Tourettecherous

Some great value in this selection. Dramatic Star presents what seems to be the best form, finishing a short-head runner-up over C&D last November in a Class 2 from just 2 lb lower. He can take an interesting-looking race, dropping in grade today.

This race seems potentially open to a few, as Lilting Verse was runner-up last year and Smurfette made a bad mistake two out when upped in grade last time out. I'm back the market favourite Solar System, racing on chase debut from just 1 lb above last hurdles win.

Potentially taking a chance here despite the odds not being great. Flash In The Park is just 2 lb heavier than when successful over C&D three months ago and should cross the line if market favourite Sea Thrift lacks fluency in jumping again.

This is a rough-looking race, but Shesupincourt is a two-time hurdle winner. She completed a double over 2m 7f on heavy and soft ground in late 2023 and is 6 lb lower than for that win today. Seems like the best form on offer, and this looks like another huge price!

A four-time A.W. winner, Balqaa has won three times over the trip and once over C&D from 2 lb heavier than today, and was a neck second over C&D two races ago from today's weight. Seems obscenely overpriced.

A course winner over 7f, Liberty Bird finished a neck runner-up over C&D last October from 1 lb heavier, and that's as good form as any in this one.

Another massively overpriced pick. Moab returns to the C&D of his sole A.W. win to date from the same winning weight and can cause an upset to the 4-timer-chasing favourite. Anyone's race, though.

Two-time C&D winner Fortunate Star is dropped 1 lb after a 3 l 4th-placed finish over C&D a few weeks ago, when just a neck behind the favourite (4 lb better off today) and 2 l ahead of Stash The Cash (weighted to frank form today). He is only 1 lb above his last winning weight. Looks massively overpriced.

This will be my big pick for the night for a bit of fun. West Ham have won just 24% of their PL games this season, winning 25% of their home games, but their recent form has seen them win 3 of their last 4 and take 4 points from their last 3 at home. They've scored 1.8 per game in their last 4, conceding just 0.8, and at home they've scored 2 per game and conceded 1.67. United have enough firepower to score at least once tonight, averaging 1.84 goals per PL game this season and 1.75 away from home, but they also concede 1.44 per game and 1.75 away from home. Recently they've averaged 1.88 goals per game and 1.6 conceded in their last 8, and 2.11 per game and 1.56 conceded in their last 9 away league games. West Ham need points, but it will have to fight for their lives to get them tonight, so 7s seems a great take for BTTS & West Ham win.

Should be one of the bankers of the night, with every bit of form backing a Birmingham win. The hosts have won 38.71% of their league games this season, scoring 1.39 per game and conceding 1.26. But their win percentage rises to a whopping 53.33% at home, scoring 2 goals per game and conceding just 1. They're unbeaten in 6, winning 4, scoring 1.83 per game and conceding just 0.83, and they're unbeaten in 10 at home, winning 6, scoring 2.3 per game and conceding just 0.9. West Brom have just an 18.75% win rate away from home in the league, scoring just 0.88 per game and conceding 1.75. They're winless in 7, losing 5, scoring just 0.57 per game and conceding 2.14, and they're winless in 12 away from home, losing 11, scoring just 0.67 per game and conceding 2. West Brom have won the last 2 H2H but they were both at home, while Birmingham have won the last 3 when they've played at home.

Would've taken -1 handicap, but the odds aren't distant enough for my liking. Everything supports a comfortable Chelsea win tonight. They have a 48% win rate in the PL this season, rising to 50% at home, scoring 1.8 goals per match (1.67 at home), conceding just 1.12 (1.08 at home). Their current form has seen them win all of their last 4 league matches, scoring 2.75 goals per game and conceding just 1. They've lost just 1 of their last 7 home league matches (4W-2D-1L), scoring 2 goals per match and conceding just 1. For Leeds ??" they've won 28% of their PL matches this season, dropping right down to just 8.33% away from home, scoring 1.36 goals per match (1 away from home) and conceding 1.72 (2.08 away from home). Their current form has seen them take an impressive 7 pts from a possible 12 in their last 4, losing only to Arsenal, but they're winless in 9 on the road, losing 5, and they've scored just 1 goal per game during that run while conceding 2. H2H, Chelsea have won all of the last 3 meetings when at home.

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We'll find out tonight as a tight Everton team hosts a chaotic Bournemouth. The home side yields low-scoring matches while the visitors yield high-scoring matches. While both clubs' Premier League win rates lie between 30??"40%, Everton maintain a decent percentage at home while Bournemouth's nosedives to 16.67% away from home. The Toffees score just 1.12 per game (1.25 at home) while conceding just 1.12 (1.33 at home). They're unbeaten in five, scoring 1.2 per game and conceding just 0.8. At home, they're unbeaten in two, with both matches finishing 1??"1. Bournemouth are also unbeaten in their last five, scoring 2 per game and conceding 1.2, while they've taken 6 points from a possible 15 in their last five on the road, scoring 2 per game and conceding 2.2. I'm expecting Everton to try to nullify Bournemouth's goal threat tonight while stealing a one-goal win due to the visitors' awful away record.