HorseQuant9
Model predictions for horses - I run a quantitative strategy which puts all relevant features into a model and gives me a probability outcome for each. I will try to keep each horse tip comments in the same format.
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Estimated Prizes
this month
£0
Estimated Prize money
this month
HorseQuant9's Tips History
01 May 2025
18:35 6:35 Punchestown
Ksar Fatal
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.62
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Ksar Fatal should win this one. Highest RPR of the field, Mullins yard in fine form, and doesn't carry any extra weight for the privilege. I think it's interesting Patrick prefers this to Dani Donadoni. Prior form figures of 1, 1.
18:00 6:00 Punchestown
Crambo
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Crambo can win this. Crambo steps out with a relatively high RPR, only 4 diff to the top of the market. All runners carry the same weight with the exception of Jetara. Teahupoo is the previous winner of this event last year and is the big favourite, but Crambo is also a previous Class 1 Grade 1 3m winner at Ascot. So if the same kind of form can be shown, it could be interesting.
17:25 5:25 Punchestown
Rubaud
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
The model I run says Rubaud can get his nose in front here for this one. Majborugh is a massive odds-on favourite, but this festival has been a bit of a graveyard for odds-on favourites so far, so happy to take a chance here. Down to the numbers - Rubaud has reasonable form coming into this, prior figures of 1,1,F,2,1,5. Lots of ability and evidence of placing at a good standard. Harry Cobden picks up the reins, who is experienced and in good form.
16:50 4:50 Punchestown
Timetoshine
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@23.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Timetoshine can cause an upset here. Sixandahalf is large odds-on favorite, but Timetoshine comes in here in spectacular form. Prior readings of 1, 1, 1 in last 3 outings over this 2m trip. Big odds offer each way angle and there are 3 places paying in this 10-runner field.
16:15 4:15 Punchestown
All For Rachel
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@67.00
Void
0
The model I run suggests All For Rachel can win this race. Admittedly, this model output looks a bit questionable, but I thought that earlier in the week when it predicted Buy Some Time to win at 51/1, so I have to take this at face value. All For Rachel has the highest RPR on the racecard, but the lowest official ranking, meaning this horse steps out carrying the lowest weight of the field. It is a horse in reserve, so it might not even run. But 67s is huge and looks overpriced to me. Each way is still viable at these prices and extra places on offer.
15:40 3:40 Punchestown
Vital Island
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@15.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Vital Island can win this one and get over the line first. This horse steps out with a mid-range RPR but carries quite a bit less weight than the main pack due to Mr. Stone on board claiming 7 lbs. This is a monster distance of 4m 1f, and Vital Island hasn't been run since winning this event last year. Admittedly, with a 15-runner field, you need things to go your way, but some of the other horses' forms don't look particularly great either, so maybe it's a returning victory for Vital Island.
15:05 3:05 Punchestown
Keep Running
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Keep Running can get over the line first here. Keep Running sets out with the highest RPR of the field but is nowhere near the highest official ranking on the card, meaning the weights being carried over the 2m round trip are manageable. Sean Bowen picks up the reins, who's in excellent form. Prior form readings of 1, 1, 2 in the last 3 races over Jan/Feb.
14:30 2:30 Punchestown
The Other Mozzie
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests The Other Mozzie should get over the line first here. Sets out carrying the most weight, but is the highest RPR of the field and the highest official rank here. Previous good win at Ayr just over 2 weeks before this so comes here in good form.
Subtotal-350
30 April 2025
18:35 6:35 Punchestown
Future Prospect
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Future Prospect should win this race. There is quite a large bifurcation in this market between the top 3 or 4 horses and the rest. Future Prospect steps out with the highest RPR of the field. All horses carry the same weight, and so really it is largely about form and potential. Mullins' horses have been in fine form, and that just tips the vote ahead of the other main danger, Seo Linn, who has won the last 2 NHF at Cheltenham and Aintree.
18:05 6:05 Punchestown
Must Be Obeyed
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@15.00
Void
0
The model I run suggests Must Be Obeyed can win this race. 15 runners is a large field, so statistically there is potential for a bit of an upset in these wider field races. Must Be Obeyed steps out with the second highest RPR of the field but has an official ranking that is 25 less than the top of the market. There are 4 places on offer here for B365, so each way is a potential angle here if you prefer that style of trade.
17:30 5:30 Punchestown
Galopin Des Champs
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.25
Win
62
The model I run suggests Galopin Des Champs can win this race. There is only a small field of 4 runners for this longer 3m Grade 1 chase, but Paul Townend picks up the reins for Willy Mullins. This horse has by far the highest RPR of the field, the highest official rating, and does not carry any extra weight for the privilege.
16:50 4:50 Punchestown
Switch From Diesel
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@10.00
Lose
-50
The model I run that simulates horse races suggests Switch From Diesel could cause an upset and win this one. This horse steps out with the highest RPR of the field and carries the joint lowest weight (joint with Bambino Fever). Switch From Diesel comes here in good form with figures of 4, 3, 2, 1, 1 all scattered around Irish courses over the 2m distance.
16:15 4:15 Punchestown
Jasmin De Vaux
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.63 used instead of 2.50 takenBOG
@2.63
Win
81
The model I run suggests Jasmin De Vaux should win this one, ahead of Familiar Dreams in second and Honesty Policy in third. This race looks trappy and absolutely stacked with talent, but I'll run through the numbers from the model. Jasmin De Vaux steps out with the highest Official Ranking of the field of 8 runners. Also steps out with the highest RPR by quite a long way, and the weights do not seem to penalize for the honor. Everyone (except Familiar Dreams) steps out carrying 11-10 weight, with no jockey claiming. Paul Townend is W Mullins' trusted jockey and picks up the reins.
15:40 3:40 Punchestown
Tradecraft
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Tradecraft can win this one. The race simulation had Tradecraft in first, ahead of Got Glory in second and American Mike in third. This result was largely driven by Tradecraft having good form with a first recently at Sandown. James Bowen on board picks up the reins and is also in good form. The top of this market just doesn't look convincing, with Got Glory showing P, F, F. Kaid D'authie being pulled on last run and the others all finishing outside the top 5.
15:05 3:05 Punchestown
Champagne Jury
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Champagne Jury should win this one. The race simulation had this horse coming in first, due to having a reasonably high RPR compared to a lot of the other runners but carrying only a mid-range weighting. Stone-Walsh on board also relieves 3 lbs, taking the total weight carried firmly down to the lower order. Good form figures of 2, 1, 2 mean this should be in with a good chance here.
14:30 2:30 Punchestown
Polemon
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@34.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Polemon can win this 25-runner large field race. I am skeptical about the output here, but after having just predicted Buy Some Time at 51s and Transprint at 22s yesterday, I have to take this at face value. With so many runners in a race like this, anything is possible. 34s is such a large price that each way is viable, and 6 places are on offer with B365. Down to the numbers - Polemon steps out with the highest RPR of the field, but also with the joint lowest rating, meaning he is carrying the least weight on this 2m 3f trip. Comes into this race with a decent 2m 4f effort at Clonmel only 2 weeks ago, so clearly has the distance in him.
Subtotal-107
29 April 2025
18:35 6:35 Punchestown
Starting Fifteen
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests the last race of the day can be won by Starting Fifteen. This is another large 25-runner race and plenty of unknowns in a race this size. Starting Fifteen has the highest RPR of the field and carries effectively the same weight as everyone else. Not too much history to go on here with another field of 4 YOs, but a previous second at Limerick a month ago means coming into this race in good form and has to be in with a shout.
18:00 6:00 Punchestown
Fact To File
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Fact To File can win this race ahead of the others. The race simulation has Fact To File coming in first, ahead of Marine Nationale in second and El Fabiolo in third. Fact To File has the highest RPR of the group, the highest official ranking, but doesn't get penalized in the weights for it. The main question here is the value in the price. My model only has a 5% differential in winning probability between the top two, so 1.83 looks like a steep price / not great value.
17:38 5:38 Nottingham
Whatacracker
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.50
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Whatacracker should win this race. Steps out with the highest RPR of the field, the lowest official ranking of the field, and therefore the least weight to carry over the 1m 2f trip. Beach Point is seen as the main danger, having 3 seconds in a row with Oisin Murphy on board.
17:25 5:25 Punchestown
Santo Sospir
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@6.50
Void
0
The model I run suggests Santo Sospir can win this in what is a large field 20 runner race. All horses are 4 years old without too much experience. The market leader currently is Leader Des Bordes, who is a half-brother to unbeaten Kopek Des Bordes. You can see the argument for having this horse as favourite, but Santo Sospir is a recent course and distance winner in this NHF, has the highest RPR of the field, and sets out carrying the same weight as the rest of the field. For that reason, Santo Sospir gets the nod at what could arguably be considered a big price @ 6.50s.
17:03 5:03 Nottingham
Bay Of Dreams
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Bay of Dreams should win this race. The simulated result has Bay of Dreams first, Warm Glow in second, and I'll Give it a Go in third. This result has largely been driven by Bay of Dreams having the highest RPR of the field, the second lowest official rating, and therefore the second least weight to carry. This is a step up in class today, but if carrying on with current form, then in with a good shout.
16:50 4:50 Punchestown
Lecky Watson
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Lecky Watson can win this one. Steps out with the highest RPR of the field, the second highest OR, and isn't really punished in the weights. There are some genuine dangers at the top of the market, with the likes of Ballyburn, Impaire Et Passe, and Slade Steel all in good form. Lecky Watson is a course and distance winner, and that just about tips it in his favor ahead of the others.
16:28 4:28 Nottingham
Jane Temple
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@9.50
Void
0
The model I run suggests Jane Temple can get over the line first here, ahead of Ambiente Amigo in second and Francophone in third. This result has largely been driven by prior good form in Oct/Nov of 2,1. Taken a break since, but if reappearing with that same level of form, it could be a good opportunity here.
16:15 4:15 Punchestown
Kopek Des Bordes
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@1.44
Lose
-50
The model I run says Kopek Des Bordes should win this race ahead of Salvator Mundi in second and Irancy in third. This does very much look like a two-horse race between Kopek Des Bordes and Salvator Mundi. Kopek Des Bordes has the highest RPR and the highest OR, but all horses in this race step out carrying the same weight. Form reads 1-111.
15:53 3:53 Nottingham
Noisy Jazz
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Noisy Jazz should win this race. The race simulation has Noisy Jazz in first, Under the Twilight in second, and Bellarchi in third. This result has largely been driven by Noisy Jazz having the highest RPR and drops in class today from the previous two races.
15:40 3:40 Punchestown
Wilful
Daily Racing
25 EW
@9.00
Win
15
The model I run suggests Wilful can get his nose in front here in this massive 25-horse race. This horse has the joint highest RPR of the field, the lowest Official Ranking, and subsequently the lowest weight to carry. Ben Smith also claims 7 lbs over the 2m 3f trip. With a race of this size, many things need to go your way, but there are 6 placings on offer with B365. I rarely like each way, but this looks like the best play.
15:18 3:18 Nottingham
Con Te Partiro
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Con Te Partiro can cause an upset here. Odds are huge, so each way still offers value. Sets out with the second highest RPR of the field, has the joint lowest rating, and therefore the lowest weight to carry over the reasonably long 1m6f trip.
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14:43 2:43 Nottingham
City Of Strangers
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-50
City of Strangers is the suggested winner by the horse racing model that I run. This horse ran only one day before, so it has racing fitness. If anything, the question is if the turnaround is too quick. City of Strangers has the highest RPR of the field and the highest official rating, but doesn't seem to be overly punished by the weights. It has been drawn in stall 8, but this should have less impact given the good to firm ground.
14:30 2:30 Punchestown
Transprint
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 10.00 on 28/04 at 19:200.00 deduction for Kings Jet@15.00 withdrawn at 11:090.20 deduction for Keep On Dreaming @5.000 withdrawn at 11:090.00 deduction for Empire Soldier @17.000 withdrawn at 11:09R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 9.00 x (1-0.2) = 8.20Best Odds Guaranteed SP 23.00 used instead of 8.20 BOG
@23.00
Win
1100
The model I run suggests Transprint can get over the line first here in the opening Punchestown race. Transprint has the highest RPR and sets out carrying what is effectively the joint lowest weight of the field. There are a lot of claiming jockeys on this race card, which muddies the water somewhat, but James Doyle is on board claiming 7 lbs.
14:08 2:08 Nottingham
Calafrio
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Calafrio can win this one. Sets out with the highest RPR of the field, a good recent second at Thirsk when having the cheekpieces fitted in a class 6 handicap. Can go one better here and get over the line first.
Subtotal615
27 April 2025
17:30 5:30 Wetherby
Going Underground
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Going Underground could cause an upset here. A price of 13s offers the each-way angle if that's preferable too. Going Underground has the second highest RPR of the field (only behind Miss Willows) and has the third lowest OR, meaning less weight to carry. A relatively high Top Speed, comparable to the top of the market, and over this 7f good ground, maybe that can be the difference.
17:00 5:00 Wetherby
Zappata
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.00
Win
150
The model I run suggests Zapatta can get over the line first here. Previous good second at Yarmouth 4 days ago and hopefully fresh enough to go one better today. Drawn at favorable stall 3 should give an opportunity to get in a good position around the bend. Zapatta has the highest RPR of the field, the lowest OR, and steps out with the least weight to carry over this 1m trip.
16:30 4:30 Wetherby
First Company
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests First Company can do just what it says on the tin - come first. A favorable draw of 4 on this very short 5f 110y run can mean he can go well from the front with Billy Loughnane on board. The race simulation result has largely been driven by First Company having the highest RPR of the field, the lowest OR, and subsequently the least weight to carry.
16:00 4:00 Wetherby
Manila Thriller
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Manila Thriller can win this one. Previous good first at Nottingham over the 1m distance. Goes up in class here, but a kind draw in stall 1 near the rail could see her get it done again. Wetherby swings around to the left, and a good start could see her in pole position through the bend.
15:30 3:30 Wetherby
Power Of Gold
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@6.00
Lose
-50
The model I run has Power of Gold coming in first, ahead of Jesmond Dawn in second and Commander of Life in third. This race simulation result has largely been driven by Power of Gold having the joint highest RPR of the field and the second highest Official Ranking. The weight difference doesn't look significant here, and Power of Gold ran a decent 3rd at Pontefract 13 days ago.
15:00 3:00 Wetherby
Gloriously Sassy
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-50
The model I run has Gloriously Sassy coming in first, ahead of Komodo Island in second and Hymnbook in third. Gloriously Sassy has the second highest RPR of the field, but a considerably lower weight to carry than the others in the same category. Arabian Force is the market leader currently, but with a 6th place class maiden finish in early April and a stall draw of 9, I think Gloriously Sassy is better placed here.
14:30 2:30 Wetherby
Coma Cluster
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-50
The model I run simulates this race and has Coma Cluster coming in first ahead of Questionable in second and Beatrice Thriller in third. Coma Cluster has the highest RPR of the field, a relatively competitive official ranking, and steps out carrying the second lowest weight to carry over the 1m 2f distance. Billy Loughnane on board, reliable jockey.
14:00 2:00 Wetherby
Clermont Ferrand
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Clermont Ferrand can get over the line first here. Clermont sets off with the highest RPR of the field, is a year older than the other runners, so should have more experience under his belt. He does carry the most weight here by a good 17 lbs. Regal Agenda, another horse near the top of the market, was beaten by Clermont Ferrand on 5th April at Yarmouth.
Subtotal-200
26 April 2025
16:45 4:45 Sandown
Mostly Sunny
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Mostly Sunny can come in first ahead of Got Grey in second and Electric Mason in third. This result has largely been driven by Mostly Sunny having the second highest RPR of the field, a relatively low OR compared to other runners and therefore carries the second lowest weight of the field. This could be the difference over 2m 4f. The model predicted Mostly Sunny to win @ 15s when racing at Plumpton 5 days ago for similar reasons so hard not to trust it here.
16:10 4:10 Sandown
Victtorino
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@17.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Victtorino might be able to cause an upset here. This race simulation had Victtorino in first, coming in ahead of Dancing City in second and High Class Hero in third. These results were largely driven by Victtorino having the highest RPR of the entire field, but a favorable OR which allows him to carry less weight here. I would have question marks about the top of the market having 3m 4f in them, given prior distances run are all well below 3m. On the other hand, Victtorino has prior 1st at Ascot (twice) on good ground.
15:35 3:35 Sandown
Jonbon
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@1.57
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests this race will be won by Jonbon, ahead of Energumene in second and Il Etait Temps in third. Jonbon has the form, the only blemish being the second at Cheltenham (which was a very good second given the circumstances) and should add another first here. Jonbon is a previous course and distance winner, has the highest RPR by miles, and sets out without having to carry any extra weight for the trouble. All 7 horses are carrying 11-10.
15:00 3:00 Sandown
Salver
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Salver might be able to cause an upset here and come in ahead of Kitzbuhel in second and Lucky Place in third. Salver has the second highest rating in the field (only 1 below Kitzbuhel) but carries a bit less weight over the 2m 5f trip. One thing that I did notice on the cards is that Kitzbuhel hasn't actually run this distance before. There have been efforts around 2m which have been successful, but when asked for more over 3m at Aintree, came a disappointing 5th there. This feels like the right distance and class for Salver to cause an upset and provides value if you prefer each way (1/4 1-2 places).
14:25 2:25 Sandown
Gaelic Warrior
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.25
Win
62
The model I run suggests Gaelic Warrior can come in first, ahead of Gentleman De Mee. This horse has the highest RPR of the field and the highest official ranking, but doesn't seem to be punished in the weights. Paul Townend is a trusted jockey and is on board for Willie Mullins.
13:50 1:50 Sandown
Classic Anthem
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Classic Anthem can come in first here, ahead of Insurrection in second and Riskintheground in third, respectively. This simulated result has largely been driven by Classic Anthem having the second highest RRP of the field, but by far the lowest OR. This leaves him with the lowest weight to carry, and compared to other good runners like Bad and Riskintheground, we're talking a weight differential of 15 lbs over the 2m round trip. Sean Bowen is on board for this one.
13:20 1:20 Sandown
Sorceleur
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.50
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Sourceleur can come in first in the Sandown opener tomorrow. Sourceleur has the joint highest RPR of the 14 runners in this field, with a favorable OR. This subsequently leaves it with a good 10 lbs difference to others near the top of the market (such as Serious Challenge). Harry Cobden is in great form and picks up the reins.
Subtotal-238
25 April 2025
19:47 7:47 Fontwell
Clinton Lane
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
The model I run has Clinton Lane getting over the line first in this race. This result has largely been driven by having the highest RPR of all the runners and a manageable weight to carry. The jockey on board also relieves 3 lbs.
19:35 7:35 Chepstow
Red Nika
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Red Nika can win this one ahead of the others. This result has largely been driven by having the second highest RPR of the field. All horses are carrying the same weight, but all jockeys are claiming varying amounts. Sean Oconner picks up the reins here, claiming 5 lbs.
19:17 7:17 Fontwell
King Of The Story
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests King Of The Story can get over the line first here today. This horse is a previous course winner, so obviously likes this track. It has the highest RPR of the field and a considerably lower OR. This subsequently leaves less weight to carry over the 2m 3f.
19:05 7:05 Chepstow
King Of Records
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests King Of Records can win this race. Much higher RPR compared to the rest of the field, steps out carrying similar weight to the rest of the field, and Charlie Deutch picks up the reins. The biggest threat here is Roadshow, who's running his second race since a wind op.
18:35 6:35 Chepstow
Courageous Strike
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@1.57
Win
28
The model I run suggests Courageous Strike can win this one ahead of the other runners. He has by far the highest RPR of the field, the lowest weight to carry, and steps out with Harry Cobden on board. Paul Nichols has a high RTF%. The main question here is, do you want the risk at a price of 1.57?
18:17 6:17 Fontwell
Kingston Gent
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@10.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Kingston Gent can come in first ahead of the rest of the field. There is a mismatch here between the RPR of this runner and the OR. Kingston Gent has an RPR that's near the top of the market but an OR that leaves him carrying less weight. He's relatively unexposed and can improve on quicker ground. The market leader hasn't run in 202 days and that would leave me with some question marks over the top of the market.
18:05 6:05 Chepstow
Ballybreeze
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 1.91 used instead of 1.83 takenBOG
@1.91
Win
45
The model I run suggests Ballybreeze can win this one ahead of the others. Only 3 runners in this race, two prior course and distance winners. Ballybreeze has had a small gap of 34 days since the last run, compared to Doyouknowwhatimean who last ran 4 days ago. 4 days is a very quick turnaround, and so siding with the slightly fresher horse. Sam Twistin Davies picks up the reins for the 2m1f trip.
17:47 5:47 Fontwell
Sangiovese
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.25
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Sangiovese can win this one ahead of the other runners. This result has largely been driven by Sangiovese having the highest RPR of the field, and a mid-range OR leaving this horse with a reasonable weight to carry. Tom Cannon picks up the reins, who's in good form, and this horse steps out in a visor for the first time, which can aid concentration.
17:15 5:15 Fontwell
Lahinch Wave
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Lahinch Wave can get over the line first in this one. Previous outing (a long time ago now) came first. Steps out for the first time in a hood to aid concentration. Main concern is the length of time between the last run and this.
17:00 5:00 Perth
Wilstar
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.50 used instead of 1.91 takenBOG
@2.50
Win
75
The model I run simulates this race and has Wilstar coming in first ahead of the other runners. Wilstar has the joint highest RPR of the field. Sean Bowen picks up the reins.
16:30 4:30 Chepstow
Kdeux Saint Fray
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.50
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Kdeux Saint Fray can win this one ahead of The Blues Man in second and Lieutenant Mayne. This result has largely been driven by Kdeux Saint Fray having the largest RPR of the field, previous course winner. Form is good, comes here after a string of 1s and 2s. The 6 from prior race was a material step up in class and that needs to be overlooked as we drop back down to class 4 here today. The Blues Man hasn't run in 154 days and is only running for the second time since a wind op, so those are large unknowns to be aware of.
15:52 3:52 Perth
Jem In Em
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.50
Lose
-50
The model I run simulates this race and has Jem In Em coming in first ahead of the other runners. Conner McCann on board is claiming 7 lbs over this longer stamina test of 3m 2f. Lucinda Russell's horses are in good form and can add another winner here.
15:17 3:17 Perth
Ganapathi
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@11.00
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Ganapathi can win this race. This horse has the highest RPR, the lowest official ranking in the running, and therefore steps out carrying the least weight on the field over this 3m round trip.
13:32 1:32 Perth
Spadestep
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.88
Lose
-50
The model I run suggests Spadestep can come in first in this race. This horse has the highest RPR of the field by quite a lot. Lucinda Russell's horses are in good form, and this 6-year-old came a good second for this distance in Carlisle last month. Can follow up with a win here.
Subtotal-402
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
