ARQ007

It's quick here in Madrid (650m+ altitude), which gives Medvedev a good chance. Let's not forget that Medvedev is a M1000 winner on clay (Rome) - the best win for Ruud (ranked 15) on any surface is 1 ATP 500 title. Their H2H (though several years old) favours Medvedev, 3-0 over Ruud, with a service/return points won total lead of 116 to 84 across the 3 matches. The 29yo Russian's first serve has excelled in this matchup. He's won 88% of first serve points and held 93% of the time, whilst the 26yo Norwegian has only won 24% of return points and held serve just 66% of the time. Stats for this season show Medvedev has played the better tennis: service/return points won total in 2023 at main level of 107, Ruud on 103. The other interesting factor here is performance level against the best players in the world - Medvedev leads the way as against the current top-10 on all surfaces Ruud has a 27% win rate and service/return points won total of 92, Medvedev has a 55% win rate and a 101 total. So, for me, there’s enough doubt about Ruud in matches against 'top' players.

Galfi (ranked 121) is very much in form. The 26-year-old from Hungary has won 12 of her last 13 matches, all on clay (as here), with a title and a runner-up medal from two lower-level WTA events. She's 14-4 on clay in the last 12 months versus players outside the top 100. Maristany Zuleta De Reales (ranked 196) is also in decent form. The 26-year-old Spaniard is 10-2 on the dirt in 2023, but she's been playing generally at lower-level events. She's just 3-4 in her career in main-level WTA events.

Gavin Cromwell's mare is rated a fair ways ahead of her rivals and has some very good form to her name - she travelled well when runner up and beaten just 0.5 length in the Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) over 2m1f at Cheltenham latest - she arguably should've won that race. She's also won the Cesarewitch Trial on flat, is a slick jumper and by a long way the one to beat here.

Willie Mullins' 5yo is a winner of two Group 1s (including the JCB Triumph at the Cheltenham Festival last year). Although he raced freely, he was still just 0.75 lengths third in the Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) at Cheltenham last month. He really should've won that day but for awful jumping. He's a top-class horse and should reverse the form with the re-opposing Only By Night if that jumping holds up.

Gavin Cromwell's 7yo mare was only beaten 0.75 lengths in the Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1) at Cheltenham LTO, nabbed late on by a strong stayer. She's been steadily progressive and, of course, gets weight from her main rivals, including the favorite today whom she beat in that Festival race.

City have their 'mojo' back of late and can still get the runner-up spot in the table. I'm sure they'd love to usurp Arsenal from that spot. Wolves are definitely 'in form' having won 5 straight, but the form of those wins is not much to write home about. I'll take the reigning champs to keep winning.

Porto are just fourth in Primeira Liga and have slipped a couple of times lately, but have been excellent at home this season where they have won 11 of their 15 matches (W11, D3, L1), outscoring opponents by 33 goals to 10. Visitors Moreirense are 10th and have won just 3 of their away games this season (W3, D2, L10). Porto are pretty good defensively and Moreirense just don't score often enough.

Bradford are third in the table and need a win here to ensure they stay in that last automatic promotion place. Not only that, but the Bantams have the best home record in League 2 with 16 wins and just 2 losses from their 22 home games so far (W16, D4, L2). Fleetwood are 14th with no hope of going up or fear of going down, and they've just 2 wins in their last 6 games. They have lost 11 of their 22 road games this term (W8, D3, L11).

Things look to be back on the up for Southend as a consortium led by an Aussie businessman just completed the takeover of a club that was in the second tier in 2007 (when they also reached the League Cup QFs). Manager Kevin Maher has worked wonders during his time in charge, navigating a transfer embargo and spells where he and his players were not paid. Despite all the off-field noise, Maher guided the club to a ninth-placed finish last term ??" if not for a 10-point deduction, they’d have made the play-offs and finished sixth. That performance was built on defensive solidity - no side conceded fewer than their 45 goals (20 less than title winners Chesterfield). Only 21 conceded at Roots Hall, the lowest total in the league, and they will again try to turn their home ground into a fortress. The club reported last week that they're on course to sell more season tickets than since that 2006/07 season in the Championship.” So with positivity all around, some shrewd acquisitions and the foundations to mount a serious challenge at the top of the table I think they can go well.