ARQ007

Travelled Man of Kent. Likes: cars, sport, eating out, working out, conversation, travel, gambling, short-sleeve shirts. All teeth my own.

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ARQ007's Tips History

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11 June 2025
13:30 Hanne Vandewinkel vs Oksana Selekhmeteva

Oksana Selekhmeteva

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.45

Lose

-50

You'd really expect Selekhmeteva (ranked 146) to win this one, not only because the 22-year-old Russian is ranked 39 places higher than opponent Vandewinkel (#185) but because she's vastly more experienced at a higher level than her 21-year-old Belgian opponent. She's 25-9 on clay in the past 12 months at recognized levels, 8-3 at main WTA level. Vandewinkel has played just 2 WTA level matches her whole career (1-1, the win LTO here vs #218 ranked Boskovic).
11:30 Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hubert Hurkacz

Over 23.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.95

Lose

-50

Hurkacz (ranked 32) has been good to me over the years. The 28-year-old is a big server, which is even more effective on grass. But early in the season, the surface has caused issues for the 6ft 5" Pole so far. Hurkacz has never won his opening match of the grass swing in under 25 games, and he’s likely to meet stern resistance from Bautista Agut (ranked 50), who’s very capable on grass. RBA has a better career record on grass in terms of their level stats on the surface. Hurkacz only wins 33% of return points on grass, leading to a lot of tie-breaks and long matches. Their career head-to-head has been tightly contested, with Hurkacz only beating RBA comfortably once in 6 career clashes. Both men win only 34.5% of return points in this series, and they’ve played a big 0.47 tie-breaks per set. RBA has been playing well on unsuitably slow clay lately, making the quarterfinals in really slow conditions in Hamburg. This should be close, and I like Over here.
09 June 2025
17:03 5:03 Brighton

Falmouth Boy

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

Tony Barron's 4yo gelding is not an obvious selection. This son of Kodiac is a 12-race maiden who beat just five rivals home in his last five starts, so doesn't spring to mind as a horse to follow. But, he's shown some flashes of ability, mainly on the strength of an eye-catching run in a 6f nursery at Southwell in December 2023. Despite going close a couple of times, he generally disappointed, and eight runs later he dropped to a rating of 46. Now down a further 2lbs to 44, I am pleased to see this run is over 7 furlongs as I believe it will suit him better than six. Tony Carroll does well with horses returning from a break and at this track. I hope there may have been a few tweaks since he was last seen. Taking a shot at a big price in what is a weak race.
07 June 2025
15:55 3:55 Navan

Red Letter

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@1.50

Lose

-50

Ger Lyons' 3yo daughter of Frankel ran to form when beaten 3 lengths in the 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) at Newmarket last time out. That run sets a very high standard here and she should come on for the run. The one to beat.
14:45 2:45 Epsom Downs

Jer Batt

Daily Racing

25 EW

@5.00

Lose

-50

Tony Barron's 5yo gelding is very interesting on several pieces of form, notably a sound reappearance third at Musselburgh in April. The booking of Oisin Murphy here takes the eye, and this one is high on the list.
06 June 2025
14:40 2:40 Epsom Downs

Calandagan

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@1.91

Lose

-50

The French challenger here is a worthy favorite, as his second place at Meydan bears the closest inspection and is almost certainly the best form on offer in this race, that among several top-class performances last season. This 4yo son of Gleneagles is no stranger to these shores and will benefit from Barzalona's expertise.
05 June 2025
17:55 5:55 Leopardstown

Green Impact

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.38 used instead of 2.10 takenBOG

@2.38

Win

68

Jessie Harrington's 3yo Wootton Bassett colt likely needed the run when beaten 7 lengths in the 2000 Guineas (Group 1) over 8f at Newmarket last time out. Had been in good form prior to that, and the form of his juvenile win has been franked emphatically. Has run well here; step up in trip should be fine.
1 member found this comment useful
01 June 2025
18:45 6:45 Chelmsford City

Glam Squad

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Lose

-50

Charlie Fellowes' 4yo son of Phoenix Of Spain is a pretty consistent performer at this level, and he likely needed the run LTO on seasonal bow (having had to take a wide trip) LTO when beaten 5 lengths in a handicap at Kempton 17 days ago. Should come on for that run and significant jockey booking with the in-form Saffie Osborne. Decent price and 5 places on offer.
31 May 2025
15:00 Cameron Norrie vs Jacob Fearnley

Cameron Norrie

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.75

Win

38

Norrie (ranked 81) enjoy a physical test and loves a long battle in slow conditions. I’m happy to back former Brit #1 Norrie as he'll know Fearnley (ranked 55) well from the UK scene and Davis Cup. There are few better at neutralising a player’s strengths than the 29yo Brit, who’ll be relentless in pinning his 23yo compatriot to his weaker backhand. He showed how it’s done last week in Geneva against a similar opponent in Popyrin, grinding the Aussie down. Norrie’s confidence is high after really testing Djokovic in Geneva then finally beating his nemesis Medvedev here in Paris. There’s little to choose between this pair in their last 10 matches each on clay at main level, but Fearnley relies heavily on first serve, winning only 46% on second serve. He’s still inexperienced both on clay and over best-of-five, never having gone past 4 sets in his career. I’ll be impressed if he's able to beat Norrie in a long four or five set match on clay, with Norrie likely relishing this opportunity to showcase his unattractive but effective play style. Fearnley will need to play a very clean match to win this one.
12:30 Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli

Over 35.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

I just can't see either of these players winning this in straight sets, and with this number, the bookies have given us a shot at going over with a 3-1 set scoreline. World #3 Zverev is, of course, last year's losing finalist, but in his 5 matches last year from R3 onwards (so against the better players in the event), including the final, the 28-year-old German lost at least 1 set. The exception was against a seemingly lost-for-ideas De Minaur. Cobolli (ranked 26) is in superb form at present. The 23-year-old Italian won the event in Hamburg last week and beat compatriot Arnaldi LTO in a solid win. Since last season, he's 3-4 on clay vs. top 20 players, and I reckon he has a set in him. The worry is fatigue given the amount of tennis he's played, but I'll take the shot.
1 member found this comment useful
12:30 Manon Leonard vs Harmony Tan

Harmony Tan

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.30

Win

15

Skinny odds here as world #253 Tan takes on a player ranked 70 odd places above her in Leonard (ranked 178). But Tan has a decent career record on grass and is 13-5 on turf vs players ranked 100+. The 27-year-old French player made the semifinals in Surbiton last year, from qualifiers, only losing to grass-specialist Van Uytvanck. As far as I can see, her 24-year-old compatriot Manon has never played on grass at any sort of level. Tan was rated top 100 just 3 years ago, and I feel she's the bet here.
1 member found this comment useful
30 May 2025
01:00 IND Pacers @ NY Knicks

Under 223.50

Game Totals

50 WIN

@1.91

Win

46

As this game is in New York, and the Knicks know they cannot win a high-scoring game, I fully expect this to be a half-court game. The only game the Knicks have been able to win in this series was one that landed 206. There were 71 free throws attempted in the last game, and I don't expect anywhere near that tonight. Both teams shot over 40% from behind the arc, and I also don't expect that to happen in back-to-back games. After a high-scoring first game, the second game landed 223, and that was game two in New York, so I expect this one to play out like that one.
29 May 2025
15:00 Jacob Fearnley vs Ugo Humbert

Jacob Fearnley

Win Match

50 WIN

@2.20

Void

0

I have to fade Humbert (ranked 21) here, and not just because the Frenchman has never gone past the second round in his home Slam. He's also been playing with a fracture in his right wrist lately, and recent matches have seen the 26-year-old lefty with heavy strapping on his right hand/lower arm. His recent form, just 3 wins in his last 10, his win over a terrible O'Connell in R1 here more a reflection on his struggling opponent. This looks like an opportunity for Fearnley (ranked 55) as Humbert is just 4-10 on clay since 2023 vs top 50 opposition. And the 23-year-old Brit is in very good form, 9-5 on the clay in 2023 (Humbert is 2-4), and he dispatched Stan Wawrinka with ease in R1. He's also used to playing against hostile crowds, having beaten Fognini in Rome earlier this month.
1 member found this comment useful
12:30 Jannik Sinner vs Richard Gasquet

Jannik Sinner to win 3 - 0

Set Betting

58 WIN

@1.28

Win

16

It's a "last dance" for 38-year-old Frenchman Gasquet, and credit to him for getting past R1 here at Roland Garros. But I can't see him making it any further. With world #1 Sinner looking like he's raring to go after his "enforced break," with only world #12 Paul and #2 Alcaraz taking sets off him, this should be a straightforward win.
28 May 2025
20:22 8:22 Kempton

Arqoob

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

At double figure price with an extra place on offer I'll take a shot at Lucy Wadham's 7yo Estidhkaar gelding, who won over C&D on his penultimate start in March off a mark of 87 (he's on 89 here). He was beaten by a nose on that same mark earlier in March over C&D so I think he's in with a shout here.
14:30 Caroline Dolehide vs Jelena Ostapenko

Jelena Ostapenko

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.30

Win

15

It's rarely a straightforward matter when you back Ostapenko (ranked 21) as the diminutive, but fiery, 27-year-old Latvian frequently blows hot-and-cold in a match (often in the same game!). And the champion here at Roland Garros in 2017 has not since then had a long run in this event. That said, she took the title on clay in Stuttgart last month and came through a testing R1 match to attain an 8-3 record on the dirt this year. And Dolehide (ranked 67) doesn't have a great record on the red-stuff. The 26-year-old American is just 7-5 this year and 3-10 on clay in her career vs top 50 opponents (she's 0-8 vs top 20 players).
14:30 Emma Raducanu vs Iga Swiatek

Emma Raducanu 6.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

Risky one here as 4-times champ here, Swiatek can just take the wheels out from under opponents, as she did with Raducanu (ranked 41) at the Aussie Open in January, winning 6-1, 6-0. However, prior to that, Raducanu had given the 23-year-old Pole a decent test, including twice on clay. In R1, Sramkova beat this number and gave a template for testing Swiatek by hitting fast and free. If the 22-year-old Brit stays loose and goes for her shots, I think she can keep it tight, especially as Swiatek has not looked the dominant force of previous years lately.
27 May 2025
10:00 Alex De Minaur vs Laslo Djere

Over 35.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

Djere (ranked 59) has the clay smarts to at least test world #9 De Minaur in slow conditions. It’s set to be slow for the first few days in Paris, and Djere was able to compete with ADM on both occasions that they met on grass previously. Djere lost both matches but took a set in each, and here they meet on his favored clay, where he has a great record this season (17-5). ADM tends to beat the players he should on clay, but he's 0-8 vs the current top 10, whilst Djere is 3-7 in such matches. I think he'll make this a test.

Laslo Djere 5.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-50

Djere (ranked 59) has the clay smarts to at least test world #9 De Minaur in slow conditions. It’s set to be slow for the first few days in Paris, and Djere was able to compete with ADM on both occasions that they met on grass previously. Djere lost both matches but took a set in each, and here they meet on his favored clay, where he has a great record this season (17-5). ADM tends to beat the players he should on clay, but he's 0-8 vs. the current top 10, whilst Djere is 3-7 in such matches. I think he can at least keep this close.
20 May 2025
15:00 Antoine Escoffier vs Otto Virtanen

Otto Virtanen

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.22

Win

11

It is unfortunate for Escoffier (ranked 218) that the 33-year-old Frenchman’s home Slam is played on clay, as he has a terrible record on the dirt, finding his success on hard courts and at a typically much lower level. He’s 1-3 on clay at a recognized level since January 2023, the sole win against an opponent ranked #374. Virtanen (ranked 114) won their only prior head-to-head match??"also in the Qualifiers for Roland Garros??"in straight sets in 2023, and the 23-year-old Finn is in decent enough form to get the better of his opponent again here on a surface where he’s very comfortable.
11:00 Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Francisco Comesana

Francisco Comesana

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

Comesana (ranked 63) has been playing great tennis lately and looks a good price to beat an out-of-form Etcheverry (ranked 51). The 24-year-old Argentine has beaten some good players this season on clay - Zverev, Fils - and he’s some way ahead of his 25-year-old compatriot regarding main level results and stats. Etcheverry has struggled for the best part of a year now and in 2025 at main level on clay has a 39% win rate and a service/return points won total of 97. Comesana is some way ahead - a 60% win rate and a service/return points won total of 102. The gap in their respective levels right now can also be illustrated in their results against top-50 ranked opponents: Comesana has won 43% of such matches in the last year (40% on clay), Etcheverry has gone 6-16 (27% win rate) and on clay only he’s 1-6 (14% win rate). Etcheverry’s last win over a top-50 player was in January at the AO when he outlasted an injured Cobolli and last week he unsuccessfully dropped down to Challenger level, losing to Bublik, having edged past the world number 254 in 2 TBs.
1 member found this comment useful
19 May 2025
18:30 Marton Fucsovics vs Zizou Bergs

Marton Fucsovics

Win Match

50 WIN

@1.73

Win

37

I'll take a punt on Fucsovics here as the 33-year-old Hungarian is far better than his current ranking of 134 suggests (he's had a lot of injury issues) and likes the quick conditions that the 400m of altitude provides here in Geneva. Indeed, he's a former winner here (2018) and he's 8-6 on clay so far this term. Bergs (ranked 50) is in a bit of a flux - the 25-year-old Belgian has had a few injuries, has just split from his coach, and is just 2-3 on clay so far (one win vs a player ranked #374).
1 member found this comment useful
16:30 4:30 Carlisle

Comanche Warrior

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 11.00 used instead of 8.50 takenBOG

@11.00

Win

25

This unraced son of Dark Angel is trained by Richard Fahey, and cost a lot of money as a yearling. The key with this horse is to watch the betting, because if the money comes then get on! Can't do that here so tipped up in advance in the hope he's well prepped for his debut.
13:00 Jaume Munar vs Quentin Halys

Quentin Halys 1.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@2.10

Win

55

Know who leads the ATP Tour the last year regarding first serve points won? Hurkacz? Berrettini? No - at 79.9% (just ahead of world #1 Sinner on 79.6%), it's Halys (ranked 52) who's also third in terms of aces per game. The 28yo Frenchman showed his liking for altitude clay tennis last season when he made the final of Gstaad, and he’s only very narrowly behind Munar (ranked 66) in main level clay stats the last year. The 28yo Spaniard has struggled on clay lately. The vast majority of Halys’s matches were played at altitude, and he still wins 79% of his first serve points in the last year on this surface, so his first serve will still be hugely effective and key here. Halys held serve 100% of the time against Munar on indoor hard in their only senior level career meeting, Munar winning just 28% of return points. It’s hard to see Halys holding serve that often on clay, but the altitude gives him a chance here. Munar was lucky not to lose to Barrios Vera in Rome (the latter got cramp late on), lost in Madrid (altitude) in R1 to Bautista Agut, and Marrakech (altitude) to Majchrzak.
18 May 2025
16:33 4:33 Naas

Whistlejacket

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-50

Aiden O'Brien has won 2 of last 5 runnings of this race and this No Nay Never colt has some great form to make it 3 from 6. He won the Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes and the Prix Morny last season, and took the Committed Stakes (Listed) at Navan by 1/2 length on seasonal return from stablemate Ides of March who can frank the form at Newbury on Saturday. I think he can shoulder the penalty and is the one to beat.
1 member found this comment useful
17 May 2025
18:42 6:42 Doncaster

Wateen

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 9.00 used instead of 8.00 takenBOG

@9.00

Win

15

Alice Haynes' 2yo Profitable filly wasn't beaten far on racecourse debut amongst some top stable newcomers LTO in a maiden at Ayr, beaten just 3/4 length with a promising run last month. If building on that and with the experience under her belt, she should be thereabouts.
16:20 4:20 Newbury

Kingdom Come

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

With 4 places here, I think this horse is a huge price. I think we're getting some value on Clive Cox's 6yo son of Kingman as he was beaten 9 lengths in a handicap at Thirsk last time out, but that was after he was slowly away. He'd been in good form prior to that, and it's interesting he gets Rossa Ryan aboard today, who has a 30% strike rate for the trainer. He's well treated on his AW form, and I feel he has an outside chance here.
15:45 3:45 Newbury

Completely Random

Daily Racing

25 EW

@6.00

Lose

-50

Harry Charlton's 4-year-old son of Havana Grey improved again when landing a King Richard III Cup by 2 lengths off a mark of 92 at Leicester last time. That was despite having had a rather troubled passage. Looks very progressive, usually held up, but definite chance he could complete the hat trick here.

Elmonjed

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.50

Lose

-50

Elmonjed’s fine fourth at Newmarket last time out is very smart sprint handicap form and William Haggas' 4yo son of Blue Point likes fast ground, which he will get at HQ today. Everything in his favour, headgear back on, big chance here.
13:30 1:30 Navan

True Love

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@1.50

Lose

-50

This No Nay Never filly showed plenty of promise when second in a Listed race on her racecourse debut, the fact she was entered at that level for her first run an indication of what she's felt capable of at home. She's a full-sister to Truly Enchanting (6f G2 winner) and half-sister to Lily Pond (9f G2 winner) so there should be plenty more to come with that experience edge, and looks the one to beat here.
13:25 1:25 Newbury

Ides Of March

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.20

Lose

-50

The O'Brien team continue in a relentless manner and this Wootton Bassett colt looks to have a big future for the top trainer/jockey combination around right now. He got within 1/2 length of top class stablemate Whistlejacket (also running later) on his reappearance and will find the quick ground to his liking here. Top rated.

Symbol Of Honour

Daily Racing

25 EW

@6.00

Win

150

Charlie Appleby's 3yo son of Havana Grey was below par when beaten 7 1/4 lengths in the King Charles II Stakes (Listed) over 7f at Newmarket LTO, where he failed to stay. Had been highly progressive in Dubai before that and has an experience edge over his rivals here. Dropped back to his 6f trip (was not beaten far in Coventry last year), he's a big player.
12:50 12:50 Newbury

Kings Gambit

Daily Racing

26 EW

@4.00

Lose

-52

Harry Charlton's 4yo son of Saxon Warrior won the London Gold Cup on this card last year. Then ran some big races in strong renewals of the Hampton Court and Great Voltigeur on favorable fast ground. That really suggested that he would be capable at the top level. With further improvement expected on the back of a gelding operation and a solid run in Qatar (a result franked by both Rebel's Romance and The Foxes - who finished ahead that day - both winning in the last 10 days), he really should be right there at the close.
16 May 2025
13:55 1:55 Newbury

Newfangled

Daily Racing

29 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 5.00 used instead of 4.00 takenBOG

@5.00

Lose

-6

The Portman team have started the season well, and this 4-year-old New Bay gelding won a handicap by a neck off a mark of 64 at Lingfield last time out. Although yet to win on turf, the four-year-old has run well in defeat on numerous occasions, and recent all-weather performances suggest that he has gone to a new level since last running on this surface, winning 4 of his last 8 runs. Has a very decent jockey booking for this apprentice's race and should be bang there.
15 May 2025
16:18 4:18 York

Tropical Storm

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 5.00 used instead of 3.75 takenBOG

@5.00

Win

125

I think Andrew Balding's 3yo colt is better than his reappearance run. He is just 1lb shy of market rival Aesterius at these weights and has the benefit of that run, and a fair enough one, in the Palace House at Newmarket. He wasn’t given a hard time of it at all there ??" he was ridden from off the pace, when he is normally on it ??" and I would anticipate more urgency and a prominent ride from this course and distance winner.
15:13 3:13 York

See The Fire

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.50

Win

75

Andrew Balding's 4yo See The Stars filly ran as if in need of the run on her seasonal return to action at Sandown LTO in the Gordon Richards, but she'd posted several creditable efforts in defeat at the top level last year. So I think a return to the scene of her last success and the benefit of that run should see her go very well here, rated well clear of her (male) rivals.
14:42 2:42 York

Sisyphean

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@8.00

Win

10

Kevin Ryan’s very lightly raced 4yo Dubawi colt is clearly not the easiest to train and has been off since finishing down the field here in October (soft ground over 10f possibly most unsuitable!). But he'd won well over C&D last July and was a very good fourth at Goodwood in August. Tom Eaves normally rides, so the booking of Ryan Moore certainly looks interesting indeed.
14:10 2:10 York

Jm Jungle

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@7.50

Win

7

A highly competitive affair but I'll stay with this 5yo son of Bungle Inthejungle who only found the remarkably tough and consistent (and re-opposing!) American Affair a bit too strong LTO on his reappearance run at Musselburgh. The turnaround in weights means the selection is now 4lbs to the good here and should be bang there.
13:55 1:55 Salisbury

Thunderous Love

Daily Racing

25 EW

@3.50

Lose

-50

The Portman yard has been in good form, and this 4yo filly is one of those bringing success, with wins in her last two starts (with two subsequent winners coming out of her penultimate start). She's been raised another 3 lbs for her win LTO at Nottingham, but that's negated by a 3-pound claimer, and she should be competitive again.
14 May 2025
19:30 Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Zverev

Lorenzo Musetti 2.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@1.85

Win

43

I give Musetti (ranked 9) a shot here. The 23yo Italian is in great form, especially on clay where he's 13-2 this term (the 2 defeats to world #3 Alcaraz and to Jack Draper in Madrid). He's won the last 2 meetings with world #2 Zverev (including on clay at Roland Garros in last year's Olympics) and he's 6-6 vs top 10 players in the past 12 months. Zverev has looked a bit "leggy" recently, and with partisan home support behind him, I think Musetti at least goes close.
14:00 Jack Draper vs Carlos Alcaraz

Over 21.50

Total Games

50 WIN

@1.80

Lose

-50

The head-to-head between these two is pretty close (it's 3-2 to world #3 Alcaraz), but the 22yo Spaniard has not been in scintillating form on the clay so far this term (taken to a decider yesterday by Khachanov). Draper (ranked 5) is in very good form. I'm not sure the 23yo Brit is physically able to win this over what could be a drawn-out affair, but he's serving well here, and Alcaraz's return numbers are not stellar here. It should still be reasonably hot (thus fast) when this is played, so I'll go Overs.
13 May 2025
14:00 Jannik Sinner vs Francisco Cerundolo

Francisco Cerundolo 4.50

Games Won

50 WIN

@1.73

Win

37

I'll take this head start with Cerundolo (ranked 18) here. The 26yo Argentine is in good form and has beaten World #1 Sinner at the Foro Italico before. In 2023, Cerundolo was a very comfortable winner over the 23yo Italian in the end that day. Sinner’s return to the tour in Rome has been a very comfortable one so far, facing two underpowered opponents, the latter of which, De Jong, was also injured. Cerundolo is a big step up as the latter has now won 7 of his last 13 matches against top-10 players. The losses came against Alcaraz (3 times), Ruud, De Minaur (on hard in Australia), and Djokovic (5 sets at last year’s French Open). This match will show us exactly where Sinner is at, having missed the last few months of the season, but I'll take a shot here.

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