violets

Supremely West has been targeted for this since his promising run on seasonal reappearance. He’s fresh and on an amazing mark. The trainer has concluded he needs 3 miles after attempting to drop him in trip on his last start. Couldn’t have Bold Endeavour here, as I hate horses with such profiles.

I thought Chris Gordon had a nice runner here named Bass Hunter. Despite the eventual distance, he won very easily at Ascot the other day. He’s been kept since, and I feel like this horse could be something special. He’ll have the run of the race and wouldn’t have to worry about getting too lonely today.

Kateira first caught my eye at Doncaster. Tristan rode her that day, and he decided to give the leaders about a 10-length head start. I was very surprised. I imagine they have been trying to get her mark down since they decided she’s probably not good enough for graded racing. This trip in a big field is ideal for this runner, and Skelton knows how to get one ready for this race.

A horse I’ve really started fancying this season is Leave of Absence. This runner won very gamely on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham under similar conditions to this race. The trainer decided to run him just three weeks later, which is a decision I just couldn’t understand. On ground he doesn’t enjoy, he ultimately felt the aftermath of that hard battle and got tired quite quickly. People blamed the handicap mark and the ground, but to me the run just came too soon, and it was a race you needed to put a line through, so I decided to take my chance with him at Ascot. It’s easy to say afterwards, but the jockey probably sent him on too early. He ran one last time in a race against one of the main contenders for the Gold Cup, carrying similar weight on heavy ground. All this isn’t ideal, but he ran creditably, to be honest. I’m hoping he still has some energy left for one big performance this season.

In the end, I’ve decided that Saratoga will win this race. Horse Racing Twitter was very quick to call out Mark Walsh for his ride on his latest start, and rightly so, as it was ridiculous. It seems like he was pushing the horse downwards going into the last, and whatever he did after that couldn’t have made the horse go faster. Padraig Roche got away with winning this same Naas race in 2022 with Brazil, but he ended up racing off a mark of 137, which surely could have been avoided if given a similar ride to what Saratoga was given the other day. A rating of 130 seems workable, and his flat form isn’t bad either.

This horse won the County Hurdle in good fashion last season, as she showed her speed when it turned into a sprint at the end. The form of the race has worked out well, and she ran respectably behind State Man on her final start over hurdles. You can excuse her reappearance, as she wasn’t at her best on her first start last season either. She put in two good performances at Leopardstown after that, giving Romeo Coolio a run for his money in a tactical affair. She’s had a much cleaner preparation this year for her festival bid, but obviously is contesting a more competitive race. I’d side with her though, a true chaser whose ideal distance is two miles.

I was quite confident in Old Park Star when he won at Cheltenham, putting him up mainly because Nicky rode him so confidently on his previous run at Kempton. I only got serious on him after the final hurdle, after which he extended the distance to his rivals. It looked like he was going to win by about a length, but him staying on so nicely made me think he’d be perfectly suited to Cheltenham. Before his run at Haydock, I told myself this horse must be a good bet for the Supreme whatever the result here, with Cheltenham suiting him so well earlier on. Haydock is a completely different test, but he destroyed his rivals once more that day. Of course, doubters are saying that he hasn’t beaten much, or that his rivals weren’t at their best at that time. Others say he’s a good horse without being a superstar, but I don’t really understand where they are coming from. I was already thinking about this race after the Cheltenham run, but the Irish hadn’t really shown themselves and I unfortunately decided to patiently wait for them to show what they had in their locker.

Rebel's Romance is the hot favourite in this race and will probably win, but it's a horse I'm not a big fan of and, in general, I always like to oppose. Burdett Road didn't settle at all in the Red Sea Turf Handicap, but I thought he ran creditably regardless. The trainer would have had some thinking after that and has decided to take off the tongue-tie. Oisin Murphy is booked, which is a positive. I think he has the speed for 1m4f and can at least get a place if settling better here.

A Path To Ronda has been doing well in Listed/Grade 2 company and should be much the best in this novice race. She's well in at the weights here.

Protektorat doesn't have any competition here and will use this as training for Aintree. He's 11 years old now, but his run at Windsor was good enough to show he has retained his abilities.

You can make a case for many in this 3-mile handicap hurdle, but I’m interested in Lacey, his runner here. Walden made all on seasonal reappearance at Huntingdon. The finish looked a little strange, as so many horses were involved at the end, which would suggest that the pace was slow, turning it into a sprint. But I thought he was pressured throughout for the lead, forcing him to go quite hard up front. His following run was strange, as the jockey decided to hold him up in last. About halfway he was detached and never recovered from that point on. I’m really not too sure what to think of that, but the trainer has decided to enter him in a big field over a longer distance. I’m very curious if Stan will hold him up or try front-running tactics once again. He’s only rated 115, and this 6yo still should have a lot of improvement left in him.