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- Odds now at 8/11 that 2024 will be the hottest year there has been
- Data given via the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index
- Warmer air is able to hold more moisture meaning we've seen more rain in the UK
Odds now at 8/11 that 2024 will be the hottest year there has been
2024 could well be the hottest year there has ever been with last month being the world's warmest March on record with temperature records more common now.
March extended the run of monthly temperature records at 10 in-a-row and we may well see 2024 become the hottest there has ever been judging by the numbers.
Betting odds are now given on the potential of this year being the hottest with the latest odds at 8/11 that 2024 will break the overall record.
NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is the marker that we go off, with last year breaking the record with an increase of 1.17C.
| Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8/11 | 57.9% |
| No | 6/4 | 40.0% |
What the expert says...
Data given via the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index
The data is provided by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index and looks at whether 2024 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released.
NASA's explanation of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index is, "Land-Ocean Temperature Index is a measure of how global average temperatures have changed over long periods of time. A temperature anomaly is how much warmer or cooler a particular year was compared to a 30-year average. The temperature anomaly is computed using observations from weather stations for land data"
Previous markets for this have gone off NASA's GISTEMP Surface Temperature Analysis which gives the temperature based on the land-ocean reading that is given on the climate.nasa.gov site.
Warmer air is able to hold more moisture meaning we've seen more rain in the UK
Despite March being the warmest on record globally, the UK has seen non-stop rainfall with the 2024 Winter being warmer and wetter than average.
With Climate Change becoming more and more prevalent it's predicted by the Met Office that winters in the UK will be up to 30% wetter than they were in 1990.
Crown/BBC.
Met Office stats showed that it was much warmer than the average and wetter too with the above graphic giving further detail.
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Jake Ashton
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