Tepzepi
Avid NFL fan who started sports betting to make it even more exciting. Got into more sports because of the long off season. Love doing the research and trying to find an edge.
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Tepzepi's Tips History
21 October 2024
01:20 NY Jets @ PIT Steelers
NY Jets -1.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
I think this line would be correct with Justin Fields under center, but he got benched for Russell Wilson. The Jets' defense is great at putting pressure on the QB and weak against the run. With the static Russell Wilson in the pocket, the Jets should get some sacks, especially with James Daniels and Zach Frazier out. TJ Watt can obviously wreck a game, but with Morgan Moses back and the Jets adding Davante Adams to the mix, I think Rodgers will get the ball out lightning quick. TJ might possibly be the only outside rusher creating pressure with Nate Herbig and Alex Highsmith out.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
20 October 2024
18:00 DET Lions @ MIN Vikings
DET Lions 1.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
The main reason why the Vikings are undefeated is their number 1 defense. The reason why they are elite is Brian Flores' scheme that's focused on a lot of exotic blitzes. I think the Lions can withstand that with their elite O-line and Jared Goff, who has been tremendous versus the blitz this year. With Aidan Hutchinson out for the year, the Lions will have great difficulty putting pressure on Sam Darnold. He will be operating from a clean pocket against Detroit's weak secondary. He won't be able to rely on the run, though, as Detroit's run D is stout. I think this one will be a shootout where I will back the better QB with the 1.5 in my back pocket.
1 member found this comment useful
18:00 PHI Eagles @ NY Giants
PHI Eagles -3.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.87
Win
44
The main matchups in this game are how the Eagles' O-line will do against the Giants' pass rush without Jordan Mailata and how the return of Malik Nabers will enable the Giants to exploit Philly's weak secondary. Mailata might be missing, but Philly has recovered their all-world RT, Lane Johnson. I think Kellen Moore will run the ball behind him and let Jalen Hurts roll out to the right side. Malik Nabers is obviously a game-changer, but the Giants are without Andrew Thomas, which is an enormous blow for their pass protection. I think Danny Dimes will be running for his life, not getting the ball out in time. Everything above 3 was a stay away for me, but with Lane Johnson, AJ Brown, and Devonta Smith looking healthy last week and Andrew Thomas out, I think we're getting value at -3. Before I forget: Saquon Barkley revenge game!
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal90
14 October 2024
01:20 CIN Bengals @ NY Giants
NY Giants 3.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
The Giants are without Malik Nabers, but they showed last week that they can move the ball without him. Cincy's defense is one of the worst units in the NFL. Their biggest strength is obviously their passing offense, with Joe Burrow finding his receivers pretty easily. However, I do think the Giants match up pretty well with a great pass rush that puts pressure on the QB. The Giants are a live dog here, but I gladly take the hook.
Subtotal-50
13 October 2024
21:25 DET Lions @ DAL Cowboys
DAL Cowboys 3.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
The Cowboys have plenty of injuries, but they still have a great passing offense that should be able to put points on the board against a bad secondary that likes to play man. Dak loves playing against man coverage. This should be closer to a pick 'em.
21:05 LA Chargers @ DEN Broncos
DEN Broncos 2.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
I think the Chargers are overrated here. They are coming off a bye, but that doesn't mean their injury woes are over. Joey Bosa is inactive for this game. Herbert and Slater are not 100%. This Broncos defense is the real deal. It's hard to run on them, and their secondary should outclass the Chargers' weak receiving group. This should be a low-scoring affair where a 2.5 head start at home seems like value. Sean Payton is around 65% ATS as a dog.
18:00 HOU Texans @ NE Patriots
NE Patriots 6.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.95
Lose
-50
CJ is only 4-5 on the road, which is a huge difference from his home record (9-2). Today, he is without his favorite target, Nico Collins, who has been on the receiving end of 1/3 of CJ's career passing yards. The Texans are 1-4 ATS and haven't been able to win a game by more than 6 points. The Patriots' defense has been keeping opponent scoring to a minimum, while the offense should get a boost by the mobility of new starting QB, Drake Maye. I expect maximum effort from this Patriots team as the locker room has been demanding for Brissett to be benched and Maye to get the nod.
1 member found this comment useful
18:00 TB Buccaneers @ NO Saints
NO Saints 3.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.90
Lose
-50
Before Derek Carr got injured, this spread was -2.5 in favor of the Saints. Carr is a mediocre QB who is not worth 6 points. I like a lot of trends here that I usually follow: fading a team that went from underdog to favorite, backing a divisional home underdog, and betting on a backup QB who doesn't have any tape in his first start. If you look at the matchup, you've got Lattimore, who is always elite versus Evans. The Bucs are not able to stop the run like they used to, and they still have issues in the secondary. Against the Falcons, they gave up 500 passing yards.
1 member found this comment useful
18:00 WAS Commanders @ BAL Ravens
WAS Commanders 6.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
I see two ways for the Commanders to cover here. Either they will keep up in a shootout, or they will backdoor in a late comeback. The Ravens are known for giving up big leads. This season, it happened against the Cowboys and the Raiders. Lamar, as a favorite of over a FG, is 10-21 ATS. The Ravens haven't been able to defend the pass all season long, so I think Jayden Daniels and his receivers can light up the scoreboard.
Subtotal-250
08 October 2024
01:15 NO Saints @ KC Chiefs
NO Saints 5.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
I think we're getting about 2 points of value on the Saints here. The Chiefs are weak versus the run, while the Saints have been really impressive in the games where they could establish their running game and let Derek Carr throw only 15-20 times, mostly on play action. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are without their number 1 wide receiver, Rashee Rice, and number 1 back, Isiah Pacheco. I don't think the Chiefs will be explosive on offense, which will allow the Saints to keep up.
Subtotal-50
07 October 2024
01:20 DAL Cowboys @ PIT Steelers
PIT Steelers -2.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.87
Lose
-50
This is a terrible matchup for the Cowboys. They are weak versus the run, which the Steelers and Arthur Smith want to do. Even if Dallas loads up the box to prevent that, I think Justin Fields will be able to pass the ball since both Parsons and Lawrence are out. Pickens 1v1 is his go-to play. Then you get T.J. Watt versus a rookie left tackle in a game where everything will be on Dak's shoulders again since Dallas can't run the ball. Tomlin off a loss at home in a prime time game under a field goal is also a spot I love.
Subtotal-50
06 October 2024
18:00 BUF Bills @ HOU Texans
HOU Texans -1.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
Normally, I don't back favorites who started as underdogs when the line came out, but I think the Texans are still undervalued here as they match up well with the Bills. The Bills want to establish the run and get an early lead. The Texans have one of the better run defenses in football. The Bills are very vulnerable over the middle on defense as they are dealing with multiple injuries at linebacker and safety. Nico Collins should be able to feast once again. The only thing I was worried about is the Houston run game. Joe Mixon is a game-time decision, and Cam Akers is a major drop-off. But with Ed Oliver out for this game, I feel a lot better about that. CJ is a beast at home with an 8-2 record and a 20-4 TD-INT ratio. Cherry on top: Stefon Diggs' revenge game.
18:00 CAR Panthers @ CHI Bears
CAR Panthers 4.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
I think the Panthers match up well against the Bears. They are really bad against the run, especially since Derrick Brown got injured. However, the Bears haven't been able to run the ball effectively, forcing poor Caleb Williams to throw the ball 40 times a game. The Panthers have trouble creating pressure, but the Bears' O-line has been a dumpster fire all season long. The Panthers' offense has been humming since the Red Rifle took over under center. The Bears' defense has been great so far, but their whole plan is creating pressure on the QB and being opportunistic in the secondary. That will be difficult against one of the best pass-blocking units in the league. The Panthers should be able to keep this one close.
18:00 IND Colts @ JAX Jaguars
JAX Jaguars -3.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Push
0
At home the Jags have both won and covered 8 times in a row vs Indy. -3 is not an ideal number but I still think there's value with Jonathan Taylor being out for the Colts. Without him in the line up I don't see Indy creating much on the ground against the Jags who are stout against the run. Joe Flacco Will probably start for Indy which is an upgrade over Richardson in this situation. But without any semblance of a ground attack he will be in a lot of obvious passing situations and drop back 40 or 50 times. He turns the ball over a lot so I see the Jags forcing INT's. On the other side of the ball I don't see Indy stopping the Jags without Buckner, Moore, Brents, Paye and some other pieces. The Jags should get the running game going to ease the pressure on Trevor Lawrence. The Jags might be 0-4 but they were very competitive against Miami with Tua,the Browns with a healthy O-line and the Texans on the road. I don't see thema losing at home.
Subtotal-3
30 September 2024
01:20 BUF Bills @ BAL Ravens
BAL Ravens -2.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
This is a spot where you blindly take the Ravens. Lamar is 23-7 ATS as a favourite of 3 or less. Josh Allen might single handedly win me my fantasy league but we have to put his opponents in perspective. The Bills didn't cover vs the Cardinals, beat the Dolphins who lost Tua in that game and blew out the Jags who are completely lost. I'm selling the Bills here at their highest and buying the Ravens for the second week in a row because they could have easily been 3-0. Which would have made this spread probably -3 or -3,5.
Subtotal46
29 September 2024
18:00 DEN Broncos @ NY Jets
DEN Broncos 8.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
The spread and game total suggest that the Jets defense will keep the Broncos offense to 10 points max and that Rodgers will march up and down the field. I disagree on both. The Jets defense is not the elite unit they were last season. They have lost a lot of juice on their D-line with JFM and Huff leaving while Jermaine Johnson is out for the season. Rodgers main weapon in Garrett Wilson will face a hard time against Pat Surtain. His next options are way worse.
18:00 MIN Vikings @ GB Packers
MIN Vikings 2.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
I think Jordan Love is rushed into this game because it is a hugely important divisional match up. He will have great difficulties against Brian Flores scheme as it is but it will be even harder when he proces not to be mobile enough.
18:00 NO Saints @ ATL Falcons
ATL Falcons -2.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.90
Lose
-50
The Saints offensive scheme got them 2 impressive wins in the first 2 weeks but Eric McCoy who is a huge part of their run blocking scheme is out. Alvin Kamara is banged up top. If the Saints can't get the running game going their play action game will suffer too which will result in Derek Carr throwing the ball often against the Falcons elite secondary. This should be a recipe for disaster. Kirk Cousins looked good the past 2 weeks with his plethora of weapons. I think the Falcons should be able to outscore the Saints despite having injury woes on their O-line.
18:00 PHI Eagles @ TB Buccaneers
TB Buccaneers 1.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
Vita Vea is back for this game which is a huge deal. With him on the nose the Bucs are way better against the run. Running the ball would be the pathway for the Eagles to win this one since they are without AJ Brown and Devonta Smith for this one. Lane Johnson's absence can't be underrated either. Tampa should be favoured here.
18:00 PIT Steelers @ IND Colts
IND Colts 2.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
The Steelers game plan is about TJ Watt wrecking the game and have their offense put up just enough points. The Colts have one of the best pass blocking O-lines in the league and a mobile QB in Richardson. The O-line can also put their complete focus on Watt as Alex Highsmith is out injured. Josh Downs is also back which will be a great help for Richardson to get some easy completions. The Steelers will want to run the ball but Jaylen Warren is out while Najee Harris is banged up. Mike Tomlin is 38% ATS as a road favourite coming off a win.
Subtotal143
24 September 2024
00:30 JAX Jaguars @ BUF Bills
JAX Jaguars 5.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Josh Allen is 8-17-1 as a favourite of 4 points or more. 0-2 dogs who play non 0-2 teams are 61% vs the spread. I think the Jags are underrated here and could score on this Bills defense to keep this one close and cover.
Subtotal-50
22 September 2024
21:25 BAL Ravens @ DAL Cowboys
BAL Ravens -1.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Lamar Jackson is 20-1 vs the NFC. This is no surprise as he is such a unicorn that preparing for him is a hard thing to do when you almost never play him. Lamar as a favourite of under a FG or as a dog is 22-7 vs the spread. CeeDee Lamb is not a full participant in practice this week. Him being banged up is terrible news for the Dallas offense that largely goes through him.
1 member found this comment useful
21:05 CAR Panthers @ LV Raiders
CAR Panthers 6.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
It's ugly backing the Panthers here but with Dalton coming in for Bryce Young I think they should be competitive for the first game in a long time. The last time Dalton came in for Young he threw for 360 yards. Now he has a better O-line and better weapons. Back up QB's are 38-30-2 in their first start. The Panthers D has been destroyed by the run in their last 2 games but here they are facing the worst run offense in the league. Week 3 dogs who are 0-2 cover the spread 61% of the time vs non 0-2 teams. I also think this is a let down spot for the Raiders after that huge win vs the Ravens last week.
1 member found this comment useful
21:05 MIA Dolphins @ SEA Seahawks
MIA Dolphins 4.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
I think this line is too big of a correction after Skylar Thompson was announced as the starter for the Dolphins in the wake of Tua's injury. Don't get me wrong: I think Thompson is a below average back up but with Mike McDaniel having 10 days of preparation I think he will find a way to get the ball to his explosive weapons. Meanwhile the Seahawks are without Kenneth Walker which is a huge blow to their chances as their running game will be far less efficient. The Seahawks are 2-0 but they faced two of the worst teams in football not covering the spread in both games. They might go 3-0 here but this should be a close one.
1 member found this comment useful
18:00 DEN Broncos @ TB Buccaneers
DEN Broncos 6.00
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.95
Win
47
With Vita Vea out the Broncos should be able to run the ball on the Bucs to take some pressure of Bo Nix. The Bucs also have a lot of injuries in the secondary. Even if Tampa would go up by double digits I think Denver should be able to backdoor this one. They showed a lot of fight in the first two games backdooring against the Seahawks and getting close vs the Steelers.
1 member found this comment useful
18:00 GB Packers @ TEN Titans
TEN Titans -2.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
When 0-2 favourites play non 0-2 teams they cover the spread 70% of the time. Matt LaFleur did great scheming up a game plan to beat Indy with Malik Willis under center but the circumstances are not ideal to repeat that feat. The Titans have a top-10 defense that's great against the run so Willis will be forced to throw more which doesn't bode well for him. The Titans are also very familiar with Willis as he was on their roster for 2 years until they traded him to Green Bay just a couple of weeks ago.
1 member found this comment useful
18:00 LA Chargers @ PIT Steelers
PIT Steelers -2.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@1.91
Win
46
Justin Herbert is banged up. Even if he plays he will have a rough time against TJ Watt and company. If he does get ruled out and Easton Stick comes in this line not only will rise to about a TD. It will also be impossible for the Chargers to get any type of pass offense going.
1 member found this comment useful
18:00 PHI Eagles @ NO Saints
PHI Eagles 2.50
Point Spread
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
This spread indicates that these are equal teams on a neutral field which isn't the case if you compare the rosters.
Klint Kubiak has done an extraordinary job of making this pedestrian offense into a scoring machine. They are a one trick pony though playing inside and outside zone run and use play action off of it.
This works when you are playing with a lead but once the Saints will need to trail and pass the ball more often I think this offense will turn into a pumpkin. Their O-line is bad at pass blocking and Derek Carr will turn back to Derek Carr. He's still one of the worst QB's against the spread as a favourite as is his HC Dennis Allen.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal135
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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
