ARQ007

I just feel Tabilo (ranked 38) is teh better player in better form right now. The 26yo Chilean is 7-5 on clay this season with a Final appearance at hoem in Santiago, Chile (which is at 570m of altitude, so similar to the 600m here in Madrid) and he's 36-14 on clay in the past 12 months vs players ranked 50+. Cobolli (ranked 64) is just 1-3 on teh dirt so far in 2024, the 21yo Italian is also 0-4 in his career on clay vs top 50 opposition.

I'm honestly a little surprised that the odds for Tsurenko (ranked 41) are this big, as the 34yo from Ukraine is not bad on clay (16-9 since 2022, 12-2 vs players ranked 50+ in that span). Although her record here in Madrid isn't great (4-8) she's had some tough assignments - Kerber, Kvitova, Pliskova (in their heydays). Eala (ranked 170) is not a player I know much about but the 18yo from the Philippines is just 1-8 in her career so far vs top 100 opponents, that win vs Errani on a fast-ish hard court in Miami (the Italian veteran's worst nightmare!). With her experience I would expect Tsurenko to take this one.

These two have played just twice before, both on clay, but crucially the last time was here in Madrid in the Challenger event just last year when Cachn (ranked 91) won in a decider in a tight match. The 29yo Argentine is in poor form (winless in 2024 - 0-11, 0-6 on clay) but he clearly likes conditions here (he made the R16 in this event, losing in 3 tight sets to eventual finalist Struff, last year). Ofner (ranked 45) is also not exactly in great form, just 2-6 on clay in '24 and hasn't strung more than 1 win together since the first week January. But the 27yo Austrian has shown glimpses and will feel he has a chance here with Cachin in such poor form. With neither player convincing right now this could easily see-saw, so I like Overs.

Taking a shot on Cachn (ranked 91) here who's won the first set in both the prior H2Hs with Ofner (ranked 45) including in teh Challenger event here last year. The 29yo Argentine is in poor form but I think he knows this is the point he needs to turn that around.

At Evens I'll take Cachn (ranked 91) with a head start here as the 29yo Argentine is surely going to hit some form soon on the red-clay. To say he's in poor form is an understatement, he's winless in 2024 (0-11, 0-6 on clay) but he clearly likes conditions here in Madrid as he won the Challenger event here last year and made R16 in this event, losing in 3 tight sets to eventual finalist Struff. He beat Ofner (ranked 45) en route to that Challenger title here last year and the 27yo Austrian is not exactly in great form, just 2-6 on clay in '24 and hasn't strung more than 1 win together since the first week January.

I just don't see Gasquet (now ranked 116) as viable on clay any more, not that the 37yo Frenchman ever really was tbh. The legs are just not there any more and despite Sonego (ranked 52) not being in the greatest form, the 28yo Italian really should have too much for "the Gas man" here.

Machac (ranked 50) has been in decent form this season and the 23yo Czech has a decent record on clay (22-13 since Jan 2022, 3-3 vs top 100 players) and beat promising newcomer Shang in Barcelona before having to retire due to an illnes. He's had a week to recover and in Ruusuvuori (ranked 70) faces an opponent in less than stellar form (he's lost 3 straight matches) and who lost to Machac in their only prior H2H, last year indoors in Vienna (in what would have been favoured conditions for the 25yo Finn).

At Evens I have to shoot at teh Overs here, largely because Auger Aliassime (ranked 35) is seemingly unable to "win easy" against better opposition. Against top 100 opponents in the last 12 months, the 23yo Canadian has won just 6 of 30 such matches in Under 21.5 games. Nishioka (ranked 78) is not in great form and the 28yo from Japan is not known for his clay prowess but if he's going to go well it'll be in fast conditions (600m+ of altitude) here in Madrid and in his 5 matches vs FAA (he leads 3-2) they've played 3 TBs and one 7-5 set. His awkward looping leftie shots clearly cause FAA issues and I can see this being a tough one for teh favourite to close.

With this many games I'll have a go with Nishioka (ranked 78), largely because - as per my Games Total tip (see separate write up) - Auger Aliassime (ranked 35) is seemingly unable to "win easy" against better opponents. When playing top 100 opponents in the last 12 months, the 23yo Canadian has won just 6 of 30 such matches in Under 21.5 games. His 28yo Japanese opponent isn't in the best form and is not known for his clay prowess but if he's going to go well it'll be in fast conditions (600m+ of altitude) here in Madrid and he leads the career H2H vs FAA 3-2. His awkward looping leftie shots clearly cause FAA issues and he won their only prior meeting on clay at Roland Garros in 2020 in straight sets.

I think O'Connell (ranked 67) is often under rated and the 29yo Aussie tested Taylor Fritz last year here in Madrid in his only prior visit to this event. He's already beaten Arnaldi (ranked 36) on clay in 2022 in the SFs of the Split challenger in straight sets. Now, Arnaldi is clearly better now (he was ranked #347 then) but it's not that long ago and we know the O'Connell serve is a huge threat - one of the top 50 in the men's game, according to ATP stats. It's fast here in Madrid (altitude) and we know that O'Connell has played a TB in 14 of his 25 matches vs top 50 opponents in the last year. Arnaldi has played just once here in Madrid, last year and the 23yo Italian played 3 deciding sets in his 5 matches (2 in Qualies) and a TB set.

Unusual to see (certainly at present) a Skelton horse at double figure odds, given the yard is in good form and the Trainer is still (wistfully, perhaps) chasing the trainers crown, but this one is making his chase debut here. However, that's clearly factored into the price. But this 6yo Night Wish mare won her only Irish PtP and has made the frame in a trio of hurdles this term (third of 7 on handicap debut at Fakenham, 16f) earlier this month). It's interesting she's put into a handicap on chase debut, so taking a punt with 4 places on offer.

Michelsen (ranked 70) may not have much of a clay pedigree, the 19yo American is just 5-6 on the dirt since January last year, and his experience on European red clay is pretty limited at this level. That said he took a set off of Garin in Munich (in a TB) last week in slower conditions than here in Madrid, where thanks to the altitude it's fairly quick. The Michelsen serve is a huge weapon and I doubt Fonseca (ranked 242) has faced many like it, especially in these faster conditions. The 17yo Brazilian is a talent but has limited experience at this level and is very hit-and-miss (as you may expect from a 17yo!), This match could swing several times so i like Overs here.