Justin Thomas +1000 Favorite To Win The 2023 Valspar Championship

Sandwiched between The Players Championship and the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play – two events with at least a $20M purse – is the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course). Despite many of the PGA TOUR’s top players taking a break this week, there is still $8.1M and 500 FedExCup points at stake in Palm Harbor, Florida. Given the current odds being offered by sportsbooks, only four golfers have better than a five percent chance to win this weekend.

The Valspar Championship Odds

In what can only be described as a pedestrian start to the 2022-23 season, at least by his lofty standards, former Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) No. 1 Justin Thomas has just one Top 15 finish in seven PGA TOUR starts; a fourth place showing at the WM Phoenix Open in mid-February. That is a far cry from the 2021-22 season during which Thomas finished in the Top 10 in 10 of his 21 PGA TOUR starts, including a win at the PGA Championship, his second career major victory, and a T-5 finish at the TOUR Championship to end the season. However, despite only being ranked No. 66 in the FedExCup Playoff points list, at +1000, the 29 year-old Thomas is the favorite this week competing against a relatively weak field as only five of the Top 25 players in the OWGR are teeing it up at Innisbrook. With only two wins since the start of 2021, JT could really use career win no. 16 to jumpstart his 2022-23 season.

Like Thomas, Jordan Spieth is also a 29 year-old American, former OWGR No. 1 whose 2022-23 season is not off to the best start relative to his high expectations. With as many missed cuts (two) as Top 10s (WM Phoenix Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard), Spieth has been boom or bust in his eight PGA TOUR starts so far this season. However, Spieth has a history of performing well at this event. He finished T-7 in 2013 when it was known as the Tampa Bay Championship presented by EverBank and then registering his second career win – a playoff against Sean O’Hair and Patrick Reed – at the Valspar Championship during his historic five-win 2014-15 season on his way to earning 2015 PGA TOUR Player of the Year honors. At +1200, the current OWGR No. 14 is seeking to become just the fifth men’s golfer to win this event twice.

Despite having missed the cut in two of his last three PGA TOUR starts, Sam Burns enters the Valspar Championship with the third-best odds to win at +1500. Why? Because half of the 26 year-old American’s four career PGA TOUR victories have come at Innisbrook. Additionally, those two victories came in the past two seasons. With the 2020 Valspar Championship being canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the last time someone other than Sam Burns won this event was when Paul Casey went back-to-back in 2018 and 2019. Currently No. 15 in the OWGR and No. 68 in the FedExCup Playoff points list, a return to the Copperhead Course is exactly what Burns needs earn his fifth career PGA TOUR victory.

Thomas, Spieth and Burns are the favorites, but Adam Hadwin (+2800) and Davis Riley (+3100) have played well at the Valspar Championship and have the experience to put together another strong performance at Innisbrook in 2023.

Other than Sam Burns and Paul Casey, who is no longer a member of the PGA TOUR, the most recent winner of the Valspar Championship is Adam Hadwin in 2017. That is the only PGA TOUR victory of the 35 year-old Canadian’s career; however, with three Top 10s and two more Top 25s in 11 starts, Hadwin’s 2022-23 season is off to as good of a start as any of this week’s competitors. At +2800, the OWGR No. 61 will be keen to return to Innisbrook, where he finished T-7 in 2022.

Davis Riley is another golfer in this week’s field who has to be excited about returning to Innisbrook. Since turning pro in 2019, the 26 year-old American has registered seven Top 10s and 13 Top 25s. His best career finish is a playoff loss to Sam Burns resulting in a runner-up finish at the 2022 Valspar Championship. New this season, only the Top 70 in the FedExCup Playoff points list after the regular season qualify for the FedEx St. Jude Championship Playoff event. There is still a long way to go this season, but Davis, currently ranked No. 86, will be hoping to make a move this week at a course he has enjoyed playing recently.