RYSK83
1
Estimated Prizes
this month
£5
Estimated Prize money
this month
RYSK83's Tips History
22 February 2026
19:45 Roma v Cremonese
Cremonese (AH) 1.50
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@-121
Lose
-50
The market expects a Roma blowout, pricing them at 1.36. However, my model calculates a 70.67% probability that Cremonese loses by only one goal or secures a result. Roma simply lacks the firepower today to win by a 2+ goal margin.
18:30 Heidenheim v VfB Stuttgart
Heidenheim (AH) 0.75
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@+100
Win
50
Backing the home side to either win or draw (or lose by exactly one goal for a partial win) offers a massive structural edge against a market that has not properly accounted for Stuttgart's Glasgow travel fatigue.
17:00 AC Milan v Parma
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@-124
Lose
-50
Parma will deploy a makeshift defensive line featuring a backup goalkeeper against Serie A's second-most clinical attack (9% conversion rate). However, Parma's counter-attack strategy thrives against high lines, having scored in 75% of their away games. My model calculates a highly dominant 68.10% mathematical probability for 3 or more goals.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@+125
Lose
-50
The market implies a 45.6% probability for BTTS, while my model calculates the true probability at 61.66%. Parma has an elite headed-goal threat in Mateo Pellegrino and scored in 75% of their away matches, offering immense value against a Milan side that occasionally loses focus when leading comfortably.
16:30 St Pauli v Werder Bremen
St Pauli (AH) 0.00
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@-113
Win
44
My model shows St. Pauli taking at least a point in 69.07% of simulations. Given Bremen's injury crisis, St. Pauli is the only team with a functional, cohesive structure today. Backing the home side with the draw void offers excellent structural protection.
16:30 Tottenham v Arsenal
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@-117
Win
43
My model calculates a 62.84% mathematical probability for over 2.5 goals. Arsenal's heavily upgraded xG against Tottenham's broken defensive line pushes this game toward a multi-goal threshold. (Implied probability from 1.85 odds is only 54%.)
15:15 Barcelona v Levante
Levante (AH) 2.75
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@-113
Lose+Push
-25
While Barcelona will win, the public is massively overestimating a blowout. My model indicates a 73.65% win probability, not the 96% the bookmakers imply. Levante covering a 2.5 goal spread is a highly protective structural play in a game that slows down after the 60th minute.
14:30 SC Freiburg v Borussia Mgladbach
SC Freiburg (AH) -0.50
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@+104
Win
52
My model calculates a dominant 69.59% mathematical probability that Freiburg avoids defeat. Despite their defensive injury crisis, Gladbach's attack is too depleted to reliably secure three points away from home against a team with a 60% home win rate.
14:00 Crystal Palace v Wolverhampton
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@-109
Win
46
My model calculates a 64.72% probability for Under 2.5 Goals against an implied probability of 50% (odds 1.91). Clear value bet.
Wolverhampton (AH) 0.75
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@-117
Lose+Push
-25
With Crystal Palace suffering from Tuesday European fatigue and missing their top scorer, my model prices a home blowout at less than 15%, giving massive cover to the away side.
14:00 Nottm Forest v Liverpool
Nottm Forest (AH) 0.50
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@-108
Lose
-50
Liverpool's implied win probability is 61.3%, but their true win probability is only 48.6%. The +1 +0.5 AH covers 51.4% of the mathematical outcomes, offering a +13.8% expected value edge against the bookmaker's line.
14:00 Sunderland v Fulham
Sunderland
50 WIN
@+175
Lose
-50
Fulham missing top creator Chukwueze. Sunderland's home defense is solid (0.77 xGA). The market is pricing Fulham based on name status, not current structural health.
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@-108
Lose
-50
My model returns a 61.80% probability that at least one team fails to score, offering a massive +11.04% edge against the implied odds (50.76%).
Subtotal-115
21 February 2026
20:05 PSG v Metz
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@-117
Win
43
The market prices BTTS Yes at 2.10, implying an almost 50/50 shot. However, PSG's home defense is a fortress (80% clean sheet rate), and Metz's attack is toothless. Backing PSG to win to nil is the most mathematically sound play on the board.
PSG & No (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@-120
Win
41
PSG is priced at 1.11 to win outright, which offers no value. However, Metz is dead last in Ligue 1, averages 0.36 points away from home, and faces a PSG defense that keeps a clean sheet in 80% of its home matches. Combining the PSG win with Metz failing to score creates a massive value multiplier. Even with PSG rotating players after a Champions League match, their defensive structure is far too strong for a toothless Metz side to break down.
20:00 Ajax v NEC
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@+170
Win
85
The raw math loved goals here, but the human element completely changes it. Two exhausted teams, one looking ahead to Europe and one recovering from a Tuesday snow match, point to a sluggish 1-0 or 1-1 outcome.
Ajax & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@+200
Lose
-50
NEC Nijmegen hits BTTS in 92% of their away matches but has a 0% away clean-sheet rate. They score and concede in almost every road game. Ajax generates 1.99 xG at home and wins 67% of their matches at the Johan Cruijff Arena. Ajax suffered massive defensive injuries this week, meaning their usually stout home defense is vulnerable. NEC will score, but Ajax's superior overall talent should eventually grind out the three points in a heavy, entertaining, flawed defensive matchup.
20:00 Man City v Newcastle
Man City
50 WIN
@-181
Win
28
Newcastle played in Europe on Thursday and must travel to the Etihad, missing their midfield engine, Guimarães, and key defenders. City is rested, welcomes back Haaland, and will ruthlessly exploit Newcastle's heavy legs on a fast, wet pitch.
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@+145
Lose
-50
The market leans toward both teams scoring, but the raw stats show it only hit 46% of the time. Given Newcastle's Thursday travel and absence of Guimarães to transition the ball, City dominating possession and keeping a clean sheet is highly probable.
17:45 PSV v Heerenveen
PSV
50 WIN
@-277
Win
18
Even with a Champions League hangover, PSV's possession dominance (averaging 63%) against a Heerenveen side missing its starting striker is too much to ignore. Heerenveen simply doesn't have the firepower to exploit PSV's tired legs.
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@+154
Lose
-50
The market implies a 67% chance both score, but Heerenveen lacks the firepower today to consistently threaten PSV's rested domestic defense.
17:30 RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig
50 WIN
@+104
Lose
-50
The market is heavily respecting Dortmund's 6-match win streak, pricing Leipzig at nearly 2.00 at home. However, Dortmund is dealing with severe midweek Champions League fatigue and missing three starting defenders plus Emre Can. Leipzig's fresh wingers will tear apart Dortmund's exhausted backup defensive line on the wet pitch.
RB Leipzig & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@+209
Lose
-50
Dortmund has scored in 100% of their away matches this season. They will almost certainly find the net. However, Dortmund is exhausted from a midweek Champions League match against Atalanta and is missing three starting defenders and Emre Can. Leipzig is missing Gulácsi, the starting goalkeeper, which dramatically increases Dortmund's chances of scoring. But Leipzig's rested attack against Dortmund's makeshift, tired defense gives the home side the ultimate edge to outscore them.
17:30 West Ham v Bournemouth
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@+150
Win
75
The raw season data shows these teams average 3.77 goals per game, so the bookmakers heavily juiced the over 2.5 at 1.53. This is a massive trap. Bournemouth lost Semenyo, who scored 13 goals this season, and Kluivert is out. A severely weakened Bournemouth attack traveling to face a pragmatic West Ham side fighting a desperate relegation battle equals a gritty, low-scoring dogfight. Fading the over here provides massive underdog value.
Over 10.50
Total Corners
50 WIN
@+100
Win
50
This fixture averages 11.47 corners, with both teams earning over 5.5 per match. Nuno's West Ham plays heavily through the wings. A scrappy, desperate relegation battle usually results in a high volume of clearances and deflections.
16:00 Lens v Monaco
Lens
50 WIN
@-136
Lose
-50
The bookies give Lens a 57.8% implied probability to win. However, Lens has a 91% home win rate and is completely rested. Monaco, on the other hand, are absolutely exhausted from a Tuesday Champions League battle against PSG and are missing massive defensive and midfield pieces. The bookmakers are pricing Monaco's reputation, not the battered squad they are putting on the pitch today.
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@+154
Lose
-50
The market expects goals (pricing BTTS at 1.57), but the raw stats show this only hits 43% of the time historically between these teams. Factor in Monaco's heavy Tuesday legs and Lens's elite home defense (0.45 conceded per game), and the math strongly suggests a Lens clean sheet.
14:30 Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt
Bayern Munich & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@+100
Win
50
Bayern's home rate is 82% and they are massive 1.13 favorites. Straight backing them offers no value. However, Frankfurt hits BTTS in a staggering 91% of their away matches. Even with injuries, Frankfurt's style relies on catching heavy-possession teams on the counter-attack. While the snow and fatigue will lower the overall goal count, Bayern missing Manuel Neuer in goal gives Frankfurt the tiny window they need to snatch their customary away goal before Bayern ultimately overwhelms them.
14:30 Cologne v TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim
50 WIN
@+110
Lose
-50
Getting better than even money (2.10) on the 3rg place team in Bundesliga is rare. Cologne is missing their two starting central defenders, forcing them to play a makeehift backline. Hoffenheim's elite, rested attack will relentlessly exploit a broken Cologne defense. This is the best pute underdog/even-money value on the board.
TSG Hoffenheim & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@+275
Lose
-50
Cologne has scored in 7 consecutive matches and has an 82% BTTS hit rate at home this season. However, they are missing their starting centre-backs today and are playing a makeshift defense. Hoffenheim's elite attack (led by Kramaric) will punish them, but Hoffenheim also routinely concedes on the road (1.36 goals per away match). The dynamics of a broken Cologne defense facing a top-3 Bundesliga attack, while still possessing enough home momentum to score a consolation goal, make Hoffenheim win & BTTS Yes the most logical outcome on the board.
Subtotal-60
19 February 2026
20:00 Celtic v VfB Stuttgart
Over 2.50
Total Goals
100 WIN
@-161
Win
62
Celtic averages 1.88 goals scored and recently produced 2-1 and 4-2 scorelines. Stuttgart's 2.02 xG with high shot volume ensures an aggressive transition game, pushing total goals past the 2.5 threshold through exploitation of both teams' defensive gaps.
20:00 Lille v Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda (AH) 0.75
Asian Hcap
100 WIN
@+101
Win
102
Lille has secured only one win in their last nine outings, indicating a finishing crisis. Red Star won the previous meeting 1-0 and enters this phase with an 80% win rate, making the +0.75 handicap statistically high value.
20:00 Ludogorets Razgrad v Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
100 WIN
@+450
Lose
-100
FTC holds a 4-1 head-to-head advantage and scores first in 83% of recent fixtures. Ludogorets' home xG 1.64 confirms goal potential, but FTC's clinical 1.25 xG conversion in European play suggests a high-scoring away victory.
17:45 Dinamo Zagreb v Genk
Over 2.50
Total Goals
100 WIN
@-108
Win
92
Dinamo Zagreb has conceded the first goal in six of their last seven European matches, with a 2.0 conceding average. Genk's 1.60 xG and late-game clinical efficiency create a scenario ripe for multiple goals as the home defense tires.
17:45 Fenerbahce v Nottm Forest
Fenerbahce
100 WIN
@+125
Lose
-100
Fenerbahçe remains unbeaten in their last six matches with a strong first-half offensive output. Nottingham Forest's managerial instability and inconsistent away defensive structure allow the 1.74 home xG to translate into a tactical victory at an intense ?ükrü Saraco?lu Stadium.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
100 WIN
@+100
Win
100
Both teams rank high in shot volume, with Fenerbahçe scoring 80% of their goals in the first half. Nottingham Forest's high shot frequency and defensive instability under new management provide the tactical conditions necessary for a minimum three-goal outcome.
17:45 KuPS Kuopio v Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
100 WIN
@+240
Lose
-100
Lech Pozna?'s Mikael Ishak is in peak form with five goals, driving an offensive unit with 1.48 xG. KuPS averages one goal at home and will likely exploit Lech's lack of clean sheets before eventually succumbing to superior technical depth.
17:45 Noah v AZ
AZ
100 WIN
@-105
Lose
-100
AZ Alkmaar's 1.57 xG significantly outclasses Noah's 0.89 output. Despite key absences, the Dutch side's tactical superiority and 60% win probability against Armenian opposition ensure a controlled victory, isolating Noah's very limited offensive threats effectively.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
100 WIN
@-153
Lose
-100
Data indicate a high probability of defensive errors from Noah under sustained pressure. AZ Alkmaar's aggressive wing play and Noah's 1.57 xGA trend suggest a high-scoring affair, as the visitors exploit technical gaps to secure an aggregate advantage.
17:45 Sigma Olomouc v Lausanne Sports
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
100 WIN
@-136
Win
73
Olomouc maintains a zero percent clean sheet rate recently, while Lausanne sustains a high 1.89 xG. Both teams exhibit significant defensive volatility, guaranteeing a goal exchange given the high-scoring patterns in recent competitive history and current xG data.
Lausanne Sports & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
100 WIN
@+400
Lose
-100
Olomouc averages 2.1 goals conceded while Lausanne features a high match average of 3.8 goals. Lausanne's 1.89 xG dominance and superior offensive momentum support an away win, with both sides scoring due to persistent home defensive instability.
Subtotal-171
18 February 2026
20:00 Bodo/Glimt v Inter Milan
Under 9.50
Total Corners
150 WIN
@-105
Win
142
This Champions League tie averages 9.45 corners per game, staying below the 9.5 line. While open, the stats suggest a more tactical battle rather than a relentless end-to-end corner fest, favoring the under.
20:00 Club Brugge v Atletico Madrid
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
150 WIN
@-149
Win
101
This matchup features a high 69% BTTS rate and an impressive 4.0 goals-per-game average. Both teams display strong attacking metrics (1.69 xG vs 1.82 xG), making goals at both ends statistically probable.
20:00 Olympiacos v Bayer Leverkusen
Under 2.50
Total Goals
150 WIN
@-120
Win
124
Despite decent averages, the key stat is the low 44% Over 2.5 rate. This Champions League fixture suggests a tighter, more tactical battle where defenses prevail, aligning with the odds favoring a low-scoring outcome.
20:00 Wolverhampton v Arsenal
Arsenal & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
150 WIN
@+225
Lose
-150
Arsenal's superior 1.92 PPG away record dominates Wolves' poor 0.38 PPG. However, Wolves' 1.21 xG suggests they can find the net despite the likely defeat, making this a strong value play.
19:45 Aberdeen v Motherwell
Over 2.50
Total Goals
150 WIN
@+100
Lose
-150
While historical cup stats are limited, the expected goals metrics are explosive. Aberdeen (2.13 xG) and Motherwell (1.49 xG) are creating significant chances, making a high-scoring match statistically probable despite the low averages.
19:45 Wigan v Luton
Draw
230 WIN
@+229
Lose
-230
This tight League One clash is statistically balanced. With closely matched xG values (1.34 vs. 1.24) and low goal averages (2.26), neither side has a decisive edge, making a stalemate the most probable outcome.
19:00 Levante v Villarreal
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
150 WIN
@-142
Lose
-150
This La Liga fixture averages 3.0 goals per game with a 64% BTTS rate. Both teams generate consistent scoring opportunities (1.22 xG vs. 1.06 xG), making a mutual scoring outcome highly probable.
18:00 Winterthur v St Gallen
Over 2.50
Total Goals
150 WIN
@-200
Win
75
This Super League clash features a 3.46 goals-per-game average and an 87% BTTS rate. With a 73% Over 2.5 trend, both teams' open style makes a high-scoring match statistically probable.
17:45 FK Qarabag v Newcastle
Under 2.50
Total Goals
150 WIN
@+150
Lose
-150
This is a high-risk, value based selection. While statistical trends favor goals, the generous odds (2.50) offer significant upside on a tighter, tactical Champions League affair where defenses priorotize caution over attacking flair.
Subtotal-388
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
