Heidenheim v Bayern Munich Tips

Bayern Munich are with 7 wins in the past 8 games and they win today this friendly with Heidenheim a second league team, fhey defeated in 5 of the previous 7 meetings.

Last season both teams met in the Bundesliga and the match ended in a 3-2 draw. Heidenheim are now in Bundesliga 2 and have played competitive matches. Since this match is at home, they might not lose this one.

Bayern generate 2.35 xG and score 2.6 goals per match. Heidenheim at home produce 1.42 xG but concede 1.8 goals and 14.8 shots. Bayern matches average 3.7 goals, with 8 Over 2.5 in their last 10. Heidenheim have 6 Over 2.5 in their last 8. Projected combined xG: 3.1-3.4, making Over 2.5 the statistically strongest angle.

heindenheim have had under in 4 of their past 10 matches and with home advantage they could look for a low scoring game

Heidenheim have conceded seven goals across their opening two matches: a 4-3 win over Osnabrück and a 1-4 defeat at Hertha. Their coach criticised the defensive level publicly afterwards. They have still scored five in those same two games. Bayern arrive for their final warm-up four days before the Supercup, with Musiala and Laimer carrying knocks from the Leipzig match, so heavy second-half rotation is likely. That rotation is the case for this bet rather than against it: a weakened Bayern back line raises Heidenheim's chance of the one goal that settles it. The honest argument against is that this is a friendly rather than a competitive fixture, and the teams are unknowable until an hour before kick-off. The last competitive meeting finished 3-3. At 1.80 the price implies 56%; the matchup supports nearer 60%.

Last time both teams met at Bayern Munich the match ended 3-3. Today the match is being played at Heidenheim, and the latter defeated Osnabrück 4-3 at home in 2. Bundesliga. I have a feeling they will walk away with a draw.