Jake is a Football and Entertainment betting expert, with a Man City season ticket and a deep knowledge of reality TV betting angles
- Bookies go 11/8 that Boris Johnson leaves role as Prime Minister in 2022
- Keir Starmer is favourite to be the Prime Minister after the next General Election
- It's 4/7 that Boris Johnson is not the Conservative leader at the next General Election
Bookies go 11/8 that Boris Johnson leaves role as Prime Minister in 2022
Local Elections have taken place up and down the UK and early signs are showing positivity for the Labour Council, with the Conservatives losing 122 seats as of 9am on Friday.
Bookmakers are already cutting the odds of Boris Johnson to leave this year, with early prices of 11/8 showing that there's a 42% chance of him going in the next 7 months.
Labour have upped their seats by 34 so far, with Keir Starmer's party looking at the local elections in a positive manner.
| Boris Johnson's Exit Date | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 or Later | 6/5 | 45.5% |
| 2022 | 11/8 | 42.1% |
| 2023 | 5/1 | 16.7% |
With odds of 6/5, it's still favourite in the market that Boris Johnson remains in his seat for at least another 2 years.
As things stand, the next General Election will be on Thursday May 2nd in 2024 so this points to why 2024 or later is the favourite as that will be a chance that he is voted out.
Keir Starmer is favourite to be the Prime Minister after the next General Election
Labour Leader Keir Starmer is the bookies favourite to be the next Prime Minister after the next General Election.
Plenty could happen between now and then though, which is more than likely the reason why it's Starmer who is favourite and not Johnson.
Johnson may not even be the Conservative leader by then and vice versa with Starmer, so there are more options in the betting market.
| Next Prime Minister | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Keir Starmer | 11/8 | 42.1% |
| Boris Johnson | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Liz Truss | 11/1 | 8.3% |
| Rishi Sunak | 12/1 | 7.7% |
| Jeremy Hunt | 14/1 | 6.7% |
Liz Truss is a popular figure in the Conservative Party and it could well be that she is the woman to replace Boris Johnson as leader of the party next.
Reports have suggested that she may even take Rishi Sunak's role in an expected cabinet reshuffle after the local elections this week.
4/7 that Boris Johnson is not the Conservative leader at the next General Election
Boris Johnson has had a tough time over the last few months with Partygate just one of a number of news stories that have hit the PM.
That may well affect the chances of Johnson remaining as PM, with numerous stories coming out every week about Tory MP's wanting Boris Johnson ousted.
Councillor Simon Bosher has stated that the leadership need to "take a good, long hard look in the mirror" to find out why they've lost so many seats.
With odds of 4/7, it's favourite in the market that Boris Johnson will not be leader by the time that the next General Election comes along.
