ARQ007
Travelled Man of Kent. Likes: cars, sport, eating out, working out, conversation, travel, gambling, short-sleeve shirts. All teeth my own.
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ARQ007's Tips History
30 April 2025
20:30 Alex De Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti 1.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.90
Win
45
I'll take Musetti (ranked 11) here with a small head start. The 23-year-old Italian leads the head-to-head with De Minaur (ranked 7) 2-1. Whilst the matches have been close, he won on clay in Monte Carlo a few weeks ago. ADM is not best seen on clay, and whilst the faster conditions here help him, they suit the game of Musetti even more. He has the greater clay "pedigree," so with this match being scheduled for later in the day (slower conditions), I'll take the underdog.
12:00 Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi
Frances Tiafoe
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
I'll take Tiafoe (ranked 17) as underdog here. The 27yo American is not a "natural" on clay, but fast conditions here in Madrid (650m+ of altitude, warm weather) suit the power game of "Big Fo." Indeed, his big first serve was key LTO against Muller and will be the biggest weapon on court when he takes on Arnaldi (ranked 44). Here in the Spanish capital, so far Tiafoe has won a huge 88% of first serve points and - unlike Arnaldi - his delivery tends to hold up well even against better players. He's won 76% of first serve points in the past 12 months vs. current top-20 players, while Arnaldi wins only 67% of first serve points vs the same group. When these two met at Wimbledon last summer, Tiafoe won 79% on first serve versus only 63% for Arnaldi in a match that - although it went to 5 sets - Tiafoe was well ahead in the stats, 106 to 94 in terms of service/return points won totals. Ultimately, Arnaldi was overpowered by the American, and in similarly quick conditions (despite being on clay), I feel Tiafoe can achieve the same result.
Subtotal-5
28 April 2025
18:10 6:10 Naas
Real Force
Daily Racing
25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@15.00
Void
0
Five places on offer here, so I'll take a chance with this 8-year-old son of Lethal Force. He's a consistent sort who has won twice here at Naas and has mixed with top-class opposition in the past. He probably needed the run last time out on his seasonal bow when beaten 4.5 lengths in a handicap over 5f at The Curragh. The step up in trip will be fine, and he handles easy ground.
Subtotal0
27 April 2025
10:00 Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens
Aryna Sabalenka to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@1.40
Lose
-50
So, I made this very same tip just last week in Stuttgart when World #1 Sabalenka beat her former (Slam winning together) doubles partner 6-4, 6-1. Clay is not an obvious surface for the 26yo Belarusian, but as in Stuttgart (where it's indoors), it's quick conditions here in Madrid (warm weather, 650m+ of altitude) which plays to her strengths. She now has a 9-2 record vs Mertens (ranked 29), winning the last 7 in straight sets. For her part, the 29yo Belgian is now 0-9 vs top 10 opponents in the past 12 months, 7 of those defeats in straight sets.
Subtotal-50
26 April 2025
17:25 5:25 Haydock
Yabher
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.00
Lose
-50
William Haggas places horses with a profile like the selection with great skill, and this 3yo Sea The Stars colt will have come on from his pipe-opener at the Craven meeting, where he didn’t act on the undulations at HQ. However, he ran well enough here over C&D last October on his second racecourse start. The yard has a near 30% strike rate here at Haydock, and he's now 2lbs down to 80 from 82. As we know, he'll prefer this flat track. He's worth a shot.
15:35 3:35 Sandown
Jonbon
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@1.57
Lose
-50
I mean, what can you say about Nicky Henderson's 9-year-old son of Walk In The Park? He's a four-time winner over this C&D. He's looking for a third straight win of this race, having beaten off the 175-rated El Fabiolo last year, and won 10 Group 1s in total. The one to beat here.
15:25 3:25 Navan
Kyprios
Daily Racing
68 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@1.30
Win
20
What can you say about Aiden O'Brien's 7yo son of Galileo, who's rated nearly 20 pounds clear of his rivals here. Yes, it's his seasonal bow and I'm sure he's got his sights set well beyond this race, but this really should be a straightforward matter. This remarkable stayer has already won this race twice before and was a perfect seven from seven last season, winning four Group 1s in a row before lifting the Long Distance Cup on British Champions Day.
14:25 2:25 Sandown
Gaelic Warrior
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.25
Win
62
The Mullins machine is epitomized here in Esger by this dual Group 1-winning novice last season (2m and 2m3f). He was back to his best when taking the 3m1f Group 1 at Aintree LTO, and on that form, is clearly the one to beat in the quest for the UK Trainers' title.
14:05 2:05 Leicester
Completely Random
Daily Racing
25 EW
@6.50
Win
165
I've followed Harry Charlton's 4yo son of Havana Grey since I saw his 0.5 length runner-up run on his second ever run in a 6f Novices heat at Wolves in late 2023. He won NTO in a similar race over the same C&D and whilst it took a few tries, he finally landed a handicap by 3/4 length off a mark of 86 over 5f at Southwell LTO on seasonal bow. He's pretty consistent and the return/step up in trip to 6f should suit, and he should strip fitter for that run so although up 6 pounds, I think he'll go well.
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10:00 Diana Shnaider vs Anastasija Sevastova
Diana Shnaider
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.42
Win
21
Sevastova did the business for us LTO. The 35-year-old Latvian (currently unranked, as she makes her way back from both maternity leave and then a 14-month break for an injured ACL) beat a not-surprisingly (here!) unfocused Ostapenko. Sevastova is a very unusual player, but whatever "fazed" Ostapenko post-Stuttgart win should not afflict Shnaider (ranked 13). The 21-year-old Russian has made a very swift rise through the rankings in the last 18 months and has shown a great deal of focus and resolve in doing so. She picked up 2 clay titles last year (Paris, Budapest) and really should be winning this one.
Subtotal168
25 April 2025
17:00 5:00 Perth
The Hatchet
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.50
Lose
-50
Lucinda Russell is always a trainer to keep onside at this venue, and this Vadamos gelding ran a race full of promise on his Rules debut at Ayr last month, on very holding ground. His rider that day, Derek Fox, held him up before making smooth progress on the turn for home. Passing horses with ease, he emerged onto the scene approaching the two-furlong pole but ran out of steam as the leaders quickened in the closing stages. In the end, he was beaten just over 5 lengths but created a good impression, especially as that ground probably wouldn’t have suited him, as this is a gelding with a good turn of foot. Hopefully, the ground at Perth will allow him to showcase that today.
15:35 3:35 Sandown
Windlord
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-50
Andrew Balding's yard has been irrepressible so far this season and they have won this three times since 2015. This Dubawi colt closed out a progressive juvenile season with a staying-on third in an Irish Group 2 over a mile and shaped there as if 10f would suit. Makes plenty of appeal.
14:25 2:25 Sandown
See The Fire
Daily Racing
25 EW
@3.75
Lose
-50
I have been waiting for Andrew Balding's 4yo daughter of Sea The Stars to try a mile and a half at some stage. Her half-sister Spirit Mixer won over 2 miles, and she has been staying on strongly at the finish over shorter trips. This Group 3 over a testing mile and a quarter is a good place to start, and she has the best speed figure in the field. Yard and jockey in great form, what's not to like?
13:00 Ethan Quinn vs Jakub Mensik
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.87
Lose
-50
Round 2 in Madrid sees the seeds enter the fray, and for some, this is their first or second clay match of the season. For Mensik (ranked 23), it’s his second match on dirt after he lost in Munich, and this looks like a similarly tricky test for the 19-year-old Czech, whose numbers on clay aren’t great. He faces 21-year-old American Ethan Quinn (ranked 119), who's shown an impressive level on this clay swing, with a 75% win rate and a service/return points won total of 99 against some decent opposition. Quinn qualified here against Lajovic and Monteiro and also beat Coric and Moutet on slow clay in Barcelona, as well as very nearly taking a set off Carlos Alcaraz. Mensik has mediocre stats on clay over the last 12 months, with a service/return points won total of 97 and a win rate of 55% at the main level. Given his serving prowess and the quick conditions (at altitude) in Madrid, we should see Mensik hold a lot, but he’s lacking matches on clay, so Quinn should have enough moments in this match to take it past this line of 22.5.
Ethan Quinn 3.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
Given this is just the second match on dirt this year for Mensik (ranked 23) after he lost in Munich, and the fact that this looks a tricky test for the 19-year-old Czech (whose numbers on clay aren’t great), I'll oppose him on the spread. He faces 21-year-old American Ethan Quinn (ranked 119) who's shown an impressive level on this clay swing, with a 75% win rate and a service/return points won total of 99 vs some decent opposition. Quinn qualified here vs decent clay yardsticks in Lajovic and Monteiro; he beat Coric and Moutet on slow clay in Barcelona, where he very nearly took a set off Carlos Alcaraz. Mensik has mediocre stats on clay over the last 12 months, with a service/return points won total of 97 and a win rate of 55% at main level. Given he’s lacking matches on clay, I feel Quinn should have enough moments in this match to beat this number.
13:00 Taylor Fritz vs Christopher OConnell
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
These two have played each other just twice before, but the first time they met was here in Madrid in 2023. Although world #4 Fritz won in straight sets, it was a tight, serve-dominated affair. The 27-year-old American held serve 100% of the time and won 83% of his first serve points. O'Connell (ranked 87) held 91% and won 82% of his first serve points. Each won approximately 20-30% of return points. The 30-year-old Aussie had a decent R1 win here, so I like Overs.
10:00 Benjamin Bonzi vs Hubert Hurkacz
Over 23.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
At odds against, with what is (for a Hurkacz match!) a rather low totals number, I'll go Overs. Yes, it's a clay court event, but conditions are fast for the dirt here in Madrid, with over 650m of altitude and warm weather forecast. Also, Hurkacz (ranked 28) comes into the match cold. The tall, 28-year-old Pole has struggled with a back injury and hasn’t played for 6 weeks and not at all on clay. He's not played on dirt since last year's French Open. Given the big man struggles to find his rhythm off the ground after periods away from the tour, I’d suspect that he’ll take his time again to get back to his best and will rely heavily on that huge first serve here. Bonzi (ranked 62) will also enjoy the fast conditions, and he’s just beaten a similarly big server in the in-form Marin Cilic in straight sets in the opening round. So, the 28-year-old Frenchman should be dialed in on his return, so I like the chances of this being serve-dominated.
Benjamin Bonzi
1st Set Winner
50 WIN
@2.50
Win
75
Hurkacz (ranked 28) comes into the match cold. The tall, 28-year-old Pole has been struggling with a back injury lately and hasn’t played for six weeks, and not at all on clay this year. He's not played on dirt since last year's French Open, and given how the big man struggles to find his rhythm off the ground after periods away from the tour, this looks a chance for Bonzi (ranked 62). After Hurkacz got injured at Wimbledon last summer, he came back and went 6-5 win/loss for the remainder of the season. So I’d suspect that he’ll take his time again to get back to his best and will rely heavily on that huge first serve here. But Bonzi will also enjoy the fast conditions in Madrid (warm weather, 650m of altitude), and he’s just beaten a similarly big server in the in-form Marin Cilic in straight sets in the opening round. So, the 28-year-old Frenchman should be dialed in on his return and much sharper than the Pole. So I like Bonzi to win the opening set against an opponent likely to take his time to find his best level.
10:00 Damir Dzumhur vs Mattia Bellucci
Mattia Bellucci 1.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
I like Bellucci (ranked 66) as an underdog in the quicker conditions here in Madrid, where there's 650m+ of altitude. He faces an out-and-out grinder, Dzumhur (ranked 63), and though Bellucci isn’t known for his clay expertise, he showed what he can do on quicker clay when making the QFs in Marrakech a few weeks ago. It’s quicker still in Madrid (at 650m+ of altitude), which should help his more aggressive game. Dzumhur hasn’t played here since 2019, where he's won just 1 of his 3 career matches. Bellucci beat Dzumhur easily on clay with virtually no altitude at the Cordenons Challenger in their only career meeting back in 2022, so he should be confident about this one. The same can’t really be said of Dzumhur, who arrives in Madrid having not beaten a top-200 player in a completed match for over a month. Bellucci’s form isn’t fabulous in recent weeks, but he did beat Cam Norrie on slow clay in Monte-Carlo, and these quicker conditions should favour the Italian.
Subtotal-325
24 April 2025
14:30 Anastasija Sevastova vs Jelena Ostapenko
Anastasija Sevastova 5.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
I just feel this is too much of an overreaction by the bookies, and these are too many games to give to Sevastova as a head start. The 35-year-old Latvian is currently unranked as she makes her way back from both maternity leave and then another 14-month break for an injured ACL. But she beat Pavlyuchenkova in R1 here and does hold a 2-0 career H2H over her 27-year-old compatriot Ostapenko (ranked 18), who's just won the title in Stuttgart. That title win had victories over world #2 Swiatek and #1 Sabalenka, but we know Ostapenko so often follows a tournament win with a total flop. Sevastova is a very unusual player and won't be fazed by playing her compatriot. Small risk here.
11:30 Daniel Altmaier vs Nicolas Jarry
Daniel Altmaier
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.67
Lose
-50
I'll take a shot with Altmaier (ranked 67) here as the 26-year-old German has a decent enough record here in Madrid (6-3, his last two defeats in the main draw to then #20 Coric in 2023 and #9 Hurkacz last year). He's 7-3 on clay in 2025, and we know he likes quicker conditions on the dirt, which we get here with the 650m+ of altitude. Jarry (ranked 57) has a dire record here, 0-3, and the 29-year-old Chilean is just 1-6 on clay in 2025 (his sole win vs. #126 ranked JM Cerundolo).
Subtotal-10
23 April 2025
15:08 3:08 Ludlow
The Bold Thady
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 5.00 used instead of 3.50 takenBOG
@5.00
Lose
-5
Neil Mulholland's 8yo Milan gelding was left with a bit too much to do when beaten 3 lengths off a rating of 105 at Ascot on his last run, but I think you can mark that run up. He's typically held up and if he's fit after a short break he should be bang there with a 7 pound claimer aboard in what is a winnable heat.
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15:00 Francisco Comesana vs Pedro Martinez
Francisco Comesana
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Martinez (ranked 48) has a dismal record at home at the main level. The 27-year-old Spaniard has only 1 win (last week in Barcelona in a tight win over Nakashima) in his 9 matches, all but one played on his favored clay. He’s 0-2 here in Madrid, and on the clay stats of the last 12 months, it’s Comesana (ranked 70) that leads the way. At the main level in the last year, the 24-year-old Argentine has a service/return points won total of 100 and a win rate of 55%, compared to a 46% win rate and a 97 total for Martinez. Comesana has a much more effective first serve, which is likely to be key in these conditions, with 71% first serve points won and 81% holds of serve on clay at the main level in the last year, versus 63% and 72% holds for Martinez. Comesana made the final on slow clay in a Challenger in Portugal, and we’ve seen how effective he can be in quicker conditions at Wimbledon and the US Open. I think this big stage player has the edge in this match.
14:30 Alex Michelsen vs Alexander Bublik
Alexander Bublik
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
Bublik (ranked 75) is not known as a clay-courter, but the mercurial 27-year-old from Kazakhstan actually has a decent record here in Madrid. The altitude and faster conditions suit his game. He's played a few matches on European red clay already, as opposed to Michelsen (ranked 38), who's played on American clay, which is rather different. The 20-year-old American has a poor record on European clay, so at evens, I'll take a shot on the enigma that is Bublik.
Subtotal91
20 April 2025
15:52 3:52 Southwell
Nebras
Daily Racing
76 WINNAP
@1.40
Lose
-76
John and Thady Gosden's Dubawi colt won a Newmarket maiden on debut, the form of which looks pretty good in hindsight. Although well beaten when 7th of 8 in the Futurity (G1, 8f) at Doncaster, he was by no means disgraced. This is a massive drop in class, Hollie Doyle booked, and should be very hard to beat despite being on a seasonal debut.
13:30 Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini
Aryna Sabalenka
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.25
Win
12
The career H2H may be 4-2, but world #1 Sabalenka has won the last 3 encounters with Paolini (ranked 6) in straight sets (including Miami just a few weeks ago). And whilst it's 'clay' here in Stuttgart, it's indoors, under the lights, and quick conditions - all of which play to the strengths of Sabalenka. Paolini last beat her 3 years ago on the slower hard courts of Indian Wells. Sabalenka is on an 8-match win streak, having won the title in Miami, and should win this one as she looks to rectify the fact she has made 3 finals here but is yet to take the title.
Subtotal-64
19 April 2025
20:00 8:00 Wolverhampton
Miss Moonshine
Daily Racing
25 EW
@29.00
Lose
-50
So a word of warning, this 5yo Outstrip mare is not the most consistent and her last run was dire, but that's figured into a huge price where we have 4 places on offer. But there was too much use made of her LTO when beaten 8.5 lengths in a handicap at Lingfield, and she was a 0.75 lengths third over this C&D immediately prior to that run, so she's in the mix on the pick of her form and worth a punt at these odds.
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18:30 6:30 Wolverhampton
Gincident
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@1.67
Lose
-50
James Owen's 5yo Cotai Glory gelding was well backed LTO on stable bow (had been with Richard Fahey) and landed a handicap by a neck off a mark of 72 at Leicester. Wears a tongue-tie here for the first time at a venue where he's gone well previously so if he is back to his former best, looks the one to beat.
17:55 5:55 Wolverhampton
Skibo
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.50
Lose
-50
Ralph Beckett's 3yo New Approach gelding ran twice last season in, what are in hindsight, a couple of pretty warm events, finishing third on both occasions. Latterly, when benefiting from debut experience and beaten 2 lengths in a maiden over 8f at Goodwood. Has the top course jockey on board and back down in trip, looks to have at least good each-way claims on Tapeta debut.
17:20 5:20 Wolverhampton
Gatsby Cap
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Win
30
Not an easy one to unravel and there's quite a few with questions next to them, even after decent recent runs. This 9yo Gale Force Ten gelding comes over from Ireland with some indifferent recent form, but on his past efforts he clearly has a shout at this level, and this is his trip. Is now weighted very lightly and has a capable 5 pound claimer aboard, so if not now, when..?
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16:00 Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens
Aryna Sabalenka to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@1.55
Win
28
World #1 Sabalenka has made the final here in Stuttgart on three occasions, losing each time, but all three were to the then world #1 (Barty, 2x Swiatek), so she has an 11-4 record here. Clay is not an obvious surface for the 26-year-old Belarusian, but it's indoors and pretty quick conditions, which play to her strengths. She also has an 8-2 record vs her former doubles partner Mertens (ranked 29), winning the last 6 in straight sets. For her part, the 29-year-old Belgian is 0-8 vs top 10 opponents in the past 12 months, 6 of those defeats in straight sets.
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15:15 3:15 Haydock
Le Milos
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.00
Lose
-50
The Skeltons send out another one in a bid to nab the UK Trainers' title, and this one can nab some prize money towards that goal. He was well-backed when scoring at Warwick three starts ago in one of these Veterans events. Whilst not so good the last two times, those were in graded company, so back in this sphere, he's a big player for the Skeltons.
15:00 3:00 Musselburgh
Jer Batt
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.00
Lose
-5
Won his only previous start here over C&D in 2023 (also won FTO that season) and had a lot of decent runs last term, including a close second to Cover Up at Doncaster LTO in October. The Tony Barron team won this in 2022, and he looks a contender if in top form on return.
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14:30 RB Leipzig v Holstein Kiel
RB Leipzig
50 WIN
@1.40
Lose
-50
It's tough to see Red Bull not winning this one. Leipzig are fourth in the table and have won 8 of their 14 games at home (W8, D4, L2), whilst today's visitors Holstein Kiel are 10th in the Bundesliga and have just the one away win all season from 14 attempts (W1, D4, L9). They have not won in their last 6 games and have the worst defensive record in the league, conceding 70 goals in 29 matches.
14:05 2:05 Haydock
Givemefive
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.50
Win
135
Harry Derham's 5-year-old son of Holy Roman Emperor is top-rated here and was a front-running winner at Newcastle LTO. Raised 4lb for that, and any rain won't be a problem, so he's a leading player in what is a very winnable race.
13:00 Jelena Ostapenko vs Iga Swiatek
Jelena Ostapenko 4.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
While it's true that they have never met on clay before, the fact is that the unpredictable maelstrom that is Ostapenko (ranked 24) has a 5-0 record vs. world #2 Swiatek, and most of her wins have been pretty dominant. Given that here in Stuttgart, while it is clay, it's indoors and pretty fast, that also plays to the strengths of the 27-year-old Latvian who, lest we forget, is a former French Open champion. Yes, Swiatek is twice a champion here, but the 23-year-old Polish player is yet to make the final of a WTA event this season, and there have been some odd losses with her seemingly struggling to play in line with new coach Wim Fissette's guidelines. I'll take the head start here.
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Subtotal-16
16 April 2025
14:32 2:32 Gowran Park
Aston Value
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.00 used instead of 3.50 takenBOG
@4.00
Win
90
Johnny Murtagh's 3yo Zoustar gelding did benefit from his debut experience when a 4.25 lengths third in a maiden over 6f at Curragh when last seen in September. He has cheekpieces on for the first time here. The faster ground should not be an issue, and if his stamina holds up over the 7f, he should be right there in a very winnable heat.
14:30 Tallon Griekspoor vs Yannick Hanfmann
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
At evens, I'll chance the over here as we have Hanfmann (ranked 131) in his almost ideal situation here in Munich. The 33-year-old German is playing on clay, with a bit of altitude (520m) and warmer weather than usual expected in the Bavarian capital. With his big serve, Griekspoor (ranked 37) is always tough to beat, and the 28-year-old Dutchman still hit 14% aces in his R1 win here.
Yannick Hanfmann 3.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
As in R1, I'm slightly surprised to get a big spread for Hanfmann (ranked 131) who is in his almost ideal situation here in Munich. The 33-year-old German is playing at home, on clay, with a bit of altitude (520m) and warmer weather than usual expected in the Bavarian capital. Hanfmann used to train here and has a great record here in his "home" event. With his big serve, Griekspoor (ranked 37) is always tough to beat, but the 28-year-old Dutch player has never really convinced me on clay. He got to the final in Marrakech recently, but I'll take a shot on the "local" lad.
13:00 Alexander Zverev vs Daniel Altmaier
Over 20.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.90
Lose
-50
I actually feel that this match will be pretty close. Given we're expecting warm conditions in Munich (around 24°C, far hotter than usual this time of year) and there's a modicum of altitude here, I think service holds will prevail. Altmaier (ranked 68) actually beat his 27-year-old compatriot, world #5 Zverev, in Acapulco last year. The 26-year-old German took a set off Zverev at the US Open in 2023 - both matches on hard courts that would favor Zverev. Altmaier won 85% of first serve points in his R1 match here, so I like Overs.
Daniel Altmaier 4.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
At odds against, I'll take Altmaier (ranked 68) with a big head start. I believe this match will be pretty close. We're expecting warm conditions in Munich (around 24°C, far hotter than usual this time of year), and there's a modicum of altitude here, so I think service holds will prevail. Altmaier actually beat his 27-year-old compatriot, world #5 Zverev, in Acapulco last year, and the 26-year-old German took a set off Zverev at the US Open in 2023. Both matches were on hard courts that would favor Zverev. Altmaier won 85% of first serve points in his R1 match here, so he will be tricky to break, and the crowd will be split evenly across two 'home' players, surely?
11:30 Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Ben Shelton
Botic Van De Zandschulp 1.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.87
Lose
-50
A bet on Botic Van De Zandschulp is always a brave one as his attitude is never a given, and he can just fade from matches. But the moody 29-year-old Dutchman (ranked 89) excels in Munich, with a 9-3 record and a service/return points won total of 107. Shelton (ranked 15) doesn't have a great record on clay (particularly European clay) and probably shouldn’t be in R2 having faced 3 match points and been second best by some way in his R1 clash with Gojo. The Croatian led the service/return points won totals of that match by 106 to 94, but lost his nerve on big points, letting Shelton steal the win. The 22-year-old American has lost 12 of his 19 matches on European red clay at main level (37% win rate) and BVDZ won’t fear him having beaten him in their only career meeting. The Dutchman has also beaten other big servers in Kyrgios, Opelka, and Hurkacz. Botic should get some positivity from being back on centre stage in Munich where he has such a great record, so I'll risk him here.
10:00 Luciano Darderi vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Luciano Darderi
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
With warm conditions expected (around 24°C), far hotter than usual in Munich this time of year. The clay here is very thick and there’s a heavy layer of it, so it’ll still play slower than some of the clay events at altitude. So to me, the in-form Darderi (ranked 47) looks a bit of value against the unpredictable Kecmanovic (ranked 48). Darderi has won 10 of his last 11 matches on clay and has a good record on clay at altitude, with titles in Cordoba and Marrakech. Kecmanovic has gone well at altitude in the past, but the 25-year-old Serbian so often loses matches he should win and Darderi's confidence must be sky high.
Subtotal-120
15 April 2025
16:30 Stan Wawrinka vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Stan Wawrinka
1st Set Winner
50 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-50
I’m going to keep backing veteran Wawrinka (ranked 162) to win his opening set, as it's been a profitable tactic for a while now. Here the 40-year-old Swiss faces a potentially injured opponent in Davidovich Fokina (ranked 30), who had a shoulder problem in the Monte Carlo SF Saturday. ADF also has a weak record in Barcelona, where many Spaniards struggle to perform at home. He’s 2-3 here and 12 months ago got a walkover in R1 then lost to Lajovic. Ultimately, I expect him to get the better of Stan, but the latter will have had more time to prepare for this, and he still wins a lot of opening sets before fading physically. Wawrinka has now won 11 of his last 16 opening sets at main level (and the last 5 straight!), 69%, equating to odds of 1.45 (-223). He did it again in Monte Carlo last week, where he blitzed Tabilo before losing 7-5 in a decider. Wawrinka beat Davidovich Fokina only 6 months ago in Stockholm on indoor hard, and at big odds, I'll chance him here.
10:00 Yannick Hanfmann vs Jakub Mensik
Yannick Hanfmann 3.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
I confess I'm slightly surprised to get such a big spread for Hanfmann (ranked 131), who is in an almost ideal situation here in Munich. The 33-year-old German is playing at home, on clay, with a bit of altitude (520m) and warmer weather than usual expected in the Bavarian capital. In fact, Hanfmann trains here, so he is familiar with the conditions??"more so than Mensik (ranked 23), who’s never played here and arrives after winning his biggest tour title in Miami a few weeks ago (it’s his first clay match of the year). Hanfmann has never lost in R1 of the main draw here (5-0) and won their last H2H on clay in Rome last year. He also has (slightly) better main level clay stats over the last 12 months.
Subtotal5
14 April 2025
18:30 McCartney Kessler vs Fiona Ferro
Fiona Ferro 3.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.90
Win
45
I'm taking Ferro (ranked) with a head start here as not only will the 28-year-old French player get home support, but she's far more experienced on clay than Kessler (ranked 43). Ferro has a very low ranking as she had a long injury layoff at the end of last year. Kessler is in form at present, but the 25-year-old American has been playing in her favored conditions - faster, hard courts. She's just 1-4 on clay at WTA level since 2023, Ferro is 9-9.
14:18 2:18 Hexham
Young Getaway
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-50
Nicky Richards' 6yo Getaway gelding won a maiden hurdle at Newcastle over 2m1f nicely last time out, with a bit in hand, by 5 lengths. Gets some drying ground here, which is a plus. Returns after a short break, and the yard doesn't send that many this way.
Subtotal-5
13 April 2025
18:45 6:45 Musselburgh
Ramazan
Daily Racing
25 EW
@SP
Lose
-50
Richard Fahey's 5-year-old son of Kodiac has been racing in better company than this and putting up a decent show of things. Ran a bit below par when down the field in the Listed Wentworth Stakes over 6f at Doncaster on his most recent start, but dropped 2 pounds and in class. Return to 7f a plus; top stable jockey back on board, and I think he's the value of the yard's 2 runners.
18:15 6:15 Musselburgh
Mister Bluebird
Daily Racing
25 EW
@9.50
Win
17
Heather Main's 7yo Outstrip gelding drops 3 pounds and into a Class 4 and returns to a course and distance where in his 2 runs he's a win and a place. Given we have 4 places on offer here, I'll take a chance with a horse who's pretty consistent at this level.
17:15 5:15 Musselburgh
Tafsir
Daily Racing
25 EW
@29.00
Lose
-50
With 4 places here, and these odds, I have to take a stab at Jim Goldie's 6-year-old Tamarkuz mare who's got 3 wins and a place (including a C&D win) from 8 runs here at Musselburgh. In her last 8 starts, she's alternated a win with a loss and was well beaten LTO in a handicap at Newmarket. But she was in good form prior to that and is a top course trainer, so with conditions fine, while she might need the run, I'll take a stab.
15:25 3:25 Stratford
Foreverwalking
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
Kevin Frost's 7yo Walk In The Park gelding won a 3m PtP at Quakerstown almost exactly 3 years ago and was then purchased for the Willie Mullins yard, for whom he ran in 2 bumpers, about a year apart, finishing runner-up on the second. Then bought by new connections and his 3 runs this year have been variable. Looked back to form on his penultimate start, but found nothing latest after being a touch free LTO when well beaten in a handicap hurdle over 2m4f at Southwell. But there is clearly talent there, trainer in reasonable form, dropped 5 pounds and into a Class 5, so I'm hoping for a bounce back here.
14:40 2:40 Tramore
Soir De Garde
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@1.91
Win
45
I think it would be a fair statement to make if I say that the Willie Mullins yard is in decent form at present. So this 7yo Kapgarde gelding, who is a half-brother to State Man for the same connections, really should take all the beating here on hurdles bow. Had 2 decent runs in Bumpers last year, clearly the one they all have to beat.
14:05 2:05 Tramore
Qualimita
Daily Racing
92 WINNB
@1.44
Lose
-92
Quite frankly this maiden hurdle shouldn't take a lot of winning so Gordon Elliott's expensive PtP recruit, rated some 18 pounds clear of her next rival, really should take it. Although comfortably held in a handicap hurdle over 2m at Navan LTO, she ran very much to her (consistent) form and is the one to beat here.
Subtotal-180
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