ARQ007

Travelled Man of Kent. Likes: cars, sport, eating out, working out, conversation, travel, gambling, short-sleeve shirts. All teeth my own.

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ARQ007's Tips History

25 July 2024

13:00 Pedro Martinez vs Facundo Diaz Acosta

Pedro Martinez

Win Match

52 WIN

@2.10

Lose

-52

Another day, another false favourite here in my opinion. I'm not sure why Martinez (ranked 45) is the underdog here. He has 2-0 H2H record against Diaz Acosta (ranked 77) including this season at altitude on clay (as here) in Santiago. And I can't see why a deciding set win over Galan LTO makes these odds as they are, but I'll take them.

Over 22.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.91

Win

Martinez (ranked 45) has 2-0 H2H record against Diaz Acosta (ranked 77) with one of those matches this season at altitude on clay (as here) in Santiago. That match went to a decider and featured two TB sets, so I like the Overs here.

00:00 Aslan Karatsev vs Frances Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.44

Win

If Tiafoe (ranked 29) didn't win this match he'd be very dissapointed. The 26yo American has deliberately missed the Olympics to take part on tournaments on home soil and try to get some wins under his belt after a rather poor season results-wise. He's just 15-18 on the season but clearly the fire is still there as evidenced by his near-win over eventual champ Alcaraz at Wimbledon, losing in the fifth set. Karatsev is now ranked 107 after an injury hit season for the 30yo Russian who had to have knee surgery in January. He's played just 8 matches since and he's just 2-6. At his peak (he was ranked #14 in Feb 2022) he'd be a tough proposition but given his lack of matches and form, I have to back "Big 'Fo".

24 July 2024

20:00 Luciano Darderi vs Jakub Mensik

Luciano Darderi

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.57

Lose

-50

In his senior career, Mensik (ranked 81) has played just 4 matches at main ATP level and the 18yo Czech is 2-2 but both wins came in quick conditions in Madrid (he's much better results on hard courts). In Darderi (ranked 33) he faces a real clay-courter and the 22yo Italian is 33-13 on the dirt in 2024, 26-4 vs players ranked outside the top 50. He'll get plenty of support from his compatriots here as well.

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18:30 Fabio Fognini vs Chun Hsin Tseng

Fabio Fognini

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.44

Lose

-50

This match is supposed to be Fognini (ranked 70) vs world #16 Rune but teh latter has withdrawn so the 37yo Italian veteran gets "Lucky Loser" Chun Hsin Tseng (ranked 159). The 22yo from Chinese Taipei lost to #406 ranked Andreozzi in the final Qualies round here and competes mostly at Challenger level. He is 32-15 on the dirt in the past 12 months but he'll face a "Foggy" who - with vociferous Italian support here in Umag - can surely smell a chance at a final title?

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16:10 4:10 Catterick

One More Dream

Daily Racing

25 EW

@3.75

Lose

-50

Knew I should have tipped this one last night (when a decent 6-1 at some bookies) but I still like the Quinn's 5yo Bated Breath gelding who went into my Tracker in March when he won a shade cosily at Newcastle (7f) having been well handicapped off a mark of 68. He's now down to a rating of 64 and is a previous course winner and won twice at Southwell in March. Was a decent fifth of 9 in a handicap at Pontefract (6f, good) 5 days ago and if recovered should be thereabouts.

15:30 Francisco Cerundolo vs Matej Dodig

Over 20.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-50

Just as for my Games Won tip (see separate write up) a small risk on local WC Dodig here as I'm not sure Cerundolo will be 100% motivated here in Umag. Given the likelihood of rain interruptions as well, which always cause changes in momentum in matches, my main fear here is that Cerundolo just throws in the towel early.

Matej Dodig 4.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@2.10

Lose

-50

At +4.5 games and odds against a small risk on Dodig (ranked 310) here as the 19yo Croatian - who should get some decent home support - really has little to lose and has shown some decent levels in Challenger and other lower level events. He's yet to face a top 100 ranked opponent in his career but in Cerundolo (ranked 37) he faces someone who is likely looking ahead to the Paris Olympics (which start Saturday) and is probably not looking forward to playing in 32deg heat (with possible interruptions for storms) and I know from various sources he's not looked overly happy whilst practicing at the venue. Worth a shot.

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15:30 Lorenzo Sonego vs Alexandre Muller

Lorenzo Sonego

Win Match

50 WIN

@2.10

Win

A risky play here given how these two finished their R1 matches but Sonego (ranked 54) is IMO by far the better player of these two, but he's the Dog here because he finished his R1 match vs 20yo Croatian Poljicak with major cramps. The 29yo Italian could barely serve and won the deciding set TB (11-9) largely on a superb return of serve and a rather messy fluff into the net by his opponent. Muller (ranked 102) got what looks an impressive win over last year's SF-ist here Arnaldi but the 27yo Frenchman was rather lucky to be in receipt of a bagful of Unforced Errors from his opponent. Were this a R1 match with no other factors, Sonego would easily be favourite here and with nearly 48 hours to recover I'll take these odds.

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15:00 Marco Trungelliti vs Lorenzo Musetti

Over 20.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.85

Lose

-50

A small risk on teh Overs here because although generally I'd expect world #17 ranked Musetti to win pretty comfortably vs an opponent ranked 119 places below him, there's a few factors at play here. Trungelliti (ranked 136) isa very experienced clay-courter and the 34yo Argentine clearly likes it here having made SFs in the past (albeit 6 years ago in 2018). He made the R16 via Qualies in Hamburg last week and has 3 wins here through Qualies so is clearly in good form. We've not seen Musetti play a match since losing his Wimbledon SF to Djokovic so I'm taking a shot at Over a reduced number here.

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14:00 Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Daniel Elahi Galan

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Win Match

85 WIN

@1.67

Win

There are three key stats for me in this match-up: Galan (ranked 137) is just 7-12 on clay at main ATP level in the last 12 months and the 28yo Colombian is only 1-11 in that span vs top 100 opponents. Also, since 2021, he's lost all 6 matches on the red stuff at ATP level vs Lefties. Diaz Acosta (ranked 77) is 26-15 on clay in teh past 12 months, 13-8 at main ATP tour level, and 4-3 vs those outside the top 100 (though a look at who he faced in that criteria shows some very decent opposition).

Over 22.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.95

Win

It's cloudy and overcast in Kitzbuhel today so winning points, even at altitude, will be tough. Both these two are "grinders" and both have played deciding sets in their last 2 (3 for Galan) matches on clay. With neither player in sparkling form, and both players (as they're not involved in the Olympics next week) invested in seeking a title here, I like Overs.

11:30 Pedro Martinez vs Sumit Nagal

Pedro Martinez

Win Match

60 WIN

@1.65

Win

I've actually backed Martinez (ranked 45) outright here in Kitzbuhel. The 27yo Spaniard is proven in conditions (clay at altitude, the Austrian city is at 762m) and he made the final here in 2021. He's in good form this year, with 6 finals in teh last 12 months (one on a hard court). Yes, 5 were at Chal;lenger level but they were decent events against the likes of Fils and Nakajima. He beat Nagal (ranked 80) en route to the Como Challenger final (clay) last year in straight sets and the 26yo Indian - although decent on clay (25-15 in teh past 12 months) - struggles against better players, just 4-5 vs top 100 opponents and 1-5 vs top 50 players in that span.

10:00 Darja Semenistaja vs Urszula Radwanska

Darja Semenistaja

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.30

Win

If this were a horse race it'd be a case of a relatively lightly raced 3yo facing a thoroughly exposed veteran handicapper. Semenistaja (ranked 141) is slowly working her way up the rankings, the 21yo Latvian is 23-9 vs opponents ranked 100+ on hard courts in the last 12 months, 12-3 vs players ranked 200+. The "other" Radwanska is now 33yo and the sister of "Aga" has fallen a long way from her peak, which was never that high. Since 2022 she's just 3-11 vs players rtanked between 100 and 200 and laboured past players ranked #999 and #274 in her first 2 matches here.

10:00 Flavio Cobolli vs Dusan Lajovic

Flavio Cobolli

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.53

Lose

-50

Even a brief look at the Stats or the form of each player here and i have to back Cobolli (ranked 48) as the 22yo Italian is in great form this year, not least when making teh SF in Geneva on clay. He's 24-12 on the dirt in the past 12 months vs opponents ranked 20+ and he obliterated #36 ranked Navone here in R1. Lajovic (ranked 53) was very lucky to get past #228 ranked Misolic in R1 and was fighting cramp at the end. The 34yo Serbian won this event in 2019 but has been back just once since and lost in his second match in 2021. He's 12-11 on clay in the past 12 months but just 10-8 vs top 100 players.

10:00 Laslo Djere vs Thiago Seyboth Wild

Laslo Djere

Win Match

52 WIN

@1.73

Lose

-52

At these odds I'll happily take Djere (ranked 57) here as the 29yo Serbian not only has a 3-0 H2H record vs Seyboth Wild (ranked 72) but has a very decebt record here in Kitzbuhel, twice a SF-ist (last year he lost a very tight match to local hero Thiem, 6-7, 7-5, 7-6). Djere has rather struggled with injuroes this term but has looked good recently and is a solid player on clay, which is likely where he gets the advantage on his 24yo Brazilian opponent who loves the flashy shot and to hit winners. Keep him in a rally - esp. on his backhand - and it will breakdown eventually.

00:00 Andres Martin vs Juncheng Shang

Juncheng Shang

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.17

Win

Martin (ranked 483) is - at best - a Challenger level player and the 23yo American got a WC into this event. He's 1-3 in his career vs top 100 ranked opponents and he's also 1-4 career vs lefties. Shang Juncheng (ranked 89) is a player on the up, the 19yo Chinese Southpaw has climed up te reankings ladder the past 12-18 months from the upper-100s and he's beaten 2 decent ATP yardsticks in Qualies here (JJ Wolf, Liam Broady) to make the main draw, He's 15-5 on hard courts in the past 12 months vs players ranked outside the top 100. He took 2 sets off Dimitrov at Wimbled this summer so his level should be much higher.

23 July 2024

15:00 Luciano Darderi vs Duje Ajdukovic

Duje Ajdukovic 3.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

Ajdukovic (ranked 130) had a great week in Bastad last week, when he almost (and probably should have!) beaten Rafa - the 23yo Croatian was a set and a break up in their SF match having gotten through via Qualies. He's now in front of a home crowd and in Darderi (ranked 35) faces an opponent who is struggling physically. He picked up a back injury in the QFs in Hamburg. I'll take the head start here.

10:00 Hugo Gaston vs Daniel Altmaier

Daniel Altmaier

Win Match

66 WIN

@1.67

Lose

-66

Gaston (ranked 91) is a talented player but the 23yo Frenchman is rather streaky (aka moody!) and he really should have beaten eventual finalist Zverev last week in Hamburg, but rather ended up beating himself. He made the QFs in the Lyon ATP event in May and teh final in a Challenger event last month, and is 17-14 on the dirt in the last 12 months. But he's just 3-8 vs top 100 opposition in that span. Altmaier (ranked 71) made the SFs here in 2021 and conditions here at altitude suit the 25yo German (they'll help his kick-serve). He's only 13-17 on clay in the past 12 months, but he's 7-13 vs top 100 players (so has clearly played tougher events).

Over 22.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@2.00

Win

AT Evens I'll go Over here as whilst I do think Altmaier (ranked 71) wins this one (see separate tip), Gaston (ranked 91) has been in decent form and is a tricky opponent, who's playing style takes a while to get used to - and these two have never met before. Both have played deciding set matches in their last 2 encounters (all on clay) and the altitude here in Kitzbuhel favours servers.

09:00 Magda Linette vs Rebeka Masarova

Magda Linette

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.65

Win

Linette (ranked 48) made the final on the clay in Rouen earlier this year (losing to Sloane Stephens) and the 32yo Polish player is 11-6 on the red stuff the last 12 months, but it's taken some very good opponents to beat her - Azarenka, Keys, Pegula Sabalenka and Samsonova in addition to Stephens. She's 7-0 vs players outside the top 50. Masarova (ranked 111) is not at that level, the 24yo Spaniard is 1-4 on clay in the past 12 months vs top 100 ranked opponents.

22 July 2024

16:30 4:30 Cartmel

Ilikedwayurthinkin

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 2.88 on 21/07 at 23:010.00 deduction for Wheres Bunny@13.00 withdrawn at 07:250.15 deduction for Happy Du Mesnil @5.500 withdrawn at 07:470.00 deduction for Coqolino @29.000 withdrawn at 11:53R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 1.88 x (1-0.15) = 2.60

@2.60

Win

I've written before about trainer Ben Haslam liking to run horses owned by JP McManus here at Cartmel and this horse is no exception. He was a useful handicap hurdler/chaser in Ireland for Gavin Cromwell (rated 139 at his peak) who's come back to form on his last 2 starts for this yard, cashing in on a much-reduced mark over C&D last month, well on top finish. 8 lb higher now but still only on a mark of 118, so that may not be enough to prevent the follow up.

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15:30 Thiago Monteiro vs Tomas Machac

Thiago Monteiro

Win Match

50 WIN

@2.10

Win

Monteiro (ranked 85) has played 7 matches on clay since Wimbledon and had a decent run at Bastad last week, where he beat tournament favourite Casper Ruud. Machac (ranked 38) is playing his first match back on clay since Wimbledon and generally does play better in faster conditions. It's slow and humid here in Umag and Monteiro will be used to such conditions.

15:00 Nuria Brancaccio vs Jaqueline Cristian

Jaqueline Cristian

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.29

Win

A cursory look at the numbers for Brancaccio (ranked 232) shows the 24yo Italian to be 31-17 on clay this year and with , but she’s mostly played at much lower level events and is just 2-13 career vs top 100 players (0-7 in the past 12 months) and 5-5 on clay at main WTA tour level this year with all 5 wins in Qualifying. She’s already lost in Qualies here in Iasi to 38yo veteran Lepchenko (ranked 187) and is 0-2 in her career H2H with Cristian (ranked 66), their last meeting in similar conditions in Bari last year (clay) which the 26yo Romanian won 6-3,6-4. Cristian will get home support here and is 24-12 on the dirt in the past 12 months (mostly at main WTA level), 17-4 in that span vs players outside the top 100

13:00 Anna Karolina Schmiedlova vs Kathinka Von Deichmann

Anna Karolina Schmiedlova

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.29

Lose

-50

Schmiedlova (ranked 79) is a former top 30 player and the 29yo Slovakian is at her best on clay. She's 17-10 on the dirt in that last 12 months and 12-5 in that span vs opponent ranked outside the top 100. Von Deichmann (ranked 247) plays primarily at much lower level events and the 30yo from Liechtenstein is just 3-6 career vs top 100 ranked opposition.

21 July 2024

20:00 Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luka Mikrut

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.40

Win

Carabelli (ranked 96) is 34-19 on clay this season, the 25yo Italian mainly plays at Challenger level but he's one of the best - certainly on clay - in that sphere, with 7 Finals appearances (all clay) in teh past 12 months (3-4). He's 45-18 on the dirt in the last 12 months vs players ranked 150+. Mikrut (ranked 353) gets a WC into his home event, the 20yo Croatian generally plays at a level below even Challengers and is yet to face a top 100 player in his short career. This will be his first ever main ATP tour level match. He's 3-4 in his last 7 matches, with defeats to players ranked #495, #376,#466 and #295.

19:30 Alex Michelsen vs Marcos Giron

Alex Michelsen

Win Match

70 WIN

@1.73

Lose

-70

Michelsen (ranked 61) lost in this very match last year to Mannarino in what was a breakthrough event for the 19yo American. He's learnt a lot on the main ATP tour the past 12 months and here this year he's winning 77% of first serve points and has saved all 6 of BPs faced in his 3 matches to remain unbroken. His 30yo compatriot Giron (ranked 46) has had a really good grass court summer, going 8-4 on turf with no shame in defeats to world #4 Zverev (Wimbledon), #9 Hurkacz (Halle) and eventual winner Draper in Stuttgart. Giron is winning 75% first serve points here but has been broken and ultimately I think it's that dependability on delivery that will help Michelsen take his maiden ATP title.

Over 22.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.85

Win

On the low-bouncing, slick Newport grass, this should be a serve-dominated affair. We have the number 2 and 3 seeds wach looking to win a first ATP singles title. Michelsen (ranked 61) lost in this very match last year to Mannarino in a breakthrough event for the 19yo American. This year he's winning 77% of first serve points here and saved all 6 of BPs faced in his 3 matches - so remains unbroken. His 30yo compatriot Giron (ranked 46) is winning 75% first serve points here but has had a really good grass court summer, going 8-4 on turf with no shame in defeats to world #4 Zverev (Wimbledon), #9 Hurkacz (Halle) and eventual winner Draper in Stuttgart. He's had arguably the tougher draw to get here and whilst Michelsen has been serving lights-out, he's just 3-8 in the past 12 months against top 50 players in best-of-3 set matches and thee two have never met before, so I'm expecting a bit of a tight one.

Marcos Giron 1.50

Games Won

57 WIN

@1.85

Win

On the low-bouncing, slick Newport grass, this should be a serve-dominated affair. We have the number 2 and 3 seeds wach looking to win a first ATP singles title. Michelsen (ranked 61) lost in this very match last year to Mannarino in a breakthrough event for the 19yo American. This year he's winning 77% of first serve points here and saved all 6 of BPs faced in his 3 matches - so remains unbroken. His 30yo compatriot Giron (ranked 46) is winning 75% first serve points here but has had a really good grass court summer, going 8-4 on turf with no shame in defeats to world #4 Zverev (Wimbledon), #9 Hurkacz (Halle) and eventual winner Draper in Stuttgart. He's had arguably the tougher draw to get here and whilst Michelsen has been serving lights-out, he's just 3-8 in the past 12 months against top 50 players in best-of-3 set matches. This could easily be decided by 2 or 3 TBs so I'll take the head start.

17:30 Alexandre Muller vs Matteo Arnaldi

Matteo Arnaldi

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.50

Lose

-50

Arnaldi (ranked 39) made the SFs here at Umag last year, in what was a breakthrough wvent for the 23yo Italian. He will, as last year, get plenty of support from a Umag crowd full of his compatriots. He's won his last 18 matches on the dirt vs players ranked 100+ and beat Muller (ranked 103) convincingly in straight sets at this years French Open. The 27yo Frenchman has just made the final of a clay-court Challenger event on home soil but he's 9-14 on clay since 2022 vs top 100 ranked players.

15:45 3:45 Curragh

Dagoda

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

Four places to play with here so Jennifer Lynch’s 6yo Starspangledbanner mare is a value choice, given she caught the eye on her previous run, having to be switched at a crucial time while making her challenge over this C&D. She eventually finished a never nearer fourth but could have gone close with a clear run. Nevertheless it was another bold effort at Irish flat headquarters for a mare who is finding her best form at six. As mentioned, the Curragh is her track - since finishing second in the maiden on this card 12 months ago, her form here reads 8117344. A mark of 80 is very workable and she handles any type of ground.

15:15 3:15 Curragh

Mountain Bear

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-50

This is the best 7f race in the Irish calendar and is often won by a specialist at the distance, Order Of Australia winning the last two renewals and I think Mountain Bear could be a 7f specialist. He was reportedly only just ready to start when he made his comeback in the Irish Guineas, so his finishing position there was no disgrace, and he jumped forward from that effort when fourth in an above average renewal of the Jersey Stakes, getting much closer to Haatem than he did at the Curragh. That form line looks strong now, considering what Rosallion did at Ascot, and Mountain Bear himself has the potential to jump forward again. He was a colt who thrived on his racing last term and is the one to beat for me here.

14:10 2:10 Curragh

Babouche

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.63 used instead of 2.50 takenBOG

@2.63

Win

Ger Lyons' Juddmonte-owned Kodiac filly was seriously impressive on debut, racing on the far side contingent of two groups at Cork, coming 9 lengths clear of the group she was in and 5 lengths clear of the near side, marking her down as a very talented filly. The pre-race betting told you that was already the case for those who know her best and while she takes a significant setp up in class here, she will meet the main dangers both off the back of disappointing runs at Ascot and with a little bit to prove. She also has to prove it herself, but so impressive was the manner of her opening performance, it would be no surprise if she stayed unbeaten.

Cowardofthecounty

Daily Racing

25 EW

@4.00

Lose

-50

Clearly not an each way price but my selection for the forecast here, Joseph O'Brien's Kodi Bear colt made a taking debut when comfortably beating subsequent winner and current Norfolk Stakes favourite Whistlejacket in an 11-runner maiden at the Curragh 3 months ago. Although finishing 7th he wasn't beaten far in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot (6f, good to firm) since and remains with potential.

13:00 Nuno Borges vs Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal

Win Match

75 WIN

@1.40

Lose

-75

The "King of clay" is clearly not back to his best, but he has shown he's good enough to beat some decent (but note, not great!) opponents here in Bastad this week - two of them top 50 opponents. He's dug in and produced when needed to make this final and that speaks of his character and experience but the fact he's taken 3 sets to beat players ranked 36 and 130 speaks volumes. But a sub-optinal REafa should still win this against Borges, who's 0-8 vs top 10 ranked opponents in his career, all surfaces.

Over 22.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@2.10

Lose

-50

At odds against I have to take a shot at teh Overs here because he "King of clay" is clearly not back to his best, and whilst he's shown he's good enough to beat some decent (but note, not great!) opponents here in Bastad this week (two top-50 players) the 38yo Spaniard has had to dig in to make this final. Whilst that just showcases his character and experience, the fact he's taken 3 sets to beat players ranked 36 and 130 on clay speaks volumes. Borges is 0-8 vs top 10 ranked opponents in his career, all surfaces, but the 27yo Portuguese is in great form thsi season and this is his 4th final in the past 12 months, incl. a win over a resurgent Berrettini on hard courts in Phoenix in March. He's dropped just 1 set here and will be a tough nut to crack.

Nuno Borges 3.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@1.91

Win

As per my Games Total tip (see separate write up) I do think Rafa wins here but it won't be easy and the "King of Clay" has not beaten this spread on his last 2 matches here (vs opponents ranked #36 and #130. Borges (ranked 51) is having a good season and shouldn't be fazed by this match up (and he has a decent record vs Lefties on clay).

20 July 2024

15:40 3:40 Curragh

Port Fairy

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.50

Lose

-50

Given we have four places on offer here I'll go with the O'Brien "second string" but this daughter of Australia has improved a chunk with each of her four runs and I think she can follow up her Ribblesdale victory and gain her biggest success yet.

15:05 3:05 Curragh

Beautiful Diamond

Daily Racing

25 EW

@6.50

Win

Karl Burke's useful 3yo daughter of Twilight Son gained a second 5f listed success at Ayr when dead heating with Azure Blue 4 weeks ago. The stable won this with Havana Grey in 2018 and she also gets weight all round as a 3yo.

Believing

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.38

Win

George Boughey's Group 3 and three-time Listed winner ran two fine races within five days in Group 1 company at Royal Ascot and the form of her Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes fourth was boosted in the July Cup. She had the re-opposing Makarova over two lengths behind over this trip earlier that week and looks to be the one to beat here with Ryan Moore aboard.

14:50 2:50 Cartmel

Dr Sanderson

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.25

Lose

-50

Ben Haslam has shown a liking for this venue in recent seasons, especially with horses that run in the colours of JP McManus. This 10yo son of Jeremy is now rated 100 over fences, having been as high as 139 at his peak, and having win a shade cosily LTO in a better race over C&D 20 days ago, he's still on a good mark despite going up 9 lb an dropped in class he can go well again. Kicksaftersix if the two were to meet in Saturday’s race

Kicksaftersix

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 9.50 used instead of 8.50 takenBOG

@9.50

Win

Not the most prolific of horses but Martin Todhunter's 8yo opened his account over fences in a handicap chase at Hexham last summer and clearly likes the suin on his back. If I'm reading his racecards right I think this has been the target for a while. He ran a good second over this C&D last May off a mark of 79 before winning that Hexham heat and ran respectably twice more at the course off 6 pounds higher, especially on his first run after when chasing home Jaimie Snowden's Guinness Affair, who won his next 3 starts! Returned in May after his winter break for a pipe-opener at Sedgefield before an encouraging third of 10 off 81 at Hexham then stepped up to 2m 5f for a Class 5 here but connections did express misgivings about the trip which were duly justified. Poised to challenge before weakening from the home turn, but this extended 2m 1f should be within his range and provided the forecast showers don’t get too far into the ground I feel he can go close.

14:35 2:35 Curragh

Heavenly Power

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.00

Lose

-50

Hardly the most original tipping here as I'm picking the top 2 in thw market but I’ve long fancied that there's a good handicap in Eddie Lynam's gelding and this could be the day. His three runs this term have seen steady progression, culminating in a short margin defeat to Apricot Ice here on Irish Derby weekend. There was a lot to like that day, notably how he stayed on strongly inside the final furlong which bodes well for this trip - a unique 6 ½ furlongs - and there was no disgrace in finishing second to the unexposed, well-handicapped, Ger Lyons-trained filly. His trainer needs no introduction when it comes to handling sprinters, particularly given what he's achieved with the same owner’s namesake horses (Sole Power and Slade Power).

Mr Wagyu

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-50

With a win and 2 places over this C&D (incl. this race 2 years ago), John Quinn's 9yo Choisir gelding has alot going for him apart from recent victories as it's now 24 runs since last win in 2022. He was a very good second of 6 in a handicap at Epsom (6f, good) 17 days ago but we know he likes it here.

10:00 Jan Lennard Struff vs Quentin Halys

Jan Lennard Struff

Win Match

70 WIN

@1.33

Lose

-70

Although I feel that this match will be a serve-fest and closer than the bookies anticipate (see separate Games Won and Games Total tips) ultimately I believe that Struff (ranked 37) and his greater experience will triumph. The 6ft 4" 34yo German is 46-23 on clay since 2021 but 16-6 in that span vs opponents ranked 100+. Halys (ranked 192) is 3-5 on clay since 2020 vs top 100 opposition and whilst the 27yo Frenchman will be a tough opponent, Struff is at the top of his game right now.

Over 22.50

Total Games

54 WIN

@1.73

Lose

-54

I'm amazed this line is so low. There's already been 24 TB sets and seven 7-5 sets in the 24 completed matches (as I type) here in Gstaad, where the weather has been sunny and they play at 1000m altitude, which make conditions quick for clay. Struff (ranked 37) alone has played 4 TB and one 7-5 set in his 3 matches (7 sets). The 34yo 6ft 4" German serves big (he's saved 10 of 12 BPs faced and won an average 82% of first serve points) but converting just 3 of 11 BPs on opponents delivery. Halys (ranked 192) has come through Qualies here but in his 3 main draw matches he's saved 7 of 9 BPs faced and won 85% of first serve points. This has TBs and Overs written all over it.

Quentin Halys 3.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@1.73

Win

Given that I feel this match will be a serve-domiated affair (see separate Games Total tip) and that Halys (ranked 192) has been serving superbly here in Gstaad, I'll take this big a head start. Struff (ranked 37) has also served well but the 34yo 6ft 4" German has struggled to return and he's not beaten this spread in his first 3 matches here.

18 July 2024

19:30 Reilly Opelka vs Mackenzie McDonald

Over 23.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@2.05

Win

Opelka gets in here as a WC as the 26yo American (a former top 20 player just 2 years ago) hasn’t really been seen since losing to Kyrgios at Wimbledon in 2022. He’s won a tough couple pf matches here vs Lestienne and Mannarino on his comeback but gets a lot of home support. The big serve is still there (he's 6ft11" tall!) and he’s won about 90% of first serve points in those 2 wins. McDonald (ranked 99) has had a dire 2024 till now but the 29yo American - in recovery-mode from illness - is just starting to fire on grass, a surface he's had success (SFs in Eastbourne last year). McDonald served pretty well vs Hijikata in R1, and won 93% of first serve point LTO vs Harris (didn’t face a single BP). On the low-bouncing, slick Newport grass, this should be a serve-dominated affair so I like Overs.

16:30 Felix Auger Aliassime vs Yannick Hanfmann

Over 22.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@2.05

Lose

-50

At odds against and with the quick conditions here in Gstaad - at over 1000m of altitude and the weather has been glorious (balls fly faster) - it's been a serve-dominated affair. In the 16 matches at time of writing, we've seen 75% of them feature at least 1 TB and a total of 18 TBs in all (and five 7-5 sets). The layers clearly don't rate Hanfmann (ranked 111) but the 32yo German excels at events on clay at altiude, as here, having done well at events liek Santiago and Madrid in the past. He won 86% of first serve points vs Moreno De Alboran (and saved the 2 BPs he faced) in R1 and we know that Auger Aliassime (ranked 18) doesn't have the best return game. For example, vs Koepfer in Halle (Grass) recently he didn't create any BPs and in Madird (clay at altitude) vs a pretty weak server in Nishioka he converted just 3 of 10 BP chances.

15:00 Chloe Paquet vs Maria Lourdes Carle

Maria Lourdes Carle

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.44

Lose

-50

Tw players who both perform better on clay but Carle (ranked 93) just performs the better of the two. The 24yo Argentine is 20-7 on the red-stuff this year, 38-18 in the past 12 months (32-12 vs opponents ranked 100+ and 8-5 at main WTA tour level in that span). She beat Paquet (ranked 115) in their only prior H2H earlier this season on outdoor hard (a surface neither favours) in Puerto Vallarta, in straight sets. Paquet is 23-17 on clay in the past 12 monts, but the 30yo Frenchwoman is 4-5 vs top 100 opponents in that span.

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