surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

3

Estimated Prizes
this month

£20

Estimated Prize money
this month

surfsup's Tips

20th December 2025
12:30 Newcastle v Chelsea

Yes

Both Teams to Score

53 WIN

1.57

Back it

I'm happy enough with what both teams bring/offer attacking-wise. The slightly weaker of the two teams, attacking-wise, is the home team. Given all the benefits of playing at home, that will only help. Price is a tad high here.
15:00 Northampton Saints v Sale Sharks

Northampton Saints

To Win

90 WIN

1.30

Back it

I have more faith and trust in Saints at home here than Sale, a team who often struggle away, especially at tough venues, as Northampton is. The hosts should win the forward battle, which will set up the win.
15:00 Saracens v Exeter Chiefs

Saracens

To Win

53 WIN

1.28

Back it

This price is about right here, so small stakes. Saracens at home is in the top 3 toughest assignments in the Premiership. The edge in the forward battle is with the hosts here.
17:30 Harlequins v Bristol Bears

Bristol Bears

To Win

57 WIN

2.37

Back it

Well-supported selection with the sharp money and I tend to agree with it. Quins' weakness is their defense, while for the visitors their strength is their attack. Price a tad high here.

Bristol Bears 3.50

Handicap

73 WIN

1.91

Back it

Generous line here given the team news. Bristol have a potent and cohesive attacking game. This spells trouble for a Quins team whose defence is only average at best.
19:20 Luke Littler vs David Davies

Luke Littler

Win Match 2-way

100 WIN

1.03

Back it

Big gulf in class between these two players and it should show in the end result. Littler is consistently more efficient with his scoring and double hitting.
21st December 2025
15:00 Newcastle Red Bulls v Bath

Bath

To Win

50 WIN

1.08

Back it

I will take on a flawed Newcastle team here, who other than playing at home have very little going for them. Bath is a class above and will be satisfied with nothing less than a comfortable win here.
22nd December 2025
22:00 New Zealand vs West Indies

New Zealand

Draw No Bet

79 WIN

1.10

Back it

The stuffing was knocked out of the Windies in the second Test. Their batting is struggling with NZ conditions and the NZ pace attack. In the last game of the tour they may already have one foot on the plane home.

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