surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

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surfsup's Tips

1st January 2026
01:10 Canterbury W vs Central Districts W T20

Central Districts W

Win Match

65 WIN

2.00

Back it

The visitors have done the hard work in the off-season. They will be improved this season and should have too many weapons for Canterbury today. Canterbury rely on 2??"3 players, which is always dangerous, whereas Central Districts are the more balanced team.
01:10 POR Trail Blazers @ OKC Thunder

OKC Thunder

Money Line

110 WIN

1.09

Back it

I will take on a flawed Portland team here, who are ordinary defensively. This spells trouble against OKC, who have the most potent offense in the league and only one loss at home all season.
04:55 Canterbury vs Central Districts T20

Central Districts

Win Match

50 WIN

2.10

Back it

Quality teams often respond strongly when fresh off an ordinary performance. That's what I'm banking on here for Central Districts, who are blessed with 7??"8 quality players in their lineup. The price is a tad high here.
05:00 Melbourne Renegades vs Sydney Sixers T20

Melbourne Renegades

Win Match

53 WIN

2.20

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 2.15, so some minor value. At least 60% of the Renegades' decent performances in recent seasons have been in their home games. They badly need this win.
08:15 Hobart Hurricanes vs Perth Scorchers T20

Hobart Hurricanes

Win Match

52 WIN

1.91

Back it

I have more faith and trust in Hobart at home than Perth away. Perth have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed here against a quality Hobart team at home.
12:50 Ryan Searle vs Jonny Clayton

Jonny Clayton 1.50

Handicap 2-way

54 WIN

1.67

Back it

I will take the more experienced and superior player to prevail here. Clayton should handle the pressure and key moments better, and that could be the difference.
3rd January 2026
13:30 Perpignan v Toulouse

Perpignan

To Win

57 WIN

3.50

Back it

Too big of a price here for Perpignan at home with a likely strong enough team to be named. The forward battle here should be reasonably tight, which gives this tip a solid chance.

Perpignan 9.50

Handicap

73 WIN

1.80

Back it

Home advantage here is significant. I have more faith and trust in Perpignan at home putting in a strong performance than Toulouse away. The forward battle should be reasonably tight here.
15:35 Montauban v Clermont

Montauban

To Win

93 WIN

3.50

Back it

Don't agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 3.25 here, so this is very much getting value odds. At home, Montauban should win the forward battle, which will set the foundation for the win.

Montauban 8.50

Handicap

120 WIN

1.83

Back it

Home advantage is significant here. I will take on a pretty flawed away team in Clermont here. The hosts should win the forward battle, which will set up the win.
15:35 Montpellier v Bayonne

Bayonne

To Win

80 WIN

4.33

Back it

The forward battle looks tight here and can even be won by the visitors. Bayonne also has enough class in the backs to be a solid chance here. This price should be no bigger than 3-1.

Bayonne 11.50

Handicap

290 WIN

1.80

Back it

I have this game as a more even matchup than the bookies. Bayonne have the forward pack to compete well here against a Montpellier team that is nothing special. Line too high here.
17:30 Leinster v Connacht

Leinster

To Win

80 WIN

1.06

Back it

The forward battle here looks quite one-sided. Connacht away at such a tough venue can only see this result. Price about right though, so small stakes.
20:00 Bordeaux v Racing 92

Bordeaux

To Win

207 WIN

1.10

Back it

I will take on a pretty flawed Racing team who continue to struggle in their away games. Bordeaux at home, with the likely teams to be named, should have too much firepower here.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

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