surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

3

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surfsup's Tips

12th December 2025
18:00 Valence Romans v Grenoble

Grenoble

To Win

70 WIN

3.75

Back it

Worth a go at this price. Valence are nothing special defensively. This is something the visitors can exploit, as they have a solid attacking game. Price too high here.

Grenoble 9.50

Handicap

130 WIN

1.80

Back it

I have this game as a tighter matchup than the bookies have. The forward battle looks quite tight, and Grenoble have enough class in their backs to be competitive here.
18:30 Aurillac v Mont de Marsan

Mont de Marsan

To Win

60 WIN

5.50

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 5.00 here, so getting value odds. While the hosts have the edge in back play, the forward battle should be quite even, giving the visitors a solid chance.

Mont de Marsan 11.50

Handicap

90 WIN

1.83

Back it

Where this line opened was far more accurate to where it should be. At this number, it is at least two points too high. The visitors should be competitive in the forward battle, which will dictate a competitive performance.
18:30 Brive v Carcassonne

Brive

To Win

300 WIN

1.01

Back it

Can only see this result here given the class gulf between these two teams and the fact that Brive are at home. The hosts should win the forward battle, which will set up the win.
18:30 Dax v Colomiers

Colomiers

To Win

60 WIN

2.25

Back it

Good deal of sharp money around for this selection, which I like and will follow here. It's a tight matchup, however I look at it, so anything above 2.15 is value odds here.
18:30 Provence v Beziers

Provence

To Win

100 WIN

1.03

Back it

Given the gulf in class between these two teams and the likely lineups for both sides, this should be a winner. I have much more faith in Provence at home than Béziers away.
20:00 Leicester Tigers v Leinster

Leinster

To Win

60 WIN

1.36

Back it

I like the visitors to win the forward battle here. They have more class and cohesion in their back play. Other than playing at home, Leicester doesn't have much going for them here.
20:00 Vannes v Biarritz

Vannes

To Win

150 WIN

1.01

Back it

I have much more faith and trust in Vannes at home than Biarritz at a tough away venue. The home side should win the forward battle, which will set the foundation for the win.
13th December 2025
08:00 South Africa W vs Ireland W 1st ODI

Ireland W

Win Match

62 WIN

11.00

Back it

Don't really agree with this price. It should be no bigger than 9-1 here, so that's getting value odds. I feel Ireland has the batting lineup to test and trouble the hosts, who are nothing special with their bowling.
08:15 Hobart Hurricanes W vs Perth Scorchers W T20

Hobart Hurricanes W

Win Match

195 WIN

1.75

Back it

I prefer Hobart's preparation for this game. It has been far superior. Hobart has the batting lineup to really hurt a Perth bowling attack that is nothing special. Price too high here at 1.75.
22:00 New Zealand vs West Indies

Draw

Win Match

73 WIN

10.50

Back it

It's this price. I don't really agree with it ??" it should be no bigger than 8-1 here. There is no rain at all in the five-day forecast. Once the Basin pitch settles down a day and a half into the Test, it is a decent batting pitch. And NZ don't bat as aggressively as the likes of England and Australia.

West Indies

Draw No Bet

170 WIN

6.50

Back it

More so than most international teams, the Windies are very much a confidence team. When they have their tails up, they can be tough to stop. After an epic draw in the last Test, their confidence is high right now. Price too big here.
16th December 2025
22:00 Niko Springer vs Joe Comito

Niko Springer

Win Match 2-way

50 WIN

1.14

Back it

Comito is the weakest player out of all the Australian players. In his most recent event, which was the ANZ Darts Premiership and was played over many weeks, he only won two matches out of about 12 or more played. Springer is a higher level than these opponents and should get the job done here.
17th December 2025
22:00 New Zealand vs West Indies

New Zealand

Draw No Bet

79 WIN

1.10

Back it

The stuffing was knocked out of the Windies in the second Test. Their batting is struggling with NZ conditions and the NZ pace attack. In the last game of the tour they may already have one foot on the plane home.

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