Jon Rahm Is The Heavy Favorite In The Mexico Open

The PGA TOUR heads to Vallarta, Mexico, this week for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. The field consists of only three golfers in the top 20 of the FedExCup standings – Jon Rahm (No. 1), Tony Finau (11) and Wyndham Clark (14) – resulting in one of the most top-heavy events of the season so far with respect to odds to win. Given the current odds being offered by sportsbooks, those three are the only golfers with better than a four percent chance to win. With the less prolific field, comes a relatively modest purse of $7.7M. However, the winner will still earn 500 FedExCup points.

The Mexico Open

Last year, Jon Rahm made history when he shot a 17-under 267 at Vidanta, a 72-hole course record. At +290, oddsmakers are assigning better than one in four chance that Jon Rahm makes more history this week by becoming the first men’s golfer to win the Mexico Open multiple times since Stewart Cink (1996 and 1999) and the first to repeat at this event since Tony Lema (1961 and 1962). Rahm’s history-making efforts have not been restricted to only Mexico, though. The 28-year-old collected his second career major championship earlier this month, joining Seve Ballesteros, José María Olazábal, and Sergio Garcia as the only Spaniards to win a Green Jacket and now trails only Ballesteros (5) on Spain’s golf major championship career wins list. In addition to winning at Augusta, Rahm also won The American Express, The Genesis Invitational, and the Sentry Tournament of Champions bringing his season win total to four – twice as many as any other men’s golfer on TOUR. Rahm currently sits atop the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and FedExCup standings with seven top 10s in 11 starts this season. He ranks first on TOUR in total strokes gained (2.421) and scoring average (68.16) and is in the top 20 in driving distance (310.6), strokes gained approach to green (1.102), greens in regulation percentage (73.12%) and strokes gained putting (.572). While he is not required to scramble often, Rahm ranks 205th on TOUR in scrambling from the rough (42.55%). Last season, Scottie Scheffler racked up four wins by the end of April, including the Masters, and then failed to win another PGA TOUR event the rest of the year. A win in Mexico this week spares Rahm from potentially facing that same narrative this season.

While Rahm set the 72-hole course record last year, it is Tony Finau who jointly holds the 18-hole course record after shooting a 63 on Sunday in 2022 on his way to a T2 finish. At +850, the five-time PGA TOUR winner is the only golfer other than Rahm whom the oddsmakers are assigning better than a five percent chance to win in Mexico. Finau began the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season in November with a missed cut at the World Wide Technology Championship and a win at the Cadence Bank Houston Open the next week. In the 10 events since, the 33-year-old American has registered two top 10s (the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Farmers Insurance Open) and has failed to finish in the top 25 only twice. Currently ranked No. 16 in the OWGR and No. 11 in the FedExCup standings, Finau’s consistent play has him ranked first on TOUR in strokes gained approach to green (1.143) and in the top 20 in total strokes gained (1.936), scoring average (69.29) and putting average (1.711). Aside from having to compete against Rahm, the biggest cause for concern is that the only two events since November in which Finau has finished outside the top 25 are his two most recent starts: T26 at the Masters and T31 and the RBC Heritage.

Jon Rahm is the heavy betting favorite and Tony Finau is the clear-cut number two, but last year’s co-runner-up Brandon Wu (+6500) returns to Vidanta Vallarta again this season as an interesting dark horse.

As mentioned earlier, Tony Finau shares the 18-hole course record at Vidanta Vallarta after shooting a 63 in the final round last year. The golfer with whom he shares that record? Brandon Wu, who also shot 63 on Sunday in 2022 on his way to his first career runner-up finish on TOUR. Since turning pro in 2019, the now 26-year-old California native has played in 56 events and officially joined the TOUR in 2022. This season, Wu has made 13/19 cuts, registered three top 25s, and earned his second career runner-up finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. While he is only ranked No .102 in the OWGR, the American is currently 65th in the FedExCup standings, which would be good enough for a place in the FedExCup Playoffs. Wu’s stats across the board do not measure up to the likes of Rahm or Finau, but the experience he gained at this event last year makes him an interesting golfer to watch this year.