surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
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Estimated Prizes
this month
£0
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
02 July 2025
11:00 Derbyshire vs Lancashire
Lancashire
Draw No Bet
53 WIN
@1.73
Win
39
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection at the various sites I use for that. This price is solid at 1.73. It should be no bigger than 1.70 here.
11:00 Glamorgan vs Gloucestershire
Gloucestershire
Draw No Bet
77 WIN
@2.00
Push
0
Generous price here, and I don't really agree with it. The visitors have the superior bowling attack, with batting pretty even. No opinion on the fielding.
11:00 Hampshire vs Worcestershire
Worcestershire
Draw No Bet
86 WIN
@2.50
Push
0
Based on the likely player lists of both teams and the respective recent 4-day form of these two teams, I have this price no bigger than 2.35 here.
11:00 Leicestershire vs Middlesex
Leicestershire
Draw No Bet
53 WIN
@1.73
Lose
-53
Middlesex have patchy recent form. This could spell trouble for them at a tough venue like Leicestershire. The hosts have the stronger batting lineup as well.
11:00 Queensland Reds v British & Irish Lions
Queensland Reds
To Win
60 WIN
@19.00
Lose
-60
There are enough quality players in this Reds team to be in the fight at home with a big crowd behind them. Do I expect them to win? No. But this 18-1 price should be no bigger than 12-1. So, getting some nice value.
Queensland Reds 31.50
Handicap
130 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-130
Normally, when an Aussie Super Rugby team is without 5 key players, as the Reds are for this game, I would not go near them. However, the replacement players are solid here, and the rest of the team is decent enough. Line a tad high.
11:00 Surrey vs Durham
Surrey
Draw No Bet
62 WIN
@1.44
Push
0
There is a reasonably big gulf in class between these two teams, and it should show in the end result. At 1.44, though, this price is about right, so small stakes.
11:00 Yorkshire vs Essex
Essex
Draw No Bet
60 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-60
Bookies have the wrong favorite here, in my opinion. Essex are the better-balanced four-day team and have the stronger team list for this game.
03:10 CHI White Sox @ LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers
Money Line
54 WIN
@1.29
Win
16
The Dodgers have 53 wins this season. 30 of these have been at home. The White Sox have a very ordinary road record of 9 wins and 32 losses this season. Favourable starting pitcher matchup here for the hosts as well.
Subtotal-248
29 June 2025
19:10 LA Dodgers @ KC Royals
LA Dodgers
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
Bookies have the wrong favorite here, in my opinion. I will take on a pretty flawed Royals team who is destined for another season of mediocrity.
LA Dodgers -1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@2.50
Win
75
The Dodgers, in the last two seasons, have one of the best records in the entire league. When they win, they win by big margins. Price is a tad high here.
18:35 NY Mets @ PIT Pirates
NY Mets
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-50
Back-to-back poor performances from the Mets. This is very rare for them. I get the sense they will come out firing today. Price is a tad high here.
NY Mets -1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@2.05
Lose
-50
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than evens here, so getting some minor value at 2.05. The starting pitcher matchup is favorable for the visitors here.
18:35 The Athletics @ NY Yankees
NY Yankees
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
Fresh off one of their most embarrassing performances this season, I expect a strong response from the Yankees. That's what quality teams often do.
NY Yankees -1.50
Run Line
50 WIN
@2.05
Win
52
The Yankees are fresh off a truly embarrassing performance. Expect a strong response here. This price should be no bigger than evens here.
07:05 Gold Coast Titans v North Queensland Cowboys
North Queensland Cowboys
To Win
80 WIN
@1.68
Win
54
Gold Coast rank poorly in several defense stats this season. This spells trouble for them versus a decent Cowboys attack with most of their key players back.
05:00 Melbourne Storm v Cronulla Sharks
Cronulla Sharks
To Win
50 WIN
@3.25
Lose
-50
The Sharks have too many quality players to be down for long. They will be fired up for this game for two main reasons. 1) They let victory slip last week after being in control. 2) Playing the title favorites, they will want to make a statement.
Subtotal104
28 June 2025
21:10 LA Dodgers @ KC Royals
KC Royals
Money Line
100 WIN
@2.40
Win
140
Of the Dodgers' 31 losses this season, 17 of those have been on the road. I will take the hungry and desperate home team here, fighting hard for every win for a playoff spot.
21:05 NY Mets @ PIT Pirates
PIT Pirates
Money Line
140 WIN
@2.25
Win
175
The Pirates' preparation for this game has been close to ideal. Plus, they get a reasonably favorable starting pitcher matchup here at home.
20:00 Castleford v Wigan
Castleford
To Win
53 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-53
Wigan have shown more chinks in their armour away from home in recent seasons. Castleford at home is a tough challenge. 7.50 is a nice price; it should be no bigger than 6-1 here.
18:05 The Athletics @ NY Yankees
The Athletics
Money Line
197 WIN
@3.20
Win
433
The Athletics were a no-show in their game yesterday. Look for a strong response from a capable enough team. 3.20 is an attractive enough price to have a go here.
17:30 Catalan Dragons v Huddersfield
Huddersfield
To Win
90 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-90
The Dragons have been a major disappointment this season. Team morale and confidence in their camp will be very low. Price a tad high for the visitors here.
17:30 Warrington v Hull FC
Hull FC
To Win
60 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-60
Warrington's season has been in a freefall for some time now. Defensively, they have been struggling. Hull present a decent attack which will trouble the home side.
16:10 South Africa v Barbarians
South Africa
To Win
102 WIN
@1.12
Win
12
I have this price no bigger than 1.10 here, so some minor value at 1.12. South Africa are very likely to win the forward battle here, which will set the foundation for the win.
11:00 Western Force v British & Irish Lions
Western Force
To Win
60 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-60
I have this price at no bigger than 10-1 here. The Force are a proven home team, winning 70% of their home games in recent seasons in Super Rugby. While the Lions are a step up from Super Rugby, I feel the home side are still a solid chance here.
Western Force 23.50
Handicap
120 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-120
The Force have been a decent home team both this season and last season in Super Rugby, winning around 70% of their home games. While not all of their Australian international players are available for this game, some of them are. A competitive performance is likely.
10:50 Dolphins v South Sydney Rabbitohs
South Sydney Rabbitohs
To Win
60 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-60
While one man doesn't make a team, it certainly helps. With Latrell Mitchell back for this game, Souths are every chance. Souths have a decent attack. This poses problems for an average Dolphins defense.
08:30 St George/Illawarra Dragons v Parramatta Eels
St George/Illawarra Dragons
To Win
60 WIN
@1.65
Win
39
The Eels are fool's gold this season. By this, what I mean is they are only good for an occasional decent performance. The Dragons at home is a tough assignment, which they will probably fail.
06:00 Brisbane Broncos v New Zealand Warriors
Brisbane Broncos
To Win
80 WIN
@1.50
Win
40
With most of their key players in and playing at home, these are the sort of games Brisbane must bank. Against a pretty flawed Warriors team, they should get the result here.
03:00 CON Sun @ SEA Storm
CON Sun
Money Line
60 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-60
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 11-1 here. The Sun offer enough on offense to have a puncher's chance in this game.
01:10 LA Dodgers @ KC Royals
KC Royals
Money Line
90 WIN
@2.45
Lose
-90
This is another selection that is well supported with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here. The Dodgers have 31 losses this season. 17 of these have been on the road.
00:05 The Athletics @ NY Yankees
The Athletics
Money Line
120 WIN
@3.20
Lose
-120
The starting pitcher matchup here for the Athletics is reasonably favorable, and the Yankees do not have a favorable record in games where they are a heavy favorite in recent seasons.
Subtotal126
27 June 2025
23:40 NY Mets @ PIT Pirates
PIT Pirates
Money Line
86 WIN
@2.30
Win
112
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. This price should be no bigger than 2.25 here, in my opinion.
11:00 Newcastle Knights v Canberra Raiders
Newcastle Knights
To Win
57 WIN
@2.90
Lose
-57
The Raiders are looking pretty secure for a playoff spot. Not so for Newcastle. They must bank a number of their remaining games, especially their home games like this one. Like most teams, the Raiders are more vulnerable on the road.
09:00 Manly Sea Eagles v Wests Tigers
Manly Sea Eagles
To Win
53 WIN
@1.44
Win
23
Manly will be like wounded bulls for this game, as they are fresh off an embarrassing performance and back at home where they have a decent record. Price about right here, so small stakes.
03:00 WAS Mystics @ LV Aces
LV Aces
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.25
Lose
-50
Team news is poor for Washington with one of their most important players a late scratching. Vegas have been much improved of late with their key players back and should have too many weapons for Washington here.
00:10 ATL Braves @ NY Mets
ATL Braves
Money Line
70 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-70
The starting pitcher matchup here for the Braves is quite favorable. The Braves are in their best form of the season, winners of 10 out of their last 15 games.
00:00 LA Sparks @ IND Fever
LA Sparks
Money Line
90 WIN
@3.00
Win
180
As impressive as the Fever have been, they do have weaknesses. Defensively, they are nothing special. The Sparks can exploit this. And the Fever depend on two key players, which is always dangerous with foul troubles and injury possibilities.
Subtotal138
26 June 2025
20:10 LA Dodgers @ COL Rockies
COL Rockies
Money Line
57 WIN
@3.40
Lose
-57
Like most teams, the Dodgers are more vulnerable on the road. And the majority of their ordinary performances in recent seasons have been on the road. Price a tad high here.
10:50 Penrith Panthers v Canterbury Bulldogs
Penrith Panthers
To Win
60 WIN
@2.10
Win
66
I like the team named by the hosts here. They will be desperate. Every win is crucial if they want to make the top 8. With the players they have for this game, a win at home is realistic.
03:00 CON Sun @ LV Aces
CON Sun
Money Line
53 WIN
@13.50
Lose
-53
Worth a go at this price. I have it no bigger than 10-1 here. Fresh off a truly embarrassing performance, the Sun should give a strong response here against a Vegas team who are nothing special.
CON Sun 19.00
Pointspread
88 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-88
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection, which I will follow here at what is a generous line. The Sun were embarrassed in their last outing. Look for a strong response here.
03:00 NY Liberty @ GS Valkyries
NY Liberty
Money Line
70 WIN
@1.20
Win
14
New York are a very efficient team both on offense and on defense. The Golden State team are pretty flawed, especially defensively, and this should be telling in the end result today.
Subtotal-118
25 June 2025
11:00 Essex vs Hampshire
Essex
Draw No Bet
78 WIN
@2.00
Push
0
dont really agree with this price given the likely player lists these are two evenly matched teams. And with this being a home game for essex it gives them the edge.
11:00 Gloucestershire vs Derbyshire
Derbyshire
Draw No Bet
110 WIN
@1.91
Push
0
i like the amount of sharp money around for this selection at the sites i use for that. i will follow here at what is a solid enough price at 1.91.
11:00 Lancashire vs Kent
Lancashire
Draw No Bet
60 WIN
@1.73
Push
0
i have more faith in lancashire at home that kent on the road at a tough home venue. personally i think this price should be no bigger than 1.70 here.
11:00 Leicestershire vs Glamorgan
Glamorgan
Draw No Bet
50 WIN
@2.20
Push
0
just a small one here as low confidence on this one. given the likely player lists for both teams this is a reasonably even matchup. 2.20 odds in a even matchup? yes please.
11:00 Northants vs Middlesex
Middlesex
Draw No Bet
170 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-170
i think this price is a little disrespctful to middlesex. they have the superior recent form in this county championship and the stronger player list.
11:00 Worcestershire vs Surrey
Worcestershire
Draw No Bet
82 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-82
dont really agree with this price it should be no bigger than 2.65 here. proud and capable enough home team versus a surrey side who are nothing special.
Subtotal-252
24 June 2025
15:30 France Women vs Lithuania Women
Lithuania Women
Money Line
50 WIN
@16.00
Lose
-50
I have this price no bigger than 11-1 here, which is where most bookies have it. The visitors have a solid offense. They can test and trouble a French defense that is nothing special.
00:10 ATL Braves @ NY Mets
ATL Braves
Money Line
130 WIN
@1.71
Win
92
Well-supported selection with the sharp money, which I like and will follow here. Favorable starting pitcher matchup here for the Braves. Price a tad high.
00:10 NY Yankees @ CIN Reds
CIN Reds
Money Line
60 WIN
@2.30
Win
78
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.20 here, which is where most bookies have it. So getting value odds makes sense to take 2.30 odds in a reasonably even matchup.
Subtotal120
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
