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2nd May 2024
19:00 Daniil Medvedev vs Jiri Lehecka
Jiri Lehecka
Win Match
50 WIN
I actually think Medvedev is playing fairly well this week but Lehecka has three wins without dropping a set whilst he just beat Rafa in straight sets as well, so I think he's worth backin gto beat Medvedev here who has a hate-hate relationship with the clay.
Jiri Lehecka to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
Jiri has looked really strong this week and his first serve has been brutal whilst he's yet to drop a set and beat Rafa in the last round against an incredibly tough crowd, so considering Medvedev isn't really a fan of the clay then I think Lehecka could get on top early and take this 2-0.
Jiri Lehecka
1st Set Winner
50 WIN
Lehecka has served incredibly well this week and he's won all three matches in straight sets and that includes Nadal in the last round in front of a home crowd, so I think he has a lot of momentum and Medvedev isn't much of a clay fan in general, so I am backing the Czech to take the first set here.
19:15 Peter Wright vs Michael Smith
Michael Smith -1.50
Handicap 2-way
50 WIN
I think that Smith probably wins this one fairly comfortably because obviously he is the one who needs to points for a play-off place whilst Wright has been poor most of this campaign and is fizzling out, so I am backing Smith against this handicap.
Michael Smith
Most 180s
50 WIN
I would be surprised if Smith doesn’t hit more 180s because he is the one who needs the points whilst Wright has been poor all year and is fizzling out, so I am backing Smith more 180s.
Over 5.50
Total 180s
50 WIN
I think we might just see over 5.50 180s in this one because I expect Smith to turn up focused in these last few weeks because he is in a fight for the play offs and Wright even in his poor form is capable of one or two 180s, so I am backing over in this one.
Under 9.50
Total Legs
50 WIN
I think Smith will win this one fairly comfortably because even in losing to Cross last week, he still managed a 103 average and Wright hasn’t really shown much to suggest he’ll hit near that here. I think Smith will win 6-3, so I am backing under 9.50 legs
19:30 Chelsea v Tottenham
Chelsea
50 WIN
I tend to think when it comes to Spurs that they're just too open defensively which is also the case for Chelsea but I think Chelsea have been in better form and they tend to play well in this fixture, so I am backing a home win here.
Chelsea & Yes
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
When you look at the way that both of these teams play then I think it is absolutely inevitable that there'll be goals in this match for both teams, but Chelsea tend to show up in this fixture and in spite of the Arsenal result, they have been in decent form over the last couple of months in their charge for Europe, so I am backing a home win and btts here.
Cristian Romero
Anytime Goalscorer
50 WIN
I don't think that Chelsea are a particularly well organised side whilst Romero has been a magnet on set pieces much of the season and has 5 goals in 28 matches whilst he could have had 4 against Arsenal at the weekend, so I am backing him anytime here.
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Axel Disasi
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
Disasi has scored 2 goals in the league this season but he's always a threat from set pieces and that's especially the case in home matches where he's even has disallowed goals recently. Spurs are poor on set pieces and conceded from two corners against Arsenal, so I think Disasi is worth backing first goal here.
1 member found this comment useful
Brennan Johnson
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
This is one of those matches where pretty much anyone can get booked because matches between these two are always heated but Johnson is a snidey and tetchy character who has a few bookings to his name this season and would definitely get involved in altercations, so I am backing him to be booked here.
19:45 Luke Littler vs Nathan Aspinall
Nathan Aspinall
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
Aspinall generally plays well in the QF stage of these things and they’ve played each other 5 times in the Premier League and the only 100+ average hit was by Aspinall which is the match he won whilst he averaged 106 against Humphries last week in the QF, so I think it’s worth backing Aspinall to win at these odds.
Nathan Aspinall 1.50
Handicap 2-way
50 WIN
Littler has qualified now, so the pressure is off which I actually think might hinder him here as Aspinall does need the points and they played a 6-5 match last week that Aspinall should have won whilst Littler hasn’t hit a 100+ average in any of their 5 PL meetings, so I think Aspinall with this handicap is worth backing.
Nathan Aspinall
Most 180s
50 WIN
They’ve played 5 times in the Premier League with Littler winning 4 matches. Of those 5 matches, Littler has hit more 180s in just 2 of them whilst 1 was a draw on that front. I think Aspinall definitely needs the points more here and he tends to show up in the first match of the night, so Aspinall is worth backing most 180s in this one.
Over 6.50
Total 180s
50 WIN
I think Littler will be showboating in this one because he has qualified whilst the match they played last week saw him hit 6 alone and Aspinall score a couple. I actually think Aspinall will turn up with his scoring in this one, so I can definitely see over 6.50 180s coming off here.
Over 9.50
Total Legs
50 WIN
The two have played each other 5 times in the Premier League this year and none have resulted in a beating with a couple of 6-3s the lowest amount of legs whilst their last three meetings have all been 6-4 or 6-5, so I am backing over 9.50 legs here
20:00 Aston Villa v Olympiakos
No
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
I am actually backing against btts here because Villa are a really strong home side and just generally a strong side whilst Olympiakos have travelled to Fenerbahce, Freiburg and West Ham this season and failed to score, so I am backing against btts in this one.
Aston Villa & No
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
Olympiakos have gone away in Europe to a few good teams thi sseaosn in Fenerbahce, Freiburg and West Ham without scoring a goal and indeed losing the match whilst I think Aston Villa are certainly their strongest opponents yet, so I am backing a home win to nil here.
Aston Villa -1.25
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
I actually think Villa will win this one fairly comfortably because I anticipate Olympiakos will try to keep it tight here but I can't see them stopping a Villa side of this quality and they did lost 1-0 at West Ham and 5-0 at Freiburg away to teams in top European leagues this season and Villa are the strongest side yet, so I am backing Aston Villa against this handicap.
Leon Bailey
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
I think Bailey has been impressive all season and 15 goals off the winger is a pretty strong return for him. I expect Olympiakos to sit deep here, therefore I can see him getting a lot of the ball and he does have 4 conference league goals this season, so I am backing him first goal in this one.
Aston Villa #2-0
50 WIN
Olympiakos have failed to score at Freiburg, West Ham and Fenerbahce away from home this season, so I can't see them scoring against a better team in Aston Villa. I think Villa are really strong at home and given Olympiakos lost 1-0 at West Ham then I think this could end in a 2-0 home win.
20:00 Fiorentina v Club Brugge
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
Fiorentina aren't a great side at home and I don't expect anything but a cagey affair here because Brugge has been strong away from home in Europe whilst Fiorentina couldn't break Plzen down in either match until extra time in the last round, so I am backing under 2.50 goals here.
Draw & No
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
I don't think Fiorentina are great and they definitely have struggled to break teams down this season. They played out two 0-0s in the last round against Plzen and I think Club Brugge will come here to frustrate and take a 0-0 too, so I am backing draw and against btts here.
Club Brugge 0.50
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
Brugge has done really well in Europe this season and gone to places like Bodo/Glimt, Besiktas and PAOK winning them all whilst Fiorentina aren't a brilliant side and they've struggled at home in Europe to break teams down, so I would back Club Brugge with this handicap.
No Goalscorer
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
I am backing no goalscorer here because Brugge has been really strong away from home in Europe this season and I think they’ll be happy with a 0-0 here whilst Fiorentina don’t have a dependable goalscorer which is why they were taken to extra time in the last round after two 0-0 matches against Plzen, so I am anticipating a goalless match here and backing no goalscorer.
Draw #0-0
50 WIN
I am backing 0-0 here because I think Club Brugge would be happy with the draw whilst Fiorentina do struggle to break teams down as shown by the two 0-0s in the last round whilst Club Brugge have been strong (defensively) on the road in Europe this season.
20:00 Marseille v Atalanta
Atalanta
50 WIN
Marseille are one of those teams that are stronger at home but I am backing an Atalanta win here because they’re a side that play with no fear and they turned around a cup match to beat Fiorentina last week whilst they thumped Liverpool 3-0 at Anfield, so I think they can take the win here.
Yes
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
I am definitely backing btts here because Marseille are an extremely strong side at home and have players they can rely on to score goals but Atalanta are scoring machines and concede plenty, so I would be shocked if both teams don’t end up on the scoresheet in this one.
Atalanta & Yes
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
Marseille are playing well and they’re really strong at home whilst generally Atalanta are a side that leak a goal, so I can see the home side scoring but I do think Atalanta are a better side and they showed with their 3-0 win at Anfield that they’re afraid of nobody, so I think this will be an away win and btts.
Gianluca Scamacca
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
Scamacca is in really hot form at the moment with goals in 7 of his last 10 matches and Atalanta are in top form and a strong side, so I am backing him first goal here.
20:00 Roma v Bayer Leverkusen
Draw
50 WIN
I can’t back a home win here because Bayer Leverkusen are literally unbeaten the entire season so far. I think Roma have been pretty brilliant under De Rossi too though and Dybala makes a big difference to them. I can’t really split these sides, so I am backing a quality draw.
Yes
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
I think these sides are both very good and obviously Bayer Leverkusen are arguably the best team in Europe this season but Roma under De Rossi have been fantastic, so I think there’s so much quality in both sides that btts has to happen here.
Draw & Yes
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
I am backing a draw and btts here because I just think with Roma’s form under De Rossi and the way they knocked Milan out last round combined with Bayer Leverkusen being unbeaten champions in Germany then it’s hard to back either side to lose and there’s so much quality that I think they will both score.
Victor Boniface
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
Bayer Leverkusen have been one of the best teams in Europe this season and obviously are German champions, so I think they’re the safer bet to score first and Boniface will start up front here and he’s scored 18 goals in 30 matches this season and is recently back from injury to make a difference, so I can see him scoring first goal.
Draw #1-1
50 WIN
I could see a 1-1 draw here because Roma do concede but they’ve brilliant under De Rossi and the way they took out Milan last round was fantastic whilst Bayer Leverkusen literally haven’t lost a match this season, so a draw sounds about right and I think 1-1 is fair.
20:15 Michael van Gerwen vs Rob Cross
Rob Cross
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
These two played last week and Cross won 6-2 whilst van Gerwen just genuinely has no played well consistently all years and it commonly in the mid 90 averages, so I think at these odds then it is Cross who should be backed.
Rob Cross 1.50
Handicap 2-way
50 WIN
We saw Cross win 6-2 in their meeting last week and European Trophy at the weekend in Austria suggests there isn’t much that’s likely to change in this meeting, so I think there’s good value in Cross here which is why I am backing him with this handicap.
Draw
Most 180s
50 WIN
I can see a draw on the 180s here because it was a draw in their first meeting of this Premier League, van Gerwen won the 180s in the second and Cross won it in the last, so there’s no consistent victor in this match-up and the total will probably be low anyway, so I am backing a draw.
Over 9.50
Total Legs
50 WIN
Cross won this match 6-2 last week but MvG did miss a whole host of doubles and although I think Cross will win again, I expect that the Dutchman will put in a better performance here and it’ll be closer, so I am backing over 9.50 legs.
20:45 Gerwyn Price vs Luke Humphries
Luke Humphries
Win Match 2-way
50 WIN
Humphries has won all 4 of the competitive matches they’ve played this year and I don’t really see why it would be any different here. Humphries needs the win whilst Price seems to have checked out mentally, so I am backing Humphries.
Luke Humphries -1.50
Handicap 2-way
50 WIN
I am backing Humphries against this handicap because I don’t think anyone in the draw scores better than him whilst they’ve played three times over the last two months and he’s won by at least 3 legs in all of them.
Luke Humphries
Most 180s
50 WIN
Humphries has won on the 180s front easily in their last three meetings and I think he’ll probably win this comfortably, so I have to back Humphries to hit the most 180s here.
Under 6.50
Total 180s
50 WIN
I am definitely backing under 6.50 180s here because I think Price has checked out somewhat when it comes to the Premier League and Humphries is normally on it and tends to win this match comfortably, so I am backing few legs and not many 180s.
Under 9.50
Total Legs
50 WIN
I am backing under 9.50 legs here because the last two meetings between these two have seen Humphries win by 4 legs and the one before that was by 3 legs. Humprhies has all the motivation to win and Price has none of that, so I am backing under 9.50 legs here.
3rd May 2024
17:30 Hamburg v St Pauli
Hamburg
50 WIN
This is a huge match for Hamburg because realistically then only a win is going to keep their promotion chances alive whilst St Pauli are top of the league but they have lost 3 of their last 6 away matches and have been erratic, so I am backing Hamburg to get the win here.
Yes
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
St Pauli have scored in 12/15 away matches this season and they are top of the league whilst Hamburg have scored in 14/15 home matches and rarely keep a clean sheet, so I am backing btts score.
Hamburg & Yes
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
Hamburg have scored in 14/15 home matches this season and conceded in 7 of their last 10 home matches whilst St Pauli have scored in 12/15 away matches, so btts is likely. I do think Hamburg will get the win though because St Pauli have lost 3 of their last 6 away matches, so I am backing a home win and btts here.
Robert Glatzel
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
Hamburg have only failed to score once at home this season and they must win here if promotion is on the cards whilst their main striker Glatzel has 17 goals in 29 matches this season and scored in the reverse fixture, so I am backing him first goal here.
Hamburg #3-1
50 WIN
Neither of these teams go for the defensive approach and the 2-2 in the reverse fixture was probably an indicator of that but I don’t think St Pauli are in the best form right now for title leaders whilst Hamburg need the win here and they’re strong at home, so I think btts is likely and this could end in a 3-1 home win.
19:30 TSG Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig
TSG Hoffenheim
50 WIN
I think Hoffenheim could do with a result after losing in Bochum and they have been strong at home this season whilst whilst I think sitting in and playing on the counter/for set pieces will suit them in this match, so I am backing a home win here.
TSG Hoffenheim & Yes
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
13 of Hoffenheim’s 15 home matches have seen both teams score this season and they haven’t kept a clean sheet whilst 12/15 Leipzig away matches have seen both teams score. I think Hoffenheim being able to be underdogs and just sit in will suit them in this one whilst RB Leipzig conceded too many goals for me, so I am backing a home win and btts here.
Ozan Kabak
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
Hoffenheim have scored in 13/15 home matches whilst Leipzig have conceded in their last 12 away matches, so Hoffenheim scoring the first goal here is more than feasible. Kabak is a CB but Hoffenheim play with three CBs to be a threat from set pieces and he does have three league goals this season, so I think he's worth backing at these odds to score the opening goal.
TSG Hoffenheim #2-1
50 WIN
Both teams have scored in 13/15 Hoffenheim home matches whilst the last 10 Leipzig away matches have seen both teams score, so that’s incredibly likely to happen again here. I do think Hoffenheim will try and keep it tighter than usual though and use their physicality to cut of space and I think they have to quality to pull off a home win, so I am backing a 2-1 Hoffenheim victory.
19:45 Torino v Bologna
Torino
50 WIN
I am actually going to back a Torino win here because I don't think Bologna have been great lately despite the win in Rome and don't score enough goals whilst you could argue the same for Torino but they have only lost twice at home all season and have a lot of pride playing at home, so I am backing the Torino victory here.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
I actually can see over 2.50 goals here despite the fact they’re both defensive looking teams on paper because Bologna have seen over 2.50 goals in 7 of their last 9 away matches in the league and I think Torino will go for this given they’re at home and the pressure off, so I think at these odds then it’s worth backing over 2.50 goals.
Torino & Yes
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
Bologna have seen both teams score in 7 of their last 10 away matches, so even though Torino generally aren't involved in high scoring matches, I think that does make btts worth backing at the odds they are. Torino are the home side where they've only lost twice all season and the pressure is off them, so I am backing a home win and btts here
Alessandro Buongiorno
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
Realistically both of these sides have struggled for goals lately despite Bologna being where they are in the league and the top scorers for these sides only have 11 goals. It could take a set piece to open the scoring in this one and Torino do play with three and Buongiorno does have 3 goals in 26 matches this season and is a tall fairly young CB, so I think he could score first here.
Torino #2-1
50 WIN
I think given how few goals these teams are generally involved with then I think 3 is likely the max amount in this one and given Bologna have seen both teams scoring in 7 of their last 10 away matches whilst Torino are strong at home with just two defeats at home then I am backing a narrow 2-1 home win here.
20:00 Luton v Everton
Everton
50 WIN
Obviously Luton need the points more than Everton but that hasn’t stopped them losing for the last few months whilst Everton have turned it around completely with their recent wins, so I am going for an away win here.
Amadou Onana
Anytime Goalscorer
50 WIN
I think Luton have leaked goals all season and Onana has scored three goals in the league whilst he is an underrated physical threat from set pieces, so I think he is worth backing to score anytime here.
James Tarkowski
Anytime Goalscorer
50 WIN
I think Everton’s two CBs are always worth backing to score in matches because only Arsenal have scored more goals this season. Tarkowski has scored goals against Burnley and Brentford this season, so I think he could score anytime against a side like Luton in a match like this.
Dwight McNeil
First Goalscorer
50 WIN
Everton are at their best when McNeil is playing well which has contributed to the recent three wins of which he scored against Forest. He doesn’t have many this season but Luton give up a lot of chances and I think with the form he’s in then he’ll find the space to get himself chances in and around the box, so I am backing him first goal in this one.
Ashley Young
Player to be Booked
50 WIN
Young is guaranteed to start in this Everton back 4 and realistically he is a bit erratic and given he's picked up 6 yellows and a red card in 28 matches this season then away from home I think he's worth backing to be booked here.
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