I've spent over 20 years inside the betting industry. I'll guide you to avoid the hype, ignore the noise, and steer clear of the common pitfalls that catch out everyday punters.
- Bookies offer 8/1 for ALDI to have most YouTube views, and they are Beating John Lewis right now
- ALDI has 2.3 Million views and John Lewis 2.1 million views of Unexpected Guest'
- Marks & Spencers up to 1.7m views but bookies price still 10/1
- 10/1 for Emma Raducanu to win SPOTY and Sports Direct to be most viewed Xmas ad according to bookmakers
- 'Unexpected Guest' Gained 400k Views in the last 7 days
The price offered by bookmakers for the John Lewis Christmas advert to be the most-watched on Youtube by Christmas day has drifted given ALDI currently winning the race.
The price is still short though, but at 1.07 it has drifted out from an initial 1.03, suggesting that betting sites could be thinking there will be a stronger challenge than initially considered.
That is not surprising given that ALDI are now leading the race with 2.3 million views against John Lewis's 2.1 million at the time of writing
Current Christmas Ad YouTube Views and Betting Odds
YouTube views from official YouTube Channels and correct as of 19th November
| Advert | YouTube Views | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Lewis | 2,100,000 | 1.07 | 93.46% |
| ALDI | 2,300,000 | 8/1 | 11.11% |
| Marks & Spencers | 1,700,000 | 10/1 | 9.09% |
| McDonalds | 304,000 | 12/1 | 7.69% |
| Boots | 476,000 | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| Sports Direct | 147,000 | 20/1 | 4.76% |
| TK Maxx | 50,000 | 50/1 | 1.96% |
93% Probability
Odds of 1.07 related to an implied probability of over 93%, so you could say bookmakers are pretty confident that they are going to win this race but no one will be getting rich at this price.
Albeit a 7% return is not bad, it does mean that for every £1 you bet, you would have £1.07 returned, money probably better spent on Mince Pies and Christmas Pud.
Emma Raducanu Special
Some bookmakers are also jumping on the Emma Raducanu to win Sports Personality of the Year and combining it with her [brief] appearance in the Sports Direct Christmas advert which is packed with sporting stars.
You can get betting odds of 10/1 that the Sports Direct advert will have more views than John Lewis at the time of the awards ceremony (19th December) and for The US Open winner to be named SPOTY
Tailing in with almost 2 million fewer views right now, the 10/1 betting odds on offer, do not look too appealing
