surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
2
Estimated Prizes
this month
£30
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
All sports
17 August 2025
20:30 DAL Wings @ LV Aces
DAL Wings
Money Line
50 WIN
@5.00
Open
0
The Wings' strength is their offense. Same for Vegas, and the hosts' defense is average by league standards. The Wings can exploit this today. Price is too high here.
18:00 IND Fever @ CON Sun
CON Sun
Money Line
72 WIN
@3.40
Win
173
70% of the Suns' decent performances this season and last season have occurred in their home games. The Fever remain without two key players, one in particular. Price a tad high here.
07:05 North Queensland Cowboys v Newcastle Knights
Newcastle Knights
To Win
202 WIN
@2.80
Lose
-202
The Cowboys have the losing habit right now and are finding it incredibly difficult to break that cycle. Team news is decent for Newcastle here. This price should be no bigger than 2.70 here.
05:00 Wests Tigers v Manly Sea Eagles
Wests Tigers
To Win
180 WIN
@2.35
Win
243
At least 65% of the Tigers' decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games. While for Manly, the same is true at even a higher percentage. And their away games have not been kind to them. Price too high here.
Subtotal214
16 August 2025
22:10 Argentina v New Zealand
Argentina
To Win
335 WIN
@3.40
Lose
-335
Argentina at home is a tough assignment for this All Blacks side. Both the forward battle and the backline clash look reasonably even in my view here. Some international teams have never beaten the All Blacks, or wins have been very rare. This results in a lack of self-belief they can break the drought. This is not the case for Argentina these days, as they have a few wins in recent seasons versus the All Blacks. Price too high here.
Argentina 7.50
Handicap
500 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-500
NZ are a quality side, but looking at their results the last few seasons, it shows they are much more vulnerable away from home. A high percentage of their ordinary or worse performances have been away. Line a tad high here.
Over 55.50
Total Points
60 WIN
@1.91
Win
55
Neither team is great defensively, and both offer enough in their attacking games, particularly the visitors. This total is a little low here, in my opinion. A good deal of sharp money is around for this over, which I like and will follow here.
22:00 New Zealand Darts Masters
Gerwyn Price
35 EW
@6.00
Lose
-70
The four most likely players to win this event, in my view, are Littler, Humphries, Price, or Bunting. The odds on Littler and Humphries are too low, so I will go with Price and Bunting.
Stephen Bunting
60 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-60
Seems a generous price for a man who has achieved a lot of success in the past couple of years. All of this field who are not the PDC pros are not capable of winning this event, creating some nice value elsewhere on the likes of Bunting.
16:10 South Africa v Australia
Australia
To Win
50 WIN
@8.50
Win
375
Low confidence on this one, so small stakes. The forward battle will be a tough ask for the Aussies to win. But the visitors can match or better the hosts in back play. This gives them a puncher's chance.
Australia 16.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Generous head start here. South Africa don't have a great recent historical record of blowing out tier-one nation teams. There is enough quality in this Aussie team, especially in the backs, to keep this game close.
Under 55.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
The Aussies will have trouble scoring many, as the hosts have a very sound defense. The Aussies themselves have a solid defense and lack cohesion in their attacking game.
10:35 South Sydney Rabbitohs v Parramatta Eels
South Sydney Rabbitohs
To Win
190 WIN
@2.35
Win
257
I like the Souths team named. They will see this game as a realistic win against what is a pretty flawed Eels side. This 2.35 price should be no bigger than 2.30 here in my opinion.
09:30 Luke Littler vs Mike De Decker
Mike De Decker
Win Match 2-way
55 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-55
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.90 here, so some minor value. The gulf in class and recent form between these two players is small/narrow.
08:30 Brisbane Broncos v Dolphins
Dolphins
To Win
130 WIN
@2.15
Lose
-130
Team news is very ordinary for Brisbane. They will be without a few key players. The Dolphins have a very decent and cohesive attacking game, which will punish an average Brisbane defense.
08:30 Luke Humphries vs Damon Heta
Damon Heta
Win Match 2-way
70 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-70
Luke has been off his game so far down under. Both with his scoring and double hitting, but especially his scoring. Heta will provide a tough test here.
06:00 Cronulla Sharks v Gold Coast Titans
Gold Coast Titans
To Win
110 WIN
@3.20
Lose
-110
The effort has really been there from Gold Coast in recent weeks, which is sometimes not the case for teams at the bottom of the table. They seem very keen to avoid the wooden spoon and end their season well. Price a tad high here.
03:10 SD Padres @ LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.67
Win
34
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. The Dodgers are a beast at home with a 38-24 record. Of the Padres' 52 losses this season, 32 have been on the road. Price a tad high here.
03:00 SEA Storm @ ATL Dream
Under 159.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Two decent enough defenses here. And neither offense is anything special. Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here.
00:30 GS Valkyries @ CHI Sky
CHI Sky
Money Line
50 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-50
This is a well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here. Golden State, like most teams, is more vulnerable on the road. They have 15 losses this season; 10 of these have been on the road. Price is a tad high here.
CHI Sky 7.50
Pointspread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Golden State has 10 road losses this season and 15 losses in total. So a very high number of their total losses have been on the road. The line is too high here.
00:30 LA Sparks @ DAL Wings
DAL Wings
Money Line
60 WIN
@2.87
Lose
-60
Dallas has some impressive home wins this season. They include Golden State, Atlanta, Washington, Phoenix, and New York. These are all teams either of a similar standard or a higher standard to the Sparks. Price a tad high here.
DAL Wings 5.50
Pointspread
70 WIN
@1.95
Win
66
Dallas will see this game as a realistic win, unlike some of their other upcoming games. So they will be focused and hungry here. They have 9 wins this season. 5 of these have been in their home games, and they have beaten several quality teams this season at home.
00:30 WAS Mystics @ IND Fever
WAS Mystics
Money Line
50 WIN
@4.00
Win
150
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.90, so getting value odds. Team news remains pretty average for the Fever. Washington is hunting a playoff spot, so will be hungry here.
Subtotal-511
15 August 2025
11:30 Chris Dobey vs Simon Whitlock
Simon Whitlock
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Dobey is the 2nd weakest PDC pro in this field and can make a strong argument he is the weakest. The Wizard provides a tough test. The big occasion he will handle well, being so used to it. Price a tad high here.
11:00 Luke Littler vs Mark Cleaver
Luke Littler
Win Match 2-way
300 WIN
@1.02
Win
6
Cleaver is outclassed here. While the Kiwi has picked up the level of his play the past 2 years, it's not to a high enough level to trouble Littler. Price a tad high here.
Luke Littler
Most 180s
50 WIN
@1.18
Lose
-50
Littler, along with Humphries, Price, and Rock, are the top PDC pros in the field in terms of hitting 180's. Cleaver may get 2 or 3 here, but that won't be enough to get more than Littler.
11:00 Sydney Roosters v Canterbury Bulldogs
Sydney Roosters
To Win
50 WIN
@2.20
Win
60
The Bulldogs played a very taxing game last round, which is not ideal preparation for the Roosters, who bring a cohesive and decent attacking game. Price a tad high here.
10:30 Luke Humphries vs Haupai Puha
Haupai Puha
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
Mentally, Puha, like Tata, won't lose this match before it has started. He has plenty of confidence in his own ability, and his game is in decent shape right now. Price too big here.
Haupai Puha 3.50
Handicap 2-way
90 WIN
@1.73
Win
66
Along with Tata, Puha is the strongest Kiwi player in this field. His game is in decent shape right now and he has the advantage of playing at home. Luke wasn't sharp at all in the Aussie event last weekend.
10:00 Stephen Bunting vs Ben Robb
Stephen Bunting
Win Match 2-way
60 WIN
@1.14
Win
8
I have this price at no bigger than 1.12, so some minor value at 1.14. Robb has failed to deliver time after time at this level, and the standard of his play has been on the decline the past 12 months.
09:30 Damon Heta vs Dean Reyland
Damon Heta
Win Match 2-way
300 WIN
@1.04
Win
12
Heta should have no trouble here putting away Reyland, who in my opinion is the weakest player in the entire field. Heta is on a completely different level. Price a tad high here.
Damon Heta
Most 180s
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Reyland is not strong with his scoring and is lucky to even be in this event. Heta is on a much higher level with his scoring and should have more 180's.
Under 7.50
Total Legs
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
Heta should make short work of Reyland, who is, in my opinion, the weakest player at this event. Reyland has overachieved to even make this event. Price a tad high here.
09:00 Gerwyn Price vs Jonny Tata
Jonny Tata
Win Match 2-way
120 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-120
Don't really agree with this price. I have played Tata before in Wellington, New Zealand. Mentally, he is strong and has a decent game, both with scoring and double hitting. This price should be no bigger than 7-1 here. Getting much better than that.
Jonny Tata 3.50
Handicap 2-way
400 WIN
@2.10
Win
440
Tata is ranked in the top 2 players in New Zealand. His recent form in televised events is solid. He will handle this massive occasion better than most qualifiers as mentally he is strong. Price isn't playing his best darts right now.
09:00 New Zealand Warriors v St George/Illawarra Dragons
New Zealand Warriors
To Win
50 WIN
@1.52
Win
26
70% or higher of the Dragons' decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games. Away, they have generally been poor. The Warriors will want this one bad to get their season back on track.
08:30 Josh Rock vs John Hurring
Josh Rock
Win Match 2-way
100 WIN
@1.02
Win
2
Hurring is out of his depth here. The gulf in class between these two players is very large, and it should show in the end result. There are doubts over how Hurring will handle the massive occasion mentally too.
08:00 Mike De Decker vs Gordon Mathers
Gordon Mathers
Win Match 2-way
90 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-90
Don't really agree with this price. Mathers is a decent scorer. It's not uncommon to see his 3-dart average be in the mid-90s. A repeat here and he can be right in this against the weakest PDC pro in the field.
Gordon Mathers 3.50
Handicap 2-way
128 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-128
Any player qualifying out of Australia should be respected. The Aussie darts scene is stronger than New Zealand's. Mathers has serious game, especially with his scoring. De Decker is the weakest PDC pro in the field. Handicap a tad generous here.
Subtotal207
14 August 2025
10:50 Penrith Panthers v Melbourne Storm
Melbourne Storm
To Win
90 WIN
@2.60
Push
0
The Storm have the edge here in the attacking game. Penrith's attacking game has been lacking cohesion most of the season. The Storm will be up for this one and will want to make a statement and leave some mental scarring on the Panthers should they meet again in the playoffs.
02:38 LA Dodgers @ LA Angels
LA Angels
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.75
Win
88
Seems a generous price here. This is clearly a series the Angels are up for, against one of their strongest rival teams. The Dodgers are just 30-28 on the road this season, compared to the Angels' 32-30 at home. Price is a tad high here.
00:10 ATL Braves @ NY Mets
ATL Braves
Money Line
80 WIN
@2.75
Win
140
It's still possible for the Braves to make the playoffs. While this is still the case, you know the effort will be there. The Mets do not have a great recent record when fresh off a blowout win.
00:05 MIN Twins @ NY Yankees
MIN Twins
Money Line
52 WIN
@2.30
Win
68
Reasonably favorable starting pitching matchup here for the Twins, who are fighting hard for every win to earn a playoff spot. This 2.30 price should be no bigger than 2.25 here.
Subtotal296
13 August 2025
16:00 Iga Swiatek vs Sorana Cirstea
Sorana Cirstea
Win Match
150 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-150
Some minor value at this price. I think it should be no bigger than 9-1 here. Swiatek has two losses in the last couple of months when heavily favored, clearly not a tag she enjoys. Cirstea has a solid all-round game.
Iga Swiatek to win 2 - 1
Set Betting
100 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-100
By backing this option as well as Cirstea to win, in effect, I am backing Cirstea to win a set. Which, on form the last 2 months, is realistic enough and pays nice odds.
Sorana Cirstea 6.50
Games Won
120 WIN
@2.10
Win
132
The gulf in both class and form of these two players is not large. This handicap would have one thinking otherwise. Some nice value here. Cirstea has a solid all-round game, which gives her a decent chance of a competitive performance.
03:00 NY Liberty @ LA Sparks
LA Sparks
Money Line
150 WIN
@2.60
Lose
-150
The Sparks have won 10 out of their last 13 games, including 5 out of their last 6 home games. New York has lost 5 out of their 8 games. Price a tad high here.
00:30 DAL Wings @ IND Fever
DAL Wings
Money Line
130 WIN
@4.25
Win
422
Team news remains pretty ordinary for the Fever. Dallas have a solid offense that will test and trouble the Fever defense, which is nothing special. Price is a tad high here.
00:00 Magda Linette vs Jessica Pegula
Magda Linette
Win Match
60 WIN
@5.50
Win
270
This price is too high. It should be no bigger than 5.00 here based on my implied probability. Pegula is too inconsistent to be this short here.
Subtotal424
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
