surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

5

Estimated Prizes
this month

£25

Estimated Prize money
this month

surfsup's Tips

8th November 2025
12:30 Tottenham v Man Utd

Tottenham

155 WIN

2.80

Back it

I have more faith in Spurs at home than United away at a tough venue. Spurs have most of their key players in and have had a solid preparation. Price a tad high here at 2.80.
12:40 Ireland v Japan

Japan

To Win

50 WIN

41.00

Back it

Worth a small go at this price. While Ireland will likely win the forward battle, Japan can be competitive in back play, which gives them an outside chance here.

Japan 37.50

Handicap

75 WIN

2.00

Back it

Japan are not a poor side, and fresh off last week's humiliation, I expect a strong response. In their backline, in particular, there is enough class to be competitive here.
13:15 Damon Heta vs Martin Lukeman

Martin Lukeman

Win Match 2-way

60 WIN

2.95

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.85 here, so getting value odds. With little between these two players on form, it makes sense to take the 2.95 price.

Martin Lukeman 1.50

Handicap 2-way

110 WIN

2.00

Back it

Heta has shown me enough flaws the last few months to be opposed at low odds here, against a capable enough player in Lukeman. I fancy Lukeman to deal with the clutch moments in this match better.
13:15 Josh Rock vs Wessel Nijman

Wessel Nijman

Win Match 2-way

53 WIN

2.10

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than evens here. This match is a 50-50 call in my opinion, so any odds evens or above is value here.

Wessel Nijman 1.50

Handicap 2-way

50 WIN

1.57

Back it

This is a tight matchup, so it makes sense to take the plus handicap here. Nijman has a serious game and is efficient in both his scoring and double hitting right now.
13:15 Stephen Bunting vs Alexis Toylo

Stephen Bunting

Win Match 2-way

70 WIN

1.22

Back it

I will take on a flawed player in Toylo. He should be outclassed by Bunting here. Bunting's scoring average and double hitting success rate are significantly better than Toylo. This price is about right though, so not getting carried away with stake size.
14:30 Ashes Test Series 2025

Australia (inc. Golden Point decider)

110 WIN

1.04

Back it

There is a gulf in class between these two teams, which should show in the end result. While England can be competitive, I feel it is a bridge too far for them to win games straight up. The attacking prowess of this Aussie team is too much for the hosts to handle.
14:30 England v Australia

England

To Win

80 WIN

5.00

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 4.80 here, so getting value odds. This game has more meaning for England. And at home, where they are strong, they are a decent chance here.

England 14.50

Handicap (2-way)

198 WIN

1.91

Back it

The Aussies have already achieved what they came to do. While for England, who are a proud and capable home team, it's one last chance to get something from this tour. So I am thinking the home side will want this one more.

Under 38.50

Total Points

50 WIN

1.91

Back it

Both teams are sound defensively, especially the visitors. Points are likely to be at a premium. This line is two points too high here, in my humble opinion.
15:10 Scotland v New Zealand

New Zealand

To Win

65 WIN

1.30

Back it

Tough to overcome such a poor historical record for Scotland here. This All Black group is well aware of it and will be hell-bent on not creating the wrong kind of history. I like the visitors to win the forward battle, which will set the foundation for the win.
17:40 England v Fiji

England

To Win

80 WIN

1.05

Back it

Fiji lack a consistent high enough level of play to get the win here. They can be decent with their level of play, but it's seldom for more than 30 minutes of an 80-minute match. Then you factor in other areas of weakness, and England should be the victor today.
20:10 France v South Africa

France

To Win

111 WIN

2.20

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.10 here. France at home is a very tough proposition, and I like the team named by the hosts.

France 2.50

Handicap

199 WIN

1.88

Back it

I have more faith in France at home. Not that impressed with the team named by the visitors. In my view, there are a few players short of their top team.
21:30 Auckland vs Central Districts One Day Match

Central Districts

Win Match

120 WIN

1.80

Back it

The visitors have the more complete team and the better-balanced team. Auckland's bowling attack is not strong, and that should be telling here. Price a tad high at 1.80.
21:30 Northern Districts vs Canterbury One Day Match

Canterbury

Win Match

68 WIN

1.62

Back it

Canterbury are the form team in the Ford Trophy with several big wins in a row. The hosts do not have a strong batting lineup, and that should prove costly here.

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