surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

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surfsup's Tips

20th November 2025
08:10 Sydney Sixers W vs Melbourne Stars W T20

Melbourne Stars W

Win Match

77 WIN

2.10

Back it

Based on form and the likely player lineups for both teams, I have this price no bigger than evens here, so getting value odds. The Stars have a decent batting lineup that can hurt a Sixers bowling attack that is nothing special.
21st November 2025
01:15 BUF Bills @ HOU Texans

HOU Texans

Money Line

60 WIN

3.35

Back it

The Bills have shown me enough flaws in recent seasons, especially on the road, to be opposed here at low odds. The Texans badly need this win, more so than the Bills, so the home side may want it more. Price a tad high here.

HOU Texans 6.00

Point Spread

50 WIN

1.91

Back it

Generous line here for a capable enough team who badly needs this win at home to keep their playoff hopes realistic. The Bills on the road are nothing special, as proven by their road record in recent seasons.

HOU Texans - BUF Bills

Double Result

71 WIN

4.70

Back it

By taking this selection as well as Houston to win the game, in effect, I am taking the Texans to be ahead at halftime or full-time. For me, this is very realistic. The Bills have shown me enough flaws, especially on the road in recent seasons, to be opposed here.

Cade Stover (HOU Texans)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

50 WIN

11.00

Back it

Worth a go at this price. I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection, which I will follow at what is a decent enough price. 10-1 should be no bigger than 9-1 here.

BUF Bills by 1 6

Winning Margin

50 WIN

3.60

Back it

This is easily the most common winning margin in NFL history. The hosts have enough class to be competitive here, but the superior team should get the win in a tight finish.
22nd November 2025
15:10 Wales v New Zealand

Wales

To Win

60 WIN

17.00

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 14-1 here, so getting value odds. Wales have a solid forward pack and enough class in their backs to be an outside chance at home here.

Wales 28.50

Handicap

117 WIN

1.91

Back it

While the All Blacks' second-tier team is not a big drop from the top team, it is still a drop. NZ is likely to name their second-tier team for this game. Wales at home provide solid opposition. A competitive performance is likely here.
17:30 Newcastle v Man City

Draw & Yes

Result and BTTS

50 WIN

4.50

Back it

Both teams offer plenty on attack, especially the visitors. It's hard to see both teams not scoring here. In what is a very tight matchup, the draw is a real possibility here.

Newcastle 0.50

Asian Hcap

130 WIN

2.05

Back it

Newcastle are much improved and at home. With reasonably favorable team news, a strong performance is likely here against a Man City team who is nothing special away from home.
23rd November 2025
16:10 England v Argentina

England

To Win

53 WIN

1.25

Back it

The Pumas often have trouble backing up an epic win with another decent performance the next week. And that's the scenario here. England at home should have too much class and firepower.
16:30 Arsenal v Tottenham

Tottenham

80 WIN

8.00

Back it

I like the amount of sharp money around for this selection. And the odds on Arsenal are too low here. I will gladly go the other way at very attractive odds.

Tottenham & Yes

Result and BTTS

50 WIN

13.00

Back it

Both teams are decent attacking-wise, especially the hosts. There is a good deal of sharp money around for Spurs for this game, which I like and will follow here.
24th November 2025
20:00 Man Utd v Everton

Everton

120 WIN

4.75

Back it

Everton are a nicely balanced team with no glaring weaknesses. I think they are a solid chance here against a pretty flawed Man United team. Surely this is a game Everton will really be up for.

Everton & Yes

Result and BTTS

53 WIN

7.50

Back it

Both teams have cohesive attacking games, and with fine weather in the long-range forecast for this game, it is likely both will score. I have seen enough weaknesses in the hosts to think Everton can get the result here.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

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