the prophet

Stats don’t lie. Trust your first instinct. Don’t go chasing losses.

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the prophet's Tips History

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18 June 2024
16:25 4:25 Royal Ascot

Notable Speech

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.10

Lose

-50

The 3yo colt has 4 wins from 4/ he looked good when winning the 2000 Guineas by 1 1/2L - which was his turf debut - smoothly hitting the front a furlong out that day/ no reason why he can’t take his form to another level in this Group 1 - comes here fresh after a 7 week break.
15:45 3:45 Royal Ascot

Believing

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 10.00 used instead of 9.00 takenBOG

@10.00

Win

20

The 4yo filly has a progressive profile/ she finish last season with a close 3rd of 16 in a Group 1/ she ran in a Honk Kong Group 1 during April - not great/ however - she was impressive when winning a Listed contest 10 days ago by a cosy 3L and the rest beaten 9L+ - cruising to the front and the margin could have been much greater/ it was a decent looking contest and I like fact that she was dropping down from 6f that day to this 5f trip/ more to come from her.
15:05 3:05 Royal Ascot

Midnight Strike

Daily Racing

25 EW

@29.00

Lose

-50

Irish raider/ two runs for the nicely bred 2yo colt/ a nice debut win during April/ he was a close 3rd in a Group 3 last month - however - he was too keen for the first 2f - he was caught a little flat footed when the pace lifted but he was closing at the finish once getting into top gear and beaten under a length/ he looks a big price as he was just behind the Aidan O’Brien runner ‘Camille Pissarro’ that day who is a 6/1 shot for this race/ I think the stiff Ascot finish will suit the selection and he now has Oisin Murphy to drive him home in this Group 2.
14:30 2:30 Royal Ascot

Audience

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Lose

-50

The 5yo was impressive when winning the quality Group 1 Lockinge Stakes 31 days ago by 2L - the margin was much bigger entering the final furlong - quality runners in 3rd and 4th beaten 8L and 13L/ he was racing away from the other runners that day but he was coming off a 7 month break and it’s possible he has grown and got stronger over the winter/ the jockey is happy with his chances in this Group 1.
17 June 2024
20:00 Austria v France

Christoph Baumgartner

Anytime Goalscorer

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

Austria are no mugs and gave Belgium two good games in the group stage. Baumgartner is only 24 and has spent his career playing in Germany, getting his share of goals. He has a good scoring ratio when playing for his country which does suggest he gets more forward when playing for Austria.
17:00 5:00 Carlisle

Questionable

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.50

Lose

-50

The 3yo filly is unexposed after just four runs/ an unlucky 2nd of 10 on her handicap debut 24 days ago - having to wait for a gap and beaten just a shd - and 4L clear of the rest/ the form from some of the beaten runners seemed quite useful and the selection should be set for a big run.
17:00 Belgium v Slovakia

Belgium & No (Result + BTTS)

Result and BTTS

50 WIN

@2.38

Lose

-50

Portugal managed to have 39 attempts on goal against Slovakia in their two group qualifying games - Slovakia managing just 5 shots on target over the two matches. This good Belgium side should be able to produce similar stats today.

Leandro Trossard

Anytime Goalscorer

50 WIN

@3.40

Lose

-50

Trossard was in great form for Arsenal in the second half of the season - he does tend to play the full 90 minutes for his country/ he will be in the thick of the action along side Lukaku and he should get chances against an average Solvakian side.
16:55 4:55 Chepstow

Bobby Dassler

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

The 5yo didn’t fire for his new yard towards the end of last - while racing on the AW/ he’s had a 5 month break and has much better stats on tuft/ some decent form in his 7 turf runs last year - and he was rated 14lb higher at one point/ he could be a big player today off this attractive mark and against rivals rated 0-56.
16:18 4:18 Chepstow

Global Effort

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

The 4yo joined a new yard this year - getting his act together with an AW win two weeks ago/ he ran to a decent level on turf this time last year - while racing off a much higher mark and against better rivals than this 0-55 bunch today.
15:48 3:48 Chepstow

Coco Bear

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Lose

-50

The 6yo ran a decent race during April on his return from a 5 month break - hitting the front a furlong out but outpaced in the last 100 yards/ he’s had a nice 8 week break since that run - he has a lower mark today - this slower ground is more suitable - his last race was a much stronger affair than this handicap - good jockey Holly Doyle takes over in the saddle.
15:30 3:30 Carlisle

Manuelito

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-50

Four runs for the 4yo this year - all over the jumps/ 2 wins and a narrow defeat/ no problem with the 14f trip on slow ground/ his flat mark of 63 is now looking very attractive.
14:48 2:48 Chepstow

Optiva Star

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 10.00 used instead of 7.50 takenBOG

@10.00

Win

20

The 4yo was progressive last autumn - 3 wins and 2 defeats by a hd/ a decent 3rd of 12 on his return during April - not sure why he ran on the AW last time out/ the trip - going - current mark - all point to a possible big run in what looks like a weak handicap.
14:00 Romania v Ukraine

Ukraine & Yes (Result + BTTS)

Result and BTTS

50 WIN

@4.50

Lose

-50

Romania did score in 8 of their 10 qualifying group games and might sneak one today/ however, I feel Ukraine - who managed to get draws against both England and Italy in the group stage - will be too strong this afternoon.

Artem Dovbyk

Anytime Goalscorer

50 WIN

@2.62

Lose

-50

The 26yo Artem Dovbyk had a great first season for Spanish club Girona - 24 league goals and 8 assists/ He the #1 striker for this decent Ukraine side and he should get chances against Romania today.

Over 3.50

Total Cards

50 WIN

@2.02

Lose

-50

Both these sides got above average the number of yellow cards in their 10 group games/ a bigger prize at stake today and the ref could be busy.
16 June 2024
18:45 6:45 Thirsk

Lettuce Leaf

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.50

Lose

-50

Just four runs for the 3yo filly and still unexposed/ a big run three weeks ago - on her handicap debut after 6 months off the track/ unlucky to lose out in a 3 way finish and she was 5L clear of the 4th - she travelled strong that day waited for room and was the last to be asked a serious question - beaten by two runners rated 69 and 73/ same mark today/ good jockey change/ open to plenty more progress/ the forecast thundery showers would be a positive/ every chance in this 49-69 rated handicap.
1 member found this comment useful
18:15 6:15 Thirsk

Banderas

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

Lightly 4yo - 1 win from 7 and a few good runs in defeat/ two runs this year - not disgraced when 3rd on fast ground last time out but he has better stats on slower ground/ beaten a length on his return in a strong handicap on slow ground - beaten by two runners rated 96/ he does have a 2lb lower mark now - a good jockey change - and faces rivals rated 66-86.
1 member found this comment useful
17:45 5:45 Thirsk

Jer Batt

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@11.00

Lose

-50

Irish import/ five runs for his UK yard last year and the 4yo had 2 wins and two near misses/ he ran well two weeks ago in a useful contest after coming off an 11 month break/ he was beaten a length - travelled strong and had every chance until the last 100 yards/ as he was coming back from a break I feel the jockey wasn’t hard on him - that run should set him up nicely for today and he does have a slightly lower mark.
1 member found this comment useful
17:30 5:30 Salisbury

Vin Rouge

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@9.00

Lose

-50

The 6yo went jumping last year/ no problem with his return to the flat this year - two runs/ beaten just over a length at this track three weeks ago and can build on that run/ it looked a more competitive handicap than this contest today and he looks overpriced.
17:15 5:15 Thirsk

Victory Shout

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

The 3yo colt has 1 win from 7 and three near misses/ he posted his best RPR ratings in his last two runs after stepping up to this 11f+ trip - and is in good shape/ he was second in both those races which looked good quality handicap contests/ still room for improvement - strong jockey change for today - he looks overpriced.
1 member found this comment useful
17:00 5:00 Salisbury

Just An Hour

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

Irish import/ lightly raced/ four runs for his UK trainer - switching to turf for his last two starts/ not doing a lot wrong in those two races - which were stronger races than this handicap today - a few lb lower mark now/ still room for improvement and I think the drop in trip today is a plus.
17:00 Slovenia v Denmark

Slovenia

50 WIN

@6.00

Lose

-50

These two sides met in the group stage/ finishing 1st and 2nd/ both with 22 points and very similar goals for/against. Denmark will be expected to win - more pressure/ Slovenia with nothing to lose are a nice looking bet at 5/1.
16:45 4:45 Thirsk

Mereside Diva

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 3.75 used instead of 3.50 takenBOG

@3.75

Win

137

A progressive profile for the 4yo filly - 1st or 2nd in 7 of 12 races/ she was 2nd of 18 three weeks ago in what looked a useful handicap - good rating and only a lb higher mark today/ 7f on g/s ground is ideal and she faces just five rivals today.
1 member found this comment useful
16:15 4:15 Thirsk

Cargin Bhui

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Win

15

The 3yo has 1 win from 6 and two very near misses/ beaten a shd two weeks ago - travelled well and hit the line strong - in a decent contest/ he earned a high RPR rating that day/ there is room for improvement/ the step up from 6f to 7f could be a positive move.
1 member found this comment useful
16:00 4:00 Salisbury

An Outlaws Grace

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.88 used instead of 2.50 takenBOG

@2.88

Win

93

The 2yo colt is making his debut/ nicely-bred/ cost £80K as a yearling/ the market vibes are strong/ the yard have had six 2yo turf winners this year and they should know where they stand with this one.
15:45 3:45 Thirsk

Ghost Run

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.50

Lose

-50

The nicely-bred 2yo filly was very inexperienced on her debut three weeks ago - still at the rear a furlong out but finished well once the penny dropped/ 5th of 12 at finish - beaten 3L - but it was a useful contest and the 6th and 7th both won next time out/ she should improve for that run and has every chance in this novice stakes.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 Poland v Netherlands

Netherlands & Yes (Result + BTTS)

Result and BTTS

50 WIN

@3.60

Win

130

The Dutch know what to do at the big comps - unlucky to lose on penalities in the World Cup QF in 2022 to Argentina - 3 of their last 4 friendly games have ended with 4-0 wins/ however, Poland are on a good unbeaten run and will make things tricky today.
15 June 2024
17:00 Spain v Croatia

Draw

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

Two sides who should go far in the comp. Croatia are not the best in attack but they know to keep a clean a sheet and know how to go far in tournaments. A tight game… draw
16:45 4:45 York

Theme Park

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

Lightly raced 4yo/ good previous form at this track/ a nice return to tuft four weeks ago - just missing out on finishing 3rd in a useful 16 runner class 2 handicap at this track - not the clearest of runs approaching the final furlong/ still room for improvement - slightly lower mark today and he’s dropping down into a class 4 contest.
1 member found this comment useful
15:35 3:35 York

Serried Ranks

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

The trainer has been patient with this 3yo/ 2 wins from 5/ a smart class 2 handicap winner last year - the runner-up has gone on to better things and is rated 25lb higher now with a 114 rating/ the selection was not disgraced on his return after a 6 month break - beaten 3L but got himself too far back in a useful handicap but he did split two runners rated 99 and 95/ he should be better for that run - still unexposed - a slightly lower mark today - and 15 of his 18 rivals are rated 92 or lower.
1 member found this comment useful
15:20 3:20 Chester

Monfrid

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

The 3yo colt has 1 win 4 and three near misses/ he was beaten 2L on his handicap debut three weeks ago - every chance until the last 100 yards/ that race was a competitive £52K contest/ good jockey change for this handicap - same mark - open to more improvement - and a positive low draw at this Chester track.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 York

Chesspiece

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@7.50

Void

0

Two runs this year for the 4yo/ decent return effort and possibly tacky ground not helping last time out/ a close 2nd last year to 115 rated ‘Middle Earth’ and a nk second to 113 rated ‘Desert Hero’ - which is standout form/ he can bounce back in this Listed contest.
1 member found this comment useful

Klondike

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.00 used instead of 3.75 takenBOG

@4.00

Win

150

The 4yo colt is unexposed, 1 win from 5/ useful Group form last year/ decent return run four weeks ago and can take a step forward/ strong jockey booking and is a player at this Listed level.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Sandown

Flora Of Bermuda

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-50

A chance taken on the lightly raced 3yo/ she tends to start her races very slowly but has still run to a decent level in Group 3 and 2 company last year/ she lost her chance at the start three weeks ago on her return run in a Group 2 - rearing up and losing many lengths at the start/ she’s lowered her sights to Listed level now - which is well within her range if she breaks better.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 York

Aalto

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@8.00

Win

10

Two runs this year for the 4yo/ a close 2nd of 16 in a useful contest on his return/ only 4th four weeks ago but he did hit the front entering the final furlong and he was beaten by two runners rated 100 and 105/ the drop down from 8f to 7f could suit him/ same mark today/ only one rival rated above 90/ top jockey Ryan Moore has three rides on the card and this is one of them.
1 member found this comment useful
14:10 2:10 Chester

Curious Rover

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.00

Win

10

The 3yo gelding was 5th of 19 two weeks ago in the quality £39K Epsom 5f dash/ he has a 2lb lower mark now/ good jockey Cieran Fallon takes over from an apprentice/ he can get a good early position from stall 5 at this tricky Chester track/ he can be a big player in this £12K contest.
2 members found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Sandown

Flying Frontier

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.00

Lose

-50

A smart unexposed 4yo colt/ 2 wins from 6 and his biggest defeat was 2L/ he posted a big RPR rating on his final start last year when a close second/ probably kept under wraps for his return to keep his current handicap mark - and a shot at this £50K first prize/ yard in great form - 14 winners and a 23% strike rate this year/ positive jockey booking with James Doyle - he has a 22% strike rate for this yard.
1 member found this comment useful
14:00 Hungary v Switzerland

Hungary

50 WIN

@3.80

Lose

-50

Switzerland conceded too many goals in the qualifying group for my liking, and they only won 4 from 10 games. Hungary topped their group, they were unbeaten and scored 2 or more goals in 7 of their 8 matches.
13:50 1:50 York

Lord Melbourne

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@9.00

Win

400

Lightly raced 4yo/ 1 win from 5 on turf and two near misses/ a winner on his return during April/ a big run two weeks ago when beaten 2L in a £52k handicap - against 82-106 rated runners/ only one runner rated above 85 in this contest and the selection has a 2lb lower mark now/ top jockey booking in this female amateur riders’ handicap.
1 member found this comment useful
14 June 2024
20:20 8:20 Goodwood

Alazwar

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

A consistent 6yo/ three AW runs earlier in the year and will be happy back on tuft today/ no problem with a 3 month break/ he was a smart 2L winner on his final tuft start in 2023 and it was a stronger contest than this handicap/ same good experienced jockey in the saddle today for this amateur riders’ contest and she gets on very well with the selection.
20:00 Germany v Scotland

Draw

50 WIN

@6.00

Lose

-50

Germany have lost their way in the last few years, failing to get past the group stage in the 2018 and 2022 World Cup and beaten in the last 16 of Euro 2020. They had poor friendly stats last year, the current team looks average and they have the pressure of being the home nation. Scotland won’t be lacking for effort and they did beat Spain 2-0 last year in the qualifying group…. draw
19:50 7:50 Goodwood

Enchanting

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.75

Win

87

The 3yo filly has 1 win from 5/ she was 4th of 19 last time out in a quality £39K handicap - runners rated 0-90/ she has a lower mark tonight and is running in a 72-79 contest.
19:15 7:15 Goodwood

Milliethemollie

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

A 3yo Irish import/ two UK tuft runs this year/ runner-up and beaten 2L in her previous race to a progressive type who is rated 13lb higher now and has an 85 mark/ beaten a length last time out - making a mess of the start and not a lot of room late on/ those two runs were quick 5f races - she was a winner over 6f over in Ireland and she might enjoy a more suitable pace tonight in this 62-71 rated handicap over 6f.
18:40 6:40 Goodwood

Miller Spirit

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 3.00 used instead of 2.62 takenBOG

@3.00

Win

100

The 4yo has 2 wins from 10/ two runs this year and he was a nice winner last week in an apprentice handicap/ he can build on that win - it was a much stronger looking contest than this handicap tonight/ no penalty for that last win.
18:05 6:05 Goodwood

Unreal Connection

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Lose

-50

The 3yo filly has 1 win from 7 and two near misses/ two runs this year and a return to tuft five weeks ago/ only 6th in the end but not disgraced at a first try over this 10f trip/ still in the mix approaching the final furlong - not a lot room - eased late on/ the winner is now rated 88 and runner-up ran in a Group 3 next time out/ the selection can improved for the run - strong jockey booking - 2lb lower mark - and should enjoy a more reasonable pace to aim at in this 53-71 rated handicap.
17:30 5:30 Goodwood

Alerta Maxima

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@5.00

Win

200

The 2yo filly ran a decent race on her debut three weeks ago - over this 6f C/D - in a better than average looking maiden race/ she was beaten 3L but she was drawn widest on the far rail with the main action up the centre - she missed the break and didn’t get any cover on the outside of runners - but plenty to like how she saw the race out/ good jockey booking tonight/ worth another chance in this maiden race.
16:45 4:45 York

Arctic Mountain

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-50

Six career runs for the 4yo/ form 322-231/ impressive 5L win last week over this 10f trip - the margin could have been bigger with the jockey easing down late on/ he should be racing off a 6lb higher mark today on official ratings and he looks well treated at the weights.
16:25 4:25 Sandown

Divine Breath

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@2.10

Void

0

Four starts for the 3yo filly - 2 wins and a near miss/ impressive 6L AW win last week/ she runs on tuft today but she is racing off a mark which is 9lb lower than her new official rating.
16:10 4:10 York

Oviedo

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.50

Lose

-50

The 4yo got a little worked up five weeks ago on his return from a 7 month break - but he still ran well for a long way in that Group 2 contest/ on his final start last year he was only beaten a length in the competitive 34 runner Cambridgeshire handicap/ similar mark today - he can take a step forward after that return run - he looks the class runner in this handicap.
15:00 3:00 York

Katey Kontent

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@6.50

Lose

-50

The 4yo filly has 3 wins from 10/ she finished last season with four near misses/ back from a 7 month break with a nice win last month - she had to wait for room inside the final 2f and there was plenty to like how she saw the race out - hitting the line strong/ the 2nd and 5th both won next time out/ a 3lb higher mark today but there could plenty more improvement after that return run.
14:05 2:05 Sandown

Acklam Express

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.00

Lose

-50

The 6yo has had two runs for the good Clive Cox yard/ a decent run three weeks ago - beaten 3L but staying on well from off the pace/ it was a first run after wind surgery and an 8 month break and can take a step forward/ dropped 3lb after that run/ he has raced at the highest level and was rated 110 as a 4yo/ this time last year he was racing off a 21lb higher mark and is now running in a class 4 off an attractive 81 rating.

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