Morse Code

I simply can't believe the odds of NATURAL HISTORY. Here we have an entire colt by Maxfield who won multiple Group 1 races throughout his career. His dam was unraced but looks to bring a speed profile to the breeding. He ought to be up to winning this race, especially given his €1m price tag. That's even before we speak of Charlie Appleby's 25% strike rate in the last fortnight, his incredible 45.45% strike rate at Kempton in 2025, the 27.78% SR when James Doyle rides for him, the incredible 38.98% strike rate with his 2-year-olds in 2025, his 25% SR in races over today's trip, and Charlie's 36.84% SR in class 4 events! I'm siding with this colt over the favorite. Huge player in this!

It's not often I'll go against a Willie Mullins contender, but I'm more than happy to do so with this horse. He's ultra-consistent and wouldn't have to improve on previous efforts to land the race. HMS SEAHORSE for the win here.

SANAAM looks to be the answer to this 2-year-old puzzle. Simon Crisford's yard has been flying of late (31.82% strike rate on turf) and has a 34.92% strike rate with his 2-year-olds in 2025. Today's jockey has ridden twice for Crisford and won once and been placed once, so that's another strong pointer. This horse is well-related and cost a whopping 550,000 guineas. Although this horse doesn't hold any fancy entries, it's likely he's going to be running at a much higher level fairly soon. Got a great draw and looks to hold most of the aces, despite the favourite.

I've always said follow the sire Territories in a sprint, and I'm not going to deviate from that in this race either. Yes, the favorites will be popular, BUT I don't believe that in this race favoritism has been decided by anything other than cost. This Territories filly was out of a filly by New Approach, and so was Massetto (also by Territories by a mare whose sire was New Approach), was rated 103 over 5-6f trips! That is borderline group class, and I don't think that level of ability will be needed to win this. Of all of the age groups Eve Johnson-Houghton trains, it's her 2-year-olds that have the best strike rate, which is also encouraging. I'm going to advise small stakes EW.

WARHOLM has pretty decent breeding and has a decent trainer who does pretty well with his runners at Deauville. He has got to have a squeak here, especially as his trainer has kept him in the race against horses with more experience.

It looks like Johnny Murtagh could have a good horse on his hands here in the shape of Zuheila. This race looks to have some decent rivals in it, but I'm confident this daughter of Blue Point can back up her debut win with another good performance and hopefully a win.

HEADMASTER gets my vote in this one. This son of Dubawi has acquitted himself well so far in his career and is so lightly raced he's impossible to ignore. I averaged the stats of the last 20 winners of this race, and his draw, weight, and odds all match up well. Big run expected with improvement almost assured.

I've compared the results of the last 20 years to come up with average stats of the winners, and for me, this horse matches up to those best. He'll be ridden in the midfield and should have a decent opportunity for a late run as it looks likely there will be an honest pace. I'd be looking for SUBSEQUENT to get a place at least here.