5:45 Southwell Tips

My only bet of the day comes in the form of SAILOR SONG at 5/4. King Of Thebes is an interesting newcomer for Godolphin, but is their 2nd string and C Planas has a poor record on fancied 3yo’s (8% SR, A/E 0.26), meanwhile Al Azd needs to overcome R Scott’s 4% SR (A/E 0.46) on Saturdays. It’s near enough impossible to make a case for the outsiders so SS could win by default as well as on merit; the son of Zarak is twice raced, firstly at Southwell in February where he finished and underwhelming 9.25l 4th of 6 and then put in a much improved 1.5l 2nd of 9 at Doncaster last month. I’m expecting further improvement here and a number of positive fav stats for the sire boost claims further; most notably a 5/8 record (A/E 1.81) on flat + left handed courses.

On all known form, Al Azd sets the standard, and any replication of his recent starts should see him win here. It's hard to take unraced horses on good faith based on pedigree and price, but if there was to be a danger it would be King of Thebes. A 1.5 million guinea purchase, he interestingly has already been gelded and wears cheek pieces from the off, so it will be interesting to see how he shapes up today.

Gelded but cost 1.5 million gns and related to classy types. Has to be rated a look for a yard with 4 from last 6 on the AW and a young claimer 4 from last 12 rides here.