ARQ007

Travelled Man of Kent. Likes: cars, sport, eating out, working out, conversation, travel, gambling, short-sleeve shirts. All teeth my own.

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ARQ007's Tips History

15 August 2025

14:05 2:05 Epsom Downs

Who Is Alice

Daily Racing

25 EW

@3.25

Lose

-11

Jack Channon's 2yo Kameko filly got off the mark at Chepstow (7f) on her penultimate run, winning by 1.5 lengths in a race where the form has worked out well. She was far too keen and raced freely and faded into fourth LTO, in a nursery at Newbury, eventually beaten 6 lengths. But her trainer is in good form and the booking of the estimable David Probert can see her get back on terms.

13 August 2025

16:00 Taylor Fritz vs Terence Atmane

Over 21.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.80

Win

As per my separate Games Won tip (see separate write-up), I think world #4 Fritz faces a decent challenge from in-form Atmane (ranked 136). The 23-year-old French lefty has beaten Fonseca, Cobolli, and Nishioka this week. His service/return points won total against those three very good opponents in Cincy this week is 108, holding serve 88% of the time and winning 41% of return points. It’s not easy to return in Cincy, so Fritz will do well to break that lefty serve. Atmane only lost narrowly to Fritz in their only prior career meeting - also on a decent-paced hard court in Shanghai - going down 7-6, 7-6 that day. Fritz has never been beyond QFs here and seems to focus on fine-tuning his game ahead of the US Open, so he may not be playing at 100%.

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Terence Atmane 4.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@1.70

Win

World #4 Fritz has been winning matches lately but admits he’s not playing his best tennis at the moment, and I expect a decent challenge from in-form Atmane (ranked 136). The 23yoFrench lefty has beaten Fonseca, Cobolli, and Nishioka this week and is one of those streaky, confidence players. His service/return points won total against those three very good opponents in Cincy this week is 108, holding serve 88% of the time and winning 41% of return points. It’s not easy to return in Cincy, so that’s a very solid returning. He should fancy this, having come close against Fritz in their only prior career meeting, also on a decent-paced hard court in Shanghai. Atmane was a little unlucky to lose 7-6, 7-6 that day. Fritz has never been beyond QFs here and seems to focus on fine-tuning his game ahead of New York. Atmane can have a swing here with no pressure.

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12 August 2025

16:25 4:25 Carlisle

Harry Palmer

Daily Racing

25 EW

@5.50

Lose

-50

Kevin Ryan's 3yo Harry Angel gelding was pretty weak in the market when he made all the running to come home unchallenged and win a classified race at Thirsk over a mile by 1.5 lengths last time out. He steps down in trip to 7f here. Raised 6 pounds for the win but still looks a player in this field.

01:30 Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens

Elena Rybakina

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.40

Win

As "hit-and-miss" as World #10 Rybakina can be (especially this season), she should appreciate the fast conditions here in Cincy. The 26yo Kazakh also has a 5-1 career H2H record over Mertens (ranked 22). The sole defeat was on clay (Rybakina's weakest surface) four years ago. In her previous 6 appearances here, the 29yo Belgian has just twice gotten past R2. Mertens is just 1-6 on hard courts in the past 12 months vs top 20 opposition.

11 August 2025

16:00 Aryna Sabalenka vs Emma Raducanu

Over 20.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.85

Win

Despite the change in coach, Brit #1 Raducanu looks to remain in great form after a straightforward win in her first match here in Cincinnati (6-3, 6-2). These fast, outdoor, hard court conditions are ones that favor the 22yo Brit's game. Whilst it is likewise for world #1 Sabalenka, it's noteworthy that this is just her second match since losing in the Wimbledon SF (Raducanu is playing her 9th in similar conditions) and both previous encounters between these two have gone over this number. Indeed, their match in R3 at Wimbledon could easily have gone either way, and Raducanu really should have won at least a set. So I'm going over.

09 August 2025

15:25 3:25 Curragh

Spycatcher

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I'll take a shot with Karl Burke's 7-year-old son of Vadamos, who's a consistent sort and ran well on his only previous visit here, over C&D, last September. He was beaten by just 2 lengths that day in fifth, and the team is going well right now. Clifford Lee rides, who's ridden him on 5 of his 7 career wins. Big odds and four places to aim at, SkyBet paying 5 places.

08 August 2025

00:30 BC Lions @ HAM Tiger Cats

HAM Tiger Cats

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.53

Lose

-50

So the Lions (3-5) are coming here off a bye week, and Hamilton (6-2) has played every week since week 3. But the TiCats have won 6 straight games since that bye, and that includes a 37-33 win vs. BC in Vancouver. BC has the second worst defense in the CFL, whilst East division leaders Hamilton have the best offense, led by veteran QB Bo Levi Mitchell, who's having a great season. I'd expect a home win here.

06 August 2025

23:00 Victoria Mboko vs Elena Rybakina

Over 21.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.83

Win

I'll take a shot at this number because world #12 Rybakina has not been the most solid in semifinals in recent times. She's just 1-4 in semifinals in the last 12 months, and since January 2023, she's played 18 of them, and 14 have gone over this number (10 went to a decider). Her 18yo Canadian opponent has been playing very well in front of home crowds and likes these fast conditions (as does Rybakina). Mboko (ranked 85) has been serving pretty well, saving 72% of break points faced. Rybakina has won about 32% of first serve return points in her 4 matches here.

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05 August 2025

01:30 Alex Michelsen vs Karen Khachanov

Alex Michelsen 2.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-50

Khachanov (ranked 16) has a strong record in Canada of (14-6) and served brilliantly against Ruud yesterday, but looks short against an opponent who beat him pretty comfortably in similar conditions earlier this year. Khachanov’s superb serving against Ruud masks the fact that Ruud won a good deal more second serve points than the Russian (65% versus 54%), and it’s hard to see Khachanov serving that well again. He’ll also get sterner resistance from Michelsen. The 20yo American has the ability to come to the net to finish points and so get better value from his attacking shots. Khachanov is still reluctant to do that, so he has to be better from the back of the court. That didn’t happen in their Melbourne clash, Michelsen winning 60% on second serve vs 48% for Khachanov. And the Michelsen serve was more dominant that day, with 93% holds limiting Khachanov to only 32% return points won. In these fast Toronto conditions, Michelsen can impose his game on Khachanov, and I’m happy to bet on the American here.

00:10 CLE Guardians @ NY Mets

NY Mets

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.53

Lose

-50

The Guardians (56-55, 27-28 away) travel to New York to face the Mets (63-49, 38-18 at home) at Citi Field. It’s been a brutal year for Cleveland. Between lackluster performances from their offense, to one of their more reliable starters in Luis Ortiz, and their star closer in Emmanuel Clase being placed on leave, it’s been a total mess. The Mets have Sean Manaea returning from a lengthy IL stint, and in just four outings, Manaea offers an impressive 2.08 ERA. The Mets' vastly improved bullpen will help, and I think they'll win.

Under 8.00

Game Totals

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

Both offenses will face tough opposition tonight. The Mets start the back-from-IL Sean Manaea, who's given up exactly one run in each of his first four starts this year. The Mets bullpen has been very good lately. Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi hasn’t been quite as good, but has allowed three runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. Throw all these elements into the low-run scoring environment of Citi Field, and I’m expecting both offenses to struggle again tonight.

04 August 2025

23:45 BAL Orioles @ PHI Phillies

PHI Phillies

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.50

Win

The Orioles (51-61, 24-34 away) travel to Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia (63-48, 35-20 home). Philly draws a favorable matchup against southpaw Cade Povich (2-5, ERA: 5.57), who has struggled this season and faces a dynamic Phillies batting lineup. Philadelphia hands the ball to fellow lefty Jesus Luzardo (9-5, ERA: 4.31), who's been a bit streaky this season but should deliver a strong outing against this struggling Orioles lineup.

03 August 2025

15:40 3:40 Deauville

Fallen Angel

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 7.50 on 03/08 at 11:02 Best Odds Guaranteed SP 9 used instead of 7.50 taken BOG

@10.00

Win

270

Karl Burke's 4yo Too Darn Hot filly drops back to this 7f+ trip at which she has a great record, albeit from her juvenile days. However, she's perhaps struggled to see out further subsequently but her recent second in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot shows what she's capable of at this sort of distance. Four places on offer here.

January

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

The Coolmore team send over this 3yo daughter of Kingman who of course receives weight from most of her main rivals. She was a good second in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes on July 11th at Newmarket (over a mile) last time out. Soumillon gets the ride today and IMO the one to beat.

14:55 2:55 Galway

Blood Destiny

Daily Racing

56 WINNB

@1.62

Lose

-56

Willie Mullins has won 4 of last 10 runnings of this race and his 6yo No Risk At All gelding is highest rated here by 6 pounds. He travelled, and went clear with ease, when outclassing his rivals down in grade to win the John J Galvin Chase at Listowel over 2m3f by 11 lengths last time out in June. Likes making the running, is back off a short-break and this former Graded winner is the one to beat.

01 August 2025

02:40 TEX Rangers @ SEA Mariners

Over 7.50

Game Totals

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

In their last 10 games, the Rangers have seen the total go over this number 8 times. The likely pitchers are Texas: Rocker (4-4, 5.73 ERA), Seattle: Kirby (5-5, 4.50 ERA). The total has gone over in 12 of Seattle's last 16 games against Texas. This is a low number, so I have to go over.

01:00 LA Chargers @ DET Lions

Under 34.00

Game Totals

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

The NFL preseason starts tonight with the annual Hall of Fame Game from Canton, Ohio. This is traditionally a chance for teams to just blow off the cobwebs from the off-season and try out their lesser-squad members. Don't expect to see either team's stars, including QBs Justin Herbert and Jared Goff. Instead, the likes of DJ Uiagalelei, Trey Lance, and Hendon Hooker will be on display. Offensive play calling is typically pretty conservative, and they split reps between backup QBs. Add the fact that the weather is due to be pretty foul (rain) and it's an open-air stadium, I'll go Under.

00:30 CAL Stampeders @ OTT Redblacks

Under 50.00

Game Totals

50 WIN

@1.91

Win

Calgary's starting QB Vernon Adams Jr. is out, which means backup P.J. Walker makes his first career CFL start under center. He completed three passes for 20 yards in relief of Adams Jr. against Montreal LTO. Redblacks' starting QB Dru Brown has been banged up a few times this season, missing time with a hip injury and dealing recently with a neck ailment. Ottawa has given up the third most sacks with 15, and the Stamps’ defensive linemen are pretty good. Calgary has also forced a league-leading 20 turnovers this season. In short, I think this goes Under.

00:10 ATL Braves @ CIN Reds

CIN Reds

Money Line

62 WIN

@1.55

Lose

-62

Atlanta (45-62, 19-36 away) are 4th in the NL East and have traveled to Cincy having played in Kansas City last night (they went runless, losing 1-0!). It looks like they're starting Carrasco (2-2, ERA: 5.91) who's not doing that well. In 32 innings this season, he's allowed 39 hits, 7 of which have left the park, and tonight is in a park that doesn't hold fly balls well at all. The Reds (57-52, 32-24 home) are third in the NL Central and are riding high after finally getting the best of the Dodgers. They start Abbott (8-1, ERA: 2.09), who's had a great season. Only twice since May has Abbott given up more than 2 earned runs: once on the road at the Phillies and the other time against the Brewers who know him well. Surely a home win.

31 July 2025

20:45 8:45 Wolverhampton

Penzance

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

With 4 places on offer, I'll take a chance on this 5-year-old son of Wootton Bassett, who's a former inmate of Mick Appleby's yard. He was well-backed when second, beaten just 2 lengths, in the Conditions Race over 10f at Gowran Park latest on the first run for his new connections. He was improving with each run lately, and his 3 runs at this level have seen 2 wins. Worth a go at this price.

19:15 7:15 Wolverhampton

Change Sings

Daily Racing

25 EW

@3.75

Lose

-50

Eve J-H’s 5yo Saxon Warrior gelding was beaten in the Group 3 Coral Charge at Sandown LTO over 5f but had been in good form prior to that run. He’s won in his only previous C&D run here at Wolves, and this is his much better trip. Yard in decent form, big shout.

18:15 6:15 Wolverhampton

Azure Zain

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

I just feel that Richard Fahey’s 3yo son of Hello Youmzain is too big a price here. He won his Maiden on third start over C&D, with 2 subsequent winners in behind, and had looked pretty progressive prior to his run in a Class 3 handicap at HQ (his run before he won here was also over C&D and whilst a long way behind the winner, that one looks a very good horse and the selection wasn’t far behind the runner up). Worth a punt.

30 July 2025

23:00 Emma Raducanu vs Peyton Stearns

Emma Raducanu

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.33

Win

I'd really expect newly reinstated Brit #1 Raducanu (ranked 33) to win here as the former US Open champ has hit a vein of form and is on the faster, hard courts that her game favors. She had a great run to the semifinals in Washington and completed an easy Round 1 win here in Montreal. She's beaten Stearns (ranked 37) in straight sets on both prior encounters, and the 23-year-old American is not in great form at present, with just 1 win in her last 6 matches. She lost to 45-year-old veteran Venus Williams in Washington.

18:28 6:28 Leicester

Awaken

Daily Racing

98 WINNAP

@1.13

Win

Clearly facile odds, but George Boughey's 2yo Mehmas colt has shown some sparkling form, notably when nearly causing a huge shock as runner-up at 66/1 in the Albany Stakes (Group 3) at Royal Ascot LTO. That was after a good run into second on debut. Has the conditions to suit here. Billy Loughnane (aboard the first 2 runs) steers again and sets a high standard. Should get off the mark here as something will have to be very special to beat him.

16:00 Adrian Mannarino vs Ben Shelton

Over 21.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.87

Lose

-50

World #7 Shelton has struggled against Mannarino (ranked 94) in the past and against lefties in general at the main level. "Manna" leads the career series 2-0, both wins on outdoor hard and as an underdog. Crucially, Shelton has only held serve 74% of the time vs. the veteran Frenchman. The young American's record against lefties at the main level shows a win rate of just 47%. Of 15 completed matches vs. southpaws at the main level, he’s only won 3 in straight sets, those 3 versus players ranked between #102 and #179. He’s facing a Mannarino that’s got the quick conditions he needs and who was very good LTO vs. Giron in R1 (91% first serve points won, 61% second serve points won). Shelton continues to be up and down, with a poor performance in DC last week vs. Davidovich Fokina after a good one versus Tiafoe, so you’re never sure which Shelton will turn up. He should win, but it’s an awkward opener.

Adrian Mannarino 4.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

16:00 Frances Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki

Yosuke Watanuki 3.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@2.00

Win

Tiafoe (ranked 12) has a poor record in Canada, and he defends final points next week from Cincy last year, so he may be less than committed here. The American has a losing record in Canada (46% win rate) and has lost 4 of his last 5 matches at the Rogers Cup. His H2H with Watanuki (ranked 158) is tied at 1-1. It’s the Japanese player who leads the stats and has won 40% of return points versus Tiafoe. When he’s fit (which isn’t that often), he's capable of testing the better players in the men’s game. Coming through R1 against a poor Altmaier, winning a good 80% on first serve and 65% on second serve, so he’s playing well. Anything less than somewhere near full commitment from Tiafoe could see an upset here.

16:00 Tristan Boyer vs Jakub Mensik

Over 20.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

So I get that Mensik (ranked 18) is ranked 105 places above Boyer (ranked 123), but the 19-year-old Czech hasn't played a match since Wimbledon and is prone to playing some long sets and matches. In his 14 best-of-3 matches in the past 12 months, Mensik has gone over this number 10 times, and two of the other 4 matches saw him miss this total by 0.5 games. Boyer won 83% of his first serve points LTO here vs Kovacevic, and we know conditions are pretty fast here in Toronto (there's 188m of altitude), all of which points to service holds. With this being such a low total, I have to go overs.

14:45 2:45 Redcar

Circios

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@1.30

Win

Clearly facile odds, but Ralph Beckett's 3yo Kingman filly has shown some sparkling form in her first two starts, both at a decent level, at Doncaster and Chester. Several winners came out of her first run, and she was well clear of the field (11 lengths) LTO. Sets a high standard here, and something will have to be very special to beat her.

28 July 2025

18:40 6:40 Galway

Comfort Zone

Daily Racing

25 EW

@6.50

Lose

-50

Joseph O'Brien's 6-year-old son of Churchill is in good form at present on the flat, with form figures of 133 in his last 3 runs, the latter a close-up 0.75 lengths behind in the Ascot Stakes. The likely sound surface suits, and he has Derek O'Connor booked to ride, so lots to like here.

16:05 4:05 Ayr

Born Ruler

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

Taking a shot that Sir Mark Prescott's 5-year-old son of Kingman can at least place, as he's won and finished runner-up on both his C&D runs here, his last win being the one here about a year ago. He's dropped in class and his 6 runs at this level read: 122413. Raced rather freely when beaten 6 lengths in a handicap over 1m4f at York last time out but dropped a pound after that and has blinkers on for the first time here. So with the yard in decent form, I think he's got a chance down in grade.

Crown Of Oaks

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.00

Win

William Haggas's 3yo son of Wootton Bassett makes his handicap debut up in trip here from a potentially lenient mark of 79. Although he's yet to win, he's been running in some decent maidens and had every chance last time out when a 3 lengths third in a maiden over 1m at Redcar 63 days ago. He should have more to offer now handicapping, and the yard has sent just 3 runners to this track in the past 12 months - all of whom have won!

26 July 2025

02:00 EDM Elks @ SAS Roughriders

SAS Roughriders

Money Line

85 WIN

@1.17

Win

Despite a blip vs. West Division rivals (and leaders) Calgary 2 weeks ago, the Roughriders (5-1) are right in contention. Saskatchewan is 5-2 in their last 7 games at Mosaic Stadium, and starting veteran QB Harris is in tremendous form this term. Edmonton (1-5) does come in off a bye week, but the Elks' only win came against the equally poor Redblacks, and they are just 6-15 in their last 21 games on the road. I can't see an upset here.

25 July 2025

02:00 MON Alouettes @ CAL Stampeders

CAL Stampeders

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.36

Lose

-50

The Stampeders (5-1) took down Winnipeg for the second time in three weeks in Week 7 and had a win over the Roughriders in between those two victories. Although they lost the return to Saskatchewan, there's no shame in that form. So with those Ws, the Stamps have firmly solidified themselves as the top team in the CFL. QB Vernon Adams Jr. and co. now host Montreal (4-2), who will be without starting QB Davis Alexander again. With that in mind, I have to take the home side here.

24 July 2025

20:10 8:10 Yarmouth

Miller Spirit

Daily Racing

25 EW

@5.00

Lose

-5

Gary and Josh Moore's 5-year-old son of Australia was a big improver on the flat last season and finished a decent 6th in the November Handicap before nabbing a comfortable win on hurdles debut after that. He ran to form (was slightly impeded) when beaten 3 lengths off a rating of 92 over 1m4f in a Class 2 at Ascot last time out. Step up in trip here should suit, dropped 2 pounds and a significant jockey booking in Billy Loughnane.

19:40 7:40 Yarmouth

Jer Batt

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@4.50

Lose

-8

Tony Barron's 5yo Dragon Pulse gelding has been a consistent type in sprint handicaps. I'll forgive his run LTO (he looked full of running when caught too far back at Chester prior to that) and note that he drops down in grade here and dropped 2 pounds, with a significant jockey booking. Big shout.

19:02 7:02 Newbury

Who Is Alice

Daily Racing

25 EW

@4.00

Lose

-50

Jack Channon's 2yo well-bred Kameko filly was ideally suited by the step up to 7f LTO to win a maiden at Chepstow by 1.5 lengths, that on her third outing. That was a marked step forward and she should have more to offer, so an initial mark of 69 could prove to be lenient, plus she has a decent claimer taking 5lb off.

16:00 Brandon Nakashima vs Cameron Norrie

Cameron Norrie

Win Match

50 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-50

Nakashima (ranked 32) looks a shaky favorite against Norrie (ranked 41) here in DC. The 23yo American is coming into this match with a weak record against left-handers like Norrie. Nakashima has lost 14 of his last 16 main-level matches against lefties and struggles to win return points against southpaws. His overall career record at the main level versus lefties is 9-21, and his career head-to-head with Norrie is 1-3, so he clearly has issues against such opposition. Against Norrie alone, Nakashima only wins 32% on return. Norrie holds 87% of the time but wins 41% on return, so the 29yo Brit has dominated the match-up. Norrie loves nothing more than a physical battle in the heat, as a former Rio winner, and that’s how he beat Musetti in his R2 match last night.

15:30 Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.80

Void

Ruiz is on a comeback after a bad injury following his breakthrough to a maiden ATP Tour QF in Estoril last year, so don't let his #537 ranking fool you. The 22yo Spaniard faces what looks like a depleted Ugo Carabelli (ranked 51). It would be no shock to see the same result as when these two met before: retirement from Ugo Carabelli. The 26yo Argentine looked in poor shape last week in Bastad (leg issue) and should have lost on Tuesday, Passaro choking from a break up in the final set. In that match, Ugo Carabelli looked done and often seemed ready to retire. Afterwards, he said: “I was so tired after playing Saturday in Bastad. It’s so hot here. I have a free day tomorrow to rest." But that’s not actually true as he played doubles today (a long match, too!). This match looks like one player desperate to carry on his career while the other wouldn’t be too upset to stop here given his physical issues. It’ll be another tough, physical clay battle in the heat and Llamas Ruiz has the edge for me here.

01:05 The Athletics @ TEX Rangers

TEX Rangers

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.71

Win

The Rangers (52-50, 30-20 at home) will go for the sweep in this series tonight. It’ll be Patrick Corbin (6-7, ERA: 3.91) on the mound for Texas, and JP Sears (7-8, ERA: 5.13) will oppose him for the A’s (42-61, 22-30 away). Corbin has been flying under the radar in 2025, as he's having a solid campaign. Sears got battered last time out and the A's have lost 5 of their last 6, and this is a sixth straight road game (with 4 more to come!).

00:35 CHI White Sox @ TB Rays

TB Rays

Money Line

50 WIN

@1.44

Lose

-50

I tipped Tampa Bay (53-49, 31-27 at home) to win the first of this series and that didn't happen. But they did win game 2, and I think starter Taj Bradley (6-6, ERA: 4.35) can get the "W" here. The White Sox (36-66, 15-37 away) start Jonathan Cannon (4-7, ERA: 4.18), who's really struggled in the majors.

Over 9.00

Game Totals

50 WIN

@2.00

Win

Tampa Bay (53-49, 31-27 at home) conceded 8 runs in the first game of this series. Starter Taj Bradley (6-6, ERA: 4.35) has been lucky with home-run avoidance this season, and that’s sure to regress. The White Sox (36-66, 15-37 away) start Jonathan Cannon (4-7, ERA: 4.18), who's rather struggled in the majors as the league has become more familiar with him. He has a big fastball and a solid slider, but he doesn’t use either pitch enough. These are also two poor defensive teams, and the weather is projected to be hitter-friendly, so I like Overs.

23 July 2025

23:40 BAL Orioles @ CLE Guardians

Over 8.50

Game Totals

50 WIN

@1.83

Lose

-50

I'm going to try the Overs here as we have two starting pitchers who're not in the best of form. The first two games of this series have seen totals of 15 and 9. Visitors Baltimore start Zach Eflin (6-5, ERA: 5.95) who has lost his last three, and opponents have scored 7, 9, and 11 runs in those games. The Guardians start Slade Cecconi (5-4, ERA: 3.84) who's done okay but not great. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games and in all of Cleveland's last 6 games.

20:20 8:20 Naas

Dark Viper

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 7.00 used instead of 6.50 takenBOG

@7.00

Win

Jessie Harrington's 4yo Dark Angel gelding ran a bit below form when dropped back in trip and was beaten 4.5 lengths in a handicap at Leopardstown last time out, but had been in good form prior to that. Notable jockey booking with Shane Foley back on board, and whilst a bit high in the weights, this is a winnable race.

19:45 7:45 Naas

Comanche Brave

Daily Racing

34 EWNOTETip made at odds of 3.00 on 22/07 at 20:410.35 deduction for Expanded@2.62 withdrawn at 09:53R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.00 x (1-0.35) = 2.30

@2.30

Win

Clearly not an each-way price, but the one for the forecast for me here. Like the market leader, he's a son of Wootton Bassett and is rated just 2 lb inferior to his half-brother. A beaten favorite in third in the Jersey at Royal Ascot LTO but was actually in front of Expanded when fifth in the Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh prior to that and should give the Jolly something to think about.

Expanded

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@2.50

Void

Aidan O'Brien's 3yo Wootton Bassett colt has been rather disappointing the last two times, in both English and Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1), and was well down the field over 1m at The Curragh LTO. Comes here off a short break and is yet to show he retains the ability shown as a 2yo (narrow Dewhurst runner-up), but if it's still there, he's the class of this field.

16:00 Taylor Fritz vs Aleksandar Vukic

Over 21.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

I'm quite surprised that this line is so low because in the two meetings between world #4 Fritz and Vukic (ranked 105), there have been so few breaks of serve. Fritz has gone unbroken in both encounters, and Vukic has saved 12 of 14 BPs faced. At Eastbourne on grass last season (Fritz's "turf"!), the American won in two TBs, and in Atlanta in '23, it was a 7-5, 6-7, 6-4 win for Fritz. It's hot and pretty quick here in DC, so I'll take Overs.

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Aleksandar Vukic 4.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

I think world #4 Fritz wins this one, but in his 2 prior H2Hs with Vukic (ranked 105), there have been so few breaks of serve that I feel this spread is too big. Fritz went unbroken in both encounters, but Vukic has saved 12 of 14 BPs faced. At Eastbourne on grass last season (Fritz's domain), the American won 7-6, 7-6, and in Atlanta in '23, it was a 7-5, 6-7, 6-4 win for Fritz. In his 2 previous attempts here, Vukic has lost by just 2 and 3 games vs. some big servers. It's hot and pretty quick here in DC, so likely to be serve-dominated again, and I'll take a big spread.

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13:00 Linda Noskova vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto

Linda Noskova

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.44

Win

In front of a partisan home crowd, I would expect Noskova (ranked 23) to do the business here in Prague as the 20-year-old Czech will look to make progress in her home event. The promising youngster has already made the final here before and also twice made the semifinals. She's never played Cocciaretto (ranked 77), and the 24-year-old Italian is in good form, having just won the title in Bastad. But that was on her favored clay, and she's just 3-5 on hard courts in 2025. Add the fact that she must surely be feeling some fatigue after a lot of tennis recently, and I'll take the home player.

11:30 Marie Bouzkova vs Lucrezia Stefanini

Marie Bouzkova to win 2 - 0

Set Betting

50 WIN

@1.36

Win

In front of a partisan home crowd, I would expect Bouzkova (ranked 47) to do the business pretty quickly here in Prague. The 27-year-old Czech, who won this very tournament in 2022, looks to be getting back to her best after myriad injury issues. She won her only prior H2H with Stefanini 6-2, 6-1 in Guadalajara (similar conditions) last year. The 27-year-old Italian is just 3-5 on hard courts vs. top 100 players in the last 12 months (0-3 vs. top 50 players, 2 of those defeats in straight sets).

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ARQ007

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