I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- The Next General Election is expected to be in 2024 - Odds on 4/6 to not happen sooner with bookies
- The betting suggests a 66% chance Boris johnson will be in Charge at the next General Election
- Betting sites offer similar odds of Conservatives winning most seats
- Might not be an overall conservative majority though. 11/10 for No overall majority in the betting
The Conservative Party conference begins on Sunday in Manchester and as we go into it, the future looks [I'd better not use 'rosey'] bright for the Conservatives with betting sites offering a range of betting markets across the political betting spectrum.
It would seem that if the odds are right, there is a 30% chance Boris Johnson will be in charge when the Conservatives win the next general election in 2024.
General Election
The date of the next general election is May 2024, as set out by the laws of the land. It can be changed, but betting sites have a market to predict if it might happen sooner and the general consensus with bets placed at 4/6 that it will go ahead as scheduled with betting on the general election offering a wide range of markets
Year of next General Election Betting
It is fascinating to see that the full 5-year term is the favoured outcome by punters when we consider there were no fewer than 4 elections in the 9 years between 2010-2019 but punters are favoring 2024 quite clearly
| Date | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 or later | 1.67 | 60% |
| 2023 | 2.9 | 35% |
| 2022 | 14.5 | 7% |
| 2021 | 1000 | 0.1% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 01/10/2021
Boris Standing Strong
You can also bet on who will be in charge of the Conservatives at the next General Election and despite how much we might hear to the contrary Boris Johnson is consider a very strong favourite to be at the helm when the GE comes along in the yes No betting
Will Boris Johnson be the Conservative Party leader at the next UK general election?
| Will he? | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.4 | 66% |
| No | 2.5 | 38% |
There is plenty of confidence that things will be very much 'as you were' when voters go to the general polls again. Whether this is as much to do with Tory party confidence, or waiting for Labour to organise its ever-present divisions is very much up for debate.
Betting Confidence growing for the Tories
As recently as July you would have been betting at 5/4 that Labour would gain the most seats at the next general election, a 44% chance, but as of the first day of October, you can get closer to 2/1 as confidence is draining out of supporters,
This leaves the conservatives 1/2 favourites to gain the most seats in a clear victory.
Most seats at the next UK general election betting
| Most Seats | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1/2 | 67% |
| Labour | 2/1 | 31% |
| Liberal | 18 | 6% |
Whilst betting odds are getting shorter and the money showing confidence in a strong Conservative challenge to retain power in the house, there is a chink in the bullishness with a very close run thing in betting on the overall majority in the house at the next general Election
Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election?
| Majority | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| No Overall Majority | 6/5 | 46% |
| Conservative | 6/4 | 40% |
| Labour | 6/1 | 14% |
| Liberal Democrat | 100/1 | 1 |
