king2110
Doing this for a bit of fun and trying to find value to beat the bookies
0
Estimated Prizes
this month
£0
Estimated Prize money
this month
king2110's Tips History
All sports
25 October 2025
20:00 Brentford v Liverpool
Liverpool
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
Liverpool's head-to-head dominance versus Brentford, combined with their consistent scoring in this fixture, having scored in all of the last eight, gives them the statistical edge. Brentford's home form is mixed, and the model gives Liverpool the higher win probability.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.57
Win
28
Given the high goal per match averages from both sides, Brentford 2.9 and Liverpool 3.1, and head-to-head averages of 3.25 goals per match, the model projects a total above 2.5 goals. The attacking propensity of Liverpool and Brentford's willingness to play open at home drive this.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.55
Win
28
Liverpool have scored in every previous meeting with Brentford. Meanwhile, Brentford's home games and their average goal count of 2.9 goals per game indicate they can likely get on the score sheet even against the strong Liverpool side. Hence, both scoring appears likely.
17:30 Man Utd v Brighton
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Man Utd & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@3.25
Win
112
Man Utd (AH) -0.50
Asian Hcap
50 WIN
@1.98
Win
49
15:30 3:30 Cheltenham
Give It To Me Oj
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@1.57
Win
28
Hamlets Night
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 7.00 used instead of 6.00 takenBOG
@7.00
Win
12
15:00 Chelsea v Sunderland
Chelsea
50 WIN
@1.44
Lose
-50
Chelsea return to Stamford Bridge after a commanding 5-1 Champions League win and retain home advantage. Sunderland, despite a strong promotion season, are still adjusting and carry injury and suspension concerns. The model projects a significant probability of a home win given Chelsea's statistical superiority in goals scored/conceded.
Chelsea & No (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-50
The statistical profile and recent match history suggest that while Chelsea are likely to win, Sunderland's chance of scoring is modest. Recent BTTS (Both Teams to Score) no outcomes feature heavily in both clubs' home/away records.
Chelsea #1-0
50 WIN
@8.00
Lose
-50
Modeled goal means suggest a tighter margin than a high-scoring blowout. Correct score probabilities peak around one-nil based on the Poisson grid under these inputs.
15:00 Newcastle v Fulham
Newcastle
50 WIN
@1.62
Win
31
Historically, Newcastle have a stronger record versus Fulham with about six wins in the last 10 meetings. Fulham's away form is weak. They average very few points in away league matches, and Newcastle at home tend to be more dominant. The model, therefore, gives Newcastle the highest probability of victory.
Under 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
The average goals in head-to-head between these two sides is 2.24 per match. Additionally, Newcastle's recent home matches show a trend toward tighter scorelines, and Fulham's away matches tend to have lower totals. Given this, the model projects total goals slightly below 2.5, making the under 2.5 a preferred selection.
No (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
The head-to-head shows BTTS has occurred in only 36% of past meetings between these two sides. That suggests the probability that one side fails to score is higher than BTTS happening. Combined with Fulham's weaker away offensive output, the 'No' selection has good value.
12:30 Coventry v Watford
Coventry
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
Coventry's top six home efficiency and Watford ranked last away creates a strong imbalance. Even factoring injuries, Coventry's process strength remains compelling, and home advantage in the Championship is highly predictive.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
Even if the game is more controlled or lower scoring than expected, BTTS hits in many of the model pathways.
Coventry & Yes (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@3.10
Win
105
Watford still average 1.54 XG, meaning their attack travels. Coventry concedes 1.17 XGA per game, not airtight. This selection catches both the likely winner and the high probability of both scoring.
Subtotal184
19 October 2025
12:00 European Tour 14
Gerwyn Price
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Price tops the model for sustained scoring efficiency and stage performance. His consistency in early rounds and superior checkout rate give him the best win projection.
Josh Rock
25 EW
@8.00
Lose
-50
Rock's recent surge in doubling accuracy and high-scoring power makes him ideal for each way angle. Strong probability to reach the final stages.
Subtotal-100
18 October 2025
20:30 8:30 Wolverhampton
Bintalina
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.50
Lose
-50
Progressive three-year-old profile from Varian yard. Upward RPR trajectory and well-suited draw for tracking tempo. Each way value despite short odds.
Telepathic
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.50
Lose
-50
Consistent speed ratings on standard surfaces. Tactical gate in stall Nine suits hold up runners tonight. Recent figures suggest untapped late race acceleration potential.
17:55 5:55 Newton Abbot
Great Dance
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 4.50 on 18/10 at 15:140.30 deduction for Soldier Reeves@2.88 withdrawn at 17:13R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 3.50 x (1-0.30) = 3.45
@3.45
Win
122
Chester Williams' yard performs consistently well in bumpers, and this gelding's work at home indicates sharpness on debut. The sectional projections rate him close to Soldier Reeves on stamina profile, with extra value from the slightly bigger price. Model outputs also value weight advantage - 7lbs and likely race positioning mid-pack with a late closing kick.
Soldier Reeves
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@3.00
Void
0
Dan Skelton's record with bumper runners at Newton Abbot is over a 30% strike rate. This combines strongly with the horse's debut second, where he traveled well and shaped like a natural improver. Ground conditions suit, and a small field enhances tactical control under Tristan Darrell's claim. The model flags a superior finishing speed index of +6% relative to rivals' projections.
17:30 Fulham v Arsenal
Arsenal
50 WIN
@1.55
Win
28
Arsenal's xG differential away from home is +1.2 on average, and their structural superiority in transitions strongly outweighs Fulham's defensive data. Fulham concedes most chances from wide overloads, which is Arsenal's main creation channel.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Arsenal averages 2.3 goals per away match. Fulham's home XG against is 1.6. Expect Arsenal to force the tempo with potential late scoring spread from substitutes.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
Fulham have scored in nine of their last 10 at Craven Cottage, and Arsenal often allow a consolation goal when the game state is secure.
17:25 5:25 Newton Abbot
Jaitroplaclasse
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.62
Lose
-50
Model flags form stability +9% and jumping efficiency +6% as key strengths. Solid 4-2451 form line with recent win at Ffos Las on similar going. The Llewellyn yard shows a +27% strike rate with horses reappearing within 30 days. Pace projection data suggests he controls the race tempo from the front. A strong profile for this small field chase.
Siam Park
Daily Racing
25 EW
@4.33
Lose
-50
Progressive since joining Joe Tizzard, posting speed ratings +4lbs clear of standard for this grade. 2nd on Chase debut shows he adapts well to fences. model highlights distance suitability +7%, and track shape matches with Newton Abbots tighter turns. slight stamina edge could bring him into contention if leader fades.
16:30 Raphael Collignon vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Felix Auger Aliassime
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Oh dear Ali seems elite serve metrics superior indoor win rate and higher opponent quality faced make him strongly favoured. Colon lacks consistent break potential or composure under pressure.
Felix Auger Aliassime to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@2.10
Win
55
The model projects straight sets with a 63% probability due to Collignon's low tiebreak conversion and poor second serve resilience versus top 50 caliber players.
Under 23.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.77
Win
38
One-sided expectation with quicker holds and limited return breaks. The model predicts 20.1 mean games and only a 31% chance of 24 or more.
15:00 Brighton v Newcastle
Newcastle
50 WIN
@2.63
Lose
-50
Newcastle's defensive efficiency XGA is 1.41, and their aerial advantage from set pieces yields a small neck XG edge. Brighton's defensive transition is remaining consistent. If Newcastle maintains press cohesion, the late match conversion probability rises sharply.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.85
Win
43
The model projects 3.1 total XG with Newcastle's direct attack offsetting Brighton's expansive shape. When Brighton faces top-half teams, their average goals per match rise to 3.6. Momentum metrics, PPDA, shot value, and recovery speed suggest continued end-to-end exchanges, favoring an open game.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.67
Win
34
Both sides average over 1.5 XG in play across their last five matches. Each concedes high-value chances when pressed in midfield transitions. The model flags a 2.9 mean expected goals total, with both scoring scenarios winning in seven of their combined last 10 fixtures.
15:00 Coventry v Blackburn
Coventry
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
Coventry's home xG differential is among the league's best, while Blackburn concede high-quality chances away. Coventry's pressing and set-piece threat project sustained territorial dominance and a narrow but deserved home win.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.67
Lose
-50
Blackburn's away matches are high event due to defensive volatility and transition speed. Coventry creates volume at home, and game state modeling anticipates open phases after the first goal, pushing totals past 2.5.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
Blackburn's counter strengths generate quality looks even when outplayed, and Coventry often concede a handful of big chances. The model expects Coventry to win while still allowing sufficient opportunities for an away goal.
15:00 Man City v Everton
Man City
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Man City are dominating possession metrics and home XG averages this season. Everton struggle badly against elite pressing teams, especially away. City's quality, edge, squad depth, and tactical control suggest a high probability of a home win, supported by consistent underlying data and model confidence above 75%.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.73
Lose
-50
The expected total goals model predicts 3.3 XG across both sides, primarily driven by City's home attacking rhythm and high X threat buildup. City's last six home matches have each cleared this total, while Everton's defensive metrics trend toward fatigue beyond 60 minutes. This supports a strong over projection with secondary support from the shot volume model. Combined, 27.8 shots are expected.
Man City & No (Result + BTTS)
Result and BTTS
50 WIN
@2.25
Win
62
Everton's away scoring likelihood drops to 38% against teams with over 65% average possession. A trend amplified by City's 0.6 clean sheets per game. The model's defensive pressure index shows City suppressing opposition XG to below 0.7 at home, giving a clear defensive edge. This pick benefits from both control and efficiency, ideal when City are expected to dictate tempo from start to finish.
13:30 1:30 Ascot
Division
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.00
Lose
-50
W Haggis's colt improved across three runs, winning twice on soft ground and adapting well. Likely to track the pace and benefit from fitness. A valuable alternative if the favorite underperforms, with a solid place probability of 48%.
Words Of Truth
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-50
Charlie Appleby's juvenile has clocked the highest speed figure per Racing Post standard and shows rapid closing sectionals. The trainer has got a two-year-old strike rate of 34%, and Buick's tactical efficiency in small fields makes this the statistical standout.
12:55 12:55 Ascot
Stay True
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.00
Lose
-50
Improving three-year-old from O'Brien's yard with upside in stamina tests. Closing sectionals at Curragh suggest potential to challenge for minor honours if pace holds steady. Represents value as second likely finisher behind the favourite.
Trawlerman
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 1.83 used instead of 1.50 takenBOG
@1.83
Win
41
Proven group performer with a strong staying profile and top Ascot record. William Buick and John and Thady Gosden combine at a 29% win rate over 1 mile 6 furlongs. Plus, Ascot conditions suit ideally. Expected to control tempo and sustain a strong final 3 furlong split.
12:30 Nottm Forest v Chelsea
Chelsea
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
Chelsea are trending upward under Maresca with 2.05 XG per match across the last six fixtures and a +0.8 XGD away. Forest's defensive line remains vulnerable, especially against teams using high rotation between the half spaces, a Chelsea strength. The model assigned Chelsea a 64% win probability versus Forest's 14%, creating a strong alignment of outcome and underlying metrics.
Over 2.50
Total Goals
50 WIN
@1.73
Win
37
Both sides' recent match data point to higher variance and open games. Chelsea's last five away fixtures have averaged 3.4 total goals, and Forest's average home xG conceded of 1.8 suggests they'll leak chances again. The expected combined total goals model projection of 3.1 makes this a statistically efficient selection for value and entertainment potential.
Yes (BTTS)
Both Teams to Score
50 WIN
@1.65
Lose
-50
Despite Chelsea's expected dominance, Forest have scored in five of their last six home games. Chelsea's defense, while improving, still concedes quality chances on transitions for speed in wide areas. Elanga, Hudson- fits that weakness model. BTTS probability is 52%, making this a value-driven secondary pick that complements the over goal projection.
11:00 James Duckworth vs Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.20
Win
10
Medvedev's superior baseline consistency and elite hard-court return game give him a dominant edge. Duckworth struggles against top 20 opponents on medium-paced surfaces.
Daniil Medvedev to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@1.64
Lose
-50
Medvedev's serve-hold rate exceeds 90% indoors, while Duckworth's second serves are often exposed. Early outcome expected if Medvedev maintains first serve rhythm.
Under 21.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
Projected score lines cluster around 6-3, 6-4, 19 games or 6-4, 6-4, 20. Only a tiebreak or third set beats 21.5, both low-frequency scenarios.
10:30 New Zealand W vs Pakistan W World Cup
New Zealand W
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.36
Void
0
New Zealand hold a clear edge in batting depth and strike rotation. Their top four average nearly 80 runs per match collectively in recent ODIs compared with Pakistan's 46. The scene bowling trio match up well against Pakistan's right-hand heavy lineup.
AC Kerr
Man Of The Match
50 WIN
@6.50
Void
0
A genuine dual threat leads New Zealand's wicket charts and sits in their top three run scorers over the last 12 months. On a slow pitch with grip, her leg-spin and composure at number four make her the most likely game changer.
SW Bates (New Zealand W)
Top Team1 Batsman
50 WIN
@5.00
Void
0
The model favors Bates' power play stability, and average of 41.2 versus Pakistan, along with superior scoring tempo, provide consistent returns in similar matchups. She ranked highest in individual top score probability at 31%.
01:38 MIL Brewers @ LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers
Money Line
50 WIN
@1.50
Win
25
The model projects a Dodgers edge from superior bullpen run prevention, deeper lineup platoon options, late-inning leverage performance at Dodger Stadium. Seattle-like run suppression and strong hard contact control at home elevate LA's consistency, making the straight win the most probable and cleanest outcome.
Under 7.50
Game Totals
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
Night conditions at Dodger Stadium modestly dampen home runs, and both staffs' strikeout profiles versus right-handed lineups trim run expectancy with solid bullpen xERA and average launch angle suppression. The simulation leans slightly under the 7.5 line unless there's unexpected pitcher volatility or heavy early bullpen usage.
Subtotal-146
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
