surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

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surfsup's Tips

21st December 2025
19:20 Luke Littler vs David Davies

Luke Littler

Win Match 2-way

100 WIN

1.03

Back it

Big gulf in class between these two players and it should show in the end result. Littler is consistently more efficient with his scoring and double hitting.
19:20 Martin Schindler vs Keane Barry

Keane Barry

Win Match 2-way

74 WIN

3.50

Back it

Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here at what is a decent enough price. Martin has mixed results the past few months and is fighting demons in his darts game and has been for a while.
20:10 Gerwyn Price vs Wesley Plaisier

Wesley Plaisier

Win Match 2-way

50 WIN

6.00

Back it

Price has shown me enough flaws to be opposed at low odds here, particularly in the past two years. He is a shadow of his former self. Plaisier will provide a solid test here.
21:00 Luke Littler vs David Davies

David Davies 2.50

Handicap 2-way

180 WIN

3.50

Back it

While I expect Luke to win, Davies is not a complete mug. Winning a set is not that unrealistic. Generous line and price here. This price should be no bigger than 3.40 here in my opinion.

Over 3.50

Total Sets

53 WIN

4.00

Back it

The overall record between these two players stands at 1-1. Davies is a winner in life. With his life in a very good place, this makes him a dangerous opponent. A competitive performance can happen here.

David Davies

Win 1st Set

50 WIN

13.00

Back it

Davies has his life in a very good place right now, which can only help his darts. He has beaten Littler before and won a first set off Littler in their previous two meetings.

David Davies to win 3-2

Leg Betting

50 WIN

34.00

Back it

Davies is a winner in life, which translates to decent darts. He has beaten Littler before, too. he is not without a chance at very big odds here.

David Davies

Most 180s

50 WIN

15.00

Back it

Davies is mostly a 20s player with his scoring, whereas Littler mixes it up slightly more by going for 19s and 18s slightly more than Davies. Not without a hope at big odds here.
21:25 LV Raiders @ HOU Texans

LV Raiders

Money Line

120 WIN

9.00

Back it

Not without a hope at big odds. Sure, the Texans have a decent team defense; however, their offense is often lacking in cohesion and is often disjointed. The Raiders will provide a solid test here.

HOU Texans by 1 6

Winning Margin

53 WIN

5.50

Back it

For all the praise the Texans are getting for their defense, the fact remains that their offense lacks cohesion. For this reason, I think the Raiders can keep this game close. The price is a tad high here.
21:25 PIT Steelers @ DET Lions

DET Lions

Money Line

200 WIN

1.30

Back it

I have more faith and trust in a quality Lions at home than the Steelers away at a tough venue. The Steelers have won just 50% of their road games this season, and last season that number was similar.
21:50 Damon Heta vs Stefan Bellmont

Stefan Bellmont

Win Match 2-way

57 WIN

4.00

Back it

Heta has not shown me enough high-level play in the past 12 months to be this low in odds against a solid opponent like Bellmont. The price is a tad high here.
22nd December 2025
22:00 New Zealand vs West Indies

New Zealand

Draw No Bet

79 WIN

1.10

Back it

The stuffing was knocked out of the Windies in the second Test. Their batting is struggling with NZ conditions and the NZ pace attack. In the last game of the tour they may already have one foot on the plane home.

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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

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