Many people bet based on headlines or hunches. I dig into research and market moves behind political odds & manager markets, so you can back decisions, not guesses.
- Luis Antonio Tagle is the 7/1 favourite to be the next Pope
- Pope Francis says he has no intention of retiring
- Papal name of next Pope favourite to be Francis once again
Luis Antonio Tagle is the 7/1 favourite to be the next Pope
Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle is once again favourite with bookmakers to be the next Pope with the betting market reopened on who will take over from Pope Francis in the famous role next.
Tagle has been speculated to be the next Pope over the past 18 months and there are a number of familiar faces in the betting market who have appeared multiple times before.
Cardinal Secretary of State for the Vatican, Pietro Parolin, had moved into favourite towards the back end of 2023 but now features nowhere near the top of the betting market.
Hungarian Cardinal of the Catholic Church Peter Erdo is the second favourite in the betting market with a European dominated market behind Tagle at the top.
| Next Pope After Francis I | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Antonio Tagle (Phillipines) | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Peter Erdo (Hungary) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Angelo Scola (Italy) | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Cristoph Schonborn (Austria) | 11/1 | 8.3% |
| Gianfranco Ravasi (Italy) | 20/1 | 4.8% |
What the expert says..
Pope Francis says he has no intention of retiring
The current Pope, Pope Francis, has said in the last few months that he has no intention of retiring and already laid out plans for his tomb outside the Vatican.
The 87-year-old's comments point towards him staying as the Pope until death with Pope Benedict XVI the only Pope in the modern era to have resigned from the position.
Benedict was the first pontiff in 600 years to retire from the role rather than die in office and he sadly passed away at the age of 95 back in 2022.
Papal name of next Pope favourite to be Francis once again
Francis is favourite once again to be the name of the Pope with the current Pope the first Francis that there has been with his official name in some quarters Francis I.
The current Pope became the first to use a new name since Lando back in 913-914, more than 1000 years ago and we may well see another Francis immediately.
Current betting odds say there's a 44% chance that the next Pope is a Francis with further specials offered around one of the biggest roles in religion.
| Papal Name of Next Pope | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Francis | 5/4 | 44.4% |
| John Paul | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Leo | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| John | 12/1 | 7.7% |
