Venomspread3r

Remember When you're Winning you're never as good as you think you are & when you're losing you're never as bad as you think you are! Novice Horse racing tipster that enjoys trying to crack the riddle that is Irish Handicap racing. Always on the Lookout for bigger priced outsiders. No odds on Favourites here.

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Venomspread3r's Tips History

15 June 2025

14:30 2:30 Gowran Park

Kilgharrahs Love

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

I'm not quite sure why Thomas Cleary's 3-year-old filly Kilgharrahs Love is currently trading at 25/1, especially with the impending rainfall due here in County Kilkenny. This daughter of Dragon Pulse's best efforts came here on testing ground, finishing 4th here 53 days ago. The handicapper has shed 4 lbs. Trainer Thomas Cleary's record here is a modest 21.74% place strike rate over the past 5 years. Jockey Sean Davis was in the winner's enclosure this past week. At these odds, with the potential juice-filled ground and experience getting up this hill, I can't ignore.

1 member found this comment useful

14 June 2025

14:50 2:50 Downpatrick

Avandra

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@26.00

Void

Philip Rothwell’s 5-year-old mare AVANDRA drops in class into a contest that doesn’t look too deep and could be set to trouble the judge. This daughter of GETAWAY was only a neck off the frame 16 days ago at Limerick in a race that’s worked out well - the runner-up that day, BOSTON RAJJ (rated 105), bolted up by 9½ lengths just four days later at Sligo. Now 2 lbs lower, and with jockey Philomena Elvin taking off a further 7 lbs, she looks well treated. Elvin has a 50% place strike rate in Northern Ireland over the last five years and a 31.25% place rate over the past year. Her partnership with Rothwell also returns a solid 32.14% placing record in the last 12 months. Rain is expected tomorrow, but that shouldn’t pose a problem this Girl has kept on well both times she’s raced with ease underfoot. Cheekpieces go on for the first time, and with a current price of 25/1 and 5 places on offer, I’m happy to nail my colours to the mast. She looks a potential each-way player in a race of this magnitude.

1 member found this comment useful

14:15 2:15 Downpatrick

Reinado

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Void

I saw enough of Colm Murphy’s 5-year-old Gelding REINADO here at Downpatrick 22 days ago to at least give him a squeak again today. This charge was plugging away when hampered by a faller one from home and was then short of room against the rail when trying to get closer. This son of JET AWAY makes his handicap bow here and has the pedigree to handle the impending downpour. A slight drop back in trip looks a positive, as does the booking of jockey Gavin Brouder (claims 3 lbs), who holds a respectable 25.93% place strike rate over the past fortnight. It’s a decent, trappy affair here, but with 16/1 being offered, I’m happy to take a chance on this bottom-weighted charge.

1 member found this comment useful

13 June 2025

18:50 6:50 Fairyhouse

Hes Justagent

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

Paul Mulligan’s 5-year-old gelding HE'S JUSTAGENT is currently trading at 33/1 for what was a career-best effort finishing 7th (of 18) here 15 days ago after a 293-day absence, which I think is a solid return, and he’ll be entitled to that run. This son of GUSTAV KLIMT has been dropped 1lb for that effort and now gets the services of 7lb claimer Rory Mulligan, who takes the reins for his father. Mulligan should be at ease with his son’s record here at Fairyhouse, boasting a 50% place strike rate over the past year and 37.5% in the past month. The Racing Post have mentioned forecast rain, but there's conflicting information across various websites. It’s already hard enough to pick a winner, but the added uncertainty of weather makes it trickier. That’s the risk of checking the night before - waiting for the ground could mean missing out on a better price. Rambling aside, should the rain hold off, I’m happy enough to see how this lad performs with a pipe-opener under his belt and 8lbs lighter. At 33/1, I’d be disappointed not to have a little skin in the game.

17:25 5:25 Cork

Dunum

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Natalia Lupini’s 7-year-old gelding DUNUM catches my eye here as he returns to handicap company. This son of IVAWOOD was pitched into listed company at Naas (7f, Good) 26 days ago following a lengthy 275-day break and should strip much fitter for that run. When last seen in a handicap, this charge finished 3rd (of 16) at Galway (7f, Heavy) in much deeper company, beaten just one length off a mark of 101. He now arrives 6lbs lighter and returns to his last winning mark of 95. Jockey Wayne Lordan remains in the plate, which is a plus. He boasts a 38.30% place strike rate over the past month and a 32.84% place strike rate at Cork over the past five years. Trainer Lupini also enjoys her visits to Mallow, holding an impressive 20% win strike rate at the track over the past five years. Currently priced at 16/1, this ground-versatile runner shouldn’t, in my opinion, be so easily overlooked. Now fitter and back in handicap company on a good mark looks a fair each-way proposition and should give a good account of himself if returning to the form he showed last summer.

11 June 2025

19:20 7:20 Limerick

Celtic Druid

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

I've ended up with pie on my face more than once, but dare I say that Tom McCourt’s four-year-old gelding CELTIC DRUID could be inching a little closer to minor money here. He lines up fresh off his best run to date at Roscommon last month (7f, good), where he finished fifth in a first-time visor - which is retained today. This son of CHURCHILL is effectively 3lb out of the handicap, but the booking of talented jockey Robert Whearty, whose 3lb claim negates that discrepancy, could make all the difference. It could certainly help to have a more experienced rider in the saddle this time. Tom McCourt has a 25% place strike rate at Limerick over the last five years, and a return to the 7f trip - where he ran his best race in maiden company at Gowran Park - looks a positive move. The headgear remains on, and while CELTIC DRUID still has to prove himself, the signs of progress at Roscommon suggest he might not be far off. At 25/1, I'm happy to take a small, tentative play in the hope he can sneak into the frame in what doesn't look the deepest of contests.

1 member found this comment useful

10 June 2025

19:58 7:58 Sligo

Chapter Thirty

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Lose

-50

I’m certainly not suggesting that EOIN MCCARTHY’s 5-year-old mare CHAPTER THIRTY is a winner in the making, but she doesn’t look like a 40/1 shot either (in my humble opinion). Rome wasn’t built in a day (or so I’ve been told), and this daughter of JUKEBOX JURY, while not setting the world alight, has shown steady improvement in each of her handicap runs, progressing by at least 10 lengths each time. In fairness, had she not jumped the second last like a bag of hammers, she would’ve finished closer at Limerick 12 days ago. She’s been dropped 3lbs for that run and, this time, could benefit from the services of a 7lb claimer in the form of Calum Hogan. From a pedigree standpoint, this is the right trip and going for her, and with a career best coming at Tipperary (a left-handed, sharp track) in a maiden contest where she was staying on, this course could play to her strengths. The 40/1 price tag is certainly inviting - though I doubt I’d feel the same if she were going off at 10/1 - but I’m happy to play small in the hope she continues to progress, running near bottom weight.

18:58 6:58 Sligo

Tea It Is

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@21.00

Win

TEA IT IS is an 8-year-old gelding trained by Denis Hogan, who has been lightly raced in recent years. His most recent performance at Limerick, just 12 days ago, was particularly encouraging, as he appeared much fitter compared to his previous outing after a lengthy 623-day absence. The son of the talented sire ALKAASED, a Group 1 winner, should benefit from the drop in trip, but it's the return to a sharper, more familiar track that truly catches the eye. His best runs have consistently come at tracks like Sligo, where he most recently finished 3rd, just 1¾ lengths behind the winner, off a mark of 89 - 18lbs higher than his current rating. The addition of Gary Noonan aboard is another factor in his favour, with the jockey’s 5lb claim taking some weight off his back. The yard seems to be coming to form as well, with Hogan posting a solid 20% win strike rate over the last month. Given his improving fitness, course form, and the support of a capable jockey, TEA IT IS looks an appealing 20/1 shot, with a strong chance of hitting the frame.

09 June 2025

20:08 8:08 Roscommon

Great Rainbow

Daily Racing

25 EW

@23.00

Lose

-50

Brian McMahon's 7-year-old gelding, GREAT RAINBOW, may not look like an obvious candidate on paper, but I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt for his debut over fences 18 days ago at Limerick, especially after a 230-day absence. Pedigree-wise, this son of GREAT PRETENDER should be well-suited to both the tough weather and the staying distance. He looked to be staying on well in similar conditions at Ballinrobe (22f) when last seen on heavy ground. There are a couple of other positive factors. First, the trainer’s recent form, with an impressive 71.43% place strike rate over the past fortnight, alongside a respectable 26.67% place strike rate here at Roscommon over the last five years. Secondly, while jockey Stephen Connor is still classed as inexperienced, he’s in good form, with a 75% place strike rate over the past month and a perfect 100% place strike rate at Roscommon from his two previous rides. I wouldn’t rush to the bookies, but I’m happy to have a small tentative poke, Given the conditions, trainer, and jockey form, I think he has a sniff.

19:38 7:38 Roscommon

Donkey Years

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

This year’s Connacht National looks intriguing, especially with the rain expected to hit the turf in County Roscommon tomorrow. One horse I’m keen to back is Eric McNamara’s 11-year-old veteran, DONKEY YEARS. While he wasn’t terrible in the competitive Killarney National last month, he plugged on steadily over 26f. This son of ROBIN DES CHAMPS drops 1lb for that effort and gets a further 5lb relief thanks to jockey Gary Noonan, who has been in solid form with a 20% place strike rate over the past month. Noonan also boasts a respectable 36.36% place strike rate over the past five years at this track. McNamara, the trainer, has a 26.09% place strike rate recently. As mentioned, the expected rain should suit this old boy down to the ground, with his best form on ground ranging from yielding to downright swampy conditions. The significant drop in class is another positive. This Old Boy is now 6lbs lighter than his last win over fences and, when factoring in the jockey’s claim, he’s on the same winning mark over hurdles. At 16/1, I think he offers a little hope, enough at least to have a little skin in the game.

08 June 2025

16:20 4:20 Punchestown

Coral River

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Thomas Mullins’ 6-year-old gelding CORAL RIVER makes his handicap bow here after a respectable run 39 days ago at the Punchestown Festival in what was undeniably deep company. At one stage, this son of OL' MAN RIVER looked completely outpaced and in trouble, but he dug deep, showed a ton of grit, and rallied strongly finishing third - staying on gamely when others faltered. That run was full of promise, and now he takes a notable drop in class. He does carry top weight, but that burden is significantly eased by the 7lb claim of jockey Anna McGuinness, who is riding well with a 44% place strike rate over the past fortnight. That could be a crucial advantage, particularly in a field where very few look progressive. This is also trainer Thomas Mullins’ only runner on the card, which may indicate some degree of confidence. The trip today is a bit of an unknown, but based on his staying effort last time out, it shouldn't be a negative. At odds of 18/1, there's definite each-way appeal. With the form in the book and a strong jockey claim, this looks worth a nibble in what could be a much easier task.

1 member found this comment useful

07 June 2025

16:45 4:45 Punchestown

Rideau Canal

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 34.00 on 06/06 at 20:230.10 deduction for Lummi Island@8.50 withdrawn at 09:210.00 deduction for Ashlia Dancer @12.000 withdrawn at 10:330.00 deduction for Story Rory @51.000 withdrawn at 11:110.00 deduction for Godblessyourosie @34.000 withdrawn at 11:11R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 33.00 x (1-0.1) = 30.70

@30.70

Win

123

I’ve bored anyone who’ll listen with my ramblings about how hard it is to pick a winner - never mind trying to preempt the weather, or more precisely, how much rain actually seeps into the ground. That said, the forecast says it’s raining overnight and for a good chunk of tomorrow in County Kildare, which could turn this good/yielding ground soft. And if that happens, I’d give a tentative shout to Denise Foster’s 10-year-old gelding, RIDEAU CANAL. This lad has shown only snippets of form - three places from 15 starts - but all have come on soft ground. He kept on well for third at both Fairyhouse (20f) and Sligo (21f), the latter off a mark of 88. He lines up here today 11lbs lower. That Sligo run came last August, and hasn’t had preferred conditions since. Foster has a 25% place strike rate here the past five years. Jockey Kevin Sexton mirrors that strike rate, and you’d be in profit if you’d backed all his rides here blindly over the same period. If it rains and turns soft - maybe, we’ve got a squeak. If it doesn’t? Run away. Don’t back him, not even with stolen money.

1 member found this comment useful

15:15 3:15 Navan

Nouvel Espoir

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@21.00

Win

James Barcoe sends out his 5-year-old gelding NOUVEL ESPOIR just three days after a run at the Curragh in much deeper company. That came after a 235-day layoff and over a trip that was never going to suit - so it’s fair to assume it was a prep. This son of HARRY ANGEL loves the minimum trip and loves County Meath even more, boasting a 75% place strike rate here. He now runs off his last winning mark of 65, but the real swing could be the booking of 10lb claimer Shay Wallace, who takes a hefty chunk off his back. That effectively puts NOUVEL ESPOIR 10lbs well in, returning to a track and trip he clearly enjoys. Barcoe’s record here is solid too - 25.81% place strike rate over the last five years - and this is the lowest class he’s contested since his last win. Where was that win? Right here. At current odds of 20/1, it’s the kind of speculative punt that could either look inspired or end in flames. But with the class drop, favourable mark, and Wallace booked, I’m happy to roll the dice. If it goes wrong… well, wouldn’t be the first time I’ve backed a dream.

2 members found this comment useful

14:20 2:20 Punchestown

Friends N Commerce

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

I genuinely feel there could be a race to be won with Paddy Kelly’s 9-year-old gelding FRIENDS N COMMERCE. I know it’s a bold statement, given this son of SHOLOKHOV is still a maiden after 23 runs - but if he is to break that duck, it won’t be on good ground. With rain forecast, conditions could finally fall in his favour. He’s placed twice at Punchestown from four runs and was only a length off the winner over this trip on yielding ground - off a hurdle mark of 109. He runs today over fences off 104, so he’s 5lbs better in. That could be significant. The booking of UK-based jockey Aaron Anderson is intriguing. He’s over for just two rides??"both for this yard - and claims a useful 5lbs. He’s hit the frame with 28.57% of his rides in the past fortnight. The trainer has a solid 33.33% place strike rate here over the past five years. If more rain arrives, it’ll only help. At a current price of 20/1, I’m happy to have some skin in the game. It could go wrong, sure - but there’s just enough in the profile to justify a small, hopeful punt.

1 member found this comment useful

06 June 2025

19:20 7:20 Clonmel

Kells Priory

Daily Racing

25 EW

@23.00

Lose

-50

Louise Lyon's 8-year-old gelding KELLS PRIORY cannot be overlooked, especially off a mark of 102 - his last winning rating. This trip is where the son of VALIRAAN excels, with all but one of his best performances coming over this distance. His versatility on ground conditions is another advantage. While this lad lacks experience on Clonmel's tough uphill finish, he does boast victories and placings on similar tracks, including Gowran Park, Roscommon, and Galway, which highlights his ability to dig deep and find the line. Another significant plus is the booking of jockey Kieran Callaghan, who claims 5lbs. Callaghan has an impressive 45.45% place strike rate at Clonmel over the past five years, and a 66.67% place strike rate in the past fortnight. This drop in class, combined with the gelding returning to his last winning mark, makes him hard to ignore - especially at odds of 22/1.

05 June 2025

20:05 8:05 Leopardstown

Widely Acclaimed

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

I wasn’t planning to get involved in this contest, but a good friend & fellow tipster had me take a second look - and from a price perspective alone, WIDELY ACCLAIMED looks far too tempting to ignore at current odds of 20/1. This 3-year-old colt, trained by Ado McGuinness, was only a length behind MOONHALL LASS - today’s shorter-priced rival - just 24 days ago at Roscommon (7½f, Good), where the latter was backed into favouritism. A Son of ACLAIM, WIDELY ACCLAIMED finished a staying-on 5th that day and now drops 3lbs in the weights, which could prove key. He steps up slightly in trip here, and that move looks a positive on the back of his closing effort last time out. McGuinness might have only the one recent winner, but he boasts an impressive 38.89% strike rate for runners hitting the frame in the past fortnight. Retained rider Adam Caffrey - who knows this horse well - has a solid 30.77% place strike rate for the yard over the past year. Given the form lines, weight drop, and encouraging trainer/jockey stats, I’d be kicking myself if I didn’t have at least a small play at these odds.

1 member found this comment useful

04 June 2025

20:30 8:30 Curragh

Kwa Herini

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 17.00 on 03/06 at 20:220.15 deduction for White Clover@5.50 withdrawn at 10:310.10 deduction for Dynamic Force @10.000 withdrawn at 10:33R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 16.00 x (1-0.25) = 13.00

@13.00

Win

A midweek barnburner at the Curragh - what’s not to like about a 25-runner free-for-all? I love it. One that does catch the eye is Kevin Coleman’s fairly unexposed (on turf) four-year-old British filly KWA HERINI. She outran her odds on turf debut here at the Curragh over 6f (good) back in April. This daughter of BLUE POINT didn’t quite kick on in last month’s follow-up under similar conditions off a mark of 66, but she now drops 4lbs and gets what I’d call a pilot upgrade in the shape of Luke McAteer. McAteer arrives here with a 43.48% place strike rate over the past fortnight (30.23% over the past month), and I always like my charges drawn high in these cavalry charges - stall #19 looks just fine. If KWA HERINI can reproduce anything close to her penultimate effort, arriving here 4lbs lighter, then completely ruling her out would be foolhardy. Six Places on offer with more than enough to get involved. Lightly raced, a touch of upside, decent draw, and a jockey in form - it ticks a few boxes. I’m in.

1 member found this comment useful

02 June 2025

15:05 3:05 Listowel

Katherine

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 17.00 on 01/06 at 22:310.00 deduction for Sidiriya@41.00 withdrawn at 09:550.00 deduction for Classy Cc @21.000 withdrawn at 09:550.25 deduction for Lilian Bland @3.750 withdrawn at 10:11R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 16.00 x (1-0.25) = 13.00

@13.00

Win

Adrian Sexton’s 8-year-old mare KATHERINE caught my eye six days ago at Ballinrobe. She was making up ground from off the pace, looking to be playing her hand perfectly, only to be denied room two from home. Despite this, the daughter of SHIROCCO kept plugging away valiantly to finish 5th. She drops in class here and sheds 1lb, which is a positive, but the real standout (at least for me) is the quick turnaround of just six days. KATHERINE has done this only twice in her 38 career runs, winning one of those as recently as October last year, returning after just five days at Kilbeggan (16f, Good). Jockey Sam Ewing remains in the saddle and brings a solid 32.43% place strike rate over the past month, along with a 29.55% place strike rate here in County Kerry over the last five years. The yard is taking a gamble, and I’m right there with them.

1 member found this comment useful

14:07 2:07 Gowran Park

Daymer Bay

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@26.00

Void

Ciaran Murphy's 4-year-old gelding DAYMER BAY is quickly readied for battle again, just 3 days removed from an improving run north of the border at Down Royal, where he showed a lot more fitness than his penultimate run here at Gowran Park. That performance came after a 219-day sabbatical, so I’m happy enough to put a line through it. This son of EXPERT EYE takes a drop in class here and gets 7lbs shaved off thanks to jockey Jimmy Dalton. Trainer Ciaran Murphy has a 26.19% place strike rate when turning out his charges so quickly. The draw in stall #5 is no bad thing, and the current odds of 25/1 are appealing. The drop in class and weight ‘could’ see this charge get a bit closer.

1 member found this comment useful

01 June 2025

15:17 3:17 Kilbeggan

Johannasjean

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@13.00

Win

Thomas Coyle's 6-year-old mare JOHANNA'S JEAN ran respectably enough on her handicap debut 37 days ago, finishing 6th (of 15). She is dropped 2 lbs for that effort to a mark of 91 and gets another 3 lbs shaved off thanks to the jockey booking of Conor Stone-Walsh, who is very good value for his claim and arrives here in fine fettle with a 42.86% place strike rate over the past fortnight. Trainer Thomas Coyle has a 50% place strike rate with his second-time-out handicappers, as well as a 25% place strike rate here in County Westmeath over the past five years. This daughter of DIAMOND BOY shouldn’t worry about the step up in trip, and with an extra 5lb pull, could take another step forward here.

1 member found this comment useful

15:07 3:07 Listowel

Linger For Longer

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Augustine Leahy's six-year-old mare LINGER FOR LONGER is certainly better than what she showed 27 days ago in a competitive fixture at the Curragh. That was her first appearance in some 216 days off the track, so personally, I'm happy to put a line through that run. This daughter of FULBRIGHT is now 4lbs below her last winning mark of 71. She is very ground-compatible - having won on soft ground at Tipperary, then following up with a win on good ground at Limerick - with this trip also to her liking. Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle, who has ridden this mare to victory twice, gets another chance to add to that tally this afternoon. His 58.33% place strike rate here at Listowel over the past year is a big confidence boost. There’s lots to like here at a price, for a charge that should (and could) strip fitter now, off a dangerous-looking mark. Certainly not one to overlook so easily.

1 member found this comment useful

31 May 2025

19:15 7:15 Tramore

Surviving Murmansk

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 23.00 on 31/05 at 11:320.10 deduction for Torquay Road@9.00 withdrawn at 17:33R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 22.00 x (1-0.10) = 20.80

@20.80

Win

I backed James Barcoe’s 7-year-old gelding SURVIVING MURMANSK on his penultimate start here at Tramore last month, hoping he could repeat his only snippet of form shown at this track in 2023. To be fair, he ran okay - finishing fourth and probably would have gotten closer had he not blundered two out. I was surprised to see him sent over the tall timber at Limerick just nine days ago. I’m certainly not a trainer with the experience of James Barcoe, but I’m sure he had his reasons. Back over hurdles at what seems a bit of a niche track for this maiden looks more positive, as does the 3lb drop and the booking of jockey Sean O'Keeffe, who was also aboard for that penultimate run. Lots to like, right? I’ll be honest - the ground doesn’t have me too enthused. It’s only the 'yielding' part of the current 'good/yielding' going, that is keeping me here. That and the current 22/1 odds (I wouldn’t be taking any less). The trainer has a solid record here (29.41% place rate over five years), and the jockey's not far off (20.72%, with 26.32% place in the past month). Tentative each-way.

16:48 4:48 Listowel

Rewrite The Script

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

I think a case can be made for Matt Daly’s 8-year-old gelding REWRITE THE SCRIPT, who should (or could) strip fitter for his run 17 days ago when returning from a 294-day sabbatical at Tipperary (25f, Good/Yielding). If we look back at his last run over hurdles, we see a fair effort when finishing 5th at Kilbeggan (24f, Good/Yielding). Yes, this son of MAHLER was beaten 31 lengths, but the runner-up that day was still 26 lengths behind the winner - so in retrospect, REWRITE THE SCRIPT wasn’t far off the prize money. That run came off a mark of 80, and he now arrives here off 72. An extra 7lbs claimed by jockey Calum Hogan certainly won’t hurt this bottom-weighted charge. The drop back in trip to just under 3 miles (23½f) also looks a sensible move. At current odds of 18/1, I’d say a small each-way play wouldn’t do any harm. If he can build on that comeback effort and enjoys conditions, there’s every chance he could go well. Not one to throw the mortgage at, but he’s not without hope.

15:40 3:40 Listowel

Party Pack

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Lose

-50

You can never underestimate a John Flavin trained charge, and while his 7-year-old gelding PARTY PACK wouldn’t inspire confidence on recent form (9P0F-P), this son of WELL CHOSEN wasn’t running badly on his penultimate start at Down Royal (22f, Good) last month - he was bang there three out before falling. He was then pitched in over fences again at Downpatrick, where he was pulled up. It’s no surprise the trainer now returns to hurdles. Faster ground appears to suit, and his pedigree supports that. The yard had a winner yesterday at Tramore, which is encouraging, and the booking of jockey Liam McKenna also catches the eye. He takes off 5lbs, bringing PARTY PACK down to a career-low mark of 80. McKenna also has a 30% place strike rate at Listowel over the past five years. Would I back this at 10/1? Not a chance. But at current 40/1 odds, I’m happy to have a little faith based on his Down Royal run. Returning to hurdles looks the logical move - but in this game, logic often means little. A risky proposition, yes - but at the price, it might just be worth a very small each-way play.

30 May 2025

19:20 7:20 Tramore

Ag Obair Go Crua

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

I'll be honest??"I'm looking for a BIG-priced potential improver here, and while trainer John Flavin's 6-year-old gelding AG OBAIR GO CRUA has shown some progress, the bar was low considering he pulled up on his previous two runs. Both were on soft ground, though, so we’ll (grudgingly) forgive. Back from a 118-day break 16 days ago at Tipperary (25f, good), this son of MAHLER finished 11th, but around the 21??"22f mark he wasn’t completely tailed off. So, this drop back to 21¾f might just be more his thing. He’s now 10lbs down from his first handicap run, including today’s 3lb dip??"which doesn’t hurt. The one real positive? The booking of top pro Darragh O’Keeffe. That’s a major upgrade (and I say that as a Tiernan Power Roche fan). O’Keeffe arrives in red-hot form??"21.62% win and 42.54% place strike rate over the past fortnight, with a 32.46% place strike here at Tramore over the last five years. Even better? A 50% place rate when riding for Flavin in the past year, and Flavin himself has a tidy 40% place strike at Tramore. This should really be a watching brief??"but if you're joining me, check if your bookie accepts payment in buttons.

18:33 6:33 Down Royal

Bamako

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 23.00 on 29/05 at 23:100.10 deduction for Kilgharrahs Love@10.00 withdrawn at 09:150.00 deduction for Ms Olivia @15.000 withdrawn at 11:050.00 deduction for Esque Elegance @29.000 withdrawn at 11:05R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 22.00 x (1-0.1) = 20.80Best Odds Guaranteed SP 29.00 used instead of 20.80 BOG

@29.00

Win

115

At a price here (22/1), Andy Oliver's 3-year-old gelding BAMAKO could surprise. Yes, I'm well aware this son of SANDS OF MALI finished dead last 20 days ago at Naas, but that effort came off a 218-day sabbatical and looked far too sharp over the minimum trip (5f). He should, and could, strip much fitter for that run. If we look back at the only time this charge ran over today’s trip on turf, we see a respectable 5th place finish - beaten just 3¾ lengths - right here in County Down last June. Today represents a drop in class and he’s partnered with a top pilot in the shape of Gary Carroll. The yard is performing well, boasting a 43.75% place strike rate over the past fortnight. A first-time visor is fitted too, which could sharpen him up further. Should this charge benefit from last time out’s pipe-opener and given his prior experience over this trip and uphill finish, I’m happy to take a punt.

17:58 5:58 Down Royal

Distillate

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@15.00

Void

Should Ado McGuinness’s 5-year-old mare DISTILLATE get into this contest from the substitutes bench (2nd reserve, effectively 1st now), I wouldn’t be quick to dismiss her chances here in Northern Ireland. She’s shown a fair liking for this track, hitting the frame 3 times from 7 runs, giving her a 42.86% place strike rate. Two of those efforts came over this 7f trip on good ground, both off marks of 66 - so today’s mark of 57 could see this daughter of HAVANA GREY very well treated. Her latest outing at Gowran Park 9 days ago can be forgiven, as she was badly hampered early and never got going. Before that, she posted two solid runs in stronger company at the Curragh over 6f (both on good ground), beaten just 1½ and 3½ lengths off a mark of 62 while keeping on well. Although the yard hasn’t hit peak form just yet, McGuinness still holds a solid 25% place strike rate at Down Royal over the last five years. With experience up this hill and conditions likely to suit, I’m more than happy to nail my colours to the mast and side with this mare if she gets a run.

29 May 2025

18:57 6:57 Fairyhouse

Happy Henry

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

It’s been a nightmare trying to keep up with the weather this past week, but I’m almost certain we’re in for a deterioration in the going with the forecast of heavy overnight rain here in County Meath. That, in my humble opinion, wouldn’t do the chances of the unexposed four-year-old filly HAPPY HENRY any harm. Trained by Willie McCreery, she made her turf debut 36 days ago at Gowran Park over 7f on heavy ground. While finishing 7th of 15 and beaten 5¼ lengths, she actually shaped quite nicely travelling well one furlong out before fading late. This daughter of BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE has been dropped 3lbs since that run and is knocked back to 6f here, which looks a positive move. A big plus is that top jockey Billy Lee retains the ride. He knows his way around Fairyhouse, boasting a 21.05% win strike rate at the track over the past year. He also has a 30.17% place strike rate when teaming up with this trainer in the same period. Should the ground soften further, I certainly wouldn’t be discounting this unexposed filly dropped back in trip. Conditions might just tilt things in her favour.

18:42 6:42 Limerick

Ballykinlar

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@21.00

Void

There isn’t an awful lot to latch onto at the prices here, but one that has caught my eye is trainer Donncha Duggan’s six-year-old gelding BALLYKINLAR. There are a few reasons for interest. Firstly, we see this charge making his handicap bow on completely different ground than he’s encountered in his maiden and bumper runs. Being a son of IRISH WELLS, he should relish the faster surface expected today at Limerick. Secondly, it’s worth noting that this lad has contested stronger maiden races than he faces here, which may explain why the handicapper has allotted him a relatively high mark for a newcomer to handicaps. That experience might just prove valuable in this lesser field. Most interestingly, Duggan holds a 100% strike rate in handicaps granted, from just one runner - but it hints that the yard doesn’t waste these opportunities lightly. At 20/1, I’m happy to take a tentative each-way stab. The market may be underestimating him, and if the ground brings about improvement, he could outrun those odds. Certainly not a stake your mortgage kind of punt but enough to prick my interest.

28 May 2025

18:00 6:00 Wexford

Pension Plan

Daily Racing

25 EW

@51.00

Lose

-50

You’ll need to look past the glaring 0000-0 formline staring back at you from tomorrow’s Racing Post or The Irish Field to even consider backing Paul Flynn’s 5-year-old gelding PENSION PLAN. And yes, on that basis, 50/1 looks about right. But this son of YEATS actually showed a flicker of promise on handicap debut at Sligo (20f, Good). He led from flag fall and only gave way two out - hardly the stuff of total dismissal. Now he drops 3 furlongs in trip and 3lbs in the weights, switching to a sharp, flat, left-handed track which, on paper at least, looks more in his favour. A quick glance into his bloodlines even suggests a preference for going left-handed, adding a touch more interest. Jockey Gavin Brouder keeps the ride and takes a valuable 3lbs off. He’s shown a solid return at Wexford over the past five years with a 30% place strike rate. Trainer Paul Flynn echoes that with a 33% place record at the track and a notable 25% strike rate with his second-time-out handicappers. So if you’re willing to look beyond the surface gloom, there’s just enough to justify an each-way nibble at that whopping 50/1.

27 May 2025

20:00 8:00 Ballinrobe

Weather Alert

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

I won’t be able to live with myself if I don’t scratch the brain itch that’s lingered since I first glanced at this contest - namely, Thomas Mullins’ potentially well-treated 9-year-old gelding, the aptly named WEATHER ALERT. I can’t completely dismiss this son of GALE FORCE TEN until I’ve seen him run on softer ground, which he could finally get with rain forecast in County Mayo today. His Clonmel run (19f, Good) last time wasn’t spectacular, but it was a 9-length improvement on his previous effort - and he might’ve finished closer had he not jumped the last like a bag of hammers. Still, he was backed into 4/1. The booking of in-form jockey Conor Stone-Walsh is a plus; his 3lb claim, added to the 3lb drop from the handicapper, gives us a useful 6lb swing. This is a step up in trip but this lads best runs have come on testing ground - notably at Listowel (14f, Soft/Heavy) and Thurles (16f, Soft). At 25/1, with trip questions but potential for eased conditions, the price is right. Curiosity’s been nagging at me long enough - I’ll take the swing and see what the storm blows in.

19:30 7:30 Ballinrobe

Gordons Aura

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

William Delahunty’s 6-year-old gelding GORDANS AURA went straight into the old notebook 11 days ago at Kilbeggan (16f, Good), where I noted that this son of GOLDEN HORN looked to be going well five from home before losing concentration with a bad jump. He did try to recover, but the damage was already done. This lad now drops another 2lbs, bringing him 7lbs below his last winning mark for previous trainer Gordon Elliott. Perhaps the real ace up his sleeve could be the forecast rain, which might ease the current good ground - a key factor, as all his better form has come with a bit of cut. John Shinnick remains in the saddle, which is never a bad thing. He takes off a handy 3lbs and also boasts a solid 37.93% place strike rate at this track over the past five years. I’ve got to put some faith in the tracker here. If the rain arrives and he can get a clear round of jumping, I don’t see why this charge couldn’t take a step forward. At current odds of 20/1, he looks more than workable and could at the very least rattle the crossbar.

26 May 2025

18:30 6:30 Ballinrobe

Linden Arden

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Philip Fenton’s 7-year-old gelding LINDEN ARDEN is one to keep an eye on, especially if the weather delivers the bog-like conditions this Son of JET AWAY thrives in. He didn’t look out of his depth before falling 18 days ago at Tipperary (17f, Good/Yielding) a trip too sharp and ground not to his liking. A return to further looks a big plus, with his last win coming at Limerick (20f, Yielding/Soft) by 4 lengths, and a prior 5½-length success right here at Ballinrobe (23f, Soft). Brian Hayes retains the ride and has guided this charge to his best form, boasting a solid 38.89% place strike rate for the trainer in the past year. Fenton himself has a 21.43% place strike rate at Ballinrobe over the past five years. This is a step into deeper waters, but this lad has taken well to the tall timber, with two wins and a place from four starts. IF the rain arrives (all I seem to do is wish for rain lately) with proven form over this course and trip, he could well be a contender hiding in plain sight.

1 member found this comment useful

17:30 5:30 Ballinrobe

Moonovercloon

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

If Matthew Smith’s 8-year-old gelding MOONOVERCLOON didn’t have bad luck, he’d have none at all. This son of SEA MOON ran a big race in the Irish Grand National before falling and followed up with another strong showing in the Kerry National, traveling well before a mistake three out ended his chance. Now back over hurdles, he runs off a 6lb lower mark and gets a further 3lb off with talented claimer John Shinnick aboard, who has a 37.93% place strike rate here over the last five years. Smith himself boasts a 30% strike rate at this venue in that time, adding further confidence. Though still 13lb above his last win, this charge's form last summer is telling, going close at both Punchestown and Galway off marks of 126 and 129. Now effectively off 124 with the claim, he looks competitively treated. Ground versatile and clearly capable in strong fields, he remains a live contender despite a higher mark. At current odds of 14/1 with five places on offer, he’s a solid each-way hope. A return to the smaller obstacles could be just what he needs to finally get the rub of the green.

1 member found this comment useful

24 May 2025

16:50 4:50 Curragh

Plume Noire

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Win

100

Gerard Keane's newest lodger, 7-year-old Mare PLUME NOIRE, looks set to make her debut for her new yard and returns to action here off a 266-day break. In my humble opinion, that’s likely why she’s currently trading at 25/1. Others may lean toward her no-show here at the Curragh on her final start for previous trainer Brian Duffy - but I’m willing to give her a pass. She won at Naas last May off a similar 228-day layoff, so running fresh clearly isn’t an issue. This daughter of HARZAND can more than hold her own at this level - beaten just a head in a competitive Class 2 here last June, effectively running off today’s mark (82, factoring in the jockey’s claim). She now returns in calmer waters, partnered by in-form Jack Kearney (33% win, 58.3% place strike rate in the past fortnight), who takes off a handy 3lb. Trainer is also ticking along nicely with a 50% PSR. A slight concern is the forecasted rain around 4pm but how much of that seeps into the Kildare turf is anyone’s guess. Tipping horses is hard enough without trying my hand at meteorology. At these odds, I’ll take a stab.

1 member found this comment useful

16:15 4:15 Curragh

San Aer

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 51.00 on 24/05 at 10:130.10 deduction for Orandi@8.00 withdrawn at 11:03R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 50.00 x (1-0.10) = 46.00Best Odds Guaranteed SP 51.00 used instead of 46.00 BOG

@51.00

Win

225

I'm playing weatherman again here, and at the current price of 50/1, we need a few things to fall in our favour - mostly the weather. But let’s step away from things I can’t control for a second and focus on what has happened. For starters, in the last three renewals of this contest, no runner carrying over 8'10 has won ticked box number one. Second, being drawn wide has proven beneficial, with two of the last three winners emerging from wide ticked box number two. Now, back to the weather. IF (and I’ll say this more than once), IF the forecasted heavy afternoon showers are to be believed, and IF enough of it gets into the ground, then (and only then) would I give Thomas Mullin's 7-year-old gelding SAN AER a squeak. This son of VOCALISED ran a cracker in the Lincolnshire here in 2023, just a length off the winner from stall #19 on testing ground off a mark of 84. He lines up today off 77 when factoring in Wayne Hassett’s 5lb - who has 30.19% strike rate in Kildare over the past five years. Now I just need to figure out how to make it rain.

23 May 2025

20:25 8:25 Curragh

Auburn Avenue

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 13.00 on 22/05 at 22:560.00 deduction for Bucaneers Spirit@12.00 withdrawn at 08:230.10 deduction for Dark Viper @7.000 withdrawn at 10:590.00 deduction for Showhound @17.000 withdrawn at 18:27R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 12.00 x (1-0.1) = 11.80

@11.80

Win

A Friday night barnburner at the Curragh - what’s not to like? A wide-open 23-runner mile handicap, and while we’re not quite in “close your eyes and throw a dart” territory, it’s still fiercely competitive. That said, I’m sticking with Chris Timmons’ 4-year-old filly AUBURN AVENUE, who I tipped here 18 days ago (7f, Good). She didn’t get the smoothest of passages that day - checked a couple of times - but stayed on well to finish fifth, showing a willing attitude. This daughter of PHOENIX OF SPAIN has been dropped 3lbs for that effort and now gets a significant jockey upgrade. Chris Hayes takes over in the saddle and arrives here in fine form, with a 35.29% place strike rate over the past month and a strong 25.41% place rate at the Curragh over the past five years. There is a slight concern if the forecast early evening showers affect the going, but she didn’t disgrace herself on heavy going at Leopardstown (9f) last October. Now stepping up in trip, racing off a 13lb lower mark than her last Curragh outing in stronger company, and with a top rider booked, I’ll stay loyal and give this girl another chance.

19:25 7:25 Curragh

Daamberdiplomat

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

I’m willing to take a tentative poke here with Johnny Murtagh’s 5yr old gelding DAAMBERDIPLOMAT, who drops significantly in class after contesting a competitive Class 2 all-weather sprint (6f) at Newcastle 35 days ago (beaten 4¾ lengths). This son of COTAI GLORY has just one turf win to his name but hasn’t run badly at the Curragh - most notably finishing 4th on his last visit, just a head behind today’s rival COLLECTIVE POWER. Jockey Ben Coen returns to the saddle, having partnered DAAMBERDIPLOMAT to 2 of his 4 career wins. Coen is in solid form, with a 31.82% place strike rate over the past month and 23.92% here at the Curragh across five years. Even more encouraging is his 40.45% place strike rate for Murtagh in the past year - part of 8 recent wins for the yard in the past 30 days. So, why tentative? It’s no secret this charge prefers the all-weather, and the possible forecasted rain could compromise his chances - though one would assume the trainer would withdraw him if the ground goes against him. Still, at 20/1, 5 places and a big class drop, I’m happy to have a little skin in the game.

22 May 2025

17:23 5:23 Longchamp

Spezial

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Georges Nakouzi’s 4-year-old British filly SPEZIAL should welcome the return of juice in the turf here in Paris, after finding the ground far too quick on her last run 11 days ago. This daughter of INNS OF COURT ran a solid third (¾ length) at Saint-Cloud in March on heavy ground in this same grade, making a promising debut for previous trainer Alicia Karkosa. Her sole turf win (from 10 starts) came here at Longchamp over 6½f - again in this company - powering through the sludge to win by two lengths. It’s clear that soft ground is a positive with her. Jockey Benjamin Marie is in form, having ridden two winners in the past two days. The question mark is why she was sold on so quickly after just two runs, one of which was a solid effort on her preferred surface. I’m not privy to that, but at a current price of 16/1, I’m willing to take a swing on this proven mudlark getting her conditions.

17:05 5:05 Limerick

The Eye Of Tulla

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

Straight off the bat, Brian McMahon’s 9-year-old gelding THE EYE OF TULLA isn’t much to look at - you'd need a forgiving nature to admire him. But this son of WATAR is starting to look well-treated by the handicapper, who’s finally loosened the noose with a 7lb drop. That brings him within 2lbs of his dominant 8-length win here at Limerick (18f, Good) and 2lbs under the mark (with the jockey’s claim) for his Ballinrobe win (17f, Yielding), also by 8 lengths. Since then, he’s struggled to carry the extra burden (18lbs) but now looks poised to strike off a more workable mark. A return to Limerick is no bad thing - his only three runs here yielded finishes of 1st, 3rd, and 4th off marks of 75, 78, and 84. Jockey Ritchie Deegan is back in the saddle and arrives in fine fettle, with a 40% place strike rate over the past fortnight. Trainer Brian McMahon also boasts a solid 26.67% place strike at the track over the last five years. Clearly not without risk, but with 5 places on offer at a working man’s price (33/1), I’ll leave my fate at the edge of chance with this lad.

21 May 2025

18:50 6:50 Gowran Park

Gianh River

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

I'm not usually one to go back in on a horse after it's been hit with a few extra pounds - the value often disappears second time around - but at current odds of 20/1, I'm more than happy to side with Paul Fahey’s 5-year-old gelding GIANH RIVER. He left all previous form behind when finishing a career-best 2nd here at Gowran Park, over this very trip and on good ground. That effort looks even stronger when you factor in that jockey Jessica Gorman reported the saddle slipped in the dying strides, which likely explains why he was hanging slightly left late on. This son of TONKIN has been raised 4lbs for that run, which seems fair enough. Gorman keeps the ride and crucially claims a very handy 7lbs again. Plenty to like here at the price - and with a smoother round, he could go one better. I’m happy to have a punt and find out.

1 member found this comment useful

19 May 2025

18:10 6:10 Roscommon

River Derwent

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Let’s address the elephant in the room before I make my case for Thomas Coyle’s 7-year-old gelding RIVER DERWENT - yes, the slow starts. This son of KINGMAN has kicked me where it hurts numerous times. And I know what you’re thinking: “Why keep backing him?” Well, firstly, if you actually watch him, once he gets going, he tends to run his race quite well. Secondly & more importantly - this lad won this very race last year over today’s trip (7f), fluffed start and all, carrying 4lbs more, and also 7 days after his last run. His most recent effort here (yes, another tardy start) wasn’t dreadful. James Ryan had him travelling well and, to be fair, tried a few options but the lad was boxed in at every turn. (The perils of missing the break) Coyle has a 35.29% place rate at Roscommon over the past 5 years, with a 31.25% place rate alongside Ryan in the past year. So... can lightning strike twice? Maybe. The 4lb swing certainly helps. The price is tempting - and at this point, if this lad doesn’t go close, he owes me an apology... and possibly a contribution to my sanity fund.

17 May 2025

15:35 3:35 Wexford

Newport

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

Eoin Doyle's 5-year-old British gelding NEWPORT looks like he’s been crying out for a return to the minimum trip, which he gets today over 2 miles at Wexford. This son of STARSPANGLEDBANNER caught the eye on his handicap debut at Thurles (16f, Good) off a mark of 90 (now 87) finishing 6½ lengths behind the winner while staying on nicely. That winner, BRAVE TROOP, franked the form by scoring in deeper company next time out, and there were some decent, in-form horses behind - namely A NOD TO GETAWAY and MALBAS. Since then, he hasn’t looked at ease over longer distances - weakening late at Limerick and being pulled up at Bellewstown over 20 furlongs. The return to 2 miles should suit much better. A big plus is the rebooking of jockey Hugh Morgan, who rode him on handicap debut. Even more encouraging is Morgan’s strong record at Wexford, boasting a 40% place strike rate over the past five years. The trainer/jockey combination has also shown a profit from 47 runners over the past year. There’s a slight concern about how he handles the tight turns, but at 25/1, this charge looks worth a very small each-way play.

14:05 2:05 Navan

Little Mi Mi

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

Trainer Christy Donoghue's 4-year-old filly LITTLE MI MI, a daughter of DANDY MAN, was just 1 length behind John McConnell's STAN HOPE and half a length behind Paddy Magee's LISMACBRYAN HILL on her penultimate run here. I felt she could have finished closer that day - she was travelling well and ready to make a move a furlong from the lollypop but found herself boxed in, short of room. The aforementioned rivals are currently trading at 10/1 and 7/2 respectively, while our selection sits at a massive 33/1. Given there’s only about a length in it, that’s an incredible price differential (though I’m not complaining!) Her last run at Sligo can be forgiven; the tight turns didn’t suit her, and she couldn’t get into a rhythm. Today’s return to Navan - a track with a more forgiving, undulating straight - should be far more suitable. She showed promise here four runs ago when finishing second by 1½ lengths off a mark of 54 under today’s jockey Wesley Joyce, who is back on board. She runs 3lbs lighter this time. With decent ground and a positive jockey booking, I have to take a chance at this big price.

16 May 2025

18:13 6:13 Leopardstown

Rampage

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Tom McCourt's 6-year-old gelding RAMPAGE looks potentially very well treated on the evidence of his penultimate run here at Leopardstown (1m, Good) 30 days ago. The son of NEW BAY was just 2½ lengths off the winner in a deeper race than today’s, finishing a neck behind recent dual winners EXPOUND and NEO SMART. Now dropped another 2lb to a mark of 68, he looks primed to go close. While he’s only won twice on turf from 30 starts, he boasts a solid 43.33% overall place strike rate and a 50% place rate here at Leopardstown (4 from 8). Stall 19 is no gift, but RAMPAGE has shown he can handle wide draws winning from stall 18 here and placing from 14, with a third at the Curragh from out wide too. Jockey Alyse Clarke claims a valuable 7lb, further boosting his chances. Trainer Tom McCourt has a respectable 24.74% place strike rate at Leopardstown over the past five years. Now down the weights, back on quicker ground at a track he clearly likes, with five places on offer, I’m happy to let this charge carry my each-way coppers.

17:25 5:25 Kilbeggan

Godblessyourosie

Daily Racing

25 EW

@19.00

Lose

-50

This looks a prickly little affair for the grade, so I’m keen to side with something A) less exposed and B) a good price. Cian Collins’ 6-year-old mare GODBLESSYOUROSIE ticks both boxes. This daughter of LAURO returned from a 268-day break 29 days ago at Clonmel and didn’t shape badly at all. She looked to be throwing down a challenge around three furlongs out before fading late - no disgrace given the layoff. The pedigree suggests this drop in trip and the quicker ground should both suit. Jockey Jordan Gainford retains the ride and has been consistently hitting the frame over the past month with a 26.47% place strike rate. More notably, he boasts a 30% place strike rate here in County Westmeath over the past five years. Trainer Cian Collins isn’t far behind with a 28.57% place rate at the track and a modest but workable 21.05% place strike rate with handicap debutants. With that recent pipe-opener under her belt and improvement likely, GODBLESSYOUROSIE looks interesting at current odds of 18/1 and I'm more than happy to nail my colours to the mast each way in what looks a wide-open contest.

15 May 2025

18:18 6:18 Clonmel

Love Like This

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

John Ryan’s 7-year-old mare LOVE LIKE THIS can be forgiven for her last run 32 days ago at Down Royal, coming just two days after a solid second at Ballinrobe (beaten only 1½ lengths). Clearly, the trainer was aiming to get ahead of the handicapper, but a two-day turnaround is a big ask. As the old saying goes, “sometimes a break is as good as a change,” and this daughter of Ol' MAN RIVER may benefit from the freshening up she's already raced EIGHT times this year. This Mare has placed twice here at Clonmel as well as at Gowran Park, both on testing ground, but her best efforts have come on quicker going, notably at Thurles (22f) and Ballinrobe (21f). Jockey John Aherne takes off a handy 7lbs and was aboard for that encouraging Thurles run off today’s mark of 94. Trainer John Ryan has a solid recent record, with a 21.43% strike rate over the past fortnight and a 25.60% place strike rate at Clonmel. Given her course form, a liking for stiffer tracks, and now freshened up, this mare could go well. At current odds of 14/1, she looks a fair each-way punt.

1 member found this comment useful

14 May 2025

19:50 7:50 Tipperary

Barryroe Madam

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@17.00

Void

Brian McMahon’s 6-year-old French mare BARRYROE MADAM will need one to come out to get in from the 1st reserve spot, but should that happen, I wouldn't dismiss this daughter of KAPGARDE too quickly. Her last run also her best to date came 41 days ago at Naas (24f, Good/Yielding), where she threw down a serious challenge from off the pace to dispute the lead before falling at the last. The 1st and 2nd from that race have since run well off marks of 86 and 100. Ricky Doyle, in flying form with a 60% place strike rate the past fortnight, remains in the plate - a definite plus. Clare-based trainer Brian McMahon may not be a household name, but his small yard boasts a solid 26.32% place strike rate at Tipperary over the past five years. This French charge was sent off at 14/1 last time and is currently trading around 16/1 off the same mark. Some might question the switch from undulating Naas to the flat, sharp Tipperary, but she’s also placed at Galway -a similarly sharp track. If she puts in a clear round, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her bang there at the finish.

18:50 6:50 Tipperary

Spanish Maid

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

As always, I’m looking for a bigger price, and one that interests me is Fran Flood’s 7-year-old mare SPANISH MAID. This charge posted some solid efforts in maiden hurdle company, most notably a 3rd (beaten 2 lengths) here at Tipperary last May. That was followed by a 3rd & 4th at Sligo and 5th at Fairyhouse. This daughter of WORKFORCE was then sent over fences, taking on the likes of Zenta, Paggane, and Springt De La Mare - all of whom have progressed nicely since. The return to hurdles looks the right move. Despite her bloodline, her best run came here at Tipperary on yielding ground. Nearly all of her other runs (bar one) were on testing ground, so it’s interesting to see how she fares today on the current good/ yielding surface. Donagh Meyler retains the ride and has a respectable 20.97% place strike rate at Tipperary over the past five years. Trainer Fran Flood hasn’t had a winner since 2022, but a return to the scene of his mares best performance offers some hope. At current odds of 25/1 with 5 places on offer, I wouldn’t be putting the mortgage on her. but hitting the frame certainly isn’t impossible.

13 May 2025

18:50 6:50 Killarney

Say Youre Sorry

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Eammon O'Connell’s 7-year-old gelding SAY YOU'RE SORRY can be forgiven for the hoof rust 60 days ago at Dundalk (11f), and should/could strip fitter here after a 211-day break. This son of OCOVANGO has yet to shed his maiden tag, but it looked like the penny had started to drop in his last two runs - both on the all-weather - over today’s trip, finishing 4th twice (beaten 2 and 1¼ lengths) off a mark of 54. He arrives here at Killarney, where the left-handed, flat, and sharp characteristics of the track could potentially spark improvement from this lightly raced charge (and by "lightly raced" I’m, of course, referencing his turf record with only three starts to date). As a fellow tipster (and good friend) has already noted, this field is very exposed, and I’d also prefer to side with a higher-priced, less exposed contender. With 5lbs less to carry, a left-handed sharp track, and a pipe-opener now in the tank, I’m happy to take my chance. And who knows? If the equine gods are in a forgiving mood, they may just smile down on this one and maybe even on me.

18:30 6:30 Sligo

Highland Earl

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

It’s clear that Liam Cusack’s 5-year-old gelding HIGHLAND EARL needs to find a bit more, but hey - Rome wasn’t built in a day. To be fair, this son of HIGHLAND REEL has improved, cutting the gap by seven lengths from his handicap debut at Naas (16f, Good/Yielding) to finish 7th at Cork (16f, Yielding) just 22 days ago. To my admittedly untrained eye, it simply looks like he wants a bit further - which he gets today. He also drops 3lbs in the weights. Jockey Richie Deegan stays in the saddle and arrives here at Sligo in flying form, boasting a 55.56% place strike rate over the past fortnight (and 31.58% over the past month). Even more eye-catching, he has a 45.45% place strike rate at this very track over the past five years. Trainer Liam Cusack echoes that consistency with a 47.62% strike rate in Sligo during the same period. This gelding remains relatively unexposed and certainly has time on his side. At current odds of 33/1, I’m happy to be proven wrong about him needing further. With a strong trainer/jockey combo and signs of progress, it would be foolhardy to dismiss him entirely.

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