ARQ007

Cerundolo (ranked 21) is 14-5 on hard courts in the past 12 months vs opponents ranked outside the top 20. The 27-year-old Argentine has a decent record here in Paris, having made the R16 here the past 2 seasons. Kecmanovic (ranked 53), by contrast, has not done well here. The 26-year-old Serbian has never gotten past R2 and only twice past R1 in 6 attempts. And he's just 8-11 on hard courts in the past 12 months vs top 50 players (1-5 vs top 20 opposition).

At evens, I have to take a shot at Bergs (ranked 41) here. The 26-year-old Belgian loves a big stage, and an upset is possible here. Bergs has the Davis Cup in his sights, so he won’t see this as an end-of-season week. Meanwhile, world #2 Sinner put a big effort in to win in Austria (it's very close to where he’s from in northern Italy, and that title meant a lot to Sinner). I wonder if he’ll be so invested this week in Paris, where he’s 1-2 win/loss. With the Tour Finals at home in Italy in a couple of weeks, will this be a priority? Given Sinner prioritized Vienna, what has he got left for Paris? He was struggling with cramps in the Vienna final against Zverev, and while he’s had a few days off, the accumulated fatigue may catch up with him in these very slow conditions. Bergs took a couple of weeks off after struggling in his home event of Brussels and should be much fresher. He has a decent record indoors at the main level in the last 12 months.