surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

3

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surfsup's Tips

22nd December 2025
21:10 Luke Humphries vs Paul Lim

Paul Lim

Win Match 2-way

57 WIN

26.00

Back it

Luke has shown me enough flaws the past 12 months to be opposed here at very low odds. If he is off his game, which does happen from time to time, anything is possible.

Luke Humphries to win 3-2

Leg Betting

53 WIN

21.00

Back it

This price should be no bigger than 18-1 here; I'm getting much better than that. If Luke is off his game, which has happened a few times in the past 12 months, then this has every chance.
22:00 New Zealand vs West Indies

New Zealand

Draw No Bet

79 WIN

1.10

Back it

The stuffing was knocked out of the Windies in the second Test. Their batting is struggling with NZ conditions and the NZ pace attack. In the last game of the tour they may already have one foot on the plane home.
23rd December 2025
01:15 SF 49ers @ IND Colts

SF 49ers

Money Line

137 WIN

1.40

Back it

I will take on a pretty flawed Colts team here, who are down on key players and not strong in key positions. The 49ers have won four in a row. The Colts have lost four in a row.

IND Colts - SF 49ers

Double Result

77 WIN

4.70

Back it

Despite the Colts being down key players right now, they are still at home and do have a decent first-half record this season and in recent seasons. In the second half, the class of the superior team should take over.

Brian Robinson Jr. (SF 49ers)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer

53 WIN

3.80

Back it

The Colts are not great at stopping the run (rushing), which will give Robinson, a 49ers running back, a decent chance for a touchdown. This price is a tad high at 3.80.

IND Colts Under 19.50

Team Points 2-Way (Home)

56 WIN

2.05

Back it

Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. The Colts have issues on offense at key positions, including quarterback.
08:15 Adelaide Strikers vs Melbourne Stars T20

Adelaide Strikers

Win Match

180 WIN

1.85

Back it

I have more faith and trust in Adelaide at home here than the Stars away. The Stars, in recent seasons, have struggled to produce their best cricket, for the most part, in their away games. Price a tad high here.

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