tadley
7
Estimated Prizes
this month
£35
Estimated Prize money
this month
tadley's Tips History
03 May 2026
22:45 Cadillac Championship
Chris Gotterup
25 EW
@+2200
Open
0
Chris Gotterup had a great start to the year, mopping up both the Phoenix Open and the Sony Open in Hawaii. Although his form has tailed off a tad??"24th, 25th, and 6th in his last three starts is hardly disastrous. This venue looks far more up his street, though. The key to winning here is simply hitting it long and being consistent with the putter. Gotterup is one of the longest strikers on the tour, so he should be vying for another win.
Gary Woodland
25 EW
@+4000
Open
0
This is a monster of a course with five long par 5s, one being 667 yds. Even the par 4s are long, with six of the eight being over 450 yds. It's therefore an obvious advantage to hit the ball long here, and what's more, it's not a particularly tricky course. That makes Gary Woodland of interest, with only Potgieter hitting the ball longer on average. He brings strong form into this with a solid 8th last time out and a win at the Houston Open in late March.
20:00 Las Palmas v Valladolid
Las Palmas
50 WIN
@-113
Win
44
Valladolid haven't been travelling well, with 5 defeats and two draws from their last 7 away games. Las Palmas are going for promotion and come into this having won their last 5 home games, keeping 4 clean sheets. They are clearly the stronger outfit.
19:15 LA Dodgers @ STL Cardinals
LA Dodgers
Money Line
50 WIN
@-135
Win
37
Dodgers are a big-hitting side, but their bats have been cold of late. That won't last forever, and I expect them to come good in this one. Dustin May pitches for the Cardinals and has a 5.28 ERA this season. That isn't a real surprise, as his last two seasons saw him record 4.96 and 5.40 ERAs. What I like about this matchup is that he used to be with the Dodgers, so they will know exactly what to expect from him.
19:00 Aston Villa v Tottenham
Aston Villa
50 WIN
@+114
Lose
-50
Spurs got a crucial win away at Wolves last time, ending a run of 15 games without a win, having lost 9 of them. As much as they need a win, it looks a tall order to win at Villa. Villa are strong at home with the fourth-best home record in the league. Spurs simply lack the quality to win there.
Over 10.00
Total Corners
50 WIN
@-124
Push
0
Spurs have been winning a fair few corners of late, with their last 7 totals being 8, 6, 4, 13, 6, 7, and 5. Villa average 5.2 corners per game. With this likely to be an open game, I see this at least reaching 10.
18:40 SF Giants @ TB Rays
TB Rays
Money Line
50 WIN
@-129
Win
38
Matz pitches for the Rays. He has a 4-1 record this season. His ERA is 4.31, but I think he's better than that ??" his last two-season ERAs were 3.05 and 2.08. Tyler Mahle starts for the Giants; he has been wildly inconsistent. He's had two shutouts, but in his other three games he conceded 18 earned runs in 14 innings of work. The Rays have won 10 of 14 at home, so I give them the edge.
18:35 BAL Orioles @ NY Yankees
NY Yankees
Money Line
50 WIN
@-243
Win
20
Orioles have three pitchers sidelined with injuries, so they turn to Trey Gibson from the minors, who makes his debut. I don't see it going well in a stadium where batters perform well. The Yankees have a quality pitching lineup and will roll out Max Fried, who has been a top pitcher for many years. The Yankees are 10-1 against the Orioles recently and should cruise to victory.
18:03 Miami Grand Prix
Lando Norris
Win Race
25 EW
@+800
Open
0
He may start only 4th, but I don't see Norris being off the podium. He's shown good form this season, and the McLaren looks the best car this season. It may be tough to pass his teammate for the win, but over the long distance I wouldn't rule it out.
18:00 Miami Grand Prix
Lando Norris - Yes
Podium Finish
50 WIN
@-109
Open
0
Norris starts 4th, and it doesn't take a huge leap of faith to think he can climb one place. The McLaren is the quickest car this year, and he will be desperate for a good finish to limit the points deficit to his teammate.
Oliver Bearman - Yes
Points Finish
50 WIN
@+110
Open
0
Oliver Bearman hasn't excelled in qualifying but has been a different beast in the race. He did crash out last time, but in his first two starts he finished 7th and a fine 5th. He starts 12th, and moving up two places looks well within his capabilities.
Fernando Alonso
Fastest Lap
50 WIN
@+25000
Open
0
Alonso will have precious little to race for being near the back of the grid. However, he will always give it his all. If he has a sniff at the fastest lap, he will go for it. Aston Martin have a habit of making late pit stops, and this is a huge advantage in getting the fastest lap.
Lewis Hamilton - No
Top 6 Finish
50 WIN
@+250
Open
0
Hamilton starts 6th, but with Piastri starting just behind him, holding on to it may be tough. It looks 50/50 to me, so odds of 3.5 appeal.
17:30 Real Sociedad B v Burgos
Burgos (AH) 0.00
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@-133
Push
0
Real Sociedad B have been in awful form, with just one point from their last seven games. Beating promotion-chasing Burgos therefore looks far from easy. Burgos were on an eight-game unbeaten streak, winning six before losing to fourth-placed Castellón. Last time they had a solid draw against second-placed Coruña and look capable of at least getting a draw.
17:00 Juventus v Verona
Juventus (AH) -1.75
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@-124
Lose
-50
With Lecce winning, Verona are now relegated, which had looked likely for a long time. It's been an awful campaign for them, with just three wins all season. Juventus are just two points ahead of Como for the last Champions League spot and can't afford to slip up in games like this. Juventus have already beaten the other two sides in the bottom three 4-0 and 5-0 at home and look capable of doing likewise.
16:45 Turkish Airlines Open
Darius van Driel
25 EW
@+10000
Win
475
Darius van Driel's best performances have come on tree-lined fairways. It's little wonder, as he always ranks high in the driving accuracy rankings. His one win on the DP Tour came at the tree-lined Kenya Open, and it's not the only time he's performed well on courses such as this. He was a solid 8th last time, so he carries momentum into this.
David Puig
50 WIN
@+1100
Lose
-50
Liv star David Puig tries his luck at the Turkish Open, and in fairness he is clearly the best player in it. He warmed up for this with a 2nd to Rahm in Mexico City, and if he produces his game he is surely the one to beat.
16:25 4:25 Hamilton
Ellies De Vega
Daily Racing
25 EW
@+600
Win
5
After 182 days off, Ellies De Vega returned and outperformed its odds with a fine third at 50-1. It didn't really see the race out, weakening in the final furlong. But with that run blowing the cobwebs off, it could go better today. It now drops a class to a level 6 handicap and looks fairly weighted off 9-0, receiving weight from all but a couple of outsiders.
16:00 Armagh v Down
Armagh
FT Result
50 WIN
@-277
Open
0
Down caused quite an upset when defeating Donegal, but I don't see lightning striking twice. They got everything right tactically, running hard and chucking plenty of men forward aggressively. Armagh will be ready for them and won't roll over like Donegal did. Armagh attack with purpose and should have the nous to win this.
16:00 Fana W vs Molde W
Fana (W) 1.50
Match Handicap
50 WIN
@-117
Open
0
Fana caused a huge upset by winning the first game. But not just winning ??" they went to Molde and won by 14. I doubt very much they can replicate that, but putting 14 points on Molde shows that they aren't a side to be underestimated. Now at home, I expect another spirited performance.
16:00 Nantes vs Chambery Savoie
Over 61.50
Points Total
50 WIN
@-128
Win
39
Two good free-scoring sides, so I'm expecting a tally in the 60s today. When they met at Chambéry Savoie it ended in a 34-all draw. I'd expect Nantes to prevail being at home, but they may have to work hard to do so.
16:00 Peshawar Zalmi vs Hyderabad Kingsmen T20
Peshawar Zalmi
Win Match
50 WIN
@-136
Open
0
Zalmi have dominated the league, winning 9 of 10, with their top order doing most of the lifting. Babar Azam has been particularly impressive, scoring two centuries. Hyderabad look an ordinary side on paper, but you can't knock what they've been doing. I think they simply look second-best, and Zalmi bat second, which has been a major plus on these wickets.
15:30 Man Utd v Liverpool
Man Utd
50 WIN
@+129
Win
65
Liverpool's attacking threat has taken a big blow with both Mohamed Salah and Hugo Ekitike out with injuries. Not that they've been particularly good on the road anyway, with only 7 wins from 17. Man United are strong at home, winning 6 of their last 7. I give them the edge.
Benjamin Sesko
Anytime Goalscorer
50 WIN
@+162
Win
81
Benjamin Šeško has been struggling to start games, with him mostly playing bit parts. That hasn't stopped him netting 10 times this season, though. He seems to have established himself in the starting lineup now, with him scoring last time against Brentford. I like his chances today.
Over 10.00
Total Corners
50 WIN
@-113
Lose
-50
Man United have been racking up the corners at home of late, with them winning 7, 11, 6, 7, and 7 in their last five games. Liverpool games are the fourth highest in the league for corners, with Liverpool averaging 6 per game. The reverse fixture at Anfield had 13 corners, so I like the over.
15:15 Getafe v Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
50 WIN
@+100
Lose
-50
Rayo Vallecano have the second leg of the Conference League semi next week against Strasbourg, with them leading 1-0, and surely that must be their priority. They have struggled away in the league anyway, with just 12 points all season. Only goal difference separates Getafe from a European place, so their motivation should be a lot higher than Rayo's.
15:00 Hull FC v Toulouse Olympique
Hull FC -22.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@+110
Open
0
Having watched York Knights rip through the Toulouse defence at will for a 24-point win last time, I worry about Toulouse defensively. Hull's controversial decision to part ways with head coach John Cartwright hasn't affected their on-field performances. On the contrary, they put in arguably their best performance of the season last time when blitzing Castleford 50-10 away. If they bring that intensity today, they can distance Toulouse quite easily.
15:00 Rochdale v Scunthorpe
Rochdale
50 WIN
@-133
Win
38
Rochdale finished on 105 points, and it would be a travesty for them if they failed to get promoted. It may not be straightforward against Scunthorpe, who have drawn both games with Rochdale this season. However, Rochdale have the meanest defence in the league, and Scunthorpe have conceded more goals than any other side in the top 10. So I think Rochdale just do enough.
14:40 2:40 Hamilton
Square Necker
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@-110
Win
45
After changing trainers, Square Necker ran a fine second to Constitution Hill last time. That was in a Class 2 Novice Stakes, and at 9-2 it should have every chance of going one better.
14:00 Bournemouth v Crystal Palace
Draw
50 WIN
@+320
Lose
-50
Bournemouth are unbeaten in 14, but they have been very drawish, drawing 8 of them. Palace are playing OK, with their only losses in the last 7 being to Man United and Liverpool. The game between these two earlier in the season ended all square, and I suspect so will this.
Over 10.00
Total Corners
50 WIN
@+100
Lose
-50
Bournemouth can rack up the corners on their day, as shown by the 12 they won last time against Leeds. Palace haven't been a great corner-winning side, but last time at Liverpool they won 8. The reverse fixture between these two went over, and I think this can as well.
Over 4.00
Total Cards
50 WIN
@-113
Lose
-50
Rob Jones is the ref who seemingly loves to dish out the cards, with 16 of his 27 games seeing him dish out 4 or more, and 12 times showing 5 or more. I don't see him holding back against two sides who pick up their fair share of cards. Palace are averaging just over 2 yellows per game plus a couple of reds, and Bournemouth have 76 cards this season. So I'd expect this to at least see 4.
14:00 HSV Hamburg vs TVB Stuttgart
Tie
Money Line
50 WIN
@+750
Lose
-50
Hamburg are a terribly inconsistent side, struggling to put two back-to-back wins together. As a result, they haven't won two on the trot since October. They won last time, and despite being strong favourites, they may struggle to shake Stuttgart off. Stuttgart lost to leaders Magdeburg last time but prior to that were unbeaten in seven, drawing five of them. I think they can claim another draw.
14:00 Kildare v Westmeath
Westmeath
FT Result
50 WIN
@+162
Open
0
Luke Loughlin is out for Westmeath with a hamstring injury. He's a big miss, but Westmeath are still a good side nonetheless, with a whole host of goal scorers in the side. They attack with purpose and energy and look capable of winning as underdogs.
13:00 Celta Vigo v Elche
Elche
50 WIN
@+375
Lose
-50
Celta Vigo are going for a European spot and Elche are fighting to avoid relegation. They were 15 points apart just three games ago, but now it's down to just six. That is because Celta have lost three on the trot while Elche have won their last three. Celta Vigo have just four points from their last seven games, including a home loss to struggling Alavés when they conceded four. Elche have climbed four points away from the relegation spots. They bring the stronger recent form.
13:00 Odense BK v Silkeborg IF
Silkeborg IF (AH) 0.75
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@+101
Win
51
Silkeborg had an awful regular season but have performed better in the relegation league with three wins and a draw from their last four. They have performed well against Odense, winning two and drawing one of the three meetings this season. That's now five games unbeaten against them. I can see them getting something out of this.
12:30 Carlisle v Boreham Wood
Draw
50 WIN
@+275
Win
138
Carlisle finished third on 95 points, so will be expected to win this. However, Boreham Wood are a strong side and are unbeaten against Carlisle this season, winning at home and drawing away. They've won four on the trot, keeping a clean sheet in all, so I can see them getting the draw.
12:00 Hibernian v Celtic
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@-166
Win
30
Celtic are involved in a three-way battle for the title and can't afford to drop points, sitting three points behind Hearts. This looks far from straightforward as Hibs won 2-1 at Celtic Park in July. I think if Celtic want to win this they may well need a couple, so I like the Over.
11:00 Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders T20
Kolkata Knight Riders
Win Match
50 WIN
@+129
Win
65
Sunrisers have always been a good betting side but haven't impressed with the ball. KKR are on a roll after winning their last two. Chasing appears to give teams a significant edge, so Sunrisers' decision to bat first looks like a mistake.
07:05 Cronulla Sharks v Wests Tigers
Wests Tigers 7.50
Handicap (2-way)
50 WIN
@+100
Lose
-50
Sharks are a very capable side going forward but are suspect defensively. They have conceded far too many points, such as 46 to the Cowboys, 34 to the Roosters and 38 to the Dolphins. Tigers are outperforming expectations and are looking like an above-average side. They've won 5 of 7, with their two losses being by 2 and 4 points. I'd expect them to at least keep this close.
01:00 Oscar Duarte Jurado v Angel Daniel Fierro Barrera
Oscar Duarte Jurado
Win Fight
50 WIN
@-909
Win
5
Oscar Duarte Jurado is a solid professional. Although he has fought largely average fighters, he has done little wrong. Angel Daniel Fierro Barrera has lost 3 of his last 4 bouts, all to opponents significantly weaker than Jurado, so I don't see an upset.
Subtotal626
02 May 2026
21:10 HOU Astros @ BOS Red Sox
Under 9.00
Game Totals
50 WIN
@-114
Push
0
Spencer Arrighetti didn't impress last season but has turned that around this time with a series of solid outings. He has pitched 18 innings for just 4 earned runs. Last time against the Yankees was particularly impressive, with him going 7 innings for one earned run and 8 strikeouts. With the Red Sox averaging a shade over 3 runs per game, he should keep them quiet. Early pitches for the Astros, who have also been solid with a 2.84 ERA. As long as the bullpens don't perform poorly, I like the under.
21:00 Miami Grand Prix
Lando Norris
Fastest Qualifier
50 WIN
@+200
Lose
-50
Lando Norris has impressed this weekend and has already wrapped up the sprint race. It looks a straight shootout between him and his teammate Antonelli, but on the evidence of this weekend Norris has the edge.
20:00 Huddersfield Giants v Warrington Wolves
Over 44.50
Total Points
50 WIN
@-109
Lose
-50
Warrington look a decent side and are averaging 33.8 points per game. Huddersfield have conceded more points than any other side and look capable of capitulating during games. However, there have been two exceptions when they beat York 34??"14 and upset Wigan away 34??"16. If they bring that level, they can certainly add to the scoring.
19:20 ARI Diamondbacks @ CHI Cubs
CHI Cubs
Money Line
50 WIN
@-161
Win
31
Ryne Nelson pitches for the D-backs, who can't be in a good place right now. Against the Blue Jays he was hauled off after one inning after conceding eight runs. Although he fared better next time against the Padres, he still allowed six earned runs in five innings. The Cubs tend to prefer hitting tight-handed pitchers, so he may not enjoy tonight. Imanaga pitches for the Cubs, who in his first four games gave up just three earned runs over 24 innings. Admittedly, he didn't do as well last time against the Dodgers, but the Dodgers are quality hitters.
19:00 Dublin v Louth
Louth
FT Result
50 WIN
@+137
Lose
-50
Dublin snuck past Wicklow, and if Wicklow were more clinical in attack it could be a different story. Louth, unlike Wicklow, should take their chances. They attack with purpose and look capable of winning this.
18:00 Catalan Dragons v Leigh Leopards
Catalan Dragons
To Win
50 WIN
@-175
Lose
-50
Leigh don't travel well, with their only win from five being over promoted York Knights. A trip to France therefore looks a bit daunting. Catalans are always strong at home, and this season have won four of five, including wins over Hull KR and Warrington. Although Leigh have done well recently in France, I don't see them winning this time.
17:30 Arsenal v Fulham
Arsenal
50 WIN
@-208
Win
24
Fulham aren't far off a European spot, but their away form isn't helping. They have just one win from their last eight games, losing four of them. Arsenal probably need to win every game to be champions, and even then it may not be enough. They really can't afford to slip up in games like this.
Over 10.00
Total Corners
50 WIN
@-111
Lose
-50
With the title maybe going down to goal difference, Arsenal have to go for it for the full 90 minutes. They are usually a decent corner side at home anyway and have won 7, 8, and 10 in their last three home games. Fulham normally can be relied upon to win corners, with them winning three or more in all but one away game. I can therefore see them chipping in.
17:30 Ulster v Exeter Chiefs
Ulster
To Win
50 WIN
@-175
Win
28
Ulster hammered Exeter when they last met last year, beating them 52-24 in the European Champions Cup. Although I don't expect that margin of victory, I foresee the same outcome. Exeter have failed to win their two away games in the Challenge Cup group stage and just snuck past Benetton in a close game last time. Ulster had a stunning 17-point win over La Rochelle and are strong at home.
17:00 Derry v Monaghan
Monaghan 4.50
Handicap
50 WIN
@-136
Win
37
Derry seem to be peaking at the right time and had a routine win over Antrim. However, Monaghan looks a far tougher game. Monaghan, too, seem to be improving and are a capable side that will give as much as they get. Winning may be tough, but keeping within 4 looks doable.
17:00 Miami Grand Prix Sprint
Kimi Antonelli
Win Race
50 WIN
@+225
Lose
-50
There looks little between the two McLaren drivers, and if anything Antonelli has impressed more. Norris started on pole after beating Antonelli by 0.222, but there really shouldn't be this much discrepancy in the prices.
17:00 SK Brann v Fredrikstad
SK Brann
50 WIN
@-161
Win
31
Brann had a stunning win over unbeaten leaders Tromsø last time, beating them 5-0, with winger Ingason scoring an 18-minute first-half hat-trick. If they bring that level today against Fredrikstad, who have lost two of their three away games (their win was over winless Aalesund), they should be strong favorites.
15:00 AFC Wimbledon v Huddersfield
Draw
50 WIN
@+275
Lose
-50
Huddersfield took a 4-1 pounding by Mansfield at home last time and have just one win from their last nine. They have been very drawish, though, with seven of those games ending as draws. Wimbledon were in awful form, picking up just one point from nine games. However, they won away at Wigan last time to guarantee League One football last season. With nothing on the line, the draw appeals.
15:00 Barrow v Newport County
Newport County
50 WIN
@+150
Win
75
Two wins from their last three have lifted Newport out of the relegation zone. They can't rest on their laurels, though, as they can still be leapfrogged by Harrogate and Crawley. A draw may not be enough, so they really need to win this. Barrow aren't relegated yet, but they need to win and for Crawley and Harrogate to lose, and they need an eight-goal swing with Crawley. I doubt they really believe; they are an inferior side to Newport.
15:00 Bolton v Luton
Luton
50 WIN
@+154
Win
77
It's doubtful if a draw would be good enough to lift Luton into the play-offs, and even a win might not be enough. Although Bolton are a good side, they are safely in the play-offs and have bigger games ahead. Luton bring serious momentum into this, being unbeaten in 10 and winning 7 of their last 9.
15:00 Brentford v West Ham
Draw
50 WIN
@+300
Lose
-50
Brentford are just one point off a European spot, but a run of five games without a win has hindered their ambitions. Prior to their loss to Man United last time, they drew five on the trot. Although they are outsiders in the odds, I think they will have to settle for a draw today against a West Ham side desperate for points. West Ham have climbed out of the relegation zone with seven points from their last three games. Although they would love all three, they may have to settle for one against a solid Brentford side.
15:00 Cove Rangers v East Fife
Cove Rangers
50 WIN
@+125
Lose
-50
A massive game at the bottom, with the loser maybe having to play a relegation playoff depending on the Hamilton result. In terms of the winner, Cove look most likely. East Fife were playing solid football from August to December, winning half of their 14 games. That's a long distant memory now, though, as their form since has been awful. They have won just one of their last 11 and two of their last 19. Cove have bettered that tally in just four games, winning three of their last four.
15:00 Fleetwood Town v Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@+275
Lose
-50
MK Dons have already secured promotion but would love to go up as champions, so they will be giving this their all. They may need more than one goal to win, though, as Fleetwood have failed to score in only three home games. MK Dons have failed to score in only two away games and scored 2 or more in 15 of their 22 away matches. I think they will do enough to win this.
15:00 Gillingham v Shrewsbury
Draw
50 WIN
@+250
Lose
-50
Shrewsbury seem to go through phases of good football and poor football. At one time they lost five on the trot and at another time won five on the trot. Their last two games have ended in draws, and another wouldn't surprise me. Gillingham are odds-on favourites but are in no sort of form, with one win from their last 12. I can see both settling for a draw.
15:00 Harrogate Town v Barnet
Barnet & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@+350
Win
175
Four wins on the trot have given Barnet a slight chance of winning this, but they must win, and goal difference could be crucial. They have been banging in the goals, scoring 16 in those four games. They don't keep many clean sheets, though, with none in their last five and one in their last 10. Harrogate have won their last two, giving them a chance of survival. They've now scored in their last five, so I think they score again. But it may not be enough against a rampant Barnet.
15:00 Inverness CT v Hamilton
Hamilton
50 WIN
@+600
Lose
-50
With the two teams above them, East Fife and Cove, playing each other, a win would guarantee Hamilton's survival. However, they couldn't have had a harder game than against leaders Inverness. Inverness will be fully motivated, as a loss could see them fall out of the only automatic promotion spot. Hamilton are way better than their league position suggests, with a 21-point deduction being the reason they are in that position. They've won three on the trot coming into this and simply look better than 7.0 shots.
15:00 Leyton Orient v Burton Albion
Draw
50 WIN
@+279
Win
140
If Exeter win, Leyton Orient must also win to avoid being relegated. Winning looks tough, though, considering Orient's form. They are winless in seven, losing four of them, including to second-bottom Rotherham. Burton won't be a pushover, as they are unbeaten in five. However, they did draw four of them, and that is what I expect in this one.
15:00 Newcastle v Brighton
Brighton
50 WIN
@+162
Lose
-50
Brighton are 8 points off a Champions League spot, and with 4 games left that looks a tall order. However, they are in an automatic Europa League spot, and with plenty of teams chasing them down, getting three points today looks important. Newcastle should be safe from relegation, as they are 8 points clear. The form coming into this is quite contrasting: Newcastle have lost 4 straight, whereas Brighton have won 4 and drawn one of their last 5. They are simply looking the stronger outfit.
15:00 Northampton v Plymouth
Plymouth
50 WIN
@-227
Win
22
Northampton are long relegated and are ending the season in awful form, losing 10 straight. Plymouth, by contrast, are in fine form with just one loss from 11. They still have a chance of making the play-offs but must win this and hope other results go their way. I don't think they will slip up in this one.
15:00 Oldham v Accrington Stanley
Draw
50 WIN
@+309
Lose
-50
Oldham were in sensational form in February and March, but now that promotion is off the table their form has deteriorated badly. They are winless in five, losing their last four. Accrington have been in wretched form of late, with just one win from their last 14. They have arrested their slide, though, drawing the last two, and I think they can get another win in this one.
15:00 Port Vale v Lincoln City
Draw
50 WIN
@+320
Lose
-50
I expected Vale to come away from play-off-bound Stockport with a draw mid-week, but they did even better by winning the game. They may be relegated, but they are playing solidly right now. Their last seven games' form reads W3 D2 L2, with the two defeats being a 1-0 loss to Cardiff and a 2-1 loss to in-form, promotion-chasing Plymouth. Lincoln have won the league and reached the 100-point mark. After such a fine season, ending with a draw wouldn't be a disaster.
15:00 Reading v Blackpool
Blackpool
50 WIN
@+200
Win
100
Reading are safely in mid-table with nothing on the line in this one. They appear to be somewhat on the beach with no wins in five. Blackpool also have nothing on this game, but unlike Reading are finishing the season well, winning six of their last eight and eking out four 1-0 wins from their last six.
15:00 Stevenage v Wigan
Stevenage
50 WIN
@-166
Win
30
Three wins at the start of the month lifted Wigan clear of the relegation zone. Now safe, their performances seem to have fallen off, with a draw against Port Vale and a loss at home to struggling Wimbledon last time. Stevenage occupy the last playoff spot but are in danger of being leapfrogged by Luton and Plymouth. I expect at least one of them will win, meaning Stevenage simply must win this to make the play-offs, and I suspect they will.
15:00 Swindon v Chesterfield
Draw
50 WIN
@+270
Lose
-50
The equation is simple. If Swindon win, they make the play-offs. But if Chesterfield draw or win, they do. Chesterfield bring better form, with 4 wins and 2 draws from their last 6, and will be more than happy with a point today. Swindon have lost their form at the wrong time, drawing at home to struggling Accrington and losing 4-0 to Grimsby and 3-0 to Colchester. They do have home advantage, but I don't see that being enough to beat in-form Chesterfield, who I believe will get the draw they need.
15:00 Tranmere v Grimsby
Grimsby
50 WIN
@+114
Lose
-50
Tranmere aren't safe from relegation even though they are fifth-bottom, as they can still be overtaken by three teams below them. They are in desperate form, with one win from their last 14 and two wins from their last 21. Seventeen of those games ended in defeat. They have a daunting task in this one against a quality Grimsby side. Grimsby are already safely in the play-offs, but they are a far superior side to Tranmere, and it will be disappointing if they underperform in this one.
15:00 Wolverhampton v Sunderland
Draw
50 WIN
@+259
Win
130
Wolves went down 1-0 last time to Spurs, but prior to that were unbeaten in three at home, beating Villa and Liverpool and drawing with Arsenal. Despite already being relegated, they don't look a pushover at home of late. Sunderland's European ambitions took a knock with two straight defeats. This looks tricky for them, and they may have to settle for a draw.
12:30 Hull v Norwich
Norwich (AH) 0.50
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@-102
Lose
-50
The game is priced up purely on the motivation rather than the form of the teams. Hull are going for the last play-off place with Wrexham; the teams are level on points and Hull are just one goal worse off. Hull were in the play-offs, but no wins in six have seen them fall outside. They would obviously love a comfortable win in this one, but they aren't displaying that kind of form. Norwich have nothing to play for, but it can be folly to write off sides that seemingly have no motivation. They are playing well, with eight wins from 12, and can ruin Hull's play-off hopes.
12:30 Ipswich v QPR
Ipswich
50 WIN
@-333
Win
15
A win guarantees Ipswich promotion, and anything else most likely condemns them to the play-offs. They seem to be playing against an ideal side in QPR that has nothing to play for and has lost three straight coming into this. Ipswich won 4-1 at Loftus Road earlier in the season and look set to win again.
12:30 Millwall v Oxford Utd
Millwall
50 WIN
@-249
Win
20
Although Oxford won two of their last four, it wasn't enough to avoid relegation, as West Brom rallied well to climb clear of them. Subsequently, there is nothing on the line for them apart from pride in this one. That's not the case for Millwall, though, who can still make the automatic promotion spot if Ipswich don't win. They must win this, though, so I don't see them slipping up.
12:30 Portsmouth v Birmingham
Portsmouth
50 WIN
@+145
Lose
-50
Aside from a spell of three wins in January when bringing in players, Birmingham have been bitterly disappointing on the road. If the league were based purely on away fixtures, they would be in the relegation zone. Portsmouth have fought well to climb away from the relegation zone. Even when they were safe last time, they came away from Stoke with a 3-1 win. They clearly aren't a side on the beach and should win this last game in front of their home fans.
12:30 Sheff Wed v West Brom
Sheff Wed
50 WIN
@+525
Win
262
It's been a terrible campaign for Wednesday with just one win all season. Unless they win this, they will finish on an embarrassing negative points total. They would obviously love to win this to restore some pride and aren't without a chance. They have drawn three of their last four home games, so it's not a big step up to turn one into a win. They could be playing an ideal team in West Brom. West Brom have ended the season well and have pulled to safety away from the relegation zone. Now they are guaranteed Championship football next season, they can relax and surely won't have the same motivation as in recent games.
12:30 Swansea v Charlton
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@-133
Win
38
Swansea have conceded in 15 of their 22 home games. The teams they kept a clean sheet against were almost exclusively bottom-eight sides. Admittedly, Charlton are also in the bottom eight, but they are finding the net regularly now. They have scored in their last seven away matches, including against quality sides like Middlesbrough and Southampton. I see both teams scoring.
12:30 Wrexham v Middlesbrough
Wrexham
50 WIN
@+175
Lose
-50
The only game in the Championship with something on it for both sides. Middlesbrough can still gain an automatic promotion spot, but it's a long shot. They must win and hope Ipswich lose and hope Millwall don't win. With those two sides having very winnable home games, I doubt even the most optimistic Middlesbrough fan will believe they can do it. Wrexham have play-off ambitions, sitting in the last play-off place. To make the play-offs they simply have to match Hull's performance. That's a tricky thing to do, and their style of play is to go for goals and not sit back, so I see them winning this.
08:30 Parramatta Eels v New Zealand Warriors
New Zealand Warriors
To Win
50 WIN
@-208
Win
24
Eels are a solid enough side going forward, but it is far too easy for teams to break them down. They have conceded 279 points, the most in the league, even more than the hapless St. George Illawarra. Warriors are looking a quality side and should have few problems regularly breaching the Eels' defence.
Subtotal259
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