surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
3
Estimated Prizes
this month
£40
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
10 January 2026
15:15 Clermont v Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow Warriors
To Win
50 WIN
@1.28
Win
14
I will take on a pretty flawed Clermont team who, other than playing at home, don't have much going for them. Glasgow bring a decent attacking game, which will give the hosts all kinds of problems today.
13:00 Bulls v Bristol Bears
Bristol Bears
To Win
60 WIN
@4.00
Win
180
Bristol bring a reasonably cohesive attacking game. This can trouble a Bulls defense that is nothing special. This average defense the Bulls have gives the visitors a solid chance here.
08:15 Melbourne Renegades vs Melbourne Stars T20
Melbourne Renegades
Win Match
56 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-56
The Stars are on a bad losing streak and low on confidence right now. The Renegades at home will fancy themselves for another win over their Melbourne rivals. This price should be no bigger than evens here.
04:55 Canterbury vs Auckland T20
Auckland
Win Match
57 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-57
The wheels have been falling off Canterbury since a few of their NZ international players left the playing group. This shaky form makes them a solid lay against a decent enough Auckland team.
03:10 HOU Rockets @ POR Trail Blazers
HOU Rockets
Money Line
54 WIN
@1.44
Lose
-54
Houston are a nicely balanced team and one of the better teams defensively in the league. Portland will struggle with this defense today. This price is a tad high here.
02:10 NY Knicks @ PHX Suns
PHX Suns
Money Line
67 WIN
@2.05
Win
70
Don't really agree with this price. The Knicks are an average road team. At least 65% of their ordinary performances have been on the road in recent seasons. Price is a tad high here.
01:10 Canterbury W vs Auckland W T20
Canterbury W
Win Match
51 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-51
This is a bigger game for Canterbury than it is for Auckland given the standings. So they may be more desperate and want it more at home. Auckland has a shaky and ordinary body of work away from home in recent seasons.
01:10 OKC Thunder @ MEM Grizzlies
MEM Grizzlies
Money Line
93 WIN
@2.90
Lose
-93
The Thunder are in the worst slump of the season right now. Memphis are fighting hard for every win for a playoff spot. At home, a strong performance is likely here.
MEM Grizzlies 5.50
Pointspread
53 WIN
@1.95
Win
50
The Thunder are in their worst form of the season right now at this point in time and are vulnerable today against a solid home team in Memphis, who have had a decent prep for this game.
00:40 LA Clippers @ BKN Nets
BKN Nets
Money Line
130 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-130
I have more faith and trust in the Nets at home than a poor road team in the Clippers. At least 65% of the Clippers' ordinary performances in recent seasons have been on the road.
00:10 NO Pelicans @ WAS Wizards
WAS Wizards
Money Line
80 WIN
@2.30
Lose
-80
New Orleans are a flawed team that has been playing well only in patches. This will be unlikely to get the result here against a solid home team in the Wizards, who are in good form right now.
00:10 PHI 76ers @ ORL Magic
PHI 76ers
Money Line
59 WIN
@1.75
Win
44
The superior team should prevail here. Team news is not great for the Magic. The hosts have been struggling on offense for a couple of weeks now, and this should be costly today.
00:10 TOR Raptors @ BOS Celtics
BOS Celtics
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.25
Win
12
Boston doesn't drop many of their home games. Fresh off a pretty embarrassing home loss, I expect them to respond strongly here against a pretty flawed Toronto team.
Subtotal-151
09 January 2026
20:00 Brive v Biarritz
Biarritz
To Win
63 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-63
I give the visitors no less than a 25% chance of a win here, so 6.50 is value odds. The hosts only have a small edge in the forward battle and, again, a small edge only in back play.
Biarritz 15.50
Handicap
80 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-80
Would not surprise me to see a narrow margin of victory here. In most areas, Biarritz can match the hosts or be competitive for the 80 minutes. Line a tad high here.
20:00 Castres v Bath
Castres
To Win
53 WIN
@3.20
Lose
-53
The hosts can match or better Bath in back play, while the visitors should win the forward battle. At home, Castres will be a solid test for a Bath team that lacks cohesion in their back play.
Castres 7.50
Handicap
77 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-77
Castres at home will be a solid test for a Bath team, who, like most teams, are more vulnerable in their away games. Bath also lacks cohesion in their back play. Line a tad high here.
20:00 Edinburgh v Gloucester
Edinburgh
To Win
400 WIN
@1.05
Win
20
Team news is not great for the visitors, who have a pretty ordinary away record in recent seasons. This should be a bridge too far. The hosts have too much class.
18:30 Dax v Agen
Dax
To Win
59 WIN
@1.36
Win
21
Dax have the more potent and cohesive attacking game, and that should be the difference here. Plus all the benefits of playing at home. Price a tad high here.
18:30 Oyonnax v Carcassonne
Oyonnax
To Win
200 WIN
@1.03
Win
6
Can only see this result here. The visitors are too flawed in too many areas, and away from home are a solid lay today at a very tough venue.
18:30 Soyaux Angouleme v Nevers
Soyaux Angouleme
To Win
50 WIN
@1.30
Win
15
Another well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here. Nevers away have a pretty ordinary record in recent seasons.
18:30 Valence Romans v Beziers
Beziers
To Win
81 WIN
@6.40
Lose
-81
This price should be no bigger than 5-1 here. The forward battle should be a tough fight that is unlikely to be one-sided, which gives the visitors a solid chance here.
Beziers 15.50
Handicap
199 WIN
@1.85
Win
169
This line is too high by one full point, in my view. The forward battle here is unlikely to be one-sided, which gives the visitors every chance of being competitive.
18:30 Vannes v Mont de Marsan
Vannes
To Win
300 WIN
@1.01
Win
3
Vannes at home are tough to beat at the best of times. A flawed Mont-de-Marsan team is highly unlikely to have much joy here today.
18:00 Aurillac v Colomiers
Colomiers 1.50
Handicap
60 WIN
@1.83
Win
50
Good deal of sharp money around for the visitors for this game, which I like and will follow here. Team news is not great for the hosts, which won't help them today.
08:35 Brisbane Roar v Auckland FC
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
53 WIN
@2.05
Win
56
Auckland are a pretty sound defensive side and tough to break down. The sharp money indicates that both teams may not score here. The price is a tad high.
Auckland FC & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@4.75
Lose
-50
Auckland are the likely winners of this game as they are the more balanced team and are fresh off an underwhelming performance. Being the better side they should respond strongly to this.
03:25 Wellington vs Otago T20
Wellington
Win Match
70 WIN
@1.67
Lose
-70
Wellington lost their last home game in heartbreaking fashion. They take great pride in banking their home games. Look for a strong response here against a pretty flawed Otago team.
02:10 DAL Mavericks @ UTA Jazz
UTA Jazz
Money Line
63 WIN
@2.70
Win
107
Dallas has one of the worst road records in the entire league, at 4-12. In recent seasons their road record has been pretty ordinary as well. The Jazz at home should put in a strong performance here.
01:10 MIA Heat @ CHI Bulls
MIA Heat
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.40
Void
0
The Bulls have issues that are reasonably serious defensively. The Heat bring a pretty potent offense that can exploit this. The Bulls' prep for this game has been less than ideal.
00:10 IND Pacers @ CHA Hornets
IND Pacers
Money Line
77 WIN
@2.62
Win
125
I will take the pretty flawed Charlotte team here, who has not had a decent prep for this game. The Pacers have a solid offense that can trouble an ordinary Hornets defense.
Subtotal98
08 January 2026
23:40 Wellington W vs Otago W T20
Wellington W
Win Match
69 WIN
@1.42
Win
29
The hosts are fresh off a loss. Losses for the reigning champs have been rare this season and last season. I expect a strong response at home from a quality side.
20:00 Provence v Grenoble
Grenoble
To Win
53 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-53
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 4-1 here, so getting value odds. I think the visitors can be competitive in most areas, including the forward battle.
Grenoble 12.50
Handicap
67 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-67
There is not too much between these two teams. In a reasonably even matchup, it makes sense to take the +12.5 head start here. The forward battle looks quite even.
08:15 Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Sixers T20
Sydney Sixers
Win Match
70 WIN
@2.15
Win
80
I will take on a pretty flawed Stars team here, especially with their bowling. The Sixers have a pretty potent batting lineup to hurt the home side. This price is a tad high at 2.15.
03:10 HOU Rockets @ POR Trail Blazers
POR Trail Blazers
Money Line
130 WIN
@3.40
Win
312
The Rockets have 11 losses this season. A high number of these have been on the road??"9 to be exact. This is alarming for a team of their status. Portland at home, with a decent prep, are a solid chance here.
POR Trail Blazers 7.50
Pointspread
80 WIN
@1.91
Win
73
The Rockets' struggles on the road have been for all to see this season, with 9 of their 11 losses occurring in road games. Portland provides a tough test today.
03:10 MIL Bucks @ GS Warriors
GS Warriors
Money Line
70 WIN
@1.44
Win
31
In recent seasons the Warriors' home record speaks for itself. It is highly impressive, with around an 80% win rate. The hosts should have too much class for a pretty flawed road team in the Bucks.
01:10 Northern Districts vs Canterbury T20
Canterbury
Win Match
120 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-120
I will take on a pretty flawed ND team here who lack high-quality players, especially in their batting, which is crucial. Canterbury are in the winning habit right now and should be too strong here.
00:40 LA Clippers @ NY Knicks
NY Knicks
Money Line
110 WIN
@1.57
Win
63
I have more faith and trust in the Knicks at home than the Clippers away. The Knicks have been a beast at home this season with a 15-4 record. Vastly different from the Clippers' 4-13 road record.
00:40 NO Pelicans @ ATL Hawks
NO Pelicans
Money Line
70 WIN
@4.60
Lose
-70
Atlanta are 0-8 in their last eight home games when favored by nine points or more. The heavy favorite tag is clearly not something they enjoy. New Orleans has a solid offense that can hurt them.
NO Pelicans 10.50
Pointspread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
The Hawks have really struggled recently at home when they have been heavy favorites. It's clearly not something they enjoy. New Orleans has the offense to hurt them today.
00:10 DEN Nuggets @ BOS Celtics
BOS Celtics
Money Line
70 WIN
@1.30
Lose
-70
I will take on a Denver team here who lacks high-quality players right now. Boston at home has the offense to hurt them today. This price is a tad high at 1.30.
00:10 WAS Wizards @ PHI 76ers
WAS Wizards
Money Line
50 WIN
@8.50
Lose
-50
Too big of a price here. The Wizards have good form and a solid offense. This will test and trouble a Philly defense that is nothing special. This price should be no bigger than 6-1 here.
Subtotal108
07 January 2026
19:30 Man City v Brighton
Brighton
76 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-76
Too big of a price here. It should be no bigger than 5-1, which is where several bookies have it. The hosts are in recent shaky form, and Brighton has a solid attacking game that can hurt them.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
69 WIN
@1.60
Win
41
Both teams offer plenty attacking-wise, especially the hosts. The sharp money on this game indicates it will be either reasonably high-scoring or high-scoring.
Draw & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
90 WIN
@6.00
Win
450
The sharp money on this game indicates there will be goals and that it could be reasonably high-scoring. On form, this is a reasonably even matchup, which gives the draw a solid chance here.
08:15 Perth Scorchers vs Melbourne Renegades T20
Perth Scorchers
Win Match
72 WIN
@1.53
Lose
-72
Perth are the more balanced team, especially with their bowling and fielding. This superiority in these areas should see them get this result at home, where they are tough to beat.
04:10 DAL Mavericks @ SAC Kings
SAC Kings
Money Line
120 WIN
@2.80
Lose
-120
In recent seasons, the Kings save at least 65% of their big performances for their home games. The Mavs have flaws the Kings can exploit today. This price is a little high here.
SAC Kings 4.50
Pointspread
54 WIN
@1.95
Win
51
The Kings are fresh off a string of underwhelming performances. Pride is a beautiful thing. At home, I expect a strong response here against a pretty flawed road team in Dallas.
02:07 NSH Predators @ EDM Oilers
EDM Oilers
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.71
Win
35
The markets have overreacted to team news here, in my view. On the surface, team news is pretty ordinary for the hosts, but I beg to differ. The roster they are putting out today at home, where they are tough, deserves to be slightly shorter than 1.71.
01:10 LA Lakers @ NO Pelicans
NO Pelicans
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-60
The Lakers have shown me enough flaws on the road in recent seasons to be opposed at low odds here, with a solid home team in the Pelicans. At least 60% of the Pelicans' decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games.
01:10 MIA Heat @ MIN Timberwolves
MIN Timberwolves
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
I will take on a pretty flawed road team here in the heat. At least 65% of the heats decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games. Price is a tad high here.
00:10 ORL Magic @ WAS Wizards
WAS Wizards
Money Line
90 WIN
@3.60
Win
234
This price is a tad high here. For the Magic, at least 60% of their decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games. Like a lot of teams on the road, they are vulnerable.
00:07 VAN Canucks @ BUF Sabres
BUF Sabres
Money Line
69 WIN
@1.61
Win
42
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. I have more faith and trust in Buffalo at home than a pretty flawed Canucks team away.
Subtotal551
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
