dansadough
Horse racing tipster for races class 3 and above, in depth analysis.
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dansadough's Tips History
10 October 2025
15:43 3:43 Chepstow
Moneygarrow
Daily Racing
25 EW
@13.00
Win
35
First time over hurdles. Hopefully, it won't need the run and has been schooled well, as this looks an exciting prospect. It's a full brother to Minella Cocooner, so the trip should be bang on for this, especially as the pace shouldn't be overly strong. Going fresh might be a problem, and that would be the only reason for the price. But all in all, exciting for this and worth a go.
15:12 3:12 Chepstow
Hang In There
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 9.00 on 10/10 at 08:050.00 deduction for Latenightpass@34.00 withdrawn at 14:210.15 deduction for Le Milos @6.500 withdrawn at 14:47R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 8.00 x (1-0.15) = 7.80
@7.80
Win
212
Looks like it could outclass these and has been dropped 4 lbs in the handicap without even running that bad of a race. Just made a late mistake that cost him several lengths. Obviously exposed here, but on last year's form, it tops all of these and, in my opinion, has a good chance of coming out on top. Value.
14:57 2:57 Newmarket
Precise
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTETip made at odds of 2.88 on 10/10 at 09:130.10 deduction for Queen Of Hawaii@9.00 withdrawn at 11:37R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 1.88 x (1-0.10) = 2.69
@2.69
Win
84
Looks a cut above these and should go very well in this. Will sit off the pace in one that will be strongly contested. Is the most unexposed for the mile and it will improve for it. This could be a quality showing today and I expect it to be.
Sugar Island
Daily Racing
25 EW
@41.00
Lose
-50
Despite it needing to improve 12 lbs for this race, I think it still has upside and is ridiculously overpriced. It is proven, and with the upside, it could still better its form in this race. It wouldn't need to improve at all to be competitive.
14:40 2:40 York
Parole Doro
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Win
20
Travels comfortably and is very unexposed for these conditions. I think this race will bring the best out of it. It should be suited by these conditions and should be bang there. Looks strong value for this.
14:25 2:25 Newmarket
Poet Master
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.75
Lose
-50
This could steal it from the front in this race, and I believe it has a great chance here. It is the only one who is consistent and in form in this field. If it runs to its best, with the advantage of a small field, it should be bang there and not for passing. Looks a cracking bet for something I think should be around evens.
14:05 2:05 York
Red Spells Danger
Daily Racing
25 EW
@17.00
Lose
-50
Excellent value as it is so unexposed, but at the same time is also very unexposed and is also only 3 lbs off being the best proven in this race so far. Can sit off the pace slightly in what should be a stalker's race. Looks a good thing at the prices.
13:50 1:50 Newmarket
Mubasimah
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.00
Win
5
I reckon this will go from the front, and the pace isn't that strong either, which means it could nick a couple of lengths from the front. Not only that, I also believe it has the most upside of any in this field, and it beat a decent field on debut, which is also promising. The horses in this race are battlers, but they're also not the classiest. Great chance for this and clear value.
13:30 1:30 York
Isla Kai
Daily Racing
25 EW
@34.00
Lose
-50
Front runner in a weak pace and has the talent on old form to be able to win this on a weak pace. This looks clear value for a pace punt.
Northern Express
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.50
Lose
-50
Will go from the front with Isla Kai and is more in form. I think one of them front runners will win this as they'll have an extreme advantage on a big field crawl. This looks clear value on that front. Also looks only 2 lbs off on the handicap at the moment, which is a positive.
13:15 1:15 Newmarket
Brussels
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-50
Looks nailed on for this new trip as it keeps getting caught late. This makes sense, and even if it does improve here, I think it still is the best in for this race. I believe it will improve at least a couple of lbs, which will then leave it 8 lbs clear of the rest. Looks a great bet for this.
Subtotal56
04 October 2025
14:05 2:05 Newmarket
Colori Forever
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
The lower side has all the pace. The draw bias is against mid, and the higher draws have no pace at all. So this is logical as it's the best placed to win in this race whilst being extremely unexposed. Half Sovereign, if going from the front, will likely get burnt out, which will fall into the lap of this horse.
13:15 1:15 Ascot
Arolla
Daily Racing
25 EW
@41.00
Lose
-50
Hold-up horses are favored for this, and with the pace being fairly strong, there aren't many in this race. Burke is in form, and the horse is handicapped to have a chance in this, especially for a place with 4 places. Looks great value at 40/1 and worth a small bet, in my opinion.
Subtotal-100
03 October 2025
17:15 5:15 Ascot
War Howl
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
With how the race is likely to pan out, this could be the best bet. All the pace is between stalls 3-6, and it's drawn 11, but it does have the rail over them runners. If it goes more prominent than others on the rail, it could have a good time of it in this race. Others in this race have fitness concerns and also form, distance, and trainer concerns; this doesn't. Great value for 9/1 and could go well in this.
16:40 4:40 Ascot
Bob Mali
Daily Racing
25 EW
@9.00
Lose
-50
Can't see this being out of the frame in this race with the lack of pace here. I always like middle-drawn horses, and this looks best handicapped for the conditions here. It will be up with the pace, which will give an advantage to Bob Mali to allow it to get the first run on the others. The others up with the pace are all pretty badly handicapped for these specific conditions, in my opinion.
16:05 4:05 Ascot
Circus Of Rome
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.00
Lose
-50
The front two in the market do have more ability, but the staying power of an Ascot 14 furlong race is the factor I am questioning here. Circus of Rome is extremely proven, and I think it also could find a pound or two of improvement for this race and its conditions, where others may go in the other direction in unexposed conditions. Richard Hughes is flying at the moment as well, with horses running to marks they should be running to. Finley Marsh is also a great jockey, so no concern on that front. Should show a strong showing.
15:30 3:30 Ascot
Military Cross
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
Was a real staying eye-catcher at Kempton last time out when going down by a nose and had very heavy market support when going off 17/2 from 16/1 on debut. It reacted remarkably well to pressure and would have won if it didn't lose so many lengths at the start. It was extremely green and surely would have learned a lot from that run. Should go extremely well here even with Buick choosing the other Godolphin horse.
14:55 2:55 Ascot
Double Meaning
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.80
Lose
-50
This has a lot going for it. Unexposed, great deal of stamina, and is tactically suited to how this should pan out. It should be played prominent for this race today, and that will allow it to get first run on others that may be better handicapped. It is a tactical punt, but I also think it could improve by around 5 lbs in this race, which would then make it the best handicapped in the field. It just needs to settle (the weak pace won't help that). Has a great turn of foot as well, which is another swaying factor.
14:20 2:20 Ascot
Stenmark
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 9.00 used instead of 7.50 takenBOG
@9.00
Win
15
All the pace is higher up on the draw, and this is drawn highest. It will have no problems with the conditions. It is purely a 7f horse, which could be a concern if it had a claimer on board, but Simon Walker is probably the most experienced jockey in this field (meaning he'll probably be stronger than others). It was narrowly beaten by Kisskodi last time out, who will go on to be better than its current mark, in my opinion. It only got a 2lb rise for that, and it's improved a lot since its return from a layoff in April and should carry on the progression here in this race. With all the pace being high, I think he'll have a massive advantage here if ridden prominently.
Subtotal-235
30 September 2025
15:30 3:30 Ayr
Liamarty Dreams
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
Suited by the conditions here and should also be tactically suited by the way the race is likely to develop. This should run in a front runner's favor, and I believe Sam James will be told to try and steal this from the front. The draw is a slight worry, but it's not major. If it doesn't cost a lot of lengths at the start, this should be able to dictate and steal from the front in this race. 9/1 is value.
Subtotal-50
27 September 2025
15:40 3:40 Newmarket
Real Gain
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.50
Lose
-50
Is the best handicapped based on the run 2 years ago in these conditions and has had a tune-up run this season for this race. Matches all 5 main trends which are: aged 5 (4-6 are 18/23), won 3 or more times in career (won 3), double figure stall (drawn 22), carried 9-5 or less (carries 8-12). This horse has an excellent chance and is still unexposed in my opinion at the age of 5 as it is so lightly raced. Even if it isn't, it is still the most proven for the conditions, being one of the only ones to have done the exact conditions. The way it performed here at the age of 3 was extremely impressive. The run LTO looks to have been a tune-up run for this, and I expect a big run here. Perfect layoff, perfect plot.
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15:15 3:15 Haydock
First Ambition
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.00
Win
5
Could be anything, and with its only runs being on the AW and Burke being in such good form at the moment, I expect it to make it 3/3 in this race. I think it can improve 6 lbs quite easily. Very good chance.
15:00 3:00 Newmarket
Brussels
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 10.00 used instead of 9.00 takenBOG
@10.00
Win
20
Back on conditions it likes a lot (which it has only done once, firmer ground 6f), and I think with the first-time tongue strap, it will finally return to form. With O'Brien having three in the race, the favorite, in all honesty, looks very strong. But there is still unlimited improvement for this horse for these conditions, in my opinion, so it will be very interesting to see how this plays out here. It clearly can only go 6f, and that's what it gets today.
14:25 2:25 Newmarket
Royal Fixation
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-50
The right favorite in my opinion and the value at 10/3, which I've been waiting for as 3s was too short. It should run its race like the previous two races, and it should improve a few pounds as well, which in my opinion will be enough to get in front here. The favorite looks risky in these conditions, and Beautify, in my opinion, looks to need a mile, especially given its entry in the mile next month. Looks a nailed-on bet for this, and I expect it to go very close.
13:50 1:50 Newmarket
Ancient Egypt
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
Only has run twice and is one of the only ones who is truly proven in a strongly run race, and that also being at the same trip and going. May be one of the most exposed for these conditions, but is also one of the best proven at the same time, which in my opinion makes 9/1 extremely good value for this race here today. matches all trends also.
Subtotal-125
25 September 2025
17:45 5:45 Listowel
Mahon Falls
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.33
Lose
-50
Mullins has won 3 out of 10 runnings of this race in the past, and this is his only runner in the field today.
17:23 5:23 Perth
Kopa Kilana
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.25
Lose
-50
A comfortable traveling horse who is 1 lb within being the best handicapped in this field. That run was LTO, and it looked like it could have done better. The JT record here is unmatched.
17:18 5:18 Newmarket
Criminal Shore
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
Has a jockey upgrade with Oisin Murphy, is the best at the weights, and Oisin has a 35 percent strike record on favourites (this horse currently is). Would have beaten a good rival last time out if not for hanging late on the same mark, and its best run from 4th last run sticks it 1lb better than the rest of the field here. Great chance and value.
17:10 5:10 Listowel
Hitak
Daily Racing
25 EW
@29.00
Win
115
Has a £41 profit to the pound when only having 1 runner at the course in chase races, which is eye-catching. It should come on from the run in August where it pulled up at Galway.
16:45 4:45 Newmarket
Secret Beach
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@7.00
Win
180
Is one of the best handicapped in this race (1 lb out) and Brookhouse is £10 in profit to a £1 stake when he has one runner at a meeting, which is a great trend for this. Smashed the rest of the field when an unlucky 2nd at Chester and looks to be coming up to a win any minute now.
16:28 4:28 Pontefract
Twirling
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Lose
-50
Very interesting Nicky Henderson horse who looks the least exposed in this race for these unfamiliar conditions. I think it'll improve here with Luke Morris riding in this. It does have 6 lbs to find, but the fact it is unexposed for these conditions could lead to it ending up being better handicapped than others for this. Looks a cracking punt at 25s.
16:10 4:10 Newmarket
Spirit Mixer
Daily Racing
25 EW
@11.00
Lose
-50
An interesting punt based on the value here is the only one in this race that has stayed the trip. Balding has won 2 of the last 10 of this race, which shows intent. I think it's value given how proven it is compared to others in this field over the 2-mile trip.
15:43 3:43 Perth
Hold Onto The Line
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.00
Lose
-50
Finally steps up in trip, which has been needed. Olly Murphy has been in excellent form recently and sticks Sean Bowen in the saddle. Olly Murphy, as well as Bowen, have a cracking course record. The signs are positive, and this looks a cracking each-way bet, especially if the horse improves any more than a couple of lbs for the trip.
15:25 3:25 Listowel
Shaboozee
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Best at the weights by 2 lbs and the least exposed to go with that as well. Looks like a great bet for this. Joseph O'Brien has a 20 percent summer jumps strike rate and has won 2 of the last 10 runnings of this race. Looks a solid bet.
15:18 3:18 Pontefract
Yorkshire Puds
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
Appleby has an excellent record with horses in first-time headgear. The horse was expensive and should have a lot of ability (more than a mark of 78). On handicap debut, I think it could take advantage of that mark in this race here. It drops to a class 4 handicap here after being tried in a group 2 last time out. It could be well overpriced for what it could be.
15:00 3:00 Newmarket
Royal Velvet
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
This horse is best at the weights, and Buick has a 40 percent strike rate on favourites and also is 29 percent at the course. He rides it so well. The horse takes a 5lb rise in the weights, but it shouldn't be enough to stop another win here and still leaves Lady Roxby 1lb behind.
14:33 2:33 Perth
Lightkeeper
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
Sean Bowen and Gordon Elliot have excellent trends for this race with a 31 percent combined win record at the course. This horse is only 3 lbs off the best at the weights for this, making it a value selection in my opinion. The horse itself is a course specialist also, which further boosts confidence. This looks solid and looks to have a great chance on the back of the win LTO.
14:25 2:25 Newmarket
Monoceros
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.00
Lose
-50
Matches an unmatched amount of trends, and Appleby has won 3/3 of the last runnings of this race. Should improve a few lbs for this race and could easily be the best handicapped here. Lightly raced and should improve for the extra furlong given the breeding and the way it finished at Leicester LTO. Looks a solid bet for this.
14:15 2:15 Listowel
Lady Kingburagh
Daily Racing
25 EW
@101.00
Lose
-50
72 of Milan's progeny have won on their hurdles debuts, which is a stat I can't ignore for a small bet at 100s. It puts it at small value, in my opinion.
Subtotal-305
13 September 2025
17:30 5:30 Leopardstown
White Birch
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.50
Lose
-50
Has been waited with for the softer going and gets it today. That performance at the end of last year when winning puts White Birch 2 lbs ahead of anything in the field, and this looks the clear night and day value in the field. Shin Emperor doesn't look to have much more to offer being 4 lbs behind. Delacroix may have, but he's 2 lbs behind from that win at Sandown in the Eclipse, but his temperament is extremely worrying. Anmaat looks about a lb behind with little to offer more. Yes, White Birch's win was at a still 10.5f in May last year, but since then softer going hasn't been available, so progression has been held. In this, he can finally show progression from that run when beating Auguste Rodin.
1 member found this comment useful
16:55 4:55 Leopardstown
Expanded
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
Still remains with plenty of potential from its form last season and now gets the soft ground again, which it looked to have been begging for at the same time as stepping down a grade. It nearly won the Dewhurst on soft ground last year, so it is beyond me that this is 14/1 for this being still so unexposed. Yes, the form has been poor, but it has run in far stronger races than this and has looked eased off. Also, they have been on unfavorable ground. This looks solid value and should be close in this, granted it stays a mile (which I think it does).
1 member found this comment useful
16:50 4:50 Doncaster
Fantasy Believer
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@10.00
Win
270
Running to a top level and is best handicapped here judging off both the AW run LTO and the Chepstow run before that. In both, it got quite unlucky and looked to have been able to run to more. There aren't any unexposed horses really in this contest, and that leads me to think that this horse, being the best at the weights and proven on the softer ground, is the best bet, especially at 9/1. The value on this selection is huge, and I expect a huge run for this race tomorrow. Oisin on board also for Ed Walker, who does decent here.
1 member found this comment useful
16:25 4:25 Leopardstown
Sparks Fly
Daily Racing
25 EW
@26.00
Lose
-50
This price is huge for such a strong soft ground performer who may still have a little more to offer going off the listed win in Saint-Cloud. That performance and the Nottingham race both put this horse only 3 lbs off the two market leaders, and with the strong pace as well, likely this will run best if it turns to a slog. It'll stay on well, and it looks to have been saved for this race. This is a huge step up in grade, but it'll be there if others underperform, and that's for certain. 25/1 is decent value for this here.
1 member found this comment useful
15:50 3:50 Leopardstown
Reyenzi
Daily Racing
25 EW
@21.00
Lose
-50
Steps up to a mile and a half, and this will bring improvement. The price is insanity on this. Murtagh is in excellent form, and this step up could slice that 5lb gap to Al Aasy easily, in my opinion. It would have run to a lot more last time out if it didn't do so much so soon. With a better ride, this will have every chance of getting up, up in trip. 20/1 is crazy for a horse who is still unexposed. Excellent value. Omni Man and It's a Heartbeat are also looking like great value for this race.
1 member found this comment useful
15:40 3:40 Doncaster
Carmers
Daily Racing
25 EW
@6.00
Lose
-50
3 PLACES are on offer, and this is the best of those at an each-way price for this big race here. Lambourn shouldn't improve much from the Epsom run, which was only 5 lbs better than this horse's last run. Scandinavia also shouldn't really improve much with the drop in trip from the Goodwood run. Both of those runs individually have the same sort of overall pace and stamina combination. However, this horse is completely unexposed for these conditions and should certainly improve for them and looks the clear value. The step up should bring at least 5/6 lbs improvement, and that is all it is behind the two market leaders. Looks a great bet in my opinion, and this is who I'm siding with over the O'Brien horses.
1 member found this comment useful
15:20 3:20 Leopardstown
Montreal
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@2.50
Void
0
Very short, but short for a reason. It not only looks 2lbs clear on evident form, but also it is still extremely unexposed. O'Brien's top jockey at the moment has been booked over Whelan, who rides the other favourite (2lbs behind on form and also less unexposed). This looks value and I'm surprised it isn't odds-on for such a promising colt by Sea The Stars. The debut doesn't worry me too much. It was green and had things fall out of favour and didn't really look to be tried on. However, last time out it showed tons of ability.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Doncaster
Ten Bob Tony
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.50
Lose
-50
Bit scummy playing this each way, but I am worried about the favorite in this. However, they have waited patiently for this, and I believe the intent is a lot stronger. I believe it is actually a pound better than Shadow of Light in these conditions. It looks a solid bet at 9/2 to take the favorite on with, and there isn't much else in the race I can see as any stronger value than this. Should go off around 3/1 for this race and looks a cracking bet. Trainer's course record would be the only concern for this.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Chester
Prydwen
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 17.00 used instead of 12.00 takenBOG
@17.00
Win
55
This is one of the most open races I have ever seen. Over this trip, this looks like the only horse that can find some improvement for the conditions in this field. I am hoping for the ground to get a little slower, but if the rain does come down again like it has been all week, this will be majorly in this horse's favor for this race. The race over 14f at Killarney in August last year leaves this around 6lbs well in for this race over others. With it not having run over 2 miles for over a year (in my opinion, his best trip, albeit a sharp 2 miles), I think this still leaves a little room for improvement. The firm ground has been killing it all year, and it definitely won't be that. 11/1 is value, and it should go off shorter, a lot shorter if there is rain.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Doncaster
Addison Grey
Daily Racing
25 EW
@9.00
Lose
-50
There should be 6 places available, and at 8/1, I'd be very surprised if this horse doesn't get in the frame given how unexposed he is. Still a colt and still very unexposed, being one of the only 3-year-olds (which could be fairly overwhelming, the only concern). The pace in this race will be extremely strong, and I think with this horse's best run being at a stiff 6f with what looked like more to offer shows it'll have the stamina for this. The fact it'll more than likely be around the mid-pack also helps, as horses coming off the pace will be advantaged. Clive Cox hasn't won this race yet, and with this, it could be his turn.
1 member found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Chester
Military Academy
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-50
Actually, it looks 4 lbs better handicapped than the field here. With that performance at Goodwood 2nd last time out matching well to what's likely here, I think 7/2 is value and it should get shorter. The Gosdens don't really send many to Chester, but when they do, they usually run to form (even though the SR isn't the greatest). Sir Dinadan looks a decent bet also in the race, but it needs to find around 6 lbs to beat this if Military Academy is on song.
13:50 1:50 Doncaster
Cape Orator
Daily Racing
25 EW
@6.00
Lose
-50
Could easily place in the top 2 in what looks like a 3-runner race here, and 5/1 shouldn't last long for this. The run in Deauville puts this horse 3 lbs within Gewans' last run, but the improvement is a near guarantee for this horse with the extra half furlong from that run. It looks the value out of the 3 market leaders for sure and a great each-way bet with only 5 runners. It is worth noting this is also the most expensive horse in the race.
13:15 1:15 Doncaster
Hawksbill
Daily Racing
25 EW
@8.00
Lose
-50
4 places on offer, and in a race where most of the field is exposed in my opinion. The last run showed this horse for certain isn't. However, it needs to make up around 3 lbs to beat the favourite (Treble Tee). However, Hawksbill's best run was at a similar course, whereas Treble Tee enjoyed Goodwood, which is completely different to this. Looks a good bet at this price where 4 places are available.
Subtotal-175
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
