Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are the Co-Favorites to win The Players Championship

The Players Championship returns to TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida this week. Commonly referred to as the “Fifth Major Championship,” The Players is one of the most prestigious events on TOUR. Moreover, a $25M purse makes The Players the most lucrative event of all the official money events on the PGA TOUR. 144 of the TOUR’s best will tee it up on Thursday, but given the current odds being offered by sportsbooks, only two golfers have better than a 10 percent chance to win this week.

The Players Championship Odds

For the first time this season, Jon Rahm enters a PGA TOUR event coming off a week in which he did not finish in the Top 10. The 28 year-old Spaniard finished T-39 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard last week, but the oddsmakers are expecting a bounce back performance at TPC Sawgrass, installing Rahm as a co-favorite at +850, and for good reason. With three wins already this season at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, The American Express, and The Genesis Invitational, Rahm has ascended to No. 1 in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) as well as No. 1 in the FedExCup Playoffs Points Standings. Rahm struggled at The Players last year, finishing T-55, but he finished T-12 and T-9 in 2021 and 2019, respectively. (Note: The 2020 event was canceled after the opening round due to the COVID-19 pandemic.) A win this week in Florida would be Rahm’s fourth of the season and would go a long way in strengthening his resume as the early leading candidate for 2023 PGA TOUR Player of the Year.

After a couple of disappointing performances in a row, T-32 at the WM Phoenix Open and T-29 at The Genesis Invitational, Rory McIlroy played well at Bay Hill last week, finishing T-2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Couple that runner-up finish with his win at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina, and it should come as no surprise that the 33 year-old Northern Irishman is a co-favorite at +850 this week. Finishing in the Top 2 in 50 percent of his PGA TOUR starts this season, McIlroy finds himself No 3 in the OWGR and No. 10 (up from No. 23 last week) in the FedExCup Playoffs Points Standings. With 600 FedExCup Points on the line, the 2019 Players Champion is seeking to become just the seventh men’s golfer to win the event more than once, and the first since Tiger Woods won his second Players in 2013.

In what has become a weekly theme during this 2022-23 PGA TOUR season, if Rahm and McIlroy are the co-favorites, one should expect that Scottie Scheffler will not be far behind. At +1000, the 26 year-old American has the third-best odds to win this week, with the books assigning a little more than a nine percent chance that the OWGR No. 2 collects his second victory of the season. In his last seven PGA TOUR starts, Scheffler has five Top 10s and is yet to finish outside the Top 12. These consistent strong performances have resulted in Scheffler rising to No. 4 in the FedExCup Playoffs Points Standings as he attempts to build a resume worthy of PGA TOUR Player of the Year again this season. However, if there were any reason for concern this week, it would be his poor finishes at TPC Sawgrass in his two previous appearances: T-55 in 2022 and missed cut in 2021.

Rahm, McIlroy and Scheffler are the favorites, but Justin Thomas (+1900) and Collin Morikawa (+2800) are golfers to keep an eye on as well this week.

Since the calendar turned to 2023, Justin Thomas has entered five PGA TOUR events, and has yet to finish outside the Top 25. However, he has only finished inside the Top 15 once – a fourth place finish as the WM Phoenix Open in February. These good, but not great results – by JT’s standards – have led to a pedestrian No. 62 ranking in the FedExCup Playoff Points. Still No. 9 in the OWGR, the 29 year-old American has shown the ability to perform well at The Players Championship in recent years, winning the event by one stroke over Lee Westwood in 2021. With +1900 odds, a second win in three years at TPC Sawgrass is exactly what Thomas needs to jumpstart his 2022-23 season.

It has been boom or bust for Collin Morikawa in 2023. In his past five TOUR starts, the two-time Major Champion finished second at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, third at the Farmers insurance Open and then sandwiched a T-6 performance at The Genesis Invitational between missed cuts at the WM Phoenix Open and last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. While a missed cut at The Players in 2022 and a T-41 finish in 2021 will not inspire confidence, Morikawa supporters might like the +2800 odds and hope the 26 year-old American plays up to his potential as current OWGR No. 10.