World No. 1 Jon Rahm A +700 Favorite To Win The 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational

The PGA TOUR’s best return to action this week with 44 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) Top 50 players competing in the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida. One of the 13 designated “elevated events,” with a purse of $20M, only next week’s THE PLAYERS Championship has a larger pot of all the official money events this season. However, with the large purse and deep field comes stiff competition. Given the current odds being offered by sportsbooks, only four golfers have at least a five percent chance to win this week.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

The 2022-23 PGA TOUR season is off to a historically great start for new OWGR No. 1 and FedExCup Standings leader Jon Rahm. The 28 year-old Spaniard has entered six official events, registering three wins – Sentry Tournament of Champions, The American Express, and The Genesis Invitational – in a single season for the first time in his career and has yet to finish outside the Top 10. Rahm is the first player to record three TOUR wins before March in a calendar year since Johnny Miller in 1975 and the first TOUR player to win in consecutive weeks since Rory McIlroy accomplished the feat last year. The only possible cause for concern might be that Rahm has only previously played in this event once – a T-17 finish last season. Nevertheless, at +700, the oddsmakers are backing Rahm to continue his dominating form in Florida this week.

If not for Jon Rahm’s incredible play, the headline story of this young 2022-23 PGA TOUR season might very well be OWGR No. 2 Scottie Scheffler. In his last six TOUR events, the 2022 PGA TOUR Player of the Year has one win – defending his title at the WM Phoenix Open – four Top 10s, and never finished worse than T-12. The 26 year-old American finished T-15 at the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational in what was ultimately the final PGA TOUR event before the COVID-19 pandemic caused a worldwide shutdown, and won the event last year. With a win this week, he would become the eighth men’s golfer to win this event multiple times and the first to win it in consecutive years since Matt Every in 2014 and 2015. At +1100, Scheffler returns to Orlando at No. 5 in the FedExCup Standings with his sights set on reclaiming OWGR No. 1 status.

No golfer entered the 2023 calendar year with more momentum than 2022 FedExCup Playoffs Champion Rory McIlroy. After winning at East Lake Golf Club for the third time in his professional career, the 33 year-old from Northern Ireland proceeded to win THE CJ CUP in South Carolina last October and ascend to No. 1 in the OWGR yet again. Since then, McIlroy has spent the majority of his time playing – and playing well – on the DP World Tour. However, in his two PGA TOUR starts of 2023, McIlroy has finished T-32 at the WM Phoenix Open and T-29 at The Genesis Invitational. While these would be considered solid performances for most golfers on TOUR, Rory McIlroy is not most golfers. At +950, the OWGR No. 3 has the second-best odds to put his recent disappointing performances behind him and improve his current place of No. 23 in the FedExCup Standings.

While he might not yet possess quite the same name recognition as the likes of McIlroy, Rahm and Scheffler, Max Homa is quietly having one of the best seasons on TOUR. The 32 year-old American already has two wins – the Fortinet Championship and the Famers Insurance Open – for the second consecutive season, a runner-up finish at The Genesis Invitational and another Top 5 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Currently No. 2 in the FedExCup Standings and No. 8 in the OWGR, at +1900, the oddsmakers are assigning a five percent chance that Homa earns his third win of the season this week in Florida.

At +3600, Tyrell Hatton is unlikely to attract the most money this week. The 31 year-old from England is currently No. 99 in the FedExCup Standings and No. 25 in the OWGR. Hatton currently has just one PGA TOUR win to his name, but it was a one-stroke victory over Marc Leishman at the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Furthermore, the Englishman only has two TOUR runner-ups in his career, but one of them was last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Something about this event, about this course, brings out the best in Tyrell Hatton, and it is a storyline to watch this week.

While not in the field this week, it is worth noting that Tiger Woods has won the Arnold Palmer Invitational a record eight times, most recently in 2013.