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- Conservatives are way ahead with a 77% chance of a win
- Lib-Dems 4/1 to win on December 16th voting day
- Labour have only a 2% chance according to bookies and have yet to select a representative
- The 'Party Party' have Joined the race
The date for the North Shropshire by-election has been set for the 16th December whilst Labour leader Kier Starmer scrambles around to find a representative to stand. Meanwhile, Monaco businessman Russell Dean has vowed to relocate to the area should he have success standing for the 'Party Party' representing anti-sleaze and corruption.
The by-election comes following the resignation of former Conservative MP Owen Paterson following allegedly breaking lobbying rules
North Shropshire By-Election Betting Odds
| Party | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 1.30 (3/10) | 76.92% |
| Liberal Democrats | 5.00 (4/1) | 20.00% |
| Labour | 12.00 (11/1) | 8.33% |
| Reform | 26.00 (25/1) | 3.85% |
The Candidate or the Party?
The interesting thing about the situation that has arisen for this constituency is that it has been an ultra-safe seat for the Tories for over 20 years, in fact growing in strength consistently since that time.
Whilst the conservatives are overwhelming favourites to retain the seat in the by-election, one has to consider if the voting public have been supporting the person or the party.
Given the reason for Owen Pattersons' departure that Party will be praying it is they who were supported in the main and they can retain this blue stronghold.
