surfsup
20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.
3
Estimated Prizes
this month
£40
Estimated Prize money
this month
surfsup's Tips History
09 January 2026
08:35 Brisbane Roar v Auckland FC
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
53 WIN
@2.05
Win
56
Auckland are a pretty sound defensive side and tough to break down. The sharp money indicates that both teams may not score here. The price is a tad high.
Auckland FC & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@4.75
Lose
-50
Auckland are the likely winners of this game as they are the more balanced team and are fresh off an underwhelming performance. Being the better side they should respond strongly to this.
03:25 Wellington vs Otago T20
Wellington
Win Match
70 WIN
@1.67
Lose
-70
Wellington lost their last home game in heartbreaking fashion. They take great pride in banking their home games. Look for a strong response here against a pretty flawed Otago team.
02:10 DAL Mavericks @ UTA Jazz
UTA Jazz
Money Line
63 WIN
@2.70
Win
107
Dallas has one of the worst road records in the entire league, at 4-12. In recent seasons their road record has been pretty ordinary as well. The Jazz at home should put in a strong performance here.
01:10 MIA Heat @ CHI Bulls
MIA Heat
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.40
Void
0
The Bulls have issues that are reasonably serious defensively. The Heat bring a pretty potent offense that can exploit this. The Bulls' prep for this game has been less than ideal.
00:10 IND Pacers @ CHA Hornets
IND Pacers
Money Line
77 WIN
@2.62
Win
125
I will take the pretty flawed Charlotte team here, who has not had a decent prep for this game. The Pacers have a solid offense that can trouble an ordinary Hornets defense.
Subtotal168
08 January 2026
23:40 Wellington W vs Otago W T20
Wellington W
Win Match
69 WIN
@1.42
Win
29
The hosts are fresh off a loss. Losses for the reigning champs have been rare this season and last season. I expect a strong response at home from a quality side.
20:00 Provence v Grenoble
Grenoble
To Win
53 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-53
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 4-1 here, so getting value odds. I think the visitors can be competitive in most areas, including the forward battle.
Grenoble 12.50
Handicap
67 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-67
There is not too much between these two teams. In a reasonably even matchup, it makes sense to take the +12.5 head start here. The forward battle looks quite even.
08:15 Melbourne Stars vs Sydney Sixers T20
Sydney Sixers
Win Match
70 WIN
@2.15
Win
80
I will take on a pretty flawed Stars team here, especially with their bowling. The Sixers have a pretty potent batting lineup to hurt the home side. This price is a tad high at 2.15.
03:10 HOU Rockets @ POR Trail Blazers
POR Trail Blazers
Money Line
130 WIN
@3.40
Win
312
The Rockets have 11 losses this season. A high number of these have been on the road??"9 to be exact. This is alarming for a team of their status. Portland at home, with a decent prep, are a solid chance here.
POR Trail Blazers 7.50
Pointspread
80 WIN
@1.91
Win
73
The Rockets' struggles on the road have been for all to see this season, with 9 of their 11 losses occurring in road games. Portland provides a tough test today.
03:10 MIL Bucks @ GS Warriors
GS Warriors
Money Line
70 WIN
@1.44
Win
31
In recent seasons the Warriors' home record speaks for itself. It is highly impressive, with around an 80% win rate. The hosts should have too much class for a pretty flawed road team in the Bucks.
01:10 Northern Districts vs Canterbury T20
Canterbury
Win Match
120 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-120
I will take on a pretty flawed ND team here who lack high-quality players, especially in their batting, which is crucial. Canterbury are in the winning habit right now and should be too strong here.
00:40 LA Clippers @ NY Knicks
NY Knicks
Money Line
110 WIN
@1.57
Win
63
I have more faith and trust in the Knicks at home than the Clippers away. The Knicks have been a beast at home this season with a 15-4 record. Vastly different from the Clippers' 4-13 road record.
00:40 NO Pelicans @ ATL Hawks
NO Pelicans
Money Line
70 WIN
@4.60
Lose
-70
Atlanta are 0-8 in their last eight home games when favored by nine points or more. The heavy favorite tag is clearly not something they enjoy. New Orleans has a solid offense that can hurt them.
NO Pelicans 10.50
Pointspread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
The Hawks have really struggled recently at home when they have been heavy favorites. It's clearly not something they enjoy. New Orleans has the offense to hurt them today.
00:10 DEN Nuggets @ BOS Celtics
BOS Celtics
Money Line
70 WIN
@1.30
Lose
-70
I will take on a Denver team here who lacks high-quality players right now. Boston at home has the offense to hurt them today. This price is a tad high at 1.30.
00:10 WAS Wizards @ PHI 76ers
WAS Wizards
Money Line
50 WIN
@8.50
Lose
-50
Too big of a price here. The Wizards have good form and a solid offense. This will test and trouble a Philly defense that is nothing special. This price should be no bigger than 6-1 here.
Subtotal108
07 January 2026
19:30 Man City v Brighton
Brighton
76 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-76
Too big of a price here. It should be no bigger than 5-1, which is where several bookies have it. The hosts are in recent shaky form, and Brighton has a solid attacking game that can hurt them.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
69 WIN
@1.60
Win
41
Both teams offer plenty attacking-wise, especially the hosts. The sharp money on this game indicates it will be either reasonably high-scoring or high-scoring.
Draw & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
90 WIN
@6.00
Win
450
The sharp money on this game indicates there will be goals and that it could be reasonably high-scoring. On form, this is a reasonably even matchup, which gives the draw a solid chance here.
08:15 Perth Scorchers vs Melbourne Renegades T20
Perth Scorchers
Win Match
72 WIN
@1.53
Lose
-72
Perth are the more balanced team, especially with their bowling and fielding. This superiority in these areas should see them get this result at home, where they are tough to beat.
04:10 DAL Mavericks @ SAC Kings
SAC Kings
Money Line
120 WIN
@2.80
Lose
-120
In recent seasons, the Kings save at least 65% of their big performances for their home games. The Mavs have flaws the Kings can exploit today. This price is a little high here.
SAC Kings 4.50
Pointspread
54 WIN
@1.95
Win
51
The Kings are fresh off a string of underwhelming performances. Pride is a beautiful thing. At home, I expect a strong response here against a pretty flawed road team in Dallas.
02:07 NSH Predators @ EDM Oilers
EDM Oilers
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.71
Win
35
The markets have overreacted to team news here, in my view. On the surface, team news is pretty ordinary for the hosts, but I beg to differ. The roster they are putting out today at home, where they are tough, deserves to be slightly shorter than 1.71.
01:10 LA Lakers @ NO Pelicans
NO Pelicans
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-60
The Lakers have shown me enough flaws on the road in recent seasons to be opposed at low odds here, with a solid home team in the Pelicans. At least 60% of the Pelicans' decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games.
01:10 MIA Heat @ MIN Timberwolves
MIN Timberwolves
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
I will take on a pretty flawed road team here in the heat. At least 65% of the heats decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games. Price is a tad high here.
00:10 ORL Magic @ WAS Wizards
WAS Wizards
Money Line
90 WIN
@3.60
Win
234
This price is a tad high here. For the Magic, at least 60% of their decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games. Like a lot of teams on the road, they are vulnerable.
00:07 VAN Canucks @ BUF Sabres
BUF Sabres
Money Line
69 WIN
@1.61
Win
42
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. I have more faith and trust in Buffalo at home than a pretty flawed Canucks team away.
Subtotal551
06 January 2026
08:15 Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Thunder T20
Adelaide Strikers
Win Match
80 WIN
@1.80
Win
64
I have more faith and trust in Adelaide at home here than a pretty flawed Thunder team away. The Thunder have struggled away this season and are not in great form right now. This price is a tad high here.
03:50 Auckland W vs Otago W T20
Auckland W
Win Match
220 WIN
@1.85
Win
187
Auckland are superior in most areas: batting, bowling, with fielding quite even. Being a home game for Auckland, their class should shine through and they should get the result here.
03:10 GS Warriors @ LA Clippers
LA Clippers
Money Line
90 WIN
@2.25
Win
112
The Warriors' body of work on the road in recent seasons does not make impressive reading. In the last four seasons they have barely a 50 percent win rate. The Clippers at home are a tough test here.
LA Clippers 3.50
Pointspread
51 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow at what is a generous line. The Warriors have shown me enough flaws on the road in recent seasons to be opposed here.
03:10 UTA Jazz @ POR Trail Blazers
UTA Jazz
Money Line
60 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-60
Portland's prep for this game has not been great, and they have plenty of defensive flaws that this solid Jazz offense can exploit. This price is too high here at 3.00.
UTA Jazz 6.00
Pointspread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
This line is too high by at least one full point, in my view. The Jazz have the offense to hurt a Blazers defense that is pretty ordinary, and that is being kind.
01:40 DEN Nuggets @ PHI 76ers
DEN Nuggets
Money Line
80 WIN
@7.50
Win
520
Denver is very short-handed for this game. However, I have enough faith and belief in the players they have for this game. It's still a solid enough outfit. Price is too high here.
01:10 CHA Hornets @ OKC Thunder
CHA Hornets
Money Line
50 WIN
@8.50
Win
375
Too big of a price here. The Thunder's prep for this game has not been ideal, and perhaps some complacency will be a factor. The Hornets have a solid offense to test and trouble the hosts.
01:10 PHX Suns @ HOU Rockets
HOU Rockets
Money Line
70 WIN
@1.36
Win
25
I prefer the Rockets prep for this game. The Suns played in a taxing game yesterday and had some travel. Houston did not play yesterday and has been based at home. The superior team should come through here.
Subtotal1219
05 January 2026
02:40 MEM Grizzlies @ LA Lakers
MEM Grizzlies
Money Line
64 WIN
@3.10
Lose
-64
Don't really agree with this price. Memphis are fighting hard for every win possible for a playoff spot. And now their roster resembles a playoff roster, which it didn't earlier. They can do some damage. I feel on offense they can trouble an average Lakers defense today.
Subtotal-64
04 January 2026
21:25 MIA Dolphins @ NE Patriots
MIA Dolphins
Money Line
70 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-70
Whatever happens in this game, the Patriots have much, much bigger games in the coming weeks. So perhaps they won't be as focused on this game as they should be. Miami has a capable enough offense to cause the hosts issues here.
MIA Dolphins 13.50
Point Spread
57 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-57
I question whether the Patriots' focus and hunger for this game will be high, given what is around the corner for them in the coming weeks. The line is a tad high here.
21:25 NY Jets @ BUF Bills
NY Jets
Money Line
77 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-77
Where Buffalo is weak is defensively. Given this, their opponents always have a starter's chance. I have to think the desire for the Jets will be high here. They are a strong conference rival team. It's the last game of their season.
NY Jets 10.00
Point Spread
51 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-51
The Bills have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed at low odds here today. Surely this is a game the Jets will be up for against a strong conference rival and their last game this season.
20:07 PIT Penguins @ CLB Blue Jackets
PIT Penguins
Money Line
58 WIN
@2.10
Win
64
I will take on a pretty flawed Blue Jackets team here. Pittsburgh bring a decent attacking game, which spells trouble for the hosts, who have issues defensively.
18:00 CLE Browns @ CIN Bengals
CLE Browns
Money Line
80 WIN
@4.20
Win
256
There is not much between these two teams. I give the Browns at least a 30% chance of winning here, so 4.20 odds are value odds in my view.
CLE Browns 9.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
This line has gotten too high now, in my opinion. With little between these two teams, it makes sense to take a +9.5 head start, which, in my view, is generous here.
18:00 GB Packers @ MIN Vikings
MIN Vikings
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.20
Win
10
The quarterback set to start for the Packers here is very inexperienced at NFL level and showed plenty of flaws in college. This game has more meaning for the Vikings. The Packers' care factor for this game is not high, with much bigger fish to fry in the coming weeks.
18:00 NO Saints @ ATL Falcons
ATL Falcons
Money Line
57 WIN
@1.57
Win
32
This game has more importance and meaning for the Falcons, and at home they should have too much class for a pretty flawed Saints team. Price a tad high here.
18:00 TEN Titans @ JAX Jaguars
TEN Titans
Money Line
53 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-53
The Titans have been fighting hard in their recent matches and have been reasonably impressive. No reason to think it will not continue here. When the desire to do well for yourself and your teammates is very much there, that is part of the battle won.
17:30 Man City v Chelsea
Man City
50 WIN
@1.57
Lose
-50
Price is about right here, so small stakes. Man City at home is in the toughest assignments in the EPL. One which a pretty flawed Chelsea team will probably fail.
15:00 Everton v Brentford
Brentford
53 WIN
@3.10
Win
111
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here at an attractive price. The hosts' preparation for this game has not been ideal. Price is a tad high here in my view.
15:00 Leicester Tigers v Saracens
Leicester Tigers
To Win
57 WIN
@2.20
Win
68
While team news is not great for the Tigers, I have enough faith in the players named to put in a decent showing at home. The forward battle is tight and can even be won by the hosts, which gives them a solid chance here.
12:30 Leeds v Man Utd
Leeds
60 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-60
Leeds at home with a decent prep and a solid recent form line should put in a strong performance here. For me this game is very even, so 2.75 is value odds.
10:15 Perth Scorchers vs Adelaide Strikers T20
Adelaide Strikers
Win Match
56 WIN
@2.45
Lose
-56
Perth's prep for this game has been less than ideal. Adelaide are a nicely balanced team, and the edge in the bowling is with the visitors. This price is a tad high at 2.45.
07:05 Melbourne Stars vs Melbourne Renegades T20
Melbourne Renegades
Win Match
51 WIN
@2.50
Win
76
Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.45 here. The Stars have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed at low odds here against what will be a hungry and fired-up Renegades team.
03:10 UTA Jazz @ GS Warriors
UTA Jazz
Money Line
53 WIN
@4.60
Lose
-53
Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. Team news is not great for the Warriors. The Warriors' weakness is their defense. Utah has a solid offense that can trouble them.
01:40 HOU Rockets @ DAL Mavericks
DAL Mavericks
Money Line
80 WIN
@3.80
Win
224
Houston has 10 losses this season. A very high number of these have been on the road: 8 to be exact. Dallas at home is a tough test. This price is too high here.
01:10 POR Trail Blazers @ SA Spurs
POR Trail Blazers
Money Line
65 WIN
@3.80
Win
182
The Blazers are in some of their best form for some time right now. They have won 3 out of their last 4 and 6 out of their last 10. They have the offense to hurt the Spurs today.
00:40 PHI 76ers @ NY Knicks
NY Knicks
Money Line
60 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-60
I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection. The Knicks have been a beast at home this season, winning 15 out of their 18 played. The price is too high here.
Subtotal483
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
