perogative

I'm a horse racing enthusiast. I compile various systems and that can narrow the field down to just a few . From there I study from to find hopefully a value selection. Win probability and statistics are can help in selections and I try to some horses that could win on the day that may go under the radar.

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perogative's Tips History

11 October 2025

17:05 5:05 York

Rajapour

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@9.50

Lose

-50

16:30 4:30 York

Terrorise

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@13.00

Lose

-50

15:40 3:40 Newmarket

Mordor

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@19.00

Lose

-50

I have this narrowed down to 5. I have eliminated 4 of them for various reasons: Barnso (no jumps experience), Bunting (ground), Beylerbeyi (trainer 0/29 in this race), Fireblade (no jumps experience). I'm left with Mordor, who ticks most of the trends.

15:15 3:15 York

Eye Of Dubai

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@15.00

Void

14:05 2:05 York

Erzindjan

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

10 October 2025

19:15 7:15 Kempton

Van Aert

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@15.00

Lose

-50

Hollie Doyle returns to the saddle today. The combination succeeded when last seen at Kempton. Beat Captain Brett that day who won a race 2 races later off 7lb higher.

16:55 4:55 Chepstow

Old Bridge

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@41.00

Lose

-50

David Pipe sponsors this race. He has 2 runners. I'm going with the outsider of the two. Old Bridge raced in a class 2 LTO and was up with the pace before being pulled up. Consequently, dropped 4lb and now has a 10lb claimer on board. Essentially, a stone better off than its last run. Has placed form over hurdles and may outrun these odds.

16:17 4:17 Chepstow

Welcom To Cartries

Daily Racing

50 WINNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@3.50

Void

Second season novice who has experience of running in 2 graded contests last year. Finished 6 lengths adrift of Handstands in one of those. That horse won its next 2 races and is now rated 157.

14:32 2:32 Chepstow

Springs A Girl

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@5.00

Void

Races off the same mark as when beaten a length in a class 3 last time out on handicap chase debut. Bowen keeps the ride. Can go one better.

14:25 2:25 Newmarket

Poet Master

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.33

Lose

-50

The first two in the market have won the last nine renewals of this race. Poet Master is currently the second favorite, has CD form, and is top-rated.

09 October 2025

19:45 7:45 Chelmsford City

Suzuka

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-50

Steadily improving. Finished top half of the field in the last four starts. Now 7lb below initial handicap rating. De Sousa can steer her home.

17:45 5:45 Chelmsford City

Startling

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Startling had Cabeza De Llave and Dark Side Prince behind in September. Form figures of 121 at Chelmsford. Geatrix is 2/2 on board. Can uphold the form.

17:22 5:22 Bath

Hardlass

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@21.00

Lose

-50

Hardlass might not mind some cut in the ground as his sire won on soft. Runs off the same mark as when second over CD in a class 5 in May. K O Neill seems to be the go-to jockey for this owner (2 wins, 1 place from 9 starts for a profit of +25). Indeed, O Neill partnered Harlington first past the post 10 days ago at 22/1. Deja Vu.

16:55 4:55 Newcastle

La Cadalora

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.50

Lose

-50

2 lb well in here. Finished second or third in the last 3 starts. Dropped 1 lb from the last handicap rating. Loghnanne keeps the ride after being beaten a short head last time out.

16:47 4:47 Bath

Silver Wraith

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.50

Win

175

Beaten a neck in a higher class last time out. Likely favorite Starproof only won a class 6 last time out and got hiked 8 lb. Silver Wraith has more scope for improvement.

16:30 4:30 Ayr

Shine On Brendan

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@8.00

Lose

-50

Shine On Brendan can repeat his win here last year. Ran well last time out and now is dropped 2 lb. He was rated 3 lb higher last year. Same jockey, similar going. All points to a good run.

16:20 4:20 Newcastle

Reel Her In

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@19.00

Lose

-50

Reel Her In won here last October off 57 and 58. Rated 59 today, he is only 2 lb higher than winning in July. Can go well if ready after a break.

16:12 4:12 Bath

Kotari

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@6.50

Void

Running better last 3 starts. Now 15 lb below last winning mark, so deserves closer analysis. Same jockey on today as then. Watson is 2/4 on board. First-time blinkers can help him concentrate. Likes some cut.

13:23 1:23 Bath

Masterdream

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@15.00

Lose

-50

Masterdream arrives in top form, having won 2 handicap chases recently. Seems nicely handicapped on flat turf form here too. It is his lowest rating on the turf. Rated 61 today, he was second in July off 66.

08 October 2025

20:10 8:10 Kempton

Polar Rebel

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@11.00

Lose

-50

Polar Rebel finished second to South Kensington 2 starts back. That horse obliged at Brighton on Tuesday. Races off 53 again today and can go one better.

19:10 7:10 Kempton

Dragonflame

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@10.00

Lose

-50

Started favorite on his only 2 runs at Kempton in Class 5 handicaps. Finished second and third then. Can make it third time lucky off 1 lb higher. The combination of blinkers and the booking of top-earning stable jockey may point to a good run.

17:00 5:00 Nottingham

Shark Two One

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.00

Lose

-50

Shark One Two was well backed into favorite last time out. Compensation may await here. Running consistently for most of 2025 and has performed well for this jockey previously.

16:35 4:35 Kempton

Penn Avenue

Daily Racing

75 WINNAP

@6.50

Lose

-75

Can make it 3 wins from 5. Since stepping up to 12f, he has won one and placed second in another from two starts on the turf. Decent chance reverting to AW.

16:30 4:30 Nottingham

Caughtredhanded

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@8.50

Lose

-50

Finished 1 length behind The Ability in a maiden. That horse has won a class 4, a class 3, and a class 2 since and is now rated 100 or more. Conceivable to assume that Caughtredhanded is rated higher than 76. Owner sent out handicap debutante winner in July. Havlin is the top-earning jockey for the owner and has a positive 20%+ strike rate.

07 October 2025

19:30 7:30 Southwell

Moab

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@6.00

Win

250

Hollie Doyle is an eye-catching booking here. She is 2 from 4 for Henrietta Knight. Beaten over a length at Ffos Las in a class 6 when favorite. Dropped 3 lb since. Races off a career low mark. Now 12 lb below AW handicap debut.

18:30 6:30 Southwell

Sarafina Mshairi

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 8.50 on 06/10 at 21:230.10 deduction for Moostar@8.00 withdrawn at 18:35R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 7.50 x (1-0.10) = 7.75Best Odds Guaranteed SP 8.00 used instead of 7.75 BOG

@8.00

Win

350

Started favorite or second favorite in the last 3 class 5 handicaps. AW form is 1 win, 2 places from 5 starts. Ran her maiden at Southwell. Georgie Dobie returns for the ride.

17:35 5:35 Leicester

Big Apple Jack

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@10.00

Lose

-50

Beaten just over a length last time out. The winner has gone in again, so the form has been franked. Racing consistently, and first-time visor may see improvement.

17:15 5:15 Brighton

Blue Collar Lad

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Twice finished behind Kranjcar in September. Beaten 1 1/2 lengths in the latest attempt. Kranjcar has won since. Running creditably since the application of blinkers.

16:30 4:30 Leicester

Hiya Maite

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@10.00

Lose

-50

Tried to steal a class 3 LTO and may have succeeded if the ground was better. Drops to class 4 here. 2 wins, 2 seconds in class 4s from 5 attempts.

16:07 4:07 Huntingdon

Lyness Dancer

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.25

Lose

-50

15:37 3:37 Huntingdon

Davidoc

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-50

Has started as favorite 4 out of 5 times when racing between 16-20 furlongs in class 4 events. Hasn't won yet, but surely the market can't be wrong all the time. New trainer and first-time headgear may add some spark.

14:00 2:00 Leicester

Portoro

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Finished second at Leicester last time out under a 7lb claimer. Has another go today under a different 7lb claimer from an unchanged mark. His Leicester record is 2 seconds from 2 attempts.

06 October 2025

20:30 8:30 Wolverhampton

Ottoman

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@11.00

Lose

-50

Aiden Brookes has 1 win and 3 places for this horse. Dropped 1 lb since return from break. Thereabouts if taking to AW.

17:45 5:45 Yarmouth

Muma Myflo

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

Didn't take to AW last time out. Ran well on turf before that, finishing 2 lengths behind Tiva at HQ. The second that day has won a class 4 since. Drops 2 classes and runs off 4 lb lower today.

17:00 5:00 Stratford

Begin The Luck

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@12.00

Lose

-50

The owner likes sending her horses to Stratford. 2 wins from 3 (66%). Begin The Luck has form figures of 1231 at Stratford. Has a lower handicap rating today than any of those four runs.

16:50 4:50 Pontefract

Diamand De Vindecy

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.33

Lose

-50

First and second already at Pontefract this year. Both in class 4s. Drops to class 5 today. Dropped 3lb from latest second at Pontefract.

14:05 2:05 Stratford

Baltray

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

Lavelle uses this claimer well. Johnson-Baker has won 3 times and placed 4 times for Lavelle. Has started as favorite or second favorite in its last 4 class 4 handicap hurdles. Has run well after a break before.

05 October 2025

17:10 5:10 Uttoxeter

Leading Force

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.00

Lose

-50

Hard to Catch, right? He is either out with the washing like his last two starts or runs very well. I'm going with the latter in this race to replicate a CD win in May.

16:53 4:53 Kelso

Looking Splendid

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 6.00 on 04/10 at 22:010.15 deduction for Lewa House@6.50 withdrawn at 08:050.10 deduction for Take A Hike @10.000 withdrawn at 13:530.00 deduction for Wolfburg @17.000 withdrawn at 15:35R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 5.00 x (1-0.25) = 4.75

@4.75

Win

187

Started as favorite or second favorite in the last three starts. Racing consistently, finishing in the top half of the field in 3 out of the last 4 starts.

04 October 2025

20:15 8:15 Newcastle

Merapi

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.20

Lose

-50

Was a good second on handicap debut at Salisbury last time out. Races from an unchanged mark and stays in the same class. Can go one better.

19:00 7:00 Wolverhampton

Damzon

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@15.00

Lose

-50

Finished third in a Class 5 over CD a few races back. Drops to a Class 6 here. Now 5lb below initial handicap rating and has a 5lb claimer on board, so you could say he is 10lb better off.

17:37 5:37 Redcar

Lexington Blitz

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

Now 5 lb below initial handicap rating. Finished second twice recently at or around this mark. Cowell has a healthy 21% strike rate for the owner.

17:30 5:30 Wolverhampton

Saffredi

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@10.00

Lose

-50

Has won twice at Wolverhampton from 4 starts since joining Harris. Form figures of 113 over CD. Good second LTO, finishing well ahead of the third horse.

17:00 5:00 Newmarket

Cognisance

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.00

Lose

-50

Race didn't go to plan last time out. Has won twice over 7 furlongs. There should be no ground or distance issues. Can resume winning ways if ready to roll.

16:30 4:30 Redcar

Donna Nook

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@17.00

Lose

-50

D. O'Meara acquisition from Ger Lyons. Dropped markedly in distance from LTO. Has won once from 2 attempts at 7 furlongs.

16:10 4:10 Ascot

King Of Light

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Won nicely LTO at Haydock. Retains combination of headgear here. De Sousa keeps the ride. He can make it 2/2 for the owner.

15:50 3:50 Newmarket

Albany

Daily Racing

50 WINNBR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@12.00

Void

Top weight here, who got outpaced over 2f shorter last time out when starting as the favorite. The winner of that race re-opposes, but the selection now has a 5lb pull at the weights for a 5-length beating. This trip will suit better.

15:35 3:35 Ascot

Thunder Roar

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@23.00

Lose

-50

Had to runs within a day of each other at Ascot in early September, presumably to acclimatize himself to the track for this. Won last time out when regaining fitness after a break. May run well at a price.

14:46 2:46 Redcar

Token Love

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@12.00

Lose

-50

Makes handicap debut at Redcar where he finished second in his novice days. Wasn't fancied last time out in a better race. This is more his cup of tea. Could improve for step up in distance.

14:11 2:11 Redcar

Condotti

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@15.00

Lose

-50

Now 5lb below initial handicap rating. Returns to class 4 handicap where he was placed twice off 70 during the summer. Races off 67 now. P Orr has a 33% strike rate for Palmer (1 win, 1 place from 3).

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.

perogative

perogative's Tips History

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