I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- John Whaites odds tumble to 11/2 from 14/1 after the public see him dance with Johannes Radebe in opening show
- Rose Ayling-Ellis becomes an even stronger 3/1 favourite with bookmakers
- Betting sites turn their backs on Tilly Ramsay as she drifts to 40/1 from 12/1
- Former Favourite Tom Fletcher now only 5th most popular in the betting
Market Moves
The pre-recorded Show 1 of this season's Strictly Come Dancing aired to the public on Saturday night and bookmakers reacted immediately by shaking up the betting odds, with a massive move for John Thwaite, who along with Johannes Radebe debited the first ever all male dance pairing on the show.
14/1 prior to the show going on air, the odds on Whaite and Radebe winning the show more than halved into just 11/2.
Strictly Come Dancing Betting Odds Before and After Show 1
| Celebrity | Pre Show Odds | ⬆️ or ⬇️ | New Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rose Ayling-Ellis | 9/2 | ⬇️ | 3/1 | 25% |
| Rhys Stephenson | 13/2 | ⬇️ | 4/1 | 20% |
| John Whaite | 14/1 | ⬇️ | 11/2 | 15.3% |
| Adam Peaty | 9/1 | ⬇️ | 15/2 | 11.7% |
| Tom Fletcher | 5/1 | ⬆ | 8/1 | 11% |
| Robert Webb | 8/1 | ⬆ | 9/1 | 10% |
| AJ Odudu | 9/1 | ⬆ | 10/1 | 9% |
| Katie McGlynn | 12/1 | ↔ | 12/1 | 7.6% |
| Nina Wadia | 25/1 | ⬇️ | 16/1 | 5.8% |
| Ugo Monye | 14/1 | ⬆ | 20/1 | 4.7% |
| Dan Walker | 14/1 | ⬆ | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Tilly Ramsay | 12/1 | ⬆ | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Greg Wise | 20/1 | ⬆ | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Sara Davies | 25/1 | ⬆ | 40/1 | 2.4% |
| Judi Love | 33/1 | ⬆ | 50/1 | 1.9% |
**Probability percentage figures include bookmakers overround - odds correct at 20/9/2021
Other positive market movers include,
- pre-show favourite Rose Ayling-Ellis who has shortened from 9/2 into an even harder 3/1 to take the glitterball trophy
- Rhys Stephenson Odds cut in half from 13/2 to 7/2
- Olympic Swimmer Adam Peaty clipped into 15/2 from 9/1
- Outside Nina Wadia shortened into 16/1 from 25/1
Rose Ayling-Ellis moved to favouritism with betting sites just a week before the show began when the professional dancer partnerships were announced. Punters have flocked to bet on her to win since the first show was aired, and another who has had a massive move in the betting is Rhys Stephenson, whose odds have more than halved
The Outsiders
Where there are winners there have to be losers, and to balance the betting books there have to be contestants whose chances are slipping away according to the bookmakers.
The biggest name on the list would have to be the long-time favourite for the Glitterball, Tom Fletcher. He has occupied the favourites spot in the betting odds since the very first announcement of betting on the show, but now has four other contestants ahead of him in the betting, and has drifted from favourite to now a 8/1 chance.
Tilly Ramsay has yet to dance but already her odds have moved in a negative fashion more then any other contestant, as from a relatively safe looking 12/1 she is now one of the outsiders at 4/1
Odds on the Drift
- Tilly Ramsay's chance is almost gone having drifted to a 40/1 outsider from 12/1
- Tom Fletcher out to 8/1 from 5/1
- Dan Walker 14-1 to 25/1
- Judi love is now total 50/1 outsider after moving from 33/1
