ARQ007

This is a repeat of the 2023 QF here in Halle in which Bublik (ranked 45) led by a set and a break before now world #1 Sinner retired with a leg injury. A slick, quick, grass court like this one is where the 28yo Kazakh usually excels. Bublik has an 88% win rate here, a service/return points won total of 111, 91% service holds and 85% first serve points won. Sinner’s stats are 89% win rate, service/return points won total of 108, 95% holds, 81% first serve points won. In that aborted clash Bublik held serve 86% and was on fire again on serve in R1 LTO, holding 100% of the time, winning 89% first serve points, 12 aces and no BPs faced. Bublik’s unorthodox game will deprive Sinner of rhythm and while Sinner is more comfortable at the net now, he’s not a natural there - Bublik will look to bring him off the baseline/out of his comfort zone with dropshots and short slices. Having made the last 8 at the French Open Bublik’s game is in good order and he clearly loves playing here. I think he makes this a test.

Fernandez (ranked 30) has a decent game for grass, the 22yo Canadian made the QFs in Birmingham and teh Final at Eastbourne last year. She has a 2-0 H2H record over Bucsa (ranked 107), who does not have a great game for grass, she relies on consistency and mistakes from her opponent. The 27yo Spaniard is 4-2 on grass this term but the form of her wins is not great and she is 4-9 in her career on turf vs top 100 ranked opponents.

Auger-Aliassime (ranked 27) has a decent record here in Halle, the 24yo Canadian is 5-2 with the losses both excusable. He got 2 good wins in Stuttgart last week and it was a tight loss in the SF there to eventual winner Fritz. Djere (ranked 65) is not great on grass, the 30yo Serbian much prefers clay and he's just 6-6 on turf since 2023. He has won 2 Qualies matches here but I just feel Auger-Aliassime will have too much in these fast conditons.

Cerundolo (ranked 18) won a grass title at Eastbourne in 2023, but was rather fortunate to win that and his grass stats are some way inferior to those of Michelsen (ranked 33). Cerundolo didn't win a match on grass last year and his main level service/return points won total on turf is just 97, with a win rate of 47%. Michelsen's service/return points won total on grass is 102 with a win rate of 56%. The 20yo American's game is naturally more suited to grass and in very quick conditions in Halle he can take time off Cerundolo, who hasn't played since a shock R1 loss in Paris to Diallo. Michelsen played a couple of matches in Stuttgart last week and made the doubles final. so he should be more attuned to the conditions and we'll see how motivated Cerundolo is for this grass swing having played a ton of tennis this year, so he may well be less than committed for this few weeks before heading back to the clay after Wimbledon.

Humbert (ranked 20) still looks to be struggling physically - the 26yo Frenchman was flat out on the turf having treatment for a back issue LTO and wasn't moving well in the latter stages. He also has a worse record against fellow lefties, like Shapovalov (ranked 31), at main level (50% win rate versus 54% against righties). And on grass vs lefties he's suffered some bad losses - Peniston, Monteiro and Mannarino have beaten Humbert on turf (his only wins on grass against lefties came against clay dog Delbonis and lowly-ranked Gijs Brouwer). The H2H with Shapovalov favours the 26yo Canadian leads the service/return points won totals of their series by 101.4 to 98.6 and he's won 3 of their 5 clashes. Shapo's wins all came on clay, but we know Humbert has struggled on grass vs lefties. "Shapo" should be desperate to make up for what was a weak performance LTO vs Rinderknech in Stuttgart and this looks a decent chance to do just that.

Jessie Harrington's 3yo Wootton Bassett colt likely needed the run when beaten 7 lengths in the 2000 Guineas (Group 1) over 8f at Newmarket last time out. Had been in good form prior to that, and the form of his juvenile win has been franked emphatically. Has run well here; step up in trip should be fine.

Norrie (ranked 81) enjoy a physical test and loves a long battle in slow conditions. I’m happy to back former Brit #1 Norrie as he'll know Fearnley (ranked 55) well from the UK scene and Davis Cup. There are few better at neutralising a player’s strengths than the 29yo Brit, who’ll be relentless in pinning his 23yo compatriot to his weaker backhand. He showed how it’s done last week in Geneva against a similar opponent in Popyrin, grinding the Aussie down. Norrie’s confidence is high after really testing Djokovic in Geneva then finally beating his nemesis Medvedev here in Paris. There’s little to choose between this pair in their last 10 matches each on clay at main level, but Fearnley relies heavily on first serve, winning only 46% on second serve. He’s still inexperienced both on clay and over best-of-five, never having gone past 4 sets in his career. I’ll be impressed if he's able to beat Norrie in a long four or five set match on clay, with Norrie likely relishing this opportunity to showcase his unattractive but effective play style. Fearnley will need to play a very clean match to win this one.

Skinny odds here as world #253 Tan takes on a player ranked 70 odd places above her in Leonard (ranked 178). But Tan has a decent career record on grass and is 13-5 on turf vs players ranked 100+. The 27-year-old French player made the semifinals in Surbiton last year, from qualifiers, only losing to grass-specialist Van Uytvanck. As far as I can see, her 24-year-old compatriot Manon has never played on grass at any sort of level. Tan was rated top 100 just 3 years ago, and I feel she's the bet here.

As this game is in New York, and the Knicks know they cannot win a high-scoring game, I fully expect this to be a half-court game. The only game the Knicks have been able to win in this series was one that landed 206. There were 71 free throws attempted in the last game, and I don't expect anywhere near that tonight. Both teams shot over 40% from behind the arc, and I also don't expect that to happen in back-to-back games. After a high-scoring first game, the second game landed 223, and that was game two in New York, so I expect this one to play out like that one.

It's a "last dance" for 38-year-old Frenchman Gasquet, and credit to him for getting past R1 here at Roland Garros. But I can't see him making it any further. With world #1 Sinner looking like he's raring to go after his "enforced break," with only world #12 Paul and #2 Alcaraz taking sets off him, this should be a straightforward win.

It's rarely a straightforward matter when you back Ostapenko (ranked 21) as the diminutive, but fiery, 27-year-old Latvian frequently blows hot-and-cold in a match (often in the same game!). And the champion here at Roland Garros in 2017 has not since then had a long run in this event. That said, she took the title on clay in Stuttgart last month and came through a testing R1 match to attain an 8-3 record on the dirt this year. And Dolehide (ranked 67) doesn't have a great record on the red-stuff. The 26-year-old American is just 7-5 this year and 3-10 on clay in her career vs top 50 opponents (she's 0-8 vs top 20 players).

It is unfortunate for Escoffier (ranked 218) that the 33-year-old Frenchman’s home Slam is played on clay, as he has a terrible record on the dirt, finding his success on hard courts and at a typically much lower level. He’s 1-3 on clay at a recognized level since January 2023, the sole win against an opponent ranked #374. Virtanen (ranked 114) won their only prior head-to-head match??"also in the Qualifiers for Roland Garros??"in straight sets in 2023, and the 23-year-old Finn is in decent enough form to get the better of his opponent again here on a surface where he’s very comfortable.

I'll take a punt on Fucsovics here as the 33-year-old Hungarian is far better than his current ranking of 134 suggests (he's had a lot of injury issues) and likes the quick conditions that the 400m of altitude provides here in Geneva. Indeed, he's a former winner here (2018) and he's 8-6 on clay so far this term. Bergs (ranked 50) is in a bit of a flux - the 25-year-old Belgian has had a few injuries, has just split from his coach, and is just 2-3 on clay so far (one win vs a player ranked #374).

This unraced son of Dark Angel is trained by Richard Fahey, and cost a lot of money as a yearling. The key with this horse is to watch the betting, because if the money comes then get on! Can't do that here so tipped up in advance in the hope he's well prepped for his debut.

Know who leads the ATP Tour the last year regarding first serve points won? Hurkacz? Berrettini? No - at 79.9% (just ahead of world #1 Sinner on 79.6%), it's Halys (ranked 52) who's also third in terms of aces per game. The 28yo Frenchman showed his liking for altitude clay tennis last season when he made the final of Gstaad, and he’s only very narrowly behind Munar (ranked 66) in main level clay stats the last year. The 28yo Spaniard has struggled on clay lately. The vast majority of Halys’s matches were played at altitude, and he still wins 79% of his first serve points in the last year on this surface, so his first serve will still be hugely effective and key here. Halys held serve 100% of the time against Munar on indoor hard in their only senior level career meeting, Munar winning just 28% of return points. It’s hard to see Halys holding serve that often on clay, but the altitude gives him a chance here. Munar was lucky not to lose to Barrios Vera in Rome (the latter got cramp late on), lost in Madrid (altitude) in R1 to Bautista Agut, and Marrakech (altitude) to Majchrzak.