surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
1
Estimated Prizes
this month
£5
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
16 September 2025
03:10 PHI Phillies @ LA Dodgers
PHI Phillies
Money Line
190 WIN
@2.15
Win
218
I prefer the Phillies' preparation for this game. They did not play yesterday, while the Dodgers played in a taxing game and have some travel to get back to LA. Favorable enough starting pitcher matchup here for the visitors.
03:00 LA Chargers @ LV Raiders
LA Chargers - Tie
Double Result
100 WIN
@36.00
Lose
-100
The Raiders have been a decent lay in recent seasons in the first half. They sport a poor record. The Chargers are the superior team in most areas and should cash for the first half. However, the Raiders will be desperate at home and think they have enough class to come back in the 2nd half and force OT.
00:40 NY Yankees @ MIN Twins
MIN Twins
Money Line
110 WIN
@2.62
Win
178
The Yankees have 66 losses this season. 35 of these have come on the road. The Twins have 65 wins. 36 of these have come at home. A home series against the prestigious Yankees is surely something the Twins will be up for.
00:00 TB Buccaneers @ HOU Texans
HOU Texans - Tie
Double Result
90 WIN
@34.00
Lose
-90
The Texans have a decent first-half record at home in recent seasons. At home with most of their key players in, they should get the first-half result. Then there is enough class in this Tampa team to come back in the second half and force OT.
Subtotal206
14 September 2025
21:25 PHI Eagles @ KC Chiefs
KC Chiefs - Tie
Double Result
70 WIN
@36.00
Lose
-70
The champs are under the pump from the fans and media after a poor preseason and game in week one. I expect them to be fired up at home, come out strong, and win the first half. There is enough quality in this Eagles lineup to come back in the 2nd half and force OT.
21:05 CAR Panthers @ ARI Cardinals
CAR Panthers
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.65
Lose
-60
I like the improvements the Panthers have shown this season, so far in the preseason and week one. There are not many games on their schedule that are a realistic win. This is one of them against a pretty flawed Arizona team. Price too high here.
ARI Cardinals - CAR Panthers
Double Result
50 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-50
Arizona has a decent first-half record at home in recent seasons. Carolina, on the road in recent seasons, has barely won a first half. However, there is enough class in their group this season to overturn the first-half deficit here.
21:05 LA Dodgers @ SF Giants
SF Giants
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.15
Lose
-50
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.10 here, so getting some minor value odds. Favourable enough starting pitcher matchup here for the home side.
18:40 TEX Rangers @ NY Mets
TEX Rangers
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.45
Lose
-50
Good deal of early sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. Favorable enough starting pitcher matchup here for the visitors. Price a tad high here.
14:00 Luke Littler vs Ross Smith
Ross Smith
Win Match 2-way
60 WIN
@4.20
Lose
-60
While Smith has not been at his best for large parts of this event, he has found ways to win. He has been steadily climbing the rankings the last few years and has no glaring weaknesses. Price too big here.
12:00 Josh Rock vs Mike De Decker
Mike De Decker
Win Match 2-way
126 WIN
@3.90
Lose
-126
Decent price here. It should be no bigger than 3.65, so getting value odds. De Decker is in decent enough form with both his scoring and double hitting, particularly his double hitting. Rock lacks consistency compared to the top few players in the world.
Subtotal-466
13 September 2025
17:30 Hull FC v Warrington
Hull FC
To Win
50 WIN
@1.44
Win
22
This is one of the worst Warrington teams in the last 20 years. Defensively, they have serious issues that will not be resolved this season or any time soon. Price a tad high here.
17:30 Wakefield v Hull KR
Wakefield
To Win
140 WIN
@3.40
Win
336
65% of Wakefield's decent performances this season and last season have been in their home games. They bring solid form into this game, and the team they have named is decent enough.
12:45 Jonny Tata vs Ross Smith
Jonny Tata
Win Match 2-way
60 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-60
Tata is one of the brightest prospects out of New Zealand or Australia. If he plays to his usual level, he is a better chance than this 4.33 price suggests.
Jonny Tata 2.50
Handicap 2-way
140 WIN
@2.00
Win
140
Tata is a Kiwi player on the rise. He doesn't often put in a poor performance. If he plays to his usual level against a player like Ross Smith, he should be competitive here.
11:45 Chris Dobey vs Luke Woodhouse
Luke Woodhouse
Win Match 2-way
80 WIN
@2.40
Lose
-80
Dobey has erratic recent form, which is seldom a positive sign. Woodhouse is mentally strong and has plenty of self-belief, as well as a game that arrives in solid shape. Price is a tad high here.
08:05 New Zealand v South Africa
South Africa
To Win
220 WIN
@2.60
Win
352
Team news is more favourable for the visitors here. They have an exciting and dangerous backline, which will enjoy and thrive in the dry conditions they get this week, which they did not get last week. This price is too high at 2.60.
South Africa 4.50
Handicap
380 WIN
@1.91
Win
346
Team news is not great for the home side. South Africa came to New Zealand wanting a split at the minimum, so they will be throwing everything at this game to achieve their goal. New Zealand's record in Wellington in recent times is poor.
05:00 Australia v Argentina
Australia
To Win
140 WIN
@1.57
Lose
-140
The Aussies at home in recent seasons have beaten New Zealand, South Africa, the British and Irish Lions, and France, all the top teams in the world. 75% of their best performances have been at home in recent seasons. Price a tad high here.
Subtotal916
12 September 2025
20:00 Leigh v St Helens
St Helens
To Win
80 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-80
This is a well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here at value odds, as this price should be no bigger than 2.10 here.
20:00 Luke Humphries vs James Wade
James Wade
Win Match 2-way
70 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-70
Wade has ramped up the level of his play the past few months, both with his scoring and double hitting, which has given him plenty of self-belief. He tends to raise his level of play against the world's elite.
20:00 Wigan v Castleford
Castleford
To Win
50 WIN
@17.00
Lose
-50
Worth a small go here at this price. Castleford has a solid attacking game; their attack is their strength. Wigan defensively have had their issues this season, especially in the past couple of months.
10:50 Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bulldogs
Canterbury Bulldogs
To Win
130 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-130
The Bulldogs are a sound outfit, both attacking-wise and defensively. Nicely built team for playoff football. Team news is not great for the home side here. Price too big.
Canterbury Bulldogs 6.50
Handicap (2-way)
200 WIN
@1.82
Lose
-200
The Storm have shown me enough flaws in recent weeks to be opposed here at low odds. The Bulldogs are a nicely balanced team both in attack and defensively. Line and odds are a tad generous here.
01:15 WAS Commanders @ GB Packers
WAS Commanders
Money Line
130 WIN
@2.60
Lose
-130
I expect Washington to rank well this season in offense stat categories. This spells trouble for the Packers today as their defense is ordinary. Price too high here at 2.60.
WAS Commanders - Tie
Double Result
80 WIN
@41.00
Lose
-80
The Packers' first-half record in recent seasons is ordinary. Washington has the offense to hurt them. There is enough quality in this Packers team to come back in the 2nd half and force OT.
01:00 NY Liberty @ CHI Sky
CHI Sky
Money Line
110 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-110
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 6-1 here, getting much better than that. Chicago has the offense to hurt New York. The hosts have scored 79 points or more in 55% of their last 9 games. A repeat of that today and they will be a solid chance.
01:00 PHX Mercury @ DAL Wings
DAL Wings
Money Line
190 WIN
@3.00
Win
380
Like most teams, the Mercury are more vulnerable on the road. And this game has more meaning for Dallas. It's the last game of their season. They will be wanting to end in style in front of friends, family, and fans.
00:15 NY Mets @ PHI Phillies
NY Mets
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
I like the starting pitcher matchup here for the Mets. It is reasonably favorable. This selection is well supported with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here.
Subtotal-520
11 September 2025
20:00 Leeds v Catalan Dragons
Catalan Dragons
To Win
70 WIN
@15.00
Win
980
Leeds have shown me enough flaws in recent seasons to be opposed at very low odds here. Catalans have the attacking game to hurt them. Price too big here.
00:00 ATL Dream @ CON Sun
CON Sun
Money Line
67 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-67
At least 65% of the Suns' decent performances this season and last season have occurred in their home games. They have a solid enough roster for this game.
Subtotal913
10 September 2025
23:45 NY Mets @ PHI Phillies
NY Mets
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-50
I like the starting pitcher matchup here for the visitors. It is favorable. Plus, I don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.30 here. Small stakes on this one though, as low confidence on this one.
03:10 COL Rockies @ LA Dodgers
COL Rockies
Money Line
53 WIN
@3.70
Lose
-53
The Dodgers are in some of their worst form right now, having lost 6 out of their last 9 games. Motivation has been lacking, and this series against the lowly Rockies will be a tough one for them to be up for.
03:00 CHI Sky @ LV Aces
CHI Sky
Money Line
70 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-70
Chicago has scored 77 points or more in 6 out of their last 10 games, which is solid. They have enough high-quality players available for this game to have a puncher's chance here.
00:05 DET Tigers @ NY Yankees
DET Tigers
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.40
Win
70
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection today. It is well supported. This price is too high here at 2.40, should be no bigger than 2.30 here.
00:00 WAS Mystics @ NY Liberty
WAS Mystics
Money Line
67 WIN
@9.50
Lose
-67
Washington has a solid offense. They have scored 81 points or more in 50% of their last 13 games played. New York is nothing special defensively. Price a tad high here.
Subtotal-170
09 September 2025
23:45 NY Mets @ PHI Phillies
PHI Phillies
Money Line
61 WIN
@1.75
Win
46
The hosts get a reasonably favorable pitching matchup here. The Phillies are 46-23 at home this season. The Mets have been poor away with a 31-41 record. Price a tad high here.
03:10 COL Rockies @ LA Dodgers
COL Rockies
Money Line
70 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-70
The Dodgers have lost 7 out of their last 9 games and are in some of their worst form of the season. This will be a tough series in terms of their motivation levels playing the lowly Rockies. Price too high here at 3.75.
COL Rockies 1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@2.35
Lose
-50
The Dodgers have looked down on motivation and have lost 7 out of their last 9 games. This series will be a tough one for them to suddenly turn their lack of motivation around, as most people expect them to cruise past the lowly Rockies. Price too high here.
01:15 MIN Vikings @ CHI Bears
CHI Bears - Tie
Double Result
70 WIN
@36.00
Lose
-70
The Bears at home will enjoy and thrive off the underdog tag. There is a good deal of sharp money around for them to win the first half. There is enough quality in this Vikings lineup to come back in the 2nd half and force OT.
00:30 CON Sun @ ATL Dream
CON Sun
Money Line
130 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-130
Don't really agree with this price. The Sun have their key players in for this game. When this has been the case this season, this is when most of their decent performances have occurred.
Subtotal-274
08 September 2025
23:45 NY Mets @ PHI Phillies
PHI Phillies
Money Line
50 WIN
@2.15
Win
57
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.10, so some minor value at this price. The Mets have a poor road record this season. The Phillies at home is a tough assignment.
PHI Phillies 1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@1.67
Win
34
I like the amount of sharp money around for the Phillies for this game. The Mets are just 31-40 on the road this season, which is one of the worst road records for any team that has a win rate at .500 or above.
02:00 CHI Sky @ LV Aces
CHI Sky
Money Line
61 WIN
@12.00
Lose
-61
Generous price here. Personally, I think it should be no bigger than 9-1 here. Vegas has shown me enough flaws this season, particularly early in the season, to oppose them at low odds here against a solid Chicago team, especially on offense.
01:20 BAL Ravens @ BUF Bills
BUF Bills - Tie
Double Result
50 WIN
@36.00
Lose
-50
Buffalo has a great first-half home record in recent seasons. There is enough class in this Ravens outfit to come back in the second half and force OT.
Subtotal-20
07 September 2025
21:25 HOU Texans @ LA Rams
HOU Texans
Money Line
70 WIN
@2.45
Lose
-70
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.35 here, so getting value odds. Plus, I like the fact this selection is well supported with the sharp money.
21:05 TEN Titans @ DEN Broncos
TEN Titans
Money Line
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Worth a go at this price. The Titans look solid or better on offense this season. Denver has a suffocating defense. It's going to be tough for any team with a worse than solid offense to beat them at home this season. Not a problem for the Titans.
20:05 Clermont v Toulouse
Toulouse
To Win
60 WIN
@1.50
Win
30
Clermont at home is a very tough assignment, which Toulouse will likely fail. I like the hosts to win the forward battle, which will set the foundation for the win.
18:00 CAR Panthers @ JAX Jaguars
CAR Panthers
Money Line
60 WIN
@2.65
Lose
-60
The Panthers look to have made some improvements this season, especially on offense. The visitors don't have a lot of games on their schedule that are a realistic win. However, this is one of them against a pretty flawed Jacksonville team.
CAR Panthers 3.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
Carolina doesn't have a lot of games on their schedule that are a realistic win. However, this is very much one of them against a pretty flawed Jacksonville team. Line and price are a tad high here.
18:00 LV Raiders @ NE Patriots
LV Raiders
Money Line
65 WIN
@2.25
Win
81
The Patriots lack high-quality players, especially in key positions. Some would argue so do the Raiders, but I feel they are more solid in key positions here. Price too high at 2.25.
18:00 NY Giants @ WAS Commanders
NY Giants
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.25
Lose
-60
The Giants have a solid record in recent seasons when they are a big underdog, especially when it comes to covering but also on winning the game straight up. The home side's strength is their offense. I feel this Giants defense is well equipped to deal with this.
14:00 Luke Littler vs Gian van Veen
Gian van Veen
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
@3.50
Win
125
Gian is in some of the best form of his career right now and has a habit of raising his level of play against the world's elite. Line and price are too generous here.
12:00 Luke Humphries vs Martin Schindler
Martin Schindler
Win Match 2-way
102 WIN
@2.62
Lose
-102
Luke has shown me enough flaws the past couple of months to be opposed at low odds here. Personally, I think this price should be no bigger than 2.55, so getting value odds here.
07:05 Parramatta Eels v Newcastle Knights
Parramatta Eels
To Win
50 WIN
@1.24
Win
12
Newcastle are in the top 3 worst teams in the NRL in attacking stat categories. They lack cohesion with their attack. The Eels at home with most of their key players in should be too strong here.
05:00 Dolphins v Canberra Raiders
Dolphins
To Win
60 WIN
@1.25
Win
15
Not a strong team named by the Raiders as they are looking ahead to the playoffs. 65% of the Dolphins' decent performances this season and in recent seasons have occurred in their home games.
01:30 MIN Lynx @ GS Valkyries
MIN Lynx
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
The Lynx are a nicely balanced team. Both on offense and on defense, they rank highly in most stat categories. Golden State have their issues, particularly defensively, which the Lynx will punish.
Subtotal-109
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
