surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

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surfsup's Tips

11th December 2025
20:00 Soyaux Angouleme v Agen

Soyaux Angouleme

To Win

50 WIN

1.36

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 1.33, so getting some minor value at this price. The hosts should win the forward battle and have more class in their backs.
12th December 2025
15:30 Rob Cross vs Cor Dekker

Cor Dekker

Win Match 2-way

60 WIN

3.25

Back it

Cross has been inconsistent the past few months and, for the most part, is struggling to produce his best darts. Dekker has the game to test and trouble him here. Price is a tad high.

Cor Dekker 1.50

Handicap 2-way

200 WIN

1.80

Back it

It will be difficult for Cross to win this match convincingly. His form the past few months is shaky. Dekker is mentally strong, which is half the battle won. He also has a solid all-around game.
18:00 Valence Romans v Grenoble

Grenoble

To Win

70 WIN

3.75

Back it

Worth a go at this price. Valence are nothing special defensively. This is something the visitors can exploit, as they have a solid attacking game. Price too high here.

Grenoble 9.50

Handicap

130 WIN

1.80

Back it

I have this game as a tighter matchup than the bookies have. The forward battle looks quite tight, and Grenoble have enough class in their backs to be competitive here.
18:30 Aurillac v Mont de Marsan

Mont de Marsan

To Win

60 WIN

5.50

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 5.00 here, so getting value odds. While the hosts have the edge in back play, the forward battle should be quite even, giving the visitors a solid chance.

Mont de Marsan 11.50

Handicap

90 WIN

1.83

Back it

Where this line opened was far more accurate to where it should be. At this number, it is at least two points too high. The visitors should be competitive in the forward battle, which will dictate a competitive performance.
18:30 Brive v Carcassonne

Brive

To Win

300 WIN

1.01

Back it

Can only see this result here given the class gulf between these two teams and the fact that Brive are at home. The hosts should win the forward battle, which will set up the win.
18:30 Dax v Colomiers

Colomiers

To Win

60 WIN

2.25

Back it

Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. It's a tight matchup, however I look at it, so anything above 2.15 is value odds here.
18:30 Provence v Beziers

Provence

To Win

100 WIN

1.03

Back it

Given the gulf in class between these two teams and the likely lineups for both sides, this should be a winner. I have much more faith in Provence at home than Béziers away.
20:00 Leicester Tigers v Leinster

Leinster

To Win

60 WIN

1.36

Back it

I like the visitors to win the forward battle here. They have more class and cohesion in their back play. Other than playing at home, Leicester doesn't have much going for them here.
20:00 Vannes v Biarritz

Vannes

To Win

150 WIN

1.01

Back it

I have much more faith and trust in Vannes at home than Biarritz at a tough away venue. The home side should win the forward battle, which will set the foundation for the win.
13th December 2025
22:00 New Zealand vs West Indies

Draw

Win Match

73 WIN

10.50

Back it

It's this price. I don't really agree with it ??" it should be no bigger than 8-1 here. There is no rain at all in the five-day forecast. Once the Basin pitch settles down a day and a half into the Test, it is a decent batting pitch. And NZ don't bat as aggressively as the likes of England and Australia.

West Indies

Draw No Bet

170 WIN

6.50

Back it

More so than most international teams, the Windies are very much a confidence team. When they have their tails up, they can be tough to stop. After an epic draw in the last Test, their confidence is high right now. Price too big here.

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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

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