bledge
1
Estimated Prizes
this month
£5
Estimated Prize money
this month
bledge's Tips History
26 April 2024
15:00 3:00 Sandown
Nostrum
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-50
Only 4 of the last 11 winners had a run this season. 5/11 had a previous run at Sandown. 4/11 where fav and 10/11 where top 3 in the betting. Beat Arrest on debut who has since won 2 G3s and placed 2nd in the Ledger. Ran quite well as a 2yo when beating a Royal Ascot winner before finishing 2.5L behind 2kGuineas winner Chaldean. Looked better on reappearance as a 3yo when easily winning a Listed race before being beaten 1L by Epictetus in ground to Soft. Ryan said after that he felt like he had a puncture in the last 100 yards. James Savage (assistant trainer) described him as a "very, very smart horse". Finished lame last start of the season. Likely to imrove again as a 4yo and should be able to pick what looks like a weak G2 up to start his season with Lord North probably past his best and dropping back to a mile for the first time since 2019 and Charyn albeit looking better on his seasonal debut that was only a Listed race and in his favoured Soft ground. Stoute has a 22% win rate with 4yo here at profit of +43.56.
13:50 1:50 Sandown
Cogitate
Daily Racing
25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@5.50
Void
0
Looked potentially smart on debut when running keen before easily beating Boiling Point by 2L. That horse has since been beaten a shoulder in a G3 and was 1L 2nd in a decent looking conditions race at Newmarket last week. Cogitate was then beaten 4L in the G3 Acomb at the Ebor meet at York. I actually fancied it that day however sweated up before hand then once again ran keen and hung left. Was 2nd on seasonal debut this season to Night Raider who beat him 5L but looks to be a Group horse in the making. Cogitate beat the 3rd by 14L where he looked much more the finished article compared to last season. Charles Hills has a record of 1 win and 2 places in this race out of 5 runners. Likely to improve for the step up to a mile on breeding and as to be value at 5s ew.
Subtotal-50
23 April 2024
14:45 2:45 Epsom Downs
Defiance
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
Looked decent on debut when winning over 1m Good to Soft. The 2nd in that has since won gamely and the 3rd won by 4L on Monday at Windsor and was only beaten 2.75L in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster in October. Defiance also ran 6th (beaten 4L by Ghostwriter) in the G2 Royal Lodge which also looks pretty solid form. Likely to improve over 1m2f based on breeding. O'briens Chief Little Rock looks the main danger, however has had quite a few beat at short prices since the start of the season and appears to be sussing his runners out at the moment (this is one without an entry in the Derby).
Subtotal-50
20 April 2024
15:35 3:35 Ayr
Inis Oirr
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
5/11 previous winners where top 3 in the market. 10/11 carried 10st to 11st3. Presumably saved for this since 21L win last time out. Venetia knows what shes doing with these types of chasers and will likely improve again. 7 places available with Sky.
14:40 2:40 Newbury
Zoum Zoum
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.00
Lose
-5
5/11 last winners where fav. 8/11 top 3 in the betting. Won comfy last time out in a French Listed race by 1.25L. Looks a fairly weak race to me and if trained on looks the winner.
Subtotal-55
18 April 2024
13:50 1:50 Newmarket
North View
Daily Racing
25 EW
@9.00
Lose
-50
Won comfortably last time out by 1.75L where Jane Chapple-Hyam spoke very highly of him. Beaten .75L 2nd the time before. The winner of that won here on Tuesday. Was supposed to run in the G3 Horris Hill Stakes here last November but scoped wrong so they obviously think he is better than a handicaper. Only carrying 8st11 and with everywhere paying 5 places ew looks a solid bet.
1 member found this comment useful
Woodhay Wonder
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@13.00
Win
600
Great record at Newmarket winning 3/4. Only loss was in the G2 Duchess of Cambridge on the July course by 5.25L where she hit a flat spot and went left before keeping on. Won last time out on this course by 4L. Was quoted after that as "not just a 2 year old" and "definitely a filly for next year". The G3 Fred Darling at Newbury was supposed to be her start of season target but for whatever reason has come here. Possibly due to ground being more to her liking. Possible Group horse in a handicap and looks a fair bet ew at the price with everywhere paying 5. Marquand onboard.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal550
17 April 2024
15:35 3:35 Newmarket
True Cyan
Daily Racing
25 EW
@11.00
Lose
-50
4/11 last winners where fav. 7/11 where top 3 in the betting. 8/11 where either in the first 4 or last 4 stalls. 8/11 winners had a previous run here with 5 having won. Comes here a 1.5L CD winner after winning a 17 runner maiden last season, the 2nd and 3rd in that have since won. Varian talked of running her in the Oh So Sharp stakes(G3) after that so they obviously thought alot of her. Downside would be that she has only ran the once but it was an impressive debut thats since worked out well and at the price is a solid ew bet. James Doyle onboard a +.
15:00 3:00 Newmarket
Ottoman Fleet
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 4.50 on 16/04 at 17:270.20 deduction for Royal Rhyme@5.00 withdrawn at 09:01R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 3.50 x (1-0.20) = 3.80
@3.80
Win
140
4/11 winners where fav. 7/11 last winners of this where top 3 in the betting. 11/11 had a previous run at Newmarket. 6/11 had a previous win here. Ottoman Fleet won this race last year by 2l comfy after having a very similar prep to this year (runs at Meydan) where he has placed in both a G1 and G2. Last run can be wrote of after running flat and Appelby has won this race the prior 2 years. Can pick this up again this year on his return to the UK. 6/1 was availble earlier in the week so would be an ew bet if it gets to around that price again.
Subtotal90
13 April 2024
16:00 4:00 Aintree
Kittys Light
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@13.00
Lose
-50
Winner of the Scottish National and the Sandown Gold Cup last season. Not been as good this season but comes alive at this time of year and Christian Williams has certainly been talking his chances up. Proven over the trip however ground is a question mark. Been aimed here all season and can surely run a big race carrying 10st 7. Part of the bet is a heart over head job but i feel as though thats partly what you need in the national and although it goes against everything id normally say in regards to a bet i can see him running a massive race. Has to be a solid ew for 6 places possible 7/8 with sky.
2 members found this comment useful
Mr Incredible
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
2/11 last winners where favs/ joint favs. 3/11 where in the top 3 in the betting. 8/11 where 11/1 or bigger. 9/11 carried between 10st3 and 11st5. 8/11 had previous run here. The stats cleary favour backing at a bigger price. Beaten 1 3/4L in the Midlands national last time out carrying top weight in heavy. Was running a good race in this last year when saddle slipped at the canal turn. Clearly aimed at coming back here and after running a big race last time surely has had a perfect prep for this. Dont see more than 10 even completing with the ground as it currently is and this lad is proven over 4 miles in it. A very solid Ew bet.
2 members found this comment useful
Subtotal-100
12 April 2024
15:30 3:30 Aintree
Jonbon
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.50
Win
125
6/11 favs have won. 10/11 where top 3 in the betting. 10/11 had a previous run here. Nickys stable tour interview suggest they think Jonbon will be even better up in trip. Made a mess of it last time out but did well in the cicumstance to finish 1/2L 2nd and i think that run can be wrote off with the race being rescheduled/ shaky prep. Would likely have won the Champion Chase this year, had he ran, with El Fabiolo making his mistake which would have seen him much shorter than 5/2 for this. Best horse in the race and if he runs his race he wins. Wouldnt suprise me to see him much shorter if Hendersons horses fire on thursday.
1 member found this comment useful
14:55 2:55 Aintree
Dysart Enos
Daily Racing
25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@5.50
Void
0
The Supreme was ran in the slowest time this century by "some margin" although the ground was the worst its been since 2016. I couldnt be taking the 2nd or 3rd from that on the nose, after battling in bad ground, in this although the stats show 8/11 winners of this came from the Supreme. 7/11 winners came from the top 3 in the betting. Dysart Enos has won here, won over the D and is in receipt of 7lbs from the front 2 in the betting. Beat Golden Ace 9 L eased down here in the grade 2 bumper last year. Golden Ace has since won the Ryanair Mares Novice at Cheltenham which you could assume Dysart Enos would have won had she ran. Doubt ground will be an issue. Comes here fresh and unbeaten over hurdles. Cannot see her being out of the first 3 places.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal125
11 April 2024
14:55 2:55 Aintree
Shishkin
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
Won this last year. Best horse in the race if in form after scoping badly/ not running at Cheltenham. 8 of the last 11 winners where in the top 3 in the betting. 6 of 11 had a win at Aintree already. The trends do favour horses coming from the Gold Cup however only one of the last 6 winners that have come from the gold cup had placed there and had won. We all know a Gold Cup can leave a mark on a horse, especially one in heavy ground and at the prices it looks to me as if there is quite substantial value at 3s as opposed to Gerri at EVS knowing that Henderson will be on a redemption mission and wouldnt be running his stars here if they where still not sound.
13:45 1:45 Aintree
Ginnys Destiny
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-50
1 of the last 11 winners was fav whereas 9 where in the top 3 in the betting. of the last 11 winners had won last time out. 8/11 had a previous run at aintree. With Ginnys Destiny and Grey Dawning being so closely matched on previous form id be siding with the selection at 10/3. 4/1 3places was available antepost so have taken that myself but wouldnt oppose a small win bet to follow quite a clear trend of favs getting beat here. In regards to Il etait Temps i cant help feel as though he has been sent here to pick up whatever prize money he can as an afterthought. Mullins rarely sends his top horses here.
Subtotal-100
09 April 2024
13:30 1:30 Deauville
Romantic Style
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.50
Win
203
Won Newmarket Listed race on Heavy over 6f. Looked as though 7f would be fine. The 2nd from that has since won comfortably in a handicap and was beaten 2.25L in another Listed race. Sky paying 3 places ew.
Subtotal203
07 April 2024
14:55 2:55 Leopardstown
Buttons
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@5.00
Lose
-5
7 of the last 12 winners have been top 3 in the market. Won on debut over CD in June when Obrien reffered to her as "too babyish" and she looked as though further would suit which may help her outstay these in Heavy. Ryan onboard which is interesting considering they have a more experienced runner in this with Cherry Blossom. 6/12 last winners had run at leapordstown previously so Course form is a plus. Form boosted by Content who has since won a G3 when beating Kitty Rose 2 .5L.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-5
06 April 2024
15:30 3:30 Chelmsford City
Capulet
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-50
Good runs in G2s the last twice. 51k to the winner and a win and your in for the Kentucky Derby so interesting that obrien sends one over for this with Ryan onboard. 7lb clear on offical ratings. Cant help but think theres still some value at the price.
Subtotal-50
01 April 2024
17:00 5:00 Fairyhouse
Intense Raffles
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@8.00
Win
210
Beat Where It All Began 4 1/2L comfortably over C in January who then went on to win the Punchestown national trial and place 4th in the Kim Muir. Won 43L eased down nect time out. Ground wont be an issue. Thomas Gibney has a record of 1 place and 1 winner from 5 runners in this race. +29 on win and 16.63 ew. JJ Slevin has a record of 1 win and 2 places out of 5 in this race - +16 win and 12.13ew. Nick Rocket is potentially the class horse in the race however no horse in the last 20 runnings has won with so little experience and and at 4/1 carrying 11st10 in heavy ground i couldnt back it.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal210
30 March 2024
15:10 3:10 Meydan
Lord North
Daily Racing
25 EW
@9.00
Lose
-50
Won this 3 times. Frankie back on board. Age may be an issue but i'll take my chance at the price ew.
13:50 1:50 Meydan
Henry Adams
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
Dirt should suit fine. Strong connections. Grandson of Scat Daddy who's son won this in 2018 for o'brien. Should be value ew
Subtotal-100
29 March 2024
15:35 3:35 Newcastle
Cover Up
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.50
Lose
-50
Won nicely lto here over 5f by 3l eased down. Has already won over 6. Gosden has a 23% record with 4y/o at the track . 7 of the last 9 winners ran at the track previously so Course form is clearly relevant and 3/9 favs have won. Got to be value just on the stats before taking into account the horse could well still be improving and is potentiolly a listed performer.
13:53 1:53 Newcastle
Spartan Army
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Beat a couple of these lto at lingfield where he battled well to keep the lead. 7 of the last 9 winners came from stall 8 or lower. 8/9 last winners where 8/1 or smaller and 3/9 where fav or joint fav. Some bookmakers where paying 4/1 1/4 3 places antepost so under those terms would be an ew bet.
Subtotal-100
23 March 2024
15:35 3:35 Doncaster
Vetiver
Daily Racing
25 EW
@21.00
Lose
-50
Ran some decent races in group company last season including Listed win on Soft. 3rd in a G3 here over 7f. Unexposed, only 4 and likely to improve. Rated around most previous winners. A filly hasn't won in the last 20 runnings however, 8/11 last winners where priced 12/1 or bigger and at the price 6 places EW ill take my chances.
Subtotal-50
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
