surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

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surfsup's Tips

2nd May 2025
08:05 Blues v Western Force

Western Force

To Win

50 WIN

6.50

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 5.50 here, getting much better than that. I expect the Force to compete well in the forward battle, which will set the foundation for a competitive performance.

Western Force 13.50

Handicap

80 WIN

1.91

Back it

The Blues are a shadow of last season's champion team and have shown me enough flaws this season to be opposed at low odds here versus a capable enough Force team.
09:00 Cronulla Sharks v Parramatta Eels

Cronulla Sharks

To Win

84 WIN

1.47

Back it

The gulf in class between these two teams is large. And with the Sharks being at home with most of their key players in, they should have too much firepower here.
11:05 Sydney Roosters v Dolphins

Sydney Roosters

To Win

57 WIN

1.87

Back it

The loss last week by the Dolphins has to leave some scars. They led by 18 points at halftime and then proceeded to lose the 2nd half by 28 points to an average Raiders team. Price a tad high here.
3rd May 2025
03:05 Fijian Drua v Reds

Reds

To Win

50 WIN

1.62

Back it

I will take the superior team to prevail here. This game has much more meaning for the Reds as they hunt playoff seeding. The Fiji side will not feature in the playoffs.
06:00 South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights

South Sydney Rabbitohs

To Win

60 WIN

2.10

Back it

The Knights have scored 72 points in 7 games, which is an average of just over 10 points per game. This ranks the worst in the NRL, and they are a solid lay as a favorite here.
08:05 Hurricanes v Chiefs

Chiefs

To Win

50 WIN

1.62

Back it

The Chiefs are the number one team and the team to beat. They should continue their winning ways against a pretty flawed Hurricanes team who have been making too many basic errors.
08:30 New Zealand Warriors v North Queensland Cowboys

New Zealand Warriors

To Win

58 WIN

2.10

Back it

The Warriors have had the superior preparation for this game and have won 4 out of their last 5 games. At home, they have fashioned a decent record in recent seasons. Price a tad high here.
10:35 Brumbies v Waratahs

Waratahs

To Win

50 WIN

3.75

Back it

3.50 is an accurate price here, getting much better than that. The Brumbies' attack has been lacking cohesion. NSW can match them in that area. Price too big here.

Waratahs 9.50

Handicap

70 WIN

1.91

Back it

Both teams will be desperate for the win as they hunt playoff seeding. Both are very much alive. The Brumbies' attacking game has been lacking cohesion of late. NSW will really be up for this game.
4th May 2025
04:35 Highlanders v Moana Pasifika

Moana Pasifika

To Win

53 WIN

2.50

Back it

I will take on a pretty flawed Highlanders team here, who have lost 6 out of their last 7 games, with several heavy defeats. The visitors have won 3 out of their last 5 games and are playing the better rugby right now.
04:50 Gold Coast Titans v Canterbury Bulldogs

Gold Coast Titans

To Win

50 WIN

4.00

Back it

Too big of a price here. The Bulldogs have an ordinary away record in recent seasons. Gold Coast need this win more, and playing at home, a strong performance is likely.
09:25 Melbourne Storm v Canberra Raiders

Melbourne Storm

To Win

85 WIN

1.50

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 1.45 here, which is where several bookies have it. The Storm have played 7 and won 5. All 5 of those wins have been at home (undefeated at home). The Raiders are just 1 win and 2 losses on the road. This is as tough as it gets.
5th May 2025
11:00 Hampshire vs Durham

Hampshire

Draw No Bet

50 WIN

1.73

Back it

Just a small one here as low confidence, and this price is about right. Durham are not a great road team. Hampshire at home is a tough test, especially with their likely team lineup.
11:00 Lancashire vs Gloucestershire

Lancashire

Draw No Bet

50 WIN

1.53

Back it

I was hugely impressed with Lancashire in their last game. They were very clinical. Back at home, I like them to continue their high level of play.
11:00 Middlesex vs Kent

Middlesex

Draw No Bet

300 WIN

2.00

Back it

Bookies have the wrong favorite here, in my opinion. Middlesex are at home, where they are tough to beat, and have the superior team list and recent form.
11:00 Somerset vs Essex

Essex

Draw No Bet

60 WIN

1.80

Back it

I will take on a pretty flawed Somerset team here, who have poor recent form. Their batting lineup is struggling right now. Price a tad high here.

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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

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