance here. No disrespect to Bath, who are a decent side themselves.
Exeter Chiefs 11.50
Handicap
95 WIN
@1.91
Win
86
This will be a dogfight, in which Exeter should compete well. They can match the hosts in most areas. The edge is with Bath in the forward battle, but the visitors should match or better the hosts in several other areas.
13:30 Perpignan v Toulouse
Perpignan
To Win
57 WIN
@3.50
Win
142
Too big of a price here for Perpignan at home with a likely strong enough team to be named. The forward battle here should be reasonably tight, which gives this tip a solid chance.
Perpignan 9.50
Handicap
73 WIN
@1.80
Win
58
Home advantage here is significant. I have more faith and trust in Perpignan at home putting in a strong performance than Toulouse away. The forward battle should be reasonably tight here.
08:15 Sydney Thunder vs Hobart Hurricanes T20
Sydney Thunder
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.30
Lose
-50
The Thunder badly need to start banking their home games. Hobart's prep for this game has not been ideal, and it is inferior to the hosts. The Thunder have a capable enough player list to right the ship and get the win here.
03:25 Central Districts vs Canterbury T20
Central Districts
Win Match
55 WIN
@2.30
Lose
-55
The hosts have six high-quality cricketers in their playing eleven. They know the importance of banking their home games to achieve their goal of making the playoffs. Price too high here at 2.30.
02:10 SAC Kings @ PHX Suns
SAC Kings
Money Line
52 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-52
The Kings were pretty embarrassed yesterday in their most recent game. I expect a strong response here. They get redemption against a pretty flawed team in the Suns. Price is a tad high here.
01:10 ORL Magic @ CHI Bulls
CHI Bulls
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.75
Win
88
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.65, so getting value odds. I have more faith in the Bulls at home than the Magic away, with a less-than-ideal preparation.
01:10 POR Trail Blazers @ NO Pelicans
POR Trail Blazers
Money Line
53 WIN
@1.67
Win
36
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. The hosts are the more flawed team, especially defensively. Price a tad high here.
01:07 NY Rangers @ FLA Panthers
FLA Panthers
Money Line
57 WIN
@1.73
Lose
-57
I have more faith in Florida at home with a settled prep for this game. The Rangers' prep has been less than ideal, and they have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed here.
Subtotal-867
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
