surfsup

20+ years betting sports has taught me a lot. Not least of which, only bet large if you think you have a significant edge. Getting odds that are better than the actual probability is key too.

2

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this month

surfsup's Tips

27th December 2025
15:05 Gloucester v Saracens

Saracens

To Win

294 WIN

1.55

Back it

Quality teams often respond strongly when fresh off an ordinary or worse performance. I'm banking on that here for Saracens. Plus, they should win the forward battle, which will set up the win.
23:40 Central Districts W vs Wellington W T20

Wellington W

Win Match

60 WIN

1.40

Back it

The defending champs should have too much class here for a pretty flawed CD team who are pretty weak with their bowling. Wellington have a potent batting lineup to hurt them.
28th December 2025
15:00 Exeter Chiefs v Leicester Tigers

Leicester Tigers

To Win

80 WIN

3.20

Back it

The forward battle is tight here and can even be won by the visitors. This gives them a solid chance at decent odds. 3.20 should be no bigger than 3.00 here.

Leicester Tigers 6.50

Handicap

160 WIN

1.91

Back it

This line is too high by at least 2 full points, in my opinion. The visitors will compete well in the forward battle and perhaps even win it, which will set up a competitive performance.
17:00 Toulon v Perpignan

Toulon

To Win

200 WIN

1.02

Back it

Big gulf in class between these two teams. Add the fact Toulon are at home and that Perpignan's away record in recent seasons is ordinary. This is a very likely result.
20:05 Toulouse v La Rochelle

La Rochelle

To Win

70 WIN

9.00

Back it

Not without hope at attractive odds. The hosts have the edge in the forwards; however, the visitors can match them in the backs, which gives them a puncher's chance here.
23:40 Otago W vs Canterbury W T20

Canterbury W

Win Match

290 WIN

1.91

Back it

I expect Canterbury to improve this season and Otago to go slightly backwards. Batting is quite even here; however, I think Canterbury is superior in bowling and that could be the difference.

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