ARQ007

Travelled Man of Kent. Likes: cars, sport, eating out, working out, conversation, travel, gambling, short-sleeve shirts. All teeth my own.

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ARQ007's Tips History

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21 June 2025
14:03 2:03 Newmarket

Youarenotforgiven

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Bit of a punt here but, Tony Carroll doesn't send many horses to HQ and this 7yo Starspangledbanner gelding is now 3 pounds below his LWM, has a 7 pound claimer aboard and drops in class here. Surely worth a go at double figure odds.
19 June 2025
16:00 Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik

Over 21.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.80

Win

40

This is a repeat of the 2023 QF here in Halle in which Bublik (ranked 45) led by a set and a break before now world #1 Sinner retired with a leg injury. A slick, quick, grass court like this one is where the 28yo Kazakh usually excels. Bublik has an 88% win rate here, a service/return points won total of 111, 91% service holds and 85% first serve points won. Sinner’s stats are 89% win rate, service/return points won total of 108, 95% holds, 81% first serve points won. In that aborted clash Bublik held serve 86% and was on fire again on serve in R1 LTO, holding 100% of the time, winning 89% first serve points, 12 aces and no BPs faced. Bublik’s unorthodox game will deprive Sinner of rhythm and while Sinner is more comfortable at the net now, he’s not a natural there - Bublik will look to bring him off the baseline/out of his comfort zone with dropshots and short slices. Having made the last 8 at the French Open Bublik’s game is in good order and he clearly loves playing here. I think he makes this a test.
11:00 Leylah Fernandez vs Cristina Bucsa

Leylah Fernandez

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.33

Win

17

Fernandez (ranked 30) has a decent game for grass, the 22yo Canadian made the QFs in Birmingham and teh Final at Eastbourne last year. She has a 2-0 H2H record over Bucsa (ranked 107), who does not have a great game for grass, she relies on consistency and mistakes from her opponent. The 27yo Spaniard is 4-2 on grass this term but the form of her wins is not great and she is 4-9 in her career on turf vs top 100 ranked opponents.
10:30 Felix Auger Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov

Felix Auger Aliassime

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

Auger-Aliassime (ranked 27) has a decent record here in Halle, the 24yo Canadian is 6-2 with the losses both excusable. He got 2 good wins in Stuttgart last week and it was a tight loss in the SF there to eventual winner Fritz., plus he started here this week with a gtood win over a tricky opponent (FTO on grass this season for FAA). He has a 2-1 H2H with Khachanov (ranked 21) and I'm just not convinced by the yo Russian on the turf. He's just 3-4 on grass vs top 50 opponents since 2020 and one of those wins was here yesterday against a likely very fatigued Bergs, who'd just had a pretty tough tournament (he made the final) in Rosmalen.
18 June 2025
10:30 Quentin Halys vs Daniil Medvedev

Quentin Halys 2.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@2.25

Lose

-50

At Odds Against, I'll take a shot at Halys (ranked 48) getting a head start in a match where service breaks should be few. Halys is a decent player on grass, the 28yo Frenchman has some weapons especially his big serve (he hit 18 aces and won 90% of his first serve points on Monday against Bonzi). And Medvedev (ranked 11) is in poor form and has a rather awful recent record against big servers - on grass he’s 0-4 against them, latterly his capitulation last week to Opelka in Rosmalen when he handed the match to Opelka with DFs. In all Medvedev has lost 6 of his last 9 matches against big servers. It’s not easy to play the way Medvedev does on quick grass and he was beaten here last year by Zhizhen Zhang, so Halys should fancy this and looks value.
17 June 2025
15:00 Jordan Thompson vs Jaume Munar

Jordan Thompson

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.38

Void

0

Although he's not been in great form of late, I really sould expect Thompson (ranked 37) to win here. The 31yo Aussie loves grass and his loss LTO in Hertogenbosch to eventual winner Diallo doesn't look so bad now. He's 17-10 on grass since 2023, 13-4 in that span vs opponents ranked 50+. Munar (ranked 59) is a confirmed clay-courter, the 28yo Spaniard is just 3-13 in his career on turf.
13:30 Felix Auger Aliassime vs Laslo Djere

Felix Auger Aliassime

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.33

Win

17

Auger-Aliassime (ranked 27) has a decent record here in Halle, the 24yo Canadian is 5-2 with the losses both excusable. He got 2 good wins in Stuttgart last week and it was a tight loss in the SF there to eventual winner Fritz. Djere (ranked 65) is not great on grass, the 30yo Serbian much prefers clay and he's just 6-6 on turf since 2023. He has won 2 Qualies matches here but I just feel Auger-Aliassime will have too much in these fast conditons.
12:00 Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex Michelsen

Alex Michelsen

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.91

Win

46

Cerundolo (ranked 18) won a grass title at Eastbourne in 2023, but was rather fortunate to win that and his grass stats are some way inferior to those of Michelsen (ranked 33). Cerundolo didn't win a match on grass last year and his main level service/return points won total on turf is just 97, with a win rate of 47%. Michelsen's service/return points won total on grass is 102 with a win rate of 56%. The 20yo American's game is naturally more suited to grass and in very quick conditions in Halle he can take time off Cerundolo, who hasn't played since a shock R1 loss in Paris to Diallo. Michelsen played a couple of matches in Stuttgart last week and made the doubles final. so he should be more attuned to the conditions and we'll see how motivated Cerundolo is for this grass swing having played a ton of tennis this year, so he may well be less than committed for this few weeks before heading back to the clay after Wimbledon.
12:00 Ugo Humbert vs Denis Shapovalov

Denis Shapovalov 1.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@1.95

Win

47

Humbert (ranked 20) still looks to be struggling physically - the 26yo Frenchman was flat out on the turf having treatment for a back issue LTO and wasn't moving well in the latter stages. He also has a worse record against fellow lefties, like Shapovalov (ranked 31), at main level (50% win rate versus 54% against righties). And on grass vs lefties he's suffered some bad losses - Peniston, Monteiro and Mannarino have beaten Humbert on turf (his only wins on grass against lefties came against clay dog Delbonis and lowly-ranked Gijs Brouwer). The H2H with Shapovalov favours the 26yo Canadian leads the service/return points won totals of their series by 101.4 to 98.6 and he's won 3 of their 5 clashes. Shapo's wins all came on clay, but we know Humbert has struggled on grass vs lefties. "Shapo" should be desperate to make up for what was a weak performance LTO vs Rinderknech in Stuttgart and this looks a decent chance to do just that.
11 June 2025
13:30 Hanne Vandewinkel vs Oksana Selekhmeteva

Oksana Selekhmeteva

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.45

Lose

-50

You'd really expect Selekhmeteva (ranked 146) to win this one, not only because the 22-year-old Russian is ranked 39 places higher than opponent Vandewinkel (#185) but because she's vastly more experienced at a higher level than her 21-year-old Belgian opponent. She's 25-9 on clay in the past 12 months at recognized levels, 8-3 at main WTA level. Vandewinkel has played just 2 WTA level matches her whole career (1-1, the win LTO here vs #218 ranked Boskovic).
11:30 Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hubert Hurkacz

Over 23.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.95

Lose

-50

Hurkacz (ranked 32) has been good to me over the years. The 28-year-old is a big server, which is even more effective on grass. But early in the season, the surface has caused issues for the 6ft 5" Pole so far. Hurkacz has never won his opening match of the grass swing in under 25 games, and he’s likely to meet stern resistance from Bautista Agut (ranked 50), who’s very capable on grass. RBA has a better career record on grass in terms of their level stats on the surface. Hurkacz only wins 33% of return points on grass, leading to a lot of tie-breaks and long matches. Their career head-to-head has been tightly contested, with Hurkacz only beating RBA comfortably once in 6 career clashes. Both men win only 34.5% of return points in this series, and they’ve played a big 0.47 tie-breaks per set. RBA has been playing well on unsuitably slow clay lately, making the quarterfinals in really slow conditions in Hamburg. This should be close, and I like Over here.
09 June 2025
17:03 5:03 Brighton

Falmouth Boy

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

Tony Barron's 4yo gelding is not an obvious selection. This son of Kodiac is a 12-race maiden who beat just five rivals home in his last five starts, so doesn't spring to mind as a horse to follow. But, he's shown some flashes of ability, mainly on the strength of an eye-catching run in a 6f nursery at Southwell in December 2023. Despite going close a couple of times, he generally disappointed, and eight runs later he dropped to a rating of 46. Now down a further 2lbs to 44, I am pleased to see this run is over 7 furlongs as I believe it will suit him better than six. Tony Carroll does well with horses returning from a break and at this track. I hope there may have been a few tweaks since he was last seen. Taking a shot at a big price in what is a weak race.
07 June 2025
15:55 3:55 Navan

Red Letter

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@1.50

Lose

-50

Ger Lyons' 3yo daughter of Frankel ran to form when beaten 3 lengths in the 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) at Newmarket last time out. That run sets a very high standard here and she should come on for the run. The one to beat.
14:45 2:45 Epsom Downs

Jer Batt

Daily Racing

25 EW

@5.00

Lose

-50

Tony Barron's 5yo gelding is very interesting on several pieces of form, notably a sound reappearance third at Musselburgh in April. The booking of Oisin Murphy here takes the eye, and this one is high on the list.
06 June 2025
14:40 2:40 Epsom Downs

Calandagan

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

The French challenger here is a worthy favorite, as his second place at Meydan bears the closest inspection and is almost certainly the best form on offer in this race, that among several top-class performances last season. This 4yo son of Gleneagles is no stranger to these shores and will benefit from Barzalona's expertise.
05 June 2025
17:55 5:55 Leopardstown

Green Impact

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.38 used instead of 2.10 takenBOG

@2.38

Win

68

Jessie Harrington's 3yo Wootton Bassett colt likely needed the run when beaten 7 lengths in the 2000 Guineas (Group 1) over 8f at Newmarket last time out. Had been in good form prior to that, and the form of his juvenile win has been franked emphatically. Has run well here; step up in trip should be fine.
1 member found this comment useful
01 June 2025
18:45 6:45 Chelmsford City

Glam Squad

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Lose

-50

Charlie Fellowes' 4yo son of Phoenix Of Spain is a pretty consistent performer at this level, and he likely needed the run LTO on seasonal bow (having had to take a wide trip) LTO when beaten 5 lengths in a handicap at Kempton 17 days ago. Should come on for that run and significant jockey booking with the in-form Saffie Osborne. Decent price and 5 places on offer.
31 May 2025
15:00 Cameron Norrie vs Jacob Fearnley

Cameron Norrie

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.75

Win

38

Norrie (ranked 81) enjoy a physical test and loves a long battle in slow conditions. I’m happy to back former Brit #1 Norrie as he'll know Fearnley (ranked 55) well from the UK scene and Davis Cup. There are few better at neutralising a player’s strengths than the 29yo Brit, who’ll be relentless in pinning his 23yo compatriot to his weaker backhand. He showed how it’s done last week in Geneva against a similar opponent in Popyrin, grinding the Aussie down. Norrie’s confidence is high after really testing Djokovic in Geneva then finally beating his nemesis Medvedev here in Paris. There’s little to choose between this pair in their last 10 matches each on clay at main level, but Fearnley relies heavily on first serve, winning only 46% on second serve. He’s still inexperienced both on clay and over best-of-five, never having gone past 4 sets in his career. I’ll be impressed if he's able to beat Norrie in a long four or five set match on clay, with Norrie likely relishing this opportunity to showcase his unattractive but effective play style. Fearnley will need to play a very clean match to win this one.
12:30 Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli

Over 35.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

I just can't see either of these players winning this in straight sets, and with this number, the bookies have given us a shot at going over with a 3-1 set scoreline. World #3 Zverev is, of course, last year's losing finalist, but in his 5 matches last year from R3 onwards (so against the better players in the event), including the final, the 28-year-old German lost at least 1 set. The exception was against a seemingly lost-for-ideas De Minaur. Cobolli (ranked 26) is in superb form at present. The 23-year-old Italian won the event in Hamburg last week and beat compatriot Arnaldi LTO in a solid win. Since last season, he's 3-4 on clay vs. top 20 players, and I reckon he has a set in him. The worry is fatigue given the amount of tennis he's played, but I'll take the shot.
1 member found this comment useful
12:30 Manon Leonard vs Harmony Tan

Harmony Tan

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.30

Win

15

Skinny odds here as world #253 Tan takes on a player ranked 70 odd places above her in Leonard (ranked 178). But Tan has a decent career record on grass and is 13-5 on turf vs players ranked 100+. The 27-year-old French player made the semifinals in Surbiton last year, from qualifiers, only losing to grass-specialist Van Uytvanck. As far as I can see, her 24-year-old compatriot Manon has never played on grass at any sort of level. Tan was rated top 100 just 3 years ago, and I feel she's the bet here.
1 member found this comment useful
30 May 2025
01:00 IND Pacers @ NY Knicks

Under 223.50

Game Totals

50 WIN

@1.91

Win

46

As this game is in New York, and the Knicks know they cannot win a high-scoring game, I fully expect this to be a half-court game. The only game the Knicks have been able to win in this series was one that landed 206. There were 71 free throws attempted in the last game, and I don't expect anywhere near that tonight. Both teams shot over 40% from behind the arc, and I also don't expect that to happen in back-to-back games. After a high-scoring first game, the second game landed 223, and that was game two in New York, so I expect this one to play out like that one.
29 May 2025
15:00 Jacob Fearnley vs Ugo Humbert

Jacob Fearnley

Win Match

50 WIN

@2.20

Void

0

I have to fade Humbert (ranked 21) here, and not just because the Frenchman has never gone past the second round in his home Slam. He's also been playing with a fracture in his right wrist lately, and recent matches have seen the 26-year-old lefty with heavy strapping on his right hand/lower arm. His recent form, just 3 wins in his last 10, his win over a terrible O'Connell in R1 here more a reflection on his struggling opponent. This looks like an opportunity for Fearnley (ranked 55) as Humbert is just 4-10 on clay since 2023 vs top 50 opposition. And the 23-year-old Brit is in very good form, 9-5 on the clay in 2023 (Humbert is 2-4), and he dispatched Stan Wawrinka with ease in R1. He's also used to playing against hostile crowds, having beaten Fognini in Rome earlier this month.
1 member found this comment useful
12:30 Jannik Sinner vs Richard Gasquet

Jannik Sinner to win 3 - 0

Set Betting

58 WIN

@1.28

Win

16

It's a "last dance" for 38-year-old Frenchman Gasquet, and credit to him for getting past R1 here at Roland Garros. But I can't see him making it any further. With world #1 Sinner looking like he's raring to go after his "enforced break," with only world #12 Paul and #2 Alcaraz taking sets off him, this should be a straightforward win.
28 May 2025
20:22 8:22 Kempton

Arqoob

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

At double figure price with an extra place on offer I'll take a shot at Lucy Wadham's 7yo Estidhkaar gelding, who won over C&D on his penultimate start in March off a mark of 87 (he's on 89 here). He was beaten by a nose on that same mark earlier in March over C&D so I think he's in with a shout here.
14:30 Caroline Dolehide vs Jelena Ostapenko

Jelena Ostapenko

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.30

Win

15

It's rarely a straightforward matter when you back Ostapenko (ranked 21) as the diminutive, but fiery, 27-year-old Latvian frequently blows hot-and-cold in a match (often in the same game!). And the champion here at Roland Garros in 2017 has not since then had a long run in this event. That said, she took the title on clay in Stuttgart last month and came through a testing R1 match to attain an 8-3 record on the dirt this year. And Dolehide (ranked 67) doesn't have a great record on the red-stuff. The 26-year-old American is just 7-5 this year and 3-10 on clay in her career vs top 50 opponents (she's 0-8 vs top 20 players).
14:30 Emma Raducanu vs Iga Swiatek

Emma Raducanu 6.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

Risky one here as 4-times champ here, Swiatek can just take the wheels out from under opponents, as she did with Raducanu (ranked 41) at the Aussie Open in January, winning 6-1, 6-0. However, prior to that, Raducanu had given the 23-year-old Pole a decent test, including twice on clay. In R1, Sramkova beat this number and gave a template for testing Swiatek by hitting fast and free. If the 22-year-old Brit stays loose and goes for her shots, I think she can keep it tight, especially as Swiatek has not looked the dominant force of previous years lately.
27 May 2025
10:00 Alex De Minaur vs Laslo Djere

Over 35.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

Djere (ranked 59) has the clay smarts to at least test world #9 De Minaur in slow conditions. It’s set to be slow for the first few days in Paris, and Djere was able to compete with ADM on both occasions that they met on grass previously. Djere lost both matches but took a set in each, and here they meet on his favored clay, where he has a great record this season (17-5). ADM tends to beat the players he should on clay, but he's 0-8 vs the current top 10, whilst Djere is 3-7 in such matches. I think he'll make this a test.

Laslo Djere 5.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-50

Djere (ranked 59) has the clay smarts to at least test world #9 De Minaur in slow conditions. It’s set to be slow for the first few days in Paris, and Djere was able to compete with ADM on both occasions that they met on grass previously. Djere lost both matches but took a set in each, and here they meet on his favored clay, where he has a great record this season (17-5). ADM tends to beat the players he should on clay, but he's 0-8 vs. the current top 10, whilst Djere is 3-7 in such matches. I think he can at least keep this close.
20 May 2025
15:00 Antoine Escoffier vs Otto Virtanen

Otto Virtanen

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.22

Win

11

It is unfortunate for Escoffier (ranked 218) that the 33-year-old Frenchman’s home Slam is played on clay, as he has a terrible record on the dirt, finding his success on hard courts and at a typically much lower level. He’s 1-3 on clay at a recognized level since January 2023, the sole win against an opponent ranked #374. Virtanen (ranked 114) won their only prior head-to-head match??"also in the Qualifiers for Roland Garros??"in straight sets in 2023, and the 23-year-old Finn is in decent enough form to get the better of his opponent again here on a surface where he’s very comfortable.
11:00 Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Francisco Comesana

Francisco Comesana

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

Comesana (ranked 63) has been playing great tennis lately and looks a good price to beat an out-of-form Etcheverry (ranked 51). The 24-year-old Argentine has beaten some good players this season on clay - Zverev, Fils - and he’s some way ahead of his 25-year-old compatriot regarding main level results and stats. Etcheverry has struggled for the best part of a year now and in 2025 at main level on clay has a 39% win rate and a service/return points won total of 97. Comesana is some way ahead - a 60% win rate and a service/return points won total of 102. The gap in their respective levels right now can also be illustrated in their results against top-50 ranked opponents: Comesana has won 43% of such matches in the last year (40% on clay), Etcheverry has gone 6-16 (27% win rate) and on clay only he’s 1-6 (14% win rate). Etcheverry’s last win over a top-50 player was in January at the AO when he outlasted an injured Cobolli and last week he unsuccessfully dropped down to Challenger level, losing to Bublik, having edged past the world number 254 in 2 TBs.
1 member found this comment useful
19 May 2025
18:30 Marton Fucsovics vs Zizou Bergs

Marton Fucsovics

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.73

Win

37

I'll take a punt on Fucsovics here as the 33-year-old Hungarian is far better than his current ranking of 134 suggests (he's had a lot of injury issues) and likes the quick conditions that the 400m of altitude provides here in Geneva. Indeed, he's a former winner here (2018) and he's 8-6 on clay so far this term. Bergs (ranked 50) is in a bit of a flux - the 25-year-old Belgian has had a few injuries, has just split from his coach, and is just 2-3 on clay so far (one win vs a player ranked #374).
1 member found this comment useful
16:30 4:30 Carlisle

Comanche Warrior

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 11.00 used instead of 8.50 takenBOG

@11.00

Win

25

This unraced son of Dark Angel is trained by Richard Fahey, and cost a lot of money as a yearling. The key with this horse is to watch the betting, because if the money comes then get on! Can't do that here so tipped up in advance in the hope he's well prepped for his debut.
13:00 Jaume Munar vs Quentin Halys

Quentin Halys 1.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@2.10

Win

55

Know who leads the ATP Tour the last year regarding first serve points won? Hurkacz? Berrettini? No - at 79.9% (just ahead of world #1 Sinner on 79.6%), it's Halys (ranked 52) who's also third in terms of aces per game. The 28yo Frenchman showed his liking for altitude clay tennis last season when he made the final of Gstaad, and he’s only very narrowly behind Munar (ranked 66) in main level clay stats the last year. The 28yo Spaniard has struggled on clay lately. The vast majority of Halys’s matches were played at altitude, and he still wins 79% of his first serve points in the last year on this surface, so his first serve will still be hugely effective and key here. Halys held serve 100% of the time against Munar on indoor hard in their only senior level career meeting, Munar winning just 28% of return points. It’s hard to see Halys holding serve that often on clay, but the altitude gives him a chance here. Munar was lucky not to lose to Barrios Vera in Rome (the latter got cramp late on), lost in Madrid (altitude) in R1 to Bautista Agut, and Marrakech (altitude) to Majchrzak.

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