I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Sault's Untitled (Rise) Album 13/8 Favourite to recieve the Prize
- Betting Odds are in conflict with popularity on streaming service Spotify
- New research suggests Arlo Parks' Collapsed in Sunbeams has a better chance than bookmaker odds
- Celeste's Not Your Muse is a 10/1 outsider despite being the clear 'most listened' on Spotify and YouTube
Current Betting Odds
The Hyundai Music prize (formerly the Mercury Music Prize) is awarded on the 9th September at the Hammersmith Apollo, and to the musician or band who are deemed to have created 'The Album of the Year'!
Betting on the event has been taking place in the run up, and a clear favourite has been established.
The current favourites with betting sites are a collective of musicians going by the name of SAULT who avoid media interaction but have created a masterpiece in the 'Untitled (Rise)' Album
The current betting odds, one week out from the show, suggest they have a 40% chance of landing the award, and twice that of other nominees Arlo Parks (Collpased in Sunbeams) and Laura Mvula (Pink Noise)
| Artist | Album | Betting Odds | Betting Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sault | Untitled (Rise) | 13/8 | 38.17% |
| Arlo Parks
|
Collapsed In Sunbeams
|
4/1
|
20.00%
|
| Laura Mvula
|
Pink Noise
|
4/1
|
20.00%
|
| Black Country New Road
|
For The First Time
|
6/1
|
14.29%
|
| Ghetts
|
Conflict Of Interest
|
13/2 | 13.33% |
| Floating Points - Pharoah Sanders & The London Symphony Orchestra
|
Promises
|
8/1 | 11.11% |
| Wolf Alice | Blue Weekend | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Nubya Garcia | Source | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Celeste | Not Your Muse | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| Mogwai
|
As The Love Continues
|
16/1
|
6.67% |
| Berwyn | Demotape/Vega | 16/1 | 6.67% |
| Hannah Peel | Fir Wave | 20/1 | 4.76% |
Spotify Listens Data Produces Interesting Odds Comparison
New research into each and every album nominated for the Hyundai Music prize has been undertaken by us to see just how popular each of the artistes listed albums for the awards are.
There are some interesting findings, and the bookmakers favorite for the award, Sault, find themselves some way down the list with Arlo Parks and Celeste Dominating the results.
We took each of the albums, totalled the number of listens each track has had, arrived at a 'listens by track' average, worked out the percentage of total listens each had and converted the percentages to odds to come find some huge conflicts when comparing the bookmakers odds for the prize against odds based purely on Spotify popularity.
| Nominee | Listens per Song | % of Total | Popularity Odds | Bookmakers Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlo Parks - Collapsed in Sunbeams | 9,914,708 | 31.18% | 2.74 | 5.00 |
| Celeste - Not Your Muse | 6,395,560 | 23.51% | 4.25 | 11.00 |
| Wolf Alice - Blue Weekend | 2,897,562 | 10.65% | 9.39 | 11.00 |
| Ghetts | 1,729,741 | 6.36% | 15.73 | 7.50 |
| Black Country New Road | 1,447,262 | 5.32% | 18.80 | 7.00 |
| Sault - Untitled (Rise) | 1,230,628 | 4.52% | 22.11 | 2.62 |
| Floating Points - Promises | 1,049,303 | 3.86% | 25.93 | 9.00 |
| Mogwai - As The Love Continues | 981,122 | 3.61% | 27.73 | 17.00 |
| Laura Mvula - Pink Noise | 521,349 | 1.92% | 52.19 | 5.00 |
| Berwyn - DemoTape/Vega | 493,001 | 1.81% | 55.19 | 17.00 |
| Nubiya Garcia | 481,043 | 1.77% | 56 | 11.00 |
| Hannah Peel | 66,497 | 0.24% | 410 | 21.00 |
The only place the popularity odds and bookmakers odds agree is with BBC Radio 3 presenter Hannah Peel as the outsider in both books.
Don't Discount Celeste
The Mercury Music Prize has never been awarded for popularity, with prizes going to emerging artists and world music protagonists in the main.
That said, nominations are made on the merits of the album and not the artiste, so there is no clear distinction, and 2018 winners Wolf Alice who are of course more established now, have been nominated once again for Blue Weekend. They can't match the popularity of the more mainstream Arlo Parks or Celeste.
Celeste is a former 'Rising Star' Winner at the Brit awards in 2018, she signed to Polydor and caught the attention of last years Mercury Award winner Micheal Kiwanuka. The pedigree is in place and the comparisons to Amy Whinehouse set out her stall to be shock if not popular winner should she assault sault for the title.
