the prophet

The 4yo got his act together towards the end of last year after switching to the AW. Excuses last time out: weak apprentice jockey and a different track. His three previous runs were all over this 8f C/D and under the same jockey ??" two narrow defeats and a win. He posted a high rating for his win, is only slightly higher in the weights now, and I like the form from his win; the third and fourth in the race have since won five races between them. The selection will be fresh after a six-week break.

The 3yo filly is the only runner in this race with any worthwhile form on this Tapeta surface. She was a good runner-up five weeks ago over this 8f trip at Newcastle. The fourth in that race has won since. This novice stakes doesn’t look strong, and she has a chance.

Lightly raced 4yo filly. Six runs last year, switching yards last Sept, not helped by a high opening handicap mark of 85. I feel she ran a respectable race five weeks ago, sitting just behind the leaders but not having a lot of room inside the final furlong. The first four home in that race have all run good races since, so the form stands up. She has a 3 lb lower mark now, and with the jockey’s 3 lb claim she’s a huge 21 lb lower from her opening mark. The yard is having a good winter, including five winners this month for a 24% strike rate.

The 9-year-old is capable on his day. First or second in 14 races. Something was amiss last time out, but he wasn’t beaten far in his two previous races. He posted some good RPR ratings in defeat last year, and he still has ability. Good jockey booking and he is on a handy mark. He was rated 11 lb higher last spring after returning from a break.

Lightly raced 4-year-old. Back from a three-month break for his AW debut in December. Drawn widest, held up, and not given a hard time, but it should set him up nicely for tonight. He posted a couple of good RPR ratings in defeat last year and has ability. On a decent mark now and is attracting some money in the markets.

Six career runs for the 3yo, form 52212-3. Still relatively unexposed. He ran well earlier in the month on his AW debut after coming off a four-month break, finishing a good third that day in a decent-looking handicap, and he met quite a bit of traffic problems in the late stages.

A win for West Ham last week, but they are still in the bottom three and they’ve conceded the most goals in the league this season. Sunderland have been one of the best sides at the back this season. They’ll have players returning from AFCON, and only Arsenal have lost fewer games than them this season. Away win.

The 6-year-old has 2 wins from 2 over hurdles. He looked good when winning a novice hurdle by 5L four weeks ago. He jumped well, and the jockey was able to ease right down after jumping the last. His RPR rating was easily the second highest recorded from these 12 runners. Strong jockey booking, and he should go well in this Grade 2 contest.

A consistent 7-year-old, first or second in 8 of 10 races, hurdles/chase. Narrow defeats in his two runs this winter. Good RPR ratings. He’ll be fresh after an eight-week break. Unexposed over this 20f trip. Still on a handy-looking mark, just 10-4 on his back, and he could have plenty more improvement in him.

Consistent 7yo mare. She was only beaten 2L in a 14-runner Irish Grade 1 hurdle three starts back (April) and was clear of the rest. Two runs this winter will have her in peak condition. Only beaten 2L in a strong-looking Listed contest three weeks ago, but the slower ground for this Grade 2 will be more to her liking. She does get weight from her three main market rivals.

The 11-year-old has been good for connections, with 10 wins over fences. Runner-up twice last May and still showing ability. Yet to fire this winter, but this cross-country race might put a spring into his step. He was rated 15 lb higher at one point last winter. Just one previous try in this course/distance cross-country race, just over a year ago, and he was running well before taking the wrong track 3 out.

Ex-Irish trained 9yo. Joined the Skelton yard last winter. He showed solid hurdle form early last year. He made his chase debut for the yard six weeks ago over this 3m C&D and was only beaten 4L in a decent handicap. He was ridden by an apprentice that day and is in better hands now. Weighted to go well and could be underestimated.

Burnley come into the game after back-to-back draws with Man Utd and Liverpool, and they can get something from this game. Spurs come into the game after a good midweek Champions League win, but they’ve failed to win in 15 of 22 league games this season… Draw.

Fulham have been decent in recent weeks and have picked up 20 points from 11 home games. However, Brighton give nothing away, and they’ve picked up points in 16 of 22 league games… draw

A good midweek Euro win for Liverpool, but they’ve failed to win in their last four league games and failed to win in 7 of 11 away league fixtures. Bournemouth have looked good going forward this season. In their last two home fixtures they scored twice against Arsenal and three times against Spurs. They can get something from this game… draw

Brentford have not been good on the road, but they do have the fourth-best record at home: just one defeat, and only Arsenal and Man City have scored more goals at home. Forest are in for a hard afternoon. Home win.

It's been a while since Palace have won a league game. There are problems with the manager and the board. They've just sold their captain, who was their best defender, and their main striker has just said he wants to leave. Chelsea should be able to take advantage of the turmoil in the Palace camp. Away win.

Newcastle will be feeling good about themselves at the moment. Ten points from their last four league games and a nice 3??"0 midweek Champions League win. Villa have been a little hit and miss in recent games and are worth taking on. Home win.

A mixed bag early in the season from Man Utd, but they are now 5th in the table. Only Arsenal have lost fewer games, and only Man City and Arsenal have scored more goals than them this season. Utd could have scored six against Man City last week. It will be the same sit-and-counter-attack approach in this match. Utd will have fresh legs while Arsenal had a tricky midweek Euro game. Draw.

Both sides come into the game in good shape, both with just one defeat in their last five league games. You could make a case for both sides. Everton are solid at the back, with Leeds better going forward. Draw.