bigcoat

3

Estimated Prizes
this month

£15

Estimated Prize money
this month

bigcoat's Tips History

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15 February 2025
16:15 4:15 Gowran Park

Prince Zaltar

Daily Racing

200 WINNB

@4.50

Lose

-200

Philip Rothwell's 8yo is completely unexposed over fences. Seeing as his current chase rating is a stone under his hurdles mark, he has to be the bet. He ran a very encouraging race last month at Punchestown after 400 days off. Usually claimer or amateur ridden, Darragh O'Keefe looks an eye-catching booking.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Ascot

Altobelli

Daily Racing

250 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@5.00

Win

1000

Following his CD win 4 weeks ago, Harry Fry's 7yo was made ante-post favourite for last week's big handicap hurdle at Newbury (formerly the Betfair Hurdle or if you're ancient like me, the Schweppes), but this race was surely always going to be the destination given his good track record. The step-up in trip allied with the cheekpieces clearly helped him to his first handicap win, and I feel he's a bit better than a class 2 handicapper.
1 member found this comment useful
13 February 2025
15:30 3:30 Clonmel

Mount Shenshan

Daily Racing

50 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 13.00 used instead of 10.00 takenBOG

@13.00

Win

720

It's often hard to evaluate handicap hurdle form with maiden hurdles. On the book, Thomas Mullins' 7yo has little chance with the favorite Bossofthebus. However, the selection 3 or 4 times in hurdles and bumpers suggests that her mark of 97 could be workable. This race will take little winning, and the favorite, though a good winner last time, is not the most fluent of jumpers and flopped when well backed at Sligo in October. Mount Shenshan is worth a small ew bet.
12 February 2025
16:13 4:13 Wetherby

Hardy Du Seuil

Daily Racing

100 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@7.00

Void

0

I'm not 100% sure about Jamie Snowden's 8yo staying on soft ground, but the price has drawn me in. He did come 3rd over CD in Nov 22, but that was on good ground, so who knows? What I do know is he came 5th, beaten by 3 lengths, in a red-hot 57k handicap at Windsor last month, which is really working out. Everything in the race to have run again has done well.
09 February 2025
15:12 3:12 Navan

Pointe A Pitre

Daily Racing

100 EWNAP

@9.00

Lose

-200

This one is far from obvious, but Paul Nolan's 6-year-old mare, contesting her first handicap, is worth a bet now she faces the longest trip she's faced so far. She's shown, both in her bumper run in March 23 and her maiden 5th last month, that she's all about stamina. I expect the unexposed grey to run a big race at this galloping track.
08 February 2025
15:35 3:35 Newbury

Secret Squirrel

Daily Racing

230 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-230

Been debating about this one. Despite the fact Hughie Morrison's progressive 6yo hurdler landed us a touch last month, and I think this course will suit more than Windsor, I'm not entirely sure how much value he is in such a competitive field. We'll find out about 3:40 pm.
13:50 1:50 Newbury

Up For Parol

Daily Racing

200 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-200

Up For Parol's success at Ffos Las was his first win since December 2021 when he won off the same mark as he runs today. Jamie Snowden's 9-year-old certainly progressed for his seasonal debut at Sandown and seems to have improved for being stepped up to 3m. Having dropped 12lb over 3 years, until his success 4 weeks ago, I think there's another win looming on the horizon.
07 February 2025
12:50 12:50 Kempton

Plantaroma

Daily Racing

200 WINNAP

@6.00

Lose

-200

Tom Symond's 5yo made her handicap debut in a better race than this at Newbury just after Christmas and races off 1lb lower here. Three of the four mares to have run since that race have won since, and the only possible negative I can see is whether this speed track could be too sharp for her. Must be viewed as a solid bet.
04 February 2025
15:45 3:45 Market Rasen

Peejaybee

Daily Racing

100 WINNB

@5.00

Lose

-100

Since winning at Perth last September, the Bowen's 9yo has held his form well. He undoubtedly likes this track, as confirmed when missing out by 3/4l 18 days ago after looking the winner 2 out, with the third over 7l away. It's a trappy race, but this is undoubtedly the value.
15:10 3:10 Market Rasen

Hardy Fella

Daily Racing

200 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 4.50 on 03/02 at 18:020.10 deduction for Benassi@8.00 withdrawn at 14:55R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 3.50 x (1-0.10) = 4.15Best Odds Guaranteed SP 4.50 used instead of 4.15 BOG

@4.50

Win

700

I expect Hardy Fella has been called some rude names by punters in the past, but I think Emma Lavelle's 8yo has been too high in the weights for the past 16 months. In April '23, he ran out an 18-length winner at Ludlow in a 3m handicap hurdle from a 2lb higher mark than Tuesday. After his summer break, he went chasing from a 9lb higher rating and spent the rest of the season handicapped in the 120s, even managing a narrow win at Fontwell in November '23. Reverting back to hurdles this season, he resumed at Worcester last August off 120 and has proceeded to drop down the weights until upped to 3m 19 days ago when he finished a 3/4-length second from 2lb lower. So here he is, running from 112, in an easier race over what is possibly his optimum trip.
1 member found this comment useful
02 February 2025
15:50 3:50 Leopardstown

Mclaurey

Daily Racing

100 EWNAPNOTETip made at odds of 8.00 on 31/01 at 18:320.00 deduction for Strutter@17.00 withdrawn at 06:270.00 deduction for Enniskerry @15.000 withdrawn at 08:170.00 deduction for Grimaud @51.000 withdrawn at 09:150.10 deduction for Jamess Gate @8.000 withdrawn at 09:33R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 7.00 x (1-0.1) = 7.30

@7.30

Win

756

At the risk of sounding repetitive, here's another maiden hurdle winner contesting his first handicap. Connections had been campaigning over further, but the way he won at Limerick 36 days ago, there seems little doubt this is his trip as long as there's a decent pace, which there's sure to be here.
01 February 2025
14:50 2:50 Musselburgh

Saint Segal

Daily Racing

150 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 8.00 used instead of 6.50 takenBOG

@8.00

Win

60

Devon trainer Jane Williams makes a rare trip to Scotland when her star 7-year-old chaser contests this valuable prize. She's never had a runner at Musselburgh before, the only excursions to Scotland being five runners at Kelso, yielding two winners. The form of Saint Segal's runaway win at Newbury last month was given a boost when the well-beaten third, Walking On Air, fell at the last when looking the winner of Doncaster's Great Yorkshire Chase last Saturday. Saint Segal has been plagued by wind problems throughout his career, so this better ground will suit. If adopting the same front-running tactics employed at Newbury, he will take some catching around a track which favours prominent racers.
2 members found this comment useful
14:43 2:43 Wetherby

Mr Bramley

Daily Racing

200 WINNB

@4.50

Win

700

I think Conor O'Farrell may have gone a bit early on Jedd O'Keeffe's lightly raced 7-year-old at Newbury 35 days ago. He hit the front 3 out but started to wander around between 2 out and the last where he was headed. Whether it was lack of concentration or greenness or a combination of both, it's hard to say. But seeing as it was only his 3rd handicap, I'm happy to go in again.
31 January 2025
13:35 1:35 Catterick

Halpha Soleil

Daily Racing

150 WINNAP

@7.00

Lose

-150

It seems to me that Micky Hammond's 8-year-old has been running in a grade too high in his two chase runs so far. Now just 1lb higher than when winning a handicap hurdle at Hexham in good style on soft ground. Usually ridden by the yard's conditional, Brian Hughes takes over for the first time.
27 January 2025
16:31 4:31 Hereford

Sparkling Duke

Daily Racing

100 EWNAP

@10.00

Void

0

The ground is expected to be pretty testing for this low-grade handicap, and Joe Tizzard's 6-year-old looks unexposed in handicaps. He didn't appear to stay in a 3m handicap at Wincanton on Boxing Day, a race in which he was quietly fancied and where the first two home have gone in again since.
25 January 2025
15:15 3:15 Doncaster

The Changing Man

Daily Racing

100 EWNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@6.50

Win

10

Backing a horse that's gone up 7lb since the start of the season without winning cannot be considered good practice, but I feel the luck of Joe Tizzard's consistent handicapper must surely change. Runner-up in Newcastle's Rehearsal Chase & Ascot's Silver Cup, I think a replication of either of those runs would be good enough here.
13:30 1:30 Doncaster

Calico

Daily Racing

200 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-200

The key to Dan Skelton's 9yo chaser is he's much better fresh, as he was when winning at Cheltenham's Showcase meeting in October. His subsequent flop at the Open meeting obviously came too quick, but he has now been freshened up with a 69-day break. With his favored good ground, I expect him to take the beating.
24 January 2025
12:55 12:55 Doncaster

Yealand

Daily Racing

300 WINNAP

@4.50

Lose

-300

Although running more than respectably, I think Jennie Candlish's 6yo would have been unsuited by the sharp nature & undulations of Sedgefield last time. Yealand won well at this track last month (6th won next time) & any overnight rain will be a plus.
23 January 2025
15:58 3:58 Gowran Park

Jeriko De Baune

Daily Racing

50 EW

@12.00

Lose

-100

Was on this last time at 16/1 when it was backed into 7/2 fav. Unfortunately Philip Fenton's 6yo ran as though he needs 6 miles rather than 3, although still managed a well beaten 6th. I'm having a small ew bet in case the pace is strong (it is a boys race)
15:50 3:50 Wetherby

Paddy OMahler

Daily Racing

150 EWNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@7.00

Win

1080

Although an uninspiring 15-race maiden over both bumper and hurdles, Sue Smith's (and Joel Parkinson) 7-year-old has shown enough to take one of these Class 5 handicap hurdles, particularly on soft ground. He encountered plenty of traffic problems by a faller and consequently when the same loose horse in the straight when 5th over course and distance last month. The yard is hitting form in no uncertain fashion and had a well-punted winner at Catterick today (Wednesday).
14:48 2:48 Gowran Park

Yeah Man

Daily Racing

100 EWNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@6.50

Win

10

Gavin Cromwell has his team in fine fettle, and his Yeah Man looks an obvious port of call. Winner of the Haydock Grand National trial last February, he then had a tilt at the Irish National on April 1st but was reportedly over the top. His run in the Troytown last November, when beaten just over 3l, has to be seen as a cracking seasonal debut. This competitive handicap looks ideal with that run under his belt.
22 January 2025
14:08 2:08 Catterick

Hobbs Delight

Daily Racing

200 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-200

Neil Mulholland's 9yo has shown enough in his 3 chase runs that a race of this nature is within his capabilities. He was narrowly touched off at Plumpton under today's pilot, then well beaten on unsuitable soft ground at Ffos Las before failing to land a punt at Wincanton. Dropped 2lb here, I can see connections getting back their losses. The cheekpieces are on for the 1st time, James Bowen travels up to Catterick for his only ride of the day, and the trainer has an impressive 32% strike rate here.
21 January 2025
14:53 2:53 Leicester

Camulus

Daily Racing

200 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 5.00 on 20/01 at 18:170.20 deduction for Percy Veering@5.00 withdrawn at 06:550.15 deduction for Shillanavogy @6.000 withdrawn at 07:51R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 4.00 x (1-0.35) = 3.60

@3.60

Win

520

Every time the Venetia Williams 8-year-old runs, it's well backed, so I can only assume connections feel it's better than a 95-rated chaser. He's shown enough in 2 of his 3 runs this season to think he'll be involved here. The one time he disappointed, he probably bounced (middle run of the three).
14:30 2:30 Ayr

Lady In The Park

Daily Racing

100 EWNB

@9.00

Lose

-200

Lucinda Russell's mare ran much better reverting back to hurdles after deciding fences are not for her. She runs off the same mark as when 2nd to Clondaw Royale then, and a reproduction of that run would see the 7yo go very close here.
20 January 2025
15:15 3:15 Warwick

Zero Tolerance

Daily Racing

100 EWNAP

@9.50

Lose

-200

I've had a late bet on this as I can't understand why Evan Williams' 8yo is such a big price. He may well have held on at Chepstow last November but for hitting the last, which was a shame as he'd jumped well up to then. The form looks okay as the 4th won at Fakenham yesterday and the 5th only got beat a short head next time out. I can see him getting a soft lead here and if Adam Wedge can get him into a rhythm like at Chepstow, he'll take some stopping. This is a perfect track for a front-runner with its tight turns and easy finish.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Warwick

Goddess Afrana

Daily Racing

100 EWNB

@17.00

Lose

-200

Bit of a shot in the dark with this 5-year-old mare of Nigel Hawkes. I think she'll be suited by the step-up in trip, judged by her two promising bumper runs last spring, both on deep ground. Whether this quicker surface is up her street is debatable, but the price has swayed me. Unfancied in her three hurdle runs, hopefully, she's been campaigned to get a mark and now makes her handicap debut.
19 January 2025
15:40 3:40 Windsor

Fortunate Man

Daily Racing

200 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-200

Jonjo's 6-year-old staying chaser seems to improve every time he steps up in trip. Normally, I would hesitate about backing a 6-year-old over 3m4f, but his trainer has such a good record with these types. I'm happy to be on.
14:45 2:45 Fakenham

Greyval

Daily Racing

100 EWNB

@8.50

Win

50

Fergal O'Brien's 6yo has paid for his consistency from a handicapping point of view but is unexposed at this extra half a mile. Decent ground is important & his trainer looks to have freshened him up. I can't believe he'll have any stamina problems around here.
18 January 2025
16:20 4:20 Taunton

A Little Something

Daily Racing

125 EWNB

@8.00

Lose

-250

Only beaten 2 lengths when 3rd over 2 miles at Hereford last month. Big price that day behind a well-fancied stablemate. I feel improvement is more or less guaranteed, especially with this step up in trip.
14:05 2:05 Taunton

Badbury Rings

Daily Racing

100 EWNAP

@5.50

Lose

-10

I think connections may have gone for a quiet touch over CD last month when 3rd on his handicap debut. He travelled well that day, and with improvement likely, rates a solid each-way bet.
17 January 2025
15:35 3:35 Windsor

Secret Squirrel

Daily Racing

150 EWNAP

@9.00

Win

1440

Looked booked for 3rd when falling at the last in the Ladbroke handicap hurdle at Ascot last month (a race in which we had the winner at 20/1). That was class 1, (this is class 2) and Hughie Morrison's 6-year-old deserves extra credit for being there at the finish, considering how hard they went. Nico de Boinville is an eye-catching booking seeing as he has a 29% strike rate for the trainer. I would imagine regular pilot David Bass would struggle to do 10-6.
15:00 3:00 Windsor

Nemean Lion

Daily Racing

200 WINNB

@7.00

Win

1200

Surprised that Kerry Lee's star hurdler is currently the outsider of 5 runners. He's notoriously fragile to train, so has to have some cut in the ground. But contrary to popular opinion, 4 of his 5 wins have been on good to soft rather than the deep ground he was thought to have needed. The current going combination of soft and good to soft should be perfect, and there's improvement to come at this trip.
13:15 1:15 Windsor

Herakles Westwood

Daily Racing

200 WINNOTETip made at odds of 5.00 on 17/01 at 07:280.20 deduction for Johnnywho@4.50 withdrawn at 10:09R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 4.00 x (1-0.20) = 4.20

@4.20

Win

640

The Warren Greatrex 8yo confirmed a promising chase debut at Taunton with an impressive win at Newbury a month ago, where you'd need the binoculars to see the 3rd. A three-time winner over hurdles, he's already a better chaser and looks a handicapper to follow.
14 January 2025
15:45 3:45 Plumpton

Kazontherazz

Daily Racing

125 EWNAP

@6.00

Void

0

Martin Keighley's 9yo looks well handicapped on his form from a year ago & his recent 3rd at Ludlow just under 4 weeks ago signals he's on his way back after 3 uninspiring runs over 3 miles. She often runs right handed but has plenty of form this way round & I think this is her optimum trip. There are plenty of question marks about the rest of this field & the booking of Sean Bowen must be seen as a plus.
12 January 2025
15:25 3:25 Punchestown

Beggars Rock

Daily Racing

100 EWNAP

@6.50

Lose

-200

Blinkers certainly made a difference to Declan Queally's 6-year-old when landing a punt in another 18-runner handicap at Limerick 15 days ago, spreadeagling the field to win by 13 lengths. A 10lb rise may not stop back-to-back wins for Beggars Rock, who is also entered up here on Monday. I feel connections are seeing how far he can go blinkered over hurdles before going chasing.

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