Succession Betting Odds: Series Finale Promises A Fight To The Death, Kendall and Shiv Roy Close As CEO Favorites

Updated: 783 Entertainment & TV

After four seasons of corporate chess, will a new king will be crowned in the show's final episode?

Succession Betting Odds: Series Finale Promises A Fight To The Death, Kendall and Shiv Roy Close As CEO Favorites
Michael Calabrese US Content Manager

Experienced sports journalist, College sports expert and broadcaster, hailing from Pennsylvania

  • Against all odds, Shiv has emerged as a real threat to become the next Waystar Royco CEO, thanks to her alliance with Lukas Matsson.
  • Kendall's recent moves are reminiscent of his father's, but does he have enough leverage to kill the GoJo deal and emerge as the CEO?
  • Roman may be spiraling but he could help either his brother or his sister realize their corporate dreams in the series finale.

The penultimate episode of Succession's fourth and final season was an emotional gut punch. Roman finally cracked under the enormous weight of his grief and his family wasn't much of a comfort. Kendall rubbed his nose in that very public display of emotion, caring more about the GoJo deal and his leverage (or lack thereof) with Jaryd Mencken than his brother's shattered psyche. Shiv was slightly more supportive but she is embroiled in a high-stakes game of her own with Lukas Matsson. She has cobbled together a relationship with the tech billionaire and delivered solid advice and interesting ideas at every turn. Will her reward be a seat at the head of the Waystar Royco table or is she just walking into an ambush next episode? Sportsbooks have responded to the latest episode by significantly altering the Waystar Royco CEO odds.  

Who will be the head of Waystar Royco by the end of Season 4?

Character Moneyline Probability
Kendall Roy -200 66.67%
Siobhan Roy
+300 16.67%
Lukas Matsson
+300 16.67%
Co-CEOs
+1000 9.09%
Roman Roy +1200 7.69%
Frank Vernon +3000 3.23%
Tom Wamsgans
+5000
1.96%
Karl Muller
+5000
1.96%
Caroline Collingwood +10000 0.99%
Greg Hirsch +10000 0.99%
Gerri Kellman
+25000
0.4%
Connor Roy +25000 0.4%

Just last week, Kendall Roy was the runaway favorite at -550, but those odds have shrunk down to -200, shifting the probability from 84.62% to 66.67%. But the real story, from an odds perspective, is that Shiv has masterfully architected a scenario in which she could ride GoJo and Matsson's coattails all the way to the "American CEO" role at Waystar. Last week she sat at +3000 with a less than a 4% likelihood of nabbing the top job, but as of today she is tied with Matsson at +300 (16.67% implied probability). She has deftly navigated a minefield that now includes her cozying up to Mencken and explaining how her pregnancy would have no impact on her ability to lead the company, all while finishing Matsson's sentences when he's veering off course in crucial conversations. Handling Matsson and Mencken is just a prelude to the out-and-out war on deck with her brothers and the board. All we know for certain is that both Shiv and Kendall are ready to do battle in the series finale with all of their chips in the middle of the table. 

A Shiv-Tom Divorce In Season 4

These two have inflicted so much emotional trauma on one another this season, it's hard to tell when they're being genuine with each other anymore. But Shiv's kindness to an emotionally and physically drained Tom at the end of the last episode indicates that with so much at stake for her professionally, she may not have it in her to twist the knife when it comes to their marriage. That kind of killer instinct needs to be saved for the boardroom and not a divorce court. To that end, we've seen the Shiv-Tom divorce market cool from a 50/50 coin flip last week, to the more likely event being "business as usual" between the two. 

A Shiv-Tom Divorce Moneyline Probability
Yes +225 30.77%
No -300 75%

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