I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Macron brings up Pensions again, Bookies react as his price slides out
- Macron was just 1/10 for success at the elections, which has lengthened to 2/5 in wake of pension news
- Melechon wants to lower the pension age to 60 in France, Macron, raising to 65
With steady and consistent support in the French Presidential betting markets, Emmanual Macron gained continued support from political betting fans throughout last year to see his probability of winning rise from 50% right up to 92% as election day drew closer.
However, with recent news of pension reform plans, some of that support has dropped off, and while he was as short as 1/10 to be re-elected at the peak as recently as the 25th March, there has been a sharp drop-off in support in the last 2 weeks with betting sites, and his odds have lengthened to 2/5, that a probability based on odds of just 72%, from 92% 2 weeks ago.
Let's not get it wrong, he is still a very short-priced favorite to be elected, but it is a remarkable move in the betting nonetheless.
French Presidential Betting Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Emmanual Macron | 1.40 | 71.43% |
| Marine Le Pen | 4.60 | 21.74% |
| Eric Zemmour | 90 | 1.11% |
| Jean-Luc Melechon | 120 | 0.83% |
What is the Pension Reform
The reason mention of the pension is so hotly linked to the betting odds and the chance of candidates winning in France is because they have one of the most generous pension plans in Europe, and the world for that matter, where the retirement age os just 62. The plan is hugely expensive for the country and Macron breached the subject previously, causing industrial action on a national scale before the COVID pandemic put paid t the idea.
Macron has bravely raised the subject once again, looking to combine the complicated 42 individual state pension schemes into a single variation and raise the retirement age to 65 in line with almost all European countries.
In opposition, Jean-Luc Melechon is suggesting lowering the age to 60, which surely couldn't be sustainable, but will ultimately give the outsider some votes.
