greek1971

BUNNY BEE has only raced three times so is very unexposed. Henrietta Knight must think something of her entering her in a Listed bumper race for her first run under Rules. She flopped that day finishing last. A month later she made her hurdle debut at Fontwell, sent off at 50/1, she showed massive improvement to finish 2nd of 13. The winner won comfortably but she had two decent types behind her in 3rd and 4th and thats pretty useful form in my opinion. Last time out she was pulled-up at Wincanton but the ground was heavy so we can forgive that effort. The market leaders don't look anything special having inconsistent form and/or weak form lines. Jockey Paul O'Brien rejoins her after that great hurdle debut and a repeat of that performance will give her a sporting chance at fantastic odds! PASSAGE DU MAURE (20/1) is also worth an each-way bet.

Juvenile hurdle races can be very unpredictable, as young horses can develop and improve at different rates. Two horses that ran to a similar level a month ago and are priced closely today can perform very differently. None of these horses today have raced more than twice over hurdles, so putting big bets on the market leaders is poor value. PSYCHOLOGICAL DRAMA (40/1) ran well on debut, finishing a close-up 3rd of 5 at Leicester in November ??" beaten just under 5 lengths by one of her rivals today, Lucy The Wire. She is 7 lb better off with that rival today. On her second hurdle race in December, she was leading the field and jumping well until stumbling at the sixth hurdle. Although she maintained her position, she weakened shortly after and finished 6th of 11 (beaten 25 lengths). That's a fair excuse, and she will have learned from that. Highest rated on Geegeex Speed Ratings. Jockey Stan Sheppard rejoins her again, which is another positive.

Mullins and Elliot train the market leaders and they have reasonable hurdle form, but the value bet is KAISER DE CHANAY (16/1) in my opinion. He finished a close-up 5th of 12 (beaten 9 lengths) in his race at Navan in January on only his second start over hurdles, where the average OR of his rivals was higher than those in the races the market leaders have contested. The form of that race has worked out very well with 2 winners and a placed effort since. The heavy ground today will not be an issue and JJ Slevin rejoins him.

IEMERALD TIME was making his hurdle debut after a 270-day break when I tipped him 4th February. He jumped like a seasoned hurdler and was right there at the front until tiring close home and falling two out. He'll be fitter today on more favourable ground. Tom Bellamy rejoins him which is another plus. His rivals today do not look as strong as they did back at Ludlow and I'm confident of a big run.

This looks similar to yesterday's NAP race which I got all wrong! Three at the head of the market look streets ahead on prices but this race is a juvenile hurdle and they are more difficult to predict as they are young and unexposed. KNIGHTON (33/1) was beaten just under 3 lengths by My Kinda Ghaiy (5/1) in January, that was a massive improvement on his debut run. Today, he has the services of the trainer's no.1 jockey and I'm happy taking a chance at 33/1 that further improvement will see him at least make the places.

Willie Mullins sends one runner, He's On Fire, over to Carlisle today, its an ominous sign but the market reflects this with prohibitive odds of 1/3. His form in France doesn't look anything special. I've shortlisted Johnny Moonshine (5/1), Forever Louie (22/1) and ROSA DIAZ (33/1). The latter won her sole P2P race in Ireland before an excellent hurdle debut run in December finishing a close-up 5th of 12 in a race that has since produced 2 winners and a place. Her second run over hurdles was very poor though finishing a well-beaten 4th of 5 in January. Johnny Moonshine looks safer but 5/1 is poor value, Forever Louie is from the Menzies yard and could make the places but he's trying the hurdles for the first time today and carries risks. ROSA DIAZ is still very unexposed and maybe the return to a right-handed track can help produce the form of her debut run. At 33/1, its worth a bet.

An intriguing opener at Carlisle where 3 previous hurdle winners head the market at 10/11, 2/1 and 5/1. The market says no other horse has a chance with several occupying the next best at 33/1. MATCHING ENERGY could spring a surprise here, he won a P2P and then won his debut bumper run at Hexham. He was the only horse to match strides with the heavily odds-on favourite (1/14) back in December over this course and distance before falling at the last. He would have been beaten but he was a massive 40 lengths clear of the rest of the field, some of those have gone on to closely place in races since so it put that 'F' in his form line in a different light. Callum Bewley has a good record here and partners him again today.