ARQ007
Travelled Man of Kent. Likes: cars, sport, eating out, working out, conversation, travel, gambling, short-sleeve shirts. All teeth my own.
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ARQ007's Tips History
All sports
16 January 2025
15:45 3:45 Wincanton
King Turgeon
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 5.50 used instead of 3.75 takenBOG
@5.50
Lose
-3
The Pipe team had a winner on Wednesday, and this is one of the most promising young chasers I have seen for a few years. Since he's had another breathing operation, it's taken his form to a new level this term. He completed his hat-trick nicely with a win in a 3m2f Cheltenham handicap last month, after a superb jumping display to bag the Grand Sefton at Aintree. He's raised 6 pounds but dropped in class here, and it's hard to imagine he's reached his ceiling yet.
09:30 Learner Tien vs Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.17
Lose
-50
Last year's losing finalist, world #5 Medvedev, rather labored in R1 here in Melbourne, but that was his first match of 2025. The 28-year-old Russian really should be beating Tien (ranked 128), who seems to be the flavor of the month at the moment. The 19-year-old American made the final of the Next Gen ATP Finals last December. But for me, his game is underpowered, and he struggles to generate offense in these faster conditions. He barely got by a clay court player in R1, needing five sets.
03:00 Corentin Moutet vs Mitchell Krueger
Mitchell Krueger 3.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
I'll take a shot at Krueger (ranked 146) getting the head start here as the 31-year-old American has the better stats on hard courts. And as for Moutet (ranked 69), well, the word mercurial could have been invented for him. The volatile and inconsistent 25-year-old Frenchman is a law unto himself - one minute playing superb tennis, the next feigning injury or arguing with the umpire and basically winding himself up. In their last 10 matches each at main level on outdoor hard, Krueger has a 103 service/return points won total and a hold/break total of 107, and a 50% win rate. For Moutet, that's just 96 and 92 with a 30% win rate.
03:00 Marcos Giron vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Marcos Giron
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
I like Giron (ranked 46) in his R2 clash with Etcheverry (ranked 38). The 31yo American leads the service/return points won totals by 102 to 100 and the hold/break totals by 103 to 101 plus has a better win rate (55% versus 48% on hard courts at main level the last year). Giron also has a better win rate against top-50 ranked opposition on hard: 37% compared to 32% and his better return game gives him the edge for me. Giron has a poor record at the AO, so he’ll be pleased to get a win here finally, and created a 23 BPs against big-serving Hanfmann in R1. I feel that Etcheverry was rather fortunate when in R1 he faced Cobolli who hasn’t been fit lately, so the form of that win is questionable. Giron also has a straight sets win over Etcheverry on hard to his name in their only career meeting.
01:30 Francisco Cerundolo vs Facundo Diaz Acosta
Francisco Cerundolo
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.40
Void
0
I’m opposing Diaz Acosta (ranked) here as the 24-year-old Argentine is, I believe, one of the lesser players on hard courts/quicker surfaces. He basically outlasted Bergs in their 5-set R1 match, Bergs choking away his 2 sets to 1 lead. Cerundolo (ranked 31) is physically fitter and proven more at the top end of the game than his compatriot, and the 28-year-old is 15-14 on hard courts in the past 12 months, whilst Diaz Acosta is just 5-12.
01:30 Gabriel Diallo vs Karen Khachanov
Karen Khachanov
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.33
Win
17
Khachanov (ranked 19) made the SFs here in Melbourne in 2023 and has a 17-6 record here in Melbourne since 2019. He's 13-0 vs players outside the top 50 in that span. The 28-year-old Russian has beaten Diallo (ranked 86) in both their prior H2Hs (both last year, both hard courts). The 23-year-old Canadian is 3-5 on hard courts vs top 50 players in the past 12 months. He was also on court for over 4 hours in R1, taking 5 sets to beat #83 ranked Nardi, while Khachanov took half that time to beat Mannarino in straights.
00:30 Rebecca Sramkova vs Iga Swiatek
Over 16.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.57
Lose
-50
I get it, former world #1 Swiatek is a demon, but the 23-year-old Pole is not necessarily at her best on hard courts, and she's thrown in some puzzling performances both here in Melbourne and at the US Open. And Sramkova (ranked 49) has been in good form since the midway of 2024. The 28-year-old Slovakian basically lifted her country to the BJK Cup Final. This is such a low number I have to go over.
Rebecca Sramkova 7.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.73
Lose
-50
We all know that world #2 Swiatek can blow away opponents, but the 23-year-old Pole is not necessarily at her best on hard courts, and she's thrown in some puzzling performances both here in Melbourne and at the US Open. And Sramkova (ranked 49) has been in good form since the midway of 2024. The 28-year-old Slovakian basically lifted her country to the BJK Cup Final. I feel these are just too many games to give away.
00:00 Emma Raducanu vs Amanda Anisimova
Emma Raducanu 2.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.90
Win
45
I'll take the head start for Raducanu (ranked 61) here as the 22-year-old Brit is in good form (6-1 in her last 7 going back to last season, the loss due to injury retirement) and she's 12-4 on hard courts in the past 12 months vs opponents ranked 20+. Like the former US Open champ, Anisimova (ranked 35) is a talented player who peaked young but has been affected by injury and has had patchy form on the tour since returning. The 23-year-old American retired from the QFs in Hobart prior to Melbourne and she's had a few of those lately.
00:00 Hubert Hurkacz vs Miomir Kecmanovic
Hubert Hurkacz
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.30
Lose
-50
World #17 Hurkacz seems to have gotten past the injury issues that affected the second half of his 2024 season. After a rough start to the United Cup warm-up event, he got 2 wins, then took a set off Fritz in the final, and dispatched Griekspoor here in R1 in straight sets. The tall Pole made the QFs here last year and really should beat Kecmanovic (ranked 51), who's 1-4 vs top 20 opponents in the past 12 months.
Subtotal-48
15 January 2025
13:25 1:25 Newbury
Jurancon
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@2.25
Win
62
David Pipe's 6yo gelding is a 2-time winner in bumpers who confirmed hurdles debut promise when opening his account in a 10-runner 2m maiden at Chepstow in November. He was only beaten by a promising Philip Hobbs youngster (under a penalty) at Exeter LTO and with a first-time tongue strap and step up in trip, looks to me to be the one to beat.
05:00 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Felix Auger Aliassime
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.33
Lose
-50
Although I do feel that this will be closer than the odds suggest (see my separate Games Won and games total tips), the fact is that Auger-Aliassime (ranked 23) has beaten Davidovich Fokina (ranked 66) in all of their 5 prior matches. FAA made the QFs here a couple of years ago, whilst ADF has never gotten past R2 before here in Melbourne.
Over 37.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
The ever-inconsistent Auger-Aliassime (ranked 23) has had the better of the career series vs. Davidovich Fokina (ranked 66), winning all 5 (1 was in juniors). But given that, it's perhaps a surprise that of the 13 sets these two have contested, only one ended in less than 10 games. FAA has held serve 94% of the time vs. ADF, who in turn has held 88% of the time (each man winning approximately 33% of return points). FAA has only won 2 of his last 13 matches in straight sets and continues to be hit and miss within his performances.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 5.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.83
Win
41
I think Auger-Aliassime (ranked 23) wins this match vs. Davidovich Fokina (ranked 66). But in the 5 matches and 13 sets these two have contested in their career, only one ended in less than 10 games. FAA has held serve 94% of the time vs. ADF, who in turn has held 88% of the time (each man winning approximately 33% of return points). FAA has only won 2 of his last 13 matches in straight sets, and it seems to be a big ask that he wins this one comfortably, especially when you consider that these two met here at this stage in 2022 in a match that finished in 4 TBs.
01:30 Benjamin Bonzi vs Francesco Passaro
Benjamin Bonzi
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.29
Win
14
Passaro (ranked 104) has been doubly lucky here at the Aussie Open in Melbourne. The 24-year-old Italian lost in Qualies but got back into the main draw as a lucky loser. Then his opponent in R1, world #10 Dimitrov, had to retire after just 1 set. Passaro is seen more often on clay courts where he's 35-19 in the past 12 months. On hard courts, he's just 7-6. Bonzi (ranked 64) is 44-19 on hard courts in the last 12 months and made 4 finals (a couple at Challenger level) at the tail end of last season, indoors (fast conditions).
01:30 Roberto Carballes Baena vs James Duckworth
Roberto Carballes Baena
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.67
Win
34
I can't see Duckworth (ranked 89) getting into R2 here as the 32-year-old Aussie faces an opponent likely to give a far more committed performance than that of Stricker in R1. Carballes Baena (ranked 57) is as tough as they come, and his recent hard court stats are significantly better than those of journeyman Duckworth. In the last 12 months on outdoor hard at main level, RCB has a service/return points won total of 100 and a 50% win rate compared to 97 and 22% for Duckworth. The Aussie also has just a 24% win rate in his career against opponents ranked between 50 and 70, whilst the 31-year-old Spaniard has a 56% win rate vs opponents ranked between 80 and 100. And Duckworth has a shocking record against better-ranked opponents in Slams, just one win in 18 matches against opponents ranked inside the top 60. RCB's had a decent start to the year, with wins over Cerundolo and Tabilo, and this is a match he should be winning.
01:10 NO Pelicans @ CHI Bulls
CHI Bulls
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
I'll take a chance on the Bulls (18-21, 8-12 at home) here at United Center as Chicago actually has the #4 ranked Offence and face the #25 ranked Defence of the Pelicans. The Bulls have won 5 of their last 8 games and face a New Orleans (8-32, 3-16 away) side that's 3-14 in their last 17 games.
00:10 CLE Cavaliers @ IND Pacers
IND Pacers 8.50
Pointspread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
I'll take a stab at the Pacers (22-18, 11-6 at home) here at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Indiana have won each of their last three home games and they're 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games. This is the fifth time in 2024-25 that they're underdogs on their own court (they're 3-2 under those circumstances). Their ongoing six-game winning streak is currently the second-longest in the NBA. Cleveland (33-5, 13-3 away) are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games against Indiana and lost 108-93 to the Pacers in Cleveland just 2 days ago. I'm sure revenge will be on their mind, but I think this is too many points to concede.
00:10 OKC Thunder @ PHI 76ers
OKC Thunder
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.12
Win
6
The 76ers (15-22, 6-11 at home) are 2-5 in their last 7 games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home. Oklahoma City (32-6, 15-4 away) are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games. The Thunder have a historically elite defense this season, and face a #26 ranked Philly Offence. It’s difficult to see a path to offensive success for the 76ers in this game, particularly with Joel Embiid sidelined with a foot injury.
Subtotal57
14 January 2025
13:10 1:10 Plumpton
Jurancon
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@1.62
Void
0
David Pipe's 6yo gelding is a 2-time winner in bumpers who confirmed hurdles debut promise when opening his account in a 10-runner 2m maiden at Chepstow in November. He was only beaten by a promising Philip Hobbs youngster (under a penalty) at Exeter LTO and with a first-time tongue strap and step up in trip, looks to me to be the one to beat.
04:30 Rebecca Marino vs Katie Boulter
Katie Boulter
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.20
Win
10
Boulter (ranked 25) excels in faster conditions, and the 28-year-old Brit has improved her overall game no end in the last 24 months. She took a set off world #2 Swiatek at the United Cup as a warm-up event to the AO. The Brit #1 is 25-14 on hard courts in the last 12 months, 15-4 vs. players ranked 50+. Marino (ranked 98) has generally been playing at lower-level events the last few years, and whilst the 34-year-old Canadian is 46-19 on hard courts in the past 12 months, she's just 4-5 in that span vs. top 100 opponents (1-2 vs. top 50 players).
03:00 Francisco Comesana vs Daniel Altmaier
Francisco Comesana
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Two players who are best seen on clay courts are facing one another in fast conditions. But Comesana (ranked 85) showed last season that he raises his level for the majors, and I like these odds vs. Altmaier (ranked 101). The 24-year-old Argentine went 4-2 on hard court and grass majors in 2024 with a service/return points won total of 99, and that against opponents like Humbert, Fritz, Musetti, and Rublev. Any repeat of that sort of level should be too much for Altmaier, whose career record in majors away from clay is poor. The 26-year-old German is 2-9 at hard and grass majors and has a service/return points won total of just 95. Comesana also leads the service/return points won totals away from clay in the last 12 months at the main level (just!) by 98 to 97, and he has a much better win rate of 50% compared to Altmaier’s 35%.
02:00 Irina Camelia Begu vs Elena Gabriela Ruse
Elena Gabriela Ruse
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
I'll take Ruse (ranked 125) in this all-Romanian clash as the 27-year-old has just shown herself to be more at home on hard courts/faster conditions. Her 34-year-old compatriot, Begu, plays almost exclusively on clay these days (she won a minor event in Colombia in November) and is just 2-3 on hard courts since Jan 2024. Ruse is 17-9 on hard courts in the past 12 months, 16-7 vs players outside the top 50.
01:30 Hubert Hurkacz vs Tallon Griekspoor
Over 42.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
This is a very big number, but I'm going over here because of this matchup. This match could easily be decided in 3 or more tiebreaks, and I'm hoping it's split across these two opponents. I've written many times (including on my games won bet here) about how world #17 Hurkacz isn't the strongest returner at the best of times, and he's not been at his "peak" since the injury he suffered at SW19 (which recurred in Cincinnati) last year. Given his own huge serve, he thus tends to play long matches. There are fast conditions here in Melbourne, and he faces an opponent with an equally strong serve. Griekspoor (ranked 40) has the game to bother the big names, and in his 4 prior head-to-heads with his opponent, the 28-year-old Dutchman has played a total of 14 sets (only one match was at a Slam), of which 7 (50%!) were tiebreaks. And each match he's played vs. his 27-year-old Polish opponent has gone to a deciding set.
Tallon Griekspoor 3.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
I'll take a punt here in a match that could easily be decided in 3 (or more) Tie Breaks (TBs). World #17 Hurkacz has never been the strongest returner at the best of times, but he finished 2024 with 5 defeats in 6 matches, having returned from the injury he suffered at SW19 (and recurred in Cincinnati). As a result, because of his huge serve, he tends to play long matches. Here in fast conditions vs an opponent with a strong serve and attacking game, it's tough for me to believe this is as lopsided as these odds/spread suggest. Griekspoor (ranked 40) has the game to bother the big names. World #2 Zverev said post-match after Griekspoor gave him fits for the third time in 2024 that the 28-year-old Dutchman has all the tools to be a top-10 player. Big serve, big forehand, no fear, moves decently, and is willing to throw in the occasional approach. So with holds likely, Griekspoor should be able to stay close.
00:30 Zhizhen Zhang vs Holger Rune
Over 38.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
I'd rather have the 'Over 3.5 sets' line here, but this is the closest I can get on the site. The fact is, world #13 Rune is not seen at his best in very fast conditions, and he's just 3-6 in his career at Slams on hard courts vs top 100 opposition. Each player has won a set in 5 of those matches featuring the 21-year-old Dane. Zhang (ranked 49) has played pretty well in his few matches in Melbourne in his career, and I think he can cause Rune some problems. I'd be surprised if Rune wins this in straight sets.
00:00 Anna Bondar vs Yafan Wang
Anna Bondar
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
This would indeed be a 'pick 'em' type of match, but there are several factors weighing against Wang (ranked 64). First, the 30-year-old Chinese player has played just 3 matches since losing at last year's US Open, and she's lost 2 of those and retired in the other, vs. Kalinina in Brisbane, with what looked like a nasty wrist injury, and that was just 11 days ago. Bondar (ranked 92) played well to reach the QFs in Hobart and should take advantage here.
00:00 Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Emma Raducanu
Emma Raducanu
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.73
Win
37
My concern here is that Raducanu (ranked 61) has yet to play this season after pulling out of Auckland, but the 22-year-old Brit was in top form to end 2024, winning 5 of her last 6 matches (the "loss" due to another injury retirement). And whilst Alexandrova (ranked 31) is one of the biggest hitters on the women’s tour and should like conditions here in Melbourne, the 30-year-old Russian has a terrible record at the AO. She's 7-8 here in her career and despite having been a top 20 player she's never gotten past R3 here. In fact, in her career, at hard court Slams vs top 100 opponents she's just 8-12. Raducanu should also love conditions here and she seems to thrive when facing big hitters.
Subtotal-67
13 January 2025
14:38 2:38 Exeter
Illico De Cotte
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.75
Lose
-50
The Skelton's Irish point/maiden hurdle winner looked much-improved for the switch to fences when making a winning chase debut at Carlisle (3¼m, good to soft) in October. Ran to a similar level when third off a 7 lb higher mark back at the same course last month and he looks the pick here.
02:10 CHA Hornets @ PHX Suns
PHX Suns
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.36
Win
18
Phoenix (18-19) are just 4-8 in their last 12 games, but 3 of the Suns' last 5 defeats were on the road. Here at Footprint Center, they've been decent. They face a Charlotte (8-27) team that ranks near last in most offensive stats and has lost 10 of their last 11 games. That win was at home vs. Phoenix, so the Suns will be after revenge here. Charlotte haven't played since that win, but the Suns have won twice (both wins here at home), and I like them to take this one.
01:00 WAS Commanders @ TB Buccaneers
TB Buccaneers
Money Line
61 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-61
Tampa Bay (10-7) are 6-1 in their last 7, and that sole loss was a freaky one to Dallas. The Bucs have been great at home, and this offense is ticking along like a well-oiled machine, with QB Baker Mayfield posting career numbers in OC Liam Coen’s offense. As well as Commanders (12-5) QB Daniels has played, he's still a rookie, and I just feel this is a step too far thus far in his career.
WAS Commanders 3.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
The Commanders (12-5) enter this game a lot healthier than Tampa Bay (10-7). Washington were able to rest a couple of key players last week while the Bucs were engaged in a grueling game to qualify for the playoffs. Washington QB Jayden Daniels only took 12 snaps, while Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson only combined for eight carries. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has several injured players in their secondary. So I think this will be close.
Over 51.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
Four straight Buccaneers games have gone over the total. Overs are 12-5 in Buccaneers games this season, including 11-3 in their past 14. Bucs QB Mayfield has posted career numbers in this offense, while Washington's QB Daniels has excelled in his rookie season. These offenses rank top seven in DVOA, while both defenses rank 20th or worse against the pass by DVOA. The Buccaneers and Commanders are a combined 23-11 to the over this year, so despite the big number, I think this is a shootout.
Terry McLaurin (WAS Commanders)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
McLaurin's tenure with the Commanders hasn’t exactly been typified by consistent or great QB play, which finally changed this year with Jayden Daniels at the helm. The Ohio State product blew up for 82 catches, 13 TDs, and 1,096 yards. The Washington WR1 tallied seven TDs in 2019, and no more than five in the following four years. This Commanders TD scorer prop is worth considering. This road game test is Daniels' first sniff of the playoffs, and he’s likely to look for McLaurin often.
00:00 Arthur Rinderknech vs Frances Tiafoe
Over 40.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
Rinderknech (ranked 61) has a big game, and the 29-year-old Frenchman has caused plenty of problems for even the best players on numerous occasions. This early in the season, he may well give world #16 Tiafoe some trouble. In 10 of the last 14 times that he’s faced a top-20 opponent, Rinderknech has taken at least a set ??" and 5 of 6 times in majors. There also isn’t a great deal between this pair on stats for the last 12 months, Rinderknech on a service/return points won total of 100 and Tiafoe just one point ahead on 101. It’s always tricky for players to find their best tennis so early in the season, and Tiafoe has only managed to win his opening match at the AO twice in eight attempts. Rinderknech caused Tiafoe problems on clay in Lyon last May, the Frenchman winning that day in straight sets, winning 86% on first serve on a slow surface.
Arthur Rinderknech 4.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
Rinderknech (ranked 61) has a big game, and the 29-year-old Frenchman has caused plenty of problems for even the best players on numerous occasions. This early in the season, he may well give world #16 Tiafoe some trouble. In 10 of the last 14 times that he’s faced a top-20 opponent, Rinderknech has taken at least a set ??" and 5 of 6 times in majors. There also isn’t a great deal between this pair on stats for the last 12 months, Rinderknech on a service/return points won total of 100 and Tiafoe just one point ahead on 101. It’s always tricky for players to find their best tennis so early in the season, and Tiafoe has only managed to win his opening match at the AO twice in eight attempts. Rinderknech caused Tiafoe problems on clay in Lyon last May, the Frenchman winning that day in straight sets, winning 86% on first serve on a slow surface. I just feel this could be a lot closer than this line would indicate.
00:00 Laura Siegemund vs Hailey Baptiste
Hailey Baptiste
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
Baptiste (ranked 88) has started 2025 in good form, making QFs in Auckland where she suffered a 3-set loss to Osaka. Baptiste likes the faster conditions compared to veteran opponent Siegemund (ranked 97), who is a much better clay court player. The 36-year-old German has never made it past R3 here in Melbourne, and her form to start the new year hasn’t been great. She lost to World No. 146 Xinyu Gao as a -250 favorite at the United Cup, and her only win was against World No. 497 Hanyu Go. Baptiste is 13 years younger at 23, arrives in the first major of the year in good form, and is playing the best tennis of her career. These are two players in different stages of their careers.
00:00 Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex Michelsen
Over 40.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
At odds against, and with this being an early match (so warmer and thus faster conditions), I'll take Overs here, largely down to the inadequacies of world #12 Tsitsipas's return game. Michelsen (ranked 42) has a really good serve and we know Tsitsipas can struggle with that, plus his single-handed backhand is just not as effective in faster conditions.
Subtotal-37
12 January 2025
23:10 NO Pelicans @ BOS Celtics
BOS Celtics
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.09
Win
5
The Pelicans (8-31) are one of the worst teams in the NBA right now. New Orleans are 3-13 in their last 16 games, 2-15 in their last 17 on the road, and have lost 6 straight to Boston (27-11). The Celtics suffered a shock defeat to Sacramento here at TD Garden LTO, so will want to recover from that, and I'd expect them to do so tonight.
21:30 GB Packers @ PHI Eagles
PHI Eagles
Money Line
100 WIN
@1.40
Win
40
With the news that starting QB Jalen Hurts is fit for Philly (14-3), you have to think the Eagles will win this one. The Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games and have covered in three straight home games. Green Bay (11-6) were pretty poor LTO vs. Chicago and have won just 2 of their last 5 games. I think the Eagles tough this one out at Lincoln Financial Field.
GB Packers 5.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
Despite Green Bay (11-6) playing poorly last time out vs. Chicago and the news that starting QB Jalen Hurts is fit for the Eagles (14-3), the Packers have scored 30-plus points in five of their seven final games and are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games. This being a playoff game, Philly just has to win and will also want to keep their star QB from further injury, so I can't see this being too one-sided.
Over 46.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
The Eagles (14-3) starting QB Jalen Hurts is out of the NFL concussion protocol and starts tonight vs. Green Bay (11-6). That's a big upgrade at the QB position, and we've seen Philly (who have the #7 scoring attack and #2 rushing offense) put up some big scores this season. Green Bay's offense looked labored last week, but I suspect there was an element of caution in their play knowing they'd made the post-season already. The Packers scored 30-plus points in 5 of their 7 final games, including five straight contests in Weeks 12 through 16. The weather report is okay, so I like Overs here.
Saquon Barkley (PHI Eagles)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
50 WIN
@1.53
Lose
-50
Terrible odds, but Barkley had 13 TDs in the regular season in his first year for Philly. Given the Eagles have just gotten starting QB Hurts back from concussion protocol, they will not want to risk him in short yardage situations, surely?
18:00 DEN Broncos @ BUF Bills
BUF Bills
Money Line
108 WIN
@1.25
Win
27
I just cannot see the Bills (13-4) losing this game, as Buffalo have thrived in the wild-card round, especially since Josh Allen became the starting QB, going 4-1 with him starting. Denver (10-7) have ended an 8-year playoff drought and get another crack at one of the AFC's top quarterbacks, but the Broncos haven't fared well in such matchups, as they've lost to Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert this season. Buffalo have the #2 ranked offense and have won 8 straight here in Orchard Park.
DEN Broncos 7.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
At evens, I'll take a risk on Denver (10-7) with a TD+ head start here because their defense has been playing really well. Apart from a blowout defeat in Baltimore in early November, they've played teams with top QBs/winning records pretty tight. I think the Bills (13-4) win this game, but the weather forecast is not great, and points will be at a premium IMO. Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix has avoided sacks (24, tied for third fewest) and seems extremely poised for a young QB, impressing with his mobility and his ability to extend plays. So this should be tight.
Under 48.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
The weather in Western NY today is pretty poor, very cold, and snow already with some more fall predicted. And whilst the Bills (13-4) have the second-best scoring offense in the NFL, Denver (10-7) finished as the second-best defense in yards per play allowed (4.9), and opponents scored TDs on just 16% of possessions against them ??" the lowest rate for any defense in football. I like Unders here.
Courtland Sutton (DEN Broncos)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
50 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-50
At these odds, I'll take a risk on Sutton, who's the leading Denver WR and leading TD scorer with 8 this season. The Bills' defense's weakness is in the air - they've conceded 28 TDs against the pass this term. I can see the Broncos having to come from behind here and so go all-out aerial attack, and that should play to this bet.
12:12 12:12 Lingfield
Alices Impact
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Void
0
I just feel there's more to this 4yo filly, who won only once when with John Quinn (over this 7f trip), and if anyone can untap that potential, it's David Evans. She has her first run for the yard, and that's often where the value lies. She's having just her third run on the AW, so plenty of chance for improvement with a useful 5-pound claimer aboard.
01:00 PIT Steelers @ BAL Ravens
PIT Steelers 10.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.87
Lose
-50
After a mid-season renaissance coinciding with the return of QB Russell Wilson from injury, the Steelers (10-7) offense has rather dropped off. However, their defense has remained excellent, and they have kept key games close. HC Tomlin is widely known for not having won a post-season game in 8 seasons. I'm sure he and his team will be using that against old division rivals Baltimore (12-5). Both these teams have been good ATS lately (8-4 Pittsburgh, 5-1 Ravens), and I do feel this could be a low-scoring, cagey affair, which may even be affected by bad weather. If that is the case, 10 points is a lot to give up.
00:30 Anca Todoni vs Qinwen Zheng
Qinwen Zheng
Win Match
77 WIN
@1.11
Win
8
Todoni (ranked 113) has won 6 matches on hard courts to start 2025, but the 20-year-old Romanian has heretofore been seen to best effect on clay. The telling stat here is that she's 0-1 in her career vs top 100 players. Today she faces last year's AO finalist, and world #5, Zheng, who is 16-0 vs players ranked 50+ in the past 12 months.
00:10 TOR Raptors @ DET Pistons
DET Pistons
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Toronto (8-30) have been truly awful this season, especially on Defence. The Raptors are 1-15 in their last 16 games, 1-4 in their last 5 games against Detroit and have lost their last 7 games on the road. The Pistons (19-19) are 5-1 in their last 6 games and 4-1 in their last 5 games at Little Caesars Arena.
00:00 Marie Bouzkova vs Mirra Andreeva
Marie Bouzkova 4.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Frankly, I think this line is a total insult to Bouzkova (ranked 42) as the 26-year-old Czech - ranked as high as #24 just 2 years ago (and would have surely been higher but for injuries) and is a respectable 5-8 vs top 20 opponents on hard courts since Jan 2023. And she's beaten this spread in 2 of those defeats and missed by just 0.5 games in 3 others. Those were against players like Jabeur, Keys, Rybakina, Sabalenka. And I just don't class Andreeva (ranked 15) at that level yet. The 17-year-old Russian is a talent, but she's yet to prove herself to me at Slams, and I'll take the head start for Bouzkova.
Subtotal-199
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