TheGamblerTips
Posting tips on football and horse racing - sharing my logic and knowledge with you all to beat the bookies. Happy to provide tips on request if you message on Twitter.
0
Estimated Prizes
this month
£0
Estimated Prize money
this month
TheGamblerTips's Tips History
15 April 2025
20:00 8:00 Kempton
Bishops Crown
Daily Racing
50 EW
@13.00
Lose
-100
BISHOPS CROWN has first time out figures of 12 and should be ready to strike again over this distance from which all of his wins have come from. Although carrying high weight, the low draw should outweigh any negatives and allow a prominent position to finish well.
19:30 7:30 Kempton
Fleetwater
Daily Racing
50 EWNOTETip made at odds of 11.00 on 15/04 at 07:360.10 deduction for Queue Dos@7.50 withdrawn at 19:33R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 10.00 x (1-0.10) = 10.00
@10.00
Win
40
FLEETWATER is drawn well loe and last won when ridden prominent by this jockey which is a significant advantage at this course. In class 5 6f events, she has form figures of 122 and with the advantageous low draw it's likely she could be in the frame again on return and AW debut today.
15:35 3:35 Newmarket
Verse Of Love
Daily Racing
100 WINNAP
@3.00
Lose
-100
VERSE OF LOVE is reappearing ahead of her 1000 guineas entry next month and will want to make a good show of herself in preparation for that where she is currently 18/1. Second favourite ARABIAN DUSK also has an entry there, but is currently 66/1 which suggests a big gap between these two from the bookies which we could see here today.
14:25 2:25 Newmarket
Green Storm
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@4.50
Lose
-100
GREEN STORM is my pick for this listed event having the most experience and highest RPRs in the field and the ability to handle the softening ground here at Newmarket. Good claims if reappearing with how he finished with 2 second placers and both over 100 RPR.
13:50 1:50 Newmarket
Aramram
Daily Racing
50 EW
@6.50
Win
5
ARAMRAM has gained some fitness and been unfortunate not to win in 2 starts this year with 99RPRs in both. Conditions at Newmarket are changing with the rain this morning and it will be more like good to soft ground which a few of these will not enjoy, however this pick has won on soft previously so shouldn't be a problem.
Subtotal-255
13 April 2025
18:45 6:45 Musselburgh
New Image
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-100
NEW IMAGE has good turf form and has won here over 7f previously. Reappearing for the first time this campaign, and he won when favourite 4/5 times in 2024 including a win first time out. Hopefully this Frankel gelding can repeat a winning start this year.
17:45 5:45 Musselburgh
Marhaba Ghaiyyath
Daily Racing
100 WINNAP
@2.25
Lose
-100
MARHABA GHAIYYATH is aiming to complete a hatrick of wins here on turf debut and is entered in the 200 guineas next month so will be looking for a big performance here. He's been in charge of both short price wins and pressed home by 1 horse both times but leaving the rest of the field by 11 lengths and 7 lengths in those 2 1m wins. CIRCUS OF ROME who he beat at Lingfield in December has won a similar class and distance race at the end of March and if transferring early AW form to turf then this Johnston trained colt should do the same.
14:05 2:05 Tramore
Qualimita
Daily Racing
300 WIN
@1.57
Lose
-300
QUALIMITA has shown enough in her RPRs to easily win this maiden. Bought for a whopping €500,000 2 seasons ago but not won anything for this yard yet. As mentioned, RPRs place her at least 10 above the rest and she'll be running 6lbs lighter than some rivals - should be a straight forward run.
13:55 1:55 Down Royal
Getaways Charm
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-100
GETAWAYS CHARM is my pick for this Irish maiden in her second run for the Gordon Elliot yard having impressed over 2m immediately upped in distance for this only 10 days later suggesting they've seen more for her over further and will hopefully produce here.
Subtotal-600
12 April 2025
15:45 3:45 Newbury
Crown Of Oaks
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-100
CROWN OF OAKS finished a respectable 3rd on debut 1 length behind a horse which beat NUTMEG by 2.5lengths last month. Based on that form and projected development for this horse on reappearance, I think he'll be well suited to the step up to the mile and better the competition.
15:12 3:12 Newbury
Cogitate
Daily Racing
50 EW
@10.00
Lose
-100
COGITATE is my EW pick for the OLBG Spring Cup as he has been drawn wide and won here on debut - reappearing here again my just light a spark for him and this is his second run since gelding so should be more focussed and able to win here. Charlie Hills has a win rate of 30% with his horses in the last 14 days and in his only run wince gelding finished 1length behind a top 114RPR winner so could push on from that here today.
14:35 2:35 Newbury
Rashabar
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.00
Lose
-50
RASHABAR currently holds an entry in the 2000 guineas at 33/1 whereas AL QUDRA holds the same entry and is at 100/1 which suggests in the big gap that RASHABAR should have the better of him today. Drawn on opposite sides may play a factor if winners are making it down the stand side which would favour this pick drawn highest.
14:00 2:00 Newbury
Bright Times Ahead
Daily Racing
50 EW
@8.00
Lose
-100
BRIGHT TIMES AHEAD only made debut in November but won that readily and holds a 1000 guineas entry based on those credentials. Today she will need to take a big step forward, but trainer Ralph Beckett has won this 5 times before so is in the best hands to do so. The draw has her away from the majority of the other shorter prices in this but will have the standside rail to her advantage which could help with the inexperience.
13:25 1:25 Newbury
Bellum Justum
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@3.25
Lose
-100
BELLUM JUSTUM is the only notable horse in the field to have won on reappearance last season and finished the season high with a big payout in Kentucky. Sired by SEA THE STARS, I expect that stamina and quality to be too strong for the French raider with all horses reappearing for the first time this season.
Subtotal-450
11 April 2025
16:10 4:10 Newbury
Charging Thunder
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-100
CHARGING THUNDER is one of 2 horses with entries in the Chester Cup later this year - he is currently at 14/1 whereas MOON OVER MIAMI is at 20/1. This gelding has won 4 of his last 5 races (2 on turf, 2 over hurdles) and all of them since switching trainer to James Owen who has a recent win rate of 30% in the last 14 days. James Doyle also takes the ride and has been on fire for the last 14 days winning 9/20 rides so all signs point positively here.
15:37 3:37 Newbury
Saddadd
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-100
SADDADD is one of 3 horses in this race with entries in The Derby and good form so far over a mile. Interestingly, this one is priced at 50/1 currently with FALCONER and GETHIN both priced at 66/1. Although GETHIN won by 6 lengths last time out, he didn't beat much at all and was in very wet conditions which will be different from today. The same applies for Falconer who won on soft and beat 85 rated horses. SADDADD is the only one to reappear from winning on debut (where he beat a now 90 rated horse comfortably) and finished a respectable 3rd when not having a clear run and the winner that day being a class above and 107 rated. I think this reappearance could allow a positive step forward in this event and give SADDADD the edge over his opponents today.
15:03 3:03 Newbury
Queen Of Thieves
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@2.88
Lose
-100
QUEEN OF THIEVES is a full sister to CRACKSMAN who went on to win 8/11 races and nearly £3m in prize money for this yard and owner. Gosden will be well aware of the connection having trained her sister throughout, so will undoubtedly have put in a lot of work to improve for this run.
14:27 2:27 Newbury
Cajole
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@3.75
Lose
-100
CAJOLE is one of two interesting Cheveley Park prospects making debut today. The reason I'm siding with the Gosden trained filly in this is due to the dam being an impressive group 1 winner rated 118 and also trained by Gosden and bred by Cheveley. Comparatively, the dam for CONSECRATED is unraced and has a weaker damsire pedigree, so I'm hoping the class will run through and allow CAJOLE to win on debut just like her mother did in 2015.
13:52 1:52 Newbury
Vinciamo
Daily Racing
50 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 10.00 used instead of 8.50 takenBOG
@10.00
Win
40
VINCIAMO is my ew pick for this 2yo maiden stakes as it's bred by SHOWCASING who is one of the leading sires for sprinters and Oisin Murphy taking the ride is also worth a note. Other newcomers in this event don't have as attractive pedigree, but it may be too soon to tell on debut for this March foal, so an ew bet is probably best in this race.
Subtotal-360
10 April 2025
19:30 7:30 Newcastle
Bow Street
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-100
BOW STREET is the only horse with consistent form over this trip and course - the last time he ran here in this class he won with a higher RPR than any of these can produce and at a similar price in the betting as today (5/1 winner that day). Daniel Muscutt is fantastic on this surface and has won 20% of his races in the last 14 days so will be looking to strike again today!
17:30 5:30 Newcastle
Bruce Banner
Daily Racing
100 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 1.83 used instead of 1.62 takenBOG
@1.83
Win
83
BRUCE BANNER makes debut for new yard in an incredibly weak field. There is no horse who has struck even a 50 RPR in their last race, whereas this one was rated at 60. There is also no other horse who has experience at this distance, whereas this one has won at 1m 4f 2 races ago. There's not much value at all in it, but it should be fairly nailed on to win.
14:17 2:17 Limerick
Janes Harbour
Daily Racing
100 WINNB
@1.73
Lose
-100
JANES HARBOUR is the only McManus horse running today and is also Mark Walsh's only ride today (who has a win rate of 27% in the last 14 days). This Camelot filly is by far the most experienced for this maiden running in 4 hurdles previously with an RPR at least 7 higher than the next nearest. Hopefully that experience will show and cruise to win in this.
Subtotal-117
09 April 2025
15:05 3:05 Nottingham
Munsif
Daily Racing
100 WINNOTETip made at odds of 2.50 on 09/04 at 08:170.20 deduction for Cameron Highlander@4.33 withdrawn at 09:370.00 deduction for Fiery Dawn @51.000 withdrawn at 10:19R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 1.50 x (1-0.2) = 2.20
@2.20
Win
120
MUNSIF is a very interesting newcomer from the Varian yard and having Jim Cowley for his only ride of the day is also a statement! SEA OF KINGS is also an interesting pick and also sired by Sea The Stars, however Harry Eustace hasn't had a first time out winner in the last year whereas Varian has.
14:05 2:05 Nottingham
Storm Free
Daily Racing
100 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.75 used instead of 1.73 takenBOG
@2.75
Win
175
STORM FREE has run the most consistently at this distance and makes reappearance today with Tate and Doyle in fantastic form with both having an over 40% win rate for the last 14 days. Should face stiff competition from DAN TUCKER, and won't be sure of the ground, but I think the talent of this colt will outshine those problems.
Subtotal295
08 April 2025
20:30 8:30 Southwell
Platinum Crystal
Daily Racing
50 EW
@7.00
Lose
-100
PLATINUM CRYSTAL has had a run out this year already and showed improvement now running as a 3 year old. Last season she improved with every run and following that pattern could be well in the mix to win here.
19:00 7:00 Southwell
Eliza Bennet
Daily Racing
50 EW
@9.00
Lose
-100
ELIZA BENNET is yet to run this year but is better looking than most being a Kodiac filly and has top AW jockey Daniel Muscutt on board to boost. Daniel has a near 20% win rate in the last 14 days and this could be another close one here.
17:12 5:12 Pontefract
Partisan Hero
Daily Racing
100 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 3.25 used instead of 2.88 takenBOG
@3.25
Win
225
PARTISAN HERO will look to take advantage of the quick ground and lack of rivals' fitness to make all in this today. Having already run 3 times this year with front running tactics, I would expect to see Richard Kingscote (on a near 30% win rate over the last 3 days) deploy the same tactics here.
14:02 2:02 Pontefract
U Sure Do
Daily Racing
100 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-100
U SURE DO is my pick here in Pontefract. Tim Easterby is a top northern trainer and with this one close to home could go well with the odds on favourite carrying a penalty and being unexposed at this distance. This Kodiac gelding ran well in 2 last summer and produced his best first time out - if reproducing now gelded, this could easily be the best horse in the field.
Subtotal-75
Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.
