TipTom

Hi I target the biggest horse races of the week (both codes) using historical trends, comparing the stats of previous winners and narrowing the field finding the value bet. I also use my own personal notes and information from my tracker as I stat-profile thoroughbreds throughout the week for my own personal enjoyment. I recommend a 40 point betting bank, simple 1 point win bets or 0.5 point e/w bets and I try and get the earliest possible price on BOG often placing my bets at 8am in the morning or 2 days earlier if I want to grab the price. My process is a patient bank building method that builds profit steadily over the year and not to mention the fun involved. These are the biggest races of the week and provide hours of entertainment on a race day. I stake sensibly, all my tips are 1 point win or 0.5 point e/w bets. I’m not a high roller, I’m a family man who enjoys betting on racing and spend any extra cash I make on my young family although I do spend a lot of time and effort doing this and take my betting very seriously. Thank you for checking me out and I hope you all enjoy following my tips and more importantly bet responsibly.

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TipTom's Tips History

19 October 2024

16:35 4:35 Ascot

Mr Professor

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@11.00

Lose

-50

Amo geldings have been shortening in the betting all week, and the 121-day break won't be a problem. He's won off similar breaks previously and loves soft ground.

Toimy Son

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Another one whose odds have shortened dramatically in the market, and the gelding loves soft/heavy ground. He impressed last time out in the Cambridgeshire and he's on the same mark. Dropping him back to a mile will do him no harm.

15:15 3:15 Ascot

Metropolitan

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I'm not concerned that the colt is worse off in the weights, as the last time he met Charyn, he was the closest out of the whole field to the winner. That was on good ground, and the conditions weren't in his favour. He's back on his favoured soft ground today and likely to be very close at a big price.

1 member found this comment useful

14:35 2:35 Ascot

Content

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@6.50

Lose

-50

The filly is likely to be the favourite by the time the race starts; she has been shortening in the betting all week. She won previously on soft ground last October, which looks like a good month to catch her.

Quantanamera

Daily Racing

25 EW

@8.50

Lose

-50

The filly won with plenty to spare last time out in a French Group 2 race. That was on testing ground, and she's another one who enjoys success in the latter part of the season.

13:55 1:55 Ascot

Mill Stream

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Lose

-50

Colts won twice previously on softer ground and he's had previous Group 1 success. The last two wins have been under William Buick, and it's essential that the winner has a jockey who has previously ridden the horse. That's why I discounted Spycatcher, as Sam James hasn't ridden him before.

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13:20 1:20 Ascot

Al Nayyir

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@7.00

Lose

-50

The gelding has been a revelation since he joined Tom Clover. The favourite is over-raced and likely tired after 6 wins already this season, including his 2 mile 4 furlongs slog 14 days ago. Al Nayyir is the one most likely to capitalize.

13 October 2024

14:50 2:50 Naas

Azada

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.50

Win

225

Lightly raced fillies have performed okay in listed and group races this year. She has run at Group 1 level previously and won her only race last October. It looks like the time to catch her.

12 October 2024

14:40 2:40 York

Aleezdancer

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@26.00

Lose

-50

The gelding ran in this race last season with a 7lbs claimer off 1lb lower, finishing 6th. He also won here three starts ago, so the track suits him. The trainers have had previous success in this race, and he's 1163 on the soft ground. If he can equal any of that, he'll be in the place money. He's worth backing each-way at this price, with some bookies paying 6 places.

14:05 2:05 York

Dual Identity

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@11.00

Lose

-50

Geldings have been running in much more valuable handicaps than this all season. He finished 2nd here in a heritage handicap two starts ago and didn't run badly in the Cambridgeshire last time out. He likes York, handles the ground, and races in the £20,000 prize money category, which seems to be his ceiling.

11 October 2024

16:10 4:10 Newmarket

Blake

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

If Mount Atlas fails to deliver, Blake is a handy colt to have on standby, still available at a decent e/w price. He's won 2 class 4 handicaps already and wasn't far behind in a class 2 last time out, finishing his race like an extra furlong or two will suit. He gets that here, and he's good value for place money.

Mount Atlas

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.00

Lose

-50

The Colts' price has absolutely decimated. I'm not surprised as he matches all the relevant trends that have previously won this race. He's won on good and soft ground, so no issues there, and the trainer has had previous success in this.

15:15 3:15 Chepstow

Ryans Rocket

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.88

Lose

-50

The gelding opened up at 7/1, and the price has well and truly evaporated, unsurprisingly, as the trainer has a fine record in this race. The gelding ran over hurdles three times, winning convincingly the last two times.

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Topgear

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@7.50

Win

195

This French horse has some superb form in group races, never finishing outside the first two. His trainer is in superb form too, and he's still big enough to back each way.

05 October 2024

15:00 3:00 Ascot

Purosangue

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@8.50

Lose

-50

The Colts have been trying to win all season, coming desperately close on two occasions, none more so than last time out, losing by a neck to Quinalt in the Garroby Stakes. He's only finished outside the top two once on soft ground, that was in a Group 2. He's never finished outside the top three in Group 3 company, and with the ground in his favour, I'm expecting him to come very close.

14:40 2:40 Newmarket

Tamfana

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@3.75

Win

137

Filly is 141 over the distance, the ground shouldn't be an issue and she benefited lto dropping back to a mile, she tops the shortlist.

14:25 2:25 Ascot

Gather Ye Rosebuds

Daily Racing

25 EW

@23.00

Lose

-50

Came joint top of the shortlist alongside last year's winner, Al Qareem. Previous winners don't tend to win it again, and Jamie Spencer's ride is a huge price. Dropping back to 12 furlongs is a big plus, as it looks like her ideal trip. She's already a listed winner, and her form on soft ground stands out, winning 2/3 times. She can't be ignored at a massive price.

28 September 2024

15:40 3:40 Newmarket

Godwinson

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@11.00

Lose

-50

Geldings ran well in 3/4 of his handicap starts this season, lto winner at Goodwood and an impressive 4th at York 2 starts ago, he's got a nice draw and should go well.

Theoryofeverything

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

Dutching e/w alongside Godwinson, he's been backed down from 25/1, he's impressed in handicaps, winning 2 this season and all his wins have come on soft ground and he provides decent e/w value at this price.

15:20 3:20 Ripon

Magical Spirit

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@19.00

Lose

-50

Trainer does well with ageing geldings in this race winning 1 in 2011 with an 8 year old who was 15 lbs below his highest OR. Magical Spirit is also on the down grade but at 91 it's achievable as he won comfortably off 88 four starts ago.

15:10 3:10 Curragh

Keke

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@4.33

Win

166

Progressive gelding has been awesome handicapping this year, he ran in his first premier handicap lto and finished 4th in a hot race finishing strongly. His price has shortened from its original 13/2 so he's being well backed.

27 September 2024

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Spiritual

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.00

Lose

-50

Gosden filly is running in her first achievable race since her win at Sandown 3 starts ago, she's 1 2 1 on her starts below group 3 level, her owner George Strawbridge also has mouthwatering returns on his 3 year olds that are trained by the Gosdens and running in listed company, she heads the shortlist by a mile even though she's never ran on heavy she won on her only start on soft ground.

25 September 2024

16:05 4:05 Goodwood

Heartache Tonight

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@11.00

Lose

-50

The filly's shortened in the betting since the opening prices became available, she's only won once and that was on heavy ground, she's ran her best races on heavyincluding an impressive 6th in a group 2 three starts ago, I'm dutching the filly e/w alongside Maxi King.

Maxi King

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Lose

-50

The colts won on both previous starts on heavy ground and the 76 day break should've freshened him up a bit after a couple of lacklustre performances. He's got his ideal conditions toad and I've sided with him e/w alongside Heartache Tonight.

21 September 2024

13:15 1:15 Ayr

Diamondonthehill

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@21.00

Lose

-50

Rated 87 the gelding lost by a neck on this mark 3 starts ago, he lost by 9 1/2 lengths at Thirsk lto but that's not a concern because his last 2 wins have come off the back of similar defeats. Both trainer and jockey have previous success at this meeting and the price is plenty big enough for place money.

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20 September 2024

16:25 4:05 Newbury

Nostrum

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@5.00

Lose

-50

Geldings been entered for several races since his last run 83 days ago but been pulled out before the final declarations. Trainer looks like he's found a suitable assignment this time and he's just had a wind op. He's the highest rated in this field and looks the 1 to beat.

Witness Stand

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 11.00 on 20/09 at 08:300.30 deduction for Lake Forest@2.88 withdrawn at 14:13R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 10.00 x (1-0.30) = 8.00

@8.00

Win

210

E/W alternative to Nostrum has been performed well in handicap company, he steps up in class today but the prize isn't out of reach, the jockeys had success on him previously too.

16:15 4:15 Ayr

Trilby

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.50

Lose

-50

Jockey Joe Fanning has never finished outside the top 6 on all 8 starts on Trilby, if that stat holds out there'll be place money available here with the bookies paying 6 places. The gelding has finished 6th and 4th in both big field handicaps he took part in so he looks suited to those. He's showed encouraging form on his last 4 handicap starts finishing in the top 4 around 1 length behind the winner. He's only rated 4+ his last winning start and handicap success at Ayr looks to be the target, he has conditions to suit.

15:40 3:40 Ayr

Marine Wave

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@12.00

Lose

-50

Trainer usually does well at this meeting, she finished 7th 12 days ago but she's won off short breaks before and previously won in listed company, she's big enough to back e/w with some bookies paying 4 places.

18 September 2024

15:30 3:30 Yarmouth

Lady Boba

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.50

Lose

-50

Lope De Vega filly hasn't finished outside the top 3 in group 2 or lower, she's been running in better races than this all season only failing to make the frame lto and that was in group 1 company, she's still big enough to back e/w here.

Regal Jubilee

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@13.00

Lose

-50

Yards other runner got pulled out leaving this 3 year old whose finished in the top 2 of both her listed starts. The owners also have the favourite running but she's only started once and has questions to answer leaving this Frankel filly as the value e/w alternative. I expect her to make the frame alongside Lady Boba and Dora Milaje.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

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