Scottie Scheffler Is A +700 Favorite To Win The World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play

The calendar says March. In the U.S., that means only one thing: it is time to fill out your brackets! However, with tournament favorites such as Kansas, Purdue, Marquette, and Arizona all eliminated before even reaching the Sweet 16, there is a good chance your bracket is already busted. Fans wishing for a do-over are in luck as the madness makes its way onto the golf course at the Austin Country Club this week in the form of the World Golf Championships (WGC)-Dell Technologies Match Play. More than 80% of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) Top 50 are included in the 64-player field which means this bracket is shaping up to potentially be just as unpredictable as the college basketball versions. Given the current odds being offered by sportsbooks, only half a dozen golfers have at least a five percent chance to win this week.

The Valspar Championship Odds

One year ago, Scottie Scheffler was bursting onto the PGA TOUR scene earning his first two career victories at the WM Phoenix Open and the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Carrying that momentum forward, Scheffler went on to win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play and, ultimately, the Masters on his way to earning 2021-22 PGA TOUR Player of the Year honors. This year is proving to be more of the same for the 26-year-old American who returns to the Austin Country Club – just down the road from where he played his collegiate golf at the University of Texas – ranked No. 1 in the OWGR and No. 3 in the FedExCup Playoff Points List. Scheffler has finished no worse than T-12 in each of his past eight starts including wins at the WM Phoenix Open in mid-February and THE PLAYERS Championship just two weeks ago. Ranking first on TOUR in a variety of statistical categories including strokes gained off-the-tee, strokes gained tee-to-green, greens in regulation percentage and Round 2 scoring average, Scheffler is the favorite (+700) to repeat this week at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.

While Scheffler is the reigning PGA TOUR Player of the Year, Jon Rahm is in the pole position for the award this year. One month ago, following The Genesis Invitational, the 28-year-old Spaniard had recorded three wins – the Sentry Tournament of Champions, The American Express, and The Genesis Invitational – and three more Top 10s in his six 2022-23 PGA TOUR starts. Like Scheffler, Rahm currently ranks first on TOUR in a variety of categories including total strokes gained, scoring average, par 3 scoring average, Round 1 scoring average and Back 9 scoring average. Rahm has yet to miss a single putt (277/277) from three feet or closer. He has looked human in his most recent starts, though, finishing T-39 at Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard and then withdrawing from THE PLAYERS Championship due to a stomach illness after a one-under first round. Nevertheless, at +1000, the OWGR No. 2 and FedExCup Playoff Points List leader has the second-best odds to win in his return to the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play in Austin this week, where he finished T-9 last year. 

While Scheffler and Rahm have earned the majority of headlines so far this season, Rory McIlroy entered the 2023 calendar year with the most hype. And for good reason, as the 33-year-old from Northern Ireland won THE CJ CUP in South Carolina last October and reclaimed his No. 1 OWGR positon. Since returning to PGA TOUR action in February, though, McIlroy has as many missed cuts (THE PLAYERS Championship) as Top 25s (1). Ranking first on TOUR in driving distance and going for the green, McIlroy has been very good from tee-to-green so far this season. Putting has been a different story, though, and has led to McIlroy deciding to change his putter heading into this week’s event. The OWGR No. 3 won the WGC-Cadillac Match Play in 2015, and at +1200, he will be hoping the putting change helps him get back to his winning ways.

Scheffler, Rahm and McIlroy are the favorites, but Patrick Cantlay (+1500), Max Homa (+1600) and Collin Morikawa (+1900) are all poised to make deep runs in the bracket this week as well. However, a dark horse this week might be Taylor Montgomery (+10000).

In 14 TOUR starts this season, Taylor Montgomery has registered two Top 5s – the Fortinet Championship in September and The American Express in January – four Top 10s and eight Top 25s. In his most recent start at THE PLAYERS Championship, the 28-year-old American was in the Top 5 on the Back 9 on Sunday afternoon before a disastrous stretch of bogey, double bogey and quadruple bogey on the 15th, 16th and 17th holes, respectively, ultimately finishing T-44. The two-time PGA TOUR winner is not favored to make it out of a group that includes Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry and MacKenzie Hughes; however, his excellent putting this season – ranking first on TOUR in putting average, one-putt percentage and putts per round and second in strokes gained putting – makes him an interesting dark horse candidate at +10000.

The NCAA DI Men’s & Women’s Basketball Tournaments culminate in Houston and Dallas, respectively, in two weeks. However, for now, all bracket roads lead to Austin, and with no match play events on the official 2024 regular season schedule, it is unclear when this bracket-type event will return to the PGA TOUR, if ever. Enjoy the madness!