the prophet
Stats don’t lie. Trust your first instinct. Don’t go chasing losses.
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the prophet's Tips History
02 October 2024
20:00 8:00 Kempton
Arika
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@8.50
Lose
-50
Four runs since Feb for the 5yo/ excuses last time out - going off too quick / best judged when third during July - only beaten a nk by two runners rated 71/ he’s now running in a 0-60 contest - and has a 4lb lower mark now.
19:30 7:30 Kempton
Nap Hand
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Two career wins for the 4yo - getting his career back on track after missing all last year/ he went close over this 8f C/D two starts back - not the clearest of runs that day/ he was a nice turf winner four weeks ago - staying on well from off the pace/ four career runs over this C/D - his biggest defeat was just over a length/ still weighted to run a big race.
18:55 6:55 Kempton
Highland Spring
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Four runs for the 3yo this year - two on tuft - two at this track/ going close over this 8f C/D during June - winning over this C/D last time out/ room for more improvement - still on a decent looking mark - will be fresh after a 7 week break - strong jockey booking - good low draw.
18:20 6:20 Kempton
Expected Arrival
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
Progressive profile from the 3yo filly/ form 53-231/ she was a good 3rd two starts back - behind a winner now rated 12lb higher/ never in trouble when winning last time out by over a length/ slightly higher mark now but still open to more improvement/ no problem with the polytrack surface/ returning after a nice 7 week break.
17:45 5:45 Kempton
Night Raider
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Win
200
Just 5 career runs for the 3yo colt/ he started off with two wide margin novice stakes wins on the AW - he then ran in the 2000 Guineas on his 3rd start/ back from a break five weeks ago - after a wind op - not disgraced in a Listed contest - something to build on/ weighted to go well in this conditions race/ a return to the AW could be a positive move.
17:10 5:10 Kempton
Ayr Harbour
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.50
Lose
-50
The 7yo has been rated much higher in the past/ missed most of last year/ decent form since the summer/ best judged on his 7f C/D run during Aug - a close 2nd of 14 - the rest were quite strung out - the winner has run well off a higher mark since/ he has a good jockey booking and a good low draw.
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16:35 4:35 Kempton
Nahi
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
Just a debut run so far for the 2yo colt - 4th of 12/ the trainer has been patient with him - returning after a 4 month break for this novice stakes/ the form from the three runners that beat him is looking strong now.
16:00 4:00 Kempton
Sea Journey
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.25
Lose
-50
Two career runs for the John Gosden trained 3yo filly/ form 4-2/ she lost by a nk on the polytrack four weeks ago - returning from 10 months off the track - splitting two smart looking rivals that day/ should be improvement to come/ big player in this maiden stakes.
Subtotal-150
01 October 2024
19:30 7:30 Newcastle
Court Drive
Daily Racing
Near misses in all her 5 runs since May for the 3yo filly - good RPR ratings - her mark edging lower/ she was a close 3rd of 14 over 5f at this track four weeks ago - having her passage blocked a furlong out/ this 6f trip should suit her/ worth another chance.
19:00 7:00 Newcastle
Minnie Wildes
Daily Racing
200 WINNOTETip made at odds of 2.38 on 30/09 at 17:530.25 deduction for Thelmas Angel@3.75 withdrawn at 07:410.30 deduction for Second Name @3.250 withdrawn at 18:29R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 1.38 x (1-0.55) = 1.62AThis tip was used on Horse Racing 4Fold Acca.
@1.62
Win
124
The 3yo filly was a nice debut winner during Aug - a cosy 6L victory - boosted by the runner up who won next time out/ she earned a good RPR rating that day/ she has a penalty in this novice stakes for that win - but she’ll be fresh after a 7 week break - should be a big player.
18:00 6:00 Newcastle
Rose Of New Jersey
Daily Racing
The 2yo filly has had 6 career runs - getting her act together recently/ beaten 2L two runs back - the jockey dropping the whip at a crucial time/ beaten just 3/4L two weeks ago when 2nd of 9 - behind a now 71 rated winner/ her rivals today are rated 49-62/ good apprentice taking over in the saddle - his 7lb allowance is a positive.
17:30 5:30 Newcastle
Gastronomy
Daily Racing
The 5yo has been in good form this year - 9 runs - 2 wins - 4 near misses/ he won under this apprentice jockey three starts back/ a decent runner up last time out - not quite getting to the winner but 3L clear of the rest/ same mark for this handicap/ proven at this track/ his recent 5 week break will have him fresh for a big run.
17:00 5:00 Newcastle
Meade Gold
Daily Racing
100 EW
@17.00
Win
220
Four starts since April for the 3yo/ two starts back he tired late on over 12f/ last time out he stayed on nicely over 8f - not quite getting to the leaders/ his mark is dropping - he’s facing lower rated rivals now - this 10f trip could be ideal.
Subtotal-256
30 September 2024
19:00 7:00 Wolverhampton
Whiteley Way
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@12.00
Lose
-50
Just four runs for the 3yo filly this year - decent run three weeks ago - beaten 3L but she was coming off a 5 month break - should set her up nicely for tonight/ she ran two nice races earlier in the year - in better company and off a higher mark.
18:30 6:30 Wolverhampton
Souffionne
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@17.00
Lose
-50
Five runs for the 4yo this year - not great/ he was up with the pace for a good way three ago before fading/ he was coming off a 5 month break - good yard - should be sharper tonight/ 3lb lower mark - strong jockey booking for tonight/ he did go close at this track at the start of year - in a much stronger handicap than this race tonight - 12lb better off from that Jan run.
18:00 6:00 Wolverhampton
Master Of Combat
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEOdds taken at 10.00
@10.00
Win
450
The 6yo hasn’t been great in his four runs since the spring - however - he has been ridden by an very inexperienced claiming jockey/ good jockey Jack Mitchell returns to saddle - he rode plenty of nice races on the selection over the winter period - a much reduced mark now.
17:35 5:35 Down Royal
Firstman
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@67.00
Lose
-50
Four runs for the 7yo gelding this year/ not disgraced two weeks ago over this 13f trip - weakened in the final furlong - but it was a £78K handicap - he runs in a £6K contest today/ just three turf runs last year - a couple of decent efforts in defeat in stronger races than this one today - good RPR ratings/ on a handy looking mark now/ might go well at a big price.
17:25 5:25 Wolverhampton
Araifjan
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.50
Lose
-50
The 7yo is useful on his day - win or placed in 23 AW races/ this 6f C/D suits him/ only beaten 3L recently on the polytrack - he was coming off a 4 month break and a wind op - should be more tuned in tonight/ he ran plenty nice races last year while rated 10lb higher.
17:00 5:00 Down Royal
Little Lady Lucy
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 6.00 on 30/09 at 11:330.15 deduction for Redemptive Power@5.50 withdrawn at 15:33R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 5.00 x (1-0.15) = 5.25
@5.25
Win
212
Just four career runs for the 3yo filly/ a good 3rd of 15 four weeks ago - staying on well over a similar 10f trip like today/ room for plenty of improvement/ strong jockey change.
16:50 4:50 Wolverhampton
Maid In Chelsea
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEOdds taken at 2.80
@2.80
Win
90
Just one start for the 3yo filly - 4th of 11 in a novice stakes - holding every chance entering the final furlong before being outpaced - that form looking very strong now/ she’s had a nice 4 month break - improvement very possible/ every chance in this novice stakes.
16:25 4:25 Down Royal
Dear Daphne
Daily Racing
25 EW
@11.00
Lose
-50
Lightly raced 4yo filly/ three runs for a new yard since July - better form three weeks ago over this 7f trip - a close 3rd of 16 - staying on well/ she can build on that effort/ rated much higher at the start of the year.
16:15 4:15 Wolverhampton
Love Rock
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
Three career runs for the 2yo filly/ back from a 3 month break with a respectable run two weeks ago - poor draw but worked her way to sit in second - running well for a good way in strong looking 11 runner novice stakes/ the 1st and 2nd in the race earning 79 and 87 ratings/ handicap debut tonight for the selection - a 55 opening mark is attractive.
16:00 4:00 Roscommon
Doonbeg Don
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Just five starts over hurdles/ not great in his two handicap runs this spring - trained at a good yard - can bounce back after a 5 month break/ he was a decent 4th of 14 last Dec in a maiden hurdle - decent form - he has ability/ positive vibes in the betting market.
15:50 3:50 Down Royal
Winsome
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.87
Lose
-50
The 3yo filly is well-bred - making her debut today - in an average looking maiden race/ she did cost 485,000 gns - you would expect her to be quite useful.
15:15 3:15 Down Royal
State Of Joy
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEOdds taken at 7.50
@7.50
Win
195
Just average on her debut for weeks ago/ nicely bred - trained at a top yard - can improve in this maiden race/ the 2yo has been supported in the market.
14:40 2:40 Down Royal
Sevensees
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 4.50 on 30/09 at 11:030.25 deduction for Grand City Hall@3.75 withdrawn at 12:43R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 3.50 x (1-0.25) = 3.63
@3.63
Win
131
The 4yo has not had a busy campaign/ he was a 3L winner three starts back - during May/ respectable efforts in his last two runs/ the jockey’s 10lb claim today should help his chances.
14:15 2:15 Roscommon
Wendells Lass
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEOdds taken at 8.50
@8.50
Win
12
Lightly raced 5yo mare - flat-hurdles/ two flat runs this year - seems in good shape - beaten 5L in a 22 runner handicap five weeks ago - that form has been working out/ her last hurdle run was last summer - 2nd of 14 beaten just a length - same mark today - could be a player.
14:05 2:05 Down Royal
Weegeebear
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
The 2yo was a close 3rd of 14 last time out - over this 5f trip/ a race in which 7 of today’s rivals ran in/ the selection now has a capable apprentice in the saddle - his 7lb claim should be a positive.
Subtotal640
29 September 2024
16:50 4:50 Southwell
Red Treasure
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
The 4yo is in good shape - 3 solid runs in defeat in 4 races since May - good RPR ratings/ on a handy mark now/ runner up two weeks ago - that form has been boosted by the winner since/ just three previous runs on this surface - resulting in a win and two near misses.
16:40 4:40 Epsom Downs
Condor Pasa
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
Unexposed 3yo after just five career runs/ two starts back he won a 12 runner maiden race on soft ground by 4L - that form boosted by the runner up since/ only losing out late on his handicap debut last time out over a slightly longer trip than today - that form looking strong now/ he has a 2lb lower mark now/ comes here fresh after 11 weeks off the track.
16:15 4:15 Southwell
Environment Amigo
Daily Racing
Just 6 career runs for 3yo - finding form in his last two runs - room for more improvement/ a winner at this track two starts back/ a close runner up on turf last time out - in a much stronger contest than this handicap today/ similar mark today - worth another chance.
16:05 4:05 Epsom Downs
Winstons Tipple
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
Just four career runs for the 3yo/ form 3-231/ an AW novice stakes winner last time out/ best judged on his return run during July - a close 2nd of 13 - well clear of the rest - some cut in the ground that day - he made the winner earn his win that day - that one is now rated a huge 112/ the selection is still unexposed/ handicap debut today with an 83 rating/ strong jockey booking/ receives a 5lb age allowance from 6 of his 8 rivals.
15:40 3:40 Southwell
Petra Celera
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
The 3yo filly has been progressive this year/ a good runner up turf last time out - not the best track position - splitting two rivals rated 78 and 81 - same mark today and she faces rivals rated 56-72/ she was a 7f C/D winner last month.
15:30 3:30 Epsom Downs
Gallant Lion
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
Five runs for the 5yo this year - not doing a lot wrong in defeat/ beaten 4L last time out but he was beaten by 6 rivals rated 84-92 - the highest rated runner in this handicap is 82/ a good 3lb claimer in the saddle -effectively 5lb better off from that last run.
15:05 3:05 Southwell
Freak Encounter
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
Five career runs for the 2yo/ showed his best form just over a week ago - a close 3rd having every chance - clear of the rest - seeing the race out well / something to build on - he can start to show his potential now/ he was beaten by two runners rated 63 and 66 that day - just one rival rated above 61 in this handicap/ unexposed on this surface.
14:55 2:55 Epsom Downs
Lasting Love
Daily Racing
The 3yo filly has run well in 3 of her 5 starts/ bumped into a smart 96 rated runner last time out - no answer to the winner - stayed on well to be 2nd - well clear of the rest/ proven over 10f on slow ground - which is a big positive/ strong jockey booking/ she’s had a nice 5 week break and should go well in this novice stakes.
14:30 2:30 Southwell
Cancan In The Rain
Daily Racing
Just three runs this year for the 4yo - on turf - not doing a lot wrong in his last two races - fitness should be fine now/ down to a very handy mark/ proven on this surface/ if he returns to his form from this time last year on the AW - when he posted a couple of high ratings - he should be in the mix today/ looks overpriced.
14:20 2:20 Epsom Downs
Too Soon
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 6.50 used instead of 5.00 takenBOG
@6.50
Win
275
Two career runs for the nicely bred 2yo colt/ he was a good 3rd three weeks ago - staying on strongly - this extra 1 1/2f should suit him/ that form has been given a big boost by the runner up since/ proven on sow ground - could be a big player in this conditions race.
13:55 1:55 Southwell
Boss Dog
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
Three career runs for the 3yo/ near misses in his last two runs - decent looking form - the drop down to 6f for this maiden race should suit him/ the fav ‘Mashadi’ is still a maiden after 11 starts and looks a risky bet despite the good form figures.
13:45 1:45 Epsom Downs
White Chapel Road
Daily Racing
Four career runs for the 2yo colt - form 2401 - three good RPR ratings posted/ a close 2nd of 14 on his second start - solid looking form now/ he had the field strung out when winning a maiden by 2L four weeks ago/ big player on his handicap debut if he copes with the slower ground.
Subtotal-131
28 September 2024
19:00 7:00 Chelmsford City
Tremblant
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@10.00
Lose
-50
The 4yo has run some decent races in defeat this year/ down to an attractive mark now/ comes here fresh after a 6 week break/ good low draw for this 6f handicap/ every chance at this class 5 level.
17:30 Wolverhampton v Liverpool
Liverpool
50 WIN
@1.33
Win
17
Wolves are bottom of the table, just 1 point from 5, a huge 14 goals conceded. Hard to see them getting anything in this game against Liverpool, who are scoring plenty and conceding very little…. away win
15:40 3:40 Newmarket
Norwalk Havoc
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@19.00
Lose
-50
Irish raider - the 3yo has progressed nicely this year/ he posted a career-high RPR rating last time out - beaten a nk in a quality 18 runner £63K handicap - the form is solid/ will come here fresh and ready for a shot at nice £90K prize after a 2 month break/ the slow ground is a big positive... overpriced
15:15 3:15 Haydock
Aberama Gold
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
The 7yo has been good for connections - 1st or 2nd in 19 races - £386K in prize money/ he has gone close a few times this year - down to an attractive mark now/ he was twice a winner last year on heavy ground - including a 27 runner £129K handicap - those two wins off a 9lb higher mark and 10lb higher mark.
15:00 3:00 Newmarket
Shadow Of Light
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 7.50 on 26/09 at 16:330.00 deduction for Intrusively@26.00 withdrawn at 15:470.25 deduction for Ides Of March @4.000 withdrawn at 09:53R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 6.50 x (1-0.25) = 5.88
@5.88
Win
243
Three career runs for the 2yo colt/ form 112/ narrow defeat in a Group 2 last time out/ trained at the quality Charlie Applebly yard - improvement could be expected/ the warm fav has been busy this season/ the breeding does suggest that the very slow ground could be a positive for the selection.
15:00 Arsenal v Leicester
Arsenal
50 WIN
@1.18
Win
9
A decent start by newly promoted Leicester, 3 draws and two 2-1 defeats - but it’s hard to see them getting anything on the road against a very good Arsenal side… home win
15:00 Brentford v West Ham
Draw
50 WIN
@3.75
Win
138
These two sides have similar profiles - 3 defeats against top sides - two decent results against good mid table sides… positives and negatives for both sides… points shared … draw
15:00 Chelsea v Brighton
Chelsea
50 WIN
@1.75
Win
38
Brighton are unbeaten - but they’ve drawn their last two games, both at home against lesser oppositions, despite having plenty of possession. They are now away to a quality Chelsea side - 10 points from their last 4 games - and a team that looks like they are finally starting to gel… home win
15:00 Everton v Crystal Palace
Everton
50 WIN
@2.75
Win
88
Palace look to be missing Olise, plenty of pressure now on Eze, only 4 Palace goals scored in 5 matches, no wins. Everton have been playing some decent stuff at times but have been let down at the back - the recent 1-1 away to Leicester should give them some confidence - they did score twice recently against Villa and Bournemouth, big chance in this match at Goodison Park … home win
15:00 Nottm Forest v Fulham
Fulham
50 WIN
@3.10
Win
105
8th v 9th, Forest still unbeaten, Fulham just one defeat. Forest know how to grind out results without dominating games, however, Fulham come into the game after an impressive 3-1 win over Newcastle last week, they had a huge 22 attempts on goal, 11 on target, despite Newcastle having more possession.. I feel Fulham are underestimated and are a decent price for the win… away win
14:35 2:35 Curragh
Hotazhell
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.50
Win
125
Four career runs for the 2yo colt - form 4112/ losing out in the final 100 yards last time out in a Group 2 over this 7f C/D five weeks ago/ the form boosted since with the 1st and 3rd filling the first two places in a Group 1 recently/ the selection should be a big player in this Group 2.
14:25 2:25 Newmarket
Babouche
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.62
Lose
-50
Hard to fault the 2yo filly/ 3 wins from 3/ she beat a very smart O’Brien runner last time out in a Group 1 contest - that rival is a warm order in a later Group 1 race on the card.
13:50 1:50 Newmarket
Puppet Master
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
Two career runs for the 2yo colt/ runner up on his debut - that form given a nice boost since/ a cosy 4L maiden win on his second start/ Aidan O’Brien-Ryan Moore team up and have to be respected in this Group 2/ his maiden win came on soft ground which could be a big positive.
13:30 1:30 Haydock
Raadobarg
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
The 6yo has 5 career wins - placed 8 times/ respectable efforts in his last two runs/ all his his races last year were off a 10lb higher rating - five near misses in Group and Listed level - now in handicap company/ the very slow ground is a big plus/ he is a previous 8f CD winner/ he ticks plenty of boxes.
13:15 1:15 Newmarket
Timefall
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@21.00
Void
0
Just 5 career runs for the 2yo filly - form 24138/ two starts back she was beaten by a now 99 rated winner - who has gone very close in Group 3 since/ only 8th last time out out - but she stayed on nicely after a poor start- doing better than most in the 20 runner contest that were drawn high - it was a £193K sales race full with quality runners/ her handicap mark of 76 looks attractive/ strong jockey booking.
12:30 Newcastle v Man City
Draw
50 WIN
@4.75
Win
188
City are missing two key players - Kevin De B - and City have a poor record when Rodri is missing - Stones and Walker are not getting any younger - no clean sheet in their last four league games… Newcastle will be fired up with great home support - they can get something from this game… draw
Subtotal651
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