the prophet

Just nine career runs from the 4yo. He has 1 win from 5 on the AW. He is 14 lb lower than his opening mark from this time last year. He was only beaten by 2 L over this 8f C/D in December in a much stronger handicap than this race today. He was staying on well at the finish that day. He was beaten by three runners who are all rated higher now, while the selection is now running off a 5 lb lower mark. He looks overpriced.

Two runs this winter after coming off a three-month break. He was a good handicap winner three weeks ago and can build on that win. Still on a handy-looking mark and is facing much lower-rated rivals today.

Arsenal could be worth taking on. They had a hard SF in midweek. They’ve won just one of their last four league games, and I feel they have been a little negative recently when attacking. Sunderland have the third-best defensive record, and only two clubs have lost fewer games. They can grind out a point. Draw

Bournemouth are one of the better attacking sides in the league, with ten points picked up in their last four league games. They will make it a good test for third-placed Villa, who lost at home to Brentford last week. Draw

Burnley are second bottom and offered nothing in the 3-0 defeat to Sunderland last week, and are worth taking on. West Ham are not shaping up much better, but they have won two of their last three league games and were unlucky last week, losing 3-2 to Chelsea. They will be in a more positive frame of mind than Burnley. Away win.

It’s 9th vs 10th; both teams are on 34 points, but Everton are one of the lowest-scoring sides this season and have earned points by sitting deep and grinding them out. Fulham have picked up 10 points from their last four home league games, against good sides, and they can be too strong for this Everton side. Home win.

Chelsea have won their last three league games, scoring eight goals in the process. Top player Palmer is fit again, and they can go fourth in the league with a result in this match. Bottom club Wolves look up against it. Away win.

Brentford could be underestimated in this match. They have three more points than Newcastle this season and won 1-0 away at third-placed Villa last week. Newcastle had a hard SF during the week against Man City. Brentford could be worth a punt for the win, but at the same price the draw could be the safer bet. Draw.

Three career runs for the 3yo. He was beaten 5L when last seen, but he made the running and eased late on. It was a useful maiden race and he was beaten by four runners now rated 73??"84. Trained at a top yard, improvement is likely after five months off the track. This opening handicap mark of 65 looks attractive.

A long time since Palace won a league game, and with all the turmoil at the club they are in a bit of free-fall and edging towards the drop zone. Brighton have lost just one league game at home this season, and they can get the three points. Home win.

The lightly raced 4yo has been a little hit-or-miss. He had trouble in running last time out. Four runs back he was a decent third over 6f on the Polytrack at Lingfield, beaten by two runners rated 74+. He has a huge 10 lb lower mark now and no rival is rated above 65. He has run some good races previously over this 7f trip.

The 7yo was below par in two runs last month after coming off a three-month break but can bounce back. In the summer he was below par in two runs after a break, then was a nice 3L winner on his next start. Some of his previous form is way better than what these rivals in this 0-50 have previously shown.

Two runs this year for the 5yo mare, who is decent on her day. She was rated 6 lb higher as recently as three runs back. She was a decent runner-up three weeks ago, with no chance behind the front-running winner, who is rated 12 lb higher now after winning again since. She saw the race out nicely that day and is unexposed over this longer trip.

The 5yo joined this yard last autumn. Five runs since and four decent efforts. He was runner-up over 7f two weeks ago and seems in good shape, hitting the front a furlong out but no match for the winner late on. He now drops down to 6f. He’s on a very handy-looking mark if he can reproduce the form he showed last summer/spring when rated much higher.

The jury is still out on Liverpool this season; they've failed to win in 13 of their 24 league games. They failed to beat Burnley and Leeds in recent home games. Liverpool will have to be positive, but City, who normally have to play against teams parking the bus, have the quality to take advantage of the extra space they’ll get. Away win.