Biden Widens Lead Over Democratic Challengers, Comfortably Sitting At -300 To Win His Primary

According to a TIPP Insights poll taken in early March, Biden has a 34-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in his bid to capture the Democratic nomination next summer. The TIPP poll is one of the highest-rated polls for accuracy and lists Harris (9%), Sanders (8%), and Michele Obama (8%) as distant afterthoughts trailing Biden by a massive margin. His approval rating continues to climb after bottoming out during the summer, when it fell to the 37.5% range. According to research from the Public Policy Polling group, Biden's approval rating has reached 46%. Those approval ratings gains are correlated to falling gas prices and the national inflation rate. When his approval ratings were at their lowest, gas prices were nearing $5.00 a gallon and inflation was approaching 8.5%. In the past nine months, gas prices have dropped into the $3.75 range and inflation has been driven down to just about 6%. Sportsbooks continue to offer political odds, including the Democratic Primary market. 

2024 Democratic Nominees For President

Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama will likely remain in the +1200 to +1500 range until they make a firm commitment to running for the nomination. Newsom, the current Governor of California, is already testing the waters with campaign ads and outreach to his donor base, while Harris and Obama have not indicated if they'll be running for president during the 2024 cycle. 

Pete Buttigieg has seen his odds slide in recent months and it's looking less and less likely that he would even enter the fray with odds better than five percent. One name to keep an eye on is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The 33-year-old congresswoman is a fundraising superstar and no stranger to social media and the campaign trail. If she became the nominee she would be the youngest in American political history.

While Republican candidates will be announcing their official presidential campaigns over the next three months, don't expect the democrats to match that same timeline. With the sitting president indicating that he wants to run for reelection, there is little value in kicking off a campaign before the fall of 2023 at the earliest.