Ghostwriter16
Value is key - for me the only key.
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Ghostwriter16's Tips History
22 October 2025
17:32 5:32 Navan
Viceregent
Daily Racing
25 EW
@21.00
Lose
-50
Won this in 2023 which was also on soft going. Tormey looks to be good value for his 10lb. Trainer (McGuigan) seems to be coming into form. Has been running over shorter and this step up will suit.
16:30 4:30 Navan
White Clover
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
Course and distance winner. Has been tried over further this year without success, but now back to last winning distance. Blinkers fitted for the first time.
15:57 3:57 Navan
Star Allure
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@34.00
Lose
-50
Improved at Bellewstown on soft last time with Cleary onboard. Only 3/4 lengths behind the likely second favorite here in that race. This is an ordinary maiden, so at the price, it's a good bet for the place.
14:47 2:47 Navan
Gegenpressing
Daily Racing
25 EW
@SP
Lose
-50
Coming down in the weights just as the trainer's hitting top form. Handles the going and distance is ideal. Hayes now booked and has won on him previously.
Subtotal-200
21 October 2025
20:00 Bristol City v Southampton
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
Both teams have scored in each of The Saints' 5 away games this season. The Robins have similarly seen BTTS in 80% of their home games. Both teams are open and can be expected to concede again.
19:45 Blackburn v Sheff Utd
Under 2.50
Total Goals
These teams are desperate not to lose to each other, so a cagey affair is expected. With neither team showing the ability to score so far this season, a low-scoring game is expected.
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
22nd plays 23rd, so both teams are desperate for a point and also they cannot afford to lose to the other. With the Blades only scoring once in 5 away league games so far this season and Blackburn only scoring 3 times at home in 4, a 0-0 or an odd goal win for the home team can be expected.
19:45 Millwall v Stoke
Under 2.50
Total Goals
Stoke have the best defense in the league and have only conceded 3 in their last 5 away league games. Millwall have only scored 4 in their last 5 home games, with 3 of those coming in their last. This was a confidence boost, but they may not be able to build on it against such a stingy away team.
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
6th plays 3rd with both teams having made a good start to the season. Stoke have the best defense in the league and have only conceded 6 in 10 so far. With Millwall's attack being less prolific than their league position may suggest - only 11 goals in 10 games - and they have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 home games, an away win to nil is expected.
19:45 Portsmouth v Coventry
Coventry
Coventry have made a great start to the season and remain undefeated. With 14 goals in their last 4 league games, with 9 of these coming away from home, they are just too good for a steady Pompey team who have only managed 2 wins at home.
19:45 Preston v Birmingham
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Preston are good at Deepdale and have only lost 4 times in their last 26 at home. This season they are averaging only 0.6 goals conceded at home. Put this with Birmingham averaging 0.6 goals scored in their away games across all competitions, and the Lilywhites can close them out.
Subtotal107
20 October 2025
23:30 Vasco da Gama v Fluminense
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-50
There have been 22 goals in Vasco's last 5 home league matches, 13 for the home team. Fluminense are not prolific, but they can and do score away even in defeat - 10 in their last 7 with only one win. There will be goals.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@2.04
Lose
-50
Today's Clássico dos Gigantes can produce goals. Vasco have won their last 3 home games in the league, and it's been 10 games across all competitions since they failed to score at home. Fluminense sit higher in the league and have mixed recent away form, but despite this, they have scored in 6 of their last 7 away games. With Vasco's defensive weakness, they can score here too.
Draw #2-2
50 WIN
@17.00
Lose
-50
Vasco have scored 2 or more in each of their last 5 home games. In those same games, though, they have conceded 9. Fluminense can expose the defensive frailties again, and while their away form has been inconsistent, they have drawn 3 of their last 6 away. 2-2 is a value call in the Classico dos Gigantes.
23:00 Juventude v Bragantino
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
Two out of form teams clash here but that doesn't mean that there can't be goals. Juventude have scored in 5 of their last 6 home league matches. Bragantino have scored in 5 of their last 6 away and they have conceded in each of their last 9 away.
20:00 CD Alaves v Valencia
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.40
Lose
-50
Alaves have beaten Valencia in their last 5 meetings. Valencia concede away from home and have now done so in their last 18 away games. Having put 3 past Elche, arguably a better team than Valencia last time at home, they will be in a confident mood and can score again. Valencia have conceded 10 in their last 3 games away and can keep up that sort of average here.
19:30 Cadiz v Burgos
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.62
Lose
-50
Cadiz can go back to the top with a win. They have only conceded once in their 5 home league games this season. With Burgos having a poor away record, only 1 win in their last 9 away, it's unlikely they'll be able to score against the best defense in the league.
18:30 Petrolul Ploiesti v CFR Cluj
CFR Cluj
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Cluj have not lost in their last 6 and have 5 draws from their last 6 away games. It is difficult to see Petrolul, who have been beaten in 5 of their last 6 home games, only scoring twice, stopping Cluj from taking the win.
18:00 Sonderjyske v FC Fredericia
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.60
Lose
-50
Both teams sit in the relegation group and are desperate for points. They both have a BTTS percentage of 64%. Fredericia have a mixed away record, but they have scored 15 in their last 7 away games and can do so again. Sonderjyske have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games and similarly against a defense that concedes 2 goals a game on average in the league so can they.
18:00 Wisla Plock v Termalica BB Nieciecza
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Wisla are strong in defense and have only conceded 7 times this season with an average of 0.5 conceded in home league games. Low scoring TBN are unlikely to be able to break them down. However, Wisla struggle to find the net themselves and have only scored 12 in 18 league ties. Expect Wisla to win a low scoring affair.
15:50 3:50 Deauville
Waldnebel
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@15.00
Lose
-50
Aegean Prince was impressive last time out. Buick makes the journey and has won on him, and Appleby is flying. So why go against him? Value... On breeding, he is a doubtful stayer, more so if the predicted rain comes. The alternative and the selection is Waldnebel. Ran second over further last time in a Group 3 to the subsequent Cadran winner and is likely to be staying on when others are slowing. May not be good enough to beat the favorite but is exceptional value at the price.
Subtotal-500
18 October 2025
17:30 Villarreal v Real Betis
Villarreal
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
Both teams have started well in La Liga and sit 3rd and 4th respectively. A close game is expected, but Villarreal have the best home record in the whole league this season, being 4 from 4 with a +9 goal difference. They are unbeaten in their last 11 at Estadio de la Ceramica. Expect them to win again.
14:05 2:05 Ascot
Montassib
Daily Racing
25 EW
@SP
Lose
-50
Haggas is flying and Fallon is 5 from 12 when riding. This Group 1 winner is back to his perfect distance. The drying conditions really help, making the price simply too big.
13:00 Yunnan Yukun v Tianjin Jinmen Tigers
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.75
Lose
-50
Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in their last 12 Super League games. Tianjin Teda have won their last 3 league games without conceding, but these were all at home. Away, they have conceded in all of their last 13. A scoring draw seems the most likely outcome.
12:55 12:55 Ascot
Sweet William
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-50
At the price, Sweet William has to be the one. Beaten when receiving 3lb from Trawlerman at York, but has shown improved form at Doncaster since. The drier conditions will suit, and with a pacemaker (Saratoga) in the race to battle Trawlerman for the lead, the selection can sit behind and come through at the end with a better-timed ride from Havlin.
12:35 Zhejiang v Shandong Taishan
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.29
Win
14
These two score and concede for fun. In the league, these two teams have had over 2.5 goals scored at a rate of 69% and 73%. Put this with both teams having over 3.5 goals at 54% each, and goals can be predicted.
Subtotal-186
16 October 2025
00:00 Mirassol v Internacional
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.20
Win
60
Both teams have been inconsistent in recent weeks but somewhat strangely, in their last 6 league games, they both have 2 wins, 2 losses, and 2 draws. In those games, though, only one game across the 12 has seen less than 2 goals scored. At home, Mirassol are superb and average 2.15 goals. Combine this with Inter scoring over 1 per away game too, and 'over' is the call.
Subtotal60
15 October 2025
23:00 Palmeiras v Bragantino
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.70
Win
35
Palmeiras have scored 18 in their last 5 home games in Serie A and are top of the league. Bragantino have conceded more than any other team in the top half and have lost 5 of their last 6 games. But they have also scored in 5 of those 6 games. A high-scoring home win with Bragantino chipping a goal as well seems the most likely result.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
Top of the league and having scored 18 in their last 5, while the Bragantino defense has conceded more than any other team in the top half of the table this season. In short, Palmeiras will score. As to Bragantino, they are on a poor run but did at least win at home last time. Away, they have lost 5 of their last 6 in the league with only a draw in their last away game. But in those same 6 games, they have scored in 5 of them and can do so again.
16:05 4:05 Punchestown
Heart Wood
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 2.38 on 15/10 at 10:250.35 deduction for Western Fold@2.62 withdrawn at 10:41R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 1.38 x (1-0.35) = 1.90
@1.90
Win
44
Western Fold should have the fitness edge, having run and won all four races since May. However, Heartwood has previously won first time up, and De Bromhead's string are flying. O'Keefe knows the horse and has won on him. He's top on official ratings but receives 8lb from Western Fold and 12lb from Croke Park. With the distance perfect, the 7yo can take this.
Subtotal129
14 October 2025
19:45 Rep of Ireland v Armenia
Rep of Ireland
Both need a win if they are to stay in contention for qualifying. Armenia beat Ireland 2-1 in September, so will have some confidence going into this. But Ireland are better at home, while Armenia struggle away and have only 6 wins from 38 away games.
17:00 Algeria v Uganda
Algeria
Algeria have beaten Uganda in their last 5 HTHs and have been in sparkling form during WC qualifying. They are now unbeaten in their last 17 across all competitions. To be fair, Uganda have been good too and are on a run of 4 straight wins in WCQs. There is a doubt that Algeria may relax having already qualified, but that may be why the price is a little higher. Despite this, it's Algeria to finish on a high.
17:00 Estonia v Moldova
Estonia
Only one win in qualifying between these two, and that winner was Estonia, who beat Moldova away. Neither team has many positives, but Estonia at home can break Moldova's defense that has already conceded 25 in their 5 qualifying games.
17:00 Guinea v Botswana
Guinea
Nothing to play for here. Assuming this doesn't impact the game too much, then Guinea can take this. They have won 2 of their last 4 and are unbeaten in those games. Both those draws were against high-flying Algeria, so they take a lot of credit there too. Contrast this with Botswana, who have lost their last 3.
01:00 Honduras v Haiti
Honduras
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
Honduras at home at evens are value. They are unbeaten in their last 6 at home, with 5 of these being victories, scoring twice in each of those wins. Haiti won last time in Nicaragua, but before that had not won in the previous 6.
Subtotal12
13 October 2025
19:45 North Macedonia v Kazakhstan
North Macedonia
50 WIN
@1.36
Lose
-50
Regardless of a 4-0 win last time (vs Liechtenstein) for Kazakhstan, there is no reason to see anything other than a home win for North Macedonia. North Macedonia are now unbeaten in 13, making it 19 undefeated in the last 22. Compare this to Kazakhstan, who have won just 2 in 27 WCQs. The price is short, but it's still value.
19:45 Slovakia v Luxembourg
Slovakia
50 WIN
@1.35
Win
17
Slovakia are 6 unbeaten at home, with the last game on their soil being an impressive 2-0 win vs Germany. Luxembourg have little to suggest they can win here and are without a win in the group. Actually, they've lost them all, conceding 8 along the way, including a 1-0 home defeat to Slovakia. Slovakia need the points to keep up their qualification hopes and can win this convincingly.
19:45 Slovenia v Switzerland
Slovenia
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
This is purely a value call. Switzerland should win and are correctly the favorites. They are 3 from 3 in WCQ and top the group with 9 scored and conceded. However, Slovenia are really tough to beat at home and are unbeaten in 21 of their last 24 home games. The home team are way too long at 5.5 to maybe just edge out the Swiss.
19:45 Wales v Belgium
Wales
50 WIN
@4.75
Lose
-50
Wales must win to have any chance of qualifying, and the price for them to do just that is way too long. They have won their last 4 and are unbeaten in their last 9 at home. Belgium are amazingly unbeaten in their last 33 WCQs, which makes the Welsh task very difficult, but they have lost 2 of their 4 away across all competitions with losses to Ukraine and Israel in the Nations League. From a value perspective, Wales are the bet.
17:00 Lesotho v Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
Neither team can qualify now, so the pressure is off. Lesotho are on a run of poor form with 5 defeats in a row, and in those games, they've conceded 16 times, so confidence will be low. Zimbabwe have struggled too and have not scored in 3, but these were all close, hard-fought games. Before that, they won 3-1 away to Mozambique. They can now win at the Setsoto.
14:00 South Sudan v Togo
Togo
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Both of these teams have struggled of late, but Togo have arguably the better record with two wins in their last 6 games, while South Sudan have been winless in their last 6. Those two wins came at home, however, and Togo have lost their last 4 away. So why are they the selection? The answer is South Sudan's defense, or rather the lack of one! They have conceded 12 in their last 3 WCQs at home and are averaging over 2.1 goals conceded across qualifying. Togo can score against them, and with likely little coming the other way from a rather blunt South Sudan attack, they can take the win.
Subtotal-233
12 October 2025
17:00 Chad v Central African Republic
Chad
50 WIN
@2.40
Lose
-50
Both of these teams have been outclassed in their WC qualifying group with the only win for either coming in the reverse fixture where CAR won 1-0. Both teams struggle to score with CAR failing to score in any of their last 6 games away leading to seven straight away defeats. Chad also struggle to score but they have found the net in 2 of their last 3 home games, resulting in two draws with better quality opponents in Ghana and Sierra Leone. The home team can edge it.
15:45 3:45 Naas
Royal Entry
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@SP
Lose
-50
With Twomey firing and Lee, who has won or been placed in each of his rides on this one, Royal Entry can sit at the back and pick these up one by one with Island Hopping setting the race up from the front.
15:10 3:10 Naas
Duckadilly
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@17.00
Lose
-50
Swelter beat the odds on Exactly to win a Group 3 on her penultimate start, and on that form, she should win this. However, that was over 7f, and on her last start in the Guineas, she looked nothing like that horse. Given a break, she may come back firing, but with Weld's runners not performing to their usual high standards, she's worth taking on. The best of the rest could be Duckadilly. She too has been highly tried and ran well on unsuitable going last time. Back on a better surface, she can confirm her advantage over Fiery Lucy from their run at Killarney and take this if the favourite falters. Regardless at the price she's EW value.
Subtotal-150
11 October 2025
00:00 Curacao v Jamaica
Jamaica
50 WIN
@2.40
Lose
-50
Dick Advocaat's team have been impressive of late, particularly at home with no defeats in their last 9 home matches. Recently, though, they have struggled to win and have only won once in their last 5 games. Jamaica have been perfect in WCQs, winning every game. Combine this with them keeping a clean sheet in their last 4 WCQs, scoring 10 in those games, and they are value favourites and should be backed.
Subtotal-50
10 October 2025
23:00 Bermuda v Trinidad & Tobago
Trinidad & Tobago
50 WIN
@1.73
Win
37
Bermuda have lost both games in this stage of qualifying, so they must win here if they are to have any real chance of qualifying. Trinidad's start has also been difficult, but they do at least have a point to build on. Bermuda have struggled to defend lately and have conceded over 2.5 goals per game in their last 5 WCQs. With Trinidad scoring over 2.67 in their last 6, they have the edge.
17:00 Rwanda v Benin
Benin
50 WIN
@2.70
Win
85
Rwanda have won just 5 of their last 30 games. Benin have won only 3 of their last 24 away games. However, in WCQs, Benin top the group and go into this in a confident mood, having put 4 past Lesotho last time. In comparison, Rwanda only managed a draw with Lesotho when last at home. On balance, Benin still seem the value.
15:30 3:30 Newmarket
Minhad
Daily Racing
25 EW
@SP
Lose
-50
The only C&D winner in the field and will be staying on when a lot of the market leaders will be struggling at the dip. The colt is also the one runner to try their luck (unsuccessfully) in group company, which also points to him showing something at home. A value E/W bet.
14:25 2:25 Newmarket
Poet Master
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.75
Lose
-50
There is little to choose on form between Poet Master and Cosmic Year. But with an improved performance last time in a Group 3 at Longchamp and the slightly drier condition (hopefully not too dry), Poet Master is the selection. In-form Clifford Lee is a notable booking and rides the gelding for the first time. Cosmic Year comes back from a break, but before that was not performing at the heights shown earlier in the year, so it's worth taking the favourite on.
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14:00 Togo v DR Congo
DR Congo
50 WIN
@2.05
Win
52
Congo lie second in the group and have an impressive scoring record. Togo will be more confident having beaten Sudan last time, but with DR Congo scoring and Togo conceding, 2 in previous 3 games before Sudan. DR Congo are 100% against Togo in HTHs.
13:15 1:15 Newmarket
Revival Power
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@4.33
Lose
-50
Won a Group 2 last time with blast-out-and-stay-there tactics. Never looked like getting caught then, or when winning the race before (Listed at York, running in the same style). So while the incline at the end of Rowley Mile will be a new hurdle, this filly is progressive and that can continue the winning run. Murphy jumping off and onto stablemate Argentine Tango poses a question mark, but Allen has already won on Power twice, so maybe there's 'nothing to see'. Brussels is favourite for this, receives 2lb from the selection, and is clear on Official Ratings, but she's been generally tried over further so she may lack the brute speed needed to stay close enough and challenge up the hill.
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01:00 Nicaragua v Haiti
Haiti
50 WIN
@2.30
Win
65
Little to choose between two teams that are both playing attacking football. Neither team has managed a win in the two qualification games so far, but, and possibly importantly, Haiti remain unbeaten. The visitors have scored in all of their last 13 away games and can do so again to take the win.
Subtotal89
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